She needed a majority of one. She can go on for as long as she likes.
Well done - technically correct, but she has got no authority and she can’t get anything done. Herdeal wont pass and she has no domestic policy agenda to unite her party. She’s a lame duck leader if she stays.
What constitutional norms is he talking about? She hasn't, as yet, lost a vote of no confidence in the House, what other constitutional norm would mean she should resign? He's gotten increasingly petty and whiny, and I say that not even thini
It doesn't matter that she won. Nor that Rees-Mogg looks sad. Nor that the rules mean the issue "settled" for at least a year. What this vote means is that as and when she is dragged by the House to hold a vote on her deal, it will be demolished by 200+.
At that point nobody will be left arguing with any credibility that she has a shred of authority left. Or any power left. A Prime Minister stuck in office because her party hate the blond pretender more than they hate her.
She, Theresa May, will rescind Article 50. Because that will be the only move left
She was right to pull the deal vote, she would have lost very, very badly.
Yes, it looks a dead deal. Where next?
There will be a call for YOO-NIT-TEE as there always is. But the ERG are lost to her so she can’t pass it. She has to work with Labour or the SNP to deliver something.
If I were her, I would offer Corbyn a May general election and a couple of Trade Union amendments in return for passing the deal.
It doesn't matter that she won. Nor that Rees-Mogg looks sad. Nor that the rules mean the issue "settled" for at least a year. What this vote means is that as and when she is dragged by the House to hold a vote on her deal, it will be demolished by 200+.
At that point nobody will be left arguing with any credibility that she has a shred of authority left. Or any power left. A Prime Minister stuck in office because her party hate the blond pretender more than they hate her.
She, Theresa May, will rescind Article 50. Because that will be the only move left
It doesn't matter that she won. Nor that Rees-Mogg looks sad. Nor that the rules mean the issue "settled" for at least a year. What this vote means is that as and when she is dragged by the House to hold a vote on her deal, it will be demolished by 200+.
At that point nobody will be left arguing with any credibility that she has a shred of authority left. Or any power left. A Prime Minister stuck in office because her party hate the blond pretender more than they hate her.
She, Theresa May, will rescind Article 50. Because that will be the only move left
Any other PM would have resigned if over 1/3rd of their MPs were against them, I'm not sure if the fact that she isn't is a credit to her or not.
She might yet resign. And whether one thinks it's about noble duty or pig headed selfishness, she's facing the same dilemma she did last week.
Except we can guess her deal has even less support than we thought, since at least one person said they backed her but not the deal, so it has fewer than 200 supporters.
Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.
Tick.
Tock.
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.
Keep talking to yourselves. Meanwhile potential voters tiptoe quietly away.
Yes but there are significantly fewer Tory MPs now than there were at the time of the leadership election.
Only about a dozen or so less IIRC. Had there been a dozen more and if they had voted in the same proportions as the rest then it would have been 207ish for her and 120ish against.
It doesn't matter that she won. Nor that Rees-Mogg looks sad. Nor that the rules mean the issue "settled" for at least a year. What this vote means is that as and when she is dragged by the House to hold a vote on her deal, it will be demolished by 200+.
At that point nobody will be left arguing with any credibility that she has a shred of authority left. Or any power left. A Prime Minister stuck in office because her party hate the blond pretender more than they hate her.
She, Theresa May, will rescind Article 50. Because that will be the only move left
Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.
Tick.
Tock.
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.
Keep talking to yourselves. Meanwhile potential voters tiptoe quietly away.
Can you get the votes out if no-one knocks on the doors?
It doesn't matter that she won. Nor that Rees-Mogg looks sad. Nor that the rules mean the issue "settled" for at least a year. What this vote means is that as and when she is dragged by the House to hold a vote on her deal, it will be demolished by 200+.
At that point nobody will be left arguing with any credibility that she has a shred of authority left. Or any power left. A Prime Minister stuck in office because her party hate the blond pretender more than they hate her.
She, Theresa May, will rescind Article 50. Because that will be the only move left
Note: 117 votes against May tonight. 106 votes required to get a candidate a guaranteed place in a leadership run-off, whenever that takes place.
I don't imagine for a second that all the 117 malcontents are part of the radical wing, but it might be stronger than previously assumed.
Anyway, this doesn't change the basics in terms of sorting out Brexit. All it does is keep May on life support on the one hand, but make it more likely that the Tories end up having to fight an election with May as leader on the other. The Deal is still a steaming pile of manure that most MPs loathe, she's still dependent on the DUP for the Government's majority, Corbyn obviously won't help her out, and the anti-Brexit majority in the Commons still won't contemplate any serious action.
She was right to pull the deal vote, she would have lost very, very badly.
Yes, it looks a dead deal. Where next?
There will be a call for YOO-NIT-TEE as there always is. But the ERG are lost to her so she can’t pass it. She has to work with Labour or the SNP to deliver something.
If I were her, I would offer Corbyn a May general election and a couple of Trade Union amendments in return for passing the deal.
That's it. Labour should be reaching out and asking for those things tbh.
If we are relying on Corbyn we're stuffed but McDonnell has more sense so I suspect that will happen over Christmas.
It doesn't matter that she won. Nor that Rees-Mogg looks sad. Nor that the rules mean the issue "settled" for at least a year. What this vote means is that as and when she is dragged by the House to hold a vote on her deal, it will be demolished by 200+.
At that point nobody will be left arguing with any credibility that she has a shred of authority left. Or any power left. A Prime Minister stuck in office because her party hate the blond pretender more than they hate her.
She, Theresa May, will rescind Article 50. Because that will be the only move left
my guess is when the deal inevitably falls in January , the cabinet will force May to resign and then a leadership contest, whilst she hangs on as caretaker and we prepare for no deal as the EU will not budge
What constitutional norms is he talking about? She hasn't, as yet, lost a vote of no confidence in the House, what other constitutional norm would mean she should resign? He's gotten increasingly petty and whiny, and I say that not even thini
He’s looked even more terrible than usual these past few weeks. Sounds very much like a sore loser.
Vicki Ford talked quite sensibly I thought, but it was all very bland. No specifics. They have to have a programme. Not that it will be much use when we slump to no deal.
Rebecca Long Bailey still comes as a patronising, pompous and extremely stupid and dishonest woman.
Disturbingly she remains one of the abler members of the Shadow Cabinet.
Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.
Tick.
Tock.
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.
Keep talking to yourselves. Meanwhile potential voters tiptoe quietly away.
Tiptoe where though?
We might be a shitpile, but it's still better than Labour.
It doesn't matter that she won. Nor that Rees-Mogg looks sad. Nor that the rules mean the issue "settled" for at least a year. What this vote means is that as and when she is dragged by the House to hold a vote on her deal, it will be demolished by 200+.
At that point nobody will be left arguing with any credibility that she has a shred of authority left. Or any power left. A Prime Minister stuck in office because her party hate the blond pretender more than they hate her.
She, Theresa May, will rescind Article 50. Because that will be the only move left
Dream on
It's the least risky option - the other option is that everything is ready and a no deal exit is going to go smoothly (hint it's going to be a disaster with the Tories name all over it).
The tories options are Revoke and suffer the consequences or no deal and be utterly destroyed in all future elections. Revoking is the safer option...
We know something else now. The headbangers Hard Brexit would only get about 20% of the HoC supporting it. If May's Deal is done for surely this also kills off Hard Brexit? It's probably down to Remain and BINO now.
What constitutional norms is he talking about? She hasn't, as yet, lost a vote of no confidence in the House, what other constitutional norm would mean she should resign? He's gotten increasingly petty and whiny, and I say that not even thini
Mogg has lost the plot. Since when has anyone had to resign when winning by 66/33
Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.
Tick.
Tock.
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.
Keep talking to yourselves. Meanwhile potential voters tiptoe quietly away.
Tiptoe where though?
We might be a shitpile, but it's still better than Labour.
Is it? - The middle ground is not going out on a freezing cold day in February or March...
Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.
Tick.
Tock.
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.
Keep talking to yourselves. Meanwhile potential voters tiptoe quietly away.
Can you get the votes out if no-one knocks on the doors?
Cameron managed it in e.g. Cannock Chase, where the campaign for the Conservatives was exactly one leaflet while Labour tramped it as though they were threshing wheat.
It doesn't matter that she won. Nor that Rees-Mogg looks sad. Nor that the rules mean the issue "settled" for at least a year. What this vote means is that as and when she is dragged by the House to hold a vote on her deal, it will be demolished by 200+.
At that point nobody will be left arguing with any credibility that she has a shred of authority left. Or any power left. A Prime Minister stuck in office because her party hate the blond pretender more than they hate her.
She, Theresa May, will rescind Article 50. Because that will be the only move left
Dream on
It's the least risky option - the other option is that everything is ready and a no deal exit is going to go smoothly (hint it's going to be a disaster with the Tories name all over it).
The tories options are Revoke and suffer the consequences or no deal and be utterly destroyed in all future elections. Revoking is the safer option...
Re-electing May screws the Tories whatever happens to Brexit
Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.
What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.
Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....
Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.
Tick.
Tock.
I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.
Keep talking to yourselves. Meanwhile potential voters tiptoe quietly away.
Tiptoe where though?
We might be a shitpile, but it's still better than Labour.
For how long though? Any moderate Labour leader would be miles ahead.
What constitutional norms is he talking about? She hasn't, as yet, lost a vote of no confidence in the House, what other constitutional norm would mean she should resign? He's gotten increasingly petty and whiny, and I say that not even thini
He’s looked even more terrible than usual these past few weeks. Sounds very much like a sore loser.
He is heading from being one of the front-runners for next PM back to being a marginalised figure of fun; have some sympathy!
my guess is when the deal inevitably falls in January , the cabinet will force May to resign...
Given that she now cannot be challenged for a year and will not budge under any circs up to and including nuclear war, I'd be interested to know how they plan to pull that off.
It doesn't matter that she won. Nor that Rees-Mogg looks sad. Nor that the rules mean the issue "settled" for at least a year. What this vote means is that as and when she is dragged by the House to hold a vote on her deal, it will be demolished by 200+.
At that point nobody will be left arguing with any credibility that she has a shred of authority left. Or any power left. A Prime Minister stuck in office because her party hate the blond pretender more than they hate her.
She, Theresa May, will rescind Article 50. Because that will be the only move left
She may withdraw her proposed "deal". Agreed she will have to rescind A50, probably in some way such that if it gets invoked again the full two years won't be necessary. Then she will have to call a referendum on WTO versus Remain. Rather than do all of that, she may just resign. Bringing her deal to the Commons next week would be tantamount to resigning.
The succession of Brexiteers being interviewed on TV is terrible PR for the Conservatives.
My generally non political (although previously conservative voting) wife is genuinely shocked and repelled by how weird and dysfunctional they all seem to be.
The ERG and the striped pencil that leads them are utterly fucking laughable. They went for a vonc and got stuffed. That’s it really. May shielded from the prick army for a year. A complete and utter shambles from the Ergers.
my guess is when the deal inevitably falls in January , the cabinet will force May to resign...
Given that she now cannot be challenged for a year and will not budge under any circs up to and including nuclear war, I'd be interested to know how they plan to pull that off.
by threatening coordinated resignations if she refuses to budge?
Comments
I can now withdraw my letter to the BBC of complaint over its cancellation.
For Corbyn 40
Against 170
She has won the right to try - but she’ll fail if she does and rightly so. She has no authority or integrity.
In contrast, May winning 200-117 doesn't look good.
At that point nobody will be left arguing with any credibility that she has a shred of authority left. Or any power left. A Prime Minister stuck in office because her party hate the blond pretender more than they hate her.
She, Theresa May, will rescind Article 50. Because that will be the only move left
If I were her, I would offer Corbyn a May general election and a couple of Trade Union amendments in return for passing the deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/turkey-primed-to-start-offensive-against-us-backed-kurds-in-syria
Except we can guess her deal has even less support than we thought, since at least one person said they backed her but not the deal, so it has fewer than 200 supporters.
Corbyn 6.6 for next PM. Should have got shorter in the last 5 minutes but hasn’t yet.
I don't imagine for a second that all the 117 malcontents are part of the radical wing, but it might be stronger than previously assumed.
Anyway, this doesn't change the basics in terms of sorting out Brexit. All it does is keep May on life support on the one hand, but make it more likely that the Tories end up having to fight an election with May as leader on the other. The Deal is still a steaming pile of manure that most MPs loathe, she's still dependent on the DUP for the Government's majority, Corbyn obviously won't help her out, and the anti-Brexit majority in the Commons still won't contemplate any serious action.
Days until Brexit: 107 - tick tock tick tock...
If we are relying on Corbyn we're stuffed but McDonnell has more sense so I suspect that will happen over Christmas.
Rebecca Long Bailey still comes as a patronising, pompous and extremely stupid and dishonest woman.
Disturbingly she remains one of the abler members of the Shadow Cabinet.
Edit - I missed off 'rude and smug.'
We might be a shitpile, but it's still better than Labour.
The tories options are Revoke and suffer the consequences or no deal and be utterly destroyed in all future elections. Revoking is the safer option...
And even then I firmly expect she'll try and squat in Downing St. as Brown did...
My Mystic Meg-like record of predictive failure continues :-((
Me, the informed PBer, said 80...
That's - not very good, is it?
NEW THREAD
My generally non political (although previously conservative voting) wife is genuinely shocked and repelled by how weird and dysfunctional they all seem to be.
Just moderate fanatic then?