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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and

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  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Scott_P said:
    Will he allow pairing in tonight's vote?
    There won’t be pairing in a VONC in the house - this Guy is despicable
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,257
    Donny43 said:

    No, they don't. They want the decision of the first vote changed. They've just assumed that having another referendum is the best way to do it but would quite happily settle for parliament overturning the result themselves.

    Yep. If parliament cannot deliver any version of Leave they should revoke article 50 so that we stay in. Preferably accompanied by an apology for including an undeliverable option in the 2016 referendum. That is the correct course of action if we are to remain.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Roger said:

    AndyJS said:

    Roger said:

    I think I've found someone who trumps Owen Patterson.

    I give you Andrea Jenkyns! What a piece of work

    She defeated Ed Balls in 2015 in Morley & Outwood.
    Remind me to give Morely & Outwood a very wide berth.
    Is it TSE who was proud of helping her?
    Obviously sight unseen
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329

    Brom said:

    Roger said:

    AndyJS said:

    Roger said:

    I think I've found someone who trumps Owen Patterson.

    I give you Andrea Jenkyns! What a piece of work

    She defeated Ed Balls in 2015 in Morley & Outwood.
    Remind me to give Morely & Outwood a very wide berth.
    Is it TSE who was proud of helping her?
    Andrea Jenkyns would make a decent stalking horse for the ERG. I'm sure she would be happy to go on manoeuvres on behalf of Boris.
    I'm sure the line has been run already, but does the term 'stalking donkey' exist?
    There is no provision for a stalking horse. There in a VONC, and then if lost a leadership election. Where would a stalking horse fit in?
  • Brom said:

    Roger said:

    AndyJS said:

    Roger said:

    I think I've found someone who trumps Owen Patterson.

    I give you Andrea Jenkyns! What a piece of work

    She defeated Ed Balls in 2015 in Morley & Outwood.
    Remind me to give Morely & Outwood a very wide berth.
    Is it TSE who was proud of helping her?
    Andrea Jenkyns would make a decent stalking horse for the ERG. I'm sure she would be happy to go on manoeuvres on behalf of Boris.
    I'm sure the line has been run already, but does the term 'stalking donkey' exist?
    No form of stalking animal is required under the current rules.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Pulpstar said:

    All the big cabinet beasts out in support.

    Not news, is it? If you didn't signal your support you'd have to resign - and why do that when she might be gone this evening?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,286
    Scott_P said:
    As the BBC commented:

    "Chief whip now backing May
    He was one of three cabinet ministers not to have tweeted their support.."

    Does that imply he was counting before committing ?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    What a mess. Europe still is utter kryptonite to the Tories.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    AndyJS said:

    Roger said:

    I think I've found someone who trumps Owen Patterson.

    I give you Andrea Jenkyns! What a piece of work

    She defeated Ed Balls in 2015 in Morley & Outwood.
    Remind me to give Morely & Outwood a very wide berth.
    Is it TSE who was proud of helping her?
    Obviously sight unseen
    I’m sure Andrea Jenkyns is distraught that you don’t like her!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,286

    Brom said:

    Roger said:

    AndyJS said:

    Roger said:

    I think I've found someone who trumps Owen Patterson.

    I give you Andrea Jenkyns! What a piece of work

    She defeated Ed Balls in 2015 in Morley & Outwood.
    Remind me to give Morely & Outwood a very wide berth.
    Is it TSE who was proud of helping her?
    Andrea Jenkyns would make a decent stalking horse for the ERG. I'm sure she would be happy to go on manoeuvres on behalf of Boris.
    I'm sure the line has been run already, but does the term 'stalking donkey' exist?
    There is no provision for a stalking horse. There in a VONC, and then if lost a leadership election. Where would a stalking horse fit in?
    Plenty of talking donkeys, though.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    We'll know she is in real trouble if he ERG start coming out in support xD
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    As the BBC commented:

    "Chief whip now backing May
    He was one of three cabinet ministers not to have tweeted their support.."

    Does that imply he was counting before committing ?
    If he is supporting her she is probably going to lose based on his previous counting
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    It's also one thing publicly saying you're doing something, and then following through in private, as the ERG knows, and May's bunch may be about to find out.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    Donny43 said:

    Why do Tory Leavers hate the will of the people.

    The country elected Theresa May as PM last year.

    Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacy
    Even the so-called "People's Vote" mob don't actually want another referendum.
    Er, yes we do!
    You do. Some of your cohorts want only to reverse brexit. They see a vote as the way to do that, but an actual second referendum supporter wants the vote to settle things whatever it's outcome. ,Even if they prefer one over the other they want the people to decide, not just see it as a way to get what they want
    Maybe so.

    I think the referendum needs to be overturned by a further referendum, or of course confirmed.

    Double or quits is something people understand. :)
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634
    Scott_P said:
    This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.
  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    Scott_P said:
    She's going to win isn't she?

    And then just run the clock down with her crappy deal that's never going to get through parliament.

    So no deal with zero planning or remain without a referendum it is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    Scott_P said:
    Macrons En Marche has a safe majority though doesn't it?
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's going to win isn't she?

    And then just run the clock down with her crappy deal that's never going to get through parliament.

    So no deal with zero planning or remain without a referendum it is.
    I think the Tories losing a VONC in the new year is looking ever more likely.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It looks like only 29 of the 48 Tory MPs submitting letters made their decision public:

    Baker, Blunt, Bone, Bradley, Bridgen, Cash, Caulfield, Clarke, Davies, Dorries, Duddridge, Francois, Fysh, Goldsmith, Green, Holloway, Hollobone, Jenkyns, Jones, Lewer, Morris, Murray, Paterson, Rees-Mogg, Robertson, Rowley, Smith, Vickers, Whittingdale.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Theresa May has all the right enemies.

    Andrea Jenkyns
    Owen Paterson
    Bill Cash
    JRM
    Andrew Bridgen
    Mark Francois
    James Duddridge

    I hope May squishes them.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Scott_P said:

    notme said:

    I have party members who are frothing at the mouth for a no deal.

    Only because they are blissfully unaware of the consequences
    Depends if they are pensioners. It's clear that they feel immune from any adverse consequences.

  • XenonXenon Posts: 471
    DanSmith said:

    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's going to win isn't she?

    And then just run the clock down with her crappy deal that's never going to get through parliament.

    So no deal with zero planning or remain without a referendum it is.
    I think the Tories losing a VONC in the new year is looking ever more likely.
    With the DUP voting against?

    I think they'd prefer to wait until the last minute to nuke the deal if there's a small chance it will get through parliament.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Fair play to Graham Brady, he's played an absolubtely honest game with a straight bat.
  • Rather than a list of the MPs tweeting their support, I'd like to see a list of the MPs keeping quiet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    All the big cabinet beasts out in support.

    Not news, is it? If you didn't signal your support you'd have to resign - and why do that when she might be gone this evening?
    This.

    Plus the support of the Cabinet is what, half the number of those who have sent in letters.

    This vote is not about the support of Cabinet members. It's whether the Hon. Member for Peasedown on the Wolds wants her leading the Party into a potentially imminent election.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,042
    I always thought that stalking was more of a feline than an equine characteristic.

    Can't we have a Stalking Pussy?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Xenon said:

    DanSmith said:

    Xenon said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's going to win isn't she?

    And then just run the clock down with her crappy deal that's never going to get through parliament.

    So no deal with zero planning or remain without a referendum it is.
    I think the Tories losing a VONC in the new year is looking ever more likely.
    With the DUP voting against?

    I think they'd prefer to wait until the last minute to nuke the deal if there's a small chance it will get through parliament.
    The DUP have more patience than the ERG.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    Pulpstar said:
    He's Liddington's bag-man - was never going to do anything else.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2018
    It'll be embarrassing for Tory MPs if say 250 of them issue public statements of support for Mrs May and then she only gets 150 votes at the contest tonight. They're probably hoping that no-one keeps a running list of endorsements, which is all the more reason for someone to do so.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited December 2018

    Judging by the outpouring of May support by Tory MPs the country is stuck with her for another 12 months.

    As its a secret ballot I don't think the public pronouncements of support are worth the paper they're not written on...

    My guess is that she does win but only narrowly. She'll try to cling on by her fingertips like El Gord but early next week the Cabinet will tell her times up.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1072797126558695424

    The secret ballot v public declarations of support.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,286

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_P said:
    As the BBC commented:

    "Chief whip now backing May
    He was one of three cabinet ministers not to have tweeted their support.."

    Does that imply he was counting before committing ?
    If he is supporting her she is probably going to lose based on his previous counting
    Fair point.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    The general consensus at the moment on twitter is that she'll win big

    BUT - how are we meant to know? There was always going to be a coordinated effort by the whips, but also- the vote is a secret ballot. So surely it's not wise to be totting up declarations of support for May when we'll have no idea...
  • Rather than a list of the MPs tweeting their support, I'd like to see a list of the MPs keeping quiet.

    Forget the MPs, what does Philip May think? Denis was pivotal in persuading Margaret Thatcher to throw in the towel, according to at least some reports.
  • https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1072797126558695424


    These figures don't look particularly good to me for Theresa May. Not all public declarations of confidence will be followed through on and silence, the longer it goes on, the more ominous it looks.
  • Scott_P said:
    Future historians might find Graham Brady's behaviour the most baffling of all.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Remember that *every single member* of the Shadow Cabinet publicly supported IDS before his VONC, which he then lost by a whopping margin.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1072797126558695424


    These figures don't look particularly good to me for Theresa May. Not all public declarations of confidence will be followed through on and silence, the longer it goes on, the more ominous it looks.

    Just what I was hoping for, thanks for the link.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    The BBC appear to be able to tweet about the retrial of Peterborough's MP. The one with a small majority.

    https://twitter.com/SiDedman/status/1072798590895050752
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Scott_P said:
    Please spare clogging up the site with inane twitter rants just for one day! Dan Hodges knows less than you or I about developments.
    Are you the site editor?

    Mike finds these tweets useful.
    A bit of quality control or a mute button wouldn't go amiss. I could easily subscribe to someone's twitter feed if required.
  • Remember that *every single member* of the Shadow Cabinet publicly supported IDS before his VONC, which he then lost by a whopping margin.

    He lost by 15 votes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Remember that *every single member* of the Shadow Cabinet publicly supported IDS before his VONC, which he then lost by a whopping margin.

    He lost 90-75 - I'm not sure you can call that a whopping margin.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ding dong the witch is dead.
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Scott_P said:
    Future historians might find Graham Brady's behaviour the most baffling of all.
    Brady, presumably, originally proposed Monday to allow May to complete her Futility Tour, and give her the weekend to make her case.

    But if May said she wanted to get it out of the way fast, I think it would have been churlish of Brady to refuse.

    Can't seriously imagine there's anybody left who hasn't made up their mind, surely?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Brom said:

    A bit of quality control or a mute button wouldn't go amiss. I could easily subscribe to someone's twitter feed if required.

    You are not obliged to read any of them
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251

    Scott_P said:
    Future historians might find Graham Brady's behaviour the most baffling of all.
    If someone retracted their letter could they pull the vote? (Something T May is good at).
  • Mr. Meeks, I'm feeling fairly comfortable with the 3 on 100-149 and 3 on 150-199 voting against May I backed earlier.

    If 86 are overtly against here that suggests it'll top 100. Well, to me anyway.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Check the number of ministers saying they "support" Theresa May against those - far fewer- who day they will vote for her. This might seem to over analyse, but politicians choose their words carefully. The second statement would be a lie if they do vote against, while "support" can mean what you want it to mean. Ditto "Now is not the time for a divisive leadership election". It doesn't mean they won't vote against May in that divisive election.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    TGOHF said:

    Ding dong the witch is dead.

    Or possibly undead.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    The general consensus at the moment on twitter is that she'll win big

    BUT - how are we meant to know? There was always going to be a coordinated effort by the whips, but also- the vote is a secret ballot. So surely it's not wise to be totting up declarations of support for May when we'll have no idea...

    It's definitely a betting opportunity. I think she'll win, narrowly, but the 3/1 you can get on Betfair Exchange right now on her losing looks tempting.

    What people say in public and what people say in private are two different things, plus May's strategy is clear now - run down the clock (and potentially run the economy into the ground) until we grasp at the last minute for her deal. That gives remainers and ERG-ers a solid reason to depose her now.

    Not to mention the fact she's an absolute liability if she leads the Tories into an election in 2019. If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    tlg86 said:

    Remember that *every single member* of the Shadow Cabinet publicly supported IDS before his VONC, which he then lost by a whopping margin.

    He lost 90-75 - I'm not sure you can call that a whopping margin.
    Oh, I remember it being bigger. Possibly the massive surge of joy I felt has clouded my memory.
  • Why not reply to the substance of the tweet rather than shooting the messenger.
    He only ever is a messenger.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    edited December 2018

    TGOHF said:

    Ding dong the witch is dead.

    Or possibly undead.
    She will be politically undead for a year if the Tories fail to depose her now.
    Complete unbridled power !
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    Why not reply to the substance of the tweet rather than shooting the messenger.
    He only ever is a messenger.....
    If only there were some website where all these so-called "tweets" were collated, perhaps giving people the ability to subscribe to the ones they want to see.
  • Mr. Meeks, I'm feeling fairly comfortable with the 3 on 100-149 and 3 on 150-199 voting against May I backed earlier.

    If 86 are overtly against here that suggests it'll top 100. Well, to me anyway.

    If those reported public numbers are roughly right I'd expect Theresa May to get something like 125 votes. A lot of those public professions of loyalty will be public only.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ding dong the witch is dead.

    Or possibly undead.
    She will be politically undead for a year if the Tories fail to depose her now.
    Complete unbridled power !
    The complete unbridled power of wasting another six weeks indulging in futile displacement activity until 21st Jan.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Betfair market thinks it's 75% for May to win ........ but that suggests she'll be pretty badly wounded by the result. 60/40?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    Ding dong the witch is dead.

    Or possibly undead.
    Will Olly Robbins still get his bonus this year ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1072797126558695424


    These figures don't look particularly good to me for Theresa May. Not all public declarations of confidence will be followed through on and silence, the longer it goes on, the more ominous it looks.

    Now 172 confidence, 81 no confidence. I think sh'e got this.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    She goes before Christmas or she goes next Spring. Those are the only foreseeable options.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Mr. Meeks, I'm feeling fairly comfortable with the 3 on 100-149 and 3 on 150-199 voting against May I backed earlier.

    If 86 are overtly against here that suggests it'll top 100. Well, to me anyway.

    If those reported public numbers are roughly right I'd expect Theresa May to get something like 125 votes. A lot of those public professions of loyalty will be public only.
    Well we all know most likely Gove's support is public only !
  • Will her performance at PMQs change anything?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Barnesian said:

    https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1072797126558695424


    These figures don't look particularly good to me for Theresa May. Not all public declarations of confidence will be followed through on and silence, the longer it goes on, the more ominous it looks.

    Now 172 confidence, 81 no confidence. I think sh'e got this.
    176-80 now
  • glwglw Posts: 9,914
    Scott_P said:
    That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.
  • Mr. Meeks, I'm feeling fairly comfortable with the 3 on 100-149 and 3 on 150-199 voting against May I backed earlier.

    If 86 are overtly against here that suggests it'll top 100. Well, to me anyway.

    If those reported public numbers are roughly right I'd expect Theresa May to get something like 125 votes. A lot of those public professions of loyalty will be public only.
    I disagree. This is a vote to hand the tory party over to the ERG, which only has 70-80 members??

    I think it'll be 115-202 or so...
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234

    Will her performance at PMQs change anything?

    I want to be quite clear that nothing has changed.

    This deal is the only deal.

    I am getting on with the job of delivering Brexit.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,621
    Andrew said:

    Betfair market thinks it's 75% for May to win ........ but that suggests she'll be pretty badly wounded by the result. 60/40?

    70/30
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.
    If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    A win is a win for May.
  • Will her performance at PMQs change anything?

    It depends what the EU27 leaders told Theresa May about rural bus routes, or whatever else Jeremy Corbyn decides to ask.
  • glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.
    Also doesn't apply as it's a private vote, so members of the government aren't bound
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Pulpstar said:

    A win is a win for May.

    A win is a win for Remain.
  • glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.
    If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.
    Whatever happens it;ll she do a heck of a lot better than Corbyn did in his VONC... and he stayed on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Pulpstar said:

    A win is a win for May.

    A win is a win for Remain.
    Well yes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,286
    Fenster said:
    COTD ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.
    If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.
    As one Tory MP said on R5 : "stamina isn't strategy".

  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Will her performance at PMQs change anything?

    I want to be quite clear that nothing has changed.

    This deal is the only deal.

    I am getting on with the job of delivering Brexit.
    Yes she is a bit repetitive and boring.
  • The Number 10 spin last time was that it was May vs ERG. May's supporters need the spectre of the headbangers, even if it is most likely the next leader will be a Cabinet minister, and probably in a coronation.
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    Yes, you can publicly declare your support for May and then stab her in the back in the vote. The joys of a secret ballot.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IMO the number voting in favour of No Confidence will between 100 and 165 which obviously doesn't get us very far, a bit like the BBC's 1987 election exit poll which said the Tory majority would be between 20 and 100.
  • Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    Ding dong the witch is dead.

    Or possibly undead.
    She will be politically undead for a year if the Tories fail to depose her now.
    Complete unbridled power !
    The complete unbridled power of wasting another six weeks indulging in futile displacement activity until 21st Jan.
    This is a nice test of the "she has a Cunning Sneaky Plan" theory vs the "she has Absolutely No Idea What She's Doing" hypothesis. On CSP Theory she needed to get the leadership spill done so she can do the vote and pivot. Per ANIWSD she'll just keep stalling until January 21st and hope something lucky happens.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,728
    An anecdote:

    I was at a children's birthday party yesterday afternoon, and I listened to three other dads talk about this mess. I'm in a fairly strongly remain/Conservative area, but one of them (at least) is a Lib Dem.

    All three expressed support for May, even if through gritted teeth. One said he thought she was the best option, and all three seemed to support the deal.

    (Although as always when listening to such conversations, you have little idea how much agreement is real and just feigned to stop disagreements.)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,627
    The only number you can rely on today are those saying they won't vote for May.

    Within those declaring they are "supporting" her will be a significant number of duplicitous bastards. Inside Cabinet too. Politics at its least edifying.
  • We're not leaving the EU, and we'll have a Corbyn government next year. Modern Tories just aren't very good at this politics thing.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    edited December 2018
    TGOHF said:

    glw said:

    Scott_P said:
    That sounds like the sort of thing idiots expecting to lose would say.
    If May doesn't win by enough, she'll still be fatally wounded. Her entire schtick is to try to credibly claim there's a public route to her deal getting through Parliament. If 80+ of her party say WE WANT YOU GONE, then even her dimwit chief whip should be able to realise those numbers don't add up.
    As one Tory MP said on R5 : "stamina isn't strategy".

    Tell that to Ali... Rope-a-dope worked for him.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited December 2018
    Desmond Swayne on Radio Five Live says he hasn't made up his mind yet. First Tory MP I've heard say that.

    He says he didn't submit a letter, and didn't want a contest. But could still vote against May.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    179-80
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    That 2019 GE point is an interesting one. Despite the FTPA it must at least be an outside chance. May at the helm?
This discussion has been closed.