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  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Without wanting to go all DavidL

    England are on course to knock Australia out of the Champions Trophy.

    How awesome is that?

    After Salmond and Robertson, it's another tragedy.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    jonny83 said:

    Thoughts on who would be the best Stop Boris candidate?

    I'd have thought Hammond is in a good position. The fact of his having being sidelined during the campaign will now be to his advantage.
    Sorry, Hammond would almost certainly not beat Corbyn, he is too dull and establishment for the current mood of the electorate and like May was a Remainer and as Chancellor is wedded to austerity, if a little less than Osborne, Boris is charismatic and populist and the only viable option
    Boris means a Corbyn government. It's that simple.
    Completely wrong, not Boris means a Corbyn government. It's that simple. Eg on London news yesterday they had a woman who said she would have voted for Boris though she did not vote for May
    We have a circus already. We do not need to put a clown in charge.

    If the Tory party thinks government is such a joke -- they will be simply thrashed by Corbyn. Even I would vote Labour in that scenario (I have never done so).
    and as you are hardly a regular Tory voter losing your support makes little difference if it gains votes from elsewhere
    Yeah this strategy of alienating moderates like Gardenwalker in the hopes of gaining socially conservative voters has been an unmitigated disaster and back fired badly.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    atia2 said:

    blueblue said:

    atia2 said:

    The Tories didn't realise that Brexit was basically an anti-incumbency vote. Going to the country again was madness. They misread the reasons for the first result and I'm confident they will misread the reasons for the second. It will be wonderful to watch their fall.

    You are aware that after Labour's best campaign ever, and the Tories' worst, the far left nutters are still 64 seats away from a majority?
    Largest increase popular vote since 1945, achieved from a standing start against a hostile press and a hostile parliamentary party. Just wait until Labour gets its shit together. The Tories are toast.

    I'm looking forward to Corbyn's first appearance in Parliament. The jokes are over. He is now the most authoritative person on the green benches.
    64 seats short of a majority after the Tories spent the election punching their own voters in the face. I'm a natural pessimist (hence the name), but if the Tories reverse those crappy tactics it makes the push for a Labour majority less than straightforward.

    Not to mention that next time Labour will receive actual scrutiny about what having Corbyn in charge of the nukes an Abbott in charge of MI5 would really mean. How many votes were essentially pity shags intended to save the party from the annihilation predicted by the polls?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635

    Pulpstar said:

    Well that lot looks alot better for Labour than the post 2015 position.
    It's extraordinary to see from that just how close Labour were to being largest Party.
    I'm telling you now, there are a fair few normal non voters in that Tory total who won't bother normally for the Tories. They voted for Brexit, they voted for May. That will be IT methinks so far as the deal goes.
    They won't bother in the autumn.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    Don't forget all her actual achievements in government amounting to ...
    There was that time she brilliantly abstained on the Name Person Bill. And then took credit for a bunch of religious nutters challenging it in court.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Without wanting to go all DavidL

    England are on course to knock Australia out of the Champions Trophy.

    How awesome is that?

    After Salmond and Robertson, it's another tragedy.
    Still proud of my 'Salmond filleted' pun on election night.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Well that lot looks alot better for Labour than the post 2015 position.
    It's extraordinary to see from that just how close Labour were to being largest Party.
    I'm telling you now, there are a fair few normal non voters in that Tory total who won't bother normally for the Tories. They voted for Brexit, they voted for May. That will be IT methinks so far as the deal goes.
    They won't bother in the autumn.
    I fear that you're right on that. But if the country wants Jezza, I say let them have him.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,537
    Its 50/50.

    The path of least resistance is probably now no Brexit.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Given that Scotland are shite at football England are looking stupidly shakey at the back.
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    HYUFD said:

    atia2 said:

    HYUFD said:


    Completely wrong, not Boris means a Corbyn government. It's that simple. Eg on London news yesterday they had a woman who said she would have voted for Boris though she did not vote for May

    One whole woman? Wow!
    Well show me 1 person who did not vote for May and would vote for Rudd, Fallon or Hammond in a swing seat?
    To prove what? That "not Boris means a Corbyn government." Don't be silly. That's a hypothesis that can be argued for only logically, not empirically.

    Individual anecdotes can be amusing but seldom generalise well. I was door knocking in Brentford & Isleworth on election day. One gentleman, a long time Labour voter and Corbyn fan, voted Tory because the Labour candidate refused to put Corbyn on her leaflets. I praised his principled stand, but we still turned a 400 vote majority into 12,000.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497
    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    kyf_100 said:

    atia2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The only Tory who is actually thinking long term. We need to get Labour, at least, involved with Brexit negotiations. We didn't win a majority, the public have not endorsed our Brexit plan (as vague as that was). It wouldn't be correct for the Conservatives to now push ahead with the Tory Brexit plan without any Labour input. We didn't win a mandate for it during the Brexit election.

    Theresa should have had an alternative speech on Friday morning.

    "Last night was a difficult night for myself and my party, though we finished with more votes than the opposition and the most seats in Parliament, it is clear that the British public have not given us their full endorsement for our Brexit plan. For that reason I will resign as party leader and PM once I have put a queens speech through parliament and trigger a leadership election within the Conservative party. I will stay on as PM and leader in the interim and will ask Labour's Brexit representative Kier Starmer to join a cross party Brexit negotiation committee to get the process of Brexit started before the next PM has been elected by my party."

    That speech would have salvaged what little she has left of her reputation. Instead she is shaming our party and country by clinging on.
    I agree that would have been the right move. Unfortunately it would have required a Tory to put their country ahead of their party. Never gonna happen.
    Sad but true. A huge +1 for MaxPB's post.
    Blimey, yes. I think that would have been sensible.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Without wanting to go all DavidL

    England are on course to knock Australia out of the Champions Trophy.

    How awesome is that?

    After Salmond and Robertson, it's another tragedy.
    Still proud of my 'Salmond filleted' pun on election night.
    How much did you make on your Salmond stake?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    nunu said:

    blueblue said:

    atia2 said:

    The Tories didn't realise that Brexit was basically an anti-incumbency vote. Going to the country again was madness. They misread the reasons for the first result and I'm confident they will misread the reasons for the second. It will be wonderful to watch their fall.

    You are aware that after Labour's best campaign ever, and the Tories' worst, the far left nutters are still 64 seats away from a majority?
    and very close to a majority. Scotland is an inch away from being dominated by Labour again, go look at some of the SNP central belt majorities, likewise I think someone posted here earlier about a list of 63 seats labour would gain on the smallest of swings. And if Boris was elected leader Labour would be nailed on to win in 2022.

    Anna Soubry should of lost on Thurday considering the other seats that were lost, tories would do well to reflect on the campaign she ran in her constituency. I am saying this as LEAVER who leans Tory. The going after the UKIP vote strategy has beeen a complete disaster and cost Tories safe seats like Kensington.
    The last Yougov poll of voters in June 2016 asking who would be the best Tory leader had May on 19%, Boris 18%, Gove 5%, Fox 3%, Crabb 2%, Leadsom 1%, Osborne 3%. That says it all
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2016#Opinion_polling
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215

    Without wanting to go all DavidL

    England are on course to knock Australia out of the Champions Trophy.

    How awesome is that?

    Just unbelievable batting. Basically England are bowled out from here or they win.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    If the next Tory leadership contest was Ruth Davidson vs George Osborne, I'd be voting Ruth.

    That's how awesome she is.

    She'd absolutely batter Corbyn at PMQs every week for starters.

    She'd not duck any of the debates.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    TOPPING said:

    Yorkcity said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    You'd think this was 1997, from some comments.

    Context is everything Sean.

    Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
    True to say we have political experts on here.Did anyone bet on a hung parliament ?
    Yes. Me. And I told people on here.
    You also told us that it would be a 40-70 majority.

    Okay, that's a bit unfair, there's value in betting on things if you think their odds are longer than their likelihood.

    But I think there's always more value in the constituency bets than on straight majority betting.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    The smallest majorities. SNP were quite lucky in the end. If the election was next week they would probably have lost another eight seats, mostly to Labour. In England Labour managed 7 wins with majorities of under 300.

    https://ukelect.wordpress.com/2017/06/09/2017-parliament-the-tighest-marginals/
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Well that lot looks alot better for Labour than the post 2015 position.
    It's extraordinary to see from that just how close Labour were to being largest Party.
    I'm telling you now, there are a fair few normal non voters in that Tory total who won't bother normally for the Tories. They voted for Brexit, they voted for May. That will be IT methinks so far as the deal goes.
    They won't bother in the autumn.
    I think you have to try and put off holding another election for at least a couple of years. And if Brexit is a disaster then they could be finished anyway.

    Far too many warning signs from this election, simply saying a crap Manifesto and campaign under a poor leader purely led to this is silly. Real danger signs there that might be ignored.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Batshit Brexit central...

    @LordAshcroft: The Government should consider including @KateHoeyMP somewhere in the Brexit team...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    kyf_100 said:

    atia2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    The only Tory who is actually thinking long term. We need to get Labour, at least, involved with Brexit negotiations. We didn't win a majority, the public have not endorsed our Brexit plan (as vague as that was). It wouldn't be correct for the Conservatives to now push ahead with the Tory Brexit plan without any Labour input. We didn't win a mandate for it during the Brexit election.

    Theresa should have had an alternative speech on Friday morning.

    "Last night was a difficult night for myself and my party, though we finished with more votes than the opposition and the most seats in Parliament, it is clear that the British public have not given us their full endorsement for our Brexit plan. For that reason I will resign as party leader and PM once I have put a queens speech through parliament and trigger a leadership election within the Conservative party. I will stay on as PM and leader in the interim and will ask Labour's Brexit representative Kier Starmer to join a cross party Brexit negotiation committee to get the process of Brexit started before the next PM has been elected by my party."

    That speech would have salvaged what little she has left of her reputation. Instead she is shaming our party and country by clinging on.
    I agree that would have been the right move. Unfortunately it would have required a Tory to put their country ahead of their party. Never gonna happen.
    Sad but true. A huge +1 for MaxPB's post.
    It was a good comment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    jonny83 said:

    Thoughts on who would be the best Stop Boris candidate?

    I'd have thought Hammond is in a good position. The fact of his having being sidelined during the campaign will now be to his advantage.
    Sorry, Hammond would almost certainly not beat Corbyn, he is too dull and establishment for the current mood of the electorate and like May was a Remainer and as Chancellor is wedded to austerity, if a little less than Osborne, Boris is charismatic and populist and the only viable option
    Boris means a Corbyn government. It's that simple.
    Completely wrong, not Boris means a Corbyn government. It's that simple. Eg on London news yesterday they had a woman who said she would have voted for Boris though she did not vote for May
    We have a circus already. We do not need to put a clown in charge.

    If the Tory party thinks government is such a joke -- they will be simply thrashed by Corbyn. Even I would vote Labour in that scenario (I have never done so).
    and as you are hardly a regular Tory voter losing your support makes little difference if it gains votes from elsewhere
    Yeah this strategy of alienating moderates like Gardenwalker in the hopes of gaining socially conservative voters has been an unmitigated disaster and back fired badly.
    Boris is not a social conservative and Gardenwalker voted Remain when 52% of the country voted Leave
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    She has indubitably attracted SNP/Leave voters over to Conservative. A vastly impressive feat.

    To now turn around and signal Brexit in name only is a sensationally brave move.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    DavidL said:

    Without wanting to go all DavidL

    England are on course to knock Australia out of the Champions Trophy.

    How awesome is that?

    Just unbelievable batting. Basically England are bowled out from here or they win.
    I remember when we used to be happy when England got to 200/3 after 40 overs.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    blueblue said:

    atia2 said:

    blueblue said:

    atia2 said:

    The Tories didn't realise that Brexit was basically an anti-incumbency vote. Going to the country again was madness. They misread the reasons for the first result and I'm confident they will misread the reasons for the second. It will be wonderful to watch their fall.

    You are aware that after Labour's best campaign ever, and the Tories' worst, the far left nutters are still 64 seats away from a majority?
    Largest increase popular vote since 1945, achieved from a standing start against a hostile press and a hostile parliamentary party. Just wait until Labour gets its shit together. The Tories are toast.

    I'm looking forward to Corbyn's first appearance in Parliament. The jokes are over. He is now the most authoritative person on the green benches.
    64 seats short of a majority after the Tories spent the election punching their own voters in the face. I'm a natural pessimist (hence the name), but if the Tories reverse those crappy tactics it makes the push for a Labour majority less than straightforward.

    Not to mention that next time Labour will receive actual scrutiny about what having Corbyn in charge of the nukes an Abbott in charge of MI5 would really mean. How many votes were essentially pity shags intended to save the party from the annihilation predicted by the polls?
    How many pity shags turn into long term relationships as a result of apathy/familiarity tho?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    isam said:
    Only best increase in vote by any party since 1945
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Kane is a greedy sod.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,537
    Hard Brexiter starts to recant (at least is setting up the rationale to recant).
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/873574559252975618
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    She is a proper Jedi in my book.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497
    atia2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    atia2 said:

    HYUFD said:


    Completely wrong, not Boris means a Corbyn government. It's that simple. Eg on London news yesterday they had a woman who said she would have voted for Boris though she did not vote for May

    One whole woman? Wow!
    Well show me 1 person who did not vote for May and would vote for Rudd, Fallon or Hammond in a swing seat?
    To prove what? That "not Boris means a Corbyn government." Don't be silly. That's a hypothesis that can be argued for only logically, not empirically.

    Individual anecdotes can be amusing but seldom generalise well. I was door knocking in Brentford & Isleworth on election day. One gentleman, a long time Labour voter and Corbyn fan, voted Tory because the Labour candidate refused to put Corbyn on her leaflets. I praised his principled stand, but we still turned a 400 vote majority into 12,000.
    That's hilarious, and one vote you should get back next time round!
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806

    run the contry ?

    my arse

    heres what could have been done in 7 years of Tories in governemnt

    did we build a million homes - no
    did we get a high speed broadband network - no
    did we get a basic motorway network - no
    have our modernists reformed the house of Lords - no
    have we got a high skill high wage economy - no
    have wages risen - no
    have we built the infrastructure to accommodate anther 4 million people - no

    back in 2010 when you were rightly attacking Brown for doing bugger all little did you imagine your own mob would be just as bad And they are as bad since that list still all has to be done

    and as for the voters well its clear you just dont understand them.








    A significant part of restrictions on the government was/is the godawful mess left by Labour. The government has to fund the public services as generously as it can but must reduce the deficit (and ultimately the debt) so that in future the billions spent on interest on the county's debt can be used to provide things that the people really need.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Yeah I've cursed England haven't I.
  • atia2atia2 Posts: 207
    blueblue said:


    How many votes were essentially pity shags intended to save the party from the annihilation predicted by the polls?

    The Tories want to believe this. I don't think it's true. The simpler explanations - that they preferred Jeremy's answers to questions and that they preferred the policies in the Labour manifesto - are more likely to be the true ones.

    People don't vote for political parties out of pity or to avoid their annihilation. If they did, LD would have done much better in 2015.

    Stop trying to contort simple realities to fit your own political preconceptions. It's bad for betting.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439

    Hard Brexiter starts to recant (at least is setting up the rationale to recant).
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/873574559252975618

    I'd vote for Jezza to secure Brexit if the Tories backtrack.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Scott_P said:

    Batshit Brexit central...

    @LordAshcroft: The Government should consider including @KateHoeyMP somewhere in the Brexit team...

    That reminds me.

    What were all those lies being pedalled about LibDems close to winning Vauxhall and Witney.

    Were they coming from the LibDems or Remainer nutters.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Incredible number of marginals. Have to get down to number 80 to hit a 5% majority. The Tories should be very worried.

    I said on the previous thread that having let Corbyn get his foot in the door he will charge through it next time. I also think Labour will become the biggest party again in Scotland.
    Loughborough remains the bellwether. Get that and you get the keys to Downing St.

    Interesting to note that none of the Lab target marginals are LD, all are Tory or SNP.

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    What we need is a joint committee now to implement Brexit not May. The softest of softs Brexits. This is what the public voted for.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    jonny83 said:

    Adam West has died, most famous for playing Batman in the 60's on TV.

    Martin Boon better not tweet "KABOOM"
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    The Brexit vote was cross-party. Why isn't the UK Brexit team cross-party? (If it had been, we would of course have been spared the farce of the last six weeks.) Brexiteers should be calling for Corbyn and Starmer to be on board - they might not get exactly the Brexit they want, but at least they'll get Brexit. Sensible Remainers should want it too - the Brexit process will do much less damage if it isn't a political football.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,537
    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    jonny83 said:

    Thoughts on who would be the best Stop Boris candidate?

    I'd have thought Hammond is in a good position. The fact of his having being sidelined during the campaign will now be to his advantage.
    Sorry, Hammond would almost certainly not beat Corbyn, he is too dull and establishment for the current mood of the electorate and like May was a Remainer and as Chancellor is wedded to austerity, if a little less than Osborne, Boris is charismatic and populist and the only viable option
    Boris means a Corbyn government. It's that simple.
    Completely wrong, not Boris means a Corbyn government. It's that simple. Eg on London news yesterday they had a woman who said she would have voted for Boris though she did not vote for May
    We have a circus already. We do not need to put a clown in charge.

    If the Tory party thinks government is such a joke -- they will be simply thrashed by Corbyn. Even I would vote Labour in that scenario (I have never done so).
    and as you are hardly a regular Tory voter losing your support makes little difference if it gains votes from elsewhere
    Yeah this strategy of alienating moderates like Gardenwalker in the hopes of gaining socially conservative voters has been an unmitigated disaster and back fired badly.
    Boris is not a social conservative and Gardenwalker voted Remain when 52% of the country voted Leave
    Yep. I'm a Tory Remainer.
    There was a lot of us, but May tried to paint us as the enemy within.

    As we see, it failed spectacularly.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    Incredible number of marginals. Have to get down to number 80 to hit a 5% majority. The Tories should be very worried.

    I said on the previous thread that having let Corbyn get his foot in the door he will charge through it next time. I also think Labour will become the biggest party again in Scotland.
    Loughborough remains the bellwether. Get that and you get the keys to Downing St.

    Interesting to note that none of the Lab target marginals are LD, all are Tory or SNP.

    #unspokenprogressivealliance
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    If the next Tory leadership contest was Ruth Davidson vs George Osborne, I'd be voting Ruth.

    That's how awesome she is.

    She'd absolutely batter Corbyn at PMQs every week for starters.

    She'd not duck any of the debates.
    Why all this sudden Ruth thing?

    The first thing she's done since the election is publicly ask for extra sweeties for her client LGTQWERTY base.

    Conservatives should be avoiding this depressing lefty tactic of dividing people into neat boxes.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274

    Scott_P said:

    Batshit Brexit central...

    @LordAshcroft: The Government should consider including @KateHoeyMP somewhere in the Brexit team...

    That reminds me.

    What were all those lies being pedalled about LibDems close to winning Vauxhall and Witney.

    Were they coming from the LibDems or Remainer nutters.
    @rcs1000 suggested people trying to shift betting markets.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062

    Pulpstar said:

    Ruth has correctly worked out that weak and wobbly can be pushed around at will. Arlene will be doing the same.
    May's position is looking utterly untenable, in fact the complete Tory party will do soon if they don't do *something*.

    Quite what I'm not sure though.

    Panic?
    Call another election. Jezza can do a Thomas Aquinus speech from Downing St. Incidentally well done. You saw JC's qualities when most were scrabbling in the dirt looking through his 25 year old diaries
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Is the DUP sort of like ukip with weapons?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    GIN1138 said:

    Hard Brexiter starts to recant (at least is setting up the rationale to recant).
    https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/873574559252975618

    I'd vote for Jezza to secure Brexit if the Tories backtrack.
    So would I. But really, really don't want to. We need a soft brexit now that parliament can pass.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Freggles said:

    Incredible number of marginals. Have to get down to number 80 to hit a 5% majority. The Tories should be very worried.

    I said on the previous thread that having let Corbyn get his foot in the door he will charge through it next time. I also think Labour will become the biggest party again in Scotland.
    Loughborough remains the bellwether. Get that and you get the keys to Downing St.

    Interesting to note that none of the Lab target marginals are LD, all are Tory or SNP.

    #unspokenprogressivealliance
    #notmanylibdemmps
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    She is a proper Jedi in my book.
    Labour should be mightily pleased that Conservative Party rules prevent her from standing for the Leadership.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Is the DUP sort of like ukip with weapons?

    No
  • Yesterday are showing the Auf Wiedersehen Pet episode where they vote on what colour to paint the hut.
    Barry: that's democracy Dennis, everybody gets what nobody wants.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    run the contry ?

    my arse

    heres what could have been done in 7 years of Tories in governemnt

    did we build a million homes - no
    did we get a high speed broadband network - no
    did we get a basic motorway network - no
    have our modernists reformed the house of Lords - no
    have we got a high skill high wage economy - no
    have wages risen - no
    have we built the infrastructure to accommodate anther 4 million people - no

    back in 2010 when you were rightly attacking Brown for doing bugger all little did you imagine your own mob would be just as bad And they are as bad since that list still all has to be done

    and as for the voters well its clear you just dont understand them.

    Plenty of Middle Eastern warmongering though.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    She has indubitably attracted SNP/Leave voters over to Conservative. A vastly impressive feat.

    To now turn around and signal Brexit in name only is a sensationally brave move.
    She was a particularly vocal and competent advocate for Remain.

    While she has come to conclude that Brexit has to go through, she wants Featherbed Soft Brexit.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    If the next Tory leadership contest was Ruth Davidson vs George Osborne, I'd be voting Ruth.

    That's how awesome she is.

    She'd absolutely batter Corbyn at PMQs every week for starters.

    She'd not duck any of the debates.
    Correct ranking.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111

    TOPPING said:

    Yorkcity said:

    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    You'd think this was 1997, from some comments.

    Context is everything Sean.

    Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
    True to say we have political experts on here.Did anyone bet on a hung parliament ?
    Yes. Me. And I told people on here.
    You also told us that it would be a 40-70 majority.

    Okay, that's a bit unfair, there's value in betting on things if you think their odds are longer than their likelihood.

    But I think there's always more value in the constituency bets than on straight majority betting.
    I reported back from what I was hearing, which was that they were still thinking a 40-70 majority. I don't think I commented on it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    She has indubitably attracted SNP/Leave voters over to Conservative. A vastly impressive feat.

    To now turn around and signal Brexit in name only is a sensationally brave move.
    She was a particularly vocal and competent advocate for Remain.

    While she has come to conclude that Brexit has to go through, she wants Featherbed Soft Brexit.
    Which isn't on offer.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Freggles said:

    Incredible number of marginals. Have to get down to number 80 to hit a 5% majority. The Tories should be very worried.

    I said on the previous thread that having let Corbyn get his foot in the door he will charge through it next time. I also think Labour will become the biggest party again in Scotland.
    Loughborough remains the bellwether. Get that and you get the keys to Downing St.

    Interesting to note that none of the Lab target marginals are LD, all are Tory or SNP.

    #unspokenprogressivealliance
    Though several LD targets are Labour!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited June 2017
    The new MP for Brighton Kemptwon is called Lloyd Russell-Moyle.
    And it's not a randomly generate name, he really exists.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    blueblue said:

    atia2 said:

    The Tories didn't realise that Brexit was basically an anti-incumbency vote. Going to the country again was madness. They misread the reasons for the first result and I'm confident they will misread the reasons for the second. It will be wonderful to watch their fall.

    You are aware that after Labour's best campaign ever, and the Tories' worst, the far left nutters are still 64 seats away from a majority?
    and very close to a majority. Scotland is an inch away from being dominated by Labour again, go look at some of the SNP central belt majorities, likewise I think someone posted here earlier about a list of 63 seats labour would gain on the smallest of swings. And if Boris was elected leader Labour would be nailed on to win in 2022.

    Anna Soubry should of lost on Thurday considering the other seats that were lost, tories would do well to reflect on the campaign she ran in her constituency. I am saying this as LEAVER who leans Tory. The going after the UKIP vote strategy has beeen a complete disaster and cost Tories safe seats like Kensington.
    The last Yougov poll of voters in June 2016 asking who would be the best Tory leader had May on 19%, Boris 18%, Gove 5%, Fox 3%, Crabb 2%, Leadsom 1%, Osborne 3%. That says it all
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2016#Opinion_polling
    Yes it does, Boris is 1% worse then the hopeless May.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Is it too simplistic to say that we are back to where we were in 2010, which is the natural state of affairs, and the only reason there was a Con Maj in 2015 was the serious threat of Lab+SNP?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Roger said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ruth has correctly worked out that weak and wobbly can be pushed around at will. Arlene will be doing the same.
    May's position is looking utterly untenable, in fact the complete Tory party will do soon if they don't do *something*.

    Quite what I'm not sure though.

    Panic?
    Call another election. Jezza can do a Thomas Aquinus speech from Downing St. Incidentally well done. You saw JC's qualities when most were scrabbling in the dirt looking through his 25 year old diaries
    His 'qualities' involve bribing voters with their own money. Next time I propose the Tories match and exceed Labour's ludicrous giveaways, and see what happens.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    kyf_100 said:

    atia2 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Theresa should have had an alternative speech on Friday morning.

    "Last night was a difficult night for myself and my party, though we finished with more votes than the opposition and the most seats in Parliament, it is clear that the British public have not given us their full endorsement for our Brexit plan. For that reason I will resign as party leader and PM once I have put a queens speech through parliament and trigger a leadership election within the Conservative party. I will stay on as PM and leader in the interim and will ask Labour's Brexit representative Kier Starmer to join a cross party Brexit negotiation committee to get the process of Brexit started before the next PM has been elected by my party."

    That speech would have salvaged what little she has left of her reputation. Instead she is shaming our party and country by clinging on.
    I agree that would have been the right move. Unfortunately it would have required a Tory to put their country ahead of their party. Never gonna happen.
    Sad but true. A huge +1 for MaxPB's post.
    It was a good comment.
    It was indeed a good suggestion. I said something similar was needed on a counter-terrorism review commission in the wake of London Bridge.

    Sadly it would also require the Labour party to put country above party and join in a non-partisan way.

    I fear neither party has the vision to see this at present - but it would be both the right thing to do, and also play very well with the voters at large.

    It goes like this:

    "OK folks, the country is deeply divided and divisive at present - Brexit, security, NHS and social care challenges. Leadership is about bringing the best talents together to solve problems in the national interest - and I am inviting Labour and the devolved administrations to join me in non-partisan commissions over the next 2 years to discuss and identify common ground on each. This will be the essence of my Queens Speech and I invite the other parties to support me".

    Zero to hero overnight. It saves her bacon for 2 years, and gives a platform for the next election that is detoxified. Most importantly it gives the chance in an unsettled parliament with a clearly restive electorate to make progress on contentious issues.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    NEW THREAD

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    "For a year and more the Daily Mail's editor towered over this country and a craven Tory party did his bidding. Now the electorate has stood up to him"

    https://www.byline.com/column/68/article/1721

    Tomorrow's MoS will be interesting. Does Grieg want May to go? I sense he does.

    Compare and contrast with Monday's DM for lolz.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,537

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    She has indubitably attracted SNP/Leave voters over to Conservative. A vastly impressive feat.

    To now turn around and signal Brexit in name only is a sensationally brave move.
    She was a particularly vocal and competent advocate for Remain.

    While she has come to conclude that Brexit has to go through, she wants Featherbed Soft Brexit.
    Which isn't on offer.
    Realistically now it must be something like:

    Featherbed Soft Brexit 40%
    WTO / Full North Korea 20%
    No Brexit 40%

    But FSB requires agency and leadership. The other two just require us to sit around and play musical chairs, which is basically all the Tory party has done for the past 12 months.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    tlg86 said:

    Scott_P said:

    Batshit Brexit central...

    @LordAshcroft: The Government should consider including @KateHoeyMP somewhere in the Brexit team...

    That reminds me.

    What were all those lies being pedalled about LibDems close to winning Vauxhall and Witney.

    Were they coming from the LibDems or Remainer nutters.
    @rcs1000 suggested people trying to shift betting markets.
    That might explain the stories about postal ballots being known.

    Or maybe some people just like attention seeking.

    They deserve to be discredited whoever they are.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    blueblue said:

    Roger said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ruth has correctly worked out that weak and wobbly can be pushed around at will. Arlene will be doing the same.
    May's position is looking utterly untenable, in fact the complete Tory party will do soon if they don't do *something*.

    Quite what I'm not sure though.

    Panic?
    Call another election. Jezza can do a Thomas Aquinus speech from Downing St. Incidentally well done. You saw JC's qualities when most were scrabbling in the dirt looking through his 25 year old diaries
    His 'qualities' involve bribing voters with their own money. Next time I propose the Tories match and exceed Labour's ludicrous giveaways, and see what happens.
    Rather foolish. Tories needed to play the ball this election, but chose to play the man.

    Concentrating on hard economic issues, rather than decades old newspaper cuttings would have saved their majority.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. P, glad the Hamster seems to be ok.

    Mr. 83, not played it, but heard much about it. Seems pretty popular.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    She has indubitably attracted SNP/Leave voters over to Conservative. A vastly impressive feat.

    To now turn around and signal Brexit in name only is a sensationally brave move.
    She was a particularly vocal and competent advocate for Remain.

    While she has come to conclude that Brexit has to go through, she wants Featherbed Soft Brexit.
    Which isn't on offer.
    Realistically now it must be something like:

    Featherbed Soft Brexit 40%
    WTO / Full North Korea 20%
    No Brexit 40%

    But FSB requires agency and leadership. The other two just require us to sit around and play musical chairs, which is basically all the Tory party has done for the past 12 months.
    Featherbed Soft Brexit isn't on offer.

    The EU will want money, it always wants money.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    She has indubitably attracted SNP/Leave voters over to Conservative. A vastly impressive feat.

    To now turn around and signal Brexit in name only is a sensationally brave move.
    She was a particularly vocal and competent advocate for Remain.

    While she has come to conclude that Brexit has to go through, she wants Featherbed Soft Brexit.
    Which isn't on offer.
    Realistically now it must be something like:

    Featherbed Soft Brexit 40%
    WTO / Full North Korea 20%
    No Brexit 40%

    But FSB requires agency and leadership. The other two just require us to sit around and play musical chairs, which is basically all the Tory party has done for the past 12 months.
    The problem is that the voters do seem keen on Featherbed Soft Brexit. Whatever the Tories achieve is going to be less than it. I agree that FSB is probably not possible as the EU would have to agree, but that just sets up the Tories to fail.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    atia2 said:

    blueblue said:


    How many votes were essentially pity shags intended to save the party from the annihilation predicted by the polls?

    The Tories want to believe this. I don't think it's true. The simpler explanations - that they preferred Jeremy's answers to questions and that they preferred the policies in the Labour manifesto - are more likely to be the true ones.

    People don't vote for political parties out of pity or to avoid their annihilation. If they did, LD would have done much better in 2015.

    Stop trying to contort simple realities to fit your own political preconceptions. It's bad for betting.
    I just told you I'm a colossal pessimist - my 'natural' view is that the government will collapse this year and Corbyn will sweep to a majority on the back of Tory exhaustion and promises to lavish half a trillion of free stuff on the public.

    But it remains a fact that parties that are considered serious contenders for power are scrutinized far more harshly than those with no chance. A not-insignificant number of people must have voted Labour for the sake of the party, but would not have if it meant Corbyn, Abbott, and McDonnell actually controlling Trident, MI5, and the economy. How large that number is is unknowable, but important.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    nunu said:

    HYUFD said:

    nunu said:

    blueblue said:

    atia2 said:

    The Tories didn't realise that Brexit was basically an anti-incumbency vote. Going to the country again was madness. They misread the reasons for the first result and I'm confident they will misread the reasons for the second. It will be wonderful to watch their fall.

    You are aware that after Labour's best campaign ever, and the Tories' worst, the far left nutters are still 64 seats away from a majority?
    and very close to a majority. Scotland is an inch away from being dominated by Labour again, go look at some of the SNP central belt majorities, likewise I think someone posted here earlier about a list of 63 seats labour would gain on the smallest of swings. And if Boris was elected leader Labour would be nailed on to win in 2022.

    Anna Soubry should of lost on Thurday considering the other seats that were lost, tories would do well to reflect on the campaign she ran in her constituency. I am saying this as LEAVER who leans Tory. The going after the UKIP vote strategy has beeen a complete disaster and cost Tories safe seats like Kensington.
    The last Yougov poll of voters in June 2016 asking who would be the best Tory leader had May on 19%, Boris 18%, Gove 5%, Fox 3%, Crabb 2%, Leadsom 1%, Osborne 3%. That says it all
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_2016#Opinion_polling
    Yes it does, Boris is 1% worse then the hopeless May.
    That was before the dementia tax etc without that May would have got her majority
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    blueblue said:

    Roger said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ruth has correctly worked out that weak and wobbly can be pushed around at will. Arlene will be doing the same.
    May's position is looking utterly untenable, in fact the complete Tory party will do soon if they don't do *something*.

    Quite what I'm not sure though.

    Panic?
    Call another election. Jezza can do a Thomas Aquinus speech from Downing St. Incidentally well done. You saw JC's qualities when most were scrabbling in the dirt looking through his 25 year old diaries
    His 'qualities' involve bribing voters with their own money. Next time I propose the Tories match and exceed Labour's ludicrous giveaways, and see what happens.
    Rather foolish. Tories needed to play the ball this election, but chose to play the man.

    Concentrating on hard economic issues, rather than decades old newspaper cuttings would have saved their majority.

    Its difficult to concentrate on hard economic issues after Osborne trashed Project Fear a year ago.

    And after tax cuts for the rich and big business and funding of vanity projects there were millions of voters who wanted a bigger slice of the cake.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Dadge said:

    The Brexit vote was cross-party. Why isn't the UK Brexit team cross-party? (If it had been, we would of course have been spared the farce of the last six weeks.) Brexiteers should be calling for Corbyn and Starmer to be on board - they might not get exactly the Brexit they want, but at least they'll get Brexit. Sensible Remainers should want it too - the Brexit process will do much less damage if it isn't a political football.

    That could also apply to other things.

    Social care for the elderly, university funding and housing for example.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    Good lord. Just noticed Peter Kyle has an 18K majority in Hove now.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    She has indubitably attracted SNP/Leave voters over to Conservative. A vastly impressive feat.

    To now turn around and signal Brexit in name only is a sensationally brave move.
    She was a particularly vocal and competent advocate for Remain.

    While she has come to conclude that Brexit has to go through, she wants Featherbed Soft Brexit.
    Which isn't on offer.
    Realistically now it must be something like:

    Featherbed Soft Brexit 40%
    WTO / Full North Korea 20%
    No Brexit 40%

    But FSB requires agency and leadership. The other two just require us to sit around and play musical chairs, which is basically all the Tory party has done for the past 12 months.
    No Brexit is not an option. Whichever party suggested it would end up like the Lib Dims.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,537
    edited June 2017

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    She has indubitably attracted SNP/Leave voters over to Conservative. A vastly impressive feat.

    To now turn around and signal Brexit in name only is a sensationally brave move.
    She was a particularly vocal and competent advocate for Remain.

    While she has come to conclude that Brexit has to go through, she wants Featherbed Soft Brexit.
    Which isn't on offer.
    Realistically now it must be something like:

    Featherbed Soft Brexit 40%
    WTO / Full North Korea 20%
    No Brexit 40%

    But FSB requires agency and leadership. The other two just require us to sit around and play musical chairs, which is basically all the Tory party has done for the past 12 months.
    No Brexit is not an option. Whichever party suggested it would end up like the Lib Dims.
    It doesn't require anyone to suggest it.

    It requires the process to drag on and on in an increasingly unsatisfactory manner until finally someone has the balls to kill it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,537
    edited June 2017
    Deleted.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257

    Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    She has indubitably attracted SNP/Leave voters over to Conservative. A vastly impressive feat.

    To now turn around and signal Brexit in name only is a sensationally brave move.
    She was a particularly vocal and competent advocate for Remain.

    While she has come to conclude that Brexit has to go through, she wants Featherbed Soft Brexit.
    Which isn't on offer.
    Realistically now it must be something like:

    Featherbed Soft Brexit 40%
    WTO / Full North Korea 20%
    No Brexit 40%

    But FSB requires agency and leadership. The other two just require us to sit around and play musical chairs, which is basically all the Tory party has done for the past 12 months.
    No Brexit is not an option. Whichever party suggested it would end up like the Lib Dims.
    It doesn't require anyone to suggest it.

    It requires the process to drag on and on in an increasingly unsatisfactory manner until finally someone has the balls to kill it.
    And that person has to say to the people of Britain "We are so tightly wound into the EU, we cannot leave. Our politicians have given away your sovereignty. Your voice has been lost. Sorry...."

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GeoffM said:

    Alistair said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Scott_P said:
    So we're just going to ignore 17m voters and the biggest democratic mandate for change ever.

    How nice.
    She's got 13 whole MPs. She is dominant. The world at her feet.
    She has not only revived SCon, she has done much to save the Union. I reckon she's a force.
    If the next Tory leadership contest was Ruth Davidson vs George Osborne, I'd be voting Ruth.

    That's how awesome she is.

    She'd absolutely batter Corbyn at PMQs every week for starters.

    She'd not duck any of the debates.
    Why all this sudden Ruth thing?

    The first thing she's done since the election is publicly ask for extra sweeties for her client LGTQWERTY base.

    Conservatives should be avoiding this depressing lefty tactic of dividing people into neat boxes.
    Who knew some Conservatives viewed civil rights as "sweeties" ?
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,320
    JackW said:

    Sean_F said:

    You'd think this was 1997, from some comments.

    Context is everything Sean.

    Go back seven weeks and tell Conservatives they'd lose their majority from a 20 point lead and they either ask what care in the community project you were in or that the Messiah has endorsed Jezza .... or probably both.
    Hi JackW, hoping you are in fine and fiesty fettle. I had real concerns when May called this GE, not least because it became very evident within hours that she had not even consulted a few trusted members of her own Cabinet or devolved party Leaders such as Ruth Davidson. That set alarm bells ringing with me that got even louder when I heard that both her Comms Chief and Press secretary wanted to resign. That immediately indicated to me that not even they had been in loop when it came to making such a monumental decision to call a snap GE. A huge error of judgement on so many levels. And one only compounded by briefings flying around that May was then expected uber loyalty from backbenches on their return after the GE on the back of 'her' manifesto with what appears shockingly little imput or signing off from her elected politicians.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    The Tories have simply one thing to do in government this time around - make sure that Corbyn isn't the next PM. Brexit is important, solvency is important, defence is important, law and order is important - however frankly I don't care what they do with those things - the demolition of the country by Corbyn is something I never wish to see, all other matters are secondary.

    Any Tory MP that makes even the slightest peep against Mrs May needs to be consigned to the tower. Of course she won't actually be making the decisions - it'll be the cabinet.

    I know it's fashionable to vote for dimwits, but the UK is not in a position to indulge itself with the dangerous variety.
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