May is trying to negotiate a formal coalition with the DUP? Jesus Christ. I've said her staying on as PM seems the only viable option at the moment, but this is getting silly now. What's the point of a coalition when it will barely give them a majority anyway. And they'll quite happily walk away at any time. Surely the DUP won't be interested anyway which makes her look even more silly?
The DUP thing won't last through Monday.
In which case an election might be coming sooner than anyone hopes, or actually wanted.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
He only delivered the majority by promising a referendum on Europe!
Re: the main topic what i don't really understand is why the Labour vote was understated, but there wasn't a corollary of an overstatement in the Tory vote.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
I still struggle to comprehend a world where Mansfield goes Blue and Canterbury goes Red
But it is also a world where those of us who snipe from the sidelines about Brexit must accept some of the blame too. It does not help to heal when so many won't accept the result of a referendum.
I don't know what the new social settlement looks like - but by god do we need one.
People don't accept it because it is likely it will make the country and specifically households worse off. That is why I don't accept it. Through no fault of my own I am worse off than I would be had that Referendum never been held. Prices have risen whilst incomes are now falling below behind the rate of increase of price rises. I don't accept the result because it was based on lies i.e. £350M per week for the NHS and the ending of mass immigration. Theresa May has just lost an election with her platform focused on Brexit, the public is telling politicians something there.
Thanks for giving a perfect example of one of the two problems I outline.
Do you never accept the result of democracy when you lose, or just this time?
I understand what you are saying, my point is the lies from Leave and particularly on Immigration and the NHS make me angry. I resent being made poorer through an ill-informed population making a decision like this. People I knew were voting Leave because they thought trade deals could be quickly negotiated, that Immigration would stop, that the NHS would get extra funding and manufacturing would somehow re-appear. It was a prospectus built on sand and the chickens are coming home to roost for the Tories who instigated it all.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
The practical way forward for the next two years as the Brexit clock ticks down is to ditch all contentious legislation, focus on Brexit, and build a cross party consensus with a large majority to deliver it. That means consulting with Team Corbyn. May is temperamentally incapable of that. It needs Davis or Hammond to be in charge.
"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay.
This and other polls that recorded highish turnout rates from the younger generation were fiercely criticised. I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov"
Back to the old PB adage "A Rogue poll is one whose results you don't like.
Polly Toynbee very good on Any Questions and there's clear anti-Tory sentiment. There are a lot of losers in this election. None more so than the Mail and the Sun.
Jonathan Dimbleby did remind her that this was no Labour victory and with next years boundary changes in place Mrs May would have had around 80 seats more than Labour.
Labour's votes are in the wrong places after 2018. A win on the popular vote for Labour could still mean a Tory majority. Cameron and Osborne really were master tacticians.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
He only delivered the majority by promising a referendum on Europe!
Maybe so...Doubt it made much difference in the Lib Dem seats he won? Think the SNP/ Lab thing played more of a part.
Survation and YouGov faced lots of ridicule from the experts. Even here on PB.
All have gone quiet.
I was - and still am - critical of You Gov's change of methodology for their final poll. But I always maintained that it was much healthier to have pollsters giving different polls.
Martin Boon should apologise.
He's already has
Fair enough.
re=reading it, not quite an apology more admission of guilt.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
Agreed, I still cannot get over the number of Conservative Brexiters that were shocked or angry when Cameron resigned following the EU Referendum result, what the hell did they think was going to happen? And if he was a regular reader of PB.com as some have suggested, I doubt he would have been minded to hang around after going from majoirty achieving hero to failed EU negociating villain.
Survation and YouGov faced lots of ridicule from the experts. Even here on PB.
All have gone quiet.
I was - and still am - critical of You Gov's change of methodology for their final poll. But I always maintained that it was much healthier to have pollsters giving different polls.
Martin Boon should apologise.
He's already has
Fair enough.
re=reading it, not quite an apology more admission of guilt.
I take responsibility for my part in this election campaign, which was the oversight of our policy programme. In particular, I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care.
But I would like to make clear that the bizarre media reports about my own role in the policy’s inclusion are wrong: it had been the subject of many months of work within Whitehall, and it was not my personal pet project. I chose not to rebut these reports as they were published, as to have done so would have been a distraction for the campaign.
But I take responsibility for the content of the whole manifesto, which I continue to believe is an honest and strong programme for government.
From today's Times: "John Godfrey, the No 10 policy chief had spent months working on a cap to social care costs, but saw it ripped up in favour of a floor..." Apparently the ripping was at least partly Timothy's decision.
(Incidentally, I must apologise for assuming previously that Godfrey bore some responsibility for the fuckup.)
So basically Timothy's self-exculpatory statement appears to be disingenuous bollocks.
I still struggle to comprehend a world where Mansfield goes Blue and Canterbury goes Red
But it is also a world where those of us who snipe from the sidelines about Brexit must accept some of the blame too. It does not help to heal when so many won't accept the result of a referendum.
I don't know what the new social settlement looks like - but by god do we need one.
People don't accept it because it is likely it will make the country and specifically households worse off. That is why I don't accept it. Through no fault of my own I am worse off than I would be had that Referendum never been held. Prices have risen whilst incomes are now falling below behind the rate of increase of price rises. I don't accept the result because it was based on lies i.e. £350M per week for the NHS and the ending of mass immigration. Theresa May has just lost an election with her platform focused on Brexit, the public is telling politicians something there.
Thanks for giving a perfect example of one of the two problems I outline.
Do you never accept the result of democracy when you lose, or just this time?
I understand what you are saying, my point is the lies from Leave and particularly on Immigration and the NHS make me angry. I resent being made poorer through an ill-informed population making a decision like this. People I knew were voting Leave because they thought trade deals could be quickly negotiated, that Immigration would stop, that the NHS would get extra funding and manufacturing would somehow re-appear. It was a prospectus built on sand and the chickens are coming home to roost for the Tories who instigated it all.
I still stand in awe and the readiness and rapidity with which Johnson, and most of all, Gove, embraced this fantasy.
Aye, I was one of the many who thought YouGov/Survation would be some way off.
I do think there's a danger with both politics and polling of viewing things through the prism of the last war. Next time, things are always a little different.
Some possibilities for the next election: Referendum revenge abates, natural Conservatives return home Complacent voters see real risk of Corbyn, vote blue Enthused younger generation turn out at a similar rate, Labour share remains strong or improves Labour gets improved tactical voting in Scotland UKIP bounce back as any deal won't be Kipper enough for some, primarily harms the Conservatives Lord Buckethead becomes Prime Minister and leads the nation to a new Golden Age
I still struggle to comprehend a world where Mansfield goes Blue and Canterbury goes Red
But it is also a world where those of us who snipe from the sidelines about Brexit must accept some of the blame too. It does not help to heal when so many won't accept the result of a referendum.
I don't know what the new social settlement looks like - but by god do we need one.
People don't accept it because it is likely it will make the country and specifically households worse off. That is why I don't accept it. Through no fault of my own I am worse off than I would be had that Referendum never been held. Prices have risen whilst incomes are now falling below behind the rate of increase of price rises. I don't accept the result because it was based on lies i.e. £350M per week for the NHS and the ending of mass immigration. Theresa May has just lost an election with her platform focused on Brexit, the public is telling politicians something there.
Thanks for giving a perfect example of one of the two problems I outline.
Do you never accept the result of democracy when you lose, or just this time?
I understand what you are saying, my point is the lies from Leave and particularly on Immigration and the NHS make me angry. I resent being made poorer through an ill-informed population making a decision like this. People I knew were voting Leave because they thought trade deals could be quickly negotiated, that Immigration would stop, that the NHS would get extra funding and manufacturing would somehow re-appear. It was a prospectus built on sand and the chickens are coming home to roost for the Tories who instigated it all.
I still stand in awe and the readiness and rapidity with which Johnson, and most of all, Gove, embraced this fantasy.
"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay.
This and other polls that recorded highish turnout rates from the younger generation were fiercely criticised. I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov"
Back to the old PB adage "A Rogue poll is one whose results you don't like.
Polly Toynbee very good on Any Questions and there's clear anti-Tory sentiment. There are a lot of losers in this election. None more so than the Mail and the Sun.
Jonathan Dimbleby did remind her that this was no Labour victory and with next years boundary changes in place Mrs May would have had around 80 seats more than Labour.
Labour's votes are in the wrong places after 2018. A win on the popular vote for Labour could still mean a Tory majority. Cameron and Osborne really were master tacticians.
You think the boundary changes will be approved by this Parliament?
I have to admit that my first thought after the GE result was in was to ask myself if we were now lookng at an Autumn GE, and if so, could any of the major parties afford another one never mind the smaller ones?
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
Indeed, I think Cameron will be judged very harshly for the way he just resigned. Paradoxically, May has to go though as she lost a General Election that she instigated. May has clearly shown she is not up to the task of communicating the interests of the British people. She cannot communicate her agenda to the electorate, what hope has she got to rival powers?
Aye, I was one of the many who thought YouGov/Survation would be some way off.
I do think there's a danger with both politics and polling of viewing things through the prism of the last war. Next time, things are always a little different.
Some possibilities for the next election: Referendum revenge abates, natural Conservatives return home Complacent voters see real risk of Corbyn, vote blue Enthused younger generation turn out at a similar rate, Labour share remains strong or improves Labour gets improved tactical voting in Scotland UKIP bounce back as any deal won't be Kipper enough for some, primarily harms the Conservatives Lord Buckethead becomes Prime Minister and leads the nation to a new Golden Age
I predict that at the next election Labour will offer to write off all student tuition debts.
With a free army of willing young foot soldiers, getting the vote out, and freely hijacking social media for free I am not so sure big money is as important for Labour as it once was. Doubtless helps I guess.
Thank you, that's quite complimentary. I have to point out that others, including Casino_Royale and you, were wise enough to not dismiss the YouGov pol out of hand. OGH also implied a mode effect in play, which was another warning sign.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
Oh, and the other error was hubris. He thought he couldn't lose the referendum and did no contingency planning. The Civil Service was not allowed to make any preparation. Friends in the Treasury told me they were forbidden to even spend time thinking about Brexit. All of that was a massive dereliction of duty and now we are in this quagmire.
"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay.
This and other polls that recorded highish turnout rates from the younger generation were fiercely criticised. I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov"
Back to the old PB adage "A Rogue poll is one whose results you don't like.
Polly Toynbee very good on Any Questions and there's clear anti-Tory sentiment. There are a lot of losers in this election. None more so than the Mail and the Sun.
Jonathan Dimbleby did remind her that this was no Labour victory and with next years boundary changes in place Mrs May would have had around 80 seats more than Labour.
Labour's votes are in the wrong places after 2018. A win on the popular vote for Labour could still mean a Tory majority. Cameron and Osborne really were master tacticians.
You think the boundary changes will be approved by this Parliament?
They affect he DUP quite badly don't they?
I've just remembered that the DUP leader isbat the centre of the cash for ash scandal.
Re MANSFIELD I live in the adjacent constituency (Ashfield) but the result is not such a great surprise as it might seem from outside. "Sir" Alan Meale has been MP for the last 30 years, sine the days when the constituency was in the gift of the National Union of Mineworkers. The feeling seemed to be that he has done alright for himself, not so well for Mansfield. Things have changed around here: recently the Mayor of Mansfield was an Independent, whereas at one time he would have had to be Labour. Also the question of Brexit is important, as Alan Meale was for Remain, and this is a strong area for Leave. It was known that he was under threat, and so it came to pass.
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
Pretty sure most of his party realised he'd resign if leave won. Bizarrely plenty of them were happy for it to happen as were many Tories on here.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
Oh, and the other error was hubris. He thought he couldn't lose the referendum and did no contingency planning. The Civil Service was not allowed to make any preparation. Friends in the Treasury told me they were forbidden to even spend time thinking about Brexit. All of that was a massive dereliction of duty and now we are in this quagmire.
I appreciate you think differently.
If he had allowed 'preparation' for Brexit to take place he would have been accused of undermining the Brexiteers because it would have highlighted that were asking the country to jump into an abyss.
"Remember that Survation poll that was attacked for the numbers sampled who had said that they had watched the Question Time special with Corbyn and TMay.
This and other polls that recorded highish turnout rates from the younger generation were fiercely criticised. I received hosts of attacking Tweets even for having the temerity to circulate poll numbers from Survation and YouGov"
Back to the old PB adage "A Rogue poll is one whose results you don't like.
Polly Toynbee very good on Any Questions and there's clear anti-Tory sentiment. There are a lot of losers in this election. None more so than the Mail and the Sun.
Jonathan Dimbleby did remind her that this was no Labour victory and with next years boundary changes in place Mrs May would have had around 80 seats more than Labour.
Labour's votes are in the wrong places after 2018. A win on the popular vote for Labour could still mean a Tory majority. Cameron and Osborne really were master tacticians.
You think the boundary changes will be approved by this Parliament?
A Tory three line whip, promising hopeful candidacies to the dispossessed and concessions to the DUP, why not?
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
Indeed, I think Cameron will be judged very harshly for the way he just resigned. Paradoxically, May has to go though as she lost a General Election that she instigated. May has clearly shown she is not up to the task of communicating the interests of the British people. She cannot communicate her agenda to the electorate, what hope has she got to rival powers?
I agree about May. She has no credibility for negotiating Brexit.
Apparently Boris has been receiving calls, and stands ready if needed...
I'll be tearing up my membership card if that happens.
Caveat - unless he guarantees to deliver that £350m pw for the NHS - without that commitment he's toast as a leader to get behind as far as I'm concerned.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
Agreed, I still cannot get over the number of Conservative Brexiters that were shocked or angry when Cameron resigned following the EU Referendum result, what the hell did they think was going to happen? And if he was a regular reader of PB.com as some have suggested, I doubt he would have been minded to hang around after going from majoirty achieving hero to failed EU negociating villain.
Whether Cameron stayed or resigned was not an issue for me. I voted on the merits of EU membership.
A Tory three line whip, promising hopeful candidacies to the dispossessed and concessions to the DUP, why not?
A Unionist from NI (Lucian Fletcher is I think the poster's name) posted on pb.com that the DUP would block the boundary changes because they are very bad for Unionists in NI.
I think one reason the attacks on Corbyn were ineffective was because hardly any under 35s read newspapers. They get their news from websites. And If you go to a site like Mail Online you'll see that even in an election, celebrity tittle tattle is usually the most prominent rather than political stuff, presumably as it draws more visitors.
Of course, it could also be due to Momentum activists buying and burning all the copies of the Sun....!
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
Oh, and the other error was hubris. He thought he couldn't lose the referendum and did no contingency planning. The Civil Service was not allowed to make any preparation. Friends in the Treasury told me they were forbidden to even spend time thinking about Brexit. All of that was a massive dereliction of duty and now we are in this quagmire.
I appreciate you think differently.
I don't disagree with that point. It's good to disagree..be boring if we were all pining for the Golden Years of the Posh Boys and Clegg!
Apparently Boris has been receiving calls, and stands ready if needed...
I'll be tearing up my membership card if that happens.
Caveat - unless he guarantees to deliver that £350m pw for the NHS - without that commitment he's toast as a leader to get behind as far as I'm concerned.
Will Heseltine keep quiet if he runs? Somehow, I doubt it.
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
Yes.
I would like to see a statement from May that Davis will start the Brexit process going as the lead negotiator, and that she will oversee the first few months as a caretaker. But she acknowledges the bad result and cannot remain as leader. Leadership contest over the summer, new leader in place for the conference season.
Her position is untenable. If she tries to hang on she will do tremendous damage.
Labour yes, up to a point. Partly the membership (now over 600K and rising) gives a useful floor - £10m/year or so, depending on what rates they pay. Partly the CLPs do a lot of self-funding - Broxtowe has raised enough money for both this and the next election, though I realise this is much harder in less prosperous areas.
But the megabucks that CCHQ has to spend on Facebook etc. are not there. Fortunately they turned out to be less effective than expected. It would be interesting to discuss why. FWIW, my theory is that internet ads are nearly always interrupted by users within seconds or left to run while the user flips to another window. What really worked for the Tories in 2015 was carefully-prepared microtargeting - George Smith at 17 Acacia Ave is worried about Scotland, let's send him a letter about that. With a snap election there was no time for that.
Thank you, that's quite complimentary. I have to point out that others, including Casino_Royale and you, were wise enough to not dismiss the YouGov pol out of hand. OGH also implied a mode effect in play, which was another warning sign.
No problemo. To be honest, I know v little about polling methodology etc, and my reading of it, although I didn't actually say so, was that the swing to Labour was because of over sampling of the politically engaged. You pointed out that swing was from a pollster that had changed their methodology to include more politically disinterested, but I failed to join the dots. So I was probably right to highlight the problem but you were the one who spelt out the conclusion
Mike told me that some pollsters were making changes to do this also, surprising that he didn't help amend my article to point us towards value bets rather than binning it
Apparently Boris has been receiving calls, and stands ready if needed...
I'll be tearing up my membership card if that happens.
Caveat - unless he guarantees to deliver that £350m pw for the NHS - without that commitment he's toast as a leader to get behind as far as I'm concerned.
I'm sure it'll be an aspiration for any future Con leader. It should have been in Theresa's manifesto. I was surprised it wasn't...
Top Tory Nigel Evans added: “A manifesto should be about apple pie and cream but ours was laced with arsenic.”
In other words, don't be candid with the electorate about difficult decisions that need to be made in case it upsets them. I'm sure political parties won't in the future.
The lesson seems clear. It is very easy to tell what level of support a party has but very difficult to translate that into votes because it all depends on whether people actually end up going to the polling station. No surprise that the exit poll should be accurate - likelihood to vote is 100%
So why does the "losing" side always do not believe the exit poll at first?
One of the things coming out in 2017 as well as in 2015 is that the political parties themselves are not fully aware. John McDonnell was not exactly joining in with the exit poll at 10:01 pm. He was hedging his bets, so to speak.
Surely the massive swings would have been detected at constituency level ?
It's not so much that they don't believe it, more that they're always a bit shocked by it, which is understandable.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
Labourites should lay off and keep their counsel. Let her fudge with the frothing bigots from NI and sack her backroom team. Let her execute the retoxification strategy. Never - never! - interrupt your opponent when she is making a mistake.
Apparently Boris has been receiving calls, and stands ready if needed...
If they think that Boris is the answer, then they are asking the wrong question! I still maintain that Michael Gove did the right thing despite the huge personal political hit he took as a result of his actions. Seriously, anyone within the PCP who has not already taken on board the very clear reasons behind Gove's doubts about Boris's lack of Leadership abilities should now be worried that he is even letting this kind of destabilising briefing drip out.
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
The strengthening of support for the Union is the one big positive from this election (and in the long run, perhaps the most important outcome).
I'd prefer May to go in months, rather than weeks, like Michael Howard did. No good decisions get made in haste.
@AidanKerrTweets: Conservative peer Lord Dunlop has resigned as a junior Scotland Office minister following the election of more than 1 Scottish Tory MP.
Re MANSFIELD I live in the adjacent constituency (Ashfield) but the result is not such a great surprise as it might seem from outside. "Sir" Alan Meale has been MP for the last 30 years, sine the days when the constituency was in the gift of the National Union of Mineworkers. The feeling seemed to be that he has done alright for himself, not so well for Mansfield. Things have changed around here: recently the Mayor of Mansfield was an Independent, whereas at one time he would have had to be Labour. Also the question of Brexit is important, as Alan Meale was for Remain, and this is a strong area for Leave. It was known that he was under threat, and so it came to pass.
The results in the east Midlands seems to have gone very different from the rest of the country. you say the result from Mansfield was partly down to the local MP but Ashfield was vey close aswell. Why did the tories almost GAIN Ashfield as well at the same time as losing High Peak?
On a brighter note, I don't think England will be leaving out Rashid again any time soon - and their is a decent prospect of knocking Australia out of the tournament this afternoon.
Apparently Boris has been receiving calls, and stands ready if needed...
I'll be tearing up my membership card if that happens.
Caveat - unless he guarantees to deliver that £350m pw for the NHS - without that commitment he's toast as a leader to get behind as far as I'm concerned.
I;m sure it'll be an aspiration for any future Con leader. It should have been in Theresa's manifesto.
I was surprised it wasn't...
They forgot that public services existed. Had very little to say on the NHS. Had very little to say on education that was truly positive and aspirational. Nothing much at all on transport policy, unless I missed it.
The NHS won it for the leave campaign. It needed to be a greater focus rather than nebulous stuff on trade relationships and goods and services.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
Pretty sure most of his party realised he'd resign if leave won. Bizarrely plenty of them were happy for it to happen as were many Tories on here.
For the record, I am not a PB Tory, more of an old-fashioned pre-SDP Liberal, so very much in a minority.
I wonder if those who were happy that he resigned are happy with what we have now.
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
The strengthening of support for the Union is the one big positive from this election (and in the long run, perhaps the most important outcome).
I'd prefer May to go in months, rather than weeks, like Michael Howard did. No good decisions get made in haste.
I'm trying to work out the logistics of what will happen if this attempted DUP thing crashes away very quickly, as appearances begin to suggest that it might.
@AidanKerrTweets: Conservative peer Lord Dunlop has resigned as a junior Scotland Office minister following the election of more than 1 Scottish Tory MP.
Never mind finally being able to ditch that Pandas joke, its great to know that we now not only have more than enough MPs to fill the Scottish Office, we can also help out elsewhere if needed!
Peak Corbyn, massive offers of 'free' goodies, terrible PM, worst Tory manifesto in history - and they still got 317 seats.
Labour got 262 seats.
Forget the vote share, this is FPTP, and the only thing that matters is seat share.
Almost letting a group of economically illiterate extremists to steal the keys to Downing Street is unforgivable, but Corbyn's 'surge' will dissipate, and he will go on being what he has always been.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
After the referendum campaign he had lead, which was so strong on how disastrous Brexit would be, it was not feasible for him to remain as PM tom implement Brexit (this is incidentally one reason why referenda are a silly idea).
It's therefore mystifying that the Tories didn't choose a Leaver, but that can partly be explained by the Gove-Boris fight.
It's possible that, after the Tories failed to win a GE on a platform of a hard Brexit, with a very hostile stance towards the EU, that we might now end up with a committed Leaver as PM. Funny old world.
So Survation underestimated Tory support yet again? Ahem. Well played.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
The strengthening of support for the Union is the one big positive from this election (and in the long run, perhaps the most important outcome).
I'd prefer May to go in months, rather than weeks, like Michael Howard did. No good decisions get made in haste.
Yes, at least now we can say we have a government that has some measure of support from all of the home nations.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
Pretty sure most of his party realised he'd resign if leave won. Bizarrely plenty of them were happy for it to happen as were many Tories on here.
For the record, I am not a PB Tory, more of an old-fashioned pre-SDP Liberal, so very much in a minority.
I wonder if those who were happy that he resigned are happy with what we have now.
I take responsibility for my part in this election campaign, which was the oversight of our policy programme. In particular, I regret the decision not to include in the manifesto a ceiling as well as a floor in our proposal to help meet the increasing cost of social care.
But I would like to make clear that the bizarre media reports about my own role in the policy’s inclusion are wrong: it had been the subject of many months of work within Whitehall, and it was not my personal pet project. I chose not to rebut these reports as they were published, as to have done so would have been a distraction for the campaign.
But I take responsibility for the content of the whole manifesto, which I continue to believe is an honest and strong programme for government.
From today's Times: "John Godfrey, the No 10 policy chief had spent months working on a cap to social care costs, but saw it ripped up in favour of a floor..." Apparently the ripping was at least partly Timothy's decision.
(Incidentally, I must apologise for assuming previously that Godfrey bore some responsibility for the fuckup.)
So basically Timothy's self-exculpatory statement appears to be disingenuous bollocks.
Yes.
I think that one decision is probably the second worst of the whole election campaign, the first being calling the bloody election in the first place.
@AidanKerrTweets: Conservative peer Lord Dunlop has resigned as a junior Scotland Office minister following the election of more than 1 Scottish Tory MP.
Never mind finally being able to ditch that Pandas joke, its great to know that we now not only have more than enough MPs to fill the Scottish Office, we can also help out elsewhere if needed!
Presumably he makes way for an elected Tory MP to fill the position as junior Scotland Office Minister.
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
The practical way forward for the next two years as the Brexit clock ticks down is to ditch all contentious legislation, focus on Brexit, and build a cross party consensus with a large majority to deliver it. That means consulting with Team Corbyn. May is temperamentally incapable of that. It needs Davis or Hammond to be in charge.
I suspect Corbyn is temperamentally incapable of that.
Oh and one other clear winner from the election is the great British public. The increased participation, especially by the young, is extremely healthy for our democracy even if it did what is loosely my team no favours this time.
It seems ironic when this is exactly what Corbyn did but just maybe the day of bribing the oldies and neglecting the next generation just might be over. That would be a huge long term gain for the UK.
All this talk of Labour's vote being inefficient reminds me of "the Democrats have an advantage in the EC", it's all nonsense ofcourse, the coalition of voters change reguarly at elections.
@AidanKerrTweets: Conservative peer Lord Dunlop has resigned as a junior Scotland Office minister following the election of more than 1 Scottish Tory MP.
Er, not sure what the thinking is behind that decision, sounds counterintuitive…
@skynewsniall: Advisers gone, majority vanished, DUP deal, no reshuffle, leadership contenders on manoeuvres. Seriously, how much "reflection" is required?
Not a good look to let backroom staff carry the can. Tories still don't get it.
I think most of us want her out.
It's not just May. There are deeper problems with Conservatism today. Not for the first time Europe has caused the Tories real problems. Two leaders post Brexit.
I dunno about that. I agree with you in that Mrs Mays spell as PM achieved absolutely nothing, no policy that was followed through and no vision. And said so many times. However when the alternative is Corbyn what choice is there? Particularly given the Lib Dems bizarre positioning.
Thanks to honorable Dave's decision to resign.
You are obviously never going to accept that he may have made a mistake and that's fine.
Personally, I think he made a catastrophic error. I think he could have commanded a lot of respect by facing up to the referendum result and 'getting on with the job', to quote one of his cliches.
What was the catastrophic error? I imagine he felt somewhat miffed that he delivered the majority the Tories hadn't won since 1992 and within 6 months the same cretins who had buggered Major up were up to their tricks again?
The error was resigning and forcing the party into an unneeded leadership contest after a devisive referendum of his devising. He said he wouldn't resign and then did. He left everybody in the lurch.
Pretty sure most of his party realised he'd resign if leave won. Bizarrely plenty of them were happy for it to happen as were many Tories on here.
For the record, I am not a PB Tory, more of an old-fashioned pre-SDP Liberal, so very much in a minority.
I wonder if those who were happy that he resigned are happy with what we have now.
I doubt it but they'll never admit it.
I was reflecting on the fact this morning, that if one decides to stay in the aftermath of a setback (as May has) one can always change ones mind if it becomes clear that it was a mistake or that you don't have the support. As May may do.
If you resign immediately then there's no turning back. If Cameron had only been persuaded to think about it over the weekend then he may have decided to stay... and the world (mine at least) would be a happier place.
Miss Fitalass, it's just a shame Ruth Davidson can't be PM.
"Scotland saved the Conservatives. #Unexpectedplottwists"
Her or Osborne would be the stand out candidates. If only the daft sod hadn't buggered off to indulge his vendetta (as I wrote yesterday, I wonder if he regrets harming his own side with his newspaper shenanigans, or feels his mockery was vindicated by the woeful performance).
Labour yes, up to a point. Partly the membership (now over 600K and rising) gives a useful floor - £10m/year or so, depending on what rates they pay. Partly the CLPs do a lot of self-funding - Broxtowe has raised enough money for both this and the next election, though I realise this is much harder in less prosperous areas.
But the megabucks that CCHQ has to spend on Facebook etc. are not there. Fortunately they turned out to be less effective than expected. It would be interesting to discuss why. FWIW, my theory is that internet ads are nearly always interrupted by users within seconds or left to run while the user flips to another window. What really worked for the Tories in 2015 was carefully-prepared microtargeting - George Smith at 17 Acacia Ave is worried about Scotland, let's send him a letter about that. With a snap election there was no time for that.
Am I the only one that finds this type of targeting creepy?
Apparently Boris has been receiving calls, and stands ready if needed...
If they think that Boris is the answer, then they are asking the wrong question! I still maintain that Michael Gove did the right thing despite the huge personal political hit he took as a result of his actions. Seriously, anyone within the PCP who has not already taken on board the very clear reasons behind Gove's doubts about Boris's lack of Leadership abilities should now be worried that he is even letting this kind of destabilising briefing drip out.
Given you apparently couldn't see what an complete and utter disaster the WFA and Death Tax policies were one does have to question your political judgement Lass.
Labour yes, up to a point. Partly the membership (now over 600K and rising) gives a useful floor - £10m/year or so, depending on what rates they pay. Partly the CLPs do a lot of self-funding - Broxtowe has raised enough money for both this and the next election, though I realise this is much harder in less prosperous areas.
But the megabucks that CCHQ has to spend on Facebook etc. are not there. Fortunately they turned out to be less effective than expected. It would be interesting to discuss why. FWIW, my theory is that internet ads are nearly always interrupted by users within seconds or left to run while the user flips to another window. What really worked for the Tories in 2015 was carefully-prepared microtargeting - George Smith at 17 Acacia Ave is worried about Scotland, let's send him a letter about that. With a snap election there was no time for that.
Am I the only one that finds this type of targeting creepy?
It's sophisticated and it exists. Therefore the parties can't ignore it. It sells you car insurance and tells you about music you might like, so why not a government?
Survation and YouGov faced lots of ridicule from the experts. Even here on PB.
All have gone quiet.
I was - and still am - critical of You Gov's change of methodology for their final poll. But I always maintained that it was much healthier to have pollsters giving different polls.
Comments
GE. Labour 41%
I think we're someway off peak YouGov.
Labour's votes are in the wrong places after 2018. A win on the popular vote for Labour could still mean a Tory majority. Cameron and Osborne really were master tacticians.
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/873153967940829184
Aye, I was one of the many who thought YouGov/Survation would be some way off.
I do think there's a danger with both politics and polling of viewing things through the prism of the last war. Next time, things are always a little different.
Some possibilities for the next election:
Referendum revenge abates, natural Conservatives return home
Complacent voters see real risk of Corbyn, vote blue
Enthused younger generation turn out at a similar rate, Labour share remains strong or improves
Labour gets improved tactical voting in Scotland
UKIP bounce back as any deal won't be Kipper enough for some, primarily harms the Conservatives
Lord Buckethead becomes Prime Minister and leads the nation to a new Golden Age
I appreciate you think differently.
I've just remembered that the DUP leader isbat the centre of the cash for ash scandal.
I live in the adjacent constituency (Ashfield) but the result is not such a great surprise as it might seem from outside. "Sir" Alan Meale has been MP for the last 30 years, sine the days when the constituency was in the gift of the National Union of Mineworkers. The feeling seemed to be that he has done alright for himself, not so well for Mansfield.
Things have changed around here: recently the Mayor of Mansfield was an Independent, whereas at one time he would have had to be Labour. Also the question of Brexit is important, as Alan Meale was for Remain, and this is a strong area for Leave. It was known that he was under threat, and so it came to pass.
My thoughts on the election having had some sleep.
Scotland extremely satisfactory. Only 2 very narrow results in Perth and Fife NE stopped it being pretty much perfect. Indyref2 is gone and won't come back short of an SNP majority in Holyrood. This was the most important thing for me so despite the overall picture I still have the grin I got on my face when the result from Gordon came in.
Nationally, this is not much short of a disaster. A coalition with the DUP almost turns my stomach. Ruth, who tweeted a reference to her gay marriage speech in Belfast, is once again spot on. I would prefer a minority government and if it goes down so be it.
May really has to go within weeks. She needs to acknowledge that this is inevitable and start to work on the handover. Going into another election with her is simply inconceivable and another election could happen at any time (see previous paragraph).
The replacement is trickier. Hammond is a possibility but we have no idea how he would do in an election since he took no part in this one. Personally I would go for Hunt, an assured media performer. Whoever it is it has to be a more cabinet based government, a team effort.
Going forward, for as long as this government lasts, Brexit has to be the sole focus. Everything else has to be on the backburner as it should have been during the campaign of course. Stripped down, steady government focussed on the important stuff. No frills, no diversions, minimal legislation, just Brexit on the best possible terms.
Caveat - unless he guarantees to deliver that £350m pw for the NHS - without that commitment he's toast as a leader to get behind as far as I'm concerned.
Yet another of the great advertising poster own goals........
https://b0wie.s3.amazonaws.com/styles/tb-wall-dynamic-style/s3/NOTHINSUCKS.jpg?lR4NxQu3cioC84JpekR3KXgHtHqn9D.G&itok=yJ2o10XQ
I think one reason the attacks on Corbyn were ineffective was because hardly any under 35s read newspapers. They get their news from websites. And If you go to a site like Mail Online you'll see that even in an election, celebrity tittle tattle is usually the most prominent rather than political stuff, presumably as it draws more visitors.
Of course, it could also be due to Momentum activists buying and burning all the copies of the Sun....!
Personally can't see that working out until the Tories are booted on to the Opposition benches (which could happen at any moment of course)
I would like to see a statement from May that Davis will start the Brexit process going as the lead negotiator, and that she will oversee the first few months as a caretaker. But she acknowledges the bad result and cannot remain as leader. Leadership contest over the summer, new leader in place for the conference season.
Her position is untenable. If she tries to hang on she will do tremendous damage.
But the megabucks that CCHQ has to spend on Facebook etc. are not there. Fortunately they turned out to be less effective than expected. It would be interesting to discuss why. FWIW, my theory is that internet ads are nearly always interrupted by users within seconds or left to run while the user flips to another window. What really worked for the Tories in 2015 was carefully-prepared microtargeting - George Smith at 17 Acacia Ave is worried about Scotland, let's send him a letter about that. With a snap election there was no time for that.
Mike told me that some pollsters were making changes to do this also, surprising that he didn't help amend my article to point us towards value bets rather than binning it
Boris as leader would be horrendous. And hasn't Ruth Davidson said she'd leave if he were leader? If SCon MPs followed her, it'd be sub-optimal.
I'd prefer May to go in months, rather than weeks, like Michael Howard did. No good decisions get made in haste.
The NHS won it for the leave campaign. It needed to be a greater focus rather than nebulous stuff on trade relationships and goods and services.
I wonder if those who were happy that he resigned are happy with what we have now.
Labour got 262 seats.
Forget the vote share, this is FPTP, and the only thing that matters is seat share.
Almost letting a group of economically illiterate extremists to steal the keys to Downing Street is unforgivable, but Corbyn's 'surge' will dissipate, and he will go on being what he has always been.
His apologists need to get real.
It's therefore mystifying that the Tories didn't choose a Leaver, but that can partly be explained by the Gove-Boris fight.
It's possible that, after the Tories failed to win a GE on a platform of a hard Brexit, with a very hostile stance towards the EU, that we might now end up with a committed Leaver as PM. Funny old world.
I think that one decision is probably the second worst of the whole election campaign, the first being calling the bloody election in the first place.
It seems ironic when this is exactly what Corbyn did but just maybe the day of bribing the oldies and neglecting the next generation just might be over. That would be a huge long term gain for the UK.
https://twitter.com/brtnelexben/status/873513742075650049
But that is hilarious.
• command a commons majority
• reshuffle her cabinet
• keep her advisors
But still wants to negotiate Brexit.
[edit: BBC now reporting story]
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-40233030
If you resign immediately then there's no turning back. If Cameron had only been persuaded to think about it over the weekend then he may have decided to stay... and the world (mine at least) would be a happier place.
"Scotland saved the Conservatives. #Unexpectedplottwists"
Her or Osborne would be the stand out candidates. If only the daft sod hadn't buggered off to indulge his vendetta (as I wrote yesterday, I wonder if he regrets harming his own side with his newspaper shenanigans, or feels his mockery was vindicated by the woeful performance).
Oh, hi, BTW.
Now.