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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    May 245

    Not May 72

    ERG a legend only in their own liquid lunchtimes
  • I hope all Tory MPs are taking their own pens...we don't want a rerun of the Brexit vote ;-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    May 250
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Pulpstar said:

    May 250

    Is this an auction now?!
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    May 219
    No May 98
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    May 197
    Not May 118
  • The Hungarian government has passed a set of controversial laws amid scenes of chaos, as opposition MPs sounded sirens, blew whistles and angrily confronted the country’s rightwing prime minister.

    One of the new laws raises the amount of overtime employers can demand their employees work and has been labelled a “slave law” by critics. Another establishes new courts to consider government business with a greater role for the justice minister.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/hungary-passes-slave-law-prompting-fury-among-opposition-mps
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,469
    Spoilt ballots from May 'supporters' could make the margin closer than otherwise. Is anyone taking these into account?
  • Not May 130
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    We're a decimal culture. Over/Under 100 for non May votes and Over/Under 200 for May votes will be the psychological barriers however arbitrary they are. If the rebels score one she's in trouble, if the score both she's finished. If they score neither she gets a few days momentum before the routed ERGers turn to metaphorical terrorist tactics.

    Psychological barriers are irrelevant, as long as May wins she wins, she cannot be toppled before Brexit
  • Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1072927832727322624

    They've got somebody but is it Trump?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

    And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Betfair:

    90-109 band favourite, but 70-89 is 2nd fav.

    I think SPIN higher because more scope for upside than downside.
  • HYUFD said:

    We're a decimal culture. Over/Under 100 for non May votes and Over/Under 200 for May votes will be the psychological barriers however arbitrary they are. If the rebels score one she's in trouble, if the score both she's finished. If they score neither she gets a few days momentum before the routed ERGers turn to metaphorical terrorist tactics.

    Psychological barriers are irrelevant, as long as May wins she wins, she cannot be toppled before Brexit
    I disagree. That just isn't how politics in general or a parliamentary system works.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    For May: 162

    Against May: 153
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT:


    Cyclefree said:

    If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?

    Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?
    Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.

    There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
    The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.

    I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill. :(
    I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?

    Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK :+1:
    That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.

    I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......
    One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.
  • May 219
    No May 98

    That's what I'm expecting +/- 5 votes either way.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    GIN1138 said:

    For May: 162

    Against May: 153

    If it was going to be that close then I think the MPs would organise it so she loses, it's worse for her to be told to step down by the cabinet than to lose.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

    And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
    Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Surely the 10.5 currently on Betfair is value, for May to lose the vote?

    There’s got to be a dozen or two of the payroll vote who will voice their support in public, yet vote against in the privacy of the polling booth?
  • Not May 130

    An exaggeration similar to JackW's age on PB.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

    And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
    You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1072927832727322624

    I think we already knew Trump was no great respected of women before the last election anyway and with the Senate still GOP an impeachment is unlikely to succeed
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @Beverley_C FPT

    There are two fish in a tank

    One of them turns to the other and says “how do you drive this thing?”
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    We're a decimal culture. Over/Under 100 for non May votes and Over/Under 200 for May votes will be the psychological barriers however arbitrary they are. If the rebels score one she's in trouble, if the score both she's finished. If they score neither she gets a few days momentum before the routed ERGers turn to metaphorical terrorist tactics.

    Psychological barriers are irrelevant, as long as May wins she wins, she cannot be toppled before Brexit
    I disagree. That just isn't how politics in general or a parliamentary system works.
    This is the Maybot we are talking about, if she wins tonight that is it, she will go as programmed through past Brexit day and Tory MPs can no longer do a thing about it
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT:


    Cyclefree said:

    If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?

    Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?
    Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.

    There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
    The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.

    I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill. :(
    I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?

    Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK :+1:
    That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.

    I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......
    One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.
    When you get vets bills........

    Be thankful for the NHS.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,504
    Charles said:

    @Beverley_C FPT

    There are two fish in a tank

    One of them turns to the other and says “how do you drive this thing?”

    Sounds like JRM!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT:


    Cyclefree said:

    If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?

    Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?
    Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.

    There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
    The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.

    I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill. :(
    I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?

    Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK :+1:
    That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.

    I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......
    One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.
    Unfortunately, no really, orange guppy "Donald" has passed away.
  • TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Yep.
  • is it like a GE? Can you draw an obscenity in the box and still have it count?
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1072927832727322624

    They've got somebody but is it Trump?
    I'm sure his campaign finance violations will be prosecuted exactly as hard as Obama's were, right?

    Then again, the idea that the National Enquirer could influence anything, let alone a presidential election, is not entirely credible...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Will Michael Gove tweet his ballot ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited December 2018
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

    And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
    Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.

    According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval rating.

    Boris has the highest number saying he would be a good PM on 22%, Javid the highest net rating on -18%.

    Gove does worst on -41% followed by Hunt on -36%
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/12/who-could-succeed-theresa-may
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT:


    Cyclefree said:

    If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?

    Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?
    Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.

    There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
    The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.

    I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill. :(
    I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?

    Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK :+1:
    That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.

    I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......
    One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.
    Unfortunately, no really, orange guppy "Donald" has passed away.
    :(:-1:
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

    And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
    Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.

    According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval rating
    What was May's net figure the day Cameron resigned ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT:


    Cyclefree said:

    If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?

    Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?
    Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.

    There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
    The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.

    I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill. :(
    I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?

    Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK :+1:
    That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.

    I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......
    One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.
    When you get vets bills........

    Be thankful for the NHS.
    Our dog opted to save his £25 p.m. insurance premiums and fund his own medical bills.

    Five years on he was doing quite well but had to dip into them when he cut his paw a few months ago.

    I've told him once it's gone, it's gone. :wink:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited December 2018
    MaxPB said:

    GIN1138 said:

    For May: 162

    Against May: 153

    If it was going to be that close then I think the MPs would organise it so she loses, it's worse for her to be told to step down by the cabinet than to lose.
    My reasoning for such a close result is that ever since 23rd June 2016 the country has been split down the middle and I expect this leadership ballot will be pretty much a reflection of that (albeit in a different way)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

    And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
    Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.

    According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval rating
    What was May's net figure the day Cameron resigned ?
    May still clearly leads Corbyn as best PM, that would not be true for some alternatives
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

    And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
    Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.

    According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval rating
    What was May's net figure the day Cameron resigned ?
    May still clearly leads Corbyn as best PM, that would not be true for some alternatives
    Nicely avoided.
  • is it like a GE? Can you draw an obscenity in the box and still have it count?
    Interesting question. I don't know. True story - I was helping scrutinise contested ballot papers during a council recount once. Incumbent councillor was 24 votes behind. Returning Officer showed us a ballot paper with a perfectly drawn c*ck and balls complete with p*bic hair in the councillors box. Valid vote under ' voters intention is clear ' but we all looked at her to see if she was desperate enough to claim it. " I'll take that ! " she exclaimed.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,537

    May 219
    No May 98

    That's what I'm expecting +/- 5 votes either way.
    Same here, though maybe as low as 90 against.
  • £1.39m now matched on Betfair's VONC market
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Charles said:

    @Beverley_C FPT

    There are two fish in a tank

    One of them turns to the other and says “how do you drive this thing?”

    :)

    A man walks into a bar and orders a pack of cheese & onion and a pint. The barman says "We only have Ready Salted". "OK" says the man who then pays, drinks up and puts the crisps on his head and starts to leave

    "Hey!" says the barman "why have you put those Ready Salted on your head?"

    "Because you did not have any Cheese & Onion" says the man.

    :D:D:D:D:D

    I know - it's hilarious. :)

    It used to be an Irishman, but in these politically correct days.... :open_mouth:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Pulpstar said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT:


    Cyclefree said:

    If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?

    Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?
    Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.

    There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
    The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.

    I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill. :(
    I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?

    Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK :+1:
    That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.

    I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......
    One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.
    Unfortunately, no really, orange guppy "Donald" has passed away.
    I blame Guppy Hillary
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Pulpstar said:

    Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) Tweeted:
    The lists suggest about a third of Tory MPs have now voted https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1072918939636809729?s=17

    Does Gove have the numbers ?
    Second votes seem to be fashionable
  • On the published timetable there is an hour between the voting closing and the result announcement. Betfair should move if the consensus on her wining is wrong. I've decided to go down with the ship on my modest Betfair trading position which has been untradable.
  • VinnyVinny Posts: 48
    If you think that the Conservatives will vote Mrs May out of office, you are mistaken. That would mean handing the Party over to Brexiteers, which the main corpus of the Party will be unwilling to do. They would rather stick with May, warts and all, for a pro-European pseudo-Brexit.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    :)

    A man walks into a bar and orders a pack of cheese & onion and a pint. The barman says "We only have Ready Salted". "OK" says the man who then pays, drinks up and puts the crisps on his head and starts to leave

    "Hey!" says the barman "why have you put those Ready Salted on your head?"

    "Because you did not have any Cheese & Onion" says the man.

    :D:D:D:D:D

    I know - it's hilarious. :)

    It used to be an Irishman, but in these politically correct days.... :open_mouth:

    Why did the chicken cross the road?

    To get to the idiot's house.



    Knock Knock

    Who's there?

    The chicken...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Corbyn has drifted today for next PM.

    But if May wins, surely Corbyn should tighten - as May safe for a year and significant risk Govt loses confidence vote if WA passes.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    JackW said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.

    "Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."

    Only "faintly" ?!? ... quite a boost for Boris, some might intone ...

    Listen to the rest of the interview. He makes his contempt for Boris and the other Brexiteers clear.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Scott_P said:

    :)

    A man walks into a bar and orders a pack of cheese & onion and a pint. The barman says "We only have Ready Salted". "OK" says the man who then pays, drinks up and puts the crisps on his head and starts to leave

    "Hey!" says the barman "why have you put those Ready Salted on your head?"

    "Because you did not have any Cheese & Onion" says the man.

    :D:D:D:D:D

    I know - it's hilarious. :)

    It used to be an Irishman, but in these politically correct days.... :open_mouth:

    Why did the chicken cross the road?

    To get to the idiot's house.



    Knock Knock

    Who's there?

    The chicken...
    That's my kids favourite joke
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

    And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
    Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.

    According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval rating
    What was May's net figure the day Cameron resigned ?
    May still clearly leads Corbyn as best PM, that would not be true for some alternatives
    Like Starmer?
  • Awb683Awb683 Posts: 80
    Of course we want her out.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    If May wins the Conservatives lose.

    Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.

    And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
    Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.

    According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval rating
    What was May's net figure the day Cameron resigned ?
    May still clearly leads Corbyn as best PM, that would not be true for some alternatives
    Like Starmer?
    Well Starmer v Gove would not be the ideal result of all this for Tories
  • eekeek Posts: 28,408
    Donny43 said:

    Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1072927832727322624

    They've got somebody but is it Trump?
    I'm sure his campaign finance violations will be prosecuted exactly as hard as Obama's were, right?

    Then again, the idea that the National Enquirer could influence anything, let alone a presidential election, is not entirely credible...
    You need to read the 4 part popbitch article on the history of the national inquirer. While it may not have influenced things it knows exactly what it needed to talk about to sell papers and what those people needed to do to appear continually in their papers

    So influenced no but it probably was happy to help one if it’s biggest news personalities out once in a while
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,139

    Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..

    I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.

  • Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    DavidL said:

    Can I suggest my daughter's cat Cinnamon for PM. This is a cat who plans ahead, who can undertake complex tasks such as getting bags of treats from high level closed cupboards, who understands the consequences of his actions so that he proceeds to hide those bags of treats for later consumption when he is less likely to be troubled and who fully appreciates that when someone leaves a seat they leave some warmth that can be utilised if you move quickly.

    I can’t recall when I last saw evidence of such clear thinking at Westminster. Possibly during the Coalition.

    Deputy PM. My cat won the PM spot earlier.

    One of my other cats has learnt how to get food out of a closed Tupperware container. Definitely Chancellor material.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237

    is it like a GE? Can you draw an obscenity in the box and still have it count?
    Interesting question. I don't know. True story - I was helping scrutinise contested ballot papers during a council recount once. Incumbent councillor was 24 votes behind. Returning Officer showed us a ballot paper with a perfectly drawn c*ck and balls complete with p*bic hair in the councillors box. Valid vote under ' voters intention is clear ' but we all looked at her to see if she was desperate enough to claim it. " I'll take that ! " she exclaimed.
    I was once agent for a friend who was standing for the Tories in a no hope council seat in Birmingham city centre. The returning officer showed us the disputed ballots including one who had written "WANKER" next to Robert's name. I was proud to have it included as an unambiguous choice for one candidate only.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.

    Quite - the reasons for May seem to be

    1) She tries hard
    2) It's not a good time
    3) She hasn't lost the vote yet

    Compelling..
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,884

    Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.

    I think it is drifting away from her a bit. I fear she will get few of the uncommitted and not get some of the pledged.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    TGOHF said:

    Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.

    Quite - the reasons for May seem to be

    1) She tries hard
    2) It's not a good time
    3) She hasn't lost the vote yet

    Compelling..
    Plus no alternative polls any better, there is no better Deal on the table and indeed it is possible if she goes a No Dealer could win
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.

    Quite - the reasons for May seem to be

    1) She tries hard
    2) It's not a good time
    3) She hasn't lost the vote yet

    Compelling..
    Plus no alternative polls any better, there is no better Deal on the table and indeed it is possible if she goes a No Dealer could win
    "Nobody else polls better" - compelling....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    edited December 2018
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.

    Quite - the reasons for May seem to be

    1) She tries hard
    2) It's not a good time
    3) She hasn't lost the vote yet

    Compelling..
    Plus no alternative polls any better, there is no better Deal on the table and indeed it is possible if she goes a No Dealer could win
    "Nobody else polls better" - compelling....
    It is given most poll worse and make a Corbyn premiership more likely, at least if someone takes over before the next general election now there is room for a fresh face
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Be sort of typical of the whole thing if despite the 48 letters going in less than 48 managed to VONC her.
  • What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    viewcode said:

    Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..

    I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.

    I think that's probably right.

    But unless it's really, really close (like 55:45), then I don't see her stepping down.

    For the record, I think the total number of votes cast will be rather fewer than people are forecasting, and there'll be at least 20 absentions/spoilt ballots.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.

    Quite - the reasons for May seem to be

    1) She tries hard
    2) It's not a good time
    3) She hasn't lost the vote yet

    Compelling..
    Plus no alternative polls any better, there is no better Deal on the table and indeed it is possible if she goes a No Dealer could win
    "Nobody else polls better" - compelling....
    It is given most poll worse and make a Corbyn premiership more likely
    Total crap - other candidates have significant don't knows.

    Its like remain - there are no positive reasons only excuses that things might be worse.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on

    157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
  • HYUFD said:

    What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on

    157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
    You’re delusional
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    TGOHF said:

    Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.

    Quite - the reasons for May seem to be

    1) She tries hard
    2) It's not a good time
    3) She hasn't lost the vote yet

    Compelling..
    4) She's bought a non-refundable Eurostar ticket for tomorrow's trip to Brussels and it would be a shame to waste it.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Anything over 80 and she's in trouble.

    Less than 60 she could probably call a win.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Be sort of typical of the whole thing if despite the 48 letters going in less than 48 managed to VONC her.

    Graham Brady getting in his final troll before the ERG storm his shredding rooms with pitchforks.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    viewcode said:
    That was NOT true in 2003 when IDS was ousted.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    viewcode said:
    There’s still 9/1 on Betfair that she loses. In slightly from 19/2. Was 2/1 this morning.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202

    HYUFD said:

    What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on

    157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
    You’re delusional
    Nope those are the rules
  • I hope very much that a heavily wounded Theresa May wins the vote and pledges to go on and on. Perhaps with a chunky cabinet reshuffle now that she has the Full Support of the party.

    Having negotiated a deal so dead that it can't even be voted on by Parliament. Having been told repeatedly that the deal is the deal and no renegotiation. Having whats left of the Maybot somehow still in office unable to do literally anything at all will be great fun.

    I hope Tory MPs considered this - saying "I will quit" makes them understand the leadership has to be resolved with someone else. And that the continuation of May makes a crash election far more likely. Which she will lead...
  • TGOHF said:

    Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.

    Quite - the reasons for May seem to be

    1) She tries hard
    2) It's not a good time
    3) She hasn't lost the vote yet

    Compelling..
    4) She's bought a non-refundable Eurostar ticket for tomorrow's trip to Brussels and it would be a shame to waste it.
    Indeed it would - but only if it’s one way only.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    TGOHF said:

    Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.

    Quite - the reasons for May seem to be

    1) She tries hard
    2) It's not a good time
    3) She hasn't lost the vote yet

    Compelling..
    Campaigns without positive reasons to vote for them can win, but... (Remain, Clinton)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on

    157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
    You’re delusional
    Nope those are the rules
    Good luck holding that line.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,202
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    TGOHF said:

    Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.

    Quite - the reasons for May seem to be

    1) She tries hard
    2) It's not a good time
    3) She hasn't lost the vote yet

    Compelling..
    Plus no alternative polls any better, there is no better Deal on the table and indeed it is possible if she goes a No Dealer could win
    "Nobody else polls better" - compelling....
    It is given most poll worse and make a Corbyn premiership more likely
    Total crap - other candidates have significant don't knows.

    Its like remain - there are no positive reasons only excuses that things might be worse.

    Gove has over -50% net negative for instance.

    May has got a Deal which is more than many would have and as I said if she goes a No Dealer is possible.

  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on

    157, 158 or more she will go on regardless
    You’re delusional
    Nope those are the rules
    Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    I hope very much that a heavily wounded Theresa May wins the vote and pledges to go on and on. Perhaps with a chunky cabinet reshuffle now that she has the Full Support of the party.

    Having negotiated a deal so dead that it can't even be voted on by Parliament. Having been told repeatedly that the deal is the deal and no renegotiation. Having whats left of the Maybot somehow still in office unable to do literally anything at all will be great fun.

    I hope Tory MPs considered this - saying "I will quit" makes them understand the leadership has to be resolved with someone else. And that the continuation of May makes a crash election far more likely. Which she will lead...

    If she just about wins and decides to carry on, there’s probably Cabinet resignations coming tomorrow. It’s going be like Thatcher in 1990, albeit under a different system.
  • rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..

    I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.

    I think that's probably right.

    But unless it's really, really close (like 55:45), then I don't see her stepping down.

    For the record, I think the total number of votes cast will be rather fewer than people are forecasting, and there'll be at least 20 absentions/spoilt ballots.
    Seriously? You are joking? What would the point be of abstaining or spoiling a ballot paper? An appalling dereliction of duty if any Toty MP did.

  • Pulpstar said:

    Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice

    That is a simple maority of 1
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1072927832727322624

    In the US, the view is increasingly that Trump is likely to end up prosecuted post-Presidency. There's tax evasion regarding the Fred Trump legacy. There's campaign finance violations. There's potentially obstruction of justice. The first of these is by far the most serious charges, and is the one that has been the subject of the least headlines.

    Some of my conservative friends - engaging in a little bit of wishful thinking, perhaps - think that the best way forward would be for Trumo to stand down ahead of the 2020 election so that President Pence can preemptively pardon him. (As Ford did with Nixon.)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Good luck holding that line.

    52:48 is an indisputable majority.

    That's the line, right?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..

    I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.

    I think that's probably right.

    But unless it's really, really close (like 55:45), then I don't see her stepping down.

    For the record, I think the total number of votes cast will be rather fewer than people are forecasting, and there'll be at least 20 absentions/spoilt ballots.
    Seriously? You are joking? What would the point be of abstaining or spoiling a ballot paper? An appalling dereliction of duty if any Toty MP did.

    I think you've answered your own question.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice

    That is a simple maority of 1
    Not necessarily
  • Pulpstar said:

    Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice

    That is a simple maority of 1
    Indeed. Having won by a simple majority of 1 her leadership is safe and absolutely nothing can stop her for at least a year.

    Huzzah!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Sandpit said:

    viewcode said:
    There’s still 9/1 on Betfair that she loses. In slightly from 19/2. Was 2/1 this morning.
    I'll take £10 of that, if anyone's offering...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rcs1000 said:

    In the US, the view is increasingly that Trump is likely to end up prosecuted post-Presidency. There's tax evasion regarding the Fred Trump legacy. There's campaign finance violations. There's potentially obstruction of justice. The first of these is by far the most serious charges, and is the one that has been the subject of the least headlines.

    Some of my conservative friends - engaging in a little bit of wishful thinking, perhaps - think that the best way forward would be for Trumo to stand down ahead of the 2020 election so that President Pence can preemptively pardon him. (As Ford did with Nixon.)

    https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1072927554716254208
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Good luck holding that line.

    52:48 is an indisputable majority.

    That's the line, right?
    Only if you ignore everything about the context of the vote because you are a moron.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice

    That is a simple maority of 1
    Not necessarily
    Not sure why you say that to be honest
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    When are we expecting results?
This discussion has been closed.