Listening to R5 this morning driving to Inverness the majority view was what the hell are they doing now? There was the odd voice which claimed we would never get an acceptable deal with May but they were very much in the minority. With the BBC you never know how representative that is but we were regularly being assured this reflected the weight of texts emails and messages.
If I was a Tory MP today I would be very annoyed that the vote was now and I would have no choice but to back May with gritted teeth.
I always laugh at the messages and tweets - they always have one from a ‘lifelong conservative voter’ who will never vot for them again. Never mind that most people on Twitter are left leaning
I listen to Radio 5 every morning, unless they are playing games there really does seem to be a significant level of support for May amongst the listeners, even if it is reluctant. And there certainly is very little belief that anyone else can produce a substantially better deal.
I think if push came to shove the general public would support the deal. The problem is that May knowing the views of the DUP and with a minority government has brought back a deal that cannot garner the support of the conservative / DUP block. Therefore it won’t get through Parliament unless opposition parties vote in the national interest with their conscience which they won’t. The thing I cannot understand is that the EU must know this, they won’t give a deal that will get through the house, but expect her to do it!
I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....
How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?
The Tory party has become a cult, selections are won by those who express the most fervent belief, and (as with all cults) these tend to be blinkered and obsessive individuals unable to make balanced judgments or adapt their beliefs to changing circumstances.
I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....
How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?
The Tory party has become a cult, selections are won by those who express the most fervent belief, and (as with all cults) these tend to be blinkered and obsessive individuals unable to make balanced judgments or adapt their beliefs to changing circumstances.
Conviction politicians can be effective. eg Thatcher.
If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.
If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.
If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.
If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.
If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
Can we say the same about Brexit?
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):
"Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
This is absolutely the dumbest response possible. The analogy he is attempting to draw fails because the result of the 2016 leadership election was implemented.
Yet to see anyone refute this.
The process was flawed as it wasn’t taken to the members.
So the real result was never enacted.
Or alternatively, the 2016 leadership election was an establishment stitch up.
Which is precisely what a second referendum would be portrayed as.
Oh no, that's not going to wash:
Tory MPs overwhelmingly voted for a new leader in July 2016; two years later, according to the ERG, it's ok to have another vote.
The UK public narrowly voted to leave the EU in June 2016; two years later, according to the ERG, it's not ok to have another vote.
Hypocrisy of the highest order!
Should we have a referendum about whether to be in the EU or not every three years?
I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....
How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?
'twas ever thus
With an ultra-safe seat, Paterson could ignore constituents and spend 100% of his time plotting and appearing on TV. The delights of rotten boroughs ...
I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....
How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?
If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.
Current Betfair prices for when Theresa May is replaced as Tory leader: before end of 2018: 4.9 Jan-Mar 2019: 3.55 So the market says it's odds-on there won't be a new leader before April Fool's Day. This market is a fool.
Probably not. But a three-figure number against her, which is what she is likely to get, certainly isn't. She has "I'm going down" written all over her.
I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....
How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?
'twas ever thus
There is such a deficit of insight, intelligence and strategic thinking among too many of our MPs (of all views and parties). Most of them seem to spend their lives inhaling the latest rant or think-piece from the Express or Guardian, titbits from Shipman's Twitter feed and "What I Reckon" conversations with their association chair/parliamentary colleagues, then repeating it as long-held principle or tablets from the gods. People like Rees-Mogg and Dorries (but also half the shadow cabinet), say it on TV with confidence, a bit of bombast and sufficient simplicity that many uncritical viewers seem to be fooled.
It creates such an incestuous and ever-decreasing circle of wisdom and insight. The columnists and bar-room bores who pump it out are only interested in being relevant for the next 24 hours - at a push. The 650 people we elect as MPs are meant to take a longer view and run the bloody country in all our best interests. Take in all these sources of information (and God forbid some actual facts and stuff) and mould a coherent and long-term view of what the country needs. We should expect more than rehashed gobbets of "stuff a mate in banking once told me over dinner".
Roy Jenkins or Patrick Mayhew would have wiped the floor with all of them.
Thatcher won the VONC but still had to step down because the Cabinet told her she could not continue with so many MPs against her.
Not this time. ERG have been plain stupid doing this now
Sneaking suspicion TM's supporters may have popped the last letters in to trigger the contest.
But no getting away from the fact that the ERG have shown themselves a completely incompetent set of idiots. Still, we can obviously have perfect faith in their chosen one leading us through 'the simplest deal in history'.
If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
Can we say the same about Brexit?
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):
"Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
No, that's still a really really stupid point as explained upthread.
Not convinced Johnson will stand due to Tories saying they will resign whip if he is elected leader. Who will the Brexiteer candidate be? David Davies anyone?
Counterpoint - Will seven Tories resign the whip if he wins ? Boris will undoubtedly have the DUP's backing in the house. Seven is a huge number to actively VONC a Tory Gov't even for Boris.
An MP can resign the whip but still vote for the government in a No Confidence vote. That's almost certainly what would happen.
The trouble with assuming that the DUP will support an alternative PM is that their red lines will clash with the same realities under the new PM as they do under Theresa May.
Sure, that's basically the ERG plus various other very public malcontents. That's probably the floor for the rebel count.
How about 100 though? 1/3 rebels? (105). John Major vs Redwood was 218-89 (70.8%) with multiple spoiled ballots - I'm struggling to see May reach that %
If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.
Can they at this point ?
Well given we can unilaterally revoke A50 revocation of a few letters should be possible ( -;
If it's possible I'd seriously suggest letters are retracted and the vote is pulled. It would be a humiliating climb down for TM's internal enemies but better that than be stuck with her after March.
Doesnt vseem possible. Wouldn't want to annoy Brady either!
Source? Guardian has her at 100 in favour from half an hour ago based on twitter.
If you put a crowdsourcing exercise up on the internet, people will attempt to fill it in based on best guesses. It’s a mix of trying to be helpful and Aspergers-like completism. Wikipedia has long suffered from this.
That’s what’s happening with the crowdsourced ElectionMapsUK spreadsheet which is touting the 180/80ish numbers. It’s bullshit.
About 85 Tory MPs have posted messages on Twitter in support of Theresa May. Not sure whether that counts as a lot or not a lot at this stage.
85 applications for a government job - if May wins.
Not convinced Johnson will stand due to Tories saying they will resign whip if he is elected leader. Who will the Brexiteer candidate be? David Davies anyone?
Counterpoint - Will seven Tories resign the whip if he wins ? Boris will undoubtedly have the DUP's backing in the house. Seven is a huge number to actively VONC a Tory Gov't even for Boris.
An MP can resign the whip but still vote for the government in a No Confidence vote. That's almost certainly what would happen.
The trouble with assuming that the DUP will support an alternative PM is that their red lines will clash with the same realities under the new PM as they do under Theresa May.
If there are more than 100 votes against May then the Cabinet will surely tell her to go.
Without Cabinet support May could surely not continue despite getting 200 votes.
Can we say the same about Brexit?
You won but it was too close so we’ll ignore the result.
Indeed. Good point made on 5Live an hour or so ago to an ERGer (can't remember who sorry):
"Why is it ok for the Tories to change your mind about Theresa May and have a 2nd vote but it's not ok for the electorate to have a 2nd vote on Brexit?"
No, that's still a really really stupid point as explained upthread.
Whether or not it's a really really stupid point according to your (or any PBer's) understanding of the facts isn't really the issue. The point is that the optics are terrible. Many people will only give it a cursory glance before concluding it looks like "one rule for us, another for the plebs".
Entertainingly the Secretary of State for International Trade sits on Andrew Neill and states that the deal will only get the backing of the Cabinet with significant changes - "but you voted for it" says Kuennsburg
I do not watch TV much, but this I have seen the Brexiteers queuing up on Sky and BBC news to dodge hard questions and blab out platitudes. Crispin Blunt is, IMO, a complete idiot and as for Owen Patterson....
How the hell did these lightweight, self-absorbed non-entities ever get through a selection process? Did nobody else turn up?
'twas ever thus
There is such a deficit of insight, intelligence and strategic thinking among too many of our MPs (of all views and parties). Most of them seem to spend their lives inhaling the latest rant or think-piece from the Express or Guardian, titbits from Shipman's Twitter feed and "What I Reckon" conversations with their association chair/parliamentary colleagues, then repeating it as long-held principle or tablets from the gods. People like Rees-Mogg and Dorries (but also half the shadow cabinet), say it on TV with confidence, a bit of bombast and sufficient simplicity that many uncritical viewers seem to be fooled.
It creates such an incestuous and ever-decreasing circle of wisdom and insight. The columnists and bar-room bores who pump it out are only interested in being relevant for the next 24 hours - at a push. The 650 people we elect as MPs are meant to take a longer view and run the bloody country in all our best interests. Take in all these sources of information (and God forbid some actual facts and stuff) and mould a coherent and long-term view of what the country needs. We should expect more than rehashed gobbets of "stuff a mate in banking once told me over dinner".
Roy Jenkins or Patrick Mayhew would have wiped the floor with all of them.
even as a bar room vote it's hard to argue against this.
However the vote goes tonight, it seems unlikely to improve the arithmetic with regards to her deal. The "prize" of winning the leadership challenge will be to have hardened the screaming anger of her backbenches determined not to vote for it or for her.
So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.
Entertainingly the Secretary of State for International Trade sits on Andrew Neill and states that the deal will only get the backing of the Cabinet with significant changes - "but you voted for it" says Kuennsburg
Not convinced Johnson will stand due to Tories saying they will resign whip if he is elected leader. Who will the Brexiteer candidate be? David Davies anyone?
Counterpoint - Will seven Tories resign the whip if he wins ? Boris will undoubtedly have the DUP's backing in the house. Seven is a huge number to actively VONC a Tory Gov't even for Boris.
An MP can resign the whip but still vote for the government in a No Confidence vote. That's almost certainly what would happen.
The trouble with assuming that the DUP will support an alternative PM is that their red lines will clash with the same realities under the new PM as they do under Theresa May.
Well exactly. It's why a GE is so likely now
How do you reason from one to the other? The "realities" have changed. May's proposed WA is now an ex-WA. So there isn't an "Irish Sea" red line. There may well be a "border" red line, but who told the DUP to back Brexit? Which is not to say that logic reigns in sash-land.
Comments
https://twitter.com/rbrharrison/status/1072815685569560576
He's correctly demolished his own suggestion.
But is 80 rebels survivable?
before end of 2018: 4.9
Jan-Mar 2019: 3.55
So the market says it's odds-on there won't be a new leader before April Fool's Day. This market is a fool. Probably not. But a three-figure number against her, which is what she is likely to get, certainly isn't. She has "I'm going down" written all over her.
It creates such an incestuous and ever-decreasing circle of wisdom and insight. The columnists and bar-room bores who pump it out are only interested in being relevant for the next 24 hours - at a push. The 650 people we elect as MPs are meant to take a longer view and run the bloody country in all our best interests. Take in all these sources of information (and God forbid some actual facts and stuff) and mould a coherent and long-term view of what the country needs. We should expect more than rehashed gobbets of "stuff a mate in banking once told me over dinner".
Roy Jenkins or Patrick Mayhew would have wiped the floor with all of them.
But no getting away from the fact that the ERG have shown themselves a completely incompetent set of idiots. Still, we can obviously have perfect faith in their chosen one leading us through 'the simplest deal in history'.
(In my opinion!)
The trouble with assuming that the DUP will support an alternative PM is that their red lines will clash with the same realities under the new PM as they do under Theresa May.
EDIT: She'll win by >200 to <99 anyway.
How about 100 though? 1/3 rebels? (105). John Major vs Redwood was 218-89 (70.8%) with multiple spoiled ballots - I'm struggling to see May reach that %
But meaningless because it's a secret ballot.
Looks like rentouls friends think she survives.
NEW THREAD
So forget the "she's safe for a year" bit - she won't be able to command the confidence of the House on this the only issue of import.