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  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    If it hasn’t been mentioned there is a SPIN market up; Votes Against, currently sell 100 buy 108.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    edited December 2018
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky News Breaking
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsBreak

    Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union

    and presumably re-set article 50?

    A new leader, a re-set of A50 and a general election are just some of the highlights we can look forward to in the New Year.

    Merry Christmas. :D
    Still not seeing a GE next year.
    It depends who the leader is but if it's Boris or David Davis I don't think they'll be able to resist the drama of it all! :D
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaning
  • TGOHF said:

    Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.

    You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.
  • Sky News Breaking
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsBreak

    Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union

    and presumably re-set article 50?

    At some point Leavers will want to/have to play with the CJEU judgement. Revoking one day, the reinvoking the next resets the clock by two years. It may be the only way to save Brexit.
  • trawl said:

    If it hasn’t been mentioned there is a SPIN market up; Votes Against, currently sell 100 buy 108.

    a market for the brave that one I think
  • AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another undecided MP — Grant Shapps.

    And is Mr Green also undecided?
    Damian Green says he'll vote in favour of Mrs May.
    I was thinking about Michael Green....
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,246
    Pulpstar said:

    183/81

    Source? Guardian has her at 100 in favour from half an hour ago based on twitter.

  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaning
    These people always write as if their single vote was the most important one in the country. Numerically they are in fact tiny.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    TGOHF said:

    Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.

    You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.
    Her deal is toast. And I feel any plan B ends up in the same place, a lost VONC.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another undecided MP — Grant Shapps.

    And is Mr Green also undecided?
    Damian Green says he'll vote in favour of Mrs May.
    I was thinking about Michael Green....
    Michael delivers at least seven extra votes.
  • DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    That is my position. ERG are premature. I do not want TM locked in for another 12 months
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2018

    TGOHF said:

    Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.

    You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.
    This.

    If she wins, she stays.

    She thinks her country needs her.

    She's sure of it.

    Mrs. Messiah Complex.
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    TGOHF said:

    Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.

    You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.

    Yes, there is a great deal of wishful thinking on the part of the PB Hard Right Wing. They are sounding like they expect to lose, and are spinning ways to 'win the defeat'.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.

    You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.
    The men in grey suits will be knocking if 100 against.

    The Con Party doesn't run on unicorn droppings.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    What's wrong with getting rid of her now?

    She's not doing anything of value.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Nigelb said:
    She's got a veto, pretty much.
  • Sky News Breaking
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsBreak

    Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union

    and presumably re-set article 50?

    At some point Leavers will want to/have to play with the CJEU judgement. Revoking one day, the reinvoking the next resets the clock by two years. It may be the only way to save Brexit.
    That might be the way forward. Reset it every 2 years, pleases everyone !
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    TGOHF said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Sky News Breaking
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsBreak

    Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union

    and presumably re-set article 50?

    A new leader, a re-set of A50 and a general election are just some of the highlights we can look forward to in the New Year.

    Merry Christmas. :D
    Still not seeing a GE next year.
    I also don't place much reliance on my crystal ball, unlike many others on here, who seem to be blessed with remarkable foresight (or think there are?). But possibly like you, I'm interpreting the ball's cloudiness as indicating no GE next year, influenced perhaps by wondering why the hell would the Tories call one.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751

    DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaning
    Surely you’re not suggesting that members of the public weird enough to contact a radio phone in are not completely honest and reliable? Where will this end?
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471

    Sky News Breaking
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsBreak

    Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union

    and presumably re-set article 50?

    At last someone who has managed to use their brain in the Tory party.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    So, the big question is whether no leader is better than a bad leader?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238

    DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaning
    Well quite. The converse, seen almost as often, is “I voted Remain but a second referendum/Norway/May’s deal is an insult to democracy, we must Leave and do it properly #leavemeansleave”. No you didn’t, stop lying.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,899
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.

    You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.
    The men in grey suits will be knocking if 100 against.

    The Con Party doesn't run on unicorn droppings.
    "Nothing has changed..."

    She'll carry on if she wins by a single vote. It's going to take a vaudeville hook to get rid of her.
  • Sky News Breaking
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsBreak

    Former Brexit Secretary David Davis says the UK should reset its Brexit negotiating strategy with the European Union

    and presumably re-set article 50?

    At some point Leavers will want to/have to play with the CJEU judgement. Revoking one day, the reinvoking the next resets the clock by two years. It may be the only way to save Brexit.
    I think the judgement allows the EU to treat the date of a second invocation as equal to the first in order to prevent such game playing.

    We can unilaterally choose to stay in, but we cannot unilaterally reset the clock.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaning
    Well quite. The converse, seen almost as often, is “I voted Remain but a second referendum/Norway/May’s deal is an insult to democracy, we must Leave and do it properly #leavemeansleave”. No you didn’t, stop lying.
    If Phil comes out against her it will be Uuuuuuuuge.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    That is my position. ERG are premature. I do not want TM locked in for another 12 months
    It should have been left at least until her attempted renegotiations had been clearly seen to hit a brick wall. At the very least she should have been allowed to see that preening poseur Varadkar in the knowledge that any successor to her would not be so emollient.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    I’ll repost this from last night

    Talk about hostage to fortune.....

    I think Javid will be PM by the end of the week

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/953068/Sajid-Javid-EU-Brexit-news-Brexiteer-Remainer-Home-Secretary

    I know it’s the express but it sets out that Javid was Eurosceptic, voted remain as worried about economics of Brexit, but has argued for clean Brexit to take advantage of benefits of leaving.

    He has also been effective as Home Secretary - sorted Windrush, medical marijuana, advocate for global immigration policy

    And as I said on here on Monday look on google street view for Stapleton road Bristol - more East Ham rather than Eton, more Oldham rather than Old School Tie. A true watershed moment with the BAME U.K. PM - a way to change the narrative.
    Don't fancy a no dealer at the helm.....
    I’ve voted remain because I had concerns about the economic impact, but I have argued on here that the negotiations have been all wrong from the start. They should have come from the established position - exit with no deal on 29th March, and negotiated from there towards a withdrawal agreement. TMay asked for a mandate, and she was given a minority government.
  • Chameleon said:

    So, the big question is whether no leader is better than a bad leader?

    I think the markets tell the story. She is so bad that the thought of her departure leads to the markets rallying.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaning
    Well quite. The converse, seen almost as often, is “I voted Remain but a second referendum/Norway/May’s deal is an insult to democracy, we must Leave and do it properly #leavemeansleave”. No you didn’t, stop lying.
    If Phil comes out against her it will be Uuuuuuuuge.
    No way that's going to happen.... is there?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,238
    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    183/81

    Source? Guardian has her at 100 in favour from half an hour ago based on twitter.

    If you put a crowdsourcing exercise up on the internet, people will attempt to fill it in based on best guesses. It’s a mix of trying to be helpful and Aspergers-like completism. Wikipedia has long suffered from this.

    That’s what’s happening with the crowdsourced ElectionMapsUK spreadsheet which is touting the 180/80ish numbers. It’s bullshit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Phil Hammond should definitely resign at PMQs. Gives MPs cover to vote the right way and depose May.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaning
    Well quite. The converse, seen almost as often, is “I voted Remain but a second referendum/Norway/May’s deal is an insult to democracy, we must Leave and do it properly #leavemeansleave”. No you didn’t, stop lying.
    That is actually not far from my own view, but I wouldn’t bother messaging a radio show
  • TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Betting is problematic - 100 against then May wins the vote but is toast.

    You want that to happen by the sounds of it, but doesn't mean she won't stick around based on past performance.
    The men in grey suits will be knocking if 100 against.

    The Con Party doesn't run on unicorn droppings.
    With respect that is nonsense. If TM wins TM is PM for the next 12 months and no one can dislodge her

    It is so silly to have done this now. Only yesterday I announced that TM had made a mistake on pulling the vote and has lost my support. But that did not include a vnoc now and the prospect of her leading into an election
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Pulpstar said:


    If Phil comes out against her it will be Uuuuuuuuge.

    https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1072764948047122432
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    will he make it as a question?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....

    How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?
  • I am resigning from the Cabinet in order to vote against?
  • If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
  • I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....

    How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?

    You want to see the folks doing the selecting...
  • pingping Posts: 3,805

    ping said:

    I'm back btw.

    I lost my @pong logon/password.

    Welcome back. Popcorn at standby?

    Welcome to PB, Mr. Ping.

    Cheers.

  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited December 2018

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Why not?

    She'll get herself a new cabinet.

    The men in suits are a fiction.
  • https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/brexit-second-scottish-tory-mp-says-he-will-vote-against-pm-s-deal-1-4841769

    The mood in Scotland is enough is enough. Time to rest A50, gain some stability and prepare a better plan.
  • If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,899
    Pulpstar said:

    Phil Hammond should definitely resign at PMQs. Gives MPs cover to vote the right way and depose May.

    I've always wondered if we could have a Reservoir Dogs ending to this. With Spreadsheet Phil as Mr Pink, waiting until the circular firing squad has finished everyone else off, then running away with the loot...
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Andrew said:

    Pulpstar said:


    If Phil comes out against her it will be Uuuuuuuuge.

    https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1072764948047122432
    I predict one person who has tweeted like this will reverse ferret. Maybe not Hammond but don't rule it out.
  • I’ll repost this from last night

    Talk about hostage to fortune.....

    I think Javid will be PM by the end of the week

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/953068/Sajid-Javid-EU-Brexit-news-Brexiteer-Remainer-Home-Secretary

    I know it’s the express but it sets out that Javid was Eurosceptic, voted remain as worried about economics of Brexit, but has argued for clean Brexit to take advantage of benefits of leaving.

    He has also been effective as Home Secretary - sorted Windrush, medical marijuana, advocate for global immigration policy

    And as I said on here on Monday look on google street view for Stapleton road Bristol - more East Ham rather than Eton, more Oldham rather than Old School Tie. A true watershed moment with the BAME U.K. PM - a way to change the narrative.
    Don't fancy a no dealer at the helm.....
    I’ve voted remain because I had concerns about the economic impact, but I have argued on here that the negotiations have been all wrong from the start. They should have come from the established position - exit with no deal on 29th March, and negotiated from there towards a withdrawal agreement. TMay asked for a mandate, and she was given a minority government.
    I think there must be a reasonable chance that it might be the end of the Tory party on that basis - the level of public support for no deal now, let alone in March when people are panicking, is going to put them in an impossible position.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    If she wins by one she'll stay.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    If she wins by one she'll stay.
    Yes, precisely why I'd vote against if I was a Tory MP today.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,246

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    183/81

    Source? Guardian has her at 100 in favour from half an hour ago based on twitter.

    If you put a crowdsourcing exercise up on the internet, people will attempt to fill it in based on best guesses. It’s a mix of trying to be helpful and Aspergers-like completism. Wikipedia has long suffered from this.

    That’s what’s happening with the crowdsourced ElectionMapsUK spreadsheet which is touting the 180/80ish numbers. It’s bullshit.
    I think guardian's twitter counter (now 110 in favour) is probably the best measure of support, although of course some of that may turn out to be false. If she gets above 200 publicly supporting, I think she must be safe, since some waverers may back her in the end.
  • Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....

    How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?

    'twas ever thus
  • Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.

    But if her plan is voted down, the HoC can take control. That almost certainly won't happen if a no dealer wins.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The statements of public support by MPs are ( largely ) noise when we need signal.

    1.22 amazingly short.
    I think she'll probably hold on but betting against is probably going to be value. There'll most likely be a rumour at some stage tonight that she's lost even if she hasn't, and the markets will overreact to it.
    This seems spot on. However I am leaving this well alone.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Anyone still listening to Radio 5 will be listening the the ding dong between SNP and Labour and wondering - are they going to be forming a government together any time soon?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Guardian asks

    Who will be PM in the morning?

    Surely this is Theresa May 100% ?!
  • Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.

    It is also voting for at least a chance of her leading you in GE 2019.

    If I was in a marginal I would be giving some serious thought to that prospect.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    edited December 2018

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):

    "Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
  • Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.

    Boris is the biggest issue for many conservative mps and will impact the vote in TM direction
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    183/81

    Source? Guardian has her at 100 in favour from half an hour ago based on twitter.

    If you put a crowdsourcing exercise up on the internet, people will attempt to fill it in based on best guesses. It’s a mix of trying to be helpful and Aspergers-like completism. Wikipedia has long suffered from this.

    That’s what’s happening with the crowdsourced ElectionMapsUK spreadsheet which is touting the 180/80ish numbers. It’s bullshit.
    About 85 Tory MPs have posted messages on Twitter in support of Theresa May. Not sure whether that counts as a lot or not a lot at this stage.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,575
    It wouldn't surprise me if Mrs May hasn't engineered this VONC (by encouraging a few of her supporters to put letters in). It's a risky strategy to some extent but it makes her bullet proof when she does her next U-Turn (after her deal is voted down) and announces an extension of A50 and a second referendum.

    Without the VNOC out of the way she would have been vulnerable to a VONC as soon as she u-turned and might have lost it. As it is, she is mightily strengthened.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    I’ll repost this from last night

    Talk about hostage to fortune.....

    I think Javid will be PM by the end of the week

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/953068/Sajid-Javid-EU-Brexit-news-Brexiteer-Remainer-Home-Secretary

    I know it’s the express but it sets out that Javid was Eurosceptic, voted remain as worried about economics of Brexit, but has argued for clean Brexit to take advantage of benefits of leaving.

    He has also been effective as Home Secretary - sorted Windrush, medical marijuana, advocate for global immigration policy

    And as I said on here on Monday look on google street view for Stapleton road Bristol - more East Ham rather than Eton, more Oldham rather than Old School Tie. A true watershed moment with the BAME U.K. PM - a way to change the narrative.
    Don't fancy a no dealer at the helm.....
    I’ve voted remain because I had concerns about the economic impact, but I have argued on here that the negotiations have been all wrong from the start. They should have come from the established position - exit with no deal on 29th March, and negotiated from there towards a withdrawal agreement. TMay asked for a mandate, and she was given a minority government.
    I think there must be a reasonable chance that it might be the end of the Tory party on that basis - the level of public support for no deal now, let alone in March when people are panicking, is going to put them in an impossible position.
    The only thing I would say is that Leave voters have reportedly moved to don’t know. I would not bet against Leave in any 2nd referendum
  • If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    When fighting against the establishment or established position any substantial rebellion counts because they are fighting with hands tied eg May has the captive ministerial vote. (I know its a secret ballot but those with government positions will want to cling on and not risk losing out with a different leader. )
  • If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    When fighting against the establishment or established position any substantial rebellion counts because they are fighting with hands tied eg May has the captive ministerial vote. (I know its a secret ballot but those with government positions will want to cling on and not risk losing out with a different leader. )
    Waffle from you exposing your hypocrisy.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,892
    edited December 2018

    DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaning
    I listen to Radio 5 every morning, unless they are playing games there really does seem to be a significant level of support for May amongst the listeners, even if it is reluctant. And there certainly is very little belief that anyone else can produce a substantially better deal.
  • Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.

    She will be PM tomorrow no matter the result. If she loses she will stay in place until her successor is appointed
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487
    If May wins tonight, will it be the first time in history that both the sitting PM and the sitting Loto have faced voncs from their own parties?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2018
    Brady timing stuff from guardian blog:

    5pm: Theresa May will address the 1922 committee of Tory MPs
    6pm: The ballot will open.
    8pm: The ballot will close
    9pm: Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, will first inform the prime minister of the result and then announce the result to MPs and the press, followed by the numbers on either side
  • AnazinaAnazina Posts: 3,487

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    When fighting against the establishment or established position any substantial rebellion counts because they are fighting with hands tied eg May has the captive ministerial vote. (I know its a secret ballot but those with government positions will want to cling on and not risk losing out with a different leader. )
    You win the Waffley Crap Post of the Decade Award.

    Collect your prize by 31 December.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    the negotiations have been all wrong from the start. They should have come from the established position - exit with no deal on 29th March, and negotiated from there towards a withdrawal agreement.

    That was explicitly ruled out during the campaign. "Easiest deal in history, we start from total alignment, etc."

    If she had said that at Lancaster house she would have been VONCed immediately
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,899

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):

    "Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
    As has been said, downthread
    Donny43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.
    Yet to see anyone refute this.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Barnesian said:

    It wouldn't surprise me if Mrs May hasn't engineered this VONC (by encouraging a few of her supporters to put letters in). It's a risky strategy to some extent but it makes her bullet proof when she does her next U-Turn (after her deal is voted down) and announces an extension of A50 and a second referendum.

    Without the VNOC out of the way she would have been vulnerable to a VONC as soon as she u-turned and might have lost it. As it is, she is mightily strengthened.

    Even though I'm a Leaver I entirely agree with you. It makes her immune from the ERG. The 48 letters shd have been kept in reserve and used as the nuclear option if she started tilting towards A50 revocation or a second ref.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Voting to keep TM is voting to keep her plan. This is a dead duck so she is gone. Can't see her being PM by tomorrow.

    Not sure I agree with your first sentence
  • kyf_100 said:

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):

    "Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
    As has been said, downthread
    Donny43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.
    Yet to see anyone refute this.
    The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.

    So the real result was never enacted.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....

    How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?

    'twas ever thus
    With an ultra-safe seat, Paterson could ignore constituents and spend 100% of his time plotting and appearing on TV. The delights of rotten boroughs ...
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,899

    kyf_100 said:

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):

    "Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
    As has been said, downthread
    Donny43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.
    Yet to see anyone refute this.
    The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.

    So the real result was never enacted.
    Or alternatively, the 2016 leadership election was an establishment stitch up.

    Which is precisely what a second referendum would be portrayed as.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Left-leaning MPs have tabled a motion of no confidence in the French government in the wake of President Emmanuel Macron's handling of the "gilets jaunes" ("yellow vests") crisis.

    The move has triggered a debate in the French parliament — the National Assembly — to be held on Thursday."

    https://www.euronews.com/2018/12/12/gilets-jaunes-left-leaning-mps-table-motion-of-no-confidence-in-french-government
  • It's a christmas of no-confidence.
  • kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):

    "Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
    As has been said, downthread
    Donny43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.
    Yet to see anyone refute this.
    The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.

    So the real result was never enacted.
    Or alternatively, the 2016 leadership election was an establishment stitch up.

    Which is precisely what a second referendum would be portrayed as.
    Because the best the Leavers could come up with was Andrea Leadsom.
  • I have a funny feeling Maureen from Margate won't be getting her question about the number 89 bus diversion due to the Christmas market raised by Jezza today.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,899

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):

    "Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
    As has been said, downthread
    Donny43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.
    Yet to see anyone refute this.
    The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.

    So the real result was never enacted.
    Or alternatively, the 2016 leadership election was an establishment stitch up.

    Which is precisely what a second referendum would be portrayed as.
    Because the best the Leavers could come up with was Andrea Leadsom.
    Hah. I take your point there.

    It's almost like there's a case to be made for MPs taking decisions in the best interests of the country without putting them to the wider electorate, lest they vote for something immensely silly ;)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,117
    edited December 2018
    However, I'm quite confident that christmas will be more rewarding this year, in that north european way of warding off the midwinter murk with drink and lights.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058

    I have a funny feeling Maureen from Margate won't be getting her question about the number 89 bus diversion due to the Christmas market raised by Jezza today.

    Expect full cheers for May.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2018
    SPIN traitor market midpoint now 102. EM publicly declared rebel scum: 82 (edit: 81)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does that mean she would vote in favour of a No Confidence motion in the government in the Commons?
  • Pulpstar said:
    Crikey George Osborne is channelling me

    It doesn’t help that the confidence vote has been triggered by the hard Brexiteers of the so-called European Research Group . Their obsession with the European issue above all others has been a force for division and destruction in the Conservative Party for three decades. Many Tory MPs will hate to give them any kind of victory. That is why Mrs May, in her statement outside Downing Street, appealed to her party with her claim to be “moderate, pragmatic and mainstream”. It is designed to frame tonight’s vote as the “sensibles” against the “nutters”.
  • AndyJS said:

    Does that mean she would vote in favour of a No Confidence motion in the government in the Commons?
    No -
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,600
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):

    "Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
    As has been said, downthread
    Donny43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.
    Yet to see anyone refute this.
    The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.

    So the real result was never enacted.
    Or alternatively, the 2016 leadership election was an establishment stitch up.

    Which is precisely what a second referendum would be portrayed as.
    Oh no, that's not going to wash:

    Tory MPs overwhelmingly voted for a new leader in July 2016; two years later, according to the ERG, it's ok to have another vote.

    The UK public narrowly voted to leave the EU in June 2016; two years later, according to the ERG, it's not ok to have another vote.

    Hypocrisy of the highest order!
  • Andrew said:

    SPIN traitor market midpoint now 102. EM publicly declared rebel scum: 82.

    Must not play this market.
This discussion has been closed.