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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and

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  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    That SPIN market moving lower 98 - 106
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    glw said:

    DavidL said:

    Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.

    If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.

    I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaning
    I listen to Radio 5 every morning, unless they are playing games there really does seem to be a significant level of support for May amongst the listeners, even if it is reluctant. And there certainly is very little belief that anyone else can produce a substantially better deal.
    I think if push came to shove the general public would support the deal. The problem is that May knowing the views of the DUP and with a minority government has brought back a deal that cannot garner the support of the conservative / DUP block. Therefore it won’t get through Parliament unless opposition parties vote in the national interest with their conscience which they won’t. The thing I cannot understand is that the EU must know this, they won’t give a deal that will get through the house, but expect her to do it!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Andrew said:

    SPIN traitor market midpoint now 102. EM publicly declared rebel scum: 82.

    Must not play this market.
    It's a buy I think at 102, but the rake looks too big for my liking.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591

    I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....

    How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?

    The Tory party has become a cult, selections are won by those who express the most fervent belief, and (as with all cults) these tend to be blinkered and obsessive individuals unable to make balanced judgments or adapt their beliefs to changing circumstances.
  • AndyJS said:

    Does that mean she would vote in favour of a No Confidence motion in the government in the Commons?
    Depends who the leader is at the time of the VONC.
  • AmpfieldAndyAmpfieldAndy Posts: 1,445
    edited December 2018
    There aren’t many good reasons for voting for either Boris or JRM but Heidi Allen resigning is definitely one of them.
  • Thatcher won the VONC but still had to step down because the Cabinet told her she could not continue with so many MPs against her.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited December 2018
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,742

    Thatcher won the VONC but still had to step down because the Cabinet told her she could not continue with so many MPs against her.
    No, that wasn’t a VONC but a leadership contest that she didn’t win by enough which meant there would be a second round of voting.
  • I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....

    How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?

    The Tory party has become a cult, selections are won by those who express the most fervent belief, and (as with all cults) these tend to be blinkered and obsessive individuals unable to make balanced judgments or adapt their beliefs to changing circumstances.
    Conviction politicians can be effective. eg Thatcher.
  • Thatcher won the VONC but still had to step down because the Cabinet told her she could not continue with so many MPs against her.
    Not this time. ERG have been plain stupid doing this now
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Norm said:

    If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.

    Too late shirley?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220

    Thatcher won the VONC but still had to step down because the Cabinet told her she could not continue with so many MPs against her.
    Not this time. ERG have been plain stupid doing this now
    They were daft not to withdraw their letters, May loyalist might have pushed the number over the top.
  • Norm said:

    If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.

    Exactly
  • I agree that winning by 1 is not enough for TMay.

    But is 80 rebels survivable?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,220
    Norm said:

    If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.

    Can they at this point ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    Thatcher won the VONC but still had to step down because the Cabinet told her she could not continue with so many MPs against her.
    Not this time. ERG have been plain stupid doing this now
    It depends on what you think their motives are. I actually think keeping May in place is most likely to result in no deal Brexit.
  • kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):

    "Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
    As has been said, downthread
    Donny43 said:

    Scott_P said:
    This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.
    Yet to see anyone refute this.
    The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.

    So the real result was never enacted.
    Or alternatively, the 2016 leadership election was an establishment stitch up.

    Which is precisely what a second referendum would be portrayed as.
    Oh no, that's not going to wash:

    Tory MPs overwhelmingly voted for a new leader in July 2016; two years later, according to the ERG, it's ok to have another vote.

    The UK public narrowly voted to leave the EU in June 2016; two years later, according to the ERG, it's not ok to have another vote.

    Hypocrisy of the highest order!
    Should we have a referendum about whether to be in the EU or not every three years?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....

    How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?

    'twas ever thus
    With an ultra-safe seat, Paterson could ignore constituents and spend 100% of his time plotting and appearing on TV. The delights of rotten boroughs ...
    Was a dachshound called "Colin" involved? :D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    That's why I'd expect a general election in January or February is highly likely now?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....

    How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?

    You want to see the folks doing the selecting...
    All teeth, no chin?
  • She may be saving that pledge for the scenario where she wins narrowly.
  • Faisal Islam confirms 127 support TM
  • Pulpstar said:

    Norm said:

    If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.

    Can they at this point ?
    Maybe we should refer it to the ECJ to decide
  • OortOort Posts: 96
    edited December 2018
    Current Betfair prices for when Theresa May is replaced as Tory leader:
    before end of 2018: 4.9
    Jan-Mar 2019: 3.55
    So the market says it's odds-on there won't be a new leader before April Fool's Day. This market is a fool.

    I agree that winning by 1 is not enough for TMay.

    But is 80 rebels survivable?

    Probably not. But a three-figure number against her, which is what she is likely to get, certainly isn't. She has "I'm going down" written all over her.
  • I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....

    How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?

    'twas ever thus
    There is such a deficit of insight, intelligence and strategic thinking among too many of our MPs (of all views and parties). Most of them seem to spend their lives inhaling the latest rant or think-piece from the Express or Guardian, titbits from Shipman's Twitter feed and "What I Reckon" conversations with their association chair/parliamentary colleagues, then repeating it as long-held principle or tablets from the gods. People like Rees-Mogg and Dorries (but also half the shadow cabinet), say it on TV with confidence, a bit of bombast and sufficient simplicity that many uncritical viewers seem to be fooled.

    It creates such an incestuous and ever-decreasing circle of wisdom and insight. The columnists and bar-room bores who pump it out are only interested in being relevant for the next 24 hours - at a push. The 650 people we elect as MPs are meant to take a longer view and run the bloody country in all our best interests. Take in all these sources of information (and God forbid some actual facts and stuff) and mould a coherent and long-term view of what the country needs. We should expect more than rehashed gobbets of "stuff a mate in banking once told me over dinner".

    Roy Jenkins or Patrick Mayhew would have wiped the floor with all of them.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705

    Thatcher won the VONC but still had to step down because the Cabinet told her she could not continue with so many MPs against her.
    Not this time. ERG have been plain stupid doing this now
    Sneaking suspicion TM's supporters may have popped the last letters in to trigger the contest.

    But no getting away from the fact that the ERG have shown themselves a completely incompetent set of idiots. Still, we can obviously have perfect faith in their chosen one leading us through 'the simplest deal in history'.
  • Thatcher won the VONC but still had to step down because the Cabinet told her she could not continue with so many MPs against her.
    Different rules.
  • Donny43Donny43 Posts: 634

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):

    "Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
    No, that's still a really really stupid point as explained upthread.
  • tlg86 said:

    Thatcher won the VONC but still had to step down because the Cabinet told her she could not continue with so many MPs against her.
    Not this time. ERG have been plain stupid doing this now
    It depends on what you think their motives are. I actually think keeping May in place is most likely to result in no deal Brexit.
    Not if the HoC takes control if her deal is voted down....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167

    https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/brexit-second-scottish-tory-mp-says-he-will-vote-against-pm-s-deal-1-4841769

    The mood in Scotland is enough is enough. Time to rest A50, gain some stability and prepare a better plan.

    The A50 plan is to seek remain, nothing more. A worthy goal, perhaps, but I don't buy this 'come back later' talk.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Whatever the result of today's vote, today is the day the Tories lost the next General Election.
  • Faisal Islam confirms 127 support TM

    In public, with no chance of being found out if they lie through their teeth if they give her a good kicking in the privacy of the ballot box.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    I agree that winning by 1 is not enough for TMay.

    But is 80 rebels survivable?

    Normally, no. But in this situation, easily.

    (In my opinion!)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    Fair play to her for being on record about it.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Not convinced Johnson will stand due to Tories saying they will resign whip if he is elected leader. Who will the Brexiteer candidate be? David Davies anyone?

    Counterpoint - Will seven Tories resign the whip if he wins ? Boris will undoubtedly have the DUP's backing in the house.
    Seven is a huge number to actively VONC a Tory Gov't even for Boris.
    An MP can resign the whip but still vote for the government in a No Confidence vote. That's almost certainly what would happen.

    The trouble with assuming that the DUP will support an alternative PM is that their red lines will clash with the same realities under the new PM as they do under Theresa May.
  • Desmond Swayne now asking publically the key question: can she lead us in another GE which could happen this Feb?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    edited December 2018

    She may be saving that pledge for the scenario where she wins narrowly.
    Once she wins narrowly she can carry on for at least a year. She's no quitter and will have no reason to quit.

    EDIT: She'll win by >200 to <99 anyway.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited December 2018


    But is 80 rebels survivable?

    Sure, that's basically the ERG plus various other very public malcontents. That's probably the floor for the rebel count.

    How about 100 though? 1/3 rebels? (105). John Major vs Redwood was 218-89 (70.8%) with multiple spoiled ballots - I'm struggling to see May reach that %
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Cyclefree said:

    Whatever the result of today's vote, today is the day the Tories lost the next General Election.

    Thanks for the reminder *tops up bet on Labour majority*
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Pulpstar said:

    Norm said:

    If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.

    Can they at this point ?
    Well given we can unilaterally revoke A50 revocation of a few letters should be possible ( -;
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167
    Norm said:

    If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.

    Doesnt vseem possible. Wouldn't want to annoy Brady either!
  • AndyJS said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Pulpstar said:

    183/81

    Source? Guardian has her at 100 in favour from half an hour ago based on twitter.

    If you put a crowdsourcing exercise up on the internet, people will attempt to fill it in based on best guesses. It’s a mix of trying to be helpful and Aspergers-like completism. Wikipedia has long suffered from this.

    That’s what’s happening with the crowdsourced ElectionMapsUK spreadsheet which is touting the 180/80ish numbers. It’s bullshit.
    About 85 Tory MPs have posted messages on Twitter in support of Theresa May. Not sure whether that counts as a lot or not a lot at this stage.
    85 applications for a government job - if May wins.

    But meaningless because it's a secret ballot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Not convinced Johnson will stand due to Tories saying they will resign whip if he is elected leader. Who will the Brexiteer candidate be? David Davies anyone?

    Counterpoint - Will seven Tories resign the whip if he wins ? Boris will undoubtedly have the DUP's backing in the house.
    Seven is a huge number to actively VONC a Tory Gov't even for Boris.
    An MP can resign the whip but still vote for the government in a No Confidence vote. That's almost certainly what would happen.

    The trouble with assuming that the DUP will support an alternative PM is that their red lines will clash with the same realities under the new PM as they do under Theresa May.
    Well exactly. It's why a GE is so likely now
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,705
    Cyclefree said:

    Whatever the result of today's vote, today is the day the Tories lost the next General Election.

    Far too early to say that @Cyclefree, much as I'd like it to happen.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Donny43 said:

    If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.

    Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.

    Can we say the same about Brexit?

    You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
    Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):

    "Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
    No, that's still a really really stupid point as explained upthread.
    Whether or not it's a really really stupid point according to your (or any PBer's) understanding of the facts isn't really the issue. The point is that the optics are terrible. Many people will only give it a cursory glance before concluding it looks like "one rule for us, another for the plebs".
  • The stock first PMQs question 'Will she list her official engagements for Wednesday 12th December' is rather amusing today!
  • Entertainingly the Secretary of State for International Trade sits on Andrew Neill and states that the deal will only get the backing of the Cabinet with significant changes - "but you voted for it" says Kuennsburg
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,742
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1072783638352355328?s=19

    Looks like rentouls friends think she survives.
  • She may be saving that pledge for the scenario where she wins narrowly.
    Yes. But I expect she'll already have made the pledge privately to some of her wannabe replacements.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167

    I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....

    How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?

    'twas ever thus
    There is such a deficit of insight, intelligence and strategic thinking among too many of our MPs (of all views and parties). Most of them seem to spend their lives inhaling the latest rant or think-piece from the Express or Guardian, titbits from Shipman's Twitter feed and "What I Reckon" conversations with their association chair/parliamentary colleagues, then repeating it as long-held principle or tablets from the gods. People like Rees-Mogg and Dorries (but also half the shadow cabinet), say it on TV with confidence, a bit of bombast and sufficient simplicity that many uncritical viewers seem to be fooled.

    It creates such an incestuous and ever-decreasing circle of wisdom and insight. The columnists and bar-room bores who pump it out are only interested in being relevant for the next 24 hours - at a push. The 650 people we elect as MPs are meant to take a longer view and run the bloody country in all our best interests. Take in all these sources of information (and God forbid some actual facts and stuff) and mould a coherent and long-term view of what the country needs. We should expect more than rehashed gobbets of "stuff a mate in banking once told me over dinner".

    Roy Jenkins or Patrick Mayhew would have wiped the floor with all of them.
    even as a bar room vote it's hard to argue against this.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Are we really sure we've got to 48 letters?
  • NEW THREAD

  • However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.

    So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,167

    Entertainingly the Secretary of State for International Trade sits on Andrew Neill and states that the deal will only get the backing of the Cabinet with significant changes - "but you voted for it" says Kuennsburg

    Theres a lot pf nonsense to go around.
  • OortOort Posts: 96
    edited December 2018
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Not convinced Johnson will stand due to Tories saying they will resign whip if he is elected leader. Who will the Brexiteer candidate be? David Davies anyone?

    Counterpoint - Will seven Tories resign the whip if he wins ? Boris will undoubtedly have the DUP's backing in the house.
    Seven is a huge number to actively VONC a Tory Gov't even for Boris.
    An MP can resign the whip but still vote for the government in a No Confidence vote. That's almost certainly what would happen.

    The trouble with assuming that the DUP will support an alternative PM is that their red lines will clash with the same realities under the new PM as they do under Theresa May.
    Well exactly. It's why a GE is so likely now
    How do you reason from one to the other? The "realities" have changed. May's proposed WA is now an ex-WA. So there isn't an "Irish Sea" red line. There may well be a "border" red line, but who told the DUP to back Brexit? Which is not to say that logic reigns in sash-land.
This discussion has been closed.