The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
Gove said "100%".
As in 100% there will be a vote on her deal Tuesday...
That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.
If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.
As one Tory MP said on R5 : "stamina isn't strategy".
I think the Whip knows only too well the numbers don't add up. He's been telling her for days, hence the pulling of the MV.
Colours nailed to mast. I've invested a whole £25 on Theresa May losing at 3/1 less Betfair's commission. There is not much liquidity yet but activity should pick up this afternoon.
Election Maps thinks it's C177 NC81 so far (68.6%).
You'd think some of those Cs will be lying payroll though - say 10. Assuming the 58 undeclared break evenly (big assumption I know), that leaves it at 65/35, which isn't pretty for the PM.
The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
Brexiteers are all duplicitous bastards. Always have been, always will be, every single one of them. There's not an ounce of honour or intelligence amongst them.
They can't help it. They were bastards to Major, they were bastards to Cameron, and now they're being bastards to May.
That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.
If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.
As one Tory MP said on R5 : "stamina isn't strategy".
Someone who toiled through wind and snow and gloom of night to deliver me a bucket of cold vomit might feel somewhat underappreciated.
That said, I don't mind her deal. Brexit is Brexit. I voted to Leave, I didn't get to specify that it had to be with two somersaults and a reverse pike.
For me the absolute key is this - in the privacy of the ballot box will the remain Tory MPs vote to knife her, in the hope that in the ensuing chaos Brexit is somehow cancelled. If they vote for May, Brexit is virtually assured. If they think like this, none of them are going to admit this publicly. I am betting on her to lose. She looks weak. They don't really like her. In the ballot box, how many Conservative MPs are really going to vote to support her? Maybe some to save their jobs out of fear of an election, but probably not a vast number. Keep her or get rid of her and see what happens - I think they will take option 2 given the chance of doing so without any accountability. I am loading up on the 4 on her to lose.
The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
Brexiteers are all duplicitous bastards. Always have been, always will be, every single one of them. There's not an ounce of honour or intelligence amongst them.
They can't help it. They were bastards to Major, they were bastards to Cameron, and now they're being bastards to May.
You support bastards.
IIRC the original "duplicitous bastard" was Lord Carrington (per Al Haig) which almost makes it sound like a compliment.
Colours nailed to mast. I've invested a whole £25 on Theresa May losing at 3/1 less Betfair's commission. There is not much liquidity yet but activity should pick up this afternoon.
Just followed suit.
I think she'll scrape through, but worth a flutter with a couple of quid.
The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
Brexiteers are all duplicitous bastards. Always have been, always will be, every single one of them. There's not an ounce of honour or intelligence amongst them.
They can't help it. They were bastards to Major, they were bastards to Cameron, and now they're being bastards to May.
For me the absolute key is this - in the privacy of the ballot box will the remain Tory MPs vote to knife her, in the hope that in the ensuing chaos Brexit is somehow cancelled. If they vote for May, Brexit is virtually assured. If they think like this, none of them are going to admit this publicly. I am betting on her to lose. She looks weak. They don't really like her. In the ballot box, how many Conservative MPs are really going to vote to support her? Maybe some to save their jobs out of fear of an election, but probably not a vast number. Keep her or get rid of her and see what happens - I think they will take option 2 given the chance of doing so without any accountability. I am loading up on the 4 on her to lose.
Yes, as I mentioned below, the remainer calculations of delay - out of the control of any future leader, rather than May's delay calculations - could end being very important. May presented this as a danger in her speech this morning, but some may see this as a possible benefit.
That 2019 GE point is an interesting one. Despite the FTPA it must at least be an outside chance. May at the helm?
That is what Tory MPs need to also think about. Can they face a GE with another one of her barnstorming campaigns, criss-crossing the country avoiding the public, repeating 'stable' and ducking out of TV interviews and debates?
The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
Brexiteers are all duplicitous bastards. Always have been, always will be, every single one of them. There's not an ounce of honour or intelligence amongst them.
They can't help it. They were bastards to Major, they were bastards to Cameron, and now they're being bastards to May.
The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
Brexiteers are all duplicitous bastards. Always have been, always will be, every single one of them. There's not an ounce of honour or intelligence amongst them.
They can't help it. They were bastards to Major, they were bastards to Cameron, and now they're being bastards to May.
The statements of public support by MPs are ( largely ) noise when we need signal.
1.22 amazingly short.
I think she'll probably hold on but betting against is probably going to be value. There'll most likely be a rumour at some stage tonight that she's lost even if she hasn't, and the markets will overreact to it.
The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.
Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
Gove said "100%".
As in 100% there will be a vote on her deal Tuesday...
I’m not saying Gove will vote for her but he was sent out to say the vote would happen by no 10 immediately before it was canned
If a vast majority of Tory MPs support her publicly and then these numbers are very different to the outcome of the private vote, the Conservatives are basically advertising themselves as untrustworthy liars. Not a good look.
Bad news for Apprentice fans if Lord Sugar is bounced for the announcement of the result.
Is that an omen? Jeremy Hunt managed to get a whole series delayed because of Sugar's Labour links. Has anyone backed our esteemed Foreign Secretary at, say, 66/1?
Given so little is going on in politics at the moment, very disappointed not to see a new thread on what tracks would make "Now that's what I call music for people who don't like music" Christmas compilation album.
Bad news for Apprentice fans if Lord Sugar is bounced for the announcement of the result.
Is that an omen? Jeremy Hunt managed to get a whole series delayed because of Sugar's Labour links. Has anyone backed our esteemed Foreign Secretary at, say, 66/1?
Bad news for Apprentice fans if Lord Sugar is bounced for the announcement of the result.
Is that an omen? Jeremy Hunt managed to get a whole series delayed because of Sugar's Labour links. Has anyone backed our esteemed Foreign Secretary at, say, 66/1?
Do people still watch that show? Its gone seriously downhill since the days of Katie Hopkins...let that just sink in.
Bad news for Apprentice fans if Lord Sugar is bounced for the announcement of the result.
Is that an omen? Jeremy Hunt managed to get a whole series delayed because of Sugar's Labour links. Has anyone backed our esteemed Foreign Secretary at, say, 66/1?
Do people still watch that show? Its gone seriously downhill since the days of Katie Hopkins...let that just sink in.
That sounds like #FakeNews as it was reported only yesterday that an ERG delegation had been talking with Sir Graham about how they could fast track the leadership procees?
Election Maps thinks it's C177 NC81 so far (68.6%).
You'd think some of those Cs will be lying payroll though - say 10. Assuming the 58 undeclared break evenly (big assumption I know), that leaves it at 65/35, which isn't pretty for the PM.
You just cannot believe the Confident vote, you may not be able to believe the Not confident vote, but should be much more accurate. Any MP is playing to the crowd - for some this may mean appearing disloyal whilst voting for her, but for many more it will to be appear loyal, and then move after a loss.
I love this BF confidence vote market; it's a proper oldfashioned betting scrap which reminds me of open outcry futures pits. Little stats/data to go on - just a raw fight with lots of volatility based on money entering the market rather than new information being assessed rationally.
I don’t trust the ElectionMaps tally. It seems to be assuming C/NC from wider positioning (e.g. on the Withdrawal Agreement) rather than on specific pledges today. For example, my local MP is listed as NC but I’m pretty sure he hasn’t made a public statement yet.
The fact that Mrs May is doing PMQs today only adds more interest to the day. She's very unlikely to say something that will change anyone's vote tonight, but you never know.
Bad news for Apprentice fans if Lord Sugar is bounced for the announcement of the result.
Is that an omen? Jeremy Hunt managed to get a whole series delayed because of Sugar's Labour links. Has anyone backed our esteemed Foreign Secretary at, say, 66/1?
Sugar said this morning on ITV that he would emigrate if Corbyn became PM.
I love this BF confidence vote market; it's a proper oldfashioned betting scrap which reminds me of open outcry futures pits. Little stats/data to go on - just a raw fight with lots of volatility based on money entering the market rather than new information being assessed rationally.
Also the chance that wealthy antagonists are trying to spin the market one way or the other.
I don’t trust the ElectionMaps tally. It seems to be assuming C/NC from wider positioning (e.g. on the Withdrawal Agreement) rather than on specific pledges today. For example, my local MP is listed as NC but I’m pretty sure he hasn’t made a public statement yet.
I agree, you can't for instance use general positions on Brexit to work out how people will vote.
That sounds like #FakeNews as it was reported only yesterday that an ERG delegation had been talking with Sir Graham about how they could fast track the leadership procees?
After she loses the vote was their thinking.
They didn't expect the vote tonight. They wanted to defeat her on Monday, then have their chosen candidate anointed quickly thereafter
I love this BF confidence vote market; it's a proper oldfashioned betting scrap which reminds me of open outcry futures pits. Little stats/data to go on - just a raw fight with lots of volatility based on money entering the market rather than new information being assessed rationally.
It's a market based almost entirely on how much we believe Conservative MPs are telling the truth.
I can only quote Sir Humphrey: "You have to get behind someone before you stab them in the back..."
I know it’s the express but it sets out that Javid was Eurosceptic, voted remain as worried about economics of Brexit, but has argued for clean Brexit to take advantage of benefits of leaving.
He has also been effective as Home Secretary - sorted Windrush, medical marijuana, advocate for global immigration policy
And as I said on here on Monday look on google street view for Stapleton road Bristol - more East Ham rather than Eton, more Oldham rather than Old School Tie. A true watershed moment with the BAME U.K. PM - a way to change the narrative.
I love this BF confidence vote market; it's a proper oldfashioned betting scrap which reminds me of open outcry futures pits. Little stats/data to go on - just a raw fight with lots of volatility based on money entering the market rather than new information being assessed rationally.
That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.
Using ERG referendum logic, a 1 vote win for May will allow her to say she has full support of the Conservative party and can ignore the losers. The will of the majority and all that. The ERG could then campaign for a proper MP vote.
Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.
Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
Agreed re the binary betting outcome re the politics. You could get against her and lose your money on a result that would still see her out by the weekend.
In reality, despite what the MayBot has been indicating, it is comes down to a matter of a few votes, she is more toast than Toast of London eating a toasty.
Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
Agreed re the binary betting outcome re the politics. You could get against her and lose your money on a result that would still see her out by the weekend.
You can get 3/1 on Oct 2018 - Dec 2018 as TMay's exit date on BF exchange right now.
Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.
Agreed re the binary betting outcome re the politics. You could get against her and lose your money on a result that would still see her out by the weekend.
You can get 3/1 on Oct 2018 - Dec 2018 as TMay's exit date on BF exchange right now.
I know it’s the express but it sets out that Javid was Eurosceptic, voted remain as worried about economics of Brexit, but has argued for clean Brexit to take advantage of benefits of leaving.
He has also been effective as Home Secretary - sorted Windrush, medical marijuana, advocate for global immigration policy
And as I said on here on Monday look on google street view for Stapleton road Bristol - more East Ham rather than Eton, more Oldham rather than Old School Tie. A true watershed moment with the BAME U.K. PM - a way to change the narrative.
Comments
As in 100% there will be a vote on her deal Tuesday...
https://twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1072802114328514560
You'd think some of those Cs will be lying payroll though - say 10. Assuming the 58 undeclared break evenly (big assumption I know), that leaves it at 65/35, which isn't pretty for the PM.
They can't help it. They were bastards to Major, they were bastards to Cameron, and now they're being bastards to May.
You support bastards.
That said, I don't mind her deal. Brexit is Brexit. I voted to Leave, I didn't get to specify that it had to be with two somersaults and a reverse pike.
I think she'll scrape through, but worth a flutter with a couple of quid.
But 1/5 does represent the risk fairly enough, I think, that they are a bunch of hypocrites.
I lost my @pong logon/password.
Bet against May, at 1.19. Odds still declining.
This could swing wildly during the day.
Betfair roughly TM 5/6, vile traitors 1/6.
Thresholds: 200, 211 (2/3), 217 (rebels <100), and for pure amusement 268 (rebels=48)
Is that an omen? Jeremy Hunt managed to get a whole series delayed because of Sugar's Labour links. Has anyone backed our esteemed Foreign Secretary at, say, 66/1?
The NCs are probably not bluffing.
It takes about 40% of the Cs to be bluffing for Mrs May to lose this. Seems unlikely.
https://twitter.com/matt_dathan/status/1072806170279190533
https://twitter.com/cstross/status/1072806567882432513
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-46535682
I think their problem is they have become clothes for people who like Coldplay.
They didn't expect the vote tonight. They wanted to defeat her on Monday, then have their chosen candidate anointed quickly thereafter
Verified account @SkyNewsBreak
Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union
and presumably re-set article 50?
I can only quote Sir Humphrey: "You have to get behind someone before you stab them in the back..."
Talk about hostage to fortune.....
I think Javid will be PM by the end of the week
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/953068/Sajid-Javid-EU-Brexit-news-Brexiteer-Remainer-Home-Secretary
I know it’s the express but it sets out that Javid was Eurosceptic, voted remain as worried about economics of Brexit, but has argued for clean Brexit to take advantage of benefits of leaving.
He has also been effective as Home Secretary - sorted Windrush, medical marijuana, advocate for global immigration policy
And as I said on here on Monday look on google street view for Stapleton road Bristol - more East Ham rather than Eton, more Oldham rather than Old School Tie. A true watershed moment with the BAME U.K. PM - a way to change the narrative.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.152437591
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.
This is shitshow^2
That's not to say she won't win, but it's now or never.
Merry Christmas.
oh boy