politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members
Comments
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May 245
Not May 72
ERG a legend only in their own liquid lunchtimes0 -
I hope all Tory MPs are taking their own pens...we don't want a rerun of the Brexit vote ;-)0
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May 2500
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May 219
No May 980 -
May 197
Not May 1180 -
The Hungarian government has passed a set of controversial laws amid scenes of chaos, as opposition MPs sounded sirens, blew whistles and angrily confronted the country’s rightwing prime minister.
One of the new laws raises the amount of overtime employers can demand their employees work and has been labelled a “slave law” by critics. Another establishes new courts to consider government business with a greater role for the justice minister.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/dec/12/hungary-passes-slave-law-prompting-fury-among-opposition-mps0 -
Spoilt ballots from May 'supporters' could make the margin closer than otherwise. Is anyone taking these into account?0
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Not May 1300
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If May wins the Conservatives lose.
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Psychological barriers are irrelevant, as long as May wins she wins, she cannot be toppled before BrexitYellowSubmarine said:We're a decimal culture. Over/Under 100 for non May votes and Over/Under 200 for May votes will be the psychological barriers however arbitrary they are. If the rebels score one she's in trouble, if the score both she's finished. If they score neither she gets a few days momentum before the routed ERGers turn to metaphorical terrorist tactics.
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They've got somebody but is it Trump?TheScreamingEagles said:Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/10729278327273226240 -
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.TGOHF said:If May wins the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.0 -
Betfair:
90-109 band favourite, but 70-89 is 2nd fav.
I think SPIN higher because more scope for upside than downside.0 -
I disagree. That just isn't how politics in general or a parliamentary system works.HYUFD said:
Psychological barriers are irrelevant, as long as May wins she wins, she cannot be toppled before BrexitYellowSubmarine said:We're a decimal culture. Over/Under 100 for non May votes and Over/Under 200 for May votes will be the psychological barriers however arbitrary they are. If the rebels score one she's in trouble, if the score both she's finished. If they score neither she gets a few days momentum before the routed ERGers turn to metaphorical terrorist tactics.
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For May: 162
Against May: 153
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One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.Cyclefree said:
That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.Beverley_C said:FPT:
I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?Cyclefree said:
The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.Beverley_C said:
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.David_Evershed said:
Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?MarqueeMark said:If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill.
Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK
I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......
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That's what I'm expecting +/- 5 votes either way.Benpointer said:May 219
No May 980 -
Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.JosiasJessop said:
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.TGOHF said:If May wins the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
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Surely the 10.5 currently on Betfair is value, for May to lose the vote?
There’s got to be a dozen or two of the payroll vote who will voice their support in public, yet vote against in the privacy of the polling booth?0 -
An exaggeration similar to JackW's age on PB.hamiltonace said:Not May 130
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You know nothing about the conservative party. Don't embarrass yourself.JosiasJessop said:
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.TGOHF said:If May wins the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.0 -
I think we already knew Trump was no great respected of women before the last election anyway and with the Senate still GOP an impeachment is unlikely to succeedTheScreamingEagles said:Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/10729278327273226240 -
@Beverley_C FPT
There are two fish in a tank
One of them turns to the other and says “how do you drive this thing?”0 -
This is the Maybot we are talking about, if she wins tonight that is it, she will go as programmed through past Brexit day and Tory MPs can no longer do a thing about itYellowSubmarine said:
I disagree. That just isn't how politics in general or a parliamentary system works.HYUFD said:
Psychological barriers are irrelevant, as long as May wins she wins, she cannot be toppled before BrexitYellowSubmarine said:We're a decimal culture. Over/Under 100 for non May votes and Over/Under 200 for May votes will be the psychological barriers however arbitrary they are. If the rebels score one she's in trouble, if the score both she's finished. If they score neither she gets a few days momentum before the routed ERGers turn to metaphorical terrorist tactics.
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When you get vets bills........Beverley_C said:
One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.Cyclefree said:
That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.Beverley_C said:FPT:
I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?Cyclefree said:
The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.Beverley_C said:
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.David_Evershed said:
Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?MarqueeMark said:If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill.
Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK
I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......
Be thankful for the NHS.0 -
Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) Tweeted:
The ballot paper of @margot_james_mp https://t.co/OpgE6CjNdR https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1072931880293621767?s=170 -
Sounds like JRM!Charles said:@Beverley_C FPT
There are two fish in a tank
One of them turns to the other and says “how do you drive this thing?”0 -
Unfortunately, no really, orange guppy "Donald" has passed away.Beverley_C said:
One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.Cyclefree said:
That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.Beverley_C said:FPT:
I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?Cyclefree said:
The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.Beverley_C said:
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.David_Evershed said:
Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?MarqueeMark said:If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill.
Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK
I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......0 -
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is it like a GE? Can you draw an obscenity in the box and still have it count?YellowSubmarine said:Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) Tweeted:
The ballot paper of @margot_james_mp https://t.co/OpgE6CjNdR https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1072931880293621767?s=170 -
I'm sure his campaign finance violations will be prosecuted exactly as hard as Obama's were, right?David_Evershed said:
They've got somebody but is it Trump?TheScreamingEagles said:Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1072927832727322624
Then again, the idea that the National Enquirer could influence anything, let alone a presidential election, is not entirely credible...0 -
Will Michael Gove tweet his ballot ?0
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According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval rating.TGOHF said:
Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.JosiasJessop said:
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.TGOHF said:If May wins the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.
Boris has the highest number saying he would be a good PM on 22%, Javid the highest net rating on -18%.
Gove does worst on -41% followed by Hunt on -36%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/12/12/who-could-succeed-theresa-may0 -
Pulpstar said:
Unfortunately, no really, orange guppy "Donald" has passed away.Beverley_C said:
One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.Cyclefree said:
That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.Beverley_C said:FPT:
I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?Cyclefree said:
The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.Beverley_C said:
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.David_Evershed said:
Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?MarqueeMark said:If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill.
Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK
I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......
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What was May's net figure the day Cameron resigned ?HYUFD said:
According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval ratingTGOHF said:
Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.JosiasJessop said:
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.TGOHF said:If May wins the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.0 -
Our dog opted to save his £25 p.m. insurance premiums and fund his own medical bills.OldKingCole said:
When you get vets bills........Beverley_C said:
One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.Cyclefree said:
That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.Beverley_C said:FPT:
I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?Cyclefree said:
The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.Beverley_C said:
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.David_Evershed said:
Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?MarqueeMark said:If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill.
Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK
I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......
Be thankful for the NHS.
Five years on he was doing quite well but had to dip into them when he cut his paw a few months ago.
I've told him once it's gone, it's gone.
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My reasoning for such a close result is that ever since 23rd June 2016 the country has been split down the middle and I expect this leadership ballot will be pretty much a reflection of that (albeit in a different way)MaxPB said:
If it was going to be that close then I think the MPs would organise it so she loses, it's worse for her to be told to step down by the cabinet than to lose.GIN1138 said:For May: 162
Against May: 1530 -
May still clearly leads Corbyn as best PM, that would not be true for some alternativesTGOHF said:
What was May's net figure the day Cameron resigned ?HYUFD said:
According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval ratingTGOHF said:
Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.JosiasJessop said:
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.TGOHF said:If May wins the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.0 -
Nicely avoided.HYUFD said:
May still clearly leads Corbyn as best PM, that would not be true for some alternativesTGOHF said:
What was May's net figure the day Cameron resigned ?HYUFD said:
According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval ratingTGOHF said:
Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.JosiasJessop said:
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.TGOHF said:If May wins the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.0 -
Interesting question. I don't know. True story - I was helping scrutinise contested ballot papers during a council recount once. Incumbent councillor was 24 votes behind. Returning Officer showed us a ballot paper with a perfectly drawn c*ck and balls complete with p*bic hair in the councillors box. Valid vote under ' voters intention is clear ' but we all looked at her to see if she was desperate enough to claim it. " I'll take that ! " she exclaimed.TheWhiteRabbit said:
is it like a GE? Can you draw an obscenity in the box and still have it count?YellowSubmarine said:Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) Tweeted:
The ballot paper of @margot_james_mp https://t.co/OpgE6CjNdR https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1072931880293621767?s=170 -
Same here, though maybe as low as 90 against.peter_from_putney said:
That's what I'm expecting +/- 5 votes either way.Benpointer said:May 219
No May 980 -
£1.39m now matched on Betfair's VONC market0
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Charles said:
@Beverley_C FPT
There are two fish in a tank
One of them turns to the other and says “how do you drive this thing?”
A man walks into a bar and orders a pack of cheese & onion and a pint. The barman says "We only have Ready Salted". "OK" says the man who then pays, drinks up and puts the crisps on his head and starts to leave
"Hey!" says the barman "why have you put those Ready Salted on your head?"
"Because you did not have any Cheese & Onion" says the man.
I know - it's hilarious.
It used to be an Irishman, but in these politically correct days....
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I blame Guppy HillaryPulpstar said:
Unfortunately, no really, orange guppy "Donald" has passed away.Beverley_C said:
One of my nieces trained as a vet, She has an enormous student debt. Unfortunately, she lives at the other end of the country. Fortunately I no longer have the cat.Cyclefree said:
That was done ages ago. This was to deal with an injury which led to a lot of unpleasant bleeding on my sofa and an emergency trip to the animal hospital, plus some work on his teeth.Beverley_C said:FPT:
I presume that there is an equally large hole in his future reproductive capacity?Cyclefree said:
The Cat is now back, a bit spaced out but otherwise OK and looking forward to running the country once he has had his special post-op dinner and a good sleep.Beverley_C said:
Yes. We already agreed this afternoon that a piece of bacon rind I took out of my kicthen sink's drain is the next DexEU SoS. Cyclefree and I drew up the Cabinet positions earlier and they are upthread.David_Evershed said:
Time for a different DEXEU Secretary of State?MarqueeMark said:If May survives - significant Cabinet reshuffle?
There is still some debate about the 18 goldfish however, but Charles is looking into the fish tank....
I too am looking forward to managing his PM's salary since there is an enormous hole in my savings caused by the vet's bill.
Glad that Tuss is otherwise OK
I rather wish one of my children had trained as a vet. They wouldn't want for money, whatever happens......0 -
Second votes seem to be fashionablePulpstar said:
Does Gove have the numbers ?YellowSubmarine said:Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) Tweeted:
The lists suggest about a third of Tory MPs have now voted https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/1072918939636809729?s=170 -
On the published timetable there is an hour between the voting closing and the result announcement. Betfair should move if the consensus on her wining is wrong. I've decided to go down with the ship on my modest Betfair trading position which has been untradable.0
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If you think that the Conservatives will vote Mrs May out of office, you are mistaken. That would mean handing the Party over to Brexiteers, which the main corpus of the Party will be unwilling to do. They would rather stick with May, warts and all, for a pro-European pseudo-Brexit.0
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Why did the chicken cross the road?Beverley_C said:
A man walks into a bar and orders a pack of cheese & onion and a pint. The barman says "We only have Ready Salted". "OK" says the man who then pays, drinks up and puts the crisps on his head and starts to leave
"Hey!" says the barman "why have you put those Ready Salted on your head?"
"Because you did not have any Cheese & Onion" says the man.
I know - it's hilarious.
It used to be an Irishman, but in these politically correct days....
To get to the idiot's house.
Knock Knock
Who's there?
The chicken...0 -
Corbyn has drifted today for next PM.
But if May wins, surely Corbyn should tighten - as May safe for a year and significant risk Govt loses confidence vote if WA passes.0 -
JackW said:
Only "faintly" ?!? ... quite a boost for Boris, some might intone ...Cyclefree said:Ken Clarke putting the boot in very wittily - and savagely - into Johnson, JR-M and Davies.
"Boris couldn't run a whelk stall. The idea I'd follow him on anything serious is faintly ridiculous."
Listen to the rest of the interview. He makes his contempt for Boris and the other Brexiteers clear.0 -
That's my kids favourite jokeScott_P said:
Why did the chicken cross the road?Beverley_C said:
A man walks into a bar and orders a pack of cheese & onion and a pint. The barman says "We only have Ready Salted". "OK" says the man who then pays, drinks up and puts the crisps on his head and starts to leave
"Hey!" says the barman "why have you put those Ready Salted on your head?"
"Because you did not have any Cheese & Onion" says the man.
I know - it's hilarious.
It used to be an Irishman, but in these politically correct days....
To get to the idiot's house.
Knock Knock
Who's there?
The chicken...0 -
Like Starmer?HYUFD said:
May still clearly leads Corbyn as best PM, that would not be true for some alternativesTGOHF said:
What was May's net figure the day Cameron resigned ?HYUFD said:
According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval ratingTGOHF said:
Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.JosiasJessop said:
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.TGOHF said:If May wins the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.0 -
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Of course we want her out.0
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Well Starmer v Gove would not be the ideal result of all this for ToriesSandyRentool said:
Like Starmer?HYUFD said:
May still clearly leads Corbyn as best PM, that would not be true for some alternativesTGOHF said:
What was May's net figure the day Cameron resigned ?HYUFD said:
According to Yougov tonight all alternative Tory leaders have a net negative approval ratingTGOHF said:
Yeah a party of Hesletine, Wollaston and Allen will sweep the board at the next GE.JosiasJessop said:
Unfortunately, it is likely that is May loses, the Conservatives lose.TGOHF said:If May wins the Conservatives lose.
And I hope the winnets who put in the 48 letters lose their seats at the GE or are deselected.0 -
You need to read the 4 part popbitch article on the history of the national inquirer. While it may not have influenced things it knows exactly what it needed to talk about to sell papers and what those people needed to do to appear continually in their papersDonny43 said:
I'm sure his campaign finance violations will be prosecuted exactly as hard as Obama's were, right?David_Evershed said:
They've got somebody but is it Trump?TheScreamingEagles said:Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1072927832727322624
Then again, the idea that the National Enquirer could influence anything, let alone a presidential election, is not entirely credible...
So influenced no but it probably was happy to help one if it’s biggest news personalities out once in a while0 -
I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.Black_Rook said:Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..
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Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.0
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Deputy PM. My cat won the PM spot earlier.DavidL said:Can I suggest my daughter's cat Cinnamon for PM. This is a cat who plans ahead, who can undertake complex tasks such as getting bags of treats from high level closed cupboards, who understands the consequences of his actions so that he proceeds to hide those bags of treats for later consumption when he is less likely to be troubled and who fully appreciates that when someone leaves a seat they leave some warmth that can be utilised if you move quickly.
I can’t recall when I last saw evidence of such clear thinking at Westminster. Possibly during the Coalition.
One of my other cats has learnt how to get food out of a closed Tupperware container. Definitely Chancellor material.0 -
I was once agent for a friend who was standing for the Tories in a no hope council seat in Birmingham city centre. The returning officer showed us the disputed ballots including one who had written "WANKER" next to Robert's name. I was proud to have it included as an unambiguous choice for one candidate only.YellowSubmarine said:
Interesting question. I don't know. True story - I was helping scrutinise contested ballot papers during a council recount once. Incumbent councillor was 24 votes behind. Returning Officer showed us a ballot paper with a perfectly drawn c*ck and balls complete with p*bic hair in the councillors box. Valid vote under ' voters intention is clear ' but we all looked at her to see if she was desperate enough to claim it. " I'll take that ! " she exclaimed.TheWhiteRabbit said:
is it like a GE? Can you draw an obscenity in the box and still have it count?YellowSubmarine said:Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) Tweeted:
The ballot paper of @margot_james_mp https://t.co/OpgE6CjNdR https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1072931880293621767?s=170 -
Quite - the reasons for May seem to besteve_garner said:Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.
1) She tries hard
2) It's not a good time
3) She hasn't lost the vote yet
Compelling..0 -
I think it is drifting away from her a bit. I fear she will get few of the uncommitted and not get some of the pledged.steve_garner said:Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.
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Plus no alternative polls any better, there is no better Deal on the table and indeed it is possible if she goes a No Dealer could winTGOHF said:
Quite - the reasons for May seem to besteve_garner said:Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.
1) She tries hard
2) It's not a good time
3) She hasn't lost the vote yet
Compelling..0 -
"Nobody else polls better" - compelling....HYUFD said:
Plus no alternative polls any better, there is no better Deal on the table and indeed it is possible if she goes a No Dealer could winTGOHF said:
Quite - the reasons for May seem to besteve_garner said:Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.
1) She tries hard
2) It's not a good time
3) She hasn't lost the vote yet
Compelling..0 -
It is given most poll worse and make a Corbyn premiership more likely, at least if someone takes over before the next general election now there is room for a fresh faceTGOHF said:
"Nobody else polls better" - compelling....HYUFD said:
Plus no alternative polls any better, there is no better Deal on the table and indeed it is possible if she goes a No Dealer could winTGOHF said:
Quite - the reasons for May seem to besteve_garner said:Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.
1) She tries hard
2) It's not a good time
3) She hasn't lost the vote yet
Compelling..0 -
Be sort of typical of the whole thing if despite the 48 letters going in less than 48 managed to VONC her.0
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What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on0
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I think that's probably right.viewcode said:
I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.Black_Rook said:Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..
But unless it's really, really close (like 55:45), then I don't see her stepping down.
For the record, I think the total number of votes cast will be rather fewer than people are forecasting, and there'll be at least 20 absentions/spoilt ballots.0 -
Total crap - other candidates have significant don't knows.HYUFD said:
It is given most poll worse and make a Corbyn premiership more likelyTGOHF said:
"Nobody else polls better" - compelling....HYUFD said:
Plus no alternative polls any better, there is no better Deal on the table and indeed it is possible if she goes a No Dealer could winTGOHF said:
Quite - the reasons for May seem to besteve_garner said:Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.
1) She tries hard
2) It's not a good time
3) She hasn't lost the vote yet
Compelling..
Its like remain - there are no positive reasons only excuses that things might be worse.
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157, 158 or more she will go on regardlessPloppikins said:What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
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You’re delusionalHYUFD said:
157, 158 or more she will go on regardlessPloppikins said:What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
0 -
4) She's bought a non-refundable Eurostar ticket for tomorrow's trip to Brussels and it would be a shame to waste it.TGOHF said:
Quite - the reasons for May seem to besteve_garner said:Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.
1) She tries hard
2) It's not a good time
3) She hasn't lost the vote yet
Compelling..0 -
Anything over 80 and she's in trouble.
Less than 60 she could probably call a win.0 -
Graham Brady getting in his final troll before the ERG storm his shredding rooms with pitchforks.solarflare said:Be sort of typical of the whole thing if despite the 48 letters going in less than 48 managed to VONC her.
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That was NOT true in 2003 when IDS was ousted.viewcode said:0 -
There’s still 9/1 on Betfair that she loses. In slightly from 19/2. Was 2/1 this morning.viewcode said:0 -
Nope those are the rulesAmpfieldAndy said:
You’re delusionalHYUFD said:
157, 158 or more she will go on regardlessPloppikins said:What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
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I hope very much that a heavily wounded Theresa May wins the vote and pledges to go on and on. Perhaps with a chunky cabinet reshuffle now that she has the Full Support of the party.
Having negotiated a deal so dead that it can't even be voted on by Parliament. Having been told repeatedly that the deal is the deal and no renegotiation. Having whats left of the Maybot somehow still in office unable to do literally anything at all will be great fun.
I hope Tory MPs considered this - saying "I will quit" makes them understand the leadership has to be resolved with someone else. And that the continuation of May makes a crash election far more likely. Which she will lead...0 -
Indeed it would - but only if it’s one way only.SandyRentool said:
4) She's bought a non-refundable Eurostar ticket for tomorrow's trip to Brussels and it would be a shame to waste it.TGOHF said:
Quite - the reasons for May seem to besteve_garner said:Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.
1) She tries hard
2) It's not a good time
3) She hasn't lost the vote yet
Compelling..0 -
Campaigns without positive reasons to vote for them can win, but... (Remain, Clinton)TGOHF said:
Quite - the reasons for May seem to besteve_garner said:Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.
1) She tries hard
2) It's not a good time
3) She hasn't lost the vote yet
Compelling..0 -
Good luck holding that line.HYUFD said:
Nope those are the rulesAmpfieldAndy said:
You’re delusionalHYUFD said:
157, 158 or more she will go on regardlessPloppikins said:What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
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Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice0
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Gove has over -50% net negative for instance.TGOHF said:
Total crap - other candidates have significant don't knows.HYUFD said:
It is given most poll worse and make a Corbyn premiership more likelyTGOHF said:
"Nobody else polls better" - compelling....HYUFD said:
Plus no alternative polls any better, there is no better Deal on the table and indeed it is possible if she goes a No Dealer could winTGOHF said:
Quite - the reasons for May seem to besteve_garner said:Given the hopeless way May has managed Brexit I can't see a positive reason for voting for her. My instinct is that this is going to be close.
1) She tries hard
2) It's not a good time
3) She hasn't lost the vote yet
Compelling..
Its like remain - there are no positive reasons only excuses that things might be worse.
May has got a Deal which is more than many would have and as I said if she goes a No Dealer is possible.
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Oh well done. That doesn’t mean she wouldn’t get the hint. It would be impossible for her to retain any authority or credibility if half her party have no confidence in her.HYUFD said:
Nope those are the rulesAmpfieldAndy said:
You’re delusionalHYUFD said:
157, 158 or more she will go on regardlessPloppikins said:What would the worse result be? 200+ for may but 100+ against perhaps. A third of her party having no confidence in her would be extremely damaging but shed be within her right to plod on
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If she just about wins and decides to carry on, there’s probably Cabinet resignations coming tomorrow. It’s going be like Thatcher in 1990, albeit under a different system.RochdalePioneers said:I hope very much that a heavily wounded Theresa May wins the vote and pledges to go on and on. Perhaps with a chunky cabinet reshuffle now that she has the Full Support of the party.
Having negotiated a deal so dead that it can't even be voted on by Parliament. Having been told repeatedly that the deal is the deal and no renegotiation. Having whats left of the Maybot somehow still in office unable to do literally anything at all will be great fun.
I hope Tory MPs considered this - saying "I will quit" makes them understand the leadership has to be resolved with someone else. And that the continuation of May makes a crash election far more likely. Which she will lead...0 -
Seriously? You are joking? What would the point be of abstaining or spoiling a ballot paper? An appalling dereliction of duty if any Toty MP did.rcs1000 said:
I think that's probably right.viewcode said:
I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.Black_Rook said:Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..
But unless it's really, really close (like 55:45), then I don't see her stepping down.
For the record, I think the total number of votes cast will be rather fewer than people are forecasting, and there'll be at least 20 absentions/spoilt ballots.
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That is a simple maority of 1Pulpstar said:Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice
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In the US, the view is increasingly that Trump is likely to end up prosecuted post-Presidency. There's tax evasion regarding the Fred Trump legacy. There's campaign finance violations. There's potentially obstruction of justice. The first of these is by far the most serious charges, and is the one that has been the subject of the least headlines.TheScreamingEagles said:Ladies and gentleman, I think we've got him.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1072927832727322624
Some of my conservative friends - engaging in a little bit of wishful thinking, perhaps - think that the best way forward would be for Trumo to stand down ahead of the 2020 election so that President Pence can preemptively pardon him. (As Ford did with Nixon.)0 -
I think you've answered your own question.Stark_Dawning said:
Seriously? You are joking? What would the point be of abstaining or spoiling a ballot paper? An appalling dereliction of duty if any Toty MP did.rcs1000 said:
I think that's probably right.viewcode said:
I have not got a scooby. Seriously. I couldn't even guess. I think she'll win less than expected and everybody will go "Oh, that was closer that I thought". But as for whether she'll win or lose: no idea.Black_Rook said:Since the consensus is that she's going to win with room to spare, I'm going to predict that they vote her out..
But unless it's really, really close (like 55:45), then I don't see her stepping down.
For the record, I think the total number of votes cast will be rather fewer than people are forecasting, and there'll be at least 20 absentions/spoilt ballots.0 -
Not necessarilyBig_G_NorthWales said:
That is a simple maority of 1Pulpstar said:Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice
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Indeed. Having won by a simple majority of 1 her leadership is safe and absolutely nothing can stop her for at least a year.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That is a simple maority of 1Pulpstar said:Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice
Huzzah!0 -
https://twitter.com/brianklaas/status/1072927554716254208rcs1000 said:In the US, the view is increasingly that Trump is likely to end up prosecuted post-Presidency. There's tax evasion regarding the Fred Trump legacy. There's campaign finance violations. There's potentially obstruction of justice. The first of these is by far the most serious charges, and is the one that has been the subject of the least headlines.
Some of my conservative friends - engaging in a little bit of wishful thinking, perhaps - think that the best way forward would be for Trumo to stand down ahead of the 2020 election so that President Pence can preemptively pardon him. (As Ford did with Nixon.)0 -
Not sure why you say that to be honestPulpstar said:
Not necessarilyBig_G_NorthWales said:
That is a simple maority of 1Pulpstar said:Does she need 159 or will a simple majority suffice
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When are we expecting results?0
