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  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Is the Exit poll wrong? only 2.1% swing, but 7% predicted....
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Out of line with exit poll apparently. Better for Tories
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Anti-Tory tactical voting?
  • Essexit
    Essexit Posts: 1,966
    Kellner reckons Newcastle Central 'should' have had 7% swing to Labour not 2.1%, if exit poll is right. Fingers crossed.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    AndyJS said:

    Kellner: Tories do substantially better in Newcastle Central than expected.

    Maybe Tories heading for majority after all.

    hunchman said:

    Newcastle Central not out of line with the exit poll

    Both cannot be right.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    As I thought the exit poll was wrong. Tory majority pretty certain.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Not sure where the exit poll would suggest 7% swing to Lab in Newcastle?!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    MikeL said:

    Con massive outperform Exit in Newcastle.

    Argh, I can't take this! :o
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    What has John Curtice done to his hair?
  • CaptainMatt
    CaptainMatt Posts: 42
    alex. said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    alex. said:

    Apologies - has anyone answered the question about how the Exit poll samples postal voters?

    They don't take account of postals.
    Well that could make a massive difference couldn't it? How many youngsters use postal votes? Won't that exaggerate the presumed assumption that postal votes reflect the wider electorate?
    Sounds plausible. Postal voting = about 17% of all votes. Could make a big difference.

    Will be interesting to see how Sunderland South compares to the exit poll. From what I read, that is a big postal voting seat. Labour underperforming here could be a sign of what you say.
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    edited June 2017
    The_Apocalypse said:

    If we get Soft Brexit/no Brexit - my dad will be mad. I'll be happy.

    If we get No Brexit, particularly without a second referendum or a party (or coalition of parties) explicitly pledging No Brexit winning a General Election, the political stability of this country would be in serious jeopardy. It would be seen, by a large part of this country, as a grave betrayal of democracy

    In the most moderate scenario I can imagine, you'd see UKIP on 25%-30% in the polls. (This is not in the least bit outlandish, given their previous polling highs and the backlash an unmandated No Brexit would cause. Even No Brexit With Mandate could conceivably see a UKIP resurrection.)

    I'm not sure what the most severe plausible scenario is. But it would not be pretty.

    I think Remainers need to be very, very, very, very careful what they wish for here.
  • waitingfortonight
    waitingfortonight Posts: 54
    Green and Lib Dem vote collapsed in Newcastle.

    Lib Dem nailed on to lose seats in England....
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Already this exit poll looks wrong
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,357
    FF43 said:

    This I agree with.
    https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/872935091491811328

    Agreed.
    IF the exit poll is correct (who knows at this stage), we don't even have a coalition of chaos - just the chaos.

  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    The exit poll is massively out already...
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Blimey 67% turnout
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Already this exit poll looks wrong

    I never believed it would be quite as good for Labour as it said.
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    SeanT said:

    FF43 said:

    This I agree with.
    https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/872935091491811328

    It's called democracy.
    This country was democratically fucked by that stupid bloody referendum. That better?

  • Tim_B
    Tim_B Posts: 7,669
    Anyone have a video feed available in the US (I'm stuck with no access to BBC TV channels)
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Kellner: Tories do substantially better in Newcastle Central than expected.

    Maybe Tories heading for majority after all.

    hunchman said:

    Newcastle Central not out of line with the exit poll

    Both cannot be right.
    Sky saying in line with exit poll
  • EDW20000
    EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Betfair 1.86 for Tory OM. Interesting.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Much better for the Conservatives in Newcastle than the exit poll expected

    Who says the exit poll is consistent and uniform?

    It's in the marginals that it counts, and the Tory-Lab swing may well be greater there.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Kellner: Tories do substantially better in Newcastle Central than expected.

    Maybe Tories heading for majority after all.

    hunchman said:

    Newcastle Central not out of line with the exit poll

    Both cannot be right.
    Kellner and Curtis confirm what I said.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    tlg86 said:

    Substantially better for the Tories, but in Newcastle. What about elsewhere?



    Possibly Con doing well in WWC lab seats, but not enough to win them.

    Stoke central byelection result, in an actual election.

    Screwed by FPTP.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Mortimer said:

    The exit poll is massively out already...

    Yet Curtice seems to think that the fact it's swung to Labour is good for them. Hmmm.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    SouthamObserver said:

    As I thought the exit poll was wrong. Tory majority pretty certain.

    I pray you are right but I will be shocked if you are.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Model said 7% swing to Labour - was actually 2%.....
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Essexit said:

    Kellner reckons Newcastle Central 'should' have had 7% swing to Labour not 2.1%, if exit poll is right. Fingers crossed.

    Stacking up votes in safe areas? who knows..
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Essexit said:

    Kellner reckons Newcastle Central 'should' have had 7% swing to Labour not 2.1%, if exit poll is right. Fingers crossed.

    I have a theory areas already strongly Labour won't be as dramatic as others. I think the marginals are where Labour have swung it this time - they were not hugely enthused by the Tories last time, and the good Labour campaign swayed them.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    HYUFD said:

    Already this exit poll looks wrong

    In one seat
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Curtice: Turnout up encouraging for Lab
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    edited June 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Anti-Tory tactical voting?

    Yes look at how much the LD and Green vote was squeezed.

    The UKIP vote seems to have gone 50/50 in the end.
  • socialliberal
    socialliberal Posts: 41
    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Con massive outperform Exit in Newcastle.

    Argh, I can't take this! :o
    Too true. My heart is pumping like mad. Why, oh why do we do this?
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Labour vote up 10%. Tories by 6%. The young have indeed voted.
  • DM_Andy
    DM_Andy Posts: 1,400
    Peter Kellner expecting a 7% swing Con to Lab? That would surely be Labour majority territory.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Wait a sec. Newcastle is a very large student constituency. Con outperform exit poll. Exit poll looks wrong then. Con majority.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    socialliberal said:

    RobD said:

    MikeL said:

    Con massive outperform Exit in Newcastle.

    Argh, I can't take this! :o
    Too true. My heart is pumping like mad. Why, oh why do we do this?
    I take it back, I want electronic voting so it can be counted instantly. :D
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Slackbladder said:

    Is the Exit poll wrong? only 2.1% swing, but 7% predicted....

    The PB Tories were claiming NE as their best area, could well mean that bigger swings elsewhere.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Con supporters should take no comfort in these early seats. The first seats are always a bit odd...

    We need to see what damage TM has done in the south and the shire marginals.
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Kellner: Tories do substantially better in Newcastle Central than expected.

    Maybe Tories heading for majority after all.

    hunchman said:

    Newcastle Central not out of line with the exit poll

    Both cannot be right.
    Hmm, let me think. Curtice or a conspiracy theorist?
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Sunderland South now...
  • Rhubarb
    Rhubarb Posts: 359
    Newcastle Uni is still in term.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    MyBurningEars said:

    If we get No Brexit, particularly without a second referendum or a party (or coalition of parties) explicitly pledging No Brexit winning a General Election, the political stability of this country would be in serious jeopardy. It would be seen, by a large part of this country, as a grave betrayal of democracy

    Well said. That would be playing with fire.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    AndyJS said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Kellner: Tories do substantially better in Newcastle Central than expected.

    Maybe Tories heading for majority after all.

    hunchman said:

    Newcastle Central not out of line with the exit poll

    Both cannot be right.
    Kellner and Curtis confirm what I said.
    And yet
    Floater said:

    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Kellner: Tories do substantially better in Newcastle Central than expected.

    Maybe Tories heading for majority after all.

    hunchman said:

    Newcastle Central not out of line with the exit poll

    Both cannot be right.
    Sky saying in line with exit poll
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Buy a new microphone Sunderland
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/872937721748213760
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Chameleon said:

    Wait a sec. Newcastle is a very large student constituency. Con outperform exit poll. Exit poll looks wrong then. Con majority.

    You just want that 16/1 to come through :)
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Tories up 5,000 in Houghton.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/872937721748213760

    Wait, they've hired Abbott as their master strategist? :o
  • Gallowgate
    Gallowgate Posts: 20,709
    Rhubarb said:

    Newcastle Uni is still in term.

    Most Newcastle Uni students don't live in Newcastle Central.
  • Essexit
    Essexit Posts: 1,966
    Freggles said:

    Buy a new microphone Sunderland

    +1
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/872937721748213760

    How can it be wrong?

    Curtice and Fisher know their stuff.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Swing to Con in Sunderland South.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Sunderland: UKIP vote moving to both Cons and Labour?
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    I just knew that exit poll was wrong.
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    The Betfair odds are still implying a Tory majority is more likely than not.

    Does anyone have a feel for how much that may be influenced by the large volume of bets that were placed when a Tory majority still seemed to be more or less a foregone conclusion?
  • AR404
    AR404 Posts: 21
    Shades of Clinton v Sanders? I remember Sanders underperformed the exit poll in nearly all contests in Dem primary - theory was that his supporters louder and this exagerrated the lead - possible comparison?
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Could this poll be wrong?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Swing to Tories in Houghton. Lab maj down. I think.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Sunderland
    Grn 725
    LD 908
    Cons 12324
    UKIP 2379
    Lab 24675
    Swing from Lab to Tories in Sunderland
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited June 2017
    Swing to Con 0.8% after two results, I believe.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Freggles said:

    Buy a new microphone Sunderland

    Spend all their money on senior staff salaries.
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    jonny83 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Much better for the Conservatives in Newcastle than the exit poll expected

    Yep Kellner saying the same. Was expecting something like 7%.
    Curtice says expected Newcastle less than av swing because Leave area. So NB there are untested in previous elections assumptions in the exit poll model.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Newcastle has a better train station than Sunderland :lol:
  • Rhubarb
    Rhubarb Posts: 359
    Gallowgate said:

    Rhubarb said:

    Newcastle Uni is still in term.

    Most Newcastle Uni students don't live in Newcastle Central.
    Ah! Thanks!
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Postal votes.
  • waitingfortonight
    waitingfortonight Posts: 54
    Tory vote share in Sunderland South VERY good.

    Exit poll a load of bollocks.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    SouthamObserver said:

    I just knew that exit poll was wrong.

    Looks quite a bit out to be honest.

    In northern marginals this is going to make a massive difference.

    I'm still thinking Tory Maj 50 ok...
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Glad BBC have got a grip of the numbers as ever!
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/872937721748213760

    How can it be wrong?

    Curtice and Fisher know their stuff.
    Postal votes
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Another big result for the Tory party.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Kellner says Tories done substantially better than exit poll in Sunderland, Labour substantially worse
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    oooohhhh another seat not borne out by the poll
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Already this exit poll looks wrong

    I never believed it would be quite as good for Labour as it said.
    It could be even better.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    jonny83 said:

    Could this poll be wrong?

    Exit poll looking just a touch wobbly. But early days.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Well, it was fun while it lasted, but it looks like Con maj is still incoming.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    Houghton and Sunderland swing to consrrvatives - it is all weird
  • JohnLilburne
    JohnLilburne Posts: 6,879
    Rhubarb said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Rhubarb said:

    Newcastle Uni is still in term.

    Most Newcastle Uni students don't live in Newcastle Central.
    Ah! Thanks!
    I think I used to live in Tyne Bridge
  • EDW20000
    EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Exit poll fail, Tory OM will be 20+
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    From someone I trust.

    Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    jonny83 said:

    Could this poll be wrong?

    I think we need to be cautious. Real shocker for Curtice and the crew if their methods failed so significantly. I think we're being screwed by really weird variations across the country.
  • geoffw
    geoffw Posts: 9,161
    1974 redux.
  • FattyBolger
    FattyBolger Posts: 299
    oh my goodness....not sure I can stand much more of this....time for the whisky?
  • TravelJunkie
    TravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Ukip votr
    AndyJS said:

    Tories up 5,000 in Houghton.

    Ukip vote was 8280 in 2015. 22%
  • DM_Andy
    DM_Andy Posts: 1,400
    SouthamObserver said:

    I just knew that exit poll was wrong.

    Still sticking with Labour under 200 seats?

  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Large(ish) Con majority seems slightly more likely.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Turnout up in Sunderland too
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    waitingfortonight said:

    Green and Lib Dem vote collapsed in Newcastle.

    Lib Dem nailed on to lose seats in England....

    I wouldn't go as far as "nailed on", I would say "probable".

    LDs will probably get 7% of the vote in Scotland, but more than 10% of the seats.

    Bonkers.

    And they'll get 8 or 9% of the vote in England, and less than 1% of the seats.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Sunderland more Brexity than Newcastle - simple as that.
  • MyBurningEars
    MyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Chameleon said:

    Chris said:

    Slackbladder said:

    Already I'm seeing rumbles on twitter that this could 'stop' Brexit...this could get very nasty very quickly

    Brexit can't realistically be stopped, now that Article 50 has been invoked. The question is, what kind of Brexit. If the woman whose answer to that question was just "Brexit means Brexit" is on the way out, that can only be a step forward.
    It can, the EU would probably let us cancel it.
    I think this is true - if the UK elected an explicitly Remain-backing PM this election I'm sure the EU leaders would be delighted to welcome the UK back into the fold.

    However, there is another political consideration here - would any potential PM after this election, from Conservative or Labour (in the latter case I guess we can be pretty sure it would be Corbyn, the former maybe not so sure!) dare to cancel Article 50?

    Whoever wins this election, they were not elected on a Cancel Article 50 ticket and the backlash against it would be severe.

    What is more plausible, perhaps in a Coalition of Chaos type of arrangement, is trying to get the EU to accept a "temporary" withdrawal of Article 50 "while the UK redetermines its future", perhaps via a second referendum. An outright cancellation of Project Brexit would surely only have been on the cards if the Lib Dems had won it for the 48%?
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    edited June 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From someone I trust.

    Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats

    Based on what, though?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    AndyJS said:

    jonny83 said:

    Could this poll be wrong?

    Exit poll looking just a touch wobbly. But early days.
    BBC on these results facing their worst exit poll since 1987, then they forecast Thatcher just scraping past Kinnock with a 26 seat majority, once the results came in Thatcher won a 102 seat majority
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From someone I trust.

    Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats

    Still got a majority and May gone. Not too bad.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Let's just remember.

    Which has been closer to the results so far: ICM or the Exit Poll?
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Right off to bed. Think the Tories will have a majority of about 20-30. They'll beat the exit poll in the north, but not the south.
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    waitingfortonight said:

    Tory vote share in Sunderland South VERY good.

    Exit poll a load of bollocks.

    But Con + UKIP is well down on 2015.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Ave_it said:

    Glad BBC have got a grip of the numbers as ever!

    Watching SKY :)
  • waitingfortonight
    waitingfortonight Posts: 54
    Why are they saying Labour doing better than pre-election polls. Which polls???
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Be ironic if the biggest polling failure this election was the usually spot-on exit poll......
  • Dougie
    Dougie Posts: 57
    FFS, we're stuck with the BBC Scotland coverage here while there are actually English results coming in which are not being covered at all. Ridiculous.
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