politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those who rubbished Survation and the YouGov model look pretty

System · June 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Those who rubbished Survation and the YouGov model look pretty stupid now

Final polling table. Actual GB shares CON 43.5%LAB 41%LD 7.6%SNP 3.1%UKIP 1.9%GRN 1.7% pic.twitter.com/4RZp28vEa2

TheScreamingEagles · June 2017

Yup.

But

I take responsibility for my part in this election campaign, which was the oversight of our policy programme. In particular, I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care.

But I would like to make clear that the bizarre media reports about my own role in the policy’s inclusion are wrong: it had been the subject of many months of work within Whitehall, and it was not my personal pet project. I chose not to rebut these reports as they were published, as to have done so would have been a distraction for the campaign.

But I take responsibility for the content of the whole manifesto, which I continue to believe is an honest and strong programme for government.

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/06/nick-timothy-why-i-have-resigned-as-the-prime-ministers-adviser.html

TheScreamingEagles · June 2017

I still struggle to comprehend a world where Mansfield goes Blue and Canterbury goes Red

DanSmith · June 2017

Shout out for SurveyMonkey as well who got as close as Survation.

FrancisUrquhart · June 2017

"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay."

Even though YouGov / Survation got it right, that number was still bullshit. We know from the tv audience numbers etc that it wasn't a representative of the population.

SirNorfolkPassmore · June 2017

Deputy heads must roll, as they say.

numbertwelve · June 2017

This is at setting itself up for the triumphant return of Gove to government.

isam · June 2017

"Theresa May used this General Election to try to turn the Tory party into the standard bearers of Brexit, with the aim of wiping out Ukip, despite being a Remain supporter when the crunch came last year. What she misread is that many Ukip voters had come across from Labour. They wanted to hear more than just Brexit, they wanted a message of change. Something that the “strong and stable” line simply didn’t deliver upon in any way. Once Jeremy Corbyn had said he would leave the EU and that free movement of people would come to an end, he began to be seen as an equal option to Mrs May.

Mrs May lost the ensuing personality contest. Frankly, she was useless."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/09/useless-theresa-may-has-put-brexit-peril-ukip-may-not-irrelevant/

FrancisUrquhart · June 2017

Interestingly many polls still understated the Tory number (including YouGov and Survation), the difference came in how much some polls underestimated the Labour number.

I consistently said on here I thought Tory 44/45 max, but I really couldn't believe that 40% would vote for Corbyn, I thought the ceiling was 35-36% (which I seemed to remember ICM guy saying was the case even with a massive youth turnout).

As I pointed out from the last YouGov poll, Tories were losing with the middle aged. You can't win a majority on just oldies.

viewcode · June 2017

Following my usual practice, I wish to record here that Friday I picked up my £500 returns from Betfred after only a brief telephone check (I placed the bet in one branch and picked up the winnings in another). This represents a profit of £50 on a bet of £450@1/9 on Con most seats.

My record on political betting is still 100%. I have placed bets on the 2012 London Mayorality, the 2012 French Presidential, the 2016 Potus, the 2016 Brexit ref, the 2016 London Mayorality, the 2017 French Presidential and the 2017 UK GE. I did not place a bet on 2015 UK GE, thank goodness.

I assume regression to the mean will take place at some point, but until then please forgive me if I enjoy the moment: it is not often I am successful and I wish to retain the memory for future times.

OblitusSumMe · June 2017

One other thing to point out is that the polls all under-estimated the two-party share. So, although Survation was pretty close with a Tory lead of 1 (compared to 2.5), its two-party share of 81% under-estimated the two-party share of 84.5%.

This means that the Tory share was also under-estimated by most pollsters.

FrankBooth · June 2017

The lesson seems clear. It is very easy to tell what level of support a party has but very difficult to translate that into votes because it all depends on whether people actually end up going to the polling station. No surprise that the exit poll should be accurate - likelihood to vote is 100%

nunu · June 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:
"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay."

Even though YouGov / Survation got it right, that number was still bullshit. We know from the tv audience numbers etc that it wasn't a representative of the population.

It asked "heard or seen anything" that could be on the news.

The numbers saying who watched the actual debate was 18% which was close to the T.V viewing figures of 20% share.

Jonathan · June 2017

Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.

Scrapheap_as_was · June 2017

come again...

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/873517283150352384

The_Taxman · June 2017

Jonathan said:
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.

While that is welcome news that the advisers have quit, it should be the PM who is resigning. She has catastrophically failed the test she set for herself. She obviously has a hide like an elephant but the political skill of a donkey. Anyone in the cabinet has to be a better communicator than her poor track record in office.

viewcode · June 2017

SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Deputy heads must roll, as they say.

Sign on Theresa May's desk: "The buck stops with you. Not me"

stjohn · June 2017

Betting has moved towards a coalition since the Peston tweet.

Tory Minority 1.34-1.36
Any Other 4.3-4.5

FrankBooth · June 2017

To quote Gordon Brown 'I take full responsibility for this which is why the person responsible has resigned.'

midwinter · June 2017

Jonathan said:
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.

I think most of us want her out.

FrancisUrquhart · June 2017

viewcode said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Deputy heads must roll, as they say.
Sign on Theresa May's desk: "The buck stops with you. Not me"

Reminds we of those signs you see in car parks, stating the risk is all on you.

Clown_Car_HQ · June 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup.

But

I take responsibility for my part in this election campaign, which was the oversight of our policy programme. In particular, I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care.

But I would like to make clear that the bizarre media reports about my own role in the policy’s inclusion are wrong: it had been the subject of many months of work within Whitehall, and it was not my personal pet project. I chose not to rebut these reports as they were published, as to have done so would have been a distraction for the campaign.

But I take responsibility for the content of the whole manifesto, which I continue to believe is an honest and strong programme for government.

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/06/nick-timothy-why-i-have-resigned-as-the-prime-ministers-adviser.html

As I commented at the end of the last thread, if they had worked on this for months how could they be so unaware of public ignorance of current funding arrangements?

Incompetent cretins.

surbiton · June 2017

Forget Theresa May, has Martin Boon resigned yet ? What a pompous person.

tlg86 · June 2017

viewcode said:
Following my usual practice, I wish to record here that Friday I picked up my £500 returns from Betfred after only a brief telephone check (I placed the bet in one branch and picked up the winnings in another). This represents a profit of £50 on a bet of £450@1/9 on Con most seats.

My record on political betting is still 100%. I have placed bets on the 2012 London Mayorality, the 2012 French Presidential, the 2016 Potus, the 2016 Brexit ref, the 2016 London Mayorality, the 2017 French Presidential and the 2017 UK GE. I did not place a bet on 2015 UK GE, thank goodness.

I assume regression to the mean will take place at some point, but until then please forgive me if I enjoy the moment: it is not often I am successful and I wish to retain the memory for future times.

Well done. In the end Tory most seats was the bet to make rather than majority.

The psychology of gambling is interesting. I placed a £70 bet on Labour over 162.5 seats at 5-6 on 20 May. I felt really bad about making that bet because once you bet odds on, you should expect to win. That seems wrong to me.

SimonStClare · June 2017

FrankBooth said:
To quote Gordon Brown 'I take full responsibility for this which is why the person responsible has resigned.'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CND6i2o7tTE

Jonathan · June 2017

midwinter said:

Jonathan said:
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.

It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.

viewcode · June 2017

Scrapheap_as_was said:
come again...

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/873517283150352384

Mike, did you intend that tweet to have such a pervy interpretation? Sounds like a SeanT chat-up line: "PREPARE TO RECEIVE OR LEAVE!"

AndreaParma_82 · June 2017

Oh Dear, Plymouth forgot to add some votes into the results announced. They won't change the winner but it makes Tower Hamlets counts looking competent

From BBC

"Thousands of votes were not included in the result for a newly-elected Labour MP, Plymouth City Council has said.
Luke Pollard won Plymouth Sutton and Devonport with 23,808 votes. However, the actual figure including the missed votes cast in his favour was 27,283.
Mr Pollard said the votes from the Efford and Lipson ward were counted in his constituency, but they were not included in the result.
He would still have won comfortably over Conservative Oliver Colvile.
Mr Colvile's official result on Thursday was 17,806 votes. However, with Efford and Lipson added in he won 20,476 votes."

surbiton · June 2017

nunu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay."

Even though YouGov / Survation got it right, that number was still bullshit. We know from the tv audience numbers etc that it wasn't a representative of the population.
It asked "heard or seen anything" that could be on the news.

The numbers saying who watched the actual debate was 18% which was close to the T.V viewing figures of 20% share.

I thought the 72% completely believable. People do talk in the office canteen.

viewcode · June 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:

viewcode said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Deputy heads must roll, as they say.
Sign on Theresa May's desk: "The buck stops with you. Not me"
Reminds we of those signs you see in car parks, stating the risk is all on you.

+1

BigIan · June 2017

viewcode said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
come again...

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/873517283150352384
Mike, did you intend that tweet to have such a pervy interpretation? Sounds like a SeanT chat-up line: "PREPARE TO RECEIVE OR LEAVE!"

It's Ruthie, no?

Andrew · June 2017

Surveymonkey were also the only decent pollster in the 2015 election (Survation's unpublished also, but if you don't publish, it doesn't count!)

The_Taxman · June 2017

midwinter said:

Jonathan said:
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.

I voted Tory through gritted teeth on Thursday but I think May should resign. I think that press conference where she kept repeating the policy hadn't changed blew her political brand. I feel bad for ridiculing the "tory bedwetters" on here as they were right and I was wrong. I have no confidence in her negotiating on our behalf and indeed she should be replaced. We need someone with backbone and steel to go in and make the British case for a good deal with the EU.

FrancisUrquhart · June 2017

Australia collapsing faster than Kim Jong May's approval ratings.

alex. · June 2017

May is trying to negotiate a formal coalition with the DUP? Jesus Christ. I've said her staying on as PM seems the only viable option at the moment, but this is getting silly now. What's the point of a coalition when it will barely give them a majority anyway. And they'll quite happily walk away at any time. Surely the DUP won't be interested anyway which makes her look even more silly?

surbiton · June 2017

FrankBooth said:
The lesson seems clear. It is very easy to tell what level of support a party has but very difficult to translate that into votes because it all depends on whether people actually end up going to the polling station. No surprise that the exit poll should be accurate - likelihood to vote is 100%

So why does the "losing" side always do not believe the exit poll at first?

One of the things coming out in 2017 as well as in 2015 is that the political parties themselves are not fully aware. John McDonnell was not exactly joining in with the exit poll at 10:01 pm. He was hedging his bets, so to speak.

Surely the massive swings would have been detected at constituency level ?

midwinter · June 2017

Jonathan said:

midwinter said:

Jonathan said:
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.

I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times.
However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.

viewcode · June 2017

BigIan said:

viewcode said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:
come again...

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/873517283150352384
Mike, did you intend that tweet to have such a pervy interpretation? Sounds like a SeanT chat-up line: "PREPARE TO RECEIVE OR LEAVE!"
It's Ruthie, no?

I did not laugh at that. I did not. And you can't prove it. Now, how do you get coke off keyboards...:)

MonikerDiCanio · June 2017

viewcode said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Deputy heads must roll, as they say.
Sign on Theresa May's desk: "The buck stops with you. Not me"

I'd feared that she'd nested down in Downing St. It's going to be an ugly business dislodging her.

rcs1000 · June 2017

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/my-idiot-sons-could-run-this-country-better-than-you-queen-tells-may-20170609129225

surbiton · June 2017

FrancisUrquhart said:
Australia collapsing faster than Kim Jong May's approval ratings.

170m Bangladeshis are watching. The support for England has really gone up !

Bobajob_PB · June 2017

Shy Labour.

surbiton · June 2017

AndreaParma_82 said:
Oh Dear, Plymouth forgot to add some votes into the results announced. They won't change the winner but it makes Tower Hamlets counts looking competent

From BBC

"Thousands of votes were not included in the result for a newly-elected Labour MP, Plymouth City Council has said.
Luke Pollard won Plymouth Sutton and Devonport with 23,808 votes. However, the actual figure including the missed votes cast in his favour was 27,283.
Mr Pollard said the votes from the Efford and Lipson ward were counted in his constituency, but they were not included in the result.
He would still have won comfortably over Conservative Oliver Colvile.
Mr Colvile's official result on Thursday was 17,806 votes. However, with Efford and Lipson added in he won 20,476 votes."

This sounds like it is almost illegal, probably is.

midwinter · June 2017

The_Taxman said:

midwinter said:

Jonathan said:
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
I voted Tory through gritted teeth on Thursday but I think May should resign. I think that press conference where she kept repeating the policy hadn't changed blew her political brand. I feel bad for ridiculing the "tory bedwetters" on here as they were right and I was wrong. I have no confidence in her negotiating on our behalf and indeed she should be replaced. We need someone with backbone and steel to go in and make the British case for a good deal with the EU.

This is how I felt on Thursday too. There was absolutely nothing to encourage us to vote for her except the prospect of Corbyn.
Too much of the Tory party on the right have spent far too long focussing on Europe in an almost religious way. Frankly I wish now that Dave had called their bluff and let them bugger off to UKIP.

viewcode · June 2017

tlg86 said:

viewcode said:
Following my usual practice, I wish to record here that Friday I picked up my £500 returns from Betfred after only a brief telephone check (I placed the bet in one branch and picked up the winnings in another). This represents a profit of £50 on a bet of £450@1/9 on Con most seats.

My record on political betting is still 100%. I have placed bets on the 2012 London Mayorality, the 2012 French Presidential, the 2016 Potus, the 2016 Brexit ref, the 2016 London Mayorality, the 2017 French Presidential and the 2017 UK GE. I did not place a bet on 2015 UK GE, thank goodness.

I assume regression to the mean will take place at some point, but until then please forgive me if I enjoy the moment: it is not often I am successful and I wish to retain the memory for future times.
Well done. In the end Tory most seats was the bet to make rather than majority.

The psychology of gambling is interesting. I placed a £70 bet on Labour over 162.5 seats at 5-6 on 20 May. I felt really bad about making that bet because once you bet odds on, you should expect to win. That seems wrong to me.

Thank you. Congratulations on your win also. You are correct about the psychology of gambling being odd, and I think it particularly applies to political gambling.

AlastairMeeks · June 2017

I thought YouGov's model was brave and interesting, and said so at the time. I just wish I'd paid more attention to it.

surbiton · June 2017

Survation and YouGov faced lots of ridicule from the experts. Even here on PB.

All have gone quiet.

Bobajob_PB · June 2017

Jonathan said:
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.

Labourites should lay off and keep their counsel. Let her fudge with the frothing bigots from NI and sack her backroom team. Let her execute the retoxification strategy. Never - never! - interrupt your opponent when she is making a mistake.

tlg86 · June 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
I thought YouGov's model was brave and interesting, and said so at the time. I just wish I'd paid more attention to it.

I was so close to backing Labour in Canterbury.

Did you lose much on Plaid having an annoyingly decent night?

surbiton · June 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
I thought YouGov's model was brave and interesting, and said so at the time. I just wish I'd paid more attention to it.

The YouGov modelling technique has to be the future. It is not so much about the idea but the data and methodology.

Lord Ashcroft's is also similar but always spectacularly wrong !

alex. · June 2017

I think the Conservatives actually made a big mistake in the election not actually defending the Tuition fees policy. Presumably the idea was that "you don't fight on your opponents ground", but they actually have a potentially good news story to tell on this. And i actually think that huge numbers of people don't actually understand the policy in reality.

There are plenty of holes to pick in the Corbyn policy (and not just "magic money tree") such as the inevitable restriction of places and therefore denial of opportunity, the comparison with the patch record of university attendance in Scotland and so on. If the Tories don't have the intellectual confidence to defend the basic principles of the policy (even if the can come up with tweaks here and there - eg. repayments could be tax-deductible) then it will be a millstone around their necks for the foreseeable future.

viewcode · June 2017

MonikerDiCanio said:

viewcode said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Deputy heads must roll, as they say.
Sign on Theresa May's desk: "The buck stops with you. Not me"
I'd feared that she'd nested down in Downing St. It's going to be an ugly business dislodging her.

I am reliably informed by Max Brooks that you have to remove the head.

Roger · June 2017

"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay.

This and other polls that recorded highish turnout rates from the younger generation were fiercely criticised. I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov"

Back to the old PB adage "A Rogue poll is one whose results you don't like.

Polly Toynbee very good on Any Questions and there's clear anti-Tory sentiment. There are a lot of losers in this election. None more so than the Mail and the Sun.

DavidL · June 2017

Awesome captaincy by Morgan here. Bowl out your best bowlers and hunt for wickets.

Scott_P · June 2017

https://twitter.com/natashac/status/873522086240813061

NeilVW · June 2017

nunu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay."

Even though YouGov / Survation got it right, that number was still bullshit. We know from the tv audience numbers etc that it wasn't a representative of the population.
It asked "heard or seen anything" that could be on the news.

The numbers saying who watched the actual debate was 18% which was close to the T.V viewing figures of 20% share.

Audience share is a percentage of those watching TV at the time, which is typically 20-30 million at peak times.

Clown_Car_HQ · June 2017

midwinter said:

Jonathan said:

midwinter said:

Jonathan said:
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times.
However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.

Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.

You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.

Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.

GIN1138 · June 2017

Well I guess we know who wrote Theresa The House Stealers speech yesterday

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/06/nick-timothy-why-i-have-resigned-as-the-prime-ministers-adviser.html

Again, on another plenty. Totally in lala land...

tlg86 · June 2017

surbiton said:
Survation and YouGov faced lots of ridicule from the experts. Even here on PB.

All have gone quiet.

I was - and still am - critical of You Gov's change of methodology for their final poll. But I always maintained that it was much healthier to have pollsters giving different polls.

Martin Boon should apologise.

AlastairMeeks · June 2017

tlg86 said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I thought YouGov's model was brave and interesting, and said so at the time. I just wish I'd paid more attention to it.
I was so close to backing Labour in Canterbury.

Did you lose much on Plaid having an annoyingly decent night?

It was annoying, but survivable. Oddly Plaid getting Ceredigion marginally made me money because I had sold the Lib Dems on the spreads for a higher stake.

Roger · June 2017

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/natashac/status/873522086240813061

Genius! It's like beating the dog when the Grandmother breaks wind.

Scrapheap_as_was · June 2017

tlg86 said:

surbiton said:
Survation and YouGov faced lots of ridicule from the experts. Even here on PB.

All have gone quiet.
I was - and still am - critical of You Gov's change of methodology for their final poll. But I always maintained that it was much healthier to have pollsters giving different polls.

Martin Boon should apologise.

He's already has

isam · June 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
I thought YouGov's model was brave and interesting, and said so at the time. I just wish I'd paid more attention to it.

The open goal we missed
viewcodeviewcode • Posts: 3,901
June 4
@isam

I enjoyed your blog post http://aboutasfarasdelgados.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/the-problem-with-opinion-polls-polls.html?m=1 but you need to know that YouGov have since 2015 implemented some of your recommendations, specifically

* actively recruiting the unengaged
* weighting by political engagement

I don't know if it works or if they are doing it right. But they are doing it

isam said:
I didn't know that when I wrote the post. It would be interesting to know what they [YouGov] are doing to reach the unengaged and/or if they are able to do it

viewcode • Posts: 3,901 June 4
I think you'll find the answer in these links, tho' I haven't had time to read thru them

Before 2017
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/12/07/analysis-what-went-wrong-our-ge15-polling-and-what/
* https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/x4ae830iac/YouGov – GE2015 Post Mortem.pdf
* https://www.research-live.com/article/video/interview-with-stephan-shakespeare/id/5000652

2017 GE
* https://www.research-live.com/article/opinion/are-pollsters-ready-for-the-election/id/5021472
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/pollsters-experimental-election/

2017 GE Model
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougovs-election-model/
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougov-election-model-q/
* https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/how-yougov-model-2017-general-election-works/

Mortimer · June 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
I still struggle to comprehend a world where Mansfield goes Blue and Canterbury goes Red

It's a world where those of us who question whether neo-liberalism works for everyone forgot that it works for a lot of people, and that they vote.

But it is also a world where those of us who snipe from the sidelines about Brexit must accept some of the blame too. It does not help to heal when so many won't accept the result of a referendum.

I don't know what the new social settlement looks like - but by god do we need one.

alex. · June 2017

Roger said:
"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay.

This and other polls that recorded highish turnout rates from the younger generation were fiercely criticised. I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov"

Back to the old PB adage "A bad poll is one whose results you don't like.

Polly Toynbee very good on Any Questions and there's clear anti-Tory sentiment. There are a lot of losers in this election. None more so than the Mail and the Sun.

The problem wasn't so much the questioning of the polls. Polls can always be wrong. It was the associated analysis that emphasised time and time again that the reason they were wrong was because "the young would not turn out". Saying in effect that the polls were right, but...
It was almost as if they were being taunted, and they responded.

scotslass · June 2017

May the end be nigh?

Alistair · June 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
I thought YouGov's model was brave and interesting, and said so at the time. I just wish I'd paid more attention to it.

I thought it was brave and interesting. I didn't realise it would also be accurate!

fitalass · June 2017

"I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov."

I always retweet any new polling via Britain Elects, this was the first time I have ever got an angry response criticising me because I retweeted those YouGov polling numbers.

William_H · June 2017

OblitusSumMe said:
One other thing to point out is that the polls all under-estimated the two-party share. So, although Survation was pretty close with a Tory lead of 1 (compared to 2.5), its two-party share of 81% under-estimated the two-party share of 84.5%.

This means that the Tory share was also under-estimated by most pollsters.

Can some of that be explained by UKIP not standing candidates everywhere? I'd think there must have been people who showed up to the polling booth intending to vote for them who had to pick someone else.

marke09 · June 2017

some guy on SKY syaing hes been speaking to Con MPs and thy say the nexyt leader should come from outside cabinet

AlastairMeeks · June 2017

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I thought YouGov's model was brave and interesting, and said so at the time. I just wish I'd paid more attention to it.
I thought it was brave and interesting. I didn't realise it would also be accurate!

Preach, near-namesake.

TheScreamingEagles · June 2017

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I still struggle to comprehend a world where Mansfield goes Blue and Canterbury goes Red
It's a world where those of us who question whether neo-liberalism works for everyone forgot that it works for a lot of people, and that they vote.

But it is also a world where those of us who snipe from the sidelines about Brexit must accept some of the blame too. It does not help to heal when so many won't accept the result of a referendum.

I don't know what the new social settlement looks like - but by god do we need one.

I have a new social settlement.

Only those who are higher rate tax payers or net contributors to the Exchequer have the vote.

alex. · June 2017

marke09 said:
some guy on SKY syaing hes been speaking to Con MPs and thy say the nexyt leader should come from outside cabinet

You mean they've been talking to Gove supporters?

Mortimer · June 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I still struggle to comprehend a world where Mansfield goes Blue and Canterbury goes Red
It's a world where those of us who question whether neo-liberalism works for everyone forgot that it works for a lot of people, and that they vote.

But it is also a world where those of us who snipe from the sidelines about Brexit must accept some of the blame too. It does not help to heal when so many won't accept the result of a referendum.

I don't know what the new social settlement looks like - but by god do we need one.
I have a new social settlement.

Only those who are higher rate tax payers or net contributors to the Exchequer have the vote.

Lol.

WhisperingOracle · June 2017

Roger said:
"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay.

This and other polls that recorded highish turnout rates from the younger generation were fiercely criticised. I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov"

Back to the old PB adage "A Rogue poll is one whose results you don't like.

Polly Toynbee very good on Any Questions and there's clear anti-Tory sentiment. There are a lot of losers in this election. None more so than the Mail and the Sun.

Yes - this is a massive defeat for them.

Never seen anything like it, really.

If the anecdotal story about Murdoch stormimg out out the Times election party is true, it makes so much sense.

Mortimer · June 2017

alex. said:

marke09 said:
some guy on SKY syaing hes been speaking to Con MPs and thy say the nexyt leader should come from outside cabinet
You mean they've been talking to Gove supporters?

Raab, Kwarteng and others are all outside cabinet.

There is real talent on the back benches. Way more talent than in the Labour front bench.

tlg86 · June 2017

Scrapheap_as_was said:

tlg86 said:

surbiton said:
Survation and YouGov faced lots of ridicule from the experts. Even here on PB.

All have gone quiet.
I was - and still am - critical of You Gov's change of methodology for their final poll. But I always maintained that it was much healthier to have pollsters giving different polls.

Martin Boon should apologise.
He's already has

Fair enough.

The_Taxman · June 2017

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I still struggle to comprehend a world where Mansfield goes Blue and Canterbury goes Red

But it is also a world where those of us who snipe from the sidelines about Brexit must accept some of the blame too. It does not help to heal when so many won't accept the result of a referendum.

I don't know what the new social settlement looks like - but by god do we need one.

People don't accept it because it is likely it will make the country and specifically households worse off. That is why I don't accept it. Through no fault of my own I am worse off than I would be had that Referendum never been held. Prices have risen whilst incomes are now falling below behind the rate of increase of price rises. I don't accept the result because it was based on lies i.e. £350M per week for the NHS and the ending of mass immigration. Theresa May has just lost an election with her platform focused on Brexit, the public is telling politicians something there.

alex. · June 2017

Mortimer said:

alex. said:

marke09 said:
some guy on SKY syaing hes been speaking to Con MPs and thy say the nexyt leader should come from outside cabinet
You mean they've been talking to Gove supporters?
Raab, Kwarteng and others are all outside cabinet.

There is real talent on the back benches. Way more talent than in the Labour front bench.

There's more talent on the Labour backbenches than on the Labour front bench.

NickPalmer · June 2017

Focus groups are inherently unscientific, but a few interesting comments from swing voterws here:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/10/voices-and-votes-leaders-personality-crucial-in-unexpected-election-result

midwinter · June 2017

Clown_Car_HQ said:

midwinter said:

Jonathan said:

midwinter said:

Jonathan said:
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times.
However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.

You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.

Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.

What was the catastrophic error?
I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?

Mortimer · June 2017

The_Taxman said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I still struggle to comprehend a world where Mansfield goes Blue and Canterbury goes Red

But it is also a world where those of us who snipe from the sidelines about Brexit must accept some of the blame too. It does not help to heal when so many won't accept the result of a referendum.

I don't know what the new social settlement looks like - but by god do we need one.
People don't accept it because it is likely it will make the country and specifically households worse off. That is why I don't accept it. Through no fault of my own I am worse off than I would be had that Referendum never been held. Prices have risen whilst incomes are now falling below behind the rate of increase of price rises. I don't accept the result because it was based on lies i.e. £350M per week for the NHS and the ending of mass immigration. Theresa May has just lost an election with her platform focused on Brexit, the public is telling politicians something there.

Thanks for giving a perfect example of one of the two problems I outline.

Do you never accept the result of democracy when you lose, or just this time?

dixiedean · June 2017

In office, but not in power. United Labour. Divided the Conservatives. Well played TM.

calum · June 2017

tlg86 said:

surbiton said:
Survation and YouGov faced lots of ridicule from the experts. Even here on PB.

All have gone quiet.
I was - and still am - critical of You Gov's change of methodology for their final poll. But I always maintained that it was much healthier to have pollsters giving different polls.

Martin Boon should apologise.

Martin " Kaboom" Boon !

Alistair · June 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

Alistair said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I thought YouGov's model was brave and interesting, and said so at the time. I just wish I'd paid more attention to it.
I thought it was brave and interesting. I didn't realise it would also be accurate!
Preach, near-namesake.

It was clearly going to get better over time as YouGov refined the methodology and had practical feedback from elections.

It all feels a bit SNP 2015, how do you follow it up? I'm calling peak YouGov.

tlg86 · June 2017

The_Taxman said:

Mortimer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
I still struggle to comprehend a world where Mansfield goes Blue and Canterbury goes Red

But it is also a world where those of us who snipe from the sidelines about Brexit must accept some of the blame too. It does not help to heal when so many won't accept the result of a referendum.

I don't know what the new social settlement looks like - but by god do we need one.
People don't accept it because it is likely it will make the country and specifically households worse off. That is why I don't accept it. Through no fault of my own I am worse off than I would be had that Referendum never been held. Prices have risen whilst incomes are now falling below behind the rate of increase of price rises. I don't accept the result because it was based on lies i.e. £350M per week for the NHS and the ending of mass immigration. Theresa May has just lost an election with her platform focused on Brexit, the public is telling politicians something there.

And a lot of people feel worse off because of unrestricted immigration. Whether they are right to feel worse off is another matter.

One thing this election showed is that those in London with million pound houses believe it is their right to pass them on to their children. The Tories - and specifically George Osborne - are partly responsible for this attitude, even if they were on the moral high ground at this election.

SimonStClare · June 2017

fitalass said:
"I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov."

I always retweet any new polling via Britain Elects, this was the first time I have ever got an angry response criticising me because I retweeted those YouGov polling numbers.

Were any of those angry tweets from Southam Observer?

Mortimer · June 2017

alex. said:

Mortimer said:

alex. said:

marke09 said:
some guy on SKY syaing hes been speaking to Con MPs and thy say the nexyt leader should come from outside cabinet
You mean they've been talking to Gove supporters?
Raab, Kwarteng and others are all outside cabinet.

There is real talent on the back benches. Way more talent than in the Labour front bench.
There's more talent on the Labour backbenches than on the Labour front bench.

Yup. I think we can all agree that the front benches look pretty week at the moment.

another_richard · June 2017

Does anyone have a list of the new Conservative constituencies by home ownership percentage ?

I'll take a guess that only Chelsea, CoL&W and possibly Putney are lower than 50%.

Alistair · June 2017

I hope people are reflecting on the change in Brexit vote to party vote patterns that Ashcroft has shown. Proper interesting

alex. · June 2017

Re: the main topic what i don't really understand is why the Labour vote was understated, but there wasn't a corollary of an overstatement in the Tory vote.

fitalass · June 2017

Jonathan said:

midwinter said:

Jonathan said:
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.

Unfortunately, the one person who should be stepping into the void and steadying the ship is now editing a London newspaper thanks to the behaviour of May and her clique in the days after she became leader! If May resigns, she needs to do so with the caveat that she remains as interim Leader and PM until a new Leader is elected, and because what we don't want right now is another Leader inposed on us without a proper contest.

tlg86 · June 2017

Here's a piece of analysis that needs doing. Did turnout increase more in areas that voted Remain? Did the Tories suffer from Brexiteers not voting?

Alistair · June 2017

another_richard said:
Does anyone have a list of the new Conservative constituencies by home ownership percentage ?

I'll take a guess that only Chelsea, CoL&W and possibly Putney are lower than 50%.

That's a question I've been mulling, along with the average age people buy their first house at and how much that has risen.

dixiedean · June 2017

LOL. First caller on Any Answers wants Phil Davies of Shipley as new PM! We are so far down the rabbit hole!

Barnesian · June 2017

alex. said:
May is trying to negotiate a formal coalition with the DUP? Jesus Christ. I've said her staying on as PM seems the only viable option at the moment, but this is getting silly now. What's the point of a coalition when it will barely give them a majority anyway. And they'll quite happily walk away at any time. Surely the DUP won't be interested anyway which makes her look even more silly?

The DUP thing won't last through Monday.

Nigelb · June 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup.

But

I take responsibility for my part in this election campaign, which was the oversight of our policy programme. In particular, I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care.

But I would like to make clear that the bizarre media reports about my own role in the policy’s inclusion are wrong: it had been the subject of many months of work within Whitehall, and it was not my personal pet project. I chose not to rebut these reports as they were published, as to have done so would have been a distraction for the campaign.

But I take responsibility for the content of the whole manifesto, which I continue to believe is an honest and strong programme for government.

http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2017/06/nick-timothy-why-i-have-resigned-as-the-prime-ministers-adviser.html

From today's Times: "John Godfrey, the No 10 policy chief had spent months working on a cap to social care costs, but saw it ripped up in favour of a floor..."
Apparently the ripping was at least partly Timothy's decision.

(Incidentally, I must apologise for assuming previously that Godfrey bore some responsibility for the fuckup.)

another_richard · June 2017

surbiton said:
Forget Theresa May, has Martin Boon resigned yet ? What a pompous person.

Disaster is often the consequence of thinking yourself cleverer than you are.

Scrapheap_as_was · June 2017

marke09 said:
some guy on SKY syaing hes been speaking to Con MPs and thy say the nexyt leader should come from outside cabinet

and a spurs supporter...

@500-1...

surbiton · June 2017

tlg86 said:
Here's a piece of analysis that needs doing. Did turnout increase more in areas that voted Remain? Did the Tories suffer from Brexiteers not voting?

I believe I heard that it did.

Nigelb · June 2017

calum said:

tlg86 said:

surbiton said:
Survation and YouGov faced lots of ridicule from the experts. Even here on PB.

All have gone quiet.
I was - and still am - critical of You Gov's change of methodology for their final poll. But I always maintained that it was much healthier to have pollsters giving different polls.

Martin Boon should apologise.
Martin " Kaboom" Boon !

Hoist with his own kaboom.

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