ERG are in the process of losing brexit. If they succeed tonight and an ERG member takes over upto 20 conservative mps will resign the whip
The ERG won't win the leadership, they don't have enough votes to get anyone through to the final two.
From an incredibly good source - Javid is a no dealer as well. No outcomes here are good.
Well, if the options are No-deal, May's Deal, or Referendum, then if May's deal dies with her.
Problem is no tory could offer a referendum and hope to win the MPs/Membership. That would be poison.
So, risks a fundamental split of the party.
Yep - although leaving on a publicly unverified no deal (which at the end of March might command less than a third of the electorate's support) is a form of suicide for them as well.
Can Sunil or TSE make me a bar chart with "Years since Con PM ousted because of something other than Europe", value 44, and "Years since Con PM ousted because Europe", which will either be 2 or 0 depending on when today you make it.
Even Ted Heath losing in 1975 could be partly put down to Europe and his overenthusiastic support for it in the eyes of many Tory MPs, although that wasn't the main reason which was losing 3 out of 4 elections in terms of seats.
So if May loses who does the Queen ask to form a government?
Is there any scenario where, because there is no official leader of the Tories, Lab get asked due to the PM being VoNCed? As the Tories don't have a natural majority in the House, it is possible that Corbyn is in a better position to form a government than a leaderless Tory party?
So if May loses who does the Queen ask to form a government?
Is there any scenario where, because there is no official leader of the Tories, Lab get asked due to the PM being VoNCed? As the Tories don't have a natural majority in the House, it is possible that Corbyn is in a better position to form a government than a leaderless Tory party?
Is there a conflict between two well established memes - that she is increasingly admired for her fortitude (and so more electable?) and that she is electoral disaster. We will probably never know.
Holding a No Deal line for three months is going to be very tricky for the new leader, especially when the bad news starts to multiply.
Completely. They will have minority public backing for this form of Brexit; plus it isn't even the first voting priority for many in a GE anyway (even if they are obsessed). Crazy.
Separately, Owen Patterson is a complete idiot....
So if May loses who does the Queen ask to form a government?
Is there any scenario where, because there is no official leader of the Tories, Lab get asked due to the PM being VoNCed? As the Tories don't have a natural majority in the House, it is possible that Corbyn is in a better position to form a government than a leaderless Tory party?
If she loses she remains PM until her successor is elected
Surely the possibility article 50 suspension has to be a factor in the next few weeks?
And can somebody please explain (because understanding Labour is now beyond my ken) just what the impact of this is on Corbyn's position. Is it better because Tories are a mess or worse because likely election means fighting a new leader.
The fact that last year most voters backed parties opposing a No Deal Brexit is going to become increasingly relevant as the loons drive us over the cliff. If it wasn’t for the damage it will do, the end of the Conservatives as a serious party of government would be a joy to behold.
So if May loses who does the Queen ask to form a government?
Is there any scenario where, because there is no official leader of the Tories, Lab get asked due to the PM being VoNCed? As the Tories don't have a natural majority in the House, it is possible that Corbyn is in a better position to form a government than a leaderless Tory party?
I always thought the outgoing pm is supposed to tell HM who to call next. Because there's no obvious Tory leader I think May won't resign as PM as she won't be able to give a name. Sure Corbyn might be closer to being able to get a majority right now but he doesn't realistically have a great chance if doing so. FTPA may have changed it up too.
May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want that
It makes total sense to launch it today. She can’t get her deal through Parliamment so it’s important a Brexiteer is now in charge. What th more Remainers than Leavers, May will win but enough May vote against her to encourage her to step down. Defeating Labour needs a new leader and that can’t cime soon enough.
The minute a brexiteer takes charge upto 20 conservatives will resign the whip and a GE becomes almost certain
Better a GE with the Tories led by a Brexiteer than Theresa “nothing has changed” May and her atrocious deal and blankety blank domestic policy agenda.
The risk of May being bomb-proof with a general election looming is what dooms her.
Tom Peck of the Independent on SKY says she will lose it comfortably.
After ducking plan B questions for a month, May bounded herself unambiguously on Monday to stand and fall by the current deal, no Norway, no remain, no no deal under her.
Therefore at first pass the confidence numbers to initially follow the Deal vote numbers. If we figure that around 110 of 250 backbench were against (sans a few payroll resignees), and that the payroll will split similarly, then we are at about 175-140.
At second pass, the prospect of locking in May for a year I reckon drives more votes against and this will outnumber anti-deal May backers, who would be mainly on the Remain wrong and few in number.
A narrow May win, with both sides screaming abuse in each other's faces would do for me. Then an immediate VONC so that the hypocritical wazzocks could be given the opportunity to lie to the camera about how having seconds ago screamed abuse about the Prime Minister demanding she goes that actually they do have confidence in her
May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want that
It makes total sense to launch it today. She can’t get her deal through Parliamment so it’s important a Brexiteer is now in charge. What th more Remainers than Leavers, May will win but enough May vote against her to encourage her to step down. Defeating Labour needs a new leader and that can’t cime soon enough.
The minute a brexiteer takes charge upto 20 conservatives will resign the whip and a GE becomes almost certain
Better a GE with the Tories led by a Brexiteer than Theresa “nothing has changed” May and her atrocious deal and blankety blank domestic policy agenda.
It will not be the tories. It will be UKIP, all the conservatives will have resigned
ERG are in the process of losing brexit. If they succeed tonight and an ERG member takes over upto 20 conservative mps will resign the whip
The ERG won't win the leadership, they don't have enough votes to get anyone through to the final two.
From an incredibly good source - Javid is a no dealer as well. No outcomes here are good.
Well, if the options are No-deal, May's Deal, or Referendum, then if May's deal dies with her.
Problem is no tory could offer a referendum and hope to win the MPs/Membership. That would be poison.
So, risks a fundamental split of the party.
Yep - although leaving on a publicly unverified no deal (which at the end of March might command less than a third of the electorate's support) is a form of suicide for them as well.
Yes indeed. Managed no deal if they cannot renegotiate seems like the only way someone gets to be leader but 2 months from now the public might be more concerned. And it's not easy to even pull a Tsipras and capitulate. He did despite a public vote, but our pm needs parliamentary approval and they might block capitulation no matter what.
May will win tonight but hopefully the numbers voting against her will be large enough to persuade her to step down. Her deal is a failure and won’t get through Parliament no matter how much she tweeks it. The DUP won’t support her when it becomes clear that the backstop stays and no Tory wants a liability like May to lead them into the next General Election.
If that was true they would not have launched this today. It is madness as should she win she has 12 more months. I do not want that
It makes total sense to launch it today. She can’t get her deal through Parliamment so it’s important a Brexiteer is now in charge. What th more Remainers than Leavers, May will win but enough May vote against her to encourage her to step down. Defeating Labour needs a new leader and that can’t cime soon enough.
The minute a brexiteer takes charge upto 20 conservatives will resign the whip and a GE becomes almost certain
Better a GE with the Tories led by a Brexiteer than Theresa “nothing has changed” May and her atrocious deal and blankety blank domestic policy agenda.
It will not be the tories. It will be UKIP, all the conservatives will have resigned
That slur won’t wash but if you want to sod off to the LibDems, be my guest.
May laying down the hard facts. Back me, or lose Brexit and let Labour in..
Balls in the ERG court....
Yes but most Conservative MPs are Remainers so the Prime Minister's forewarnings of rescinding or extending Article 50 might be quite appealing, in which case she has just shot her own foot off.
Is there a conflict between two well established memes - that she is increasingly admired for her fortitude (and so more electable?) and that she is electoral disaster. We will probably never know.
May be but they are not mutually exclusive. Admired for fortitude doesn't necessarily mean people would back her in a vote.
How much do MPs game their vote? In the US Congress, it happens all the time. If it is safe to vote against their party, they do so they can use that in the next election. Otherwise, they eat their principles and keep the party in power.
Fox might just be saying he's supporting May because he knows she is going to lose ... Or am I too cynical?
So if May loses who does the Queen ask to form a government?
Is there any scenario where, because there is no official leader of the Tories, Lab get asked due to the PM being VoNCed? As the Tories don't have a natural majority in the House, it is possible that Corbyn is in a better position to form a government than a leaderless Tory party?
I always thought the outgoing pm is supposed to tell HM who to call next. Because there's no obvious Tory leader I think May won't resign as PM as she won't be able to give a name. Sure Corbyn might be closer to being able to get a majority right now but he doesn't realistically have a great chance if doing so. FTPA may have changed it up too.
If May resigned as PM before the Tories elected a new leader, it would put the Queen in an impossible position and draw the monarchy into the centre of the Brexit crisis.
May laying down the hard facts. Back me, or lose Brexit and let Labour in..
Balls in the ERG court....
Yes but most Conservative MPs are Remainers so the Prime Minister's forewarnings of rescinding or extending Article 50 might be quite appealing, in which case she has just shot her own foot off.
apart from the fact that a no-dealer would win the contest and be the new PM (or at least the leader of the Tory Party), and no doubt carry the process across to labour.
I don't see how she can lose. Those voting against her would have to line up with the ERGers AND have another leader in mind. How many will vote against her when Boris might win? My guess is less than 100 will vote against her and she'll stay on
How much do MPs game their vote? In the US Congress, it happens all the time. If it is safe to vote against their party, they do so they can use that in the next election. Otherwise, they eat their principles and keep the party in power.
Fox might just be saying he's supporting May because he knows she is going to lose ... Or am I too cynical?
It's a secret ballot. As a Cabinet member he has to publicly back the PM - his position in Cabinet would be untenable otherwise. I do hope someone is tallying the public declarations to compare against the actual vote.
So we have 4 key dynamics: #1 Vote May to prevent utter chaos #2 Vote against May to save save the government from the DUP. #3 Should Uber Remainers vote against May to kill Brexit ? #4 Do pragmatists vote against May to bring government into line with the Tory membership as they know May's deal will split the Tory Party assunder ?
So when no 10 look at today's electorate who do they make promises to - the ERG or the remainers. Her best bet is to offer BINO. Also how can Corbyn wriggle out of his VONC now?
I disagree. If and it’s a big if, the EU were willing to be flexible and agree side deals on a host of regulatory matters and grandfather us in to existing regulatory agreements we are party to. That could be done very easily. But they’ve made it fairly clear so far, that we need to own Brexit. It’s wa or no deal. I would expect them to relent on some things.
I have party members who are frothing at the mouth for a no deal.
It'll be interesting to see if any Tory MPs who refused to sign a letter nonetheless say they'll vote against her tonight. Probably very few will say so publicly.
Question: how many Tory MPs unexpectedly had their majorities cut to at the last election following Mrs May's inept campaign?
Soubry and Rudd for two so they clearly don’t care about being re-elected.
The ones trying to keep the party on the centre ground are the only ones that care. The extremists are far more concerned about the EU than their are about their own government, and the real nutters are mostly in safe seats and personally don't care at all.
The Commons has to vote for that deal, or vote to overturn the referendum result, or accept that we leave with no withdrawal agreement.
It's already absolutely clear that the deal will not pass the Commons. It was to be defeated so heavily that she pulled it because frit. Think how much support it would get having had her cling on in a shouty confidence vote in her frit non-leadership.
The deal is dead. The referendum cannot be delivered without crash Brexit which MPs also will not allow. Which means at the very least kicking the A50 can down the road...
I disagree. If and it’s a big if, the EU were willing to be flexible and agree side deals on a host of regulatory matters and grandfather us in to existing regulatory agreements we are party to.
Comments
Is there any scenario where, because there is no official leader of the Tories, Lab get asked due to the PM being VoNCed? As the Tories don't have a natural majority in the House, it is possible that Corbyn is in a better position to form a government than a leaderless Tory party?
https://youtu.be/kYL35rZKQo4
Separately, Owen Patterson is a complete idiot....
https://twitter.com/LiamFox/status/1072771321422057472
And can somebody please explain (because understanding Labour is now beyond my ken) just what the impact of this is on Corbyn's position. Is it better because Tories are a mess or worse because likely election means fighting a new leader.
Therefore at first pass the confidence numbers to initially follow the Deal vote numbers. If we figure that around 110 of 250 backbench were against (sans a few payroll resignees), and that the payroll will split similarly, then we are at about 175-140.
At second pass, the prospect of locking in May for a year I reckon drives more votes against and this will outnumber anti-deal May backers, who would be mainly on the Remain wrong and few in number.
She could well lose in absolute numbers.
Balls in the ERG court....
The Commons has to vote for that deal, or vote to overturn the referendum result, or accept that we leave with no withdrawal agreement.
https://youtu.be/DNyKDI9pn0Q
Do we have a timetable for today's doings?
Fox might just be saying he's supporting May because he knows she is going to lose ... Or am I too cynical?
Quite possible that May will do it, then. :-(
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/conservative-party/theresa-may/news/100526/updating-live-theresa-may
Hammond still walking his dogs?
I have party members who are frothing at the mouth for a no deal.
The deal is dead. The referendum cannot be delivered without crash Brexit which MPs also will not allow. Which means at the very least kicking the A50 can down the road...
Read it carefully. It made me laugh.
https://twitter.com/juliahb1/status/1072611436076126211?s=21