Not at all. It's done now. I might regret jumping into the pit but I can't wish myself out of it. I decided to jump, and now I am in the pit. We must deal with reality as it is, not as we would wish it to be.
The number of metaphors for the horror of Brexit continues to multiply, but to follow your example, we appear to have been presented with an opportunity to attempt to climb out of the pit, rather than merely select which spike we prefer to impale ourselves upon
Are you still predicting a recession from this quarter onwards ?
We're still waiting for the punishment budget and stock market crash you promised us.
@iankatz1000: One Tory source tells me May must make some cabinet changes to show she still has authority. Another says she lacks authority to sack anyone
Has anyone else other than Peston talked about a formal coalition with the DUP?
Won't happen. Ruth will collapse it. She's neither defending a UK seat nor living in England. She is devolved from both Westminster and whip concerns. She absolutely holds the power and wont cede that to the orange men she despises.
@iankatz1000: One Tory source tells me May must make some cabinet changes to show she still has authority. Another says she lacks authority to sack anyone
With Boris, the Tories _may_ win next time. With any other major Tory, we probably won't. I'd also be happy with Rory Stewart or some other younger MP with a personality and a brain, but it may not be practical to parachute a junior figure in as Prime Minister.
I don't see why not - they would be well supported and a talented backbencher stepping up would be a chance for renewal after 7 years pf government rather than an inevitable slide towards opposition.
Why would the DUP want to go into an official coalition with the Tories? Do they think the "smaller partner in a coalition always gets screwed" rule won't apply to them?
So, the author of the quiet, bat people manifesto has gone.
Fiona Hill must be pretty annoyed to say the least that she had to go because he colleague insisted, against her advice, to put the Dementia Tax in the manifesto.
Can't the Tories make George Osborne a lord then bring him back into government. Brown brought Mandelson back after all their internal disputes and he did a good job in helping that administration during a very difficult period.
That would be democratic.
You could then make him PM like Lord Alec Douglas Home. Lord George Osborne.
A Tory three line whip, promising hopeful candidacies to the dispossessed and concessions to the DUP, why not?
A Unionist from NI (Lucian Fletcher is I think the poster's name) posted on pb.com that the DUP would block the boundary changes because they are very bad for Unionists in NI.
The boundary changes 600 model is dead. Forget about it. Start a new process.
Now where's my poster of Theresa May with Ian Paisley senior in her top pocket.
The boundary review process is already well under way and a lot of money will have been spent on it. Do we really want to waste all that time, money and effort on scrapping it?
My last remaining Tory Westminster contact has phoned me. He says it is election fever among Tory MPs and May will resign on Monday. His Minister (it should be said a potential leadership candidate) has told him to "get the word out" that the BDW (bloody difficult woman) is going.
Surely, after she has had another nights sleep she will realise her political career is over. It would not surprise me if she announces she is going in the next 24 hours as her position as PM is completely untenable. TM is basically shit and unstable!
@TomMcTague: What Theresa May has lost in 7 weeks: Comms director, press secretary, both chiefs of staff, Tory majority, personal authority. No 10 gutted
In the long run it's immensely positive for us as a nation that it was a humiliation meted out in a democratic British election rather than as a result of being found out by Brussels. It gives us chance to rethink the direction we've chosen.
Yes. The only thing that worries me is that some on Continent have already decided on enforcing this humilation now, as a result of the lunacy of last year, and we may have less room to manoeuvre than we might like.
Humiliating Britain has always been the policy of the EU, whether inside or not.
Surely there comes a point over this weekend that, on her own and isolated, she thinks 'I can't do this'? She must realise this will be unbearably strained every day, every debate, every meeting from now until it collapses? Tories may be afraid of doing worse in another election but the longer it's delayed the more the resentment sinks in. The 4 year death of majors Tory party led to 13 years in the wilderness. Take the hit now and they might be back before they know it
My last remaining Tory Westminster contact has phoned me. He says it is election fever among Tory MPs and May will resign on Monday. His Minister (it should be said a potential leadership candidate) has told him to "get the word out" that the BDW (bloody difficult woman) is going.
She certainly is. However that article just says formal written agreement - surely that could include a formalised confidence and supply arrangement? It seems unlikely that the DUP are going to end up around the Cabinet table.
I am leaning towards the view that the best thing for the UK to do is let Theresa / the Tories stay in power for as long as they can and in doing so try and pursue Brexit with no parliamentary majority, and scuppered by the DUP.
Public opinion will move against the conservatives and the version of Brexit they are pursuing as the economic consequences are felt (indeed, the election result itself is a strong signal that of the direction of travel).
We can then arrive at a more sensible and realistic position, ie an EEA type arrangement with some sort of Emergency brake plus on free movement. IE a position that would be endorsed by probably 60 - 65% of people in the UK and the one we should have always gone for.
Not sure what will happen to Labour in the meantime, and how they will fit in to these plans. I don't think they can elect a leader from the moderate wing of the party. Starmer or Thornberry might be in play as proven Corbyn allies.
Is there actually some sort of advantage for either the tories or the DUP to have a formal coalition? I am trying but I really can't see how that is at all an ideal solution for either party.
Shambolic - May will destroy the tories reputation for competence just like Major after Black Wednesday. Labour just need to neutralise the security and defence questions around them and they will win the next election.
It is clear that the Tories have twice gambled the nation's future for party advantage, and have lost both times. It's unclear to me whether the electorate will ever trust the party again, and it is fundamentally a party based on credibility and trust. The Tories could finished for a generation or more, and fully deserve to be.
What a mess we are in. What, exactly, has this party "conserved"?
People (well mainly fools) were saying the Tories will never win another majority after the 2010 general election. The Tories will outlast any of their critics.
@TomMcTague: What Theresa May has lost in 7 weeks: Comms director, press secretary, both chiefs of staff, Tory majority, personal authority. No 10 gutted
In the long run it's immensely positive for us as a nation that it was a humiliation meted out in a democratic British election rather than as a result of being found out by Brussels. It gives us chance to rethink the direction we've chosen.
Yes. The only thing that worries me is that some on Continent have already decided on enforcing this humilation now, as a result of the lunacy of last year, and we may have less room to manoeuvre than we might like.
Humiliating Britain has always been the policy of the EU, whether inside or not.
Why would the DUP want to go into an official coalition with the Tories? Do they think the "smaller partner in a coalition always gets screwed" rule won't apply to them?
As they see it they ARE unionism as SF are republicanism. They see it now as well superpowers with permanent hegemony over their side of the divide. UUP shows how that works out.
Can't the Tories make George Osborne a lord then bring him back into government. Brown brought Mandelson back after all their internal disputes and he did a good job in helping that administration during a very difficult period.
That would be democratic.
You could then make him PM like Lord Alec Douglas Home. Lord George Osborne.
It's not Machiavellian enough. They should skip Osborne and go directly to Lord Mandelson, making him PM from the Lords. Say that they've seen the wave of support for Labour and need a unity figure to bridge the divide.
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
SNIP
I don't think Boris would be as bad as you seem to think but he would be divisive and that would be fatal for what is now a minority government. We need all the (limited) talent on board for a very difficult job.
As the second most talented Tory politician (behind Cameron) of his generation Osborne is a serious loss and one of the first jobs of the next leader is to get him back on board. We had to watch ITV through the internet but it was well worth doing. His and Ed Balls contributions on election night were a completely different class from anyone else's.
After the first shock of that EXIT poll, the second one was when we discovered that it was no longer a simple task of accessing ITV via Sky when we discovered that STV were putting up their GE night coverage. But thanks to fitaloon we did eventually manage to access ITV coverage on the telly via the services and add channels options. Absolutely agree and well done to ITV for bagging Osborne and Balls, by far the most informative programme on the night.
If Osborne doesn't have enough jobs he should become a thread writer on PB.
She certainly is. However that article just says formal written agreement - surely that could include a formalised confidence and supply arrangement? It seems unlikely that the DUP are going to end up around the Cabinet table.
A few PBers said on day one of May's premiership that she was a Tory Gordon Brown.
My last remaining Tory Westminster contact has phoned me. He says it is election fever among Tory MPs and May will resign on Monday. His Minister (it should be said a potential leadership candidate) has told him to "get the word out" that the BDW (bloody difficult woman) is going.
People (well mainly fools) were saying the Tories will never win another majority after the 2010 general election. The Tories will outlast any of their critics.
The Tories survive by ruthlessly cutting electoral deadwood.
Why would the DUP want to go into an official coalition with the Tories? Do they think the "smaller partner in a coalition always gets screwed" rule won't apply to them?
Strangely I think the reverse is true. Ulster is a different world away much as Scotland is.
The Conservatives would be mad to go into a formal coalition with the DUP. Utterly utterly bonkers.
Farage will surely contest the Thanet by election, should there be one. I wonder if there is a way back for UKIP? I think there is for Farage, but not convinced for the Kippers
Soft Brexit would take us back to 2014.
Do you think so? I think that depends on the first post Brexit manifestos. If they are all pro EU etc as you were then yes I suppose so
My last remaining Tory Westminster contact has phoned me. He says it is election fever among Tory MPs and May will resign on Monday. His Minister (it should be said a potential leadership candidate) has told him to "get the word out" that the BDW (bloody difficult woman) is going.
Let's see who has the better contacts. Maybe you can redeem your reputation?
@PaulBrandITV: Spoke to one senior MP today who says May is definitely safe in short term. He's spoken to 23 colleagues none of whom want a challenge.
It is clear that the Tories have twice gambled the nation's future for party advantage, and have lost both times. It's unclear to me whether the electorate will ever trust the party again, and it is fundamentally a party based on credibility and trust. The Tories could finished for a generation or more, and fully deserve to be.
What a mess we are in. What, exactly, has this party "conserved"?
People (well mainly fools) were saying the Tories will never win another majority after the 2010 general election. The Tories will outlast any of their critics.
They will the most pragmatic and ruthless to keep power .Surprised they are taking so long to sack a leader after loosing a majority government . Not like them to be so gracious .
She certainly is. However that article just says formal written agreement - surely that could include a formalised confidence and supply arrangement? It seems unlikely that the DUP are going to end up around the Cabinet table.
A few PBers said on day one of May's premiership that she was a Tory Gordon Brown.
That was grossly unfair on Brown.
She is in another league of her own.
Back in July I compared her to Gordon Brown - mediocre performance in a senior Cabinet role, becoming leader via coronation rather than competition. I regret ever changing that view, it was vindicated on Thursday.
I am leaning towards the view that the best thing for the UK to do is let Theresa / the Tories stay in power for as long as they can and in doing so try and pursue Brexit with no parliamentary majority, and scuppered by the DUP.
Public opinion will move against the conservatives and the version of Brexit they are pursuing as the economic consequences are felt (indeed, the election result itself is a strong signal that of the direction of travel).
We can then arrive at a more sensible and realistic position, ie an EEA type arrangement with some sort of Emergency brake plus on free movement. IE a position that would be endorsed by probably 60 - 65% of people in the UK and the one we should have always gone for.
Not sure what will happen to Labour in the meantime, and how they will fit in to these plans. I don't think they can elect a leader from the moderate wing of the party. Starmer or Thornberry might be in play as proven Corbyn allies.
And you think the economic problems will then disappear ?
The UK has a had a trade deficit every consecutive month for almost twenty years, stagnant productivity, falling home ownership, increasing debt and so on.
Globalisation and the changes it has brought isn't going away. Nor are people's expectations of growing richer and politicians willingness to offer unaffordable promises.
All this talk of Labour's vote being inefficient reminds me of "the Democrats have an advantage in the EC", it's all nonsense ofcourse, the coalition of voters change reguarly at elections.
Interesting to look at the eight Con gains from Lab in 2015.
- Derby North, Gower and Vale of Clwyd: lost quite badly to Lab; - Morley & Outwood and Plymouth Moor View: substantially increased Con majority; - Bolton West and Telford: basically a repeat of 2015; - Southampton Itchen: vastly reduced Con majority.
Also look at Warwickshire North - hyper-marginal in 2010, 6-point cushion in 2015, 18-point lead in 2017. Quite a contrast to Warwick & Leamington.
I am leaning towards the view that the best thing for the UK to do is let Theresa / the Tories stay in power for as long as they can and in doing so try and pursue Brexit with no parliamentary majority, and scuppered by the DUP.
Public opinion will move against the conservatives and the version of Brexit they are pursuing as the economic consequences are felt (indeed, the election result itself is a strong signal that of the direction of travel).
We can then arrive at a more sensible and realistic position, ie an EEA type arrangement with some sort of Emergency brake plus on free movement. IE a position that would be endorsed by probably 60 - 65% of people in the UK and the one we should have always gone for.
Not sure what will happen to Labour in the meantime, and how they will fit in to these plans. I don't think they can elect a leader from the moderate wing of the party. Starmer or Thornberry might be in play as proven Corbyn allies.
That process will be short-circuited once May is gone imo. Policy will move swiftly to an EFTA / EEA solution. The hardliners will squeel about it but will be told that TINA.
Globalisation and the changes it has brought isn't going away. Nor are people's expectations of growing richer and politicians willingness to offer unaffordable promises.
Unaffordable promises like offering people unlimited sovereignty at no cost to the economy, British influence or political stability?
They will the most pragmatic and ruthless to keep power .Surprised they are taking so long to sack a leader after loosing a majority government . Not like them to be so gracious .
Not that I know anything about what is going on but I would expect that the grandees want it to be co-ordinated and not chaotic. There have been enough half-baked plots already this year.
Boris would be a nightmare. Michael Gove, when carrying out the most sensational knifing the Tory party has seen since Thatchers downfall, commented on how he didn't think Bojo had the qualities to be PM. It was a view that secretly some figures in the Tory Party shared. I hardly think he was acting without taking soundings from others.
It doesn't sound like a very good idea to out that person in charge when the party only needs say, 4'or 5 Tory MPs to vote against the government to give it a loss. That pool of MPs includes people such as Philip Davies, Mad Nad, the beast of Broxtowe, arch europhile Ken Clarke, Nicky 'Handbag' Morgan and Mr Bone.
Whatever his faults, Boris is a proven campaign winner, debater, and populist. He's flexible, can lie just as well as Corbyn, and would never put anything as suicidally voter-repellent in a manifesto as the dementia tax.
With Boris, the Tories _may_ win next time. With any other major Tory, we probably won't. I'd also be happy with Rory Stewart or some other younger MP with a personality and a brain, but it may not be practical to parachute a junior figure in as Prime Minister.
Surely it isn't the right time for a character like Mr Johnson? If one looks at the front bench for Mrs May's successor Mr Hammond or Ms Rudd seem less incendiary than the other options when it comes to negotiating with the EU.
Mr Johnson has almost as much baggage of one sort or another to Corbyn, however he lacks Corbyn's apparent humility.
Sticking with Mrs May until someone comes up with a plan seems most appropriate. If the answer is 'Boris' it was a pretty stupid question!
I am leaning towards the view that the best thing for the UK to do is let Theresa / the Tories stay in power for as long as they can and in doing so try and pursue Brexit with no parliamentary majority, and scuppered by the DUP.
Public opinion will move against the conservatives and the version of Brexit they are pursuing as the economic consequences are felt (indeed, the election result itself is a strong signal that of the direction of travel).
We can then arrive at a more sensible and realistic position, ie an EEA type arrangement with some sort of Emergency brake plus on free movement. IE a position that would be endorsed by probably 60 - 65% of people in the UK and the one we should have always gone for.
Not sure what will happen to Labour in the meantime, and how they will fit in to these plans. I don't think they can elect a leader from the moderate wing of the party. Starmer or Thornberry might be in play as proven Corbyn allies.
And you think the economic problems will then disappear ?
The UK has a had a trade deficit every consecutive month for almost twenty years, stagnant productivity, falling home ownership, increasing debt and so on.
Globalisation and the changes it has brought isn't going away. Nor are people's expectations of growing richer and politicians willingness to offer unaffordable promises.
Of course these problems aren't going to go away - the point though is that they are seperable to some extent from what we do about Brexit. There are essentially two intractable problems, the economy (specifically the deficit and public spending) and Brexit. Unfortunately, the latter tends to exacerbate the former.
She certainly is. However that article just says formal written agreement - surely that could include a formalised confidence and supply arrangement? It seems unlikely that the DUP are going to end up around the Cabinet table.
A few PBers said on day one of May's premiership that she was a Tory Gordon Brown.
That was grossly unfair on Brown.
She is in another league of her own.
Back in July I compared her to Gordon Brown - mediocre performance in a senior Cabinet role, becoming leader via coronation rather than competition. I regret ever changing that view, it was vindicated on Thursday.
It is unfair on Brown, who I have a lot of time for. For a start he was a brilliant performer in Opposition days under John Smith, harrying the government at every turn and then building New Labour with TB and writing an iron-proof manifesto.
Cabinet source says impossible to have leadership race with Brexit clock ticking as would take 2-3 months so only option is for PM to dig in
This may be so. The best option is for May to do an Abbott and take a leave of absence, remaining as leader, but allowing a triumvirate of Davis, Hammond and Johnson to run the show. Later, there would be a leadership election between these three.
I am leaning towards the view that the best thing for the UK to do is let Theresa / the Tories stay in power for as long as they can and in doing so try and pursue Brexit with no parliamentary majority, and scuppered by the DUP.
Public opinion will move against the conservatives and the version of Brexit they are pursuing as the economic consequences are felt (indeed, the election result itself is a strong signal that of the direction of travel).
We can then arrive at a more sensible and realistic position, ie an EEA type arrangement with some sort of Emergency brake plus on free movement. IE a position that would be endorsed by probably 60 - 65% of people in the UK and the one we should have always gone for.
Not sure what will happen to Labour in the meantime, and how they will fit in to these plans. I don't think they can elect a leader from the moderate wing of the party. Starmer or Thornberry might be in play as proven Corbyn allies.
That process will be short-circuited once May is gone imo. Policy will move swiftly to an EFTA / EEA solution. The hardliners will squeel about it but will be told that TINA.
They need to go back to some sort of Flexcit off the shelf solution.. But politically this has to be negotiated without it appearing to be a betrayal of the original decision. It may be that Boris is the best person to perform that manouevre.
It is clear that the Tories have twice gambled the nation's future for party advantage, and have lost both times. It's unclear to me whether the electorate will ever trust the party again, and it is fundamentally a party based on credibility and trust. The Tories could finished for a generation or more, and fully deserve to be.
What a mess we are in. What, exactly, has this party "conserved"?
Its a bloody mess... But lets not forget the Tories did get 42% of the vote (after everyone saying they would never get 40%+ of the vote again) and in 2015 they secured a majority (after everyone saying they would never secure a majority again) and they survived the Blair years (after everyone saying 1997 and 2001 was unrecoverable)
In the end the Conservative Party endures and adapts and survives. It's what they do...
That process will be short-circuited once May is gone imo. Policy will move swiftly to an EFTA / EEA solution. The hardliners will squeel about it but will be told that TINA.
I personally favour any exit from the EU including more or less crashing out, but I totally accept that politically we need something that will find support if not delight from as many people as possible. Right now EFTA looks like the best bet to me. At the very least it now needs serious consideration from all party leaders.
My last remaining Tory Westminster contact has phoned me. He says it is election fever among Tory MPs and May will resign on Monday. His Minister (it should be said a potential leadership candidate) has told him to "get the word out" that the BDW (bloody difficult woman) is going.
If the Conservative MPs all saw Mrs May as "that bloody difficult woman", how did it happen that they elected her as their leader in the first place? Didn`t they stop to think what they were dong?
Can't the Tories make George Osborne a lord then bring him back into government. Brown brought Mandelson back after all their internal disputes and he did a good job in helping that administration during a very difficult period.
That would be democratic.
You could then make him PM like Lord Alec Douglas Home. Lord George Osborne.
It's not Machiavellian enough. They should skip Osborne and go directly to Lord Mandelson, making him PM from the Lords. Say that they've seen the wave of support for Labour and need a unity figure to bridge the divide.
Maybe that is going to far but they could make him chief Brexit person for negotiations .They could say this was due to his previous experience in Europe and government and trying to bring cross party consensus.Lord Mandelson similar to when the Blair government had Chris Patten in.Hong Kong.Widen the process out.
@TomMcTague: What Theresa May has lost in 7 weeks: Comms director, press secretary, both chiefs of staff, Tory majority, personal authority. No 10 gutted
In the long run it's immensely positive for us as a nation that it was a humiliation meted out in a democratic British election rather than as a result of being found out by Brussels. It gives us chance to rethink the direction we've chosen.
Yes. The only thing that worries me is that some on Continent have already decided on enforcing this humilation now, as a result of the lunacy of last year, and we may have less room to manoeuvre than we might like.
Humiliating Britain has always been the policy of the EU, whether inside or not.
You really have a massive complex, don't you?
No, just a cold analysis of the historical facts.
For example, the negotiating failures which Blair, Brown and Cameron all had with the EU.
On a different issue did you expect Labour to do so well in the Wandsworth constituencies ? Owen Jones was desperately tweeting for GOTV help in Tooting so he obviously didn't. If the Conservatives are still in government next May they might lose control of Wandsworth council.
And did you go for the 7/2 Labour to win Westminster North which I tipped ?
Is there actually some sort of advantage for either the tories or the DUP to have a formal coalition? I am trying but I really can't see how that is at all an ideal solution for either party.
Shambolic - May will destroy the tories reputation for competence just like Major after Black Wednesday. Labour just need to neutralise the security and defence questions around them and they will win the next election.
Labour just need to neutralise the security and defence questions around them and they will win the next election.
That's a bit like saying the sea just needs to neutralise the wetness and saltiness questions around it...
Cabinet source says impossible to have leadership race with Brexit clock ticking as would take 2-3 months so only option is for PM to dig in
I'm not sure why a leadership race HAS to take 2-3 months. And anyway the solution is surely for May to go, Davis to become interim leader and begin the Brexit negotiations he would have been leading as Brexit secretary anyway?
Remember these are just preliminary talks. Nothing is actually going to get done until after the German election in September so we do still have a window.
Boris would be a nightmare. Michael Gove, when carrying out the most sensational knifing the Tory party has seen since Thatchers downfall, commented on how he didn't think Bojo had the qualities to be PM. It was a view that secretly some figures in the Tory Party shared. I hardly think he was acting without taking soundings from others.
It doesn't sound like a very good idea to out that person in charge when the party only needs say, 4'or 5 Tory MPs to vote against the government to give it a loss. That pool of MPs includes people such as Philip Davies, Mad Nad, the beast of Broxtowe, arch europhile Ken Clarke, Nicky 'Handbag' Morgan and Mr Bone.
Whatever his faults, Boris is a proven campaign winner, debater, and populist. He's flexible, can lie just as well as Corbyn, and would never put anything as suicidally voter-repellent in a manifesto as the dementia tax.
With Boris, the Tories _may_ win next time. With any other major Tory, we probably won't. I'd also be happy with Rory Stewart or some other younger MP with a personality and a brain, but it may not be practical to parachute a junior figure in as Prime Minister.
Surely it isn't the right time for a character like Mr Johnson? If one looks at the front bench for Mrs May's successor Mr Hammond or Ms Rudd seem less incendiary than the other options when it comes to negotiating with the EU.
Mr Johnson has almost as much baggage of one sort or another to Corbyn, however he lacks Corbyn's apparent humility.
Sticking with Mrs May until someone comes up with a plan seems most appropriate. If the answer is 'Boris' it was a pretty stupid question!
If the Tory party sees sense it has to be a Remainer who is not grey (literally and presentationally). ie it's Rudd. They cannot operate with any Leaver in charge because that ship has sailed and they will give Lab a majority at the very next opportunity. It has to be a Remainer who will "listen to" the various interests of both Leave and Remain. How many times to the Cons need telling.
That said, when have some Cons backbenchers seen sense?
Today my anger is mostly directed at Chloe Smith who stubbornly held on by 500 to deny my sexy 12s tip. Norwich trending left will always be the story of elections. The city council has never been anything but blood red. Tories in general will only win Norwich North in upswing elections. She did well to cling on tbf.
My last remaining Tory Westminster contact has phoned me. He says it is election fever among Tory MPs and May will resign on Monday. His Minister (it should be said a potential leadership candidate) has told him to "get the word out" that the BDW (bloody difficult woman) is going.
If the Conservative MPs all saw Mrs May as "that bloody difficult woman", how did it happen that they elected her as their leader in the first place? Didn`t they stop to think what they were dong?
Boris to take his vision of Britain to the country in a month's time?
@TomMcTague: What Theresa May has lost in 7 weeks: Comms director, press secretary, both chiefs of staff, Tory majority, personal authority. No 10 gutted
In the long run it's immensely positive for us as a nation that it was a humiliation meted out in a democratic British election rather than as a result of being found out by Brussels. It gives us chance to rethink the direction we've chosen.
Yes. The only thing that worries me is that some on Continent have already decided on enforcing this humilation now, as a result of the lunacy of last year, and we may have less room to manoeuvre than we might like.
Humiliating Britain has always been the policy of the EU, whether inside or not.
You really have a massive complex, don't you?
No, just a cold analysis of the historical facts.
For example, the negotiating failures which Blair, Brown and Cameron all had with the EU.
On a different issue did you expect Labour to do so well in the Wandsworth constituencies ? Owen Jones was desperately tweeting for GOTV help in Tooting so he obviously didn't. If the Conservatives are still in government next May they might lose control of Wandsworth council.
And did you go for the 7/2 Labour to win Westminster North which I tipped ?
I followed you in on Westminster North. I also had Ealing Central and Acton, Harrow West and Enfield North.
@lewis_goodall: Make up lady seen going into Downing St. Could the reason we've heard nothing about reshuffle be because PM about to reshuffle herself?
Cabinet source says impossible to have leadership race with Brexit clock ticking as would take 2-3 months so only option is for PM to dig in
I'm not sure why a leadership race HAS to take 2-3 months. And anyway the solution is surely for May to go, Davis to become interim leader and begin the Brexit negotiations he would be been leading as Brexit secretary anyway?
Remember these are just preliminary talks. Nothing is actually going to get done until after the German election in September so we do still have a window.
The last leadership election took 2 to 3 weeks, not months.
It is clear that the Tories have twice gambled the nation's future for party advantage, and have lost both times. It's unclear to me whether the electorate will ever trust the party again, and it is fundamentally a party based on credibility and trust. The Tories could finished for a generation or more, and fully deserve to be.
What a mess we are in. What, exactly, has this party "conserved"?
People (well mainly fools) were saying the Tories will never win another majority after the 2010 general election. The Tories will outlast any of their critics.
Today my anger is mostly directed at Chloe Smith who stubbornly held on by 500 to deny my sexy 12s tip. Norwich trending left will always be the story of elections. The city council has never been anything but blood red. Tories in general will only win Norwich North in upswing elections. She did well to cling on tbf.
Cabinet source says impossible to have leadership race with Brexit clock ticking as would take 2-3 months so only option is for PM to dig in
I'm not sure why a leadership race HAS to take 2-3 months. And anyway the solution is surely for May to go, Davis to become interim leader and begin the Brexit negotiations he would be been leading as Brexit secretary anyway?
Remember these are just preliminary talks. Nothing is actually going to get done until after the German election in September so we do still have a window.
Yeah, and how much negotiation was the PM actually going to be doing herself?
Is there actually some sort of advantage for either the tories or the DUP to have a formal coalition? I am trying but I really can't see how that is at all an ideal solution for either party.
Shambolic - May will destroy the tories reputation for competence just like Major after Black Wednesday. Labour just need to neutralise the security and defence questions around them and they will win the next election.
Labour just need to neutralise the security and defence questions around them and they will win the next election.
That's a bit like saying the sea just needs to neutralise the wetness and saltiness questions around it...
err - there are huge questions on them over the economy too
Cabinet source says impossible to have leadership race with Brexit clock ticking as would take 2-3 months so only option is for PM to dig in
I'm not sure why a leadership race HAS to take 2-3 months. And anyway the solution is surely for May to go, Davis to become interim leader and begin the Brexit negotiations he would be been leading as Brexit secretary anyway?
Remember these are just preliminary talks. Nothing is actually going to get done until after the German election in September so we do still have a window.
The last leadership election took 2 to 3 weeks, not months.
Oh and one other clear winner from the election is the great British public. The increased participation, especially by the young, is extremely healthy for our democracy even if it did what is loosely my team no favours this time.
It seems ironic when this is exactly what Corbyn did but just maybe the day of bribing the oldies and neglecting the next generation just might be over. That would be a huge long term gain for the UK.
Cabinet source says impossible to have leadership race with Brexit clock ticking as would take 2-3 months so only option is for PM to dig in
I'm not sure why a leadership race HAS to take 2-3 months. And anyway the solution is surely for May to go, Davis to become interim leader and begin the Brexit negotiations he would be been leading as Brexit secretary anyway?
Remember these are just preliminary talks. Nothing is actually going to get done until after the German election in September so we do still have a window.
Or perhaps for May to do an Abbott and take a leave of absence, remaining as leader, but allowing a triumvirate of Davis, Hammond and Johnson to run the show with Davis leading on the Brexit negotiations. Later, there would be a leadership election between these three.
Cabinet source says impossible to have leadership race with Brexit clock ticking as would take 2-3 months so only option is for PM to dig in
This may be so. The best option is for May to do an Abbott and take a leave of absence, remaining as leader, but allowing a triumvirate of Davis, Hammond and Johnson to run the show. Later, there would be a leadership election between these three.
Yeah, May stepping down to a chosen successor is the obvious thing to do, they need to get on with it.
@TomMcTague: What Theresa May has lost in 7 weeks: Comms director, press secretary, both chiefs of staff, Tory majority, personal authority. No 10 gutted
In the long run it's immensely positive for us as a nation that it was a humiliation meted out in a democratic British election rather than as a result of being found out by Brussels. It gives us chance to rethink the direction we've chosen.
Yes. The only thing that worries me is that some on Continent have already decided on enforcing this humilation now, as a result of the lunacy of last year, and we may have less room to manoeuvre than we might like.
Humiliating Britain has always been the policy of the EU, whether inside or not.
You really have a massive complex, don't you?
No, just a cold analysis of the historical facts.
For example, the negotiating failures which Blair, Brown and Cameron all had with the EU.
On a different issue did you expect Labour to do so well in the Wandsworth constituencies ? Owen Jones was desperately tweeting for GOTV help in Tooting so he obviously didn't. If the Conservatives are still in government next May they might lose control of Wandsworth council.
And did you go for the 7/2 Labour to win Westminster North which I tipped ?
I followed you in on Westminster North. I also had Ealing Central and Acton, Harrow West and Enfield North.
They may well lose Wandsworth Council but don't assume it will all be the responsibility of the Government. People look at the shiny low council tax and assume all is well...
Today my anger is mostly directed at Chloe Smith who stubbornly held on by 500 to deny my sexy 12s tip. Norwich trending left will always be the story of elections. The city council has never been anything but blood red. Tories in general will only win Norwich North in upswing elections. She did well to cling on tbf.
I wouldn't call 2017 an upswing election!
As I said, she did well to cling on. 12s was always too long. She'd have been run close in 2015 if the labour candidate had done ANY work at all.
I'm guessing the vast majority of the signatories aren't the kind of people that would be voting Tory anyway.
Has Arlene decided if it will be a coalition or a confidence arrangement yet ?
Did you see that new statesman article below? Makes a good point that they would lose a lot of leverage if it was coalition rather than C&S. The Tories would do well to keep them at arms length. DUP NI Secretary probably wouldn't go down too well over there.
Cabinet source says impossible to have leadership race with Brexit clock ticking as would take 2-3 months so only option is for PM to dig in
I'm not sure why a leadership race HAS to take 2-3 months. And anyway the solution is surely for May to go, Davis to become interim leader and begin the Brexit negotiations he would be been leading as Brexit secretary anyway?
Remember these are just preliminary talks. Nothing is actually going to get done until after the German election in September so we do still have a window.
The last leadership election took 2 to 3 weeks, not months.
Suspect they will want a full election this time.
Yep no coronation, they will want a proper contest this time.
Cabinet source says impossible to have leadership race with Brexit clock ticking as would take 2-3 months so only option is for PM to dig in
I'm not sure why a leadership race HAS to take 2-3 months. And anyway the solution is surely for May to go, Davis to become interim leader and begin the Brexit negotiations he would be been leading as Brexit secretary anyway?
Remember these are just preliminary talks. Nothing is actually going to get done until after the German election in September so we do still have a window.
The last leadership election took 2 to 3 weeks, not months.
Cabinet source says impossible to have leadership race with Brexit clock ticking as would take 2-3 months so only option is for PM to dig in
This may be so. The best option is for May to do an Abbott and take a leave of absence, remaining as leader, but allowing a triumvirate of Davis, Hammond and Johnson to run the show. Later, there would be a leadership election between these three.
That sounds sensible and a bit reminiscent of the replacement of Eden and Macmillan.
Comments
We're still waiting for the punishment budget and stock market crash you promised us.
EDIT: If she lasts that long
Fiona Hill must be pretty annoyed to say the least that she had to go because he colleague insisted, against her advice, to put the Dementia Tax in the manifesto.
https://twitter.com/pressjournal/status/873287011242831872
She must realise this will be unbearably strained every day, every debate, every meeting from now until it collapses?
Tories may be afraid of doing worse in another election but the longer it's delayed the more the resentment sinks in. The 4 year death of majors Tory party led to 13 years in the wilderness. Take the hit now and they might be back before they know it
She has been judged and found wanting.
Public opinion will move against the conservatives and the version of Brexit they are pursuing as the economic consequences are felt (indeed, the election result itself is a strong signal that of the direction of travel).
We can then arrive at a more sensible and realistic position, ie an EEA type arrangement with some sort of Emergency brake plus on free movement. IE a position that would be endorsed by probably 60 - 65% of people in the UK and the one we should have always gone for.
Not sure what will happen to Labour in the meantime, and how they will fit in to these plans. I don't think they can elect a leader from the moderate wing of the party. Starmer or Thornberry might be in play as proven Corbyn allies.
Shambolic - May will destroy the tories reputation for competence just like Major after Black Wednesday. Labour just need to neutralise the security and defence questions around them and they will win the next election.
That would be a worthwhile parting gift to the Nation
@PeterMannionMP: @MattChorley Has he got two responses drafted...?
O__o
That was grossly unfair on Brown.
She is in another league of her own.
Like Tezza
The Conservatives would be mad to go into a formal coalition with the DUP. Utterly utterly bonkers.
Looks good on paper, can play the role in the honeymoon period but would be crap when it matters.
I suppose if the strategy is to have another election within a year Hammond might suffice.
@PaulBrandITV: Spoke to one senior MP today who says May is definitely safe in short term. He's spoken to 23 colleagues none of whom want a challenge.
I'd say the ball will have fallen lose by, say, 5pm on Monday evening.
https://twitter.com/scottories/status/873546547413254144
https://twitter.com/newstatesman/status/873530684253536256
The UK has a had a trade deficit every consecutive month for almost twenty years, stagnant productivity, falling home ownership, increasing debt and so on.
Globalisation and the changes it has brought isn't going away. Nor are people's expectations of growing richer and politicians willingness to offer unaffordable promises.
- Derby North, Gower and Vale of Clwyd: lost quite badly to Lab;
- Morley & Outwood and Plymouth Moor View: substantially increased Con majority;
- Bolton West and Telford: basically a repeat of 2015;
- Southampton Itchen: vastly reduced Con majority.
Also look at Warwickshire North - hyper-marginal in 2010, 6-point cushion in 2015, 18-point lead in 2017. Quite a contrast to Warwick & Leamington.
edit: corrections made.
On other matters, a DUP deal with the Tories will be toxic with many, many voters.
If she does actually try and present a formal coalition with the DUP to her backbenchers that will surely be the end for her?
Mr Johnson has almost as much baggage of one sort or another to Corbyn, however he lacks Corbyn's apparent humility.
Sticking with Mrs May until someone comes up with a plan seems most appropriate. If the answer is 'Boris' it was a pretty stupid question!
You can't say that of Maybot.
@iankatz1000
Cabinet source says impossible to have leadership race with Brexit clock ticking as would take 2-3 months so only option is for PM to dig in
This may be so. The best option is for May to do an Abbott and take a leave of absence, remaining as leader, but allowing a triumvirate of Davis, Hammond and Johnson to run the show. Later, there would be a leadership election between these three.
In the end the Conservative Party endures and adapts and survives. It's what they do...
Mind you, fraud prevention (Halifax) seem to be doing a good job. One transaction blocked, the other one will be refunded.
Some thieving scumbag was buying groceries online. With an iPad. The techno-heretic!
I only buy groceries by carrier pigeon.
For example, the negotiating failures which Blair, Brown and Cameron all had with the EU.
On a different issue did you expect Labour to do so well in the Wandsworth constituencies ? Owen Jones was desperately tweeting for GOTV help in Tooting so he obviously didn't. If the Conservatives are still in government next May they might lose control of Wandsworth council.
And did you go for the 7/2 Labour to win Westminster North which I tipped ?
That's a bit like saying the sea just needs to neutralise the wetness and saltiness questions around it...
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/873549196716101635
Remember these are just preliminary talks. Nothing is actually going to get done until after the German election in September so we do still have a window.
That said, when have some Cons backbenchers seen sense?
Norwich trending left will always be the story of elections. The city council has never been anything but blood red. Tories in general will only win Norwich North in upswing elections. She did well to cling on tbf.
You'd think this was 1997, from some comments.
Pick it up and it says "anytime/anywhere.com"
Turns out it was a taxi company ;-)
I'll get my coat
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/31/what-if-this-latest-from-yougov-proves-to-be-correct/