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  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    RobD said:

    I see she is still clinging on :p

    You mean to the DUP ....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,777
    TOPPING said:

    If the Tory party sees sense it has to be a Remainer who is not grey (literally and presentationally). ie it's Rudd. They cannot operate with any Leaver in charge because that ship has sailed and they will give Lab a majority at the very next opportunity. It has to be a Remainer who will "listen to" the various interests of both Leave and Remain. How many times to the Cons need telling.

    That said, when have some Cons backbenchers seen sense?
    Theresa May was a leaver?

    Remain, Leave. It's a mute point. What we need is someone competent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    JackW said:

    You mean to the DUP ....
    That's happening regardless of May's position.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,304
    Sean_F said:

    They did, after all, win 43.5% of the vote.

    You'd think this was 1997, from some comments.

    The "Tories are finished" nonsense is absurd.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    The Conservatives should not forget the Liberal Democrats.

    A very skillful Tory PM should be able to approach them for votes on liberal issues, and the DUP on socially conservative ones, to win most divisions in the House.

    The Conservatives have an absolute majority of 60 in England, and 18 in rUK (excl. Scotland) and 4 short for the whole of the UK.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: Names being floated by informed Tories for new Downing Street operation this afternoon: Bridges, Barwell and Gummer.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    DanSmith said:
    May was heavily made up at her count in Maidenhead . I presume a few years after that exit poll.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Yorkcity said:

    May was heavily made up at her count in Maidenhead . I presume a few years after that exit poll.
    Years.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408
    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May was a leaver?

    Remain, Leave. It's a mute point. What we need is someone competent.
    Exactly.

    Competence is key.

    Instead people prefer their political nuances.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Tears this auto correction.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    How splendid. My card's been hacked.

    Mind you, fraud prevention (Halifax) seem to be doing a good job. One transaction blocked, the other one will be refunded.

    Some thieving scumbag was buying groceries online. With an iPad. The techno-heretic!

    I only buy groceries by carrier pigeon.

    Ouch

    This will make you laugh though - back in the day when in restaurants they slid your card through a machine (non electronic) I visited a curry house in London

    We first knew something was up when my wife rang me in office and jokingly said "you obviously had a good lunch on xx/yy"

    I look at my calendar - I am confused I went nowhere that day ..... yet my card had been used in a place called "the boob bar" :-)

    He had also bought family tickets to a theme park.

    But stupidly, he had paid a cable / internet company using my card :-)

    Even then whilst I was refunded not sure they ever prosecuted them.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    The more I look at it, the more I find Johnny Mercer's result in Plymouth extremely impressive.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,079

    This has aged better than others of my recent threads:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/31/what-if-this-latest-from-yougov-proves-to-be-correct/
    Apologies, I mis-remembered. It was Mr Meeks who provided us with this sterling tip.

    The bet can now be laid off at 60. But I'm hanging in a bit longer.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    How splendid. My card's been hacked.

    Mind you, fraud prevention (Halifax) seem to be doing a good job. One transaction blocked, the other one will be refunded.

    Some thieving scumbag was buying groceries online. With an iPad. The techno-heretic!

    I only buy groceries by carrier pigeon.

    Some twat got hold of mine and lumped on con maj at 1.3.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    GIN1138 said:

    Theresa May was a leaver?

    Remain, Leave. It's a mute point. What we need is someone competent.
    She was and is grey as a steady hand on the tiller. But steady hand on the tiller didn't work. We need someone with charisma. And, as to my point about Remain/Leave, someone who is not going to bang on about limiting immigration. Theresa May, with no small amount of irony, has succeeded in retoxifying the party (I don't think it is fair but there it is). They need someone who can cut across different demographics and loyalties. That would of course be BoJo but he can't then say he is back to Remaining.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Some twat got hold of mine and lumped on con maj at 1.3.
    wasn't it your kid?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003
    RobD said:

    That's happening regardless of May's position.
    It doesn't have to be. They could negotiate an arrangement with Labour to drop all the contentious stuff and focus and consult on the Brexit negotiations based on the Labour position as outlined in the Labour manifesto. That would be a stable arrangement with a large majority in the national interest. May couldn't deliver it but Davis could. It would be a better option than this DUP nonsense.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sean_F said:

    You'd think this was 1997, from some comments.

    Context is everything Sean.

    Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,079
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Names being floated by informed Tories for new Downing Street operation this afternoon: Bridges, Barwell and Gummer.

    Gummer lost his seat.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    If May resigns there's a legitimite constitutional case that the Queen will have to call for Corbyn... Labour are pushing the case that they can get a Budget and Queens speech through the Commons.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,378
    Mr. Floater, well, these things happen. I'm pretty pleased with the swift response from Halifax and the process seemed straightforward. Not quite sure where the theft occurred (might be the cashpoint, I don't do online banking or anything like that).
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    glw said:

    The "Tories are finished" nonsense is absurd.
    They have a massive powerbase, they just need someone who can mobilise it properly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    edited June 2017
    Barnesian said:

    It doesn't have to be. They could negotiate an arrangement with Labour to drop all the contentious stuff and focus and consult on the Brexit negotiations based on the Labour position as outlined in the Labour manifesto. That would be a stable arrangement with a large majority in the national interest. May couldn't deliver it but Davis could. It would be a better option than this DUP nonsense.
    Yeah, on Brexit (the position of the two parties isn't actually all that different)... but what happens for all the other pieces of legislation?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617

    Exactly.

    Competence is key.

    Instead people prefer their political nuances.
    People prefer human beings. That rules out a lot of Cons cabinet ministers.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    The Conservatives should not forget the Liberal Democrats.

    A very skillful Tory PM should be able to approach them for votes on liberal issues, and the DUP on socially conservative ones, to win most divisions in the House.

    The Conservatives have an absolute majority of 60 in England, and 18 in rUK (excl. Scotland) and 4 short for the whole of the UK.

    Farron was clever in his speech, saying they whilst there could be no arrangements with tories they would look at everything on its merits.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,341
    The BBC are saying the DUP have no desire for a Coalition, which would anger some of their supporters, but will give supply and confidence.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,896
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Some twat got hold of mine and lumped on con maj at 1.3.
    :-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    edited June 2017
    I think the provincial strategy was correct, but the tactics for the Tories were awful.

    OK Mansfield and NED were gained, but High Peak and Kensington shouldn't go red in the other direction.
    The Tories ought to have been taking Stoke Central, and not losing Warwick and Leamington.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    Sean_F said:

    The BBC are saying the DUP have no desire for a Coalition, which would anger some of their supporters, but will give supply and confidence.

    So, minority government. Far better IMO.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TOPPING said:

    People prefer human beings. That rules out a lot of Cons cabinet ministers.
    I dont have to like people in my government - but I am keen that they be competent and look after the interests of their people.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Gummer lost his seat.
    So did Barwell (don't know who Bridges is). Presumably they're floating them to replace Timothy/Hill.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,079
    DanSmith said:
    Why announce that the aides have gone then?

    Unless the party has continued to push for her to go over the course of the last hour?

    Red meat has been through out of the van, but the dogs have ignored it and carried on pursuing the van.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965

    Gummer lost his seat.
    Surely that's the point - he needs something to do.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,378
    Mr. Z, I do sympathise with the victims of such mischief.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Gummer lost his seat.

    Yes, that's why he is available as a replacement SPAD
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313

    Why announce that the aides have gone then?

    Unless the party has continued to push for her to go over the course of the last hour?

    Red meat has been through out of the van, but the dogs have ignored it and carried on pursuing the van.
    Because either way she is staying on as PM.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    TOPPING said:

    People prefer human beings. That rules out a lot of Cons cabinet ministers.
    A more skillful PM might have been able to win a clear Conservative majority without changing a single thing in the manifesto.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Mr. Floater, well, these things happen. I'm pretty pleased with the swift response from Halifax and the process seemed straightforward. Not quite sure where the theft occurred (might be the cashpoint, I don't do online banking or anything like that).

    I know exactly where things happened with my card - never used that restaurant ever again.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Ipeetea: @RobDotHutton Looks like we'll be sending Brussels the Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Team. I hope they can come up with a handy acronym.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,378
    F1: just following the BBC livefeed. Honda is 100bhp down on Mercedes. And it breaks down all the time. But apart from being slow and unreliable, it's good.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,079
    stjohn said:

    :-)
    Oh, those heady days when PBers were talking about the free money machine that was a BF bet on Con majority.

    The past is a foreign country, they do things differently there.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2017
    I was looking at the current Shadow team.

    Basically everyone willing to serve was at least made shadow junior minister, with a couple of spots still vacant.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,617
    Floater said:

    I dont have to like people in my government - but I am keen that they be competent and look after the interests of their people.
    Maybe so, but you're out of step with the zeitgeist. Did you notice anything about the respective campaigns we have just had?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,411
    alex. said:

    So did Barwell (don't know who Bridges is). Presumably they're floating them to replace Timothy/Hill.
    George Bridges, well regarded across the party

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Bridges,_Baron_Bridges_of_Headley
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408
    tlg86 said:

    I followed you in on Westminster North. I also had Ealing Central and Acton, Harrow West and Enfield North.
    Great, I love it when others win on my tips.

    London was a happy betting ground for me - Westminster N, Hampstead, Ealing C, Enfield N, Ilford N, Croydon C, Dagenham and Hammersmith were all big winners, only slightly offset by losses on Brentford, Tooting and Carshalton.

    Following electoral and demographic trends usually pays well.

    Annoyingly I thought about Kensington as well when last week someone mentioned there was a rumour circulating about a constituency more unlikely than Putney and Battersea being at risk.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    PeterC said:


    That process will be short-circuited once May is gone imo. Policy will move swiftly to an EFTA / EEA solution. The hardliners will squeel about it ut will be told that TINA.

    As a voter whose priority is Brexit (above any party political considerations) I'd be comfortable with an EEA solution. Leaving the EU itself is in some sense a one-off event but the process of disentanglement is longer term and moreover there are still plenty of European projects that even keen Brexiteers are keen to engage with.

    The most acceptable thing about EEA is that it need not be an end destination and you can move from there to other arrangements if necessary - perhaps with relative economic comfort, in fact, if the proportion of our trade with the EU continues its path of relative decline and reaches 25-30% or so. (This is a long-term trend largely driven by our increasing trade with other markets, and European economic growth being slower than our other markets. I'm not talking about some new and precipitous collapse in trade caused by Brexit, though its possible that a focus on finding new trade partners accelerates this shift.)

    Like many Leave voters, the thing I'd go down like a ton of bricks on would be a government/parliament that cancels Brexit. If there were a second referendum and Remain wins, then so be it - I'd accept it, though I might think about campaigning to re-reverse the decision. Without the democratic mandate of either a referendum or outright Brexit election, I would find that utterly unacceptable. Whichever party does that would be stained for decades. (Obviously some people will be glad of it! But that kind of democratic betrayal is going to have severe long-term consequences for that party with, pulling a number not quite from a hat, something like 10% of the population? And in the shorter term it's easy to see, based on historical figures, UKIP on 20-30% again.)

    However, one thing I'm unrepresentative of Leave voters on, is that I'm fairly comfortable with immigration (provided there is a appropriate policy response to the challenges this produces, e.g. on housing and education). Most plausible routes to Soft Brexit seem to involve Freedom of Movement, perhaps with a few restrictions. I wonder how feasible the Labour promise on this was - their explicit manifesto claim they could get all the goodies from the EU without accepting FOM looks rather like cherry-picking to me. Like I said, I don't mind it - and if we are outside the EU, there is the flexibility for a future government to amend the deal later, in a way that can't be done as an EU member. What the electoral consequences of Brexit with continued FOM would be for the party that signed it off, I'm not sure. Somewhat negative, I suspect, but perhaps dampened by the fact that the voters who care most about the issue may not have great history of turning out in elections.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    Scott_P said:

    @Ipeetea: @RobDotHutton Looks like we'll be sending Brussels the Conservative and Unionist Negotiating Team. I hope they can come up with a handy acronym.

    Hm, given the formal name of the Tory party that would have happened regardless!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,859
    AndyJS said:

    The boundary review process is already well under way and a lot of money will have been spent on it. Do we really want to waste all that time, money and effort on scrapping it?

    http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/statement-on-the-general-election-updated-9-june-2017/
    http://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/2018-review/
    Yes, it's based on old data now and there's little enthusiasm anywhere for something that was amounting to a Tory gerrymander. It's dead, will not get through the Commons.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Names being floated by informed Tories for new Downing Street operation this afternoon: Bridges, Barwell and Gummer.

    Which of Bridges, Barwell and Gummer is the informed Tory in question?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313

    Yes, it's based on old data now and there's little enthusiasm anywhere for something that was amounting to a Tory gerrymander. It's dead, will not get through the Commons.
    How do the Tories gerrymander boundaries that are drawn up by an independent commission?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    JackW said:

    Context is everything Sean.

    Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
    it is an astonishing turn around - and shows to a degree how easy it is to bribe the voters with their own money.


    We get what we deserve I guess
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017
    I agree;

    Matthew d'Ancona‏ @MatthewdAncona 5h5 hours ago

    The scapegoating of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill by unnamed sources is absurd and cowardly. Classic transference and morally abject


    + tweets 1-7;

    https://twitter.com/MatthewdAncona
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    JackW said:

    Context is everything Sean.

    Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
    True to say we have political experts on here.Did anyone bet on a hung parliament ?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    alex. said:

    If May resigns there's a legitimite constitutional case that the Queen will have to call for Corbyn... Labour are pushing the case that they can get a Budget and Queens speech through the Commons.

    Not so.

    The Queen would be advised by the PM that she was resigning as Conservative party leader but she would remain as PM until a new leader was elected. Essentially a repeat of May's own situation a year back.

    I would also suggest the DUP would indicate they would vote against Jezza as PM and added to the Conservative bloc the Labour party could not command a majority in the HoC
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    Alistair said:

    It did badly in Scotland but I give it a pass there due to extreme tactical voting considerations
    A good point, and one you raised a few days before the GE on here. I also highlighted the shift upwards in the polls for Labour here in Scotland could end up delivering a second hit for the SNP in a lot of the seats where they were already in trouble due to anti SNP tactical voting. The SNP were leaking young left leaning voters to Corbyn mania in a lot of the very seats where they were desperately trying to shore up a core vote already under threat across Scotland. The only good news for me that came out of that EXIT poll was that SNP figure that backed my betting, every move that Sturgeon made in the last week of that GE campaign pointed to a party that was now in a total panic.

    Sturgeon made a huge error of judgement when she used a private conversation with Kez Dugdale to try to attack her in that last Leadership debate. Any short term hit for Kez and the Labour party in the final day of campaigning was never going to be worth the longer term damage Sturgeon has now done to her own reputation. And despite all the noise coming out of Bute House about how damaged May and her Government is after the GE result, the two biggest political losers up here in Scotland today are the SNP and the Scottish Green party. Sturgeon will now be facing questions over the GE campaign she ran, and one that cost the party its former Leader and Deputy Leader/Leader at Westminster.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,949
    RobD said:

    Yeah, on Brexit (the position of the two parties isn't actually all that different)... but what happens for all the other pieces of legislation?
    Labour will be plotting to try and bring the government down, particularly if it gets the continued poll boost that I am expecting now that May is damaged goods. They won't be interested in arrangements to get legislation through the Commons (unless there is a big payoff somewhere else).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    This election should be a warning to the Conservatives that the younger generation *will* swing very hard to the Left, unless they offer them something very attractive in future.

    May promised to up investment in technical skills and training, apprenticeships and build 1.5 million new homes. The Conservative offering has to be on more jobs, higher wages, and home ownership.

    I'm baffled as to why she didn't make more of this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084

    Great, I love it when others win on my tips.

    London was a happy betting ground for me - Westminster N, Hampstead, Ealing C, Enfield N, Ilford N, Croydon C, Dagenham and Hammersmith were all big winners, only slightly offset by losses on Brentford, Tooting and Carshalton.

    Following electoral and demographic trends usually pays well.

    Annoyingly I thought about Kensington as well when last week someone mentioned there was a rumour circulating about a constituency more unlikely than Putney and Battersea being at risk.
    That was me, and the constituency was Wimbledon. Majority cut by 7000 in the end.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,378
    Mr. Floater, yeah, easier when you do know for sure as you can just avoid it. But, as I said, these things happened, I'm getting a refund, so all's well that ends well.

    F1: Ferrari looking tasty.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127

    Which of Bridges, Barwell and Gummer is the informed Tory in question?
    Gummer will be very well informed of the consequences of a shit manifesto and campaign.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    JackW said:

    Not so.

    The Queen would be advised by the PM that she was resigning as Conservative party leader but she would remain as PM until a new leader was elected. Essentially a repeat of May's own situation a year back.

    I would also suggest the DUP would indicate they would vote against Jezza as PM and added to the Conservative bloc the Labour party could not command a majority in the HoC
    Yes, the PM can resign and another person from the same party can be appointed. I'm not sure why people are thinking that if May resigns it HAS to be Corbyn. That's only if the government resigns en masse.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003
    RobD said:

    Yeah, on Brexit (the position of the two parties isn't actually all that different)... but what happens for all the other pieces of legislation?
    They drop all the contentious stuff so very little new legislation for the next two years.

    There is the budget of course. There will have to be some horsetrading behind the scenes between the Government and Labour. We'll repeal the bedroom tax if you accept dropping the triple lock etc so that the budget can be voted through. It would be a confidence and supply arrangement with the Labour party. Much better than with the DUP. I think Corbyn would be up for it. May wouldn't be, but perhaps Davis would.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090

    @leonardocarella

    Liberal leavers, 2016: take back control of our democracy

    Liberal leavers, 2017: a stronger monarchy

    Has he been drinking?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084

    This election should be a warning to the Conservatives that the younger generation *will* swing very hard to the Left, unless they offer them something very attractive in future.

    May promised to up investment in technical skills and training, apprenticeships and build 1.5 million new homes. The Conservative offering has to be on more jobs, higher wages, and home ownership.

    I'm baffled as to why she didn't make more of this.

    I didn't hear any of that tbh - if we're not noticing it on here the message isn't getting out too well.
    Dementia tax and free tuition were the two policies I heard - if Andy Burnham had that manifesto, he could well have won.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TOPPING said:

    Maybe so, but you're out of step with the zeitgeist. Did you notice anything about the respective campaigns we have just had?
    I did actually.

    one was shockingly bad fronted by someone with no people skills.

    The other was full of lies and false promises of goodies paid for by others which would have crashed the economy - sold by a cuddly old codger who in reality is anything but.

    Am i close?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,006
    Had a close look at the Scotland results and they are fascinating. There are now a lot of SNP/Labour marginals now. Labour could conceivably have well over 20 Scottish MPs after the next general election.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    fitalass said:

    the two biggest political losers up here in Scotland today are the SNP and the Scottish Green party.

    https://twitter.com/ukunionvoice/status/873443209124487173
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313

    Had a close look at the Scotland results and they are fascinating. There are now a lot of SNP/Labour marginals now. Labour could conceivably have well over 20 Scottish MPs after the next general election.

    It was indeed a great day for the Union.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,003
    edited June 2017
    May is in the first denial stage of the five stages of grief - elisabeth kübler ross model.

    Next comes anger this afternoon. Closely followed by bargaining this evening. Then depression throughout Sunday followed by acceptance on Monday morning.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408
    JackW said:

    Context is everything Sean.

    Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
    Five weeks ago the Conservatives had an 11% lead in the local elections and more in the opinion polls.

    It was the manifestos which were key.

    Labour chose to bribe the youngies and the Conservatives chose to take from the oldies.

    And the urban middle classes were affected both ways.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    Barnesian said:

    May is in the first denial stage of the five stages of grief - elisabeth kübler ross model.

    Next comes anger this afternoon. Closely followed by bargaining this evening. Then depression throughout Sunday followed by acceptance on Monday morning.

    I suspect remainers have gone back a few stages in light of recent events... :D:p
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,777
    Pong said:

    I agree;

    Matthew d'Ancona‏ @MatthewdAncona 5h5 hours ago

    The scapegoating of Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill by unnamed sources is absurd and cowardly. Classic transference and morally abject


    + tweets 1-7;

    https://twitter.com/MatthewdAncona

    Osborne speaks! ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,084
    Oh my. To be a fly on the wall there.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408
    Barnesian said:

    May is in the first denial stage of the five stages of grief - elisabeth kübler ross model.

    Next comes anger this afternoon. Closely followed by bargaining this evening. Then depression throughout Sunday followed by acceptance on Monday morning.

    It will play out like the last days of Thatcher.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,079

    Gummer will be very well informed of the consequences of a shit manifesto and campaign.
    :lol:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,281
    When Britain needed a leader, she was to be found in Scotland, not Downing Street.

    https://stephendaisley.com/2017/06/10/how-the-night-of-the-long-claymores-unfolded/
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    This election should be a warning to the Conservatives that the younger generation *will* swing very hard to the Left, unless they offer them something very attractive in future.

    May promised to up investment in technical skills and training, apprenticeships and build 1.5 million new homes. The Conservative offering has to be on more jobs, higher wages, and home ownership.

    I'm baffled as to why she didn't make more of this.

    May completely failed to offer any economic argument to vote for her. The Tories did little to challenge Labour or dissect the Labour parties proposition. So, either the media was not interested in what the Tories had to say about Labour's economic plans (which means a communication problem) or the Tories were so inept they just let Labour say they would do all of things and it would not cost the average voter.

    I think defence policy was also an area the Tories failed to capitalise. The Labour line of carrying on procuring Trident but not to ever countenance using it even if the UK was attacked should have swung the election in its self.

    Theresa May has to go as she is clearly not up to the job of PM.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,777
    edited June 2017
    JackW said:

    Not so.

    The Queen would be advised by the PM that she was resigning as Conservative party leader but she would remain as PM until a new leader was elected. Essentially a repeat of May's own situation a year back.

    I would also suggest the DUP would indicate they would vote against Jezza as PM and added to the Conservative bloc the Labour party could not command a majority in the HoC
    Is there anyway of doing this so that May goes immediately and David Davis become interim leader/PM?

    That way he'll be leading the start of the Brexit talks as both interim leader and Brexit secretary which might make us seem slightly less ridiculous in front of the EU?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Thoughts on who would be the best Stop Boris candidate?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    RobD said:

    Yes, the PM can resign and another person from the same party can be appointed. I'm not sure why people are thinking that if May resigns it HAS to be Corbyn. That's only if the government resigns en masse.
    No, that's not the case. If she does it by resigning as leader and staying PM until a new leader is elected she doesn't go to the Queen. Before she resigns as PM there HAS to be a leader of the largest party in the Commons otherwise HMQ has to send for the next most likely person to command confidence, LOTO. There's no debate about it between them, that's how it is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    edited June 2017

    No, that's not the case. If she does it by resigning as leader and staying PM until a new leader is elected she doesn't go to the Queen. Before she resigns as PM there HAS to be a leader of the largest party in the Commons otherwise HMQ has to send for the next most likely person to command confidence, LOTO. There's no debate about it between them, that's how it is.
    Does the PM have to be the leader of a political party? I thought it was just someone who could command the confidence of the house.

    From wikipedia:

    British Prime Ministers have never been elected directly by the public. A Prime Minister need not be a party leader; David Lloyd George was not a party leader during his service as prime Minister during World War I, and neither was Ramsay MacDonald from 1931 to 1935.[60]
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RobD said:

    I suspect remainers have gone back a few stages in light of recent events... :D:p
    There appears to be no chortling stage built into that model.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,079
    GIN1138 said:

    Is there anyway of doing this so that May goes immediately and David Davis become interim leader/PM?

    That way he'll be leading the start of the Brexit talks as both interim leader and Brexit secretary which might make is seem slightly less ridiculous in front of the EU?
    Yes. May goes, the Cabinet meets and agrees Davis as replacement PM. He goes to Palace and secures her Majesty's approval that he has time to show that he can command a majority in the House.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,079
    If Hammond, Rudd and Boris can agree who shall be interim PM, then she is gone by Monday, if not by end of this evening.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408
    Pulpstar said:

    That was me, and the constituency was Wimbledon. Majority cut by 7000 in the end.
    I thought it might have been you.

    Didn't the Labour candidate in Wimbledon get into some trouble before the vote ? If so that may well have changed the result there.

    Although the demographics are much better for the Conservatives in Wimbledon especially home ownership.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited June 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    Is there anyway of doing this so that May goes immediately and David Davis become interim leader/PM?

    That way he'll be leading the start of the Brexit talks as both interim leader and Brexit secretary which might make is seem slightly less ridiculous in front of the EU?
    No. HMQ cannot follow party tactics. She will only approach the elected leader of a party in the Commons. If that's exhausted she'd probably have to dissolve and call a GE rather than make it up on the hoof.
    Constitutional tradition is there to specifically stop any hint of HMQ anointing a leader based on guesswork.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,341
    JackW said:

    Context is everything Sean.

    Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
    Granted, it's very disappointing, but there's still huge Conservative support.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    Had a close look at the Scotland results and they are fascinating. There are now a lot of SNP/Labour marginals now. Labour could conceivably have well over 20 Scottish MPs after the next general election.

    Things are certainly looking up for Labour since you abandoned ship.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Carlaw4Eastwood: The SNP vote lead over @ScotTories in 2015 was 1.02m. On June 8th this shrunk to just 219k. SNP alienated & lost 33% of 2015 voters.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,079
    RobD said:

    Does the PM have to be the leader of a political party? I thought it was just someone who could command the confidence of the house.

    From wikipedia:

    British Prime Ministers have never been elected directly by the public. A Prime Minister need not be a party leader; David Lloyd George was not a party leader during his service as prime Minister during World War I, and neither was Ramsay MacDonald from 1931 to 1935.[60]
    I think you are right.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    jonny83 said:

    Thoughts on who would be the best Stop Boris candidate?

    I'd have thought Hammond is in a good position. The fact of his having being sidelined during the campaign will now be to his advantage.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    I suspect remainers have gone back a few stages in light of recent events... :D:p
    Leavers seem to be stuck at one stage, winning or losing.

    Can you guess which one?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,313
    edited June 2017

    No. HMQ cannot follow party tactics. She will only approach the elected leader of a party in the Commons. If that's exhausted she'd probably have to dissolve and call a GE rather than make it up on the hoof.
    No, she isn't restricted only to party leaders. Lloyd-George wasn't leader when he was made PM, for instance.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    RobD said:

    Does the PM have to be the leader of a political party? I thought it was just someone who could command the confidence of the house.

    From wikipedia:

    British Prime Ministers have never been elected directly by the public. A Prime Minister need not be a party leader; David Lloyd George was not a party leader during his service as prime Minister during World War I, and neither was Ramsay MacDonald from 1931 to 1935.[60]
    Chamberlain resigned as PM and Churchill took over, but Chamberlain stayed on as party leader. Kept Churchill in check to some extent from immediately purging all of Chamberlain's allies!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,408

    This election should be a warning to the Conservatives that the younger generation *will* swing very hard to the Left, unless they offer them something very attractive in future.

    May promised to up investment in technical skills and training, apprenticeships and build 1.5 million new homes. The Conservative offering has to be on more jobs, higher wages, and home ownership.

    I'm baffled as to why she didn't make more of this.

    Politicians always promise to improve skills and build houses.

    Its meaningless compared to the offer to save you, or your teenage child, £27k.
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