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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the overall majority odds moved on a dramatic night of pol

SystemSystem Posts: 12,555
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How the overall majority odds moved on a dramatic night of political betting

Above the is the chart from Betdata.io of the final 12 hours of betting on an overall majority.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,638
    first - unlike, well you know.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FPT:-
    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    FPT
    IanB2 said:

    Breaking. No reshuffle, of the top/Brexit jobs anyhow.

    I can't believe Theresa May herself would want to be in a position where she's so weak she can't even reshuffle the Cabinet.

    Philip must have a word and tell her it's over....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    I love these charts. Reminds me of Trump and the EU Referendum!

    What a night!!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,869
    That chart looks spookily similar to that of the EU Referendum.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,228
    Danny565 said:

    FPT:-

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
    Agreed. It really is going to have to be May getting is out of Europe. Then she'll have to resign and another election happen. Probably circa 2020.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,065
    FPT
    GIN1138 said:

    Typo said:

    I wonder what would have happened under PM Leadsom?

    She probably wouldn't have been able to believe her luck and hung on until 2020.

    It's interesting to ponder isn't it?

    She's had kept Osborne in thew Cabinet for starters...
    Remember Ken Clarke's open mic comments when he said he didn't think she really wanted to leave the EU and wasn't one of the lunatics who thought we'd be better off outside the single market?

    The sad thing is that it's now clear that Leadsom wouldn't have been any more out of her depth than May is.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Have Conservatives manage to rustle up a few more votes in Kensington yet?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,320
    FPT:

    Typo said:
    "Why not Allen? She doesn't mince her words.

    I am totally up for a 2010 or even 2015 intake candidate taking over. Renewal renewal renewal. Forget the current cabinet."

    Cometh the hour....step forward Rory Stewart and Johnny Mercer. Any others?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Does she really believe pushing on with Brexit hamstrung is more important than the integrity of the peace settlement in Northern Ireland?!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,265
    Danny565 said:

    FPT:-

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
    Yep, they'll have to change and then have a new election. This current set up will not be workable.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,869
    I'm currently having an online discussion with someone from William Hill. I've asked them why they haven't paid out on my £70 bet on Labour winning more than 162.5 seats @ 5/6. It's taking some investigating....
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    alex. said:

    Have Conservatives manage to rustle up a few more votes in Kensington yet?

    count just started. i doubt it
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Lucky I laid Con majority when I did. Still lost overall on that aspect, but finished green when everything (Lib Dem stuff, constituencies and UKIP getting under 10%) was added up.

    FPT: Mr. Borough, disagree. May lost with the social care policy. There was no line to defend, no line to attack Labour's position.

    More widely, there was no critique of Labour's tax-and-spend profligacy.

    A dire campaign, brightened only by Ruth Davidson's excellent performance.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,033
    fpt

    Cons will have to do a volte-face on either public services spending or Brexit. If they get Boris, he can only do the former or his credibility will be shot (can't say well I was a Remainer before I became an arch Brexiter). He can then hunker down on Brexit with people realising that he is alive to the nuances of all sides of Brexit. Something that Tezza doesn't seem to be.

    Other than him? Hammond perhaps, Davis not on your nelly, Fallon lord spare us.

    Now, I happen to believe that the Cons needs a Remainer as leader. So that leaves Rudd (or an unknown as yet backbencher). But will the euroloons stand for it? Will for once in their political careers they realise that they didn't win, that there needs to be compromise with the country?

    Perhaps not, but one thing is for sure, as was noted above by @maaarsh, they need to be bloody careful or the bastards will destroy the Conservative Party and put Jezza into power at the next available opportunity.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:-

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
    Agreed. It really is going to have to be May getting is out of Europe. Then she'll have to resign and another election happen. Probably circa 2020.
    "Each vote for me strengthens my hand in Brexit negotiations"

    She can't possibly continue...
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    MarqueeMark said:

    FPT:

    Typo said:
    "Why not Allen? She doesn't mince her words.

    I am totally up for a 2010 or even 2015 intake candidate taking over. Renewal renewal renewal. Forget the current cabinet."

    Cometh the hour....step forward Rory Stewart and Johnny Mercer. Any others?

    I would love Mercer to go forward. He is a normal person with great experience.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Brom said:

    alex. said:

    Have Conservatives manage to rustle up a few more votes in Kensington yet?

    count just started. i doubt it
    Will be good conspiracy fodder if they manage to emerge the winner though ;)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    KentRising said:

    Brom said:

    I'm quite uncomfortable with the way a lot of people on my social media (London) talk about the DUP. Most of these people have never been to Northern Ireland, knew nothing of Northern Irish politics until today and yet are acting like the Conservatives are going into coalition with a third world junta rather than the most popular democratically elected party in a part of the United Kingdom. Presumably they see the Northern Irish as slightly less human than themselves.

    Because social media is 99% value-signalers who are obsessed with the gays? Sod stable government etc, as long as every single person in politics has the exact same belief system as them.....

    I think you'll find the Prime Minister threw away stable government with her grubby and calculating attempt to manipulate the electorate through an unnecessary trip to the polls.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,228
    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:-

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
    Agreed. It really is going to have to be May getting is out of Europe. Then she'll have to resign and another election happen. Probably circa 2020.
    "Each vote for me strengthens my hand in Brexit negotiations"

    She can't possibly continue...
    She got the highest Tory vote since, when, 92? Yes it wasn't a resounding win. But we saw a realignment and it was a technical win.

    There is no way the Tories can pass on the leadership to someone else now without another election.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Danny565 said:

    FPT:-

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
    FPT;
    Which is what May should have done last year.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,869
    Right Hills have settled. It's like getting blood out of a stone.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,033
    JackW said:

    KentRising said:

    Brom said:

    I'm quite uncomfortable with the way a lot of people on my social media (London) talk about the DUP. Most of these people have never been to Northern Ireland, knew nothing of Northern Irish politics until today and yet are acting like the Conservatives are going into coalition with a third world junta rather than the most popular democratically elected party in a part of the United Kingdom. Presumably they see the Northern Irish as slightly less human than themselves.

    Because social media is 99% value-signalers who are obsessed with the gays? Sod stable government etc, as long as every single person in politics has the exact same belief system as them.....

    I think you'll find the Prime Minister threw away stable government with her grubby and calculating attempt to manipulate the electorate through an unnecessary trip to the polls.
    She didn't try to manipulate anyone. She saw an opportunity and took it.

    Thing is, as has been endlessly rehearsed on here, all she did was see the opportunity plus assume that it would remain whatever she did or didn't do. That was her flaw.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Can't Gove do something to get rid of her?

    He's nasty, devious and Machiavellian....
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    paddys are offering 4/9 that TMay won't lead the party into the next GE. that should be more like 1/10 surely.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited June 2017
    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:-

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
    Agreed. It really is going to have to be May getting is out of Europe. Then she'll have to resign and another election happen. Probably circa 2020.
    "Each vote for me strengthens my hand in Brexit negotiations"

    She can't possibly continue...
    She got the highest Tory vote since, when, 92? Yes it wasn't a resounding win. But we saw a realignment and it was a technical win.

    There is no way the Tories can pass on the leadership to someone else now without another election.

    It wasn't a "resounding win" ? No? Really?

    If we have to have another election with a new leader then so be it. May's done!
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Coming around to the idea of an attempt to stick with May until Brexit is done or close to being done and then moving on. But I don't think for a minute that the party will allow that...

    Just seems to me that there is too much instability right now to have a leadership contest and the result of this election when looking at the data about demographics suggests that the Conservatives could lose another election very easily.

    A major policy rethink is needed and that takes time, certainly not enough time between now and say another GE later this year.

    Just have to somehow get it to work for the good of the country.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    JackW said:

    KentRising said:

    Brom said:

    I'm quite uncomfortable with the way a lot of people on my social media (London) talk about the DUP. Most of these people have never been to Northern Ireland, knew nothing of Northern Irish politics until today and yet are acting like the Conservatives are going into coalition with a third world junta rather than the most popular democratically elected party in a part of the United Kingdom. Presumably they see the Northern Irish as slightly less human than themselves.

    Because social media is 99% value-signalers who are obsessed with the gays? Sod stable government etc, as long as every single person in politics has the exact same belief system as them.....

    I think you'll find the Prime Minister threw away stable government with her grubby and calculating attempt to manipulate the electorate through an unnecessary trip to the polls.
    Where does she rank in the worst PM's in history do you think Jack?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,638
    Typo said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    FPT:

    Typo said:
    "Why not Allen? She doesn't mince her words.

    I am totally up for a 2010 or even 2015 intake candidate taking over. Renewal renewal renewal. Forget the current cabinet."

    Cometh the hour....step forward Rory Stewart and Johnny Mercer. Any others?

    I would love Mercer to go forward. He is a normal person with great experience.
    Rory. Let it be Rory, and not just because I have a long term bet on him.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:-

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
    Agreed. It really is going to have to be May getting is out of Europe. Then she'll have to resign and another election happen. Probably circa 2020.
    "Each vote for me strengthens my hand in Brexit negotiations"

    She can't possibly continue...
    She got the highest Tory vote since, when, 92? Yes it wasn't a resounding win. But we saw a realignment and it was a technical win.

    There is no way the Tories can pass on the leadership to someone else now without another election.

    It wasn't a "resounding win" ? No? Really?

    If we have to have another election with a new leader then so be it. May's done!
    Kind of ignores the small matter of Brexit. The EU aren't waiting.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,033
    Just catching up with the commentaries. V funny from John Crace:

    She had called for the country to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations and the country had listened. By telling her to get rid of a couple of dozen of her own MPs – natural attrition, she reassured herself – and replace them with eight members of the Democratic Unionist party. That would show the EU who was boss.

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-maybot-trapped-first-stage-election-grief-denial
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,719
    FPT @AlastairMeeks - Just got in from work and must congratulate you on an extremely good thread header article. Sorry I missed the comments.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Why are people saying that Boris is on manouvres?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Mr. W, disagree entirely.

    May's sin wasn't being calculating, it was the failure to be calculating. Hubris, arrogance, complacency, trying to wing it and assuming all would be well. Some calculating would've been rather welcome.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    RUTH.

    SavIour of the Tories, nation and my wallet. And 2 memorable and cheering defeats of you know who...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,638
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Lucky I laid Con majority when I did. Still lost overall on that aspect, but finished green when everything (Lib Dem stuff, constituencies and UKIP getting under 10%) was added up.

    FPT: Mr. Borough, disagree. May lost with the social care policy. There was no line to defend, no line to attack Labour's position.

    More widely, there was no critique of Labour's tax-and-spend profligacy.

    A dire campaign, brightened only by Ruth Davidson's excellent performance.

    I agree with you over social care. It was disaster. But I am reporting what I was told by a family member. That wasn't the day things changed in his big office. It was the debate.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    FattyBolger said:

    Why are people saying that Boris is on manouvres?

    Sky quoted it an hour ago
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Also who's to say, given the Tory Party's record of prioritising "stop X" candidates over the best candidates that an election wouldn't leave them with a total dud? And not one who could even secure 42% of the vote.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Mortimer said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Mortimer said:

    Danny565 said:

    FPT:-

    alex. said:

    May became Prime Minister without a personal electoral mandate. She went to the country in part to get that mandate, but fell short of expectations (but still significant increase in votes and comfortably most seats such as only Conservatives can form a viable Government).

    Because the electorate didn't grant her a strong enough mandate, the proposal is that the Conservative party say "you didn't like her, ok we'll give you somebody else"(but you won't have a chance to give your opinion on them). That won't wash - they would have to be bloody certain that that person could win a General Election in 4 months. Because that's where it would be going.

    Exactly. The idea of going through a General Election with various leaders put front and centre, then suddenly some other guy or girl who wasn't even on the table suddenly comes in straight after the election, is going to seem utterly baffling to the public.

    The Tories will either have to make do with May for most of the parliament, or if they really do want to change leaders then get ready for another election imminently.
    Agreed. It really is going to have to be May getting is out of Europe. Then she'll have to resign and another election happen. Probably circa 2020.
    "Each vote for me strengthens my hand in Brexit negotiations"

    She can't possibly continue...
    She got the highest Tory vote since, when, 92? Yes it wasn't a resounding win. But we saw a realignment and it was a technical win.

    There is no way the Tories can pass on the leadership to someone else now without another election.
    And I think it would need to be someone fresh, untainted by the last six weeks. In supporting May during the election some of the likelier candidates have made statements that would be hard to justify under the pressure of a new election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 66,638
    FattyBolger said:

    Why are people saying that Boris is on manouvres?

    Because he is always on manoeuvres?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    IDS the quiet man is turning up the Volume!
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,340
    Was the sit-down TV clip a rush job to stop constituency chairmen and failed candidates marching on Downing St with pitchforks?

    Looked to me like Graham Brady* rang her up after the lunchtime statement and asked WTF was going on with the 'crisis, what crisis?'** approach. Very odd statement, grovelling to the failed candidates instead of talking about Brexit/government/getting into bed with a bunch of homophobes.

    (* Not least as he was on the news 10 mins earlier predicting she'd be 'doing some more broadcasting' later today!)

    (** Though I maybe mixing my prime ministerial metaphors... it reminded me more of Ma T on the steps of the Paris embassy)
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Mr. Borough, fair enough.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    Just re-reading Nate Silver's article...very predictive

    Betting markets as of Wednesday night imply there’s only about a 15 percent chance of Conservatives failing to win an outright majority.

    If you take the polls at face value, however, the chances are surely higher than that. If Labour beats the final polling average by only 1 or 2 percentage points, both sides will start having to sweat out the results from individual constituencies. And if they beat their polls by much more than that, May’s majority is probably toast. If this happens, the adjustments that pollsters made to discount Labour turnout will have proven to be counterproductive, and the lesson for pollsters will be to trust their data instead of making too many presumptions about who is likely to vote. The lesson for May, meanwhile, would be never to call a “snap” election again in a country where public opinion can shift so rapidly.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,922
    edited June 2017
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    RUTH.

    SavIour of the Tories, nation and my wallet. And 2 memorable and cheering defeats of you know who...

    Who was up for Salmond?

    Love it!
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    dyedwoolie said:

    IDS the quiet man is turning up the Volume!

    He's happy; he's going down the list of worst Tory leaders since Eden.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,843
    TOPPING said:

    Just catching up with the commentaries. V funny from John Crace:

    She had called for the country to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations and the country had listened. By telling her to get rid of a couple of dozen of her own MPs – natural attrition, she reassured herself – and replace them with eight members of the Democratic Unionist party. That would show the EU who was boss.

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-maybot-trapped-first-stage-election-grief-denial

    So how come CCHQ knew fack all about how the campaign was failing ?

    Didn't they tell you a majority of 40-70 an hour before the Exit Poll ?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,843
    Can anyone explain why the Conservatives did so well in Sutton & Cheam constituency ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,033
    another_richard said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just catching up with the commentaries. V funny from John Crace:

    She had called for the country to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations and the country had listened. By telling her to get rid of a couple of dozen of her own MPs – natural attrition, she reassured herself – and replace them with eight members of the Democratic Unionist party. That would show the EU who was boss.

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-maybot-trapped-first-stage-election-grief-denial

    So how come CCHQ knew fack all about how the campaign was failing ?

    Didn't they tell you a majority of 40-70 an hour before the Exit Poll ?
    yep
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    KentRising said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    RUTH.

    SavIour of the Tories, nation and my wallet. And 2 memorable and cheering defeats of you know who...

    Who was up for Salmond?

    Love it!
    A brief moment of fleeting cheer. And I was pleased to see the new MP immediately paid a gracious tribute to Salmond in his acceptance speech. I wonder what AS will do now?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,843
    AnneJGP said:

    FPT @AlastairMeeks - Just got in from work and must congratulate you on an extremely good thread header article. Sorry I missed the comments.

    Seconded.

    Another top class piece from AM.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    another_richard said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just catching up with the commentaries. V funny from John Crace:

    She had called for the country to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations and the country had listened. By telling her to get rid of a couple of dozen of her own MPs – natural attrition, she reassured herself – and replace them with eight members of the Democratic Unionist party. That would show the EU who was boss.

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-maybot-trapped-first-stage-election-grief-denial

    So how come CCHQ knew fack all about how the campaign was failing ?

    Didn't they tell you a majority of 40-70 an hour before the Exit Poll ?
    I'd imagine they identified their own increase and completely missed the corbocharge. Probably didn't think the remainers really would jump the shark as much either.
    Or they're stupid.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    paulyork64 said:

    paddys are offering 4/9 that TMay won't lead the party into the next GE. that should be more like 1/10 surely.

    Good spot. Also the 3/1 on Corbyn not leading the Labour Party into the next GE is a snip. The problems with his leadership haven't gone away, and they've got hopes of actually winning next time. Also he's getting on in years.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    another_richard said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just catching up with the commentaries. V funny from John Crace:

    She had called for the country to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations and the country had listened. By telling her to get rid of a couple of dozen of her own MPs – natural attrition, she reassured herself – and replace them with eight members of the Democratic Unionist party. That would show the EU who was boss.

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-maybot-trapped-first-stage-election-grief-denial

    So how come CCHQ knew fack all about how the campaign was failing ?

    Didn't they tell you a majority of 40-70 an hour before the Exit Poll ?
    I suspect it may be down to turnout. The impression I got was that CCHQ had a target figure for voters in each of their targets and were confident that they had got there. They were probably right in most cases but the increased turnout (and tactical voting to an extent) meant that the target wasn't high enough. The bit that surprises me more is that Labour seemed to be just as unprepared for the actual results.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    There is one more point about the supposed guaranteed next election in four months. The Tories can't force an election under the FTPA without giving Corbyn a shot at PM first. McDonnell has already said he will present a budget/QS and dare the opposition to vote it down.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,033
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    paulyork64 said:

    paddys are offering 4/9 that TMay won't lead the party into the next GE. that should be more like 1/10 surely.

    Good spot. Also the 3/1 on Corbyn not leading the Labour Party into the next GE is a snip. The problems with his leadership haven't gone away, and they've got hopes of actually winning next time. Also he's getting on in years.
    As was noted earlier, why is Tezza still 1/14 to be PM after the GE. Does she need to be sworn in? What is the official timing?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    TOPPING said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    paulyork64 said:

    paddys are offering 4/9 that TMay won't lead the party into the next GE. that should be more like 1/10 surely.

    Good spot. Also the 3/1 on Corbyn not leading the Labour Party into the next GE is a snip. The problems with his leadership haven't gone away, and they've got hopes of actually winning next time. Also he's getting on in years.
    As was noted earlier, why is Tezza still 1/14 to be PM after the GE. Does she need to be sworn in? What is the official timing?
    Possibly she has to survive a vote on the Queens Speech?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    We now have a coalition government between the Conservatives and the Natural Law Party, led by a Prime Minister who is seeking, by means of yogic flying, to levitate above her government without any support other than thin air.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    There is one other disquieting aspect of the deal that the Conservatives are undertaking with the DUP and that is the government will lose all pretense of neutrality in the Northern Ireland process. For an administration that requires for its very existence on one side can no longer be seen as a disinterested participant.

    The DUP will exact the fullest measure and a desperate Prime Minister will have to pay the danegeld or fall. The Prime Minister should seek the advice of John Major who in a similar situation refused to sup with the DUP as he realized the greater prize was far, far more important.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,869
    edited June 2017
    another_richard said:

    Can anyone explain why the Conservatives did so well in Sutton & Cheam constituency ?

    Something to do with bin collections? It voted leave too.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited June 2017
    I make it she was 39 votes switching or 69 absolute short of a technical majority with Sinn Fein sitting out.
    Perth, Dudley North and Newcastle Under Lyme
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    alex. said:

    There is one more point about the supposed guaranteed next election in four months. The Tories can't force an election under the FTPA without giving Corbyn a shot at PM first. McDonnell has already said he will present a budget/QS and dare the opposition to vote it down.

    If Labour believe they can actually secure a majority in a second election then I guess they would be happy to vote for another one.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,869
    dyedwoolie said:

    I make it she was 39 votes switching or 69 absolute short of a technical majority with Sinn Fein sitting out.
    Perth, Durley North and Newcastle Under Lyme

    And what about the other way. How many votes were we away from PM Corbyn?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,843
    dyedwoolie said:

    another_richard said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just catching up with the commentaries. V funny from John Crace:

    She had called for the country to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations and the country had listened. By telling her to get rid of a couple of dozen of her own MPs – natural attrition, she reassured herself – and replace them with eight members of the Democratic Unionist party. That would show the EU who was boss.

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-maybot-trapped-first-stage-election-grief-denial

    So how come CCHQ knew fack all about how the campaign was failing ?

    Didn't they tell you a majority of 40-70 an hour before the Exit Poll ?
    I'd imagine they identified their own increase and completely missed the corbocharge. Probably didn't think the remainers really would jump the shark as much either.
    Or they're stupid.
    The funny thing is I think Labour missed the Corbocharge as well.

    It was their pollster, BMG, which had the Conservatives 13% ahead at the end and Owen Jones was calling for big GOTV efforts in Brentford and Tooting.

    While Labour MPs were all defending their own constituencies judging by twitter.

    If my theory is true, then Labour could have done even better with a more effective use of its resources.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    paulyork64 said:

    paddys are offering 4/9 that TMay won't lead the party into the next GE. that should be more like 1/10 surely.

    Good spot. Also the 3/1 on Corbyn not leading the Labour Party into the next GE is a snip. The problems with his leadership haven't gone away, and they've got hopes of actually winning next time. Also he's getting on in years.
    I never even looked at that one. It's now 11/4. what did you do? :)
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    TudorRose said:

    alex. said:

    There is one more point about the supposed guaranteed next election in four months. The Tories can't force an election under the FTPA without giving Corbyn a shot at PM first. McDonnell has already said he will present a budget/QS and dare the opposition to vote it down.

    If Labour believe they can actually secure a majority in a second election then I guess they would be happy to vote for another one.
    They would far prefer to do so via Corbyn actually getting to sit in no10 for a few weeks first. And do it via the mechanism of having a populist QS voted down as a reason for the voters to flock to them.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,843
    So were all those stories about people knowing the postal vote were inaccurate ?

    Certainly the Ealing Central story was but perhaps not the Penistone story.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    tlg86 said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    I make it she was 39 votes switching or 69 absolute short of a technical majority with Sinn Fein sitting out.
    Perth, Durley North and Newcastle Under Lyme

    And what about the other way. How many votes were we away from PM Corbyn?
    Hmmmmmmmmmmmm probably about 400?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    alex. said:

    There is one more point about the supposed guaranteed next election in four months. The Tories can't force an election under the FTPA without giving Corbyn a shot at PM first. McDonnell has already said he will present a budget/QS and dare the opposition to vote it down.

    Surely a new Tory leader could ask for a dissolution of parliament. May cannot but someone like Fallon or Johnson or Hammond et al could go for it I am sure.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    TOPPING said:


    As was noted earlier, why is Tezza still 1/14 to be PM after the GE. Does she need to be sworn in? What is the official timing?

    The rules are decided by the book in question, so just dig around on their site.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2017
    The_Taxman said:

    alex. said:

    There is one more point about the supposed guaranteed next election in four months. The Tories can't force an election under the FTPA without giving Corbyn a shot at PM first. McDonnell has already said he will present a budget/QS and dare the opposition to vote it down.

    Surely a new Tory leader could ask for a dissolution of parliament. May cannot but someone like Fallon or Johnson or Hammond et al could go for it I am sure.
    Not under the FTPA. Also being the party responsible for one unnecessary election, the Queen would have every reason to do every thing possible to give Labour a shot before agreeing to another.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,843
    tlg86 said:

    another_richard said:

    Can anyone explain why the Conservatives did so well in Sutton & Cheam constituency ?

    Something to do with bin collections? It voted leave too.
    But why didn't they win Carshalton in that case ?

    It can't all have been incumbency.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,710
    Mr. W, I agree. And it's unnecessary, the DUP would never risk by abstention Corbyn getting into Number Ten.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 78,934
    TOPPING said:

    JackW said:

    KentRising said:

    Brom said:

    I'm quite uncomfortable with the way a lot of people on my social media (London) talk about the DUP. Most of these people have never been to Northern Ireland, knew nothing of Northern Irish politics until today and yet are acting like the Conservatives are going into coalition with a third world junta rather than the most popular democratically elected party in a part of the United Kingdom. Presumably they see the Northern Irish as slightly less human than themselves.

    Because social media is 99% value-signalers who are obsessed with the gays? Sod stable government etc, as long as every single person in politics has the exact same belief system as them.....

    I think you'll find the Prime Minister threw away stable government with her grubby and calculating attempt to manipulate the electorate through an unnecessary trip to the polls.
    She didn't try to manipulate anyone. She saw an opportunity and took it.

    Thing is, as has been endlessly rehearsed on here, all she did was see the opportunity plus assume that it would remain whatever she did or didn't do. That was her flaw.
    She saw the opportunity and completely blew it.
    She cost a number of colleagues their seats, destroyed any prospect of implementing any program beyond Brexit, and massively weakened her room for negotiation over Brexit, while creating huge uncertainty over what might happen next.
    And destroyed whatever personal brand she might have with large swathes of the electorate - including many who reluctantly voted for her.

    Other than that, a notable success.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,579
    another_richard said:

    So were all those stories about people knowing the postal vote were inaccurate ?

    Certainly the Ealing Central story was but perhaps not the Penistone story.

    Next election I'm not going to believe anything (apart from the YouGov model.. maybe) :p
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited June 2017
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, I agree. And it's unnecessary, the DUP would never risk by abstention Corbyn getting into Number Ten.

    Why? They can vote him down any time they like with the Tories
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TOPPING said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    paulyork64 said:

    paddys are offering 4/9 that TMay won't lead the party into the next GE. that should be more like 1/10 surely.

    Good spot. Also the 3/1 on Corbyn not leading the Labour Party into the next GE is a snip. The problems with his leadership haven't gone away, and they've got hopes of actually winning next time. Also he's getting on in years.
    As was noted earlier, why is Tezza still 1/14 to be PM after the GE. Does she need to be sworn in? What is the official timing?
    It looks very tempting but the rules seem vague so I'm giving it a miss.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    Where does she rank in the worst PM's in history do you think Jack?

    Much will depend on how the next few days and weeks go. She's low down presently and falling and by some margin the worst Conservative PM since WWII.

    ...............................

    I note Jonathan Powell on the BBC has endorsed my view at 6:21pm.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    another_richard said:

    The funny thing is I think Labour missed the Corbocharge as well.

    Yes, it does look very much like that. Information I got from someone working on the national campaign confirmed that they thought they were in for a bad night.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Where does she rank in the worst PM's in history do you think Jack?

    Much will depend on how the next few days and weeks go. She's low down presently and falling and by some margin the worst Conservative PM since WWII.

    ...............................

    I note Jonathan Powell on the BBC has endorsed my view at 6:21pm.

    I think she qualifies as the worst woman Prime Minister!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    paulyork64 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    paulyork64 said:

    paddys are offering 4/9 that TMay won't lead the party into the next GE. that should be more like 1/10 surely.

    Good spot. Also the 3/1 on Corbyn not leading the Labour Party into the next GE is a snip. The problems with his leadership haven't gone away, and they've got hopes of actually winning next time. Also he's getting on in years.
    I never even looked at that one. It's now 11/4. what did you do? :)
    I placed the maximum bet they would allow me.

    £3
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. W, disagree entirely.

    May's sin wasn't being calculating, it was the failure to be calculating. Hubris, arrogance, complacency, trying to wing it and assuming all would be well. Some calculating would've been rather welcome.

    You may be calculating and incompetent .... as we've just seen.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Boris would have cleaned up the DNV and a portion of the youth vote you realise ;)
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Where does she rank in the worst PM's in history do you think Jack?

    Much will depend on how the next few days and weeks go. She's low down presently and falling and by some margin the worst Conservative PM since WWII.

    ...............................



    Well Heath wasn't great, and blew an election (and worse) in very similar circumstances.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    AndyJS said:

    Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.

    Bingo! In a nutshell.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    paulyork64 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    paulyork64 said:

    paddys are offering 4/9 that TMay won't lead the party into the next GE. that should be more like 1/10 surely.

    Good spot. Also the 3/1 on Corbyn not leading the Labour Party into the next GE is a snip. The problems with his leadership haven't gone away, and they've got hopes of actually winning next time. Also he's getting on in years.
    I never even looked at that one. It's now 11/4. what did you do? :)
    I placed the maximum bet they would allow me.

    £3
    ha. and the 4/9 is now 3/10. was that £10 of yours that did that?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    AndyJS said:

    Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.

    Yes. Anti establishment voting is the new Norm. Punk is reactivated, and it's voting.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Go Kay !
    https://twitter.com/me_stafford/status/873209534885617664
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FattyBolger said:

    AndyJS said:

    Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.

    Bingo! In a nutshell.
    Did you write something similar on here the other day? Someone did but I can't remember who it was.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    paulyork64 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    paulyork64 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    paulyork64 said:

    paddys are offering 4/9 that TMay won't lead the party into the next GE. that should be more like 1/10 surely.

    Good spot. Also the 3/1 on Corbyn not leading the Labour Party into the next GE is a snip. The problems with his leadership haven't gone away, and they've got hopes of actually winning next time. Also he's getting on in years.
    I never even looked at that one. It's now 11/4. what did you do? :)
    I placed the maximum bet they would allow me.

    £3
    ha. and the 4/9 is now 3/10. was that £10 of yours that did that?
    'Fraid so
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    AlastairMeeks said:

    We now have a coalition government between the Conservatives and the Natural Law Party, led by a Prime Minister who is seeking, by means of yogic flying, to levitate above her government without any support other than thin air.

    Titter .... :smiley:
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited June 2017
    FattyBolger said:

    AndyJS said:

    Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.

    Bingo! In a nutshell.
    Well Corbyn didn't actually win. Against, we have just been informed, the worst Tory PM since the War.
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    AndyJS said:

    FattyBolger said:

    AndyJS said:

    Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.

    Bingo! In a nutshell.
    Did you write something similar on here the other day? Someone did but I can't remember who it was.
    No, I dont think so. I just thought you made a first class point,
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited June 2017
    I think the betting getting it wrong again shows that no one has the data to really predict how an election will pan out on the day. The money parties plow into internal polling is probably a total waste.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,843
    AndyJS said:

    Like others I'm coming round to the view that Brexit, Trump and Corbyn are all part of the same phenomenon, where voters are sticking two fingers up at whoever they regard as the establishment, regardless of whether doing so involves voting left, right, or something else.

    The SCON gains from the SNP might also be an example of it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,708
    TudorRose said:

    another_richard said:

    TOPPING said:

    Just catching up with the commentaries. V funny from John Crace:

    She had called for the country to strengthen her hand in the Brexit negotiations and the country had listened. By telling her to get rid of a couple of dozen of her own MPs – natural attrition, she reassured herself – and replace them with eight members of the Democratic Unionist party. That would show the EU who was boss.

    https://theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/09/theresa-may-maybot-trapped-first-stage-election-grief-denial

    So how come CCHQ knew fack all about how the campaign was failing ?

    Didn't they tell you a majority of 40-70 an hour before the Exit Poll ?
    I suspect it may be down to turnout. The impression I got was that CCHQ had a target figure for voters in each of their targets and were confident that they had got there. They were probably right in most cases but the increased turnout (and tactical voting to an extent) meant that the target wasn't high enough. The bit that surprises me more is that Labour seemed to be just as unprepared for the actual results.
    They sure were. A week before the election, Broxtowe activists were urged by the organisation to go and help in Gedling (OK, fair enough), Nottingham South (hmm) and Nottingham North (oh come on). The latter two seats were won by Labour with a 2-1 margin. The activists basically laughed and carried on.

  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Where does she rank in the worst PM's in history do you think Jack?

    Much will depend on how the next few days and weeks go. She's low down presently and falling and by some margin the worst Conservative PM since WWII.

    ...............................

    I note Jonathan Powell on the BBC has endorsed my view at 6:21pm.

    Powell of course is a Labour apparatchik.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Evening all. – Another GE where the majority of pollsters and punters called it wrong, no wonder there was a dramatic movement when the exit poll was released. Oh, and whole narrative that dominated PB for the past few weeks, total bollox.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    How much is it going to cost us for the DUP to approve the budget?
This discussion has been closed.