BBC MerseysideAccount verificato @bbcmerseyside 5 min5 minuti fa Labour candidate @MikeAmesbury is confident of winning the Weaver Vale seat from the Conservatives #GE2017 #BBCelection
Wow -- thought Labour might sneak some gains in this part of the world, but would never have expected that one.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 7m7 minutes ago More Woah! Plaid Cymru sources say Ceredigion is now a four-way fight. 'Labour and the Tories have come from nowhere.'
Mortimer, CarlottaVance, Alanbrooke, Alanbrooke, can you hear me?
Your girl took one hell of a beating.
*If* it ends up as the exit poll says, I shall replay my conversation with Alanbrooke from the other day over and over.
The thing none of the talking heads are saying on TV - and surprisingly few people are saying here - is it was the dementia tax. It was all the dementia tax. Don't mess with people's homes. The Tories stomped home at the locals last month. The narrative changed with the dementia tax.
Can anyone think of an appropriate punishment for Nick Timothy? I'm struggling right now.
The Tory NEV at the local elections was only 38%, so not the landslide you think it was.
I don't think the dementia tax (stupid as it was) had much to do with this result - its May's embrace of UKIP that has lost her the centrists and the country.
My only hope is that Tories felt free to stick two fingers up to May in Swindon North. Hopefully, where the seats are in play, they weren't quite so cavalier.
So it looks like pretty much all the experts were wrong.
From OGH to JackW to JohnO to TSE to Kieran Pedley among PBers alone.
But so were many of the opinion polls and blogging experts.
And so were almost all the MPs - the Conservatives have been campaigning to make gains while Labour MPs were fighting defensively in their own constituencies.
A total misread of the country.
And where was your prediction, oh wise sage after the event?
Can we all just agree that YouGov are bloody scoundrels, adjusting their methodology and releasing two models, so that whatever happened, they were right, or they could say that their models averaged out to the right place.
So it looks like pretty much all the experts were wrong.
From OGH to JackW to JohnO to TSE to Kieran Pedley among PBers alone.
But so were many of the opinion polls and blogging experts.
And so were almost all the MPs - the Conservatives have been campaigning to make gains while Labour MPs were fighting defensively in their own constituencies.
A total misread of the country.
Anecdata was broadly right though. People talking to people seemed to work.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 7m7 minutes ago More Woah! Plaid Cymru sources say Ceredigion is now a four-way fight. 'Labour and the Tories have come from nowhere.'
I recall at least one model predicted that. Might well have been YouGov.
Remember Boris can't replace May. Ruth hates him as much as she hates the SNP.
So does the EU, they despise Boris, they were merely indifferent to May, if Boris is PM it is definitely hard Brexit the EU will set terms so impossible he could not meet them. If Boris is Tory leader it will only be in opposition. Hammond is the only one who could get the LDs on board and do a deal with the EU, I have to say he was very calm and assured and spoke well at the CCHQ phonebank last week when I went, I would be happy with Hammond as PM as a Tory member if there was no alternative to get a Tory government
The LD's are not going to get on board with the Tories, this time round.
It would finish them.
Farron refused to participate in the ConLD coalition in 2010. He is not going to do so now!
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 7m7 minutes ago More Woah! Plaid Cymru sources say Ceredigion is now a four-way fight. 'Labour and the Tories have come from nowhere.'
That's crazy! Can't wait for that declaration if so!
So it looks like pretty much all the experts were wrong.
From OGH to JackW to JohnO to TSE to Kieran Pedley among PBers alone.
But so were many of the opinion polls and blogging experts.
And so were almost all the MPs - the Conservatives have been campaigning to make gains while Labour MPs were fighting defensively in their own constituencies.
A total misread of the country.
yup.
Nate Silver was pretty good though.
He probably spent 30 minutes looking at the polling and pointed out the thing he could be certain of;
Remember Boris can't replace May. Ruth hates him as much as she hates the SNP.
So does the EU, they despise Boris, they were merely indifferent to May, if Boris is PM it is definitely hard Brexit the EU will set terms so impossible he could not meet them. If Boris is Tory leader it will only be in opposition. Hammond is the only one who could get the LDs on board and do a deal with the EU, I have to say he was very calm and assured and spoke well at the CCHQ phonebank last week when I went, I would be happy with Hammond as PM as a Tory member if there was no alternative to get a Tory government
The LD's are not going to get on board with the Tories, this time round.
It would finish them.
Farron refused to participate in the ConLD coalition in 2010. He is not going to do so now!
That's not exactly true. The only LD MP who wouldn't sign up to the deal was Charles Kennedy.
Newcastle North is the first seat to have gone against the exit poll trend (by a small amount). The theory is that where there is a large 2015 UKIP vote to collapse the Tories will pick up most of this and see a swing to them; where there isn't the trend is towards Labour.
How the fuck could the Tories have fucked this up so badly? If early signs are true, it's not just May who got it wrong it's the entire back office operation. The end of Crosby and Messina surely.
How the fuck could the Tories have fucked this up so badly? If early signs are true, it's not just May who got it wrong it's the entire back office operation. The end of Crosby and Messina surely.
Adrian Masters @adrianmasters84 7m7 minutes ago More Woah! Plaid Cymru sources say Ceredigion is now a four-way fight. 'Labour and the Tories have come from nowhere.'
I recall at least one model predicted that. Might well have been YouGov.
That's right: YouGov had the LDs grabbing it on 26%.
Comments
Tories to lose some remain seats but gain leave seats.
May - - what have you done
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/06/08/uk-election-has-democrats-hoping-can-send-trump-strong-message.html
(Though with my personal skills, that'll probably hurt the Lib Dems).
If Rory Stewart becomes PM, I'm joining the Conservatives.
He said no
More
Woah! Plaid Cymru sources say Ceredigion is now a four-way fight. 'Labour and the Tories have come from nowhere.'
The Tory NEV at the local elections was only 38%, so not the landslide you think it was.
I don't think the dementia tax (stupid as it was) had much to do with this result - its May's embrace of UKIP that has lost her the centrists and the country.
Nate Silver was pretty good though.
He probably spent 30 minutes looking at the polling and pointed out the thing he could be certain of;
Uncertainty.
Great.
Where is this Tory majority going to come from?
Conservative hold 10,552 majority
Swing 2.6% Cons to Labour
On the whole the exit poll is still looking good.
DUP DUP DUP
All that work to win that seat in 2010 and 2015 - gone. Thanks, Tezza.