politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Election eve special
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I don't have your email address at the moment. I'm going to be filling in my Labour defence sheet during the night.BenedictWhite said:
Could you email me a copy please? Do you have my email? Also where would someone put in results as they come in? Or are you staying up all night to fill it out?AndyJS said:
I think you can copy the data into another document. Or I can send you a copy via email.BenedictWhite said:
Does anyone know if we can edit it or download a copy etc? (I have copied and pasted it)Chris_A said:re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAUtJZzfnfYS_uarczPdRBJ1XgVNGfvyBU6Adz5YDGc/edit#gid=00 -
It's an 11,000 sample I think – sure Lyons said that on DP.Andrew said:
Sensible option would be +3, since the next lowest is now +4. Gives em some chance of being most accurate, and a 2point move is kinda meaningless on a 1k sample.hunchman said:
Do you think they will raise the white flag like YouGov?!numbertwelve said:This Survation poll had better be worth it
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He'll probably be on our screens for the next 5 years whatever happens.The_Apocalypse said:If Corbyn gets in, then that's Paul Mason on our screens for the next 5 years then....
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No, name calling is infinitely worse than stabbing someone in the eye or running them over.isam said:
They're not as serious as that.Floater said:
Does he class all the terror attacks and foiled terror attacks as hate crimes?isam said:I wish all Islamic extremists did was commit 'hate crime'
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8725764101996298250 -
A claim that is once again all too predictable (see Brexit aftermath) and handy for the Mayor of London to deflect more inconvenient questions about integration of ethnic minorities.Floater said:
Does he class all the terror attacks and foiled terror attacks as hate crimes?isam said:I wish all Islamic extremists did was commit 'hate crime'
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/872576410199629825
Allegations are not convictions. Was there any actual evidence that hate crime convictions rose following the Brexit vote? I recall lots of anecdotes presented as fact by the MSM.0 -
Two seats I didn't comment on last night as Labour holds - Chorley - think Lindsay Hoyle personal vote will just about see him through there, plus Chorley has been drifting long term to Labour over the past 20-30 years. Harrow West - I've got this down as a Labour hold, I assume that the demographics there are still shifting towards Labour and Gareth Thomas looks to be well dug in there. Does anyone have more info on either of those?0
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That's interesting. That looks totally different and I have links like file etc. Can you post your link to the election night sheet please.AndyJS said:
I don't have your email address at the moment. I'm going to be filling in my Labour defence sheet during the night.BenedictWhite said:
Could you email me a copy please? Do you have my email? Also where would someone put in results as they come in? Or are you staying up all night to fill it out?AndyJS said:
I think you can copy the data into another document. Or I can send you a copy via email.BenedictWhite said:
Does anyone know if we can edit it or download a copy etc? (I have copied and pasted it)Chris_A said:re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAUtJZzfnfYS_uarczPdRBJ1XgVNGfvyBU6Adz5YDGc/edit#gid=00 -
True. He's made Newsnight (this time round) that bit more interesting I have to say, despite disagreeing with quite a few of his views.AndyJS said:
He'll probably be on our screens for the next 5 years whatever happens.The_Apocalypse said:If Corbyn gets in, then that's Paul Mason on our screens for the next 5 years then....
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Mid life crisis leather jackets don't pay for themselves.AndyJS said:
He'll probably be on our screens for the next 5 years whatever happens.The_Apocalypse said:If Corbyn gets in, then that's Paul Mason on our screens for the next 5 years then....
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Harrow W - I live near there - we (CON) have no chancehunchman said:Two seats I didn't comment on last night as Labour holds - Chorley - think Lindsay Hoyle personal vote will just about see him through there, plus Chorley has been drifting long term to Labour over the past 20-30 years. Harrow West - I've got this down as a Labour hold, I assume that the demographics there are still shifting towards Labour and Gareth Thomas looks to be well dug in there. Does anyone have more info on either of those?
Don't suppose when Gareth overturned a CON maj of 18,000 in 1997 he would be looking forward to a 6th term!
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Clearly trying to imitate Yannis Varoufakis.kle4 said:
Mid life crisis leather jackets don't pay for themselves.AndyJS said:
He'll probably be on our screens for the next 5 years whatever happens.The_Apocalypse said:If Corbyn gets in, then that's Paul Mason on our screens for the next 5 years then....
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Benedict:
It's the running totals for the 2015 election with declaration times.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OmJVW05bWEn2a9ak4BJGe_6Jm_u2qdN9DK0GqqeV8Gg/edit#gid=00 -
Would be good if that's the case - really they should all do that for their final poll. I see Surveymonkey did (also 11k), and Panelbase went 1k>3k. ICM only 1500 final though, seems a little cheap, given that's the number everyone will judge you on.Bobajob_PB said:
It's an 11,000 sample I think – sure Lyons said that on DP.
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I would expect the Scottish counts to be much the same timings as in 2015 since there were no local elections then either.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:
Many Scottish seats declare 2am to 4 am. Edinburgh and Glasgow do centralised counts, so depending on turnout can be 4am to 6am.kle4 said:Been told by an acquaintance that it'll be around 3am before most of the Tory targets will be declared in Scotland - we should have an overall picture by then though, right?
Berwickshire, R & S is normally last.
Edinburgh always takes longer than it should for no apparent reason since the counting centre is no more than 30minutes from almost any part of the city. Glasgow seats tend to have many fewer actual votes they will be quicker.0 -
@Ave_it Bed time!!!!! You are going to be joining us and staying up all of tomorrow night I hope?Ave_it said:Survation - Eye of the Tiger
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btPJPFnesV40 -
LOL!!Ave_it said:Survation - Eye of the Tiger
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btPJPFnesV40 -
Really no such thing, no money is easy or safeanother_richard said:Any recommendations for a safe constituency I park some of my bank balance for a short term tax free easy return ?
Norwich South Lab 1/4 SkyBet looks good to me.0 -
I remember that result in 1997 extremely well. As a young Tory activist in Eltham, that one left me speechless. The swings that Blair achieved in mid to outer London were spectacular. It really bears no resemblance demographically to the seat that Hugh Dykes won back in 1992!Ave_it said:
Harrow W - I live near there - we (CON) have no chancehunchman said:Two seats I didn't comment on last night as Labour holds - Chorley - think Lindsay Hoyle personal vote will just about see him through there, plus Chorley has been drifting long term to Labour over the past 20-30 years. Harrow West - I've got this down as a Labour hold, I assume that the demographics there are still shifting towards Labour and Gareth Thomas looks to be well dug in there. Does anyone have more info on either of those?
Don't suppose when Gareth overturned a CON maj of 18,000 in 1997 he would be looking forward to a 6th term!0 -
Halifax?
Penistone & Stocksbridge?
Middlesborough S?
Blackpool S?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwtSdJaPCSI
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Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.AndyJS said:Benedict:
It's the running totals for the 2015 election with declaration times.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OmJVW05bWEn2a9ak4BJGe_6Jm_u2qdN9DK0GqqeV8Gg/edit#gid=00 -
So we have Tory poll leads from 12 -1.0
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I think I'll call that "brave". We'll see tomorrow.brokenwheel said:0 -
I concur with that rangeThe_Apocalypse said:So we have Tory poll leads from 12 -1.
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CON SURGE! +1 0
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Reports are coming in that May, Johnson, Paul Dacre and the London editor of the Sun have all been reported to the police for being in contravention of the People's Act. From what I can understand, it is to passing off as true, the unsubstantiated and incorrect, acts, actions and words of other candidates in an election. And yes, it is serious. A recent case after a GE when a returning cabinet minister was forced to stand down from his seat, causing a by-election, and I gather, his imprisonment.Cyclefree said:
OTOH the Tories are now sending leaflets out highlighting Labour's garden/council tax increases and what it will cost the average NW6 homeowner - about £12,000 p.a.Nigelb said:
I don't claim anything approaching your combined predictive value, but I feel similarly.Cyclefree said:Good evening all.
I have been at a family funeral, the second in two weeks. It was a magnificent Brideshead-style Anglo-Irish Catholic service followed by a brilliant, funny and boozy wake that my much beloved cousin would have loved!
I see that @david_herdson has joined me in thinking that Corbyn might just do it.
Ps: The Sun in Scotland supports the SNP.0 -
Well that was a waste of timebrokenwheel said:0 -
LOL - really ?BenedictWhite said:
I think I'll call that "brave". We'll see tomorrow.brokenwheel said:0 -
Lab, Exeter: 1/4.another_richard said:Any recommendations for a safe constituency I park some of my bank balance for a short term tax free easy return ?
Norwich South Lab 1/4 SkyBet looks good to me.
Con, Torbay: 1/6.0 -
How do I get a ticket to the polling disaster inquiry MK II?0
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I would say one is bound to be near. I suspect not though.The_Apocalypse said:So we have Tory poll leads from 12 -1.
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Survation
CON 41 (+1)
LAB 40 (+1)
LIB 8 (=)
KIP 2 (-3)
GRN 2 (=)0 -
And a mere 0.9 lead (for what that is worth) in the unrounded percentages.williamglenn said:
Well, Survation are bound to get the bragging rights if the result is anywhere from Lab lead to 3-4 lead.0 -
No - as in the text. Talking of ICM final poll, 50-100 majority for Con and urging caution on leadership challenges before listing the main runners/riders.Brom said:
Damning as in not overtly backing Corbyn on the front page?Dadge said:I thought the Sun front page was bad, but the Guardian front page is damning.
Not much of a motivational early morning read for the faithful.... although most of them will be reaching for the Morning Star with their cornflakes I guess.
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Is 100% of the rise attributable to one tweeter from Pennsylvania Avenue?Floater said:
Does he class all the terror attacks and foiled terror attacks as hate crimes?isam said:I wish all Islamic extremists did was commit 'hate crime'
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8725764101996298250 -
Survation the kamikaze pollster!williamglenn said:0 -
This John Hemming?hunchman said:I quite like John Hemming, he's one of the better Lib Dems, particularly his work over child abuse when an MP.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-256412470 -
Fair play to survation.
I think they learned their lesson.0 -
Peoples act? None exists. Of it's for accusing Corbyn of being a friend of terrorists, then you can't involve editors in that, if it is meant to refer to the Representation of the Peoples act (1983), and besides which it isn't a false statement.OchEye said:
Reports are coming in that May, Johnson, Paul Dacre and the London editor of the Sun have all been reported to the police for being in contravention of the People's Act. From what I can understand, it is to passing off as true, the unsubstantiated and incorrect, acts, actions and words of other candidates in an election. And yes, it is serious. A recent case after a GE when a returning cabinet minister was forced to stand down from his seat, causing a by-election, and I gather, his imprisonment.Cyclefree said:
OTOH the Tories are now sending leaflets out highlighting Labour's garden/council tax increases and what it will cost the average NW6 homeowner - about £12,000 p.a.Nigelb said:
I don't claim anything approaching your combined predictive value, but I feel similarly.Cyclefree said:Good evening all.
I have been at a family funeral, the second in two weeks. It was a magnificent Brideshead-style Anglo-Irish Catholic service followed by a brilliant, funny and boozy wake that my much beloved cousin would have loved!
I see that @david_herdson has joined me in thinking that Corbyn might just do it.
Ps: The Sun in Scotland supports the SNP.0 -
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.BenedictWhite said:
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.AndyJS said:Benedict:
It's the running totals for the 2015 election with declaration times.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OmJVW05bWEn2a9ak4BJGe_6Jm_u2qdN9DK0GqqeV8Gg/edit#gid=00 -
We came top in all the GE polls!
Let's hope it's for real tomorrow!
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I considered Exeter as well.AndyJS said:
Lab, Exeter: 1/4.another_richard said:Any recommendations for a safe constituency I park some of my bank balance for a short term tax free easy return ?
Norwich South Lab 1/4 SkyBet looks good to me.
Con, Torbay: 1/6.
I'd rather bet on safe Labour seats in case I make a mistake.0 -
So just missing Ipsos, we have: 1 4 5 7 7 8 10 12. Mean of 6.75, with Ipsos perhaps to drag that down a fraction.0
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Labour on 40%? Very very very brave. What do you think Labour will get?Floater said:
LOL - really ?BenedictWhite said:
I think I'll call that "brave". We'll see tomorrow.brokenwheel said:0 -
The man who predicted Brexit and Trump hinting at a Tory majority of 64 for tomorrow:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/britain/britain-the-thursday-election/0 -
Many thanks. Very helpful thoughAndyJS said:
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.BenedictWhite said:
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.AndyJS said:Benedict:
It's the running totals for the 2015 election with declaration times.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OmJVW05bWEn2a9ak4BJGe_6Jm_u2qdN9DK0GqqeV8Gg/edit#gid=0
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Jess was nailed on from day 1 and will increase her majority. I've met John a few times and I'm unusual in that I like both of them. In some ways this contest has been unfortunate because it's drained Labour volunteers away from the more difficult contests in Northfield and Edgbaston.hunchman said:
Was looking at Hemming's twitter feed today. No better example of 'pavement' politics in action than Yardley and the Lib Dem advance. Jess Phillips high public profile helps, and she's just too far ahead from last time. I think the majority may get cut, but no realistic prospect of a Lib Dem gain. I quite like John Hemming, he's one of the better Lib Dems, particularly his work over child abuse when an MP.Pulpstar said:
Best of luck in Yardley, Jess looks way too far in front based on national trends to shift though.Chris_A said:A first for me today - leafleting for the Lib Dems in Yardley.
When you vote tomorrow remember our creaking public services and consider if you can rely on them getting even worse. http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp17067540 -
"Vans & knives take innocent lives, but names will get you headlines"Floater said:
No, name calling is infinitely worse than stabbing someone in the eye or running them over.isam said:
They're not as serious as that.Floater said:
Does he class all the terror attacks and foiled terror attacks as hate crimes?isam said:I wish all Islamic extremists did was commit 'hate crime'
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8725764101996298250 -
I do admire tse managing to make a classic David Ed miliband error in his podcast debut. Bravo. That's almost spursy.... enjoyable listen but Mrs scrap who is the 5 mins a week interest in politics usually thought you were al a bitl too harsh on t may...0
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Disappointing poll.
I was hoping for
KIP 0 (-5)
Still a day to go, however.0 -
Here's a hate crime Mr Mayor - over to you
http://hurryupharry.org/2017/06/06/the-jabir-bin-zayid-mosque-and-the-limits-of-tolerance/0 -
Don't get me started on what I think of the family courts!oldpolitics said:
This John Hemming?hunchman said:I quite like John Hemming, he's one of the better Lib Dems, particularly his work over child abuse when an MP.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-256412470 -
I did some calculations a few weeks back and in every election from 1974 onwards in the final result the Conservatives bettered both their lowest poll rating and worst position against Labour.0
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So not a single lab lead in any poll through a whole campaign. Good night...0
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Just the rigged system trying to ignore the Corbyn surge.Scrapheap_as_was said:So not a single lab lead in any poll through a whole campaign. Good night...
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Agreed Jess 11,000 clearDadge said:
Jess was nailed on from day 1 and will increase her majority. I've met John a few times and I'm unusual in that I like both of them. In some ways this contest has been unfortunate because it's drained Labour volunteers away from the more difficult contests in Northfield and Edgbaston.hunchman said:
Was looking at Hemming's twitter feed today. No better example of 'pavement' politics in action than Yardley and the Lib Dem advance. Jess Phillips high public profile helps, and she's just too far ahead from last time. I think the majority may get cut, but no realistic prospect of a Lib Dem gain. I quite like John Hemming, he's one of the better Lib Dems, particularly his work over child abuse when an MP.Pulpstar said:
Best of luck in Yardley, Jess looks way too far in front based on national trends to shift though.Chris_A said:A first for me today - leafleting for the Lib Dems in Yardley.
When you vote tomorrow remember our creaking public services and consider if you can rely on them getting even worse. http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp17067540 -
It's Polling Day!
Happy hunting to all those involved in the ground war today.
BBC News website cleared of anything political... always seems strangely clean after all the recent content.0 -
From the VoteUK forum:
BMG for The Herald:
Con 46%
Lab 33%
LD 8%
UKIP 5%
Green 3%
Is this a usual polling organisation? Never heard of them.0 -
LOL LAB 1-100 Exeter would be my estimate DYORanother_richard said:
I considered Exeter as well.AndyJS said:
Lab, Exeter: 1/4.another_richard said:Any recommendations for a safe constituency I park some of my bank balance for a short term tax free easy return ?
Norwich South Lab 1/4 SkyBet looks good to me.
Con, Torbay: 1/6.
I'd rather bet on safe Labour seats in case I make a mistake.0 -
What do you think of Erdington? I've got Edgbaston and Northfield as Tory gains, but I think Erdington will prove just out of reach. And invisible Tom Watson to hold on to West Bromwich East I think as well.Dadge said:
Jess was nailed on from day 1 and will increase her majority. I've met John a few times and I'm unusual in that I like both of them. In some ways this contest has been unfortunate because it's drained Labour volunteers away from the more difficult contests in Northfield and Edgbaston.hunchman said:
Was looking at Hemming's twitter feed today. No better example of 'pavement' politics in action than Yardley and the Lib Dem advance. Jess Phillips high public profile helps, and she's just too far ahead from last time. I think the majority may get cut, but no realistic prospect of a Lib Dem gain. I quite like John Hemming, he's one of the better Lib Dems, particularly his work over child abuse when an MP.Pulpstar said:
Best of luck in Yardley, Jess looks way too far in front based on national trends to shift though.Chris_A said:A first for me today - leafleting for the Lib Dems in Yardley.
When you vote tomorrow remember our creaking public services and consider if you can rely on them getting even worse. http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp17067540 -
All I can really say is that the tories will end up with a majority larger than they have now.BenedictWhite said:
Labour on 40%? Very very very brave. What do you think Labour will get?Floater said:
LOL - really ?BenedictWhite said:
I think I'll call that "brave". We'll see tomorrow.brokenwheel said:
Did you see that link from the Colchester paper I posted earlier - aparantly Labour ahead in the East :-)0 -
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
Ugh... is this a serious polling company?0 -
Wirral South is probably going to stay Labour.another_richard said:
I considered Exeter as well.AndyJS said:
Lab, Exeter: 1/4.another_richard said:Any recommendations for a safe constituency I park some of my bank balance for a short term tax free easy return ?
Norwich South Lab 1/4 SkyBet looks good to me.
Con, Torbay: 1/6.
I'd rather bet on safe Labour seats in case I make a mistake.
Torfaen: Lab 2/9.0 -
They were around at GE2015AndyJS said:From the VoteUK forum:
BMG for The Herald:
Con 46%
Lab 33%
LD 8%
UKIP 5%
Green 3%
Is this a usual polling organisation? Never heard of them.0 -
Not since late April 2016...Scrapheap_as_was said:So not a single lab lead in any poll through a whole campaign. Good night...
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Good night all. Good luck to all those PB'ers pounding the streets tomorrow. Make sure you've got a spare cagoule when you get drenched! Can't wait for 21 hours and 55 minutes time now!0
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Yeah they're a BPC pollster, just not done any national ones this campaign. Done a few Scottish polls.AndyJS said:From the VoteUK forum:
BMG for The Herald:
Con 46%
Lab 33%
LD 8%
UKIP 5%
Green 3%
Is this a usual polling organisation? Never heard of them.0 -
I wondered how you managed it on May 4th?BenedictWhite said:
Many thanks. Very helpful thoughAndyJS said:
To be honest I don't think it's possible to do it live on the night for more than about 20 results because they just come in too quickly. Only the broadcasters have the resources to do it. I'm going to compare the results they give with the spreadsheet. You could crowdsource it if you had an agreement for say 100 people to do 6 results each at different times during the night, but that would obviously require a lot of prior organisation. RodCrosby tried to organise something like that in 2010 but it didn't work out because not enough people took part.BenedictWhite said:
Fantastic that links works great. I presume I am going to have to add columns for 2017 to make it work for this time? (To keep some sort of running score) not that I am that good at spreadsheets.AndyJS said:Benedict:
It's the running totals for the 2015 election with declaration times.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OmJVW05bWEn2a9ak4BJGe_6Jm_u2qdN9DK0GqqeV8Gg/edit#gid=0
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@TSE sounds nothing like what I expected him to.0
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Seem to be.AndyJS said:From the VoteUK forum:
BMG for The Herald:
Con 46%
Lab 33%
LD 8%
UKIP 5%
Green 3%
Is this a usual polling organisation? Never heard of them.
The Herald uses them:
https://twitter.com/bmgresearch?lang=en0 -
Must be an outlierBobajob_PB said:Survation
CON 41 (+1)
LAB 40 (+1)
LIB 8 (=)
KIP 2 (-3)
GRN 2 (=)
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There's a poll by Qriously giving Lab a 3% lead - it's on Wiki.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner0 -
Ukip down 10 and Cons only up 4 from 2015?kle4 said:
And a mere 0.9 lead (for what that is worth) in the unrounded percentages.williamglenn said:
Well, Survation are bound to get the bragging rights if the result is anywhere from Lab lead to 3-4 lead.0 -
No. Never heard of them. Besides you can see the other bit about being close to other polls. Well, only survation now.Stereotomy said:http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
Ugh... is this a serious polling company?0 -
I hope you didn't miss my posting that particular song on here weeks ago old boy saying to replace grim with Tory?Ave_it said:Halifax?
Penistone & Stocksbridge?
Middlesborough S?
Blackpool S?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwtSdJaPCSI0 -
Another variable.. I wonder if there are more centralised counts this time? Three (rural) seats are in one centre for the first time round me. Which way does that work? Bigger team means faster.. or longer trek to get boxes in etc (or, I guess, a relatively *smaller* team) slows it down?AndyJS said:
Probably, because there aren't any local election ballots to separate out.Chris_A said:re Andy's spreadsheet from the previous thread, aren't we expecting many results to be hours earlier this time around?
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BOOM! See you all tonight from about 7pm. Ave it coverage all night!0
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Somebody decided to put it on Wikipedia. Wonder if it was themBenedictWhite said:
No. Never heard of them. Besides you can see the other bit about being close to other polls. Well, only survation now.Stereotomy said:http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
Ugh... is this a serious polling company?0 -
Is that the bollox TSE made comments about.MikeL said:There's a poll by Qriously giving Lab a 3% lead - it's on Wiki.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
And I've never heard of Qriously before.0 -
The Labour Party hired them as their official pollster, which is probably why they have been so quiet publically.another_richard said:
Seem to be.AndyJS said:From the VoteUK forum:
BMG for The Herald:
Con 46%
Lab 33%
LD 8%
UKIP 5%
Green 3%
Is this a usual polling organisation? Never heard of them.
The Herald uses them:
https://twitter.com/bmgresearch?lang=en0 -
You won't need a ticket.FrancisUrquhart said:How do I get a ticket to the polling disaster inquiry MK II?
You'll be able to see it from Space......
Happy Polling day and good luck to all those standing or working today - here's hoping it passes off without incident0 -
Harrow West is my seat - I agree it will stay red. Gareth Thomas is a good local MP - I've seen a lot more Labour posters than I have done in previous years.Ave_it said:
Harrow W - I live near there - we (CON) have no chancehunchman said:Two seats I didn't comment on last night as Labour holds - Chorley - think Lindsay Hoyle personal vote will just about see him through there, plus Chorley has been drifting long term to Labour over the past 20-30 years. Harrow West - I've got this down as a Labour hold, I assume that the demographics there are still shifting towards Labour and Gareth Thomas looks to be well dug in there. Does anyone have more info on either of those?
Don't suppose when Gareth overturned a CON maj of 18,000 in 1997 he would be looking forward to a 6th term!0 -
You should be able to see who added the edit though I haven't played with Wikipedia for some time.Stereotomy said:
Somebody decided to put it on Wikipedia. Wonder if it was themBenedictWhite said:
No. Never heard of them. Besides you can see the other bit about being close to other polls. Well, only survation now.Stereotomy said:http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
Ugh... is this a serious polling company?0 -
Doesn't seem they've released the PDF tables of their poll - odd.MikeL said:There's a poll by Qriously giving Lab a 3% lead - it's on Wiki.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
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I doubt it.Stereotomy said:http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
Ugh... is this a serious polling company?
Qriously
LAB 41
CON 39
LIB 6
SNP 4
"London-based Qriously is an ad-tech startup with an extensive list of clients including Vodafone, Audi, B&Q and organisations like the New York Police Department. Qriously conducts surveys by sending short questionnaires via mobile phone to billions of users in a matter of seconds. Using their platform, they have been able to correctly predict the outcome of the Brexit referendum, the Italian constitutional referendum, the Dutch general election and the Turkish constitutional referendum. According to Kahler, they can theoretically reach 80 per cent of smartphone users worldwide.
"Qriously conducted this survey between Sunday 4 June and today, interviewing 2,213 UK adults. Data was weighted on gender, age, region and income to be demographically representative."
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My former bridge partner. I like him, though I think he'd accept that his life has been complicated at times.oldpolitics said:
This John Hemming?hunchman said:I quite like John Hemming, he's one of the better Lib Dems, particularly his work over child abuse when an MP.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-256412470 -
A lot of the Oldies won't have mobile phones.0
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LOL....If Survation are right, I will have to watch it from Canada...CarlottaVance said:
You won't need a ticket.FrancisUrquhart said:How do I get a ticket to the polling disaster inquiry MK II?
You'll be able to see it from Space......
Happy Polling day and good luck to all those standing or working today - here's hoping it passes off without incident0 -
2pt lead I think 41/39MikeL said:There's a poll by Qriously giving Lab a 3% lead - it's on Wiki.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner0 -
BMG were polling during the 2015 election;AndyJS said:From the VoteUK forum:
BMG for The Herald:
Con 46%
Lab 33%
LD 8%
UKIP 5%
Green 3%
Is this a usual polling organisation? Never heard of them.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_20150 -
This is what they had last week with full data.The_Apocalypse said:
Doesn't seem they've released the PDF tables of their poll - odd.MikeL said:There's a poll by Qriously giving Lab a 3% lead - it's on Wiki.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
http://www.qriously.com/blog/gap-closing-between-conservative-and-labour-parties/0 -
I won't be listening as I don't want it to spoil the mystery. Never get too close to your heroes ;-)Bobajob_PB said:@TSE sounds nothing like what I expected him to.
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They claim to weight the data. You could just as easily say "a lot of youngies don't have landlines", but if the data is weighted properly it ought not matter*The_Apocalypse said:A lot of the Oldies won't have mobile phones.
*I am not saying this poll is right – I think it's bollox, just saying'
P.S. Does anyone still have/use a landline in their house? I haven't used one for years, I can't see the point of them0 -
Like the new avatar!!kle4 said:
Just the rigged system trying to ignore the Corbyn surge.Scrapheap_as_was said:So not a single lab lead in any poll through a whole campaign. Good night...
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Nah, definitely an outlierMikeL said:There's a poll by Qriously giving Lab a 3% lead - it's on Wiki.
http://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner 0
