politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and
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Gove said "100%".MarqueeMark said:The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
As in 100% there will be a vote on her deal Tuesday...0 -
I think the Whip knows only too well the numbers don't add up. He's been telling her for days, hence the pulling of the MV.TGOHF said:
As one Tory MP said on R5 : "stamina isn't strategy".grabcocque said:
If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.glw said:
That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.Scott_P said:0 -
Colours nailed to mast. I've invested a whole £25 on Theresa May losing at 3/1 less Betfair's commission. There is not much liquidity yet but activity should pick up this afternoon.0
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Election Maps thinks it's C177 NC81 so far (68.6%).
You'd think some of those Cs will be lying payroll though - say 10. Assuming the 58 undeclared break evenly (big assumption I know), that leaves it at 65/35, which isn't pretty for the PM.
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Brexiteers are all duplicitous bastards. Always have been, always will be, every single one of them. There's not an ounce of honour or intelligence amongst them.MarqueeMark said:The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
They can't help it. They were bastards to Major, they were bastards to Cameron, and now they're being bastards to May.
You support bastards.
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He'll still get his gong in her resignation honours list.....TGOHF said:
Will Olly Robbins still get his bonus this year ?grabcocque said:
Or possibly undead.TGOHF said:Ding dong the witch is dead.
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Someone who toiled through wind and snow and gloom of night to deliver me a bucket of cold vomit might feel somewhat underappreciated.TGOHF said:
As one Tory MP said on R5 : "stamina isn't strategy".grabcocque said:
If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.glw said:
That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.Scott_P said:
That said, I don't mind her deal. Brexit is Brexit. I voted to Leave, I didn't get to specify that it had to be with two somersaults and a reverse pike.0 -
For me the absolute key is this - in the privacy of the ballot box will the remain Tory MPs vote to knife her, in the hope that in the ensuing chaos Brexit is somehow cancelled. If they vote for May, Brexit is virtually assured. If they think like this, none of them are going to admit this publicly. I am betting on her to lose. She looks weak. They don't really like her. In the ballot box, how many Conservative MPs are really going to vote to support her? Maybe some to save their jobs out of fear of an election, but probably not a vast number. Keep her or get rid of her and see what happens - I think they will take option 2 given the chance of doing so without any accountability. I am loading up on the 4 on her to lose.0
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IIRC the original "duplicitous bastard" was Lord Carrington (per Al Haig) which almost makes it sound like a compliment.JosiasJessop said:
Brexiteers are all duplicitous bastards. Always have been, always will be, every single one of them. There's not an ounce of honour or intelligence amongst them.MarqueeMark said:The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
They can't help it. They were bastards to Major, they were bastards to Cameron, and now they're being bastards to May.
You support bastards.0 -
Just followed suit.DecrepitJohnL said:Colours nailed to mast. I've invested a whole £25 on Theresa May losing at 3/1 less Betfair's commission. There is not much liquidity yet but activity should pick up this afternoon.
I think she'll scrape through, but worth a flutter with a couple of quid.0 -
Everywhere I look, I see bastards.....JosiasJessop said:
Brexiteers are all duplicitous bastards. Always have been, always will be, every single one of them. There's not an ounce of honour or intelligence amongst them.MarqueeMark said:The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
They can't help it. They were bastards to Major, they were bastards to Cameron, and now they're being bastards to May.
You support bastards.0 -
Yes, as I mentioned below, the remainer calculations of delay - out of the control of any future leader, rather than May's delay calculations - could end being very important. May presented this as a danger in her speech this morning, but some may see this as a possible benefit.bazzer72 said:For me the absolute key is this - in the privacy of the ballot box will the remain Tory MPs vote to knife her, in the hope that in the ensuing chaos Brexit is somehow cancelled. If they vote for May, Brexit is virtually assured. If they think like this, none of them are going to admit this publicly. I am betting on her to lose. She looks weak. They don't really like her. In the ballot box, how many Conservative MPs are really going to vote to support her? Maybe some to save their jobs out of fear of an election, but probably not a vast number. Keep her or get rid of her and see what happens - I think they will take option 2 given the chance of doing so without any accountability. I am loading up on the 4 on her to lose.
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I'm fully behind the PM and think she'll win. ^____________~0
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That is what Tory MPs need to also think about. Can they face a GE with another one of her barnstorming campaigns, criss-crossing the country avoiding the public, repeating 'stable' and ducking out of TV interviews and debates?Norm said:That 2019 GE point is an interesting one. Despite the FTPA it must at least be an outside chance. May at the helm?
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I won't ask how near you are to a mirror ...MarqueeMark said:
Everywhere I look, I see bastards.....JosiasJessop said:
Brexiteers are all duplicitous bastards. Always have been, always will be, every single one of them. There's not an ounce of honour or intelligence amongst them.MarqueeMark said:The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
They can't help it. They were bastards to Major, they were bastards to Cameron, and now they're being bastards to May.
You support bastards. 0 -
Mrs MAndyJS said:Desmond Swayne on Radio Five Live says he hasn't made up his mind yet. First Tory MP I've heard say that.
He says he didn't submit a letter, and didn't want a contest. But could still vote against May.
The pulling of the parliamentary vote has likely upset those on both sides.rottenborough said:Major Remainer comes out for May:
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/10728021143285145600 -
*Private voice* 1.26 looks a big lay to me.0
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Just looking at pb.com.....JosiasJessop said:
I won't ask how near you are to a mirror ...MarqueeMark said:
Everywhere I look, I see bastards.....JosiasJessop said:
Brexiteers are all duplicitous bastards. Always have been, always will be, every single one of them. There's not an ounce of honour or intelligence amongst them.MarqueeMark said:The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
They can't help it. They were bastards to Major, they were bastards to Cameron, and now they're being bastards to May.
You support bastards.0 -
The statements of public support by MPs are ( largely ) noise when we need signal.0
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1.22 amazingly short.YellowSubmarine said:The statements of public support by MPs are ( largely ) noise when we need signal.
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It's amazing to me that she is now nearly a 1/5 chance; what are these people seeing we are missing?0
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I think she'll probably hold on but betting against is probably going to be value. There'll most likely be a rumour at some stage tonight that she's lost even if she hasn't, and the markets will overreact to it.Pulpstar said:
1.22 amazingly short.YellowSubmarine said:The statements of public support by MPs are ( largely ) noise when we need signal.
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Tonight will at least give us some accurate seasonal polling on how many turkeys vote for Christmas.....0
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183/810
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It could well get shorterPulpstar said:
1.22 amazingly short.YellowSubmarine said:The statements of public support by MPs are ( largely ) noise when we need signal.
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Public statements well in favour of May.
But 1/5 does represent the risk fairly enough, I think, that they are a bunch of hypocrites.0 -
I’m not saying Gove will vote for her but he was sent out to say the vote would happen by no 10 immediately before it was cannedTGOHF said:
Gove said "100%".MarqueeMark said:The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
As in 100% there will be a vote on her deal Tuesday...0 -
If a vast majority of Tory MPs support her publicly and then these numbers are very different to the outcome of the private vote, the Conservatives are basically advertising themselves as untrustworthy liars. Not a good look.0
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Welcome to PB, Mr. Ping.
Bet against May, at 1.19. Odds still declining.0 -
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Signal is Tory MPs saying they'll vote against, or are not sure. Those are probably reliable.YellowSubmarine said:The statements of public support by MPs are ( largely ) noise when we need signal.
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I took some no confidence @ 3/1 and doubled up at 5/1.
This could swing wildly during the day.0 -
186/82 (69.4%) with 48 unknowns.
Betfair roughly TM 5/6, vile traitors 1/6.
Thresholds: 200, 211 (2/3), 217 (rebels <100), and for pure amusement 268 (rebels=48)0 -
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Agreed.AndyJS said:
Signal is Tory MPs saying they'll vote against, or are not sure. Those are probably reliable.YellowSubmarine said:The statements of public support by MPs are ( largely ) noise when we need signal.
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Bad news for Apprentice fans if Lord Sugar is bounced for the announcement of the result.
Is that an omen? Jeremy Hunt managed to get a whole series delayed because of Sugar's Labour links. Has anyone backed our esteemed Foreign Secretary at, say, 66/1?0 -
i think public declarations will end up at 210/100, take into accounting people lying and you have 190/120 or 180/130.0
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Where do I sign?Pulpstar said:I'm fully behind the PM and think she'll win. ^____________~
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184 Confidence 81 No ConfidenceAndyJS said:
Signal is Tory MPs saying they'll vote against, or are not sure. Those are probably reliable.YellowSubmarine said:The statements of public support by MPs are ( largely ) noise when we need signal.
The NCs are probably not bluffing.
It takes about 40% of the Cs to be bluffing for Mrs May to lose this. Seems unlikely.0 -
Given so little is going on in politics at the moment, very disappointed not to see a new thread on what tracks would make "Now that's what I call music for people who don't like music" Christmas compilation album.0
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Sounds about right.Scott_P said:0 -
Difficult to believe he doesn't know the answer at this late stage.Scott_P said:0 -
110/1DecrepitJohnL said:Bad news for Apprentice fans if Lord Sugar is bounced for the announcement of the result.
Is that an omen? Jeremy Hunt managed to get a whole series delayed because of Sugar's Labour links. Has anyone backed our esteemed Foreign Secretary at, say, 66/1?0 -
Asking which way they will vote before deciding!Scott_P said:0 -
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THought somebody would come up with that at some point todayScott_P said:0 -
Do people still watch that show? Its gone seriously downhill since the days of Katie Hopkins...let that just sink in.DecrepitJohnL said:Bad news for Apprentice fans if Lord Sugar is bounced for the announcement of the result.
Is that an omen? Jeremy Hunt managed to get a whole series delayed because of Sugar's Labour links. Has anyone backed our esteemed Foreign Secretary at, say, 66/1?0 -
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If anyone wants an explanation of how we got here I give you
https://twitter.com/cstross/status/10728065678824325130 -
Every wednesdayFrancisUrquhart said:
Do people still watch that show? Its gone seriously downhill since the days of Katie Hopkins...let that just sink in.DecrepitJohnL said:Bad news for Apprentice fans if Lord Sugar is bounced for the announcement of the result.
Is that an omen? Jeremy Hunt managed to get a whole series delayed because of Sugar's Labour links. Has anyone backed our esteemed Foreign Secretary at, say, 66/1?
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That sounds like #FakeNews as it was reported only yesterday that an ERG delegation had been talking with Sir Graham about how they could fast track the leadership procees?Scott_P said:0 -
You just cannot believe the Confident vote, you may not be able to believe the Not confident vote, but should be much more accurate. Any MP is playing to the crowd - for some this may mean appearing disloyal whilst voting for her, but for many more it will to be appear loyal, and then move after a loss.Andrew said:Election Maps thinks it's C177 NC81 so far (68.6%).
You'd think some of those Cs will be lying payroll though - say 10. Assuming the 58 undeclared break evenly (big assumption I know), that leaves it at 65/35, which isn't pretty for the PM.0 -
I love this BF confidence vote market; it's a proper oldfashioned betting scrap which reminds me of open outcry futures pits. Little stats/data to go on - just a raw fight with lots of volatility based on money entering the market rather than new information being assessed rationally.0
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81 definite NOs and 184 maybes. Will 50 maybes switch to No? Possibly not. They despise May but genuinely don't want to choose someone else?0
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I don’t trust the ElectionMaps tally. It seems to be assuming C/NC from wider positioning (e.g. on the Withdrawal Agreement) rather than on specific pledges today. For example, my local MP is listed as NC but I’m pretty sure he hasn’t made a public statement yet.Pulpstar said:183/81
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187/830
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Superdry warns worse to come as profits plunge
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46535682
I think their problem is they have become clothes for people who like Coldplay.0 -
The fact that Mrs May is doing PMQs today only adds more interest to the day. She's very unlikely to say something that will change anyone's vote tonight, but you never know.0
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Sugar said this morning on ITV that he would emigrate if Corbyn became PM.DecrepitJohnL said:Bad news for Apprentice fans if Lord Sugar is bounced for the announcement of the result.
Is that an omen? Jeremy Hunt managed to get a whole series delayed because of Sugar's Labour links. Has anyone backed our esteemed Foreign Secretary at, say, 66/1?0 -
All yellow?FrancisUrquhart said:Superdry warns worse to come as profits plunge
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46535682
I think their problem is they have become clothes for people who like Coldplay.0 -
Also the chance that wealthy antagonists are trying to spin the market one way or the other.bazzer72 said:I love this BF confidence vote market; it's a proper oldfashioned betting scrap which reminds me of open outcry futures pits. Little stats/data to go on - just a raw fight with lots of volatility based on money entering the market rather than new information being assessed rationally.
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I agree, you can't for instance use general positions on Brexit to work out how people will vote.El_Capitano said:
I don’t trust the ElectionMaps tally. It seems to be assuming C/NC from wider positioning (e.g. on the Withdrawal Agreement) rather than on specific pledges today. For example, my local MP is listed as NC but I’m pretty sure he hasn’t made a public statement yet.Pulpstar said:183/81
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After she loses the vote was their thinking.GIN1138 said:That sounds like #FakeNews as it was reported only yesterday that an ERG delegation had been talking with Sir Graham about how they could fast track the leadership procees?
They didn't expect the vote tonight. They wanted to defeat her on Monday, then have their chosen candidate anointed quickly thereafter0 -
Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
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Sky News Breaking
Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union
and presumably re-set article 50?0 -
It's a market based almost entirely on how much we believe Conservative MPs are telling the truth.bazzer72 said:I love this BF confidence vote market; it's a proper oldfashioned betting scrap which reminds me of open outcry futures pits. Little stats/data to go on - just a raw fight with lots of volatility based on money entering the market rather than new information being assessed rationally.
I can only quote Sir Humphrey: "You have to get behind someone before you stab them in the back..."0 -
Surely anything in triple figures against May is total crap...FF43 said:81 definite NOs and 184 maybes. Will 50 maybes switch to No? Possibly not. They despise May but genuinely don't want to choose someone else?
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https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1072808903275094016 Might add some spice into the mix of numbers.0
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I’ll repost this from last nightrottenborough said:
Talk about hostage to fortune.....
I think Javid will be PM by the end of the week
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/953068/Sajid-Javid-EU-Brexit-news-Brexiteer-Remainer-Home-Secretary
I know it’s the express but it sets out that Javid was Eurosceptic, voted remain as worried about economics of Brexit, but has argued for clean Brexit to take advantage of benefits of leaving.
He has also been effective as Home Secretary - sorted Windrush, medical marijuana, advocate for global immigration policy
And as I said on here on Monday look on google street view for Stapleton road Bristol - more East Ham rather than Eton, more Oldham rather than Old School Tie. A true watershed moment with the BAME U.K. PM - a way to change the narrative.0 -
3/1 at the moment.bazzer72 said:I love this BF confidence vote market; it's a proper oldfashioned betting scrap which reminds me of open outcry futures pits. Little stats/data to go on - just a raw fight with lots of volatility based on money entering the market rather than new information being assessed rationally.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1524375910 -
Using ERG referendum logic, a 1 vote win for May will allow her to say she has full support of the Conservative party and can ignore the losers. The will of the majority and all that. The ERG could then campaign for a proper MP vote.glw said:
That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.Scott_P said:0 -
I have to say I wasn't expecting to wake up to this ground breaking news this morning.....Team Sky will be no more.0
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Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.0 -
May, you live in interesting times.0
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Agreed re the binary betting outcome re the politics. You could get against her and lose your money on a result that would still see her out by the weekend.TGOHF said:Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
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In reality, despite what the MayBot has been indicating, it is comes down to a matter of a few votes, she is more toast than Toast of London eating a toasty.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/1072808903275094016 Might add some spice into the mix of numbers.
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Oddly she was the first to call for May to go after the fun of GE2017.rottenborough said:Major Remainer comes out for May:
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/10728021143285145600 -
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A new leader, a re-set of A50 and a general election are just some of the highlights we can look forward to in the New Year.Slackbladder said:Sky News Breaking
Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union
and presumably re-set article 50?
Merry Christmas.
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Another undecided MP — Grant Shapps.0
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Still not seeing a GE next year.GIN1138 said:
A new leader, a re-set of A50 and a general election are just some of the highlights we can look forward to in the New Year.Slackbladder said:Sky News Breaking
Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union
and presumably re-set article 50?
Merry Christmas.0 -
And is Mr Green also undecided?AndyJS said:Another undecided MP — Grant Shapps.
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They've been a victim of their own success. Even I have Superdry gear!FrancisUrquhart said:Superdry warns worse to come as profits plunge
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46535682
I think their problem is they have become clothes for people who like Coldplay.0 -
You can get 3/1 on Oct 2018 - Dec 2018 as TMay's exit date on BF exchange right now.YellowSubmarine said:
Agreed re the binary betting outcome re the politics. You could get against her and lose your money on a result that would still see her out by the weekend.TGOHF said:Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
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I think I'd lie if I was a Tory MP now, voting for May would be disastrous.0
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I've not seen this much excitement, since Coldplay last announced a world tour.DanSmith said:0 -
When I have a moment I'll categorise into those actually backing May and those decrying a leadership contest taking place.dr_spyn said:Spectator is collating tweets backing May.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-full-list-of-tory-mps-backing-theresa-may/
as others posted public support isn't always reflected in a secret ballot.0 -
I'm on the other side of that !kyf_100 said:
You can get 3/1 on Oct 2018 - Dec 2018 as TMay's exit date on BF exchange right now.YellowSubmarine said:
Agreed re the binary betting outcome re the politics. You could get against her and lose your money on a result that would still see her out by the weekend.TGOHF said:Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
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Don't fancy a no dealer at the helm.....Nemtynakht said:
I’ll repost this from last nightrottenborough said:
Talk about hostage to fortune.....
I think Javid will be PM by the end of the week
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/953068/Sajid-Javid-EU-Brexit-news-Brexiteer-Remainer-Home-Secretary
I know it’s the express but it sets out that Javid was Eurosceptic, voted remain as worried about economics of Brexit, but has argued for clean Brexit to take advantage of benefits of leaving.
He has also been effective as Home Secretary - sorted Windrush, medical marijuana, advocate for global immigration policy
And as I said on here on Monday look on google street view for Stapleton road Bristol - more East Ham rather than Eton, more Oldham rather than Old School Tie. A true watershed moment with the BAME U.K. PM - a way to change the narrative.0 -
Damian Green says he'll vote in favour of Mrs May.FrancisUrquhart said:
And is Mr Green also undecided?AndyJS said:Another undecided MP — Grant Shapps.
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