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That will be the next irony. MPs will back May to avoid kicking the can and she'll then have to give it a good punt.RochdalePioneers said:
It's already absolutely clear that the deal will not pass the Commons. It was to be defeated so heavily that she pulled it because frit. Think how much support it would get having had her cling on in a shouty confidence vote in her frit non-leadership.Donny43 said:
She's right.RochdalePioneers said:And it's still "my deal is the only deal"
The Commons has to vote for that deal, or vote to overturn the referendum result, or accept that we leave with no withdrawal agreement.
The deal is dead. The referendum cannot be delivered without crash Brexit which MPs also will not allow. Which means at the very least kicking the A50 can down the road...0 -
Mrs May's problem has always been that she trusts the EU. Being a Remainer is no excuse for that - she didn't even sup with them and use a long spoon. Forming gangs is what they do, and though they would usually be twenty seven ferrets in a sack, they will unite against an outside enemy.
That on its own is a good reason to leave. Dashing round Europe hoping for comradely help was silly. Just as silly as Labour claiming they good get a better negotiation - the politicians know this and are knowingly lying. I exempt Jezza from this criticism because he is terminally stupid. Remember this is 'The Godfather' territory, don't trust anyone.0 -
Now 1/4 she'll win. Still value.dr_spyn said:0 -
May may have miscalculated by emphasising the risks of delay. That might have pulled in soft and hard remainers with the ERG.
The fact that we're at an extremely dangerous juncture doesn't mean that it's also not a complex one. Delay doesn't just represent chaos and disintegration, it also represents possible postponement and escape.0 -
She won’t do that.mr-claypole said:So when no 10 look at today's electorate who do they make promises to - the ERG or the remainers. Her best bet is to offer BINO. Also how can Corbyn wriggle out of his VONC now?
Despite what a lot of Remainers think, there is little appetite in the Tory party for Remain.0 -
She will rise from her sick bed if Corbyn tabled a vote of no confidence.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Fox and Mordaunt both saying they’ll support May. The vote is unlikely to be as a close as BBC are saying if that is the case although numbers voting against her could still easily be big enough to persuade her to resign.
Duncan doing his predictable “there is no alternative” won’t win over any admirers or supporters.0 -
hilarious!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It's not what can she do to them, it's what would she be left with no option but to do faced with their stubborn refusal to pass her bill and the need to offer concessions to Sturgeon and Cable. Any uncharacteristic feeling of petty revenge at seeing the looks on their stupid etonian faces as their precious baby brexit was drowned in the bathtub of their own tears would be purely coincidental.kle4 said:
They still block her deal. What can she do to them?Gallowgate said:So what do the ERG do if May wins?
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Why do Tory Leavers hate the will of the people.
The country elected Theresa May as PM last year.0 -
Sure. The divisions in the Tory Party and its general level of political ineptitude are Europe's fault.CD13 said:Mrs May's problem has always been that she trusts the EU. Being a Remainer is no excuse for that - she didn't even sup with them and use a long spoon. Forming gangs is what they do, and though they would usually be twenty seven ferrets in a sack, they will unite against an outside enemy.
That on its own is a good reason to leave. Dashing round Europe hoping for comradely help was silly. Just as silly as Labour claiming they good get a better negotiation - the politicians know this and are knowingly lying. I exempt Jezza from this criticism because he is terminally stupid. Remember this is 'The Godfather' territory, don't trust anyone.0 -
Operation trash Boris on the airwaves0
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Frothy Tory members is hardly newsnotme said:
I disagree. If and it’s a big if, the EU were willing to be flexible and agree side deals on a host of regulatory matters and grandfather us in to existing regulatory agreements we are party to. That could be done very easily. But they’ve made it fairly clear so far, that we need to own Brexit. It’s wa or no deal. I would expect them to relent on some things.Scott_P said:
I have party members who are frothing at the mouth for a no deal.0 -
Looks carefully worded to me.HYUFD said:Leadsom backs May
https://mobile.twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/10727748908797050880 -
Hardly any in the national membership, quite a lot in the parliamentary party. Hence why the party may split.Mortimer said:
She won’t do that.mr-claypole said:So when no 10 look at today's electorate who do they make promises to - the ERG or the remainers. Her best bet is to offer BINO. Also how can Corbyn wriggle out of his VONC now?
Despite what a lot of Remainers think, there is little appetite in the Tory party for Remain.0 -
There isn't going to be much appetite amongst remainers for the Tory party then.Mortimer said:
She won’t do that.mr-claypole said:So when no 10 look at today's electorate who do they make promises to - the ERG or the remainers. Her best bet is to offer BINO. Also how can Corbyn wriggle out of his VONC now?
Despite what a lot of Remainers think, there is little appetite in the Tory party for Remain.0 -
It’s fascinating to read the comments under the mp’s original tweet. Tons of “solidarity” comments from people with jc4pm etc in their bio. If you are one of the tribe, you can do no wrong, no objectively unacceptable behaviour can be condemned. She’s clearly the victim in all this.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
No they didn't. The country elected 650 MP's. It did not elect the PMTheScreamingEagles said:Why do Tory Leavers hate the will of the people.
The country elected Theresa May as PM last year.0 -
164 MPs.YellowSubmarine said:
Personally I'm hoping she wins with 52%.kle4 said:
Funny if the vote would hinge on how the suspended Tories would have voted.YellowSubmarine said:
No. He isn't a Conservative MP.tlg86 said:Does Bercow get to vote in this?
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Based on her statement May will stay even if she wins by just 1 voteAmpfieldAndy said:Fox and Mordaunt both saying they’ll support May. The vote is unlikely to be as a close as BBC are saying if that is the case although numbers voting against her could still easily be big enough to persuade her to resign.
Duncan doing his predictable “there is no alternative” won’t win over any admirers or supporters.0 -
I think I've found someone who trumps Owen Patterson.
I give you Andrea Jenkyns! What a piece of work0 -
If MPs decide to keep her, by not voting tonight to get rid, they are also gambling with their seats that there wont be a GE in next 12 months. She will be leader for the full year and no one in party can challenge her.0
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There are Tory extremists on both sides of the Brexit debate, including Soubry, Rudd, Morgan, Grieve, Greening etc as well as some ERG members like Bone and Bridgen.IanB2 said:
The ones trying to keep the party on the centre ground are the only ones that care. The extremists are far more concerned about the EU than their are about their own government, and the real nutters are mostly in safe seats and personally don't care at all.AmpfieldAndy said:
Soubry and Rudd for two so they clearly don’t care about being re-elected.AndyJS said:Question: how many Tory MPs unexpectedly had their majorities cut to at the last election following Mrs May's inept campaign?
Somehow I doubt your view of who the Tory centrists are and mine will be the same, but Raab is certainly a centrist as are Mordaunt and Cox of the Leave supporters and a Leaver must surely succeed May.0 -
Well here we go. Was always going to happen once the Parliament vote got pulled rather than letting the defeat happen. Time for a new PM to go and call the bluff of the EU over the backstop, and step up the preparations for no deal.0
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In general terms, public endorsements aren't worth that much when it's a secret ballot.AmpfieldAndy said:Fox and Mordaunt both saying they’ll support May. The vote is unlikely to be as a close as BBC are saying if that is the case although numbers voting against her could still easily be big enough to persuade her to resign.
Duncan doing his predictable “there is no alternative” won’t win over any admirers or supporters.0 -
Mr recidivist,
"Sure. The divisions in the Tory Party and its general level of political ineptitude are Europe's fault."
The Tory splits are down to their own idiocy. The EU marches to its own tune. The UK is quite well liked. The Dutch and Scandinavians are generally favourable, the Germans neutral, and the French need more persuading. The Italians don't give a toss as long as there's a vineyard nearby, and the rest don't matter.
The EU is what it is. Game of Thrones without so much violence.0 -
‘Quite a lot’ - maybe 35? It’s why Rudd/Hammond/Clarke don’t have a chance in a subsequent ballot...WhisperingOracle said:
Hardly any in the national membership, quite a lot in the parliamentary party. Hence why the party may split.Mortimer said:
She won’t do that.mr-claypole said:So when no 10 look at today's electorate who do they make promises to - the ERG or the remainers. Her best bet is to offer BINO. Also how can Corbyn wriggle out of his VONC now?
Despite what a lot of Remainers think, there is little appetite in the Tory party for Remain.0 -
Leaving party. Lewin will be there0
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Depends whether you think Fox and Mordaunt carry any influence and are acting in good faith I suppose.AndyJS said:
In general terms, public endorsements aren't worth that much when it's a secret ballot.AmpfieldAndy said:Fox and Mordaunt both saying they’ll support May. The vote is unlikely to be as a close as BBC are saying if that is the case although numbers voting against her could still easily be big enough to persuade her to resign.
Duncan doing his predictable “there is no alternative” won’t win over any admirers or supporters.0 -
If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.0
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HYUFD said:
Based on her statement May will stay even if she wins by just 1 voteAmpfieldAndy said:Fox and Mordaunt both saying they’ll support May. The vote is unlikely to be as a close as BBC are saying if that is the case although numbers voting against her could still easily be big enough to persuade her to resign.
Duncan doing his predictable “there is no alternative” won’t win over any admirers or supporters.
I don’t doubt that is the impression she wants to create, but I don’t believe she would if that scenario actually transpired0 -
Didn't Maggie say she would fight on, just before she quit?HYUFD said:
Based on her statement May will stay even if she wins by just 1 voteAmpfieldAndy said:Fox and Mordaunt both saying they’ll support May. The vote is unlikely to be as a close as BBC are saying if that is the case although numbers voting against her could still easily be big enough to persuade her to resign.
Duncan doing his predictable “there is no alternative” won’t win over any admirers or supporters.
It is the standard words for the occasion.0 -
Do you think Nick Boles is voting for her, or plotting a Gove coronation?TheScreamingEagles said:If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/10727724838986629120 -
this is a vote for the soul of the Tory party. Mainstream vs Headbangers.TheScreamingEagles said:If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.
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Anyone who advocates Brexit is not a centrist. Not necessarily an extremist (as per Rees Mogg), but anyone that still advocates Brexit in the light of all the evidence that shows it to be highly damaging to the country is a zealot, and therefore can never be a centrist in the true sense. I suppose one could be a "centrist Brexiteer", in the same way as there were differing shades of opinion amongst Bolsheviks and Nazis.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are Tory extremists on both sides of the Brexit debate, including Soubry, Rudd, Morgan, Grieve, Greening etc as well as some ERG members like Bine and Bridgen.IanB2 said:
The ones trying to keep the party on the centre ground are the only ones that care. The extremists are far more concerned about the EU than their are about their own government, and the real nutters are mostly in safe seats and personally don't care at all.AmpfieldAndy said:
Soubry and Rudd for two so they clearly don’t care about being re-elected.AndyJS said:Question: how many Tory MPs unexpectedly had their majorities cut to at the last election following Mrs May's inept campaign?
Somehow I doubt your view of who the Tory centrists are and mine will be the same, but Raab is certainly a centrist as are Mordaunt and Cox of the Leave supporters and a Leaver must surely succeed May.0 -
When Raab or Johnson leads your party.TheScreamingEagles said:If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.
What then for you.0 -
I think a mistake is seeing this leadership contest as entirely about Brexit. You always have to think about the "what's in it for me?" factor as well.
For example, I am 100% sure Grayling and Fox will back May as they risk being reshuffled out by a successor.
On the other hand if you were Justine Greening, you might see it as a chance to get revenge and get back into cabinet.
One factor that hasn't been mentioned is how will this go down with the public. If the Cons pick a leader with more charisma they might get a boost but if they replace May with a man, it might go down badly with female voters.0 -
Some stuff on the process:
"If more than 50% of all Conservative MPs vote in support (158 MPs) of the Prime Minister, they can stay as party leader and no new vote can be triggered for 12 months. They remain as Prime Minister."
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/conservative-party-leadership-challenges0 -
That's the "hard remainers". There's a quieter, larger caucus of generally pro-business Tory MPs, who, while not Europhile in the old Clarke and Heseltine sense, would be quite happy with remain.Mortimer said:
‘Quite a lot’ - maybe 35? It’s why Rudd/Hammond/Clarke don’t have a chance in a subsequent ballot...WhisperingOracle said:
Hardly any in the national membership, quite a lot in the parliamentary party. Hence why the party may split.Mortimer said:
She won’t do that.mr-claypole said:So when no 10 look at today's electorate who do they make promises to - the ERG or the remainers. Her best bet is to offer BINO. Also how can Corbyn wriggle out of his VONC now?
Despite what a lot of Remainers think, there is little appetite in the Tory party for Remain.0 -
Total bollocksWhisperingOracle said:
Hardly any in the national membership, quite a lot in the parliamentary party. Hence why the party may split.Mortimer said:
She won’t do that.mr-claypole said:So when no 10 look at today's electorate who do they make promises to - the ERG or the remainers. Her best bet is to offer BINO. Also how can Corbyn wriggle out of his VONC now?
Despite what a lot of Remainers think, there is little appetite in the Tory party for Remain.0 -
ahhaahahahahahah. you think a no-dealer new leader will let Greening back in???GarethoftheVale2 said:I think a mistake is seeing this leadership contest as entirely about Brexit. You always have to think about the "what's in it for me?" factor as well.
On the other hand if you were Justine Greening, you might see it as a chance to get revenge and get back into cabinet.
.0 -
May has a gun to the country’s head and the ERG has a gun to her head.
Let’s hope this doesn’t end like Reservoir Dogs.0 -
Look at it the other way; the ERG have seriously pissed off their colleagues over recent weeks, and a derisory score against May would isolate them and make them look more ridiculous. And shut them up, on the leadership at least, for a year. It would also puncture the no deal balloon, with most Tory MPs opposed to no deal.0
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Frankly, that analogy could only have been thought up by an extremist which is what I must suppose you are.Nigel_Foremain said:
Anyone who advocates Brexit is not a centrist. Not necessarily an extremist (as per Rees Mogg), but anyone that still advocates Brexit in the light of all the evidence that shows it to be highly damaging to the country is a zealot, and therefore can never be a centrist in the true sense. I suppose one could be a "centrist Brexiteer", in the same way as there were differing shades of opinion amongst Bolsheviks and Nazis.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are Tory extremists on both sides of the Brexit debate, including Soubry, Rudd, Morgan, Grieve, Greening etc as well as some ERG members like Bine and Bridgen.IanB2 said:
The ones trying to keep the party on the centre ground are the only ones that care. The extremists are far more concerned about the EU than their are about their own government, and the real nutters are mostly in safe seats and personally don't care at all.AmpfieldAndy said:
Soubry and Rudd for two so they clearly don’t care about being re-elected.AndyJS said:Question: how many Tory MPs unexpectedly had their majorities cut to at the last election following Mrs May's inept campaign?
Somehow I doubt your view of who the Tory centrists are and mine will be the same, but Raab is certainly a centrist as are Mordaunt and Cox of the Leave supporters and a Leaver must surely succeed May.0 -
If they get rid of May I suspect the clamour in the country to get rid of this vile Tory administration will be overwhelming. She is single handedly giving her party a human face.YellowSubmarine said:So we have 4 key dynamics: #1 Vote May to prevent utter chaos #2 Vote against May to save save the government from the DUP. #3 Should Uber Remainers vote against May to kill Brexit ? #4 Do pragmatists vote against May to bring government into line with the Tory membership as they know May's deal will split the Tory Party assunder ?
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Never let it be said again that they are the patriotic party. The utter self-indulgence at such a time is a disgrace. That a party which claims to act in the national interest should think that the country should be left leaderless with barely 3 months to go to its departure from the EU and that the decision as to who should be PM should be left to ca. 100,000 people (if that) shows it to be utterly unfit for purpose.SouthamObserver said:The sheer selfishness of the Conservative party and its contempt for voters never ceases to amaze.
I feel sorry for decent conservatives like @Big_G_NorthWales and @Topping and @RichardNabavi. But, really, it's time for your party to fold up its tents and disappear into the night. And you can take the Labour Party with you while you're about it.
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I've noticed that too. "Managed No Deal" appears to be the Brexiteers' on message term. The significance, I think, is that they can pretend a "Managed No Deal" is strategy whereas "Chaotic No Deal", which is what it actually will be, is something bad that happens by default.Scott_P said:0 -
Evidence please.Nigel_Foremain said:
Total bollocksWhisperingOracle said:
Hardly any in the national membership, quite a lot in the parliamentary party. Hence why the party may split.Mortimer said:
She won’t do that.mr-claypole said:So when no 10 look at today's electorate who do they make promises to - the ERG or the remainers. Her best bet is to offer BINO. Also how can Corbyn wriggle out of his VONC now?
Despite what a lot of Remainers think, there is little appetite in the Tory party for Remain.0 -
Are there any female candidates likely to replace May?GarethoftheVale2 said:I think a mistake is seeing this leadership contest as entirely about Brexit. You always have to think about the "what's in it for me?" factor as well.
For example, I am 100% sure Grayling and Fox will back May as they risk being reshuffled out by a successor.
On the other hand if you were Justine Greening, you might see it as a chance to get revenge and get back into cabinet.
One factor that hasn't been mentioned is how will this go down with the public. If the Cons pick a leader with more charisma they might get a boost but if they replace May with a man, it might go down badly with female voters.0 -
Lots of fantastic sophistry on display from so many of these Tory tweets. Unless they say "I am voting for the Prime Minister" then you cannot place them into her column with any confidence. The challenge may be grossly irresponsible, but that doesnt mean that now its here he will back her.williamglenn said:
Do you think Nick Boles is voting for her, or plotting a Gove coronation?TheScreamingEagles said:If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1072772483898662912
The question Tory MPs need to consider is this: how likely is there going to be a General Election in the next 12 months? If they think it likely then a Vote of Confidence in May is a Vote to be defeated in the General Election to come0 -
Barely. Leave barely won in 2016, and your gang don't accept that as "The will of the People"!TheScreamingEagles said:Why do Tory Leavers hate the will of the people.
The country elected Theresa May as PM last year.0 -
As I’m sure does everyone on the payroll - in public.HYUFD said:Leadsom backs May
https://mobile.twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1072774890879705088
In private, when presented tonight with a ballot paper on the other hand...0 -
The way things are going, by tonight we will have had 300-odd tweets of support for May from MPs.
So she should win by even more than the 48 who wrote letters.
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Those that bang on about the "will-o-the-people" are the same ones that are terrified that it is not tested again now that the plebs have got hold of a better understanding of the implications of their lunacyTheScreamingEagles said:Why do Tory Leavers hate the will of the people.
The country elected Theresa May as PM last year.0 -
Rudd might stand. There were rumours of a Rudd-Gove leadership ticket though not sure in what order.AndyJS said:
Are there any female candidates likely to replace May?GarethoftheVale2 said:I think a mistake is seeing this leadership contest as entirely about Brexit. You always have to think about the "what's in it for me?" factor as well.
For example, I am 100% sure Grayling and Fox will back May as they risk being reshuffled out by a successor.
On the other hand if you were Justine Greening, you might see it as a chance to get revenge and get back into cabinet.
One factor that hasn't been mentioned is how will this go down with the public. If the Cons pick a leader with more charisma they might get a boost but if they replace May with a man, it might go down badly with female voters.0 -
Err, that's the point.twistedfirestopper3 said:
Barely. Leave barely won in 2016, and your gang don't accept that as "The will of the People"!TheScreamingEagles said:Why do Tory Leavers hate the will of the people.
The country elected Theresa May as PM last year.0 -
Bolsheviks and Nazis advocated and used violence against their opponents. I believe we have to be careful using them in analogies with the Brexit issue - we risk allowing people to think that the use of violence here will be thinkable or necessary or ok. It isn’t.Nigel_Foremain said:
Anyone who advocates Brexit is not a centrist. Not necessarily an extremist (as per Rees Mogg), but anyone that still advocates Brexit in the light of all the evidence that shows it to be highly damaging to the country is a zealot, and therefore can never be a centrist in the true sense. I suppose one could be a "centrist Brexiteer", in the same way as there were differing shades of opinion amongst Bolsheviks and Nazis.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are Tory extremists on both sides of the Brexit debate, including Soubry, Rudd, Morgan, Grieve, Greening etc as well as some ERG members like Bine and Bridgen.IanB2 said:
The ones trying to keep the party on the centre ground are the only ones that care. The extremists are far more concerned about the EU than their are about their own government, and the real nutters are mostly in safe seats and personally don't care at all.AmpfieldAndy said:
Soubry and Rudd for two so they clearly don’t care about being re-elected.AndyJS said:Question: how many Tory MPs unexpectedly had their majorities cut to at the last election following Mrs May's inept campaign?
Somehow I doubt your view of who the Tory centrists are and mine will be the same, but Raab is certainly a centrist as are Mordaunt and Cox of the Leave supporters and a Leaver must surely succeed May.0 -
Lol @ the Tories making it to three female leaders before Labour gets to one.GarethoftheVale2 said:
Rudd might stand. There were rumours of a Rudd-Gove leadership ticket though not sure in what order.AndyJS said:
Are there any female candidates likely to replace May?GarethoftheVale2 said:I think a mistake is seeing this leadership contest as entirely about Brexit. You always have to think about the "what's in it for me?" factor as well.
For example, I am 100% sure Grayling and Fox will back May as they risk being reshuffled out by a successor.
On the other hand if you were Justine Greening, you might see it as a chance to get revenge and get back into cabinet.
One factor that hasn't been mentioned is how will this go down with the public. If the Cons pick a leader with more charisma they might get a boost but if they replace May with a man, it might go down badly with female voters.0 -
Anybody who thinks they can safely discard a democratic vote is also not a centrist.Nigel_Foremain said:
Anyone who advocates Brexit is not a centrist. Not necessarily an extremist (as per Rees Mogg), but anyone that still advocates Brexit in the light of all the evidence that shows it to be highly damaging to the country is a zealot, and therefore can never be a centrist in the true sense. I suppose one could be a "centrist Brexiteer", in the same way as there were differing shades of opinion amongst Bolsheviks and Nazis.AmpfieldAndy said:
There are Tory extremists on both sides of the Brexit debate, including Soubry, Rudd, Morgan, Grieve, Greening etc as well as some ERG members like Bine and Bridgen.IanB2 said:
The ones trying to keep the party on the centre ground are the only ones that care. The extremists are far more concerned about the EU than their are about their own government, and the real nutters are mostly in safe seats and personally don't care at all.AmpfieldAndy said:
Soubry and Rudd for two so they clearly don’t care about being re-elected.AndyJS said:Question: how many Tory MPs unexpectedly had their majorities cut to at the last election following Mrs May's inept campaign?
Somehow I doubt your view of who the Tory centrists are and mine will be the same, but Raab is certainly a centrist as are Mordaunt and Cox of the Leave supporters and a Leaver must surely succeed May.0 -
Hostage to fortune time again..........
The timing of this challenge by the ERG is staggeringly, awfully bad. Noone thinks her renegotiations have much chance but to try and knife her right now is awful timing. They'd have been better to wait till her renegotiations came back fruitless and the meaningful vote failed.
The ERG will be routed.0 -
Taking his association chair with him among the local members maybe?williamglenn said:
Do you think Nick Boles is voting for her, or plotting a Gove coronation?TheScreamingEagles said:If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/10727724838986629120 -
Both. She can win and still lose tonight.williamglenn said:
Do you think Nick Boles is voting for her, or plotting a Gove coronation?TheScreamingEagles said:If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/10727724838986629120 -
bigjohnowls said:
When Raab or Johnson leads your party.TheScreamingEagles said:If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.
What then for you.
I’ll be inside the tent, pissing in.0 -
I'm not sure about that, I think she takes 160 ayes as a mandate. She does not do quitting !TheScreamingEagles said:
Both. She can win and still lose tonight.williamglenn said:
Do you think Nick Boles is voting for her, or plotting a Gove coronation?TheScreamingEagles said:If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/10727724838986629120 -
Don't be silly.YellowSubmarine said:
Personally I'm hoping she wins with 52%.kle4 said:
Funny if the vote would hinge on how the suspended Tories would have voted.YellowSubmarine said:
No. He isn't a Conservative MP.tlg86 said:Does Bercow get to vote in this?
I'm hoping she wins with 37%, with lots of abstentions.0 -
Slackbladder said:
this is a vote for the soul of the Tory party. Mainstream vs Headbangers.TheScreamingEagles said:If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.
That vote was in 2016 when you voted Leave.0 -
If 10 Tories put their name forward to replace May, it could require 8 separate contests to whittle it down to the final 2.0
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I'll say this for May: although she pointlessly chickened out of the MV she is now leading to something sorely needed, being no escape from a tough choice. Politicians hate being pinned down, having to make clear decisions and will always seek other options even if they don't exist. She's no different there, but v shortly all of them will need to make a choice, with no way around it. For the best0
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2/5 fav on BF that May wins this vote.
Does that feel right?0 -
Yes, its amazingly insular - they don't give a damn about anyone or anything else. Destroying the Tories in front of our eyes.Pulpstar said:Hostage to fortune time again..........
The timing of this challenge by the ERG is staggeringly, awfully bad. Noone thinks her renegotiations have much chance but to try and knife her right now is awful timing. They'd have been better to wait till her renegotiations came back fruitless and the meaningful vote failed.
The ERG will be routed.0 -
And the mainstream won.TheScreamingEagles said:Slackbladder said:
this is a vote for the soul of the Tory party. Mainstream vs Headbangers.TheScreamingEagles said:If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.
That vote was in 2016 when you voted Leave.0 -
Yes. Professing loyalty is standard in these situations. Just like when the board issues a public statement backing the manager at a football club.Sandpit said:
As I’m sure does everyone on the payroll - in public.HYUFD said:Leadsom backs May
https://mobile.twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1072774890879705088
In private, when presented tonight with a ballot paper on the other hand...0 -
She could win with less than 50% with a lot of abstentions.Pulpstar said:
I'm not sure about that, I think she takes 160 ayes as a mandate. She does not do quitting !TheScreamingEagles said:
Both. She can win and still lose tonight.williamglenn said:
Do you think Nick Boles is voting for her, or plotting a Gove coronation?TheScreamingEagles said:If I were a Tory MP I’d be backing her in tonight’s vote.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/10727724838986629120 -
AgreedPulpstar said:Hostage to fortune time again..........
The timing of this challenge by the ERG is staggeringly, awfully bad. Noone thinks her renegotiations have much chance but to try and knife her right now is awful timing. They'd have been better to wait till her renegotiations came back fruitless and the meaningful vote failed.
The ERG will be routed.0 -
I'm against the money on this. What positive reason does an MP have to vote for her right now?kinabalu said:2/5 fav on BF that May wins this vote.
Does that feel right?0 -
Possibly Leadsom again, or maybe the Remainers gather round Rudd or Morgan?AndyJS said:
Are there any female candidates likely to replace May?GarethoftheVale2 said:I think a mistake is seeing this leadership contest as entirely about Brexit. You always have to think about the "what's in it for me?" factor as well.
For example, I am 100% sure Grayling and Fox will back May as they risk being reshuffled out by a successor.
On the other hand if you were Justine Greening, you might see it as a chance to get revenge and get back into cabinet.
One factor that hasn't been mentioned is how will this go down with the public. If the Cons pick a leader with more charisma they might get a boost but if they replace May with a man, it might go down badly with female voters.0 -
It’s a challenge for the future direction of the country; it doesn’t get more patriotic than that. May’s deal gives Britain nothing and we’ve already rejected being part of a United States of Europe.Cyclefree said:
Never let it be said again that they are the patriotic party. The utter self-indulgence at such a time is a disgrace. That a party which claims to act in the national interest should think that the country should be left leaderless with barely 3 months to go to its departure from the EU and that the decision as to who should be PM should be left to ca. 100,000 people (if that) shows it to be utterly unfit for purpose.SouthamObserver said:The sheer selfishness of the Conservative party and its contempt for voters never ceases to amaze.
I feel sorry for decent conservatives like @Big_G_NorthWales and @Topping and @RichardNabavi. But, really, it's time for your party to fold up its tents and disappear into the night. And you can take the Labour Party with you while you're about it.
If May had tried to negotiate a FTA and made her £ 39bn conditional upon that, she wouldn’t be in this position of having sold out the country and put her leadership at risk. No deal is not desirable but it’s a lot better than May’s deal.0 -
Result to be announced 9pm0
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Does anyone know who the No.10 staff member in the green top who was setting up the podium is?0
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Ha !AlastairMeeks said:
Don't be silly.YellowSubmarine said:
Personally I'm hoping she wins with 52%.kle4 said:
Funny if the vote would hinge on how the suspended Tories would have voted.YellowSubmarine said:
No. He isn't a Conservative MP.tlg86 said:Does Bercow get to vote in this?
I'm hoping she wins with 37%, with lots of abstentions.0 -
Morning all
Well, as might be expected, all the "loyalists" are rallying round tweeting their unfettered support but that's what happened in 1990 until, of course, everyone got to the secrecy of the ballot box when it wasn't quite so clear cut. Back then, based on the noises of support, you'd have supposed would have got 250-300 MPs backing her which of course didn't happen.
May will win tonight - of that I've no doubt. The question is how well or badly she will win. Irrespective of the combative noises, the truth is if a significant minority of the Parliamentary Conservative Party fail to support her (including abstentions) her authority and credibility will be broken.
She has to say she'll fight on - short of resigning before the vote, what else can she do? The payroll have to support her which gets her 120 or so straight away.
My view has always been she needs a minimum of 200 MPs supporting her to continue in any credible form even if the rules say she wins with 158 or 160 or whatever.
I think tonight she'll get around 220-230 which will mean 80-90 MPs won't support her (some of those may abstain). There'll be a few hours of euphoria among the Conservative loyalists and then tomorrow morning the realisation will dawn nothing has changed except another option has been closed off.0 -
A small reminder …
We had a people's vote in 2016 and Leave won. I'm sure you must remember - it was all over the media. The day after, the sore losers began complaining. Amongst their many moans was the classic 'It should be left to Parliament, the people don't understand joined-up writing."
What they meant was "A people's vote is fine only as long as it gives the decision we like.".
Democracy can be a pain in the arse at times, but ignoring it is asking for an enema.0 -
What renegotiations? The EU and Merkel told her there was no chance of a renegotiation.Pulpstar said:Hostage to fortune time again..........
The timing of this challenge by the ERG is staggeringly, awfully bad. Noone thinks her renegotiations have much chance but to try and knife her right now is awful timing. They'd have been better to wait till her renegotiations came back fruitless and the meaningful vote failed.
The ERG will be routed.
They need someone new to try a different strategy because hers is going nowhere.0 -
Why positive? Is Boris not enough of a reason?AlastairMeeks said:
I'm against the money on this. What positive reason does an MP have to vote for her right now?kinabalu said:2/5 fav on BF that May wins this vote.
Does that feel right?0 -
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Is Craig Mackinlay entitled to vote tonight?0
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I hope she wins, but similarly have few expectations that she will.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm against the money on this. What positive reason does an MP have to vote for her right now?kinabalu said:2/5 fav on BF that May wins this vote.
Does that feel right?0 -
I suspect 'David from North Yorkshire' is not unrepresentative of a large swath of public opinion.
BBC Radio 5 live is asking listeners if they are 'backing Theresa May?'
David in North Yorkshire says: "I'm over the edge. This is just getting beyond a joke. The ramifications of this for me personally are that I now can't vote Conservative in the future because I can never forgive them for doing this.
"And I don’t want to vote Labour either.
"So I’m now done with politics and politicians. I’m bereft, I’m a political orphan, I can’t vote for anyone.
"The damage that these guys and girls are doing to this country is horrendous."0 -
"Managed No Deal" means no overall Withdrawal Agreement but lots of mini deals on the non-contentious things.FF43 said:
I've noticed that too. "Managed No Deal" appears to be the Brexiteers' on message term. The significance, I think, is that they can pretend a "Managed No Deal" is strategy whereas "Chaotic No Deal", which is what it actually will be, is something bad that happens by default.Scott_P said:0 -
We had a general election in 2017 in which over 50% of voters backed parties opposed to a No Deal Brexit. Does that will of the people count?CD13 said:A small reminder …
We had a people's vote in 2016 and Leave won. I'm sure you must remember - it was all over the media. The day after, the sore losers began complaining. Amongst their many moans was the classic 'It should be left to Parliament, the people don't understand joined-up writing."
What they meant was "A people's vote is fine only as long as it gives the decision we like.".
Democracy can be a pain in the arse at times, but ignoring it is asking for an enema.
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LOL yes, the Chairman and the Board always have every confidence in the manager - 24 hours before he gets fired!Foxy said:
Yes. Professing loyalty is standard in these situations. Just like when the board issues a public statement backing the manager at a football club.Sandpit said:
As I’m sure does everyone on the payroll - in public.HYUFD said:Leadsom backs May
https://mobile.twitter.com/andrealeadsom/status/1072774890879705088
In private, when presented tonight with a ballot paper on the other hand...0 -
Line from the headbangers
No cabinet minister who supports the PM today should put their name forward in any subsequent leadership contest0 -
Stodge - sure "the "loyalists" are rallying round" but I think she`ll lose the vote. It is difficult for her to win because it is a secret ballot and this is crucial. Cabinet ministers can come out to say they support her but go on to vote against her. I`ve taken 5/2 with Ladbrokes (a price which I would say should be 4/5).0
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Pretty sure it's not up to them....Scott_P said:Line from the headbangers
No cabinet minister who supports the PM today should put their name forward in any subsequent leadership contest0 -
These are Tories we're taking about. You're not expecting the truth surely?AmpfieldAndy said:Fox and Mordaunt both saying they’ll support May. The vote is unlikely to be as a close as BBC are saying if that is the case although numbers voting against her could still easily be big enough to persuade her to resign.
Duncan doing his predictable “there is no alternative” won’t win over any admirers or supporters.0
