politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With such a focus on Corbyn’s past with Sinn Féin it is ironic

foxinsoxuk said:

KentRising said:

Charles said:

stjohn said:

May is not far off evens to be next PM. I think she will carry on - because she should.

Of course her ambitious colleagues are falling over themselves to ,"offer their services to the country". But she stood on a mandate to deliver BREXIT and the electorate have given her the most votes. So she stood stand and deliver.

I'm not arguing through my pocket. I'm trying to interpret the GBP's thinking. She may well want to walk away - but this is her moment in history. To navigate the British people through BREXIT.

I've talked myself around. May for next PM at 1.89.

I'm on!

It's clear that the electorate want 'none of the above'.

There are big issues that need to be addressed: Brexit, terrorism and social care.

May should propose a national government, with a 2.5 year term.

Wow, I like this.

No way is Jezza being another Ramsey MacDonald.

Make the offer in public.

AndyJS said:

The Labour target list is complete. Of the 114 seats on the list, they've won 31:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0

So still plenty more gains to come?

It's Ken wot won it !

Normal service resumed.

Bugger it.. I'm gonna stay up for May's speech, just to find out what is gonna happen.

kle4 said:

Normal service resumed.

Welcome back, your neutralness.

stjohn said:

Well if May does resign, Betfair says there are only 5 Tory runners:

May 2.44-2.58

Boris 4-4.3 (Foreign Sec)
Davis 12-12.5 (Europe Sec and previous Shadow Home Secretary).
Rudd 7.8-10.5 (Home Sec)
Hammond 50-140 (Chancellor)
Gove 70-110 (Previously at Education and Justice)

All have problems but at current prices I'm happy with my score on Gove.

It will be Davis.

Boris too maverick.

Rudd too weakened.

Hammond too grey.

Razedabode said:

Must be senior Tories now sensing blood. They will move to remove her.

The campaign was shambolic. Atrocious. Manifesto was a suicide note.

..god knows where we go from here.

Spectator tweeting she's making her resignation speech at 10am. She won't carry on: only for long enough for a leadership election.

RochdalePioneers said:

Best Labour result in terms of votes cast since 1997 - or to put it the other way Jezhollah got 2m more votes than Blair in 2001.

A fascinating evening. A dozen of those seats won by a double digit vote majority going the other way, and Jeremy would be PM. As it is we don't know who the PM will be...

One option:
1. May resigns at 10am. They'll anoint Boris as populist Foreign Secretary
2. DUP put demands in that the Tories can't back - they want the single market to protect their border
3. Tory Queens Speech contains no material at all barring Brexit. Will it pass...?

Lets be honest. The incoming government has no authority. No traction. No power to negotiate a glass of water from the EU never mind a cost-free hard brexit with access to the single market. What a cluster fuck by the Maybot. Let "Strong and Stable" go down as the stupidest campaign strategy of this generation.

Good analysis.

Were some posters - possibly powered by Viagra - comparing May with Thatcher?

Hahahahaha.

ThreeQuidder said:

JosiasJessop said:

So Cameron and Osborne's light is brightened.

They hold the future to the Conservative party. Shame the Europhobes got rid of them

They both quit...

Not out of choice.

bardigiani said:

So what do Labour moderates do now? They're now stuck with a leader they detest.

They detested him because they thought he was a loser. So they'll be licking his arse soon enough I expect.

New thread...

I'd go for Davis too - and he'll be best bet for a quick GE:

- Good debater
- Working class appeal

Disaster. At least my reports back here from Torbay were spot on the money - Kevin Foster stuck over 10k onto his majority, up 12.4%; LibDem tactical votes unwinding, down 8.7%; Labour benefiting up 9.5%; and UKIP smashed, down 11.2%. However, I did say it felt like the caravan had moved on, that we in Torbay could only hear distant gunfire, but were no longer at the Front. The battle was elsewhere.

The central literature we were sent to deliver though was shite, in my opinion. Scatter gun, messy, confusing, no coherent message. The central premise was: Theresa May. What we were asked to deliver was a cult of personality to somebody who, frankly, has no personality. Certainly, nothing to sell. She has to go after this debacle because if she doesn't, nothing will improve.

I also think Philip Hammond takes a big chunk of blame. Labour's offering was avoid of any economic merit whatsoever. It was every wish you could imagine, cobbled together to appeal to the widest audience who wanted to hear SOMETHING as a reason to vote. The suppliers of Moons on Sticks have had a blinder. It should have been systematically DESTROYED.

Even from the bubble of Torbay, I feared this might happen. Not for nothing did I say that May needed to stand up on Monday and offer to meet the notorious £350m a week to the NHS by the end of this Parliament. No more of a Moon on a Stick than Labour were offering, but it would have given a PURPOSE to getting Brexit through. A purpose totally lacking in this campaign. She'd be looking at a majority north of 100 if she had.

This was a Brexit election that had nothing to sell to the voters. Some hard-hitting honesty about future pension costs and later life care costs was not a Manifesto to compensate. Not when the other guy is offering bright, shiny things, even if they were so fragile they would break before you could get them home.

The curse of interesting times lies ahead.

Well, the pollsters and all of us on here got it wrong.
Did anyone make any money - apart from the bookies?

another_richard said:

Alanbrooke said:

another_richard said:

Alanbrooke said:

another_richard said:

JosiasJessop said:

another_richard said:

JosiasJessop said:

May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.

Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.

Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.

If only Clegg had told them where to go.

It's easy. *If* you think that 50% of children need to go to university, then fees at that level are necessary. *If* you think it should be less than 50%, then fee can be less.

That's where the discussion should have been. Sadly, aside from on here, it has not been.

I'm in the 20-25% go to university and fund them properly camp - it worked well enough like that into the 1990s.

But as soon as you threaten teenagers with £9k per year debt then you're at risk of some populist (and that's what Corbyn is masquerading as) offering to stop that burden.

as well as pissing off parents who dont see why their kids should be racked up with debt

Two kids means £54k fees debt (plus other university debts).

Unaffordable housing in many middle class areas and then the government has the bright idea of the dementia tax.

it costs about £50k per kid for a degree

two grads getting married have a £100k mortgage around their neck before they get anywhre near a house

Loose change to some of the Bullingdon crowd.

But it was blindingly obviously back in 2010 that it would produce disaster sooner or later.

Strange how you never mentioned that when you were tipping May to win Sunderland Central.
Can't pin this on Cameron however much you want to. It's a reaction against Brexit and against May being utterly talentless.
As has been pointed out by some here for a long time.

logical_song said:

Well, the pollsters and all of us on here got it wrong.
Did anyone make any money - apart from the bookies?

As I was oriented around SCon surge my book is happy. Just a shame I chucked money away on Tory Maj.

JosiasJessop said:

So Cameron and Osborne's light is brightened.

They hold the future to the Conservative party. Shame the Europhobes got rid of them, and they are left with clowns such as Boris, Davis or Fox.

And a shame so many of the Europhobes on here are going, or have gone, abroad.

Bring on Corbyn. At least he offers change.

lol

tired and emotional I think is the phrase

asjohnstone said:

stjohn said:

Well if May does resign, Betfair says there are only 5 Tory runners:

May 2.44-2.58

Boris 4-4.3 (Foreign Sec)
Davis 12-12.5 (Europe Sec and previous Shadow Home Secretary).
Rudd 7.8-10.5 (Home Sec)
Hammond 50-140 (Chancellor)
Gove 70-110 (Previously at Education and Justice)

All have problems but at current prices I'm happy with my score on Gove.

What a poor bunch. Each of them almost certainly fatally flawed. Look for value in the next batch, Truss, Clark or perhaps Fallon as a safe pair of hands?

I backed Boris at 100+ just after the exit poll (fast fingers) but I traded out at 5. I don't think he will form the first ministry even if he becomes leader. I think May must form the first ministry, come what May.

kle4 said:

Charles said:

kle4 said:

Charles said:

stjohn said:

May is not far off evens to be next PM. I think she will carry on - because she should.

Of course her ambitious colleagues are falling over themselves to ,"offer their services to the country". But she stood on a mandate to deliver BREXIT and the electorate have given her the most votes. So she stood stand and deliver.

I'm not arguing through my pocket. I'm trying to interpret the GBP's thinking. She may well want to walk away - but this is her moment in history. To navigate the British people through BREXIT.

I've talked myself around. May for next PM at 1.89.

I'm on!

It's clear that the electorate want 'none of the above'.

There are big issues that need to be addressed: Brexit, terrorism and social care.

May should propose a national government, with a 2.5 year term.

Labour will expect to win comfortably in 2022 now - why jeopardize that by working with the Tories?

Because Corbyn will be 72 then.

A successor will emerge by then.

Making this his chance.

Scotland results are very very different from the UK results

- turnout decreased a lot (71.1 to 66.4)
- SNP lost a third of its 2015 votes (-477 000)
- CON gained 75% more votes than in 2015
- LAB almost stood still (+10 000) and LD actually lost votes (-20 000) but both gained seats...

midwinter said:

another_richard said:

Alanbrooke said:

another_richard said:

Alanbrooke said:

another_richard said:

JosiasJessop said:

another_richard said:

JosiasJessop said:

May is unworthy to shine Cameron's and Osborne's shoes.

Increasing student fees to £9k per year doesn't look like the best of ideas any more does it.

Well some of us did say it was a bad idea back in 2010.

If only Clegg had told them where to go.

It's easy. *If* you think that 50% of children need to go to university, then fees at that level are necessary. *If* you think it should be less than 50%, then fee can be less.

That's where the discussion should have been. Sadly, aside from on here, it has not been.

I'm in the 20-25% go to university and fund them properly camp - it worked well enough like that into the 1990s.

But as soon as you threaten teenagers with £9k per year debt then you're at risk of some populist (and that's what Corbyn is masquerading as) offering to stop that burden.

as well as pissing off parents who dont see why their kids should be racked up with debt

Two kids means £54k fees debt (plus other university debts).

Unaffordable housing in many middle class areas and then the government has the bright idea of the dementia tax.

it costs about £50k per kid for a degree

two grads getting married have a £100k mortgage around their neck before they get anywhre near a house

Loose change to some of the Bullingdon crowd.

But it was blindingly obviously back in 2010 that it would produce disaster sooner or later.

Strange how you never mentioned that when you were tipping May to win Sunderland Central.
Can't pin this on Cameron however much you want to. It's a reaction against Brexit and against May being utterly talentless.
As has been pointed out by some here for a long time.

I never predicted the Conservatives to win Sunderland Central - I look for value on all sides in my bets and have done very well from them today. If you don't believe me that you might like to check with Pulpstar, Murali and AndyJS over bets I have tipped to them. Likewise I have disagreed with suggestions that the Conservatives ever had chances to win West Bromwich West and Sheffield Hallam for example.

And I also said that Cameron's policy of £9k per year of student fees was a bad one which would have negative effects including one day negative electoral effects.

Please don't try to deny it, you know I'm right.

Just as Theresa May was a remainer who converted to back Brexit after the referendum, David Davis is a Brexiter who can sell a soft Brexit now. Given they need a big hitter he would be my choice for new PM.

marke09 said:

David Davies already seen going into No 10 - is hse going to ask the cabinet one by one

I'd have thought David Davis more likely ;-)

Isn't it funny that in 2015 the broadcasters all expected to spend the day after the election talking about coalitions and ended up taking majority government and in 2017 they were expecting to talk majority and are now talking coalitions. What a world.

amber rudd might lose in next election - how can she be leader?

So, YouGov won the election.

atia2 said:

bardigiani said:

So what do Labour moderates do now? They're now stuck with a leader they detest.

Stop detesting.

I'm ones of these. I think the answer is suck it and see.