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My brie's been warming for a couple of hours and the wine's aerating - too nervous for it right now though.FattyBolger said:oh my goodness....not sure I can stand much more of this....time for the whisky?
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I'm trying not to get my hopes up too much just yet.Casino_Royale said:
You must be delighted with this result.AlastairMeeks said:It turns out that more than one crazy backŵard-looking fantasy is popular. Who knew?
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Early results in Newcastle and Sunderland not been representative of the country in the past few elections. And remember a lot of people were saying that Tories were doing great in the NE when compared to other regions in the country eg the South and LondonHYUFD said:Sunderland
Grn 725
LD 908
Cons 12324
UKIP 2379
Lab 24675
Swing from Lab to Tories in Sunderland0 -
Sunderland counting as good as their football team then0
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This is clearly going to be an all nighter election. Results so far not really conforming to exit poll.0
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I could be wrong on that!DM_Andy said:
Still sticking with Labour under 200 seats?SouthamObserver said:I just knew that exit poll was wrong.
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If they could add 15 onto that range it would be lovely.TheScreamingEagles said:From someone I trust.
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats0 -
I really wouldn't read too much into results in safe (Labour) seats.
What we need to see is results in the marginals, both Con hold and Lab hold ones.0 -
so still crap for May given the expectations?TheScreamingEagles said:
From someone I trust.
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats0 -
If the exit poll is wrong, what does it mean for the LDs - back down to 6-10 range?
The first Scottish seat will be fascinating (and I wish this were all boring)0 -
It's the hope that kills you
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Conservatives doing much better than exit poll so far.0
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Didn't they say lab needed 68 percent in Houghton?Mortimer said:
Looks quite a bit out to be honest.SouthamObserver said:I just knew that exit poll was wrong.
In northern marginals this is going to make a massive difference.
I'm still thinking Tory Maj 50 ok...0 -
Everyone calm down. Two seats. Very early days. And not representative seats.0
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Unless the Tories don't in fact lose seats like Chipping Barnet.RobD said:
Still got a majority and May gone. Not too bad.TheScreamingEagles said:From someone I trust.
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats0 -
Brexit plus dementia tax sandwich?Monksfield said:Right off to bed. Think the Tories will have a majority of about 20-30. They'll beat the exit poll in the north, but not the south.
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Exit poll/Actual
Lab 68/60
Con 23/30
UKIP 6/6
LD 2/2
GRN 1/20 -
Not sure, if she increases her majority as she would with 335-340 May could well stay, would not be an overwhelming mandate no but would be a mandate all the same, though she may now be a bit more willing to compromise with the EU than she was beforeRobD said:
Still got a majority and May gone. Not too bad.TheScreamingEagles said:From someone I trust.
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats0 -
One more Sunderland seat and then a long pause0
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Newcastle is a much under-appreciated city. I love the place. Though some of the suburbs are dodgy.Sunil_Prasannan said:Newcastle has a better train station than Sunderland
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The exit poll was predicated on big swings to Lab in these sorts of seats, though.TheScreamingEagles said:I really wouldn't read too much into results in safe (Labour) seats.
What we need to see is results in the marginals, both Con hold and Lab hold ones.
Which seems odd given the narrative coming into the election, but still.0 -
Both very kippery seats, not likely to be typical. I think that the exit poll is not far off.KentRising said:Sunderland more Brexity than Newcastle - simple as that.
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A chunk of those out-there Labour gains looking a lot less likely?0
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euphemism?Essexit said:
My brie's been warming for a couple of hours and the wine's aerating - too nervous for it right now though.FattyBolger said:oh my goodness....not sure I can stand much more of this....time for the whisky?
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Is there a God?TheScreamingEagles said:From someone I trust.
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats0 -
Please God the exit poll is going to undershot tory seats and save me £££££0
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Tories +11% in Sunderland South. 3% Lab-Con swing....0
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3.5% swing Lab to Con in Sunderland, exit poll had it 3% swing to Labour0
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Looks like two party politics in England. But also a Brexit election with Newcastle better for Labour (REMAIN) and Sunderland for the Tories (LEAVE). Could radically change country's political map.0
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Wasn't spot on in 2015MarqueeMark said:Be ironic if the biggest polling failure this election was the usually spot-on exit poll......
(but was spot on in 2010)0 -
Right now would be a great time to have Rod Crosby on PB...0
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If I were a Conservative MP, I'd have been rather quiescent after the exit poll, and not have been criticising May ...0
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Results so far swing to CON 0
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All that has happened in Sunderland is that the Tories have scooped up Ukip vote in a safe as houses Labour seat. We shall see!0
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in the wrong seats.BenedictWhite said:Conservatives doing much better than exit poll so far.
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I can live with a modest Tory majority, just didn't want a three figure one,0
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Gripping absolutely gripping, no early night for me. No chance.0
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If this exit poll is true I've worked out what has happened
UKIP voters polled have lied about who they were going to vote for orrrrr, to put it another way
Shy UKIP-to-Lab switchers.0 -
Con maj just traded 1.5
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I miss Rod Crosby, a brilliant analystGIN1138 said:Right now would be a great time to have Rod Crosby on PB...
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Yeah, those losses look odd.AndyJS said:
Unless the Tories don't in fact lose seats like Chipping Barnet.RobD said:
Still got a majority and May gone. Not too bad.TheScreamingEagles said:From someone I trust.
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats0 -
You have to wonder if Mrs May has deliberately lost the election because she realises the folly of BREXIT. Maybe she wants the coalition of chaos to take the rap for Cameron's error of judgement.0
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YouGov is 2 out of 2 so far.0
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I'll keep posting these in case new people come on the site.
Labour targets:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0
Labour defences:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAUtJZzfnfYS_uarczPdRBJ1XgVNGfvyBU6Adz5YDGc/edit#gid=00 -
Reminds me of the old jokeTheScreamingEagles said:From someone I trust.
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats
"I'm hearing X"
"I'm not sure, you cannot believe everything you hear"
"I heard it from a source I trust"
"Yes, but I'm hearing it from you"
Just kidding0 -
The 345 +\- 10 that I posted earlier this evening was very well sourced...TheScreamingEagles said:From someone I trust.
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats0 -
Thankfully not!FattyBolger said:
euphemism?Essexit said:
My brie's been warming for a couple of hours and the wine's aerating - too nervous for it right now though.FattyBolger said:oh my goodness....not sure I can stand much more of this....time for the whisky?
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This exit poll could be absolute rubbish.0
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Suburbs nowhere near as dodgy as Birmingham, Leeds & Manchester.JosiasJessop said:
Newcastle is a much under-appreciated city. I love the place. Though some of the suburbs are dodgy.Sunil_Prasannan said:Newcastle has a better train station than Sunderland
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Isn't BBC1 England available anywhere down the EPG? Or is it on BBC News or Parliament?Dougie said:FFS, we're stuck with the BBC Scotland coverage here while there are actually English results coming in which are not being covered at all. Ridiculous.
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Irrespective of their kipperishness it's only two seat. It's far too early to draw any conclusions unless they are out by miles.foxinsoxuk said:
Both very kippery seats, not likely to be typical. I think that the exit poll is not far off.KentRising said:Sunderland more Brexity than Newcastle - simple as that.
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I'm hoping that the LDs crash, and Cons surge. Not looking likely. I'll be a rich man if that does happen though.Scrapheap_as_was said:Please God the exit poll is going to undershot tory seats and save me £££££
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Be careful - Exit is forecasting big variations.
It's got very big Con gains in Scotland and Wales
Plenty of scope for Con to underperform in other areas.0 -
There was in 1992.......Casino_Royale said:
Is there a God?TheScreamingEagles said:From someone I trust.
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats0 -
Tory 2017 still lower than Tory + UKIP 2015 in Sunderland. That's a good result. If WWC were breaking against Corbyn's Labour that would have been noticeable there I reckon - hasn't happened.0
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They could have 6 Scottish seats, 1 Welsh, and maybe just 4 or 5 English ones...Chameleon said:
They'll be a majority Scottish party. Heard it here first.kle4 said:If the exit poll is wrong, what does it mean for the LDs - back down to 6-10 range?
The first Scottish seat will be fascinating (and I wish this were all boring)0 -
Confession time.
5 weeks ago, I told my girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.0 -
Nineteen Ninety Two0
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Swindon N key!!!!
Due around 1am0 -
Not betting in-play myself, but if you do think the Conservatives will do much better than expected, they're 5.9 on Betfair Exchange for 350-399.
Two seats is not enough information to be confident, in my view.
When are the next few expected, and when do we get some bellwethers?0 -
Probably just means the swing is higher to Labour elsewhere with the Tories piling up votes in seats that they don't win.jonny83 said:
Yep Kellner saying the same. Was expecting something like 7%.Richard_Nabavi said:Much better for the Conservatives in Newcastle than the exit poll expected
Tory exit poll figures must have a large downside risk I think.0 -
I must say a couple shots of Grouse do improve one's view of things.0
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Oh, Frank Underwood's stunt double is on screen.0
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The YouGov model looking fairly solid so far.0
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Based on these first 2 seats I am forecasting a repeat of 2015 with the Tories slowing crawling to a very small majority over the night.
Not sure that's enough to save Theresa though.0 -
Which means in 2022...CarlottaVance said:
There was in 1992.......Casino_Royale said:
Is there a God?TheScreamingEagles said:From someone I trust.
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats0 -
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Here is the list of seats where we need information - all others are irrelevantTheScreamingEagles said:I really wouldn't read too much into results in safe (Labour) seats.
What we need to see is results in the marginals, both Con hold and Lab hold ones.
Ayr, Carrick & Cummnock
Ochil & South Perthshire
East othian
East REnfreshwire
Aberdeen South
Perth & North Perthshire
Fife North East
DCT
D&G
BRS
Aberdeen South
Bath0 -
Tories 302 seats. They seem to have predicted the Labour vote to be more efficiently-distributed than the exit poll is suggesting.Chameleon said:0 -
They are usually very reliable.kle4 said:
Reminds me of the old jokeTheScreamingEagles said:From someone I trust.
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats
"I'm hearing X"
"I'm not sure, you cannot believe everything you hear"
"I heard it from a source I trust"
"Yes, but I'm hearing it from you"
Just kidding
That said they told me Con majority was nailed on 60+0 -
Go on, find a prediction that isn't 2-for-2 from Newcastle C and H&SS...DanSmith said:YouGov is 2 out of 2 so far.
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Odd. They got it almost spot on in the last 3 or 4 elections.The_Apocalypse said:This exit poll could be absolute rubbish.
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I think that might be right - they were making progress in Labour heartlands, but not enough to win,and they're going backwards in the marginals.JonathanD said:
Probably just means the swing is higher to Labour elsewhere with the Tories piling up votes in seats that they don't win.jonny83 said:
Yep Kellner saying the same. Was expecting something like 7%.Richard_Nabavi said:Much better for the Conservatives in Newcastle than the exit poll expected
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Mason not exactly confident0
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Montgomerie should STFU. He's going to look like an idiot if the Tories do indeed get a majority,0
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Shades of Clinton v Trump too, exit polls had Clinton winner, Trump won Electoral College. Same in Israel in 2015, exit polls forecast a tie between Likud and centre left Zionist Union, Netanyahu and Likud won by 5%AR404 said:Shades of Clinton v Sanders? I remember Sanders underperformed the exit poll in nearly all contests in Dem primary - theory was that his supporters louder and this exagerrated the lead - possible comparison?
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Scotland is the one place where the LDs will benefit massively from tactical voting.kle4 said:If the exit poll is wrong, what does it mean for the LDs - back down to 6-10 range?
The first Scottish seat will be fascinating (and I wish this were all boring)
Where could they gain:
East Dunbartonshire
CS&ER
RL&S
Fife NE
Edinburgh West
Argyll & Bute
7 Scottish seats? Quite possible.0 -
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Ok, Popcorn open0
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You Gov appears to be bang on.
So far.0 -
So that's 331 to 329 for the Tories and she's given up the centre ground of politics to the left. Fucking useless.SouthamObserver said:0 -
I don't think that's how the Exit Poll works. The estimates for seats like Sunderland are based on their Exit Poll sample.JonathanD said:
Probably just means the swing is higher to Labour elsewhere with the Tories piling up votes in seats that they don't win.jonny83 said:
Yep Kellner saying the same. Was expecting something like 7%.Richard_Nabavi said:Much better for the Conservatives in Newcastle than the exit poll expected
Tory exit poll figures must have a large downside risk I think.0 -
These Tory sources convinced this is wrong the same ones who said a 80-120 majority was a dead cert only a few hour ago??0
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Does she have a lovely shiny foreign passport, TSE?TheScreamingEagles said:Confession time.
5 weeks ago, I told my girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.
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Fuck I've a meeting with my boss at 9.00 tomorrow, trying to think of a good reason to cancel0
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Re Scotland, it'll take some time to find out. The question is the level of tactical voting.0
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Just as a point of fact, the great majority of constituencies in England & Wales are Brexit. And the Tories have only one way to go in Scotland, which is up.
There just aren't that many chattering class constituencies Labour can win. Chipping Barnet, held even in 1997? Not a bloody chance.0 -
You'll never make it as a pundit unless you're willing to look like an idiot, but don't let it slow you down from predicting in future when you are wrong!The_Apocalypse said:Montgomerie should STFU. He's going to look like an idiot if the Tories do indeed get a majority,
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It's 1922 for May at this rate.Jonathan said:Nineteen Ninety Two
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Yep. And these little seats we start with in the north-east are always odd.MikeL said:Be careful - Exit is forecasting big variations.
It's got very big Con gains in Scotland and Wales
Plenty of scope for Con to underperform in other areas.
I think Con will do very badly in the south (Brexit) and the shire marginals (WFA and social care)
The exit poll is right IMO but we shall see.0 -
Question, does the FTPA still apply?0
