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  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871

    If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

    As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

    That would clearly be the best result. The question then is whether May is bold and ruthless enough to follow through and crush her saboteurs.
  • MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    You need remain on the ballot to get Labour's support.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    That's an added bonus then! :lol:
    It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.
    Do you think she's stupid enough to let the country accidentally slip into No Deal Brexit? Because that might be the alternative to a 2nd referendum.
    The CJEU have already done that, unfortunately. They've blocked off the one hope of avoiding it - that Labour's backbenches would see this as a better option than a crashout.

    And as nobody will dare withdraw a50 and nobody will vote through the deal we are all screwed.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,710
    Jonathan said:
    I'm Still Standing?
  • IanB2 said:

    If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

    As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

    That would clearly be the best result. The question then is whether May is bold and ruthless enough to follow through and crush her saboteurs.
    "Maggie T ain't got shit on me!"
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    Your party is dying in front of you. This is - even though you won't believe me - one chance to appeal to voters beyond the core vote. And to get rid of the current parasites in your party who are killing it - like honey fungus which looks superficially appealing but over time kills the tree to which it attaches itself to.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Jonathan said:
    I'm Still Standing?
    The winner takes it all, surely?
  • Jonathan said:
    I'm Still Standing?
    F.U.R.B.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

    As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

    Win or lose they had to put in letters if they disagree so fundamentally with the leader of their party. Good on them for that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    edited December 2018

    Jonathan said:
    I'm Still Standing?
    F.U.R.B.
    Frankee?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    You need remain on the ballot to get Labour's support.
    Good.
  • Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:
    I'm Still Standing?
    F.U.R.B.
    Frankie?
    Yup.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    IanB2 said:

    If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

    As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

    That would clearly be the best result. The question then is whether May is bold and ruthless enough to follow through and crush her saboteurs.
    But who are the saboteurs? Seems everyone including May has been saboteur at some point. It's hard for us sans cullottes to keep up.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    That's an added bonus then! :lol:
    It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.
    It would be nice if the national interest was occasionally prioritised versus the internal politics of the conservative party. We need an outcome and clarity.
    May or no May I don't think an outcome or clarity were likely. This is an internal Tory fight, and one we can scarcely afford the time for, but who they pick as leader seems largely irrelevant to the national interest unless it is Rees Mogg.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    You need remain on the ballot to get Labour's support.
    And for the EU to agree to extend Article 50.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168
    All coming down to symbolism of 100 or not then I guess. Oh well, I might only be 60 or so out!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:
    I'm Still Standing?
    F.U.R.B.
    Frankie?
    Yup.
    You win most obscure pop music reference of the night award!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/VinnyMcAv/status/1072953044558643206

    Nothing has changed, I will carry on delivering Brexit, yadda yadda yadda....
    Now's the time for her to reveal this was all part of the plan to remain the whole time.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    That's an added bonus then! :lol:
    It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.
    Do you think she's stupid enough to let the country accidentally slip into No Deal Brexit? Because that might be the alternative to a 2nd referendum.
    The CJEU have already done that, unfortunately. They've blocked off the one hope of avoiding it - that Labour's backbenches would see this as a better option than a crashout.

    And as nobody will dare withdraw a50 and nobody will vote through the deal we are all screwed.
    May will withdraw A50 if we get close to crash out imo. The cabinet have obviously been spooked by the secret briefings they have had on No Deal consequences.
  • Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    Your party is dying in front of you. This is - even though you won't believe me - one chance to appeal to voters beyond the core vote. And to get rid of the current parasites in your party who are killing it - like honey fungus which looks superficially appealing but over time kills the tree to which it attaches itself to.
    Most people (including a lot of conservative voters) are sick to the back teeth with Brexit.

    Getting this resolved wins brownie points, not an internal dialogue that the electorate are frankly bewildered by, with the preference for leaving seeming to shrink week by week now in the polls.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    Your party is dying in front of you. This is - even though you won't believe me - one chance to appeal to voters beyond the core vote. And to get rid of the current parasites in your party who are killing it - like honey fungus which looks superficially appealing but over time kills the tree to which it attaches itself to.
    I agree. Popcorn time
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    edited December 2018
    Jonathan said:
    < drops mic >
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    Told @theresa_may has now been told result of #voteofconfidence ahead of 9pm media announcement

    And is sinking a bottle of Vodka after hearing that sadly she is still in charge of Brexit.
    "Seriously, I ever told them I could legally secure changes, and that the DUP backed me, what will it take to anger them enough to get rid of me?"
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Not sure why you think telling the people "you got it wrong, vote again" would save the Tories.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    FF43 said:

    IanB2 said:

    If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

    As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

    That would clearly be the best result. The question then is whether May is bold and ruthless enough to follow through and crush her saboteurs.
    But who are the saboteurs? Seems everyone including May has been saboteur at some point. It's hard for us sans cullottes to keep up.
    Just crush them all?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    70-89 band just went favourite
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Bernard Jenkin getting his excuses in early on BBC1 I see.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    Only for a few secs - 90-109 now fav again
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    The price of winning this vote has been to confirm that she is standing down before the next election. She has therefore offered herself up as a lame duck as the price of this vote.

    Rather confirming the point of those who put in the letters.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Jenkin as good as conceding that they have failed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    MikeL said:

    70-89 band just went favourite

    Yet the odds against May are in from 19/1 to 13/1.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Jonathan said:
    I'm Still Standing?
    F.U.R.B.
    Frankie?
    Yup.
    You win most obscure pop music reference of the night award!
    "Mamma Mia - here I go again"

    "Look at me now. Will I ever learn?
  • Donny43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Not sure why you think telling the people "you got it wrong, vote again" would save the Tories.
    It's clearly not saying that.

    She has tried her best to leave via a real and parliament won't let her.

    Only resolution to above is to ask the people. Don't think it's that complex.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
    A perfect description of the fate that awaits you if they try to implement no deal.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    That's an added bonus then! :lol:
    It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.
    Do you think she's stupid enough to let the country accidentally slip into No Deal Brexit? Because that might be the alternative to a 2nd referendum.
    The CJEU have already done that, unfortunately. They've blocked off the one hope of avoiding it - that Labour's backbenches would see this as a better option than a crashout.

    And as nobody will dare withdraw a50 and nobody will vote through the deal we are all screwed.
    May will withdraw A50 if we get close to crash out imo. The cabinet have obviously been spooked by the secret briefings they have had on No Deal consequences.
    She can't. It would require at the very least a vote in the Commons, and she doesn't have the numbers.

    We are left with the default, because nobody can agree an alternative pathway. And no deal is the default.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    The price of winning this vote has been to confirm that she is standing down before the next election. She has therefore offered herself up as a lame duck as the price of this vote.

    Rather confirming the point of those who put in the letters.

    In what way? Were there really that many people who thought she was going to last beyond Brexit day, assuming we even get there?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,494
    edited December 2018


    May will withdraw A50 if we get close to crash out imo. The cabinet have obviously been spooked by the secret briefings they have had on No Deal consequences.
    How can we 'crash out' of anything when we know in advance it's happening? The concept itself is ludicrous. We crashed out of the ERM. The whole concept of crashing out is that it happens as a shock. Crashing out of something by appointment is actually admitting that there are issues and that the policy is to fail to prepare for them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,776
    edited December 2018
    May loss is now 13 on BF.

    Looks like punters have made their minds up.
  • "Jenkin: She will have my firm support. Just not on the Deal"

    In office but not in power...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,408
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
    or you revoke A50 (as that keeps the DUP onside) and push to stay in power to 2022 hoping that something happens to Labour.

    It's not a brilliant plan but its better than most of the others...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168
    He should get up later in the morning, it won't drag on so much then.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
    You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    kle4 said:

    The price of winning this vote has been to confirm that she is standing down before the next election. She has therefore offered herself up as a lame duck as the price of this vote.

    Rather confirming the point of those who put in the letters.

    In what way? Were there really that many people who thought she was going to last beyond Brexit day, assuming we even get there?
    She confirmed that she wanted to lead them into 2022, but has had to concede that is a pipe dream.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    kle4 said:

    If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

    As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

    Win or lose they had to put in letters if they disagree so fundamentally with the leader of their party. Good on them for that.
    One could argue that at least the hotter kind of Brexiteers are bothering to vote for what they believe in, even if they do end up being outnumbered.

    Whereas the hundreds of Europhiles and pragmatists who probably constitute a good majority in Parliament - and who view Brexit with disdain or outright horror - are content to make vacuous speeches or to remain silent, rather than seize control of this process and stop it in its tracks.

    One can dispute the positioning of both the ERG wing and the Prime Minister, but at least it is possible to construct a reasonable argument to the effect that each is acting in what they believe to be the national interest. Whereas the ditherers are either moaning, wetting themselves, or both.

    And one fundamental fact persists: if the majority in Parliament refuses to work together towards any agreed outcome, then Hard Brexit happens by default on March 29th next year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    "Jenkin: She will have my firm support. Just not on the Deal"

    In office but not in power...

    Quite what the point of her making that distinction is I have no bloody clue. Even now new dealers and no dealers won't switch, nor remainers like JoJo.
  • "Jenkin: She will have my firm support. Just not on the Deal"

    In office but not in power...

    And this is the key point. Win or lose May still won't be able to get concessions from Yerp or a vote through the Commons. An entertaining aside but doesn't really change anything.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
    You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
    Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Any rumours yet? I've just come out of a meeting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    That's an added bonus then! :lol:
    It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.
    Do you think she's stupid enough to let the country accidentally slip into No Deal Brexit? Because that might be the alternative to a 2nd referendum.
    The CJEU have already done that, unfortunately. They've blocked off the one hope of avoiding it - that Labour's backbenches would see this as a better option than a crashout.

    And as nobody will dare withdraw a50 and nobody will vote through the deal we are all screwed.
    May will withdraw A50 if we get close to crash out imo. The cabinet have obviously been spooked by the secret briefings they have had on No Deal consequences.
    She can't. It would require at the very least a vote in the Commons, and she doesn't have the numbers.

    We are left with the default, because nobody can agree an alternative pathway. And no deal is the default.
    If she put that to Parliament as the government proposal, it would sail through.
  • Andrew Neil forgot the LibDems were a Party there for a moment
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,134
    edited December 2018
    Could be more than the number of votes against...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    Mortimer said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
    You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
    Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.
    Yes, far better to lose them slowly.
  • "Jenkin: She will have my firm support. Just not on the Deal"

    In office but not in power...

    And this is the key point. Win or lose May still won't be able to get concessions from Yerp or a vote through the Commons. An entertaining aside but doesn't really change anything.
    It ends the nonsense of 48 letters
  • Andrew Neil forgot the LibDems were a Party there for a moment

    easy to do.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    edited December 2018
    Disconnect between winner and no. of votes markets.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    kle4 said:

    The price of winning this vote has been to confirm that she is standing down before the next election. She has therefore offered herself up as a lame duck as the price of this vote.

    Rather confirming the point of those who put in the letters.

    In what way? Were there really that many people who thought she was going to last beyond Brexit day, assuming we even get there?
    She confirmed that she wanted to lead them into 2022, but has had to concede that is a pipe dream.
    Sure, but I always figured everyone knew that she didn't mean it, like Cameron not resigning if he lost the referendum, I assumed it was built into perceptions of her.
  • Andrew Neil forgot the LibDems were a Party there for a moment

    Who are the LibDems? Are they an act on Britain's got Talent or something?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    Your party is dying in front of you. This is - even though you won't believe me - one chance to appeal to voters beyond the core vote. And to get rid of the current parasites in your party who are killing it - like honey fungus which looks superficially appealing but over time kills the tree to which it attaches itself to.
    Not really. We needed a bloodletting, unfortunately this is very poorly timed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    kle4 said:

    If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

    As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

    Win or lose they had to put in letters if they disagree so fundamentally with the leader of their party. Good on them for that.
    I'm talking about the way the ERG has played this: IMV they've behaved truly awfully, and been utterly incompetent.

    I mean, if it's true one of them has been whinging that May called the vote too soon, that they wanted her to call it after the weekend, then you have to ask what the fu*k they've been playing at? They've been saying they're near 48 letters, or even past it, for weeks, and yet they're totally unprepared for it when it does happen?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Who's that woman speaking to Andrew Neil?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    Your party is dying in front of you. This is - even though you won't believe me - one chance to appeal to voters beyond the core vote. And to get rid of the current parasites in your party who are killing it - like honey fungus which looks superficially appealing but over time kills the tree to which it attaches itself to.
    Not really. We needed a bloodletting, unfortunately this is very poorly timed.
    Which blood do you think needs letting?
  • IanB2 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
    You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
    Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.
    Yes, far better to lose them slowly.
    If, say, less than a third of voters support no deal in March, that is no basis for the conservatives to thrive anyway; especially if things go south subsequently
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    IanB2 said:

    Jenkin as good as conceding that they have failed.

    Farage conceded the referendum at ten minutes past ten on 23rd June. :D
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168

    kle4 said:

    If (say) 90 MPs or fewer are against May, how stupid and incompetent does this make the ERGers look? They had the farce of the repeated claims about 48 letters being in over the last month, and when they finally do get them, they can't even put the knife in well.

    As I said a while back: they are all tactics and no strategy.

    Win or lose they had to put in letters if they disagree so fundamentally with the leader of their party. Good on them for that.
    One could argue that at least the hotter kind of Brexiteers are bothering to vote for what they believe in, even if they do end up being outnumbered.

    Whereas the hundreds of Europhiles and pragmatists who probably constitute a good majority in Parliament - and who view Brexit with disdain or outright horror - are content to make vacuous speeches or to remain silent, rather than seize control of this process and stop it in its tracks.

    One can dispute the positioning of both the ERG wing and the Prime Minister, but at least it is possible to construct a reasonable argument to the effect that each is acting in what they believe to be the national interest. Whereas the ditherers are either moaning, wetting themselves, or both.

    And one fundamental fact persists: if the majority in Parliament refuses to work together towards any agreed outcome, then Hard Brexit happens by default on March 29th next year.
    You talk uncommonly good sense.

    By which I mean I agree with you.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,712
    70-89 now clear favourite
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    That's an added bonus then! :lol:
    It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.
    Do you think she's stupid enough to let the country accidentally slip into No Deal Brexit? Because that might be the alternative to a 2nd referendum.
    The CJEU have already done that, unfortunately. They've blocked off the one hope of avoiding it - that Labour's backbenches would see this as a better option than a crashout.

    And as nobody will dare withdraw a50 and nobody will vote through the deal we are all screwed.
    May will withdraw A50 if we get close to crash out imo. The cabinet have obviously been spooked by the secret briefings they have had on No Deal consequences.
    She can't. It would require at the very least a vote in the Commons, and she doesn't have the numbers.

    We are left with the default, because nobody can agree an alternative pathway. And no deal is the default.
    If she put that to Parliament as the government proposal, it would sail through.
    Not without Labour's support it wouldn't, and Corbyn has already shown he puts his own power and ego above the national interest.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Who's that woman speaking to Andrew Neil?

    Telegraph correspondant.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Wow, surely they'd be instantly deselected?
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    Donny43 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Not sure why you think telling the people "you got it wrong, vote again" would save the Tories.
    It's clearly not saying that.

    She has tried her best to leave via a real and parliament won't let her.

    Only resolution to above is to ask the people. Don't think it's that complex.
    If you put Remain back on the ballot paper it's exactly how it will - rightly - be seen.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    Mortimer said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
    You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
    Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.
    To whom exactly?
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    Mortimer said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    The Tories are going to take a hit anyway. Allowing Remain on the ballot in a referendum might actually save the Tories in the long-run. You might not like it but that is tough luck! Go back to UKIP and rant about Europe to your hearts content.
    Bullshit. 70% of our voters are leavers, 50% are no dealers. There aren't nearly enough votes in the centre to available to replace the ones we'd lose by putting remain back on the agenda. We'd end up as a rump if a party like the lib dems, Corbyn and the hard left would get 10 years unopposed while the right regrouped under a new banner. It would be an unmitigated disaster.
    You seem to have no idea how many voters you are losing, who are - or could be - natural conservatives, by your current shenanigans. And it is those shenanigans that are making a Corbyn government ever more likely.
    Max is right. Talking to members and our voters, we’d lose 25-40% of them overnight if we put Remain on the ballot.
    Of course, all that matters is The Party and sod the bloody country.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Who's that woman speaking to Andrew Neil?

    Rebecca Long-Bailey now

    Camilla Tominay previously
  • MikeL said:

    70-89 now clear favourite

    But a 7% chance she'll lose. What a spread that is.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    RobD said:

    Who's that woman speaking to Andrew Neil?

    Telegraph correspondant.
    Ah ok thanks
  • RobD said:

    Wow, surely they'd be instantly deselected?
    Deservedly so.

    In another era they'd be horsewhipped.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Bernard Jenkin getting his excuses in early on BBC1 I see.

    Farage also conceded defeat at the start of EU Ref night...

    Anyway, the tedious wait should be over in a couple of minutes, then we'll know for certain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    That's an added bonus then! :lol:
    It's also why that will never be the choice. I don't like May very much but she's not completely stupid.
    Do you think she's stupid enough to let the country accidentally slip into No Deal Brexit? Because that might be the alternative to a 2nd referendum.
    The CJEU have already done that, unfortunately. They've blocked off the one hope of avoiding it - that Labour's backbenches would see this as a better option than a crashout.

    And as nobody will dare withdraw a50 and nobody will vote through the deal we are all screwed.
    May will withdraw A50 if we get close to crash out imo. The cabinet have obviously been spooked by the secret briefings they have had on No Deal consequences.
    She can't. It would require at the very least a vote in the Commons, and she doesn't have the numbers.

    We are left with the default, because nobody can agree an alternative pathway. And no deal is the default.
    If she put that to Parliament as the government proposal, it would sail through.
    Not without Labour's support it wouldn't, and Corbyn has already shown he puts his own power and ego above the national interest.
    Corbyn would have to surf the wave or get very wet.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Three mins to go, if it is on the hour....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676

    RobD said:

    Wow, surely they'd be instantly deselected?
    Deservedly so.

    In another era they'd be horsewhipped.
    What Tories get up to in their private lives is remarkable.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Jonathan said:

    Assuming May wins, today will have solved nothing at all. The same problems exist tomorrow, for both the Conservative Party and the country.

    What has got worse is that the EU knows it needs to offer her nothing - because no-one else is now going to come in to re-negotiate with them. And May can't be bounced out, however crap her performance with them.

    Corbyn now knows he will face May if he can get a VONC through - and get to face her again in any General Election he can cause. Quite an incentive now....

    Well quite. A nice little detour. But the deal still doesn’t have a majority. Erg just need to wait to win. Whereas May has to offer Labour something.

    Tick.

    Tock.
    I think that's right - she has to offer Labour something. Unfortunately, I am not sure she gets that.
    Or go for a referendum. Leave with the May Deal or Remain.
    You may as well serve the Tory party it's last rites with that kind of choice presented to the public.
    Your party is dying in front of you. This is - even though you won't believe me - one chance to appeal to voters beyond the core vote. And to get rid of the current parasites in your party who are killing it - like honey fungus which looks superficially appealing but over time kills the tree to which it attaches itself to.
    Not really. We needed a bloodletting, unfortunately this is very poorly timed.
    Which blood do you think needs letting?
    Across the whole party tbh, as I said if the PM wins then the ERG needs to fall in line or lose the whip.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Scott_P said:

    Who's that woman speaking to Andrew Neil?

    Rebecca Long-Bailey now

    Camilla Tominay previously
    Thanks - Long-Bailey I recognised, it was the other one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Becky Long odds Bailey.... +1193.12
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,871
    RobD said:

    Who's that woman speaking to Andrew Neil?

    Telegraph correspondant.
    Loon-Bailey
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    RobD said:

    Wow, surely they'd be instantly deselected?
    Depends how mental their constituency party is, which can vary immensely.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Scott_P said:

    Who's that woman speaking to Andrew Neil?

    Rebecca Long-Bailey now

    Camilla Tominay previously
    What is the difference between Rebecca Long Bailey's intelligence and Bigfoot?

    There's some evidence for the existence of Bigfoot.
  • Result being announced now.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Here we go....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,676
    So if May wins, she has licence to screw things up as badly as this week without the threat of a leadership challenge. I am not sure that’s a huge improvement.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,168
    So, how many days before the initial 'win' high reduces and May resigns anyway?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,631
    Jonathan said:

    RobD said:

    Wow, surely they'd be instantly deselected?
    Deservedly so.

    In another era they'd be horsewhipped.
    What Tories get up to in their private lives is remarkable.
    Stephen Milligan was nearly 25 years ago (boy that makes me feel old, I was a sniggering schoolboy back when he passed away.)
This discussion has been closed.