Miss Fitalass, it's just a shame Ruth Davidson can't be PM.
"Scotland saved the Conservatives. #Unexpectedplottwists"
Her or Osborne would be the stand out candidates. If only the daft sod hadn't buggered off to indulge his vendetta (as I wrote yesterday, I wonder if he regrets harming his own side with his newspaper shenanigans, or feels his mockery was vindicated by the woeful performance).
if May was serious about staying on and righting the ship, she could hire Osborne to replace Nick and Fiona
But then I find Ciri and Alexa creepy, and the idea that people welcome the idea of electronic devices recording everything they say somewhat alarming.
All this talk of Labour's vote being inefficient reminds me of "the Democrats have an advantage in the EC", it's all nonsense ofcourse, the coalition of voters change reguarly at elections.
Yes, that's true. And once both main parties are over 40%, FPTP creates loads of ultra-marginal seats. If the SNP continue to decline, then a 2% lead will probably be enough for an overall majority.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
Labourites should lay off and keep their counsel. Let her fudge with the frothing bigots from NI and sack her backroom team. Let her execute the retoxification strategy. Never - never! - interrupt your opponent when she is making a mistake.
Yes, indeed
^^^ that has to be the strategy.
Crucially, Labour need to broaden their attacks on the tory brand and resist focussing on ousting TM. That's a trap. Assume she's going to be gone in 3 months.
They also need to figure out why they came so close to winning a pile of seats they weren't expecting to.
Just look at the scotland results.
Almost winning - without putting resources in - indicates the national campaign was dysfunctional, despite its apparent success.
It seems ironic when this is exactly what Corbyn did but just maybe the day of bribing the oldies and neglecting the next generation just might be over.
Doubt it.
If Theresa The House Stealer hadn't threatened to take away pensioner's WFA and steal their houses the Conservatives would have ended up with at least the same majority as Cameron got and may even have increased it a bit...
A Tory three line whip, promising hopeful candidacies to the dispossessed and concessions to the DUP, why not?
A Unionist from NI (Lucian Fletcher is I think the poster's name) posted on pb.com that the DUP would block the boundary changes because they are very bad for Unionists in NI.
The boundary changes 600 model is dead. Forget about it. Start a new process.
Now where's my poster of Theresa May with Ian Paisley senior in her top pocket.
RE: Mike's tweet earlier. I think people should prepare for the possibility of some narrative changing polls this evening. I think there may be surprising support for May to carry on, and considerable lack of enthusiasm about her possible replacements.
Consider you were a Brexit supporter in this election (and probably one who favoured prioritsing immigration over single market access) and you believed that Brexit was settled as an issue and you could vote for other reasons. And then the election happens and suddenly you see remainers in the ascendent, people saying that there is no mandate for anything but the softest Brexit, may be even Brexit itself is in danger. That a change of leadership may lead to another election and an inevitable delay in Brexit negotiations.
Do you think that possibly your conclusion at the end of all this (outside the politics bubble) is that May should stay on and face down her critics. And given that many people may have voted Labour because they saw Corbyn as no threat may now be reassessing. So the polls may still show her as preferred PM to Corbyn, and inevitably will show her as preferred PM to Conservative alternatives.
The fact that people on here are suggesting that had Osborne not left Parliament he would be PM by Monday, just shows how out of touch with reality many on here are with the wider country.
While sitting on the bench they have 10 former internationals who the manager hasn't picked.
While clearly the crisis is Downing Street is the most important issue of the day, at some point we will need to talk about where Labour go from here.
Corbyn didn't win. They are not in Government. Almost every other opposition leader having failed to win a majority, resigns. We know that is not Corbyn's style, but they need to do something. He's still crap. If May is replaced by someone human, PMQs will still be a bloodbath every week
Hold on chaps (and chapesses). The Betfair market on the next government is still open and it looks between Con minority and Any Other (viz Con/DUP coalition). Currently 1.3 and 4.5 respectively.
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
Your thoughts very much matched mine after having a day to reflect on the results. I am very much of the view that Jeremy Hunt is the steadying hand required, but with a team that has to include some of the most talented Cameroons like Michael Gove, Morgan etc. For me, Boris is as near damn it a membership breaker, a self seeking maverick like him is not the answer. And the words Grammar schools and fox hunting should be banned to a bin marked toxic. I am very much against a formal coalition with the DUP, especially with the current ongoing situation in the NI assembly.
Mr. 09, yeah, when I was flitting through the numbers the other day Wales stood out as a place the blues went backwards when they should've been making gains.
"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay.
This and other polls that recorded highish turnout rates from the younger generation were fiercely criticised. I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov"
Back to the old PB adage "A Rogue poll is one whose results you don't like.
Polly Toynbee very good on Any Questions and there's clear anti-Tory sentiment. There are a lot of losers in this election. None more so than the Mail and the Sun.
Jonathan Dimbleby did remind her that this was no Labour victory and with next years boundary changes in place Mrs May would have had around 80 seats more than Labour.
Labour's votes are in the wrong places after 2018. A win on the popular vote for Labour could still mean a Tory majority. Cameron and Osborne really were master tacticians.
You think the boundary changes will be approved by this Parliament?
They affect he DUP quite badly don't they?
I've just remembered that the DUP leader isbat the centre of the cash for ash scandal.
Arlene certainly provides a model of a beleagured leader hanging on for grim death, fiercely batting of criticism. She has the hide of a rhinoceros though, while Tessy seems a little more brittle.
Re MANSFIELD I live in the adjacent constituency (Ashfield) but the result is not such a great surprise as it might seem from outside. "Sir" Alan Meale has been MP for the last 30 years, sine the days when the constituency was in the gift of the National Union of Mineworkers. The feeling seemed to be that he has done alright for himself, not so well for Mansfield. Things have changed around here: recently the Mayor of Mansfield was an Independent, whereas at one time he would have had to be Labour. Also the question of Brexit is important, as Alan Meale was for Remain, and this is a strong area for Leave. It was known that he was under threat, and so it came to pass.
The results in the east Midlands seems to have gone very different from the rest of the country. you say the result from Mansfield was partly down to the local MP but Ashfield was vey close aswell. Why did the tories almost GAIN Ashfield as well at the same time as losing High Peak?
High Peak faces the NW to a greater degree, culturally.
This Juncker is really getting annoying. I suggest Theresa sends her new DUP chums in to the intial negotiations. Arlene can stare him down and say No to everything. They'll be begging for Davis and Fox to come back.
Miss Fitalass, it's just a shame Ruth Davidson can't be PM.
"Scotland saved the Conservatives. #Unexpectedplottwists"
Her or Osborne would be the stand out candidates. If only the daft sod hadn't buggered off to indulge his vendetta (as I wrote yesterday, I wonder if he regrets harming his own side with his newspaper shenanigans, or feels his mockery was vindicated by the woeful performance).
Quite possibly both, Mr.D. I've always thought there's just a touch of the scorpion and the frog about Osborne, however much I appreciate his talents.
I should never have posted about the cricket... England two down for not very much. And Roy fails yet again.
Miss Fitalass, it's just a shame Ruth Davidson can't be PM.
"Scotland saved the Conservatives. #Unexpectedplottwists"
Her or Osborne would be the stand out candidates. If only the daft sod hadn't buggered off to indulge his vendetta (as I wrote yesterday, I wonder if he regrets harming his own side with his newspaper shenanigans, or feels his mockery was vindicated by the woeful performance).
if May was serious about staying on and righting the ship, she could hire Osborne to replace Nick and Fiona
I was brought up in Aberdeen South an old Tory seat. It is hard to express what an amazing job Ruth Davidson has done in the space of the last 5 years. Winning back Aberdeen South with a solid majority after 25 years is just the icing on the cake.
The Tory campaign in Scotland was everything that the Theresa May campaign was not. It focussed on local issues. It saw Brexit as providing opportunities but risks as well and above all it focussed on a one nation Tory party. There was no glorification of Ruth Davidson but she was everywhere she could be on TV, radio, canvassing and social media. Ruth understands twitter in a way that Theresa May never will.
F1: annoyingly, just read that apparently the tyres aren't gripping enough and causing lots of spins. Not necessarily a wrecker of my No Safety Car bet, but not welcome news.
Peak Corbyn, massive offers of 'free' goodies, terrible PM, worst Tory manifesto in history - and they still got 317 seats.
Labour got 262 seats.
Forget the vote share, this is FPTP, and the only thing that matters is seat share.
Almost letting a group of economically illiterate extremists to steal the keys to Downing Street is unforgivable, but Corbyn's 'surge' will dissipate, and he will go on being what he has always been.
His apologists need to get real.
262 seats is a pretty decent start given Gordon Brown's similar 2010 total included Scotland pre Sindy.
Farage will surely contest the Thanet by election, should there be one. I wonder if there is a way back for UKIP? I think there is for Farage, but not convinced for the Kippers
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
The strengthening of support for the Union is the one big positive from this election (and in the long run, perhaps the most important outcome).
I'd prefer May to go in months, rather than weeks, like Michael Howard did. No good decisions get made in haste.
I'm trying to work out the logistics of what will happen if this attempted DUP thing crashes away very quickly, as appearances begin to suggest that it might.
In that case May could put forward a very bland moderate Queen's Speech, perhaps including something very Lib Dem (reduce tuition fees?) And dare the Liberal Democrats to vote it down.
RE: Mike's tweet earlier. I think people should prepare for the possibility of some narrative changing polls this evening. I think there may be surprising support for May to carry on, and considerable lack of enthusiasm about her possible replacements.
Consider you were a Brexit supporter in this election (and probably one who favoured prioritsing immigration over single market access) and you believed that Brexit was settled as an issue and you could vote for other reasons. And then the election happens and suddenly you see remainers in the ascendent, people saying that there is no mandate for anything but the softest Brexit, may be even Brexit itself is in danger. That a change of leadership may lead to another election and an inevitable delay in Brexit negotiations.
Do you think that possibly your conclusion at the end of all this (outside the politics bubble) is that May should stay on and face down her critics. And given that many people may have voted Labour because they saw Corbyn as no threat may now be reassessing. So the polls may still show her as preferred PM to Corbyn, and inevitably will show her as preferred PM to Conservative alternatives.
The fact that people on here are suggesting that had Osborne not left Parliament he would be PM by Monday, just shows how out of touch with reality many on here are with the wider country.
Just a few thoughts...
Well I think it's safe to say I have never been a fan of the Master Strategist... And if he was in HoC I certainly wouldn't be supporting him for Con leader... But Theresa The House Stealer is finished.
The public may well wish her to carry on tonight's polls - The British are a fair bunch and won't wish to be overtly nasty to her. But in the end her credibility is shot not just with her own party but also with the wider electorate (whether the acknowledge it or not) and also with the people we'll be negotiating with in ten days time.
It's the same situation as with Cameron last June. The public would have liked him to carry on as PM... But after losing the referendum he was done - And to his credit he realized it straight the way.
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
Your thoughts very much matched mine after having a day to reflect on the results. I am very much of the view that Jeremy Hunt is the steadying hand required, but with a team that has to include some of the most talented Cameroons like Michael Gove, Morgan etc. For me, Boris is as near damn it a membership breaker for me. And the words Grammar schools and fox hunting should be banned to a bin marked toxic. I am very much against a formal coalition with the DUP, especially with the current ongoing situation in the NI assembly.
I don't think Boris would be as bad as you seem to think but he would be divisive and that would be fatal for what is now a minority government. We need all the (limited) talent on board for a very difficult job.
As the second most talented Tory politician (behind Cameron) of his generation Osborne is a serious loss and one of the first jobs of the next leader is to get him back on board. We had to watch ITV through the internet but it was well worth doing. His and Ed Balls contributions on election night were a completely different class from anyone else's.
A lot of pundits seem to be conveniently forgetting that Kensington was a top Labour target at the 1992 election after they almost won it at the 1988 by-election. I read somewhere that the Labour candidate in 1992 was "very disappointed" not to win it in 1992. If it was regarded as a marginal in 1988 and 1992 it can't really have changed into a "safe Tory seat" 25 years later given the demographic changes since then. (I know the current Kensington seat doesn't have exactly the same boundaries as the pre-1997 version).
Farage will surely contest the Thanet by election, should there be one. I wonder if there is a way back for UKIP? I think there is for Farage, but not convinced for the Kippers
Hi iSam. I owe you £20, as I see Tim Aker got 20.1%. Were there any others over 15%?
Will do bank transfer if your A/c details are the same.
This Juncker is really getting annoying. I suggest Theresa sends her new DUP chums in to the intial negotiations. Arlene can stare him down and say No to everything. They'll be begging for Davis and Fox to come back.
RE: Mike's tweet earlier. I think people should prepare for the possibility of some narrative changing polls this evening. I think there may be surprising support for May to carry on, and considerable lack of enthusiasm about her possible replacements.
Consider you were a Brexit supporter in this election (and probably one who favoured prioritsing immigration over single market access) and you believed that Brexit was settled as an issue and you could vote for other reasons. And then the election happens and suddenly you see remainers in the ascendent, people saying that there is no mandate for anything but the softest Brexit, may be even Brexit itself is in danger. That a change of leadership may lead to another election and an inevitable delay in Brexit negotiations.
Do you think that possibly your conclusion at the end of all this (outside the politics bubble) is that May should stay on and face down her critics. And given that many people may have voted Labour because they saw Corbyn as no threat may now be reassessing. So the polls may still show her as preferred PM to Corbyn, and inevitably will show her as preferred PM to Conservative alternatives.
The fact that people on here are suggesting that had Osborne not left Parliament he would be PM by Monday, just shows how out of touch with reality many on here are with the wider country.
Just a few thoughts...
I certainly did not suggest that Osborne would become PM by Monday, but I certainly did suggest that he could now have been sitting in a prominent Cabinet position doing the job he did so successfully for Cameron for over a decade. You don't need to be the Leader or PM to be an extremely effective and stabilisng member of the team.
Miss Fitalass, it's just a shame Ruth Davidson can't be PM.
"Scotland saved the Conservatives. #Unexpectedplottwists"
Her or Osborne would be the stand out candidates. If only the daft sod hadn't buggered off to indulge his vendetta (as I wrote yesterday, I wonder if he regrets harming his own side with his newspaper shenanigans, or feels his mockery was vindicated by the woeful performance).
Ruth has been a big fish in a wee pund. She has no experience of wider UK politics that would make her a legitimate candidate for No. 10.
The jokey wind up tweets are not what we need at the moment.
Farage will surely contest the Thanet by election, should there be one. I wonder if there is a way back for UKIP? I think there is for Farage, but not convinced for the Kippers
Mackinley's vote went up massively in spite of the charges laid against him. Electorates don't like being forced to the polls after they've given their verdict. If he is forced out i think they'll probably increase his replacement's majority even further.
RE: Mike's tweet earlier. I think people should prepare for the possibility of some narrative changing polls this evening. I think there may be surprising support for May to carry on, and considerable lack of enthusiasm about her possible replacements.
Consider you were a Brexit supporter in this election (and probably one who favoured prioritsing immigration over single market access) and you believed that Brexit was settled as an issue and you could vote for other reasons. And then the election happens and suddenly you see remainers in the ascendent, people saying that there is no mandate for anything but the softest Brexit, may be even Brexit itself is in danger. That a change of leadership may lead to another election and an inevitable delay in Brexit negotiations.
By the same token, you presumably wanted Tezza to get "the best deal" with all the good stuff you want and none of the bad stuff you don't
Now you know she is so weak she can't choose any of her staff, do you really want to send her into Brussels?
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
The strengthening of support for the Union is the one big positive from this election (and in the long run, perhaps the most important outcome).
I'd prefer May to go in months, rather than weeks, like Michael Howard did. No good decisions get made in haste.
I'm trying to work out the logistics of what will happen if this attempted DUP thing crashes away very quickly, as appearances begin to suggest that it might.
In that case May could put forward a very bland moderate Queen's Speech, perhaps including something very Lib Dem (reduce tuition fees?) And dare the Liberal Democrats to vote it down.
and in that case, they would, I think. Too much to prove to a wider support base post-2015 for them to afford not, you'd have to think.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
Pretty sure most of his party realised he'd resign if leave won. Bizarrely plenty of them were happy for it to happen as were many Tories on here.
For the record, I am not a PB Tory, more of an old-fashioned pre-SDP Liberal, so very much in a minority.
I wonder if those who were happy that he resigned are happy with what we have now.
I doubt it but they'll never admit it.
I was reflecting on the fact this morning, that if one decides to stay in the aftermath of a setback (as May has) one can always change ones mind if it becomes clear that it was a mistake or that you don't have the support. As May may do.
If you resign immediately then there's no turning back. If Cameron had only been persuaded to think about it over the weekend then he may have decided to stay... and the world (mine at least) would be a happier place.
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
The strengthening of support for the Union is the one big positive from this election (and in the long run, perhaps the most important outcome).
I'd prefer May to go in months, rather than weeks, like Michael Howard did. No good decisions get made in haste.
I'm trying to work out the logistics of what will happen if this attempted DUP thing crashes away very quickly, as appearances begin to suggest that it might.
In that case May could put forward a very bland moderate Queen's Speech, perhaps including something very Lib Dem (reduce tuition fees?) And dare the Liberal Democrats to vote it down.
Don't think that'd work. Lib dems can always use Brexit as a reason to vote any Queen's Speech down
Top Tory Nigel Evans added: “A manifesto should be about apple pie and cream but ours was laced with arsenic.”
Getting there, I think. He hould havr said “A manifesto should be about apple pie and cream but ours was laced with arsenic. But without the apple pie. And without the cream”
I wonder how Mr Evans will get on with his new coalition partners, intolerant bigots that they are.
Farage will surely contest the Thanet by election, should there be one. I wonder if there is a way back for UKIP? I think there is for Farage, but not convinced for the Kippers
Mackinley's vote went up massively in spite of the charges laid against him. Electorates don't like being forced to the polls after they've given their verdict. If he is forced out i think they'll probably increase his replacement's majority even further.
Don't you think his vote might have gone up massively because he wasn't up against Farage this time?
F1: annoyingly, just read that apparently the tyres aren't gripping enough and causing lots of spins. Not necessarily a wrecker of my No Safety Car bet, but not welcome news.
Only P2, though. Testing the limits, plus a still quite 'green' track.
Farage will surely contest the Thanet by election, should there be one. I wonder if there is a way back for UKIP? I think there is for Farage, but not convinced for the Kippers
Hi iSam. I owe you £20,asI see Tim Aker got 20.1%. Were there any others over 15%?
Will do bank transfer if your A/c details are the same.
RE: Mike's tweet earlier. I think people should prepare for the possibility of some narrative changing polls this evening. I think there may be surprising support for May to carry on, and considerable lack of enthusiasm about her possible replacements.
Consider you were a Brexit supporter in this election (and probably one who favoured prioritsing immigration over single market access) and you believed that Brexit was settled as an issue and you could vote for other reasons. And then the election happens and suddenly you see remainers in the ascendent, people saying that there is no mandate for anything but the softest Brexit, may be even Brexit itself is in danger. That a change of leadership may lead to another election and an inevitable delay in Brexit negotiations.
Do you think that possibly your conclusion at the end of all this (outside the politics bubble) is that May should stay on and face down her critics. And given that many people may have voted Labour because they saw Corbyn as no threat may now be reassessing. So the polls may still show her as preferred PM to Corbyn, and inevitably will show her as preferred PM to Conservative alternatives.
The fact that people on here are suggesting that had Osborne not left Parliament he would be PM by Monday, just shows how out of touch with reality many on here are with the wider country.
Just a few thoughts...
I certainly did not suggest that Osborne would become PM by Monday, but I certainly did suggest that he could now have been sitting in a prominent Cabinet position doing the job he did so successfully for Cameron for over a decade. You don't need to be the Leader or PM to be an extremely effective and stabilisng member of the team.
Not that it detracts from the wider point, but may reference was to people on here suggesting he would be PM by Monday, not people who didn't!
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
Oh, and the other error was hubris. He thought he couldn't lose the referendum and did no contingency planning. The Civil Service was not allowed to make any preparation. Friends in the Treasury told me they were forbidden to even spend time thinking about Brexit. All of that was a massive dereliction of duty and now we are in this quagmire.
I appreciate you think differently.
If he had allowed 'preparation' for Brexit to take place he would have been accused of undermining the Brexiteers because it would have highlighted that were asking the country to jump into an abyss.
That doesn't ring true. Cameron's taxpayer-funded leaflet to all households, Project Fear, fire and brimstone threats - there was no shortage of Government highlighting of the Brexit "abyss" that, in its view, awaited voters - regardless of Leavers' complaints.
It seems ironic when this is exactly what Corbyn did but just maybe the day of bribing the oldies and neglecting the next generation just might be over.
Doubt it.
If Theresa The House Stealer hadn't threatened to take away pensioner's WFA and steal their houses the Conservatives would have ended up with at least the same majority as Cameron got and may even have increased it a bit...
David Herdson commented that WFA was a bigger issue than dementia in his canvassing.
I suspect that hit the Conservatives in the middle class north while dementia was more damaging in the middle class south.
Apparently Boris has been receiving calls, and stands ready if needed...
I'll be tearing up my membership card if that happens. Caveat - unless he guarantees to deliver that £350m pw for the NHS - without that commitment he's toast as a leader to get behind as far as I'm concerned.
Two very good reasons for making Boris the next leader of the Conservative Party. What fun!
"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay.
This and other polls that recorded highish turnout rates from the younger generation were fiercely criticised. I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov"
Back to the old PB adage "A Rogue poll is one whose results you don't like.
Polly Toynbee very good on Any Questions and there's clear anti-Tory sentiment. There are a lot of losers in this election. None more so than the Mail and the Sun.
Jonathan Dimbleby did remind her that this was no Labour victory and with next years boundary changes in place Mrs May would have had around 80 seats more than Labour.
Labour's votes are in the wrong places after 2018. A win on the popular vote for Labour could still mean a Tory majority. Cameron and Osborne really were master tacticians.
You think the boundary changes will be approved by this Parliament?
They affect he DUP quite badly don't they?
I've just remembered that the DUP leader isbat the centre of the cash for ash scandal.
Arlene certainly provides a model of a beleagured leader hanging on for grim death, fiercely batting of criticism. She has the hide of a rhinoceros though, while Tessy seems a little more brittle.
I think May is very weak, the diametrical opposite of strong and stable. May is the personification of the Peter principle IMO. She is a complete write off now politically, she should come out and say she cannot deliver Brexit and will retract article 50.
@TomMcTague: What Theresa May has lost in 7 weeks: Comms director, press secretary, both chiefs of staff, Tory majority, personal authority. No 10 gutted
RE: Mike's tweet earlier. I think people should prepare for the possibility of some narrative changing polls this evening.
The big one is the Brexit tracking poll. In the days leading up to the election it started to break out towards a majority saying Brexit is the wrong decision for the first time since the referendum.
It seems ironic when this is exactly what Corbyn did but just maybe the day of bribing the oldies and neglecting the next generation just might be over.
Doubt it.
If Theresa The House Stealer hadn't threatened to take away pensioner's WFA and steal their houses the Conservatives would have ended up with at least the same majority as Cameron got and may even have increased it a bit...
David Herdson commented that WFA was a bigger issue than dementia in his canvassing.
I suspect that hit the Conservatives in the middle class north while dementia was more damaging in the middle class south.
Well I'm not a Con Party member but I did observe tremendous anger about WFA from pensioners where I live in the East Midlands. Especially when it turned out Scottish pensioners would keep their WFA.
Having slept for 12 hours and recovered from the drama I've calmed down from my anger at it all. Seems to me there's an obvious way forward, if anyone has the wit to make it happen. From the result it's clear the electorate do not approve either side having a majority and also have not provided a clear path to coalition of stability. We also know that 13 million on each side support the main party thrusts, and that the SNP remain the biggest player for Scotland and that LD and Plaid are relevant enough to have increased seats. Green politics is seen as niche but relevant enough that Lucas personal vote went up. I do not propose national government, I propose the agreement of a national programme and national Brexit task force. A programme to be made up of key proposals from both main sides and some issues of the minority parties. An agreed Brexit task force send strategy, national red lines. A new contract with the people, young and old. Run it all on cabinet government basis with a rainbow cabinet to the point of leaving the EU. Restore the faith of people in the establishment to understand the result given them. Then back to the country with each party's proposals to see if we want to give either or any majority rights. All non national programme issues to be debated and voted on free vote terms until the next majority government is elected. Let the opposition shoot it down if they want and not see part of their vision implemented.
IMHO any other solution will be damaging to the parties, damaging to stability, damaging to Brexit and, as such, catastrophic for us all. We've given our answer, they need to listen to it.
A Tory three line whip, promising hopeful candidacies to the dispossessed and concessions to the DUP, why not?
A Unionist from NI (Lucian Fletcher is I think the poster's name) posted on pb.com that the DUP would block the boundary changes because they are very bad for Unionists in NI.
The boundary changes 600 model is dead. Forget about it. Start a new process.
Now where's my poster of Theresa May with Ian Paisley senior in her top pocket.
@TomMcTague: What Theresa May has lost in 7 weeks: Comms director, press secretary, both chiefs of staff, Tory majority, personal authority. No 10 gutted
In the long run it's immensely positive for us as a nation that it was a humiliation meted out in a democratic British election rather than as a result of being found out by Brussels. It gives us chance to rethink the direction we've chosen.
If any leader should be considering their position its Welsh Cosnervatives leader Andrew RT Davies
The story is that he argued for a local campaign instead of the Team May Strong and Stable keech, and Fi shut him down.
Ruth had the same discussion, and we know the result...
he was laughed at first debate , then a ublic row with SOS for Wales as to who should do the ext debate and who goes on holiday 2 weeks before an election?
Apparently Boris has been receiving calls, and stands ready if needed...
I'll be tearing up my membership card if that happens. Caveat - unless he guarantees to deliver that £350m pw for the NHS - without that commitment he's toast as a leader to get behind as far as I'm concerned.
Two very good reasons for making Boris the next leader of the Conservative Party. What fun!
What a choice that would be: Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn at the following election.
RE: Mike's tweet earlier. I think people should prepare for the possibility of some narrative changing polls this evening. I think there may be surprising support for May to carry on, and considerable lack of enthusiasm about her possible replacements.
Consider you were a Brexit supporter in this election (and probably one who favoured prioritsing immigration over single market access) and you believed that Brexit was settled as an issue and you could vote for other reasons. And then the election happens and suddenly you see remainers in the ascendent, people saying that there is no mandate for anything but the softest Brexit, may be even Brexit itself is in danger. That a change of leadership may lead to another election and an inevitable delay in Brexit negotiations.
By the same token, you presumably wanted Tezza to get "the best deal" with all the good stuff you want and none of the bad stuff you don't
Now you know she is so weak she can't choose any of her staff, do you really want to send her into Brussels?
I think for many getting out, and control over immigration was the limit of their ambitions. But anyway i'm only speculating on a possible polling reaction. It was Mike who said there were some "interesting" results.
@TomMcTague: What Theresa May has lost in 7 weeks: Comms director, press secretary, both chiefs of staff, Tory majority, personal authority. No 10 gutted
In the long run it's immensely positive for us as a nation that it was a humiliation meted out in a democratic British election rather than as a result of being found out by Brussels. It gives us chance to rethink the direction we've chosen.
Yes. The only thing that worries me is that some on Continent have already decided on enforcing this humilation now, as a result of the lunacy of last year, and we may have less room to manoeuvre than we might like.
Boris would be a nightmare. Michael Gove, when carrying out the most sensational knifing the Tory party has seen since Thatchers downfall, commented on how he didn't think Bojo had the qualities to be PM. It was a view that secretly some figures in the Tory Party shared. I hardly think he was acting without taking soundings from others.
It doesn't sound like a very good idea to out that person in charge when the party only needs say, 4'or 5 Tory MPs to vote against the government to give it a loss. That pool of MPs includes people such as Philip Davies, Mad Nad, the beast of Broxtowe, arch europhile Ken Clarke, Nicky 'Handbag' Morgan and Mr Bone.
@TomMcTague: What Theresa May has lost in 7 weeks: Comms director, press secretary, both chiefs of staff, Tory majority, personal authority. No 10 gutted
Turns out the saboteurs weren't needed. Mrs May sabotaged it all on her own.
@TomMcTague: What Theresa May has lost in 7 weeks: Comms director, press secretary, both chiefs of staff, Tory majority, personal authority. No 10 gutted
I propose the agreement of a national programme and national Brexit task force. A programme to be made up of key proposals from both main sides and some issues of the minority parties. An agreed Brexit task force send strategy, national red lines. A new contract with the people, young and old. Run it all on cabinet government basis with a rainbow cabinet to the point of leaving the EU. Restore the faith of people in the establishment to understand the result given them. Then back to the country with each party's proposals to see if we want to give either or any majority rights. All non national programme issues to be debated and voted on free vote terms until the next majority government is elected.
That sounds good, except...
If you are a Brexiteer, it makes sense. Everyone working for the best possible version of Brexit, prepared to debate and agree (and hope Brussels agrees)
Maybe that's what the country wants too
But, if you take the view that Brexit is a bad idea, if we have driven over the edge of a cliff, organising a committe on the bus to debate how quickly the ground is approaching in the end doesn't help much
@TomMcTague: What Theresa May has lost in 7 weeks: Comms director, press secretary, both chiefs of staff, Tory majority, personal authority. No 10 gutted
In the long run it's immensely positive for us as a nation that it was a humiliation meted out in a democratic British election rather than as a result of being found out by Brussels. It gives us chance to rethink the direction we've chosen.
Tweak this paragraph slightly, go back about a year, and i can almost hear a Brexit supporter there!
Boris would be a nightmare. Michael Gove, when carrying out the most sensational knifing the Tory party has seen since Thatchers downfall, commented on how he didn't think Bojo had the qualities to be PM. It was a view that secretly some figures in the Tory Party shared. I hardly think he was acting without taking soundings from others.
It doesn't sound like a very good idea to out that person in charge when the party only needs say, 4'or 5 Tory MPs to vote against the government to give it a loss. That pool of MPs includes people such as Philip Davies, Mad Nad, the beast of Broxtowe, arch europhile Ken Clarke, Nicky 'Handbag' Morgan and Mr Bone.
Portillo, my favourite living Tory, says Gove is a hero for doing what he did re Boris. Good enough for me.
Awful as identity politics is, a non white Tory leader could be a move?
Labour yes, up to a point. Partly the membership (now over 600K and rising) gives a useful floor - £10m/year or so, depending on what rates they pay. Partly the CLPs do a lot of self-funding - Broxtowe has raised enough money for both this and the next election, though I realise this is much harder in less prosperous areas.
But the megabucks that CCHQ has to spend on Facebook etc. are not there. Fortunately they turned out to be less effective than expected. It would be interesting to discuss why. FWIW, my theory is that internet ads are nearly always interrupted by users within seconds or left to run while the user flips to another window. What really worked for the Tories in 2015 was carefully-prepared microtargeting - George Smith at 17 Acacia Ave is worried about Scotland, let's send him a letter about that. With a snap election there was no time for that.
One other factor came into play with FB. In the run up to the second leadership election with the NEC and certain sections with in the LP exec. busy banning and punishing those with the temerity to speak out, many LP members and supporters went underground in Closed and Secret FB Groups.
After the re-election of Corbyn, many people stayed active in the groups, as we all fully expected the CCP to have another try, which according the news, was what was planned for later this year. (LOL! May saved the LP and Corbyn from another coup attempt)
Many were within 2 or so to provide connections and co-ordination, but never in more than 3 in case of infiltration by the CCP. Yes, in the groups I was involved in, several were exposed and promptly banned before they could get to the membership lists.
Quite probably that is why the LP Exec. had no idea what was really going on, on the ground.
And yes, I was a member of a couple, until I realised I was spending more time on FB than I was working, and I wanted to have food on my table.
IMHO any other solution will be [...] damaging to Brexit and, as such, catastrophic for us all.
You need to sleep on it again. A religious belief that Brexit must be pursued at all costs is not healthy.
Not at all. It's done now. I might regret jumping into the pit but I can't wish myself out of it. I decided to jump, and now I am in the pit. We must deal with reality as it is, not as we would wish it to be. And I can be described as many things but religious in word, intent or deed is not one of them. I'd bar anyone of faith from public office if I had my way.
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
SNIP
I don't think Boris would be as bad as you seem to think but he would be divisive and that would be fatal for what is now a minority government. We need all the (limited) talent on board for a very difficult job.
As the second most talented Tory politician (behind Cameron) of his generation Osborne is a serious loss and one of the first jobs of the next leader is to get him back on board. We had to watch ITV through the internet but it was well worth doing. His and Ed Balls contributions on election night were a completely different class from anyone else's.
After the first shock of that EXIT poll, the second one was when we discovered that it was no longer a simple task of accessing ITV via Sky when we discovered that STV were putting up their GE night coverage. But thanks to fitaloon we did eventually manage to access ITV coverage on the telly via the services and add channels options. Absolutely agree and well done to ITV for bagging Osborne and Balls, by far the most informative programme on the night.
Can't the Tories make George Osborne a lord then bring him back into government. Brown brought Mandelson back after all their internal disputes and he did a good job in helping that administration during a very difficult period.
Having slept for 12 hours and recovered from the drama I've calmed down from my anger at it all. Seems to me there's an obvious way forward, if anyone has the wit to make it happen. From the result it's clear the electorate do not approve either side having a majority and also have not provided a clear path to coalition of stability. We also know that 13 million on each side support the main party thrusts, and that the SNP remain the biggest player for Scotland and that LD and Plaid are relevant enough to have increased seats. Green politics is seen as niche but relevant enough that Lucas personal vote went up. I do not propose national government, I propose the agreement of a national programme and national Brexit task force. A programme to be made up of key proposals from both main sides and some issues of the minority parties. An agreed Brexit task force send strategy, national red lines. A new contract with the people, young and old. Run it all on cabinet government basis with a rainbow cabinet to the point of leaving the EU. Restore the faith of people in the establishment to understand the result given them. Then back to the country with each party's proposals to see if we want to give either or any majority rights. All non national programme issues to be debated and voted on free vote terms until the next majority government is elected. Let the opposition shoot it down if they want and not see part of their vision implemented.
IMHO any other solution will be damaging to the parties, damaging to stability, damaging to Brexit and, as such, catastrophic for us all. We've given our answer, they need to listen to it.
I think an all party commitee to supervise Brexit negotiations is the way forward. Negotiations proceeding in a non partisan matter would be an excellent plan. It means every party can air their concerns, but also binds everyone to the outcome.
Non Brexit business can be done in the usual partisan manner. No need for all politics to be subsumed.
Boris would be a nightmare. Michael Gove, when carrying out the most sensational knifing the Tory party has seen since Thatchers downfall, commented on how he didn't think Bojo had the qualities to be PM. It was a view that secretly some figures in the Tory Party shared. I hardly think he was acting without taking soundings from others.
It doesn't sound like a very good idea to out that person in charge when the party only needs say, 4'or 5 Tory MPs to vote against the government to give it a loss. That pool of MPs includes people such as Philip Davies, Mad Nad, the beast of Broxtowe, arch europhile Ken Clarke, Nicky 'Handbag' Morgan and Mr Bone.
Portillo, my favourite living Tory, says Gove is a hero for doing what he did re Boris. Good enough for me.
Awful as identity politics is, a non white Tory leader could be a move?
Can't the Tories make George Osborne a lord then bring him back into government. Brown brought Mandelson back after all their internal disputes and he did a good job in helping that administration during a very difficult period.
A Tory three line whip, promising hopeful candidacies to the dispossessed and concessions to the DUP, why not?
A Unionist from NI (Lucian Fletcher is I think the poster's name) posted on pb.com that the DUP would block the boundary changes because they are very bad for Unionists in NI.
The boundary changes 600 model is dead. Forget about it. Start a new process.
Now where's my poster of Theresa May with Ian Paisley senior in her top pocket.
The boundary review process is already well under way and a lot of money will have been spent on it. Do we really want to waste all that time, money and effort on scrapping it?
Not at all. It's done now. I might regret jumping into the pit but I can't wish myself out of it. I decided to jump, and now I am in the pit. We must deal with reality as it is, not as we would wish it to be.
The number of metaphors for the horror of Brexit continues to multiply, but to follow your example, we appear to have been presented with an opportunity to attempt to climb out of the pit, rather than merely select which spike we prefer to impale ourselves upon
A lot of pundits seem to be conveniently forgetting that Kensington was a top Labour target at the 1992 election after they almost won it at the 1988 by-election. I read somewhere that the Labour candidate in 1992 was "very disappointed" not to win it in 1992. If it was regarded as a marginal in 1988 and 1992 it can't really have changed into a "safe Tory seat" 25 years later given the demographic changes since then. (I know the current Kensington seat doesn't have exactly the same boundaries as the pre-1997 version).
Not to forget that a large part of it was in the safe Labour Regents Park and Kensington North constituency from 1997 to 2010.
Kensington now has probably less than a third of owner-occupiers and White British demographics plus a significant number of students.
There may be loads of foreign bankers and oligarchs in million pound houses but they don't vote. Nor do new built flats owned for investment purposes.
Its the same in Westminster North and Hampstead.
All of central London is trending away from the Conservatives.
Farage will surely contest the Thanet by election, should there be one. I wonder if there is a way back for UKIP? I think there is for Farage, but not convinced for the Kippers
Has anyone else other than Peston talked about a formal coalition with the DUP?
Won't happen. Ruth will collapse it. She's neither defending a UK seat nor living in England. She is devolved from both Westminster and whip concerns. She absolutely holds the power and wont cede that to the orange men she despises.
Boris would be a nightmare. Michael Gove, when carrying out the most sensational knifing the Tory party has seen since Thatchers downfall, commented on how he didn't think Bojo had the qualities to be PM. It was a view that secretly some figures in the Tory Party shared. I hardly think he was acting without taking soundings from others.
It doesn't sound like a very good idea to out that person in charge when the party only needs say, 4'or 5 Tory MPs to vote against the government to give it a loss. That pool of MPs includes people such as Philip Davies, Mad Nad, the beast of Broxtowe, arch europhile Ken Clarke, Nicky 'Handbag' Morgan and Mr Bone.
Portillo, my favourite living Tory, says Gove is a hero for doing what he did re Boris. Good enough for me.
Awful as identity politics is, a non white Tory leader could be a move?
Thing is, if Boris had been PM with Gove as Chancellor/DPM, we know who would have really been running the country, and the government would have a charismatic, popular figurehead.
Instead we have Theresa May, who I've belatedly realised is mediocre.
It is clear that the Tories have twice gambled the nation's future for party advantage, and have lost both times. It's unclear to me whether the electorate will ever trust the party again, and it is fundamentally a party based on credibility and trust. The Tories could finished for a generation or more, and fully deserve to be.
What a mess we are in. What, exactly, has this party "conserved"?
Qriuosly is interesting and got joint closest to the result. I believe they use SMS text polls to their panels. Maybe worth a peek for polling companies that struggle to reach representative samples. I can imagine a quick response to a text is less off-putting than filling in multiple page questionnaires
Boris would be a nightmare. Michael Gove, when carrying out the most sensational knifing the Tory party has seen since Thatchers downfall, commented on how he didn't think Bojo had the qualities to be PM. It was a view that secretly some figures in the Tory Party shared. I hardly think he was acting without taking soundings from others.
It doesn't sound like a very good idea to out that person in charge when the party only needs say, 4'or 5 Tory MPs to vote against the government to give it a loss. That pool of MPs includes people such as Philip Davies, Mad Nad, the beast of Broxtowe, arch europhile Ken Clarke, Nicky 'Handbag' Morgan and Mr Bone.
Whatever his faults, Boris is a proven campaign winner, debater, and populist. He's flexible, can lie just as well as Corbyn, and would never put anything as suicidally voter-repellent in a manifesto as the dementia tax.
With Boris, the Tories _may_ win next time. With any other major Tory, we probably won't. I'd also be happy with Rory Stewart or some other younger MP with a personality and a brain, but it may not be practical to parachute a junior figure in as Prime Minister.
Comments
But then I find Ciri and Alexa creepy, and the idea that people welcome the idea of electronic devices recording everything they say somewhat alarming.
Crucially, Labour need to broaden their attacks on the tory brand and resist focussing on ousting TM. That's a trap. Assume she's going to be gone in 3 months.
They also need to figure out why they came so close to winning a pile of seats they weren't expecting to.
Just look at the scotland results.
Almost winning - without putting resources in - indicates the national campaign was dysfunctional, despite its apparent success.
If Theresa The House Stealer hadn't threatened to take away pensioner's WFA and steal their houses the Conservatives would have ended up with at least the same majority as Cameron got and may even have increased it a bit...
Now where's my poster of Theresa May with Ian Paisley senior in her top pocket.
*sighs*
Now we have the hard left strengthened and a very uncertain future.
Consider you were a Brexit supporter in this election (and probably one who favoured prioritsing immigration over single market access) and you believed that Brexit was settled as an issue and you could vote for other reasons. And then the election happens and suddenly you see remainers in the ascendent, people saying that there is no mandate for anything but the softest Brexit, may be even Brexit itself is in danger. That a change of leadership may lead to another election and an inevitable delay in Brexit negotiations.
Do you think that possibly your conclusion at the end of all this (outside the politics bubble) is that May should stay on and face down her critics. And given that many people may have voted Labour because they saw Corbyn as no threat may now be reassessing. So the polls may still show her as preferred PM to Corbyn, and inevitably will show her as preferred PM to Conservative alternatives.
The fact that people on here are suggesting that had Osborne not left Parliament he would be PM by Monday, just shows how out of touch with reality many on here are with the wider country.
Just a few thoughts...
Corbyn didn't win. They are not in Government. Almost every other opposition leader having failed to win a majority, resigns. We know that is not Corbyn's style, but they need to do something. He's still crap. If May is replaced by someone human, PMQs will still be a bloodbath every week
Mr. 09, yeah, when I was flitting through the numbers the other day Wales stood out as a place the blues went backwards when they should've been making gains.
Ruth had the same discussion, and we know the result...
I suggest Theresa sends her new DUP chums in to the intial negotiations. Arlene can stare him down and say No to everything. They'll be begging for Davis and Fox to come back.
I've always thought there's just a touch of the scorpion and the frog about Osborne, however much I appreciate his talents.
I should never have posted about the cricket... England two down for not very much. And Roy fails yet again.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9895#comments
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/how-have-the-polls-changed-since-2015/
https://sotonpolitics.org/2017/05/31/polling-observatory-campaign-report-3-all-changed-changed-utterly/
And this one is also interesting:
https://sotonpolitics.org/2017/06/04/will-turnout-weighting-prove-to-be-the-pollsters-achilles-heel-in-ge2017/
The Tory campaign in Scotland was everything that the Theresa May campaign was not. It focussed on local issues. It saw Brexit as providing opportunities but risks as well and above all it focussed on a one nation Tory party. There was no glorification of Ruth Davidson but she was everywhere she could be on TV, radio, canvassing and social media. Ruth understands twitter in a way that Theresa May never will.
The public may well wish her to carry on tonight's polls - The British are a fair bunch and won't wish to be overtly nasty to her. But in the end her credibility is shot not just with her own party but also with the wider electorate (whether the acknowledge it or not) and also with the people we'll be negotiating with in ten days time.
It's the same situation as with Cameron last June. The public would have liked him to carry on as PM... But after losing the referendum he was done - And to his credit he realized it straight the way.
As the second most talented Tory politician (behind Cameron) of his generation Osborne is a serious loss and one of the first jobs of the next leader is to get him back on board. We had to watch ITV through the internet but it was well worth doing. His and Ed Balls contributions on election night were a completely different class from anyone else's.
Will do bank transfer if your A/c details are the same.
The jokey wind up tweets are not what we need at the moment.
Now you know she is so weak she can't choose any of her staff, do you really want to send her into Brussels?
I wonder how Mr Evans will get on with his new coalition partners, intolerant bigots that they are.
Same details indeed
I suspect that hit the Conservatives in the middle class north while dementia was more damaging in the middle class south.
To say there was fury would be an understatement.
Seems to me there's an obvious way forward, if anyone has the wit to make it happen.
From the result it's clear the electorate do not approve either side having a majority and also have not provided a clear path to coalition of stability. We also know that 13 million on each side support the main party thrusts, and that the SNP remain the biggest player for Scotland and that LD and Plaid are relevant enough to have increased seats. Green politics is seen as niche but relevant enough that Lucas personal vote went up. I do not propose national government, I propose the agreement of a national programme and national Brexit task force. A programme to be made up of key proposals from both main sides and some issues of the minority parties. An agreed Brexit task force send strategy, national red lines. A new contract with the people, young and old. Run it all on cabinet government basis with a rainbow cabinet to the point of leaving the EU. Restore the faith of people in the establishment to understand the result given them. Then back to the country with each party's proposals to see if we want to give either or any majority rights. All non national programme issues to be debated and voted on free vote terms until the next majority government is elected.
Let the opposition shoot it down if they want and not see part of their vision implemented.
IMHO any other solution will be damaging to the parties, damaging to stability, damaging to Brexit and, as such, catastrophic for us all. We've given our answer, they need to listen to it.
Theresa May in an Orange Man's suit pocket.
It doesn't sound like a very good idea to out that person in charge when the party only needs say, 4'or 5 Tory MPs to vote against the government to give it a loss. That pool of MPs includes people such as Philip Davies, Mad Nad, the beast of Broxtowe, arch europhile Ken Clarke, Nicky 'Handbag' Morgan and Mr Bone.
This is what happens when the nutters win.
If you are a Brexiteer, it makes sense. Everyone working for the best possible version of Brexit, prepared to debate and agree (and hope Brussels agrees)
Maybe that's what the country wants too
But, if you take the view that Brexit is a bad idea, if we have driven over the edge of a cliff, organising a committe on the bus to debate how quickly the ground is approaching in the end doesn't help much
Awful as identity politics is, a non white Tory leader could be a move?
After the re-election of Corbyn, many people stayed active in the groups, as we all fully expected the CCP to have another try, which according the news, was what was planned for later this year. (LOL! May saved the LP and Corbyn from another coup attempt)
Many were within 2 or so to provide connections and co-ordination, but never in more than 3 in case of infiltration by the CCP. Yes, in the groups I was involved in, several were exposed and promptly banned before they could get to the membership lists.
Quite probably that is why the LP Exec. had no idea what was really going on, on the ground.
And yes, I was a member of a couple, until I realised I was spending more time on FB than I was working, and I wanted to have food on my table.
And I can be described as many things but religious in word, intent or deed is not one of them. I'd bar anyone of faith from public office if I had my way.
After the first shock of that EXIT poll, the second one was when we discovered that it was no longer a simple task of accessing ITV via Sky when we discovered that STV were putting up their GE night coverage. But thanks to fitaloon we did eventually manage to access ITV coverage on the telly via the services and add channels options.
Non Brexit business can be done in the usual partisan manner. No need for all politics to be subsumed.
Jezza: When will the Prime Minister resign?
Tezzie: You need to be careful. I've got some friends in Belfast, if you know what I'm saying?
http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/statement-on-the-general-election-updated-9-june-2017/
http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2018-review/
Kensington now has probably less than a third of owner-occupiers and White British demographics plus a significant number of students.
There may be loads of foreign bankers and oligarchs in million pound houses but they don't vote. Nor do new built flats owned for investment purposes.
Its the same in Westminster North and Hampstead.
All of central London is trending away from the Conservatives.
Instead we have Theresa May, who I've belatedly realised is mediocre.
What a mess we are in. What, exactly, has this party "conserved"?
(Make Corbyn responsible for keeping her in power
With Boris, the Tories _may_ win next time. With any other major Tory, we probably won't. I'd also be happy with Rory Stewart or some other younger MP with a personality and a brain, but it may not be practical to parachute a junior figure in as Prime Minister.