politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Good news for TMay: Montgomerie’s backing suggests that the de
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Wha...what?! This is an astounding outcome and in no way has a challenge been on the cards for yonks and threatened for about two yonks.Gallowgate said:0 -
Also, if there's a VONC, even if May wins it, it will send a clear message to the whips quite how deep in the red their current vote tally is.0
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THE ‘liberal elite’ consists of anyone who has read a book out of choice, Theresa May has confirmed.
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/liberal-elite-is-anyone-who-has-voluntarily-read-a-book-201610061149170 -
Remind me how the last show trial wentkle4 said:
Wha...what?! This is an astounding outcome and in no way has a challenge been on the cards for yonks and threatened for about two yonks.Gallowgate said:0 -
It's not far from Downing Street to the Commons, she could probably have sent a civil servant runner.grabcocque said:Remarkably, I imagine that the cabinet office has some kind of incredibly advanced communications technology to allow Theresa May, inside a room, to communicate with others, outside it.
I wonder what this near-magical technology might comprise.0 -
It's not Andrew Bridgen's resting pulse for sure.DavidL said:
Have they got to 47 yet?Gallowgate said:0 -
300 letters in by now, surely?Gallowgate said:0 -
It would really rather fun if May won a leadership VONC, but couldn't pass the bill. They would be stuck with her for a year.
The Tory party really is rubbish at govt. Worth bringing out this tonight...
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/5951123673584066560 -
BBC - vnoc likely tomorrow0
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Where's Michael Howard when you need him?murali_s said:
300 letters in by now, surely?Gallowgate said:0 -
These announcements keep saying ‘outside’ downing st.
I’m going to get very worried if the rostrum doesn’t have a logo on it...0 -
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That actually seems relatively plausible .Jonathan said:It would really rather fun if May won a leadership VONC, but couldn't pass the bill.
Not if it is this book surely?TheScreamingEagles said:THE ‘liberal elite’ consists of anyone who has read a book out of choice, Theresa May has confirmed.
https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/liberal-elite-is-anyone-who-has-voluntarily-read-a-book-20161006114917
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Why-Socialism-Works-Harrison-Lievesley/dp/1521531218/ref=la_B073HB3JXH_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1542219729&sr=1-10 -
The difference is, before today JRM was saying "don't do it", now JRM is saying "do it".
I don't know exactly how man Brexit Buccaneers he has at his beck and call, but I can easily imagine him getting to the magic number if he so wills it.0 -
I think that is going to be the key. The number of votes against is the number of votes that cannot be relied upon to get this through the Commons which is the number she has to try and find from somewhere else.grabcocque said:Also, if there's a VONC, even if May wins it, it will send a clear message to the whips quite how deep in the red their current vote tally is.
It's not boring, that's for sure.0 -
Well of course he can, the number was pretty high already apparently. It doesn't make his position not calling for it before now when all of his other words showed what he wanted required May gone any less stupid.grabcocque said:The difference is, before today JRM was saying "don't do it", now JRM is saying "do it".
I don't know exactly how man Brexit Buccaneers he has at his beck and call, but I can easily imagine him getting to the magic number if he so wills it.0 -
So she's almost certain to win pretty big the vonc then.DavidL said:
I think that is going to be the key. The number of votes against is the number of votes that cannot be relied upon to get this through the Commons which is the number she has to try and find from somewhere else.grabcocque said:Also, if there's a VONC, even if May wins it, it will send a clear message to the whips quite how deep in the red their current vote tally is.
It's not boring, that's for sure.0 -
Gah, I thought there might be at least one more scare for TM this year. If I'd been smarter I'd have taken some of the 10-20/1 available on 2018 for her to go and have an amazing trading bet.0
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George Osborne could send in a crate of Greggs pasties.MarqueeMark said:0 -
Won't it be at least 48 though, which is too many; unless....DavidL said:
I think that is going to be the key. The number of votes against is the number of votes that cannot be relied upon to get this through the Commons which is the number she has to try and find from somewhere else.grabcocque said:Also, if there's a VONC, even if May wins it, it will send a clear message to the whips quite how deep in the red their current vote tally is.
It's not boring, that's for sure.0 -
What takes precedence, a VONC inside the Tory Party or a statement to the HoC? If there is a VONC tomorrow will the statement be postponed? Surely it has to be. Its a statement by the PM and that might not be her.0
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Is there a viable caretaker Tory leader? I really can't think of anyone.
Hague (outside the Commons) would be an own goal of epic proportions.0 -
Please no VONC on Thursday/Friday/Saturday.
Am spending Friday watching the Crimes of Grindlewood and then Saturday going to Blackpool to be in the audience of Strictly.0 -
Jeremy Hunt, he's a PM in waiting.Jonathan said:Is there a viable caretaker Tory leader? I really can't think of anyone.
Hague (outside the Commons) would be an own goal of epic proportions.0 -
The oddest movement on Betfair is that Jeremy Corbyn is shortening all the time for next Prime Minister at exactly the time when it looks increasingly likely that the next Prime Minister will be a Conservative selected before the next election.0
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Well, there's not the best part of a million dead from a war they lied to get us into, nor any massive financial crises on their watch.Jonathan said:It would really rather fun if May won a leadership VONC, but couldn't pass the bill. They would be stuck with her for a year.
The Tory party really is rubbish at govt. Worth bringing out this tonight...
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/595112367358406656
To be fair, both will be lakes of calm compared to Hard Brexit Far Left Corbyn Britain.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Please no VONC on Thursday/Friday/Saturday.
Am spending Friday watching the Crimes of Grindlewood and then Saturday going to Blackpool to be in the audience of Strictly.
All of Friday, how long is that film?0 -
I agree but as others point out she can also lose at the same time if it becomes evident that she cannot get her deal through the Commons. It's a bit sub-optimal tbh.Pulpstar said:
So she's almost certain to win pretty big the vonc then.DavidL said:
I think that is going to be the key. The number of votes against is the number of votes that cannot be relied upon to get this through the Commons which is the number she has to try and find from somewhere else.grabcocque said:Also, if there's a VONC, even if May wins it, it will send a clear message to the whips quite how deep in the red their current vote tally is.
It's not boring, that's for sure.0 -
The alternative timeline where a PM Miliband did lead to more chaos than we have experienced would be a diverting read. Perhaps something for Cameron to work on in his shed.Jonathan said:It would really rather fun if May won a leadership VONC, but couldn't pass the bill. They would be stuck with her for a year.
The Tory party really is rubbish at govt. Worth bringing out this tonight...
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/5951123673584066560 -
OblitusSumMe said:
It's not far from Downing Street to the Commons, she could probably have sent a civil servant runner.grabcocque said:Remarkably, I imagine that the cabinet office has some kind of incredibly advanced communications technology to allow Theresa May, inside a room, to communicate with others, outside it.
I wonder what this near-magical technology might comprise.0 -
Apparently no rostrum, only a microphone on a stand.Mortimer said:These announcements keep saying ‘outside’ downing st.
I’m going to get very worried if the rostrum doesn’t have a logo on it...0 -
135 mins plus trailers.Quincel said:TheScreamingEagles said:Please no VONC on Thursday/Friday/Saturday.
Am spending Friday watching the Crimes of Grindlewood and then Saturday going to Blackpool to be in the audience of Strictly.
All of Friday, how long is that film?
Am watching the midnight showing then catching it again later on Friday.0 -
If May is being voted out because her deal is crap, why would the party rally behind someone who backs the deal, or who lamely stayed in the Cabinet for 6 months while the deal was shaping up?TheScreamingEagles said:
Jeremy Hunt, he's a PM in waiting.Jonathan said:Is there a viable caretaker Tory leader? I really can't think of anyone.
Hague (outside the Commons) would be an own goal of epic proportions.0 -
He watches it five times.....Quincel said:TheScreamingEagles said:Please no VONC on Thursday/Friday/Saturday.
Am spending Friday watching the Crimes of Grindlewood and then Saturday going to Blackpool to be in the audience of Strictly.
All of Friday, how long is that film?0 -
Can a Brexiteer explain what specific things are driving this "betrayal"? The need for widgets made outside of Belfast to meet standards of the market they predominantly exported to?Gallowgate said:
I feel these people are so used to being in the self righteous outrage position they revert to it regardless of the facts at any moment. Every sensible Brexiteer that isn't jockeying for leadership (Gove, Raab, Montgomery) backs the deal. The militant tendency are too stupid to realise when they have won and are going to blow it as a result.0 -
Ah, Strictly - the ultimate in dumbed-down TV programmes!TheScreamingEagles said:Please no VONC on Thursday/Friday/Saturday.
Am spending Friday watching the Crimes of Grindlewood and then Saturday going to Blackpool to be in the audience of Strictly.0 -
This is all pathetic from the Brexiteers.
I’m not one for rerunning the vote (I was a waverer when it came to the referendum and I finally came down on the side of reluctant remain) but I almost hope we do remain now just to watch them squeal.0 -
This....kle4 said:
If May is being voted out because her deal is crap, why would the party rally behind someone who backs the deal, or who lamely stayed in the Cabinet for 6 months while the deal was shaping up?TheScreamingEagles said:
Jeremy Hunt, he's a PM in waiting.Jonathan said:Is there a viable caretaker Tory leader? I really can't think of anyone.
Hague (outside the Commons) would be an own goal of epic proportions.0 -
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You mean an expert in waitingTheScreamingEagles said:
Jeremy Hunt, he's a PM in waiting.Jonathan said:Is there a viable caretaker Tory leader? I really can't think of anyone.
Hague (outside the Commons) would be an own goal of epic proportions.
Longer Waiting Times
Longer Waiting Lists0 -
I can't compete with that, though I did once watch Jurassic Park in the cinema and then come back the next day to see it again.MarqueeMark said:
He watches it five times.....Quincel said:TheScreamingEagles said:Please no VONC on Thursday/Friday/Saturday.
Am spending Friday watching the Crimes of Grindlewood and then Saturday going to Blackpool to be in the audience of Strictly.
All of Friday, how long is that film?0 -
If only folk voted Labour and Ed Milliband, this country will be sailing serenely onward. But instead, thanks to the fool Cameron and the crazy nutters in the Tory party, we are at a precipice. Thank you Tories! Thank you very much!Jonathan said:It would really rather fun if May won a leadership VONC, but couldn't pass the bill. They would be stuck with her for a year.
The Tory party really is rubbish at govt. Worth bringing out this tonight...
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/5951123673584066560 -
Will the Tories just split already? It's not even funny anymore to see them throw around such loathing at one another while pretending it is all just normal big tent stuff. This is fundamental stuff, people are using very extreme language of betrayal here, it is time for them to vote on May, push through a deal or collapse, then shut the f*ck up for about 4 years.0
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Chalk him up as a vote for the dealTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
He'll be an expert in my most profitable ever bet(s).bigjohnowls said:
You mean an expert in waitingTheScreamingEagles said:
Jeremy Hunt, he's a PM in waiting.Jonathan said:Is there a viable caretaker Tory leader? I really can't think of anyone.
Hague (outside the Commons) would be an own goal of epic proportions.
Longer Waiting Times
Longer Waiting Lists
I know I haven't mentioned it much but I did repeatedly tip Hunt as next PM at 100/1 and 66/1.
I win something close to 16k.
He's now around 12/1 to be next PM.0 -
Next Election Parties.
Conservative Nationalist
Conservative Pragmatist
Labour
Momentum
Lib Dems
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Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!0
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If only the unions hadn't rigged the vote for Lab leader for Ed rather than David...murali_s said:
If only folk voted Labour and Ed Milliband, this country will be sailing serenely onward. But instead, thanks to the fool Cameron and the crazy nutters in the Tory party, we are at a precipice. Thank you Tories! Thank you very much!Jonathan said:It would really rather fun if May won a leadership VONC, but couldn't pass the bill. They would be stuck with her for a year.
The Tory party really is rubbish at govt. Worth bringing out this tonight...
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/5951123673584066560 -
rottenborough said:
If only the unions hadn't rigged the vote for Lab leader for Ed rather than David...murali_s said:
If only folk voted Labour and Ed Milliband, this country will be sailing serenely onward. But instead, thanks to the fool Cameron and the crazy nutters in the Tory party, we are at a precipice. Thank you Tories! Thank you very much!Jonathan said:It would really rather fun if May won a leadership VONC, but couldn't pass the bill. They would be stuck with her for a year.
The Tory party really is rubbish at govt. Worth bringing out this tonight...
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/595112367358406656
Clearly the solution to this is for someone to build a time machine, travel back to fix the universe, and stop Eric Joyce from getting into a fight in the Sport and Social.rottenborough said:
If only the unions hadn't rigged the vote for Lab leader for Ed rather than David...murali_s said:
If only folk voted Labour and Ed Milliband, this country will be sailing serenely onward. But instead, thanks to the fool Cameron and the crazy nutters in the Tory party, we are at a precipice. Thank you Tories! Thank you very much!Jonathan said:It would really rather fun if May won a leadership VONC, but couldn't pass the bill. They would be stuck with her for a year.
The Tory party really is rubbish at govt. Worth bringing out this tonight...
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/5951123673584066560 -
I hope those aren't in descending order of vote share...Jonathan said:Next Election Parties.
Conservative Nationalist
Conservative Pragmatist
Labour
Momentum
Lib Dems0 -
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
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rottenborough said:
If only the unions hadn't rigged the vote for Lab leader for Ed rather than David lABOUR WOULD HAVE BEEN FINISHEDmurali_s said:
If only folk voted Labour and Ed Milliband, this country will be sailing serenely onward. But instead, thanks to the fool Cameron and the crazy nutters in the Tory party, we are at a precipice. Thank you Tories! Thank you very much!Jonathan said:It would really rather fun if May won a leadership VONC, but couldn't pass the bill. They would be stuck with her for a year.
The Tory party really is rubbish at govt. Worth bringing out this tonight...
https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/5951123673584066560 -
Has anyone used the phrase 'Juche Brexiteer' for the ERG hardliners ?
I think it sums them up well.0 -
Dominic Raab not going to Brussels0
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I agree. But if she can't get the cabinet to approve the deal, might she resign?Tissue_Price said:
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
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That would be the right move.stjohn said:
I agree. But if she can't get the cabinet to approve the deal, might she resign?Tissue_Price said:
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
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I would not blame herJonathan said:
That would be the right move.stjohn said:
I agree. But if she can't get the cabinet to approve the deal, might she resign?Tissue_Price said:
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
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Returning to the discussion of this morning about what a healthy economy should be based upon.
Its not too much export oriented and its not too much domestic demand.
But rather a mixture of both with sometimes more wealth creation and trade surpluses and sometimes more wealth consumption and trade deficits in a nice undulating sine curve pattern.0 -
I don't think so. She has judged that getting this deal through is in the national interest; I don't think it matters if she has to lose a few Cabinet ministers to achieve that.stjohn said:
I agree. But if she can't get the cabinet to approve the deal, might she resign?Tissue_Price said:
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
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The only question is resign as what. Tory leader or PM. She won't, but if she did resign as PM, the cabinet would right now be debating her successor for May to recommend to HM.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not blame herJonathan said:
That would be the right move.stjohn said:
I agree. But if she can't get the cabinet to approve the deal, might she resign?Tissue_Price said:
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
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Then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not blame herJonathan said:
That would be the right move.stjohn said:
I agree. But if she can't get the cabinet to approve the deal, might she resign?Tissue_Price said:
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
Who would you blame?0 -
He's missed the last Eurostar?Big_G_NorthWales said:Dominic Raab not going to Brussels
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Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.0 -
Call a GE.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not blame herJonathan said:
That would be the right move.stjohn said:
I agree. But if she can't get the cabinet to approve the deal, might she resign?Tissue_Price said:
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
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I've done the old underwater top up at 2.7Tissue_Price said:
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
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And how angry will they be when May wins ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It's National Pickle Day, apparently.0
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What do they gain from that? Genuine question.DanSmith said:0 -
Surely if they resigned the whip that would stop them standing as Conservative candidates at the next election ?DavidL said:Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.0 -
So what? She's not getting a deal through and then she will have to go anyway.Tissue_Price said:
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
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She's resigning then singing My Way?OblitusSumMe said:
Apparently no rostrum, only a microphone on a stand.Mortimer said:These announcements keep saying ‘outside’ downing st.
I’m going to get very worried if the rostrum doesn’t have a logo on it...0 -
The Tories are impressively rubbish. It only took them three years to rip the country apart and completely implode. Impressive work. And a total unforced error.
Tonight thoughts must go out to Nick Clegg. Those Lib Dems did more than we thought.0 -
If the rest of the party in parliament is lining up behind the deal, and they regard it as a traitorous betrayal, then they should not want to stand as Conservative candidates, they should stand as the True Tory party or whatever.another_richard said:
Surely if they resigned the whip that would stop them standing as Conservative candidates at the next election ?DavidL said:Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.0 -
And they will get no credit for it.Jonathan said:The Tories are impressively rubbish. It only took them three years to rip the country apart and completely implode. Impressive work. And a total unforced error.
Tonight thoughts must go out to Nick Clegg. Those Lib Dems did more than we thought.0 -
Yes it would. It would be the corn laws all over again.another_richard said:
Surely if they resigned the whip that would stop them standing as Conservative candidates at the next election ?DavidL said:Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.0 -
When I was 17, Nick Clegg came to my Sixth Form College to speak to Government and Politics students. I asked him if he thought the UK would ever join the Euro. Good times.0
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The ultras on both sides but more likely impossible to square the circlebigjohnowls said:
Then what?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not blame herJonathan said:
That would be the right move.stjohn said:
I agree. But if she can't get the cabinet to approve the deal, might she resign?Tissue_Price said:
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
Who would you blame?0 -
You'd've thought 32 Sqn would have been told to keep a 146 on standby.rottenborough said:
He's missed the last Eurostar?Big_G_NorthWales said:Dominic Raab not going to Brussels
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I never thought my contempt for the ERG/Leavers would increase, but it has grown exponentially in the last 36 hours.
Absolute bellends.0 -
Statement imminent according to the Guardian.0
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The divisions in the Tories cannot be papered over anymore. You cannot stand up and say the deal potentially hundreds of colleagues will support is as amazingly terrible and then just stick around voting with those same people. They might agree on most other things, but this is critical and speaks to general government direction for years to come, so it is not a single vote problem.DavidL said:
Yes it would. It would be the corn laws all over again.another_richard said:
Surely if they resigned the whip that would stop them standing as Conservative candidates at the next election ?DavidL said:Where does the ERG go if they force a VONC in May and lose getting, say, 45 votes? Do they resign the Whip? Do they offer the government confidence and supply but no Brexit votes? Or do they wimp out again?
They are so irrational about this it is hard to predict. There are 318 Tories and 262 Labour which means they would need 57 resigning the whip to make Labour the largest party. That seems unlikely but we are in wonderland here.0 -
AgreedTheScreamingEagles said:I never thought my contempt for the ERG/Leavers would increase, but it has grown exponentially in the last 36 hours.
Absolute bellends.0 -
If May gets Cabinet to agree, doesn't the month to December give her time to face down the ERG? It may have 48 letters, it does not have 1480
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Tories innit. Agreed.TheScreamingEagles said:I never thought my contempt for the ERG/Leavers would increase, but it has grown exponentially in the last 36 hours.
Absolute bellends.0 -
I like a man that doesn't split his infinitives. Whatever colour his hair might be.Pulpstar said:
Chalk him up as a vote for the dealTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Looking that way....kle4 said:
So what? She's not getting a deal through and then she will have to go anyway.Tissue_Price said:
Ridiculous. She'll win a VONC.stjohn said:Teresa May exit this year price on Betfair is 2.6-2.64!
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