politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and TMay could be voted out tonight
So the rumours that we were hearing last night were correct. The names have gone in to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, and now we have a confidence vote taking place.
Last week, I’d have said she was safe via this process.
I still think most would give her the benefit of the doubt for now (especially given the fear of who follows).
But the anger about the cancelled vote, and the fact those supporting her are backing her for a year without further challenge, makes me think that’s by no means certain. And even if she scrapes it she has some thinking to do... because the forthcoming parliamentary shenanigans is no place for a leader who’s lost the publicly-if-anonymously-stated confidence of 40pc of her party.
Idling wondering how the Conservatives can survive... The mutual loathing and bitterness, which they have for each other and which they have inflicted on the country, now seems to have reached escape velocity.
By the way.. I doubt she would, but can she pull a Major, quit today and stand? It would be a way of dodging the prohibition on her standing in case of a loss. And in keeping with the can-kicking modus operandi.
The risk of May being bomb-proof with a general election looming is what dooms her.
Tom Peck of the Independent on SKY says she will lose it comfortably.
If that happens the only way to avoid a long Tory leadership contest in the country is if just one candidate comes forward to replace her, but that seems very unlikely.
The public have seen a very courageous woman fighting her corner against some pretty unpleasant people. This can only do the Tory Party enormous damage. All the stereotypes that attach themselves to the party including misogyny and downright nastiness will be proven beyond reasonable doubt. There will be a lot of sympathy for Mrs May whatever happens.
Brutal at removing PMs or LotO that don't cut it. Look and learn, Labour, look and learn.....
Brutal? Perhaps.. but not decisive - they have been twaddling around this for weeks. I wonder if JRM will claim any credit to try and restore his decreased authority?
Brutal at removing PMs or LotO that don't cut it. Look and learn, Labour, look and learn.....
Really good warning of what not to do. Labour had its problems 2007-10, but now looks like a textbook for how to manage a party in a crisis. We now know that it’s important to avoid calling unnecessary general elections, how to avoid leadership elections and that the value you get by burying the hatchet to pull in your best talent to fight a solid campaign,
Idling wondering how the Conservatives can survive... The mutual loathing and bitterness, which they have for each other and which they have inflicted on the country, now seems to have reached escape velocity.
A shared loathing of Labour might be enough to keep them together.
Time for that long walk into the sunset. Better than being dragged out screaming for mercy.
She will likely have some idea of just how many letters have gone in. The Whips will have been getting a running commentary on her deal - and her status within the party. She must have a good idea how this will turn out.
The thing that might save Mrs May is the prospect of Boris, Gove, or an ERGer succeeding her.
Does she want to survive? Everyone keeps saying that she's safe for a year if she wins the vote, but does she want that? It would almost become he duty to stay for at least a year.
Can Sunil or TSE make me a bar chart with "Years since Con PM ousted because of something other than Europe", value 44, and "Years since Con PM ousted because Europe", which will either be 2 or 0 depending on when today you make it.
Idling wondering how the Conservatives can survive... The mutual loathing and bitterness, which they have for each other and which they have inflicted on the country, now seems to have reached escape velocity.
A majority of Labour MPs no confidenced Corbyn, the Tories will survive regardless even if divided
FPT Mr. S, you're welcome but I should say my record in such matters (the splendid Lib Dem leadership election and Macron's victory aside) has been, er, dire.
The thing that might save Mrs May is the prospect of Boris, Gove, or an ERGer succeeding her.
Does she want to survive? Everyone keeps saying that she's safe for a year if she wins the vote, but does she want that? It would almost become he duty to stay for at least a year.
A fortnight ago I spoke to someone who worked for Theresa May and they said she wouldn’t be want to be responsible for a No Deal Brexit that sees a meds shortage.
She doesn’t want that on her conscience.
As a diabetic she knows how important this is.
In the event of a meds shortage Leavers won’t be safe, the UK won’t be pleasant.
Those gallows on display on Sunday may end up being used by those impacted by a meds shortage or their family.
May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
"no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want that
May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
"no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
Unless the Tories are facing another 1997, in which case Mrs May might be the ideal person to take the blame.
1. The Tory leadership voting system is so much more sensible than Labour's, ensuring as it does that the party membership is only presented with a choice between the two candidates most acceptable to the parliamentary party
2. While she clearly in not a quitter, one must think that Mrs May would be relieved to lose this vote.
The thing that might save Mrs May is the prospect of Boris, Gove, or an ERGer succeeding her.
Does she want to survive? Everyone keeps saying that she's safe for a year if she wins the vote, but does she want that? It would almost become he duty to stay for at least a year.
A fortnight ago I spoke to someone who worked for Theresa May and they said she wouldn’t be want to be responsible for a No Deal Brexit that sees a meds shortage.
She doesn’t want that on her conscience.
As a diabetic she knows how important this is.
In the event of a meds shortage Leavers won’t be safe, the UK won’t be pleasant.
Those gallows on display on Sunday may end up being used by those impacted by a meds shortage or their family.
If she was really brave she could go out and say that. What does she have to lose
May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
"no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
Unless the Tories are facing another 1997, in which case Mrs May might be the ideal person to take the blame.
No, we need every vote and seat to stop Corbyn, or Corbyn with a majority....
@ampfieldAndy Tweets from which ambitious malcontents would you be looking for signs of 'loyalty'? Hammond must still be walking the dogs.
Im reminded of comments from mps during the referendum that Cameron would not need to step down. They could say it because they knew he would so could presented loyal. Cabinet members who might want to appeal to some loyalists, waverers or reluctant opponents of may might claim support as they know she'll lose anyway, if that makes sense. The assassins of the 48 even if successful might not get a chance but someone who as loyal but will now do as the party says?
It is starting to feel like we are walking into managed no deal or second referendum by necessity. The problem with the latter is that any leadership contender who suggests another vote will probably not get on the ballot. Or will lose the membership.
Suspect the new leader would go to Brussels to ask for a renegotiation, they will tell them where to go and then it really is the end of the line.
This is the problem, isn't it? They'll feel obliged to preemptively disavow all possible routes out of the treacle.
The only person who can bring it off is a really shameless, audacious liar who can stand there telling the Tory members he won't give an inch then cheerfully lead his MPs through the lobby to vote for TMay's deal.
After 13 years of Labour, people were prepared to experiment with the Tory party again. The Lib Dem’s kept them sensible for 5 years, but now after just 3 years of governing alone we remember why they were rejected utterly in 1997. They have brought the nation to the brink and can only argue amongst themselves.
You’re not the Labour Party press officer, or spin officer.
Give it a rest.
Looked sound to me. The Tories are not capable of governing right now.
May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
"no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
Not at all. May will win because there are more remainers in the Tory Party than Leavers. No one, Remainers or Leavers wants May to lead them in the next general election. Those who support her tonight will still want her gone after she has delivered Remain or an ultra soft Brexit.
May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
"no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
Unless the Tories are facing another 1997, in which case Mrs May might be the ideal person to take the blame.
While Corbyn is there the chances of a 1997 style wipeout is minimal. Even against the worst Tory campaign in living memory we managed to get more votes and seats.
1. The Tory leadership voting system is so much more sensible than Labour's, ensuring as it does that the party membership is only presented with a choice between the two candidates most acceptable to the parliamentary party
2. While she clearly in not a quitter, one must think that Mrs May would be relieved to lose this vote.
It'll only be truly tested when the members choose the MPs' second choice, and that person has to carry that baggage around with them.
1. The Tory leadership voting system is so much more sensible than Labour's, ensuring as it does that the party membership is only presented with a choice between the two candidates most acceptable to the parliamentary party
2. While she clearly in not a quitter, one must think that Mrs May would be relieved to lose this vote.
Hmm... Arguably the disparity between membership and leader is a big part of the problem the Tories currently have?
May will win but hopefully the numbers against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweets it. The DUP won’t support her when that becomes clear and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
"no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election" negates your earlier assertion that she will win. We could shortly have an election.
Unless the Tories are facing another 1997, in which case Mrs May might be the ideal person to take the blame.
Except they are tied with Labour now, get rid of her and No Deal chaos and a defeat looks more likely
She's going to win the vote of no confidence isn't she? I guess she might resign anyway if it's close.
I hope not. I hope she makes damn clear that anyone who doesn't back her all the way should vote against, not assume if it is close she will step down, as she has no intention of doing so. Of course we know what her word is worth.
Remember - they are voting to give her an immoveable 12 months.
12 more months of this. With an election fronted by her? In a secret ballot?
Indeed. Avoiding a GE should be easy but is harder than it looks, especially if somehow a deal passes. Cabinet members cannot be relied on to back her. Loyalists like bigG reluctantly see she has to go surely many mps do too.
We've been told the chief whip was trying to canvass support in cabinet - I think she quits as they equivocate. Not all will be public in support.
With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
That didn't require hindsight. It was one of the more baffling things she has done, trying to avoid humiliation...by being humiliated. She lost much dignity in that moment and undermined much of the respect she had still earned.
May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want that
It makes total sense to launch it today. She can’t get her deal through Parliamment so it’s important a Brexiteer is now in charge. What th more Remainers than Leavers, May will win but enough May vote against her to encourage her to step down. Defeating Labour needs a new leader and that can’t cime soon enough.
With the benefit of hindsight she would have done better to press on with the meaningful vote. She gained no time and lost reputation by pulling it.
That didn't require hindsight. It was one of the more baffling things she has done, trying to avoid humiliation...by being humiliated. She lost much dignity in that moment and undermined much of the respect she had still earned.
I was being kind. That has been as corrosive to her authority as anything else she has done.
I am expecting her to lose tonight. A French egg is a French egg.
Idling wondering how the Conservatives can survive... The mutual loathing and bitterness, which they have for each other and which they have inflicted on the country, now seems to have reached escape velocity.
Perhaps they'll surprise us, but how? The only likely deal is one a hard core will never support, and another smaller chunk wont support no deal, and they hold each other in contempt. And we're supposed to be worried about Corbyn? I don't like the man but we need more than fear of him.
May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want that
It makes total sense to launch it today. She can’t get her deal through Parliamment so it’s important a Brexiteer is now in charge. What th more Remainers than Leavers, May will win but enough May vote against her to encourage her to step down. Defeating Labour needs a new leader and that can’t cime soon enough.
The minute a brexiteer takes charge upto 20 conservatives will resign the whip and a GE becomes almost certain
Is there a conflict between two well established memes - that she is increasingly admired for her fortitude (and so more electable?) and that she is electoral disaster. We will probably never know.
1. The Tory leadership voting system is so much more sensible than Labour's, ensuring as it does that the party membership is only presented with a choice between the two candidates most acceptable to the parliamentary party
2. While she clearly in not a quitter, one must think that Mrs May would be relieved to lose this vote.
Hmm... Arguably the disparity between membership and leader is a big part of the problem the Tories currently have?
Would that matter had she kept the Parliamentary Party with her? Leadership need only face the public at election time or in times of national crisis; it has to work with the PP every day in government.
1. The Tory leadership voting system is so much more sensible than Labour's, ensuring as it does that the party membership is only presented with a choice between the two candidates most acceptable to the parliamentary party
2. While she clearly in not a quitter, one must think that Mrs May would be relieved to lose this vote.
The Labour process would have worked OK if MPs hadn't nominated someone they thought was terrible to give the voters a choice, thinking they'd be too sensible to take it. I know that sounds insane now, but they were innocent times.
Comments
Tom Peck of the Independent on SKY says she will lose it comfortably.
I still think most would give her the benefit of the doubt for now (especially given the fear of who follows).
But the anger about the cancelled vote, and the fact those supporting her are backing her for a year without further challenge, makes me think that’s by no means certain. And even if she scrapes it she has some thinking to do... because the forthcoming parliamentary shenanigans is no place for a leader who’s lost the publicly-if-anonymously-stated confidence of 40pc of her party.
madness.
but not decisive - they have been twaddling around this for weeks. I wonder if JRM will claim any credit to try and restore his decreased authority?
https://mobile.twitter.com/Anna_Soubry/status/1072754552225583104
Make your mind up Anna!
Anyway, my total stake was tiny.
On topic: if not now, when?
She doesn’t want that on her conscience.
As a diabetic she knows how important this is.
In the event of a meds shortage Leavers won’t be safe, the UK won’t be pleasant.
Those gallows on display on Sunday may end up being used by those impacted by a meds shortage or their family.
These guys are already at "bargaining":
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1072770302541746176
1. The Tory leadership voting system is so much more sensible than Labour's, ensuring as it does that the party membership is only presented with a choice between the two candidates most acceptable to the parliamentary party
2. While she clearly in not a quitter, one must think that Mrs May would be relieved to lose this vote.
https://twitter.com/annaturley/status/1072763252638171137?s=21
Look out for politicians with dental appointments today.
We've been told the chief whip was trying to canvass support in cabinet - I think she quits as they equivocate. Not all will be public in support. That didn't require hindsight. It was one of the more baffling things she has done, trying to avoid humiliation...by being humiliated. She lost much dignity in that moment and undermined much of the respect she had still earned.
Problem is no tory could offer a referendum and hope to win the MPs/Membership. That would be poison.
So, risks a fundamental split of the party.
Loses VONC in commons
General Election Boris vs. Corbyn
I am expecting her to lose tonight. A French egg is a French egg.
https://twitter.com/michaelgove/status/1072767423697309696
... and voting for her ...
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1072766026536882176