I've noticed that too. "Managed No Deal" appears to be the Brexiteers' on message term. The significance, I think, is that they can pretend a "Managed No Deal" is strategy whereas "Chaotic No Deal", which is what it actually will be, is something bad that happens by default.
"Managed No Deal" means no overall Withdrawal Agreement but lots of mini deals on the non-contentious things.
Which the EU have rejected. It's all deals or no-deals.
Stodge - sure "the "loyalists" are rallying round" but I think she`ll lose the vote. It is difficult for her to win because it is a secret ballot and this is crucial. Cabinet ministers can come out to say they support her but go on to vote against her. I`ve taken 5/2 with Ladbrokes (a price which I would say should be 4/5).
Indeed. Or even better, you can say it's a really bad idea to have a vote now, which doesn't reveal how you will actually vote.
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
Even the so-called "People's Vote" mob don't actually want another referendum.
As I’m sure does everyone on the payroll - in public.
In private, when presented tonight with a ballot paper on the other hand...
Whatever they say in public, she will get next to no support from Brexit supporting Conservative MPs, who regard her as an utter failure. 62 signed the ERG letter re the Lancaster House agreement. Many prominent Brexiteers did not (e.g. Johnson, Raab). So that must be at least 100 against. About 25% of the rest will need to join them and there are plenty of reasons why many will.
Fox and Mordaunt both saying they’ll support May. The vote is unlikely to be as a close as BBC are saying if that is the case although numbers voting against her could still easily be big enough to persuade her to resign.
Duncan doing his predictable “there is no alternative” won’t win over any admirers or supporters.
These are Tories we're taking about. You're not expecting the truth surely?
I think we should expect the truth or genuine opinions from all MPs. The fact that so few MPs feel the need to behave that way is what makes our politics a national disgrace. Wouldn’t have thought Fox and Mordaunt were actually amongst the MPs who are natural liars and dissemblers
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
Even the so-called "People's Vote" mob don't actually want another referendum.
I think a mistake is seeing this leadership contest as entirely about Brexit. You always have to think about the "what's in it for me?" factor as well.
For example, I am 100% sure Grayling and Fox will back May as they risk being reshuffled out by a successor. On the other hand if you were Justine Greening, you might see it as a chance to get revenge and get back into cabinet.
One factor that hasn't been mentioned is how will this go down with the public. If the Cons pick a leader with more charisma they might get a boost but if they replace May with a man, it might go down badly with female voters.
Are there any female candidates likely to replace May?
Possibly Leadsom again, or maybe the Remainers gather round Rudd or Morgan?
Penny Mordaunt would arguably be the most unifying leave voting candidate. Rudd suffers from a tiny majority but perhaps that matters less in these circumstances but it's still of relevance.
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
So you want a rerun because the people were idiots before, you dont actually want the people to decide whatever choice they may think appropriate. Good to know. I think we need a vote and that remain would win, but people who pretend it's about the people getting to choose but who actually only care about that if the people choose correctly, are probably going to cause a few more percent for no deal.
I suspect 'David from North Yorkshire' is not unrepresentative of a large swath of public opinion.
BBC Radio 5 live is asking listeners if they are 'backing Theresa May?'
David in North Yorkshire says: "I'm over the edge. This is just getting beyond a joke. The ramifications of this for me personally are that I now can't vote Conservative in the future because I can never forgive them for doing this.
"And I don’t want to vote Labour either.
"So I’m now done with politics and politicians. I’m bereft, I’m a political orphan, I can’t vote for anyone.
"The damage that these guys and girls are doing to this country is horrendous."
Indeed. There is Nero type approach being taken here; literally fiddling whilst the UK burns.....
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
Even the so-called "People's Vote" mob don't actually want another referendum.
Well some of them do but they don't know when or what question or how they're going to make it happen...
I've noticed that too. "Managed No Deal" appears to be the Brexiteers' on message term. The significance, I think, is that they can pretend a "Managed No Deal" is strategy whereas "Chaotic No Deal", which is what it actually will be, is something bad that happens by default.
"Managed No Deal" means no overall Withdrawal Agreement but lots of mini deals on the non-contentious things.
And is now looking by far the most likely way forward.
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
Even the so-called "People's Vote" mob don't actually want another referendum.
Stodge - sure "the "loyalists" are rallying round" but I think she`ll lose the vote. It is difficult for her to win because it is a secret ballot and this is crucial. Cabinet ministers can come out to say they support her but go on to vote against her. I`ve taken 5/2 with Ladbrokes (a price which I would say should be 4/5).
You may be right, my friend, I'm not a Conservative and I can't read Conservative minds (no sniggering in the cheap seats).
I think "loyalty" counts and the question for any backbencher with a marginal seat is whether changing the leader at this point makes the chances of holding that seat greater or smaller. As HYUFD points out ad nauseam, no one else on the Conservative side is currently polling better than May but that's not to say with a bit of public exposure the likes of Javid COULD poll as well if not better.
I still maintain the line is 200 - more than that and she is secure but less than that, even if she wins, and the notion of authority and credibility come into question. I suppose though there would be an irony of sorts if she got 52% of MPs backing her.
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
So you want a rerun because the people were idiots before, you dont actually want the people to decide whatever choice they may think appropriate. Good to know. I think we need a vote and that remain would win, but people who pretend it's about the people getting to choose but who actually only care about that if the people choose correctly, are probably going to cause a few more percent for no deal.
Another passive aggressive PB cliche - "good to know".
The timing of this challenge by the ERG is staggeringly, awfully bad. Noone thinks her renegotiations have much chance but to try and knife her right now is awful timing. They'd have been better to wait till her renegotiations came back fruitless and the meaningful vote failed. The ERG will be routed.
Why let her waste another month and a half? Time is already very limited
The sheer selfishness of the Conservative party and its contempt for voters never ceases to amaze.
Never let it be said again that they are the patriotic party. The utter self-indulgence at such a time is a disgrace. That a party which claims to act in the national interest should think that the country should be left leaderless with barely 3 months to go to its departure from the EU and that the decision as to who should be PM should be left to ca. 100,000 people (if that) shows it to be utterly unfit for purpose.
It's tricky. May needs to go but we have no time to waste on a contest.
And no, 2 wasted years doesn't mean we can lose one of the 3 confirmed months we have left.
I've noticed that too. "Managed No Deal" appears to be the Brexiteers' on message term. The significance, I think, is that they can pretend a "Managed No Deal" is strategy whereas "Chaotic No Deal", which is what it actually will be, is something bad that happens by default.
"Managed No Deal" means no overall Withdrawal Agreement but lots of mini deals on the non-contentious things.
And is now looking by far the most likely way forward.
You may be right. This could happen under a new leader, say Raab, with the party then splitting, whiie nevertheless simultaneously carrying through Brexit.
In the long-term though, the prospects for the party would be bleak.
The long-term prospects for the country would be much, much worse.
We had a people's vote in 2016 and Leave won. I'm sure you must remember - it was all over the media. The day after, the sore losers began complaining. Amongst their many moans was the classic 'It should be left to Parliament, the people don't understand joined-up writing."
What they meant was "A people's vote is fine only as long as it gives the decision we like.".
Democracy can be a pain in the arse at times, but ignoring it is asking for an enema.
We had a general election in 2017 in which over 50% of voters backed parties opposed to a No Deal Brexit. Does that will of the people count?
It can still happen if Corbyn stops playing silly games...
The timing of this challenge by the ERG is staggeringly, awfully bad. Noone thinks her renegotiations have much chance but to try and knife her right now is awful timing. They'd have been better to wait till her renegotiations came back fruitless and the meaningful vote failed. The ERG will be routed.
What renegotiations? The EU and Merkel told her there was no chance of a renegotiation.
They need someone new to try a different strategy because hers is going nowhere.
And anyway the ERG don't want to renegotiate, they want to crash out. And they think the challenge to May is likely to increase the chances of a crash out, though I am not sure they are right about that. It is more likely to lead to a split in the Tory party, with Soubry, Grieve etc ceasing to be Tories in all but name.
I'm against the money on this. What positive reason does an MP have to vote for her right now?
I agree. I think she is gone and was very happy to get some 5/2 against on that.
I see the hard brexit vote being supplemented by plenty of remainers who she has spooked with her run the clock down and risk no deal strategy. Plus the PV crowd will probably vote against. Plus the various people who covet the job. Plus those who just don't like or rate her. I reckon that will be enough.
Hope she survives though. The risk of BoJo is not negligible.
I've noticed that too. "Managed No Deal" appears to be the Brexiteers' on message term. The significance, I think, is that they can pretend a "Managed No Deal" is strategy whereas "Chaotic No Deal", which is what it actually will be, is something bad that happens by default.
"Managed No Deal" means no overall Withdrawal Agreement but lots of mini deals on the non-contentious things.
Which the EU have rejected. It's all deals or no-deals.
That's what they would say now. If parliament rejects the deal they may have no choice.
I'm against the money on this. What positive reason does an MP have to vote for her right now?
Like you, I'm struggling to find one.
If they want to avoid a general election before 2022, they should vote to get rid of her. If she wins tonight even by one vote, she will choose to stay. Should she stay, she can't rely on the DUP in a confidence vote, whereas a new leader probably could. There is also a real chance that having lost a confidence vote, she would refuse to resign as leader in order to allow a new leader to win a confidence vote with DUP support in the 14 day window.
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
So you want a rerun because the people were idiots before, you dont actually want the people to decide whatever choice they may think appropriate. Good to know. I think we need a vote and that remain would win, but people who pretend it's about the people getting to choose but who actually only care about that if the people choose correctly, are probably going to cause a few more percent for no deal.
Another passive aggressive PB cliche - "good to know".
I'm happy to retract the good to know. Your words make clear you only care about the people voting because you think they will vote the way you want. You don't want passive aggressive? Fine. That's a disgraceful, patronising, arrogant beyond belief and a dishonest stance to hold. Either you want the view of the people whatever it may be or you don't, but you and many others are clear the vote is to stop lunacy, in which case it should not be risked in a vote.
And I would vote remain over no deal.
Oh, and another pb cliche ? - whingers moaning about cliches.
I've noticed that too. "Managed No Deal" appears to be the Brexiteers' on message term. The significance, I think, is that they can pretend a "Managed No Deal" is strategy whereas "Chaotic No Deal", which is what it actually will be, is something bad that happens by default.
"Managed No Deal" means no overall Withdrawal Agreement but lots of mini deals on the non-contentious things.
Which the EU have rejected. It's all deals or no-deals.
That's what they would say now. If parliament rejects the deal they may have no choice.
It's consistent with their line over the last 2 years and exactly consistent with how they have always operated.
Thats as bad as Corbyn's line 'if we ask louder, they'll give us a better deal'...
Nicholas Watt Early argument from the Stop Boris campaign: even if he wins a Tory leadership contest do not assume he becomes PM. Has to command confidence of commons to survive. Dominic Grieve and others suggesting they will resign whip if he wins
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
So you want a rerun because the people were idiots before, you dont actually want the people to decide whatever choice they may think appropriate. Good to know. I think we need a vote and that remain would win, but people who pretend it's about the people getting to choose but who actually only care about that if the people choose correctly, are probably going to cause a few more percent for no deal.
Another passive aggressive PB cliche - "good to know".
I'm happy to retract the good to know. Your words make clear you only care about the people voting because you think they will vote the way you want. You don't want passive aggressive? Fine. That's a disgraceful, patronising, arrogant beyond belief and a dishonest stance to hold. Either you want the view of the people whatever it may be or you don't, but you and many others are clear the vote is to stop lunacy, in which case it should not be risked in a vote.
And I would vote remain over no deal.
Oh, and another pb cliche ? - whingers moaning about cliches.
My words ? I think you might be confusing me with the other Nigel - but good of you to retract the 'good to know'.
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
Even the so-called "People's Vote" mob don't actually want another referendum.
Er, yes we do!
No, they don't. They want the decision of the first vote changed. They've just assumed that having another referendum is the best way to do it but would quite happily settle for parliament overturning the result themselves.
I wouldn't be surprise if it is announced at 7:50 that the vote has been cancelled due to some national emergency or unheard of archiac Tory party rule.
Nicholas Watt Early argument from the Stop Boris campaign: even if he wins a Tory leadership contest do not assume he becomes PM. Has to command confidence of commons to survive. Dominic Grieve and others suggesting they will resign whip if he wins
This.
That there is already a stop Boris campaign doesn’t bode well for May, I’d say.
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
So you want a rerun because the people were idiots before, you dont actually want the people to decide whatever choice they may think appropriate. Good to know. I think we need a vote and that remain would win, but people who pretend it's about the people getting to choose but who actually only care about that if the people choose correctly, are probably going to cause a few more percent for no deal.
Another passive aggressive PB cliche - "good to know".
I'm happy to retract the good to know. Your words make clear you only care about the people voting because you think they will vote the way you want. You don't want passive aggressive? Fine. That's a disgraceful, patronising and dishonest stance to hold. Either you want the view of the people whatever it may be or you don't, but you and many others are clear the vote is to stop lunacy, in which case it should not be risked in a vote.
And I would vote remain over no deal.
Oh, and another pb cliche ? - whingers moaning about cliches.
Don't be so self-righteous. Sindyref, Brexit, AV... pretty much every referendum is advocates for by people whose true purpose is for one outcome to win. How often does a referendum get started by "oh, well I don't really care whether it happens or not, I just think it's vitally important that the people decide"?
Not convinced Johnson will stand due to Tories saying they will resign whip if he is elected leader. Who will the Brexiteer candidate be? David Davies anyone?
Yes a lot of people were concerned about immigration, especially after Merkel invited millions of economic migrants from some of the most dangerous parts of the world into Europe (the majority of whom seemed be men of fighting age and hardly any women and kids).
I suppose it is "outrageous" not to pretend these concerns didn't exist.
Nicholas Watt Early argument from the Stop Boris campaign: even if he wins a Tory leadership contest do not assume he becomes PM. Has to command confidence of commons to survive. Dominic Grieve and others suggesting they will resign whip if he wins
"We had a general election in 2017 in which over 50% of voters backed parties opposed to a No Deal Brexit. Does that will of the people count?"
You know as well as I do that people vote for parties at GEs for a variety of reasons. Only a referendum gives a one-subject vote. Despite all the embarrassing wriggling, re-running a binary vote because you don't agree with the result is anti-democratic. Or does it depend on the result?
If May loses, and it looks as if a hard Brexiteer will take over as PM, a Labour led VONC in the government may well succeed with a GE in 2019 and a postponement of A50.
Nicholas Watt Early argument from the Stop Boris campaign: even if he wins a Tory leadership contest do not assume he becomes PM. Has to command confidence of commons to survive. Dominic Grieve and others suggesting they will resign whip if he wins
This.
Presumably whoever wins the leadership will be calling an immediate general election to try and get the country to endorse their version of Brexit?
If the leadership contest ends in coronation Thursday 31st January look do'able, otherwise Thursday 28th February has to be favourite (but after the 1974 general election any Tory leader will be trying to avoid that date I'd think )
Nicholas Watt Early argument from the Stop Boris campaign: even if he wins a Tory leadership contest do not assume he becomes PM. Has to command confidence of commons to survive. Dominic Grieve and others suggesting they will resign whip if he wins
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
Even the so-called "People's Vote" mob don't actually want another referendum.
Er, yes we do!
You do. Some of your cohorts want only to reverse brexit. They see a vote as the way to do that, but an actual second referendum supporter wants the vote to settle things whatever it's outcome. ,Even if they prefer one over the other they want the people to decide, not just see it as a way to get what they want
Nicholas Watt Early argument from the Stop Boris campaign: even if he wins a Tory leadership contest do not assume he becomes PM. Has to command confidence of commons to survive. Dominic Grieve and others suggesting they will resign whip if he wins
This.
National Government alert.
I suggested this as a (rather unlikely) possibility yesterday, and was told it wasn't possible.
Not convinced Johnson will stand due to Tories saying they will resign whip if he is elected leader. Who will the Brexiteer candidate be? David Davies anyone?
Counterpoint - Will seven Tories resign the whip if he wins ? Boris will undoubtedly have the DUP's backing in the house. Seven is a huge number to actively VONC a Tory Gov't even for Boris.
A vox pop on radio. Almost unanimously pissed off with the self indulgent Tory MPs. I can only see this being a disaster for the Tories -and probably Brexit. A second referendum has had a shot in the arm.
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
So you want a rerun because the people were idiots before, you dont actually want the people to decide whatever choice they may think appropriate. Good to know. I think we need a vote and that remain would win, but people who pretend it's about the people getting to choose but who actually only care about that if the people choose correctly, are probably going to cause a few more percent for no deal.
Another passive aggressive PB cliche - "good to know".
I'm happy to retract the good to know. Your words make clear you only care about the people voting because you think they will vote the way you want. You don't want passive aggressive? Fine. That's a disgraceful, patronising, arrogant beyond belief and a dishonest stance to hold. Either you want the view of the people whatever it may be or you don't, but you and many others are clear the vote is to stop lunacy, in which case it should not be risked in a vote.
And I would vote remain over no deal.
Oh, and another pb cliche ? - whingers moaning about cliches.
My words ? I think you might be confusing me with the other Nigel - but good of you to retract the 'good to know'.
I did confuse you and I am truly sorry. While I think the test reaction to the other Nigel was warranted by his sentiment even though he was not the one talking about passive aggressiveness I have overreacted and been misplaced.
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
So you want a rerun because the people were idiots before, you dont actually want the people to decide whatever choice they may think appropriate. Good to know. I think we need a vote and that remain would win, but people who pretend it's about the people getting to choose but who actually only care about that if the people choose correctly, are probably going to cause a few more percent for no deal.
Another passive aggressive PB cliche - "good to know".
I'm happy to retract the good to know. Your words make clear you only care about the people voting because you think they will vote the way you want. You don't want passive aggressive? Fine. That's a disgraceful, patronising and dishonest stance to hold. Either you want the view of the people whatever it may be or you don't, but you and many others are clear the vote is to stop lunacy, in which case it should not be risked in a vote.
And I would vote remain over no deal.
Oh, and another pb cliche ? - whingers moaning about cliches.
Don't be so self-righteous. Sindyref, Brexit, AV... pretty much every referendum is advocates for by people whose true purpose is for one outcome to win. How often does a referendum get started by "oh, well I don't really care whether it happens or not, I just think it's vitally important that the people decide"?
More often than you think. If people are not even going to pretend to actually care about the people choosing then they cannot use tropes which suggest they do. That's honest.
Why not reply to the substance of the tweet rather than shooting the messenger.
She's had two years in charge, so the result of the 2016 vote has actually been carried out. In your analogy she would have won the vote, we then would have spent two years bickering about how she should actually govern, before deciding she shouldn't get the chance to govern at all and having another vote before actually letting her take charge.
At the 1995 Tory leadership contest between John Major and John Redwood, Major said that if he hadn't got 65% of the votes he would have resigned. He got 66%.
Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
Even the so-called "People's Vote" mob don't actually want another referendum.
Er, yes we do!
You do. Some of your cohorts want only to reverse brexit. They see a vote as the way to do that, but an actual second referendum supporter wants the vote to settle things whatever it's outcome. ,Even if they prefer one over the other they want the people to decide, not just see it as a way to get what they want
I did ask you to be a little more specific with your insults.
For the avoidance of doubt, I am the one who said he was entirely prepared, however grudgingly, to accept May's deal. And any referendum should have all three options on the ballot.
The timing of this challenge by the ERG is staggeringly, awfully bad. Noone thinks her renegotiations have much chance but to try and knife her right now is awful timing. They'd have been better to wait till her renegotiations came back fruitless and the meaningful vote failed. The ERG will be routed.
What renegotiations? The EU and Merkel told her there was no chance of a renegotiation.
They need someone new to try a different strategy because hers is going nowhere.
And anyway the ERG don't want to renegotiate, they want to crash out. And they think the challenge to May is likely to increase the chances of a crash out, though I am not sure they are right about that. It is more likely to lead to a split in the Tory party, with Soubry, Grieve etc ceasing to be Tories in all but name.
I think it was inevitable that a challenge would come from the Tory Party first, rather than the opposition as if a GE was triggered then the last thing the Tory party want is TMay in charge.
I think the threshold was not reached until yesterday as the plausibility of challenging her difficult aside from the ERG. However the last week has seen the contempt of Parliament loss, and two other losses, the cancellation of the main vote, and TMay traipsing around Europe whilst the EU leaders refused to give anything, has given those unhappy a justification for their unhappiness and a reason to send the letter. If a Government VONC is now lost, then a coronation would be justified for another vote probably next week. I outlined my reason for expecting a unity candidate last night - I think it will be a Sajid Javid.
There is already a panic in the EU it has been made known that if a cabinet minister replaces May then they are signed up to the current WA. I expect any replacement from the Cabinet to tell them to stick it.
I have found it interesting today that a number of Labour MPs have said that this is indulgent and not in the national interest, whilst saying they will VONC the Government in the coming days!
Comments
PMQT should be fun this lunchtime. Jezza to go with UC?
https://twitter.com/BarristerSecret/status/1072764222923259904
https://twitter.com/ChukaUmunna/status/1072783899418394626
I think "loyalty" counts and the question for any backbencher with a marginal seat is whether changing the leader at this point makes the chances of holding that seat greater or smaller. As HYUFD points out ad nauseam, no one else on the Conservative side is currently polling better than May but that's not to say with a bit of public exposure the likes of Javid COULD poll as well if not better.
I still maintain the line is 200 - more than that and she is secure but less than that, even if she wins, and the notion of authority and credibility come into question. I suppose though there would be an irony of sorts if she got 52% of MPs backing her.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.152437591
And no, 2 wasted years doesn't mean we can lose one of the 3 confirmed months we have left.
In the long-term though, the prospects for the party would be bleak.
The long-term prospects for the country would be much, much worse.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051208/market?marketId=1.152437591
https://twitter.com/hopenothate/status/1070292885864624128?s=21
I see the hard brexit vote being supplemented by plenty of remainers who she has spooked with her run the clock down and risk no deal strategy. Plus the PV crowd will probably vote against. Plus the various people who covet the job. Plus those who just don't like or rate her. I reckon that will be enough.
Hope she survives though. The risk of BoJo is not negligible.
If they want to avoid a general election before 2022, they should vote to get rid of her. If she wins tonight even by one vote, she will choose to stay. Should she stay, she can't rely on the DUP in a confidence vote, whereas a new leader probably could. There is also a real chance that having lost a confidence vote, she would refuse to resign as leader in order to allow a new leader to win a confidence vote with DUP support in the 14 day window.
And I would vote remain over no deal.
Oh, and another pb cliche ? - whingers moaning about cliches.
Thats as bad as Corbyn's line 'if we ask louder, they'll give us a better deal'...
Early argument from the Stop Boris campaign: even if he wins a Tory leadership contest do not assume he becomes PM. Has to command confidence of commons to survive. Dominic Grieve and others suggesting they will resign whip if he wins
This.
I think you might be confusing me with the other Nigel - but good of you to retract the 'good to know'.
Surprising if Williamson, her erswhile leadership campaign manager, is not supporting her.
I wouldn't be surprise if it is announced at 7:50 that the vote has been cancelled due to some national emergency or unheard of archiac Tory party rule.
https://twitter.com/bernardjenkin/status/1072789484578766848
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1072790538418556930
I suppose it is "outrageous" not to pretend these concerns didn't exist.
"We had a general election in 2017 in which over 50% of voters backed parties opposed to a No Deal Brexit. Does that will of the people count?"
You know as well as I do that people vote for parties at GEs for a variety of reasons. Only a referendum gives a one-subject vote. Despite all the embarrassing wriggling, re-running a binary vote because you don't agree with the result is anti-democratic. Or does it depend on the result?
May loses by one vote tonight, she is out and cannot stand again as far as I understand it.
20 odd candidates will then start their hustings.
If the leadership contest ends in coronation Thursday 31st January look do'able, otherwise Thursday 28th February has to be favourite (but after the 1974 general election any Tory leader will be trying to avoid that date I'd think
Won't anyone think of my Xmas champagne fund?
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/12/the-full-list-of-tory-mps-backing-theresa-may/
as others posted public support isn't always reflected in a secret ballot.
Seven is a huge number to actively VONC a Tory Gov't even for Boris.
May should've held the vote.
Unsurprised to hear the ERG appear to be shooting themselves in the foot.
I sign I need to get back to work
Mike finds these tweets useful.
For the avoidance of doubt, I am the one who said he was entirely prepared, however grudgingly, to accept May's deal. And any referendum should have all three options on the ballot.
I think the threshold was not reached until yesterday as the plausibility of challenging her difficult aside from the ERG. However the last week has seen the contempt of Parliament loss, and two other losses, the cancellation of the main vote, and TMay traipsing around Europe whilst the EU leaders refused to give anything, has given those unhappy a justification for their unhappiness and a reason to send the letter. If a Government VONC is now lost, then a coronation would be justified for another vote probably next week. I outlined my reason for expecting a unity candidate last night - I think it will be a Sajid Javid.
There is already a panic in the EU it has been made known that if a cabinet minister replaces May then they are signed up to the current WA. I expect any replacement from the Cabinet to tell them to stick it.
I have found it interesting today that a number of Labour MPs have said that this is indulgent and not in the national interest, whilst saying they will VONC the Government in the coming days!