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So now the polls are getting better and the canvassing is going in the opposite direction!
Be glad when this election is over.0 -
Cheers.TheScreamingEagles said:
47% is the figure before the spiral of silence adjustment.AlastairMeeks said:Can someone explain to me why ICM have the Conservatives at 47% in the detailed tables but it is announced as 46%?
46% is the post spiral of silence adjustment
Look at table 5, not table 4
So ICM have found noisy Tories.0 -
Subsample heaven. The gigantic swing to the Tories in the NE, if true, would explain a lot of Tory activity up there. Conversely, though, the negligible swing in both West and East Midlands would save a lot of Labour seats. The swing to Labour in SE (outside London) and SW doesn't help much beyond a few seats.HYUFD said:Final Comres swings by region since 2015
(snip)
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf
That said, we know better than to overdose on subsamples.0 -
SW swinging to Labour looks like the LibDem tactical voting unwinding.Chameleon said:
London & SE swinging heavily to lab makes sense.tlg86 said:
Obviously difficult to draw too many conclusions about sub samples, but they don't look right to me.HYUFD said:Final Comres swings by region since 2015
London
Cons 42
Lab 41
LD 11
Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons
Scotland
Cons 27
Lab 16
SNP 45
LD 9
Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf0 -
I've traded out of Tory majority. For now.david_herdson said:
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).kle4 said:Knowing posters real names ruins the mystery for me!
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.TheScreamingEagles said:David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.0 -
We will find out tomorrow but it looks like Labour is getting a swing to it in the South but everywhere else is swinging Tory, especially the North, Wales and Scotlandtlg86 said:
Obviously difficult to draw too many conclusions about sub samples, but they don't look right to me.HYUFD said:Final Comres swings by region since 2015
London
Cons 42
Lab 41
LD 11
Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons
Scotland
Cons 27
Lab 16
SNP 45
LD 9
Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf0 -
Another PBer had also just said in that thread that they'd finished leafletting, and thought the Conservatives were on 360+ so I think you may be right there.another_richard said:
I'm rather concerned about his state of mind - stress and overwork I expect.The_Apocalypse said:David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Lets consider his comment - Con at 300 but still gain Wakefield.
If the Conservatives gain Wakefield they're likely to gain at least 20 seats so to fall to 300 they would need to lose at least 50 which they presently hold.
Now does anyone think that likely ?
And what's brought on this change of mind - some leafleting in Wakefield or Hemsworth ?0 -
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Sorry to hear that, David, but relax and enjoy what's left of the evening.david_herdson said:
No, he's pissed off. In fact, he's fuming.Peter_the_Punter said:
Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.TheScreamingEagles said:David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
He might be wrong as well but the response on the doorstep this evening was not healthy (from a Con viewpoint). Maybe I was just unlucky with who I spoke to (or who spoke to me) but it's a week since I've done serious canvassing as I've been delivering for most of the interim and the mood was definitely changed.
Sorry for posting that and then buggering off. Dinner and baby duties.
It sounds like a 'bad sample' to me. Sure you'll feel better in the morning.0 -
Hung Parliament would be heavenly for me. Won't happen though.0
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e) Tonight's poll is a "rogue poll" for their series but just happens to be their final one and thus the one they'll get judged upon.MarqueeMark said:So - YouGov.
Either -
a) full of shit for the past 10 days
b) decided to herd
c) they have picked up on a massive late swing against Corbyn
d) a combo of the above.0 -
You have the night to sleep on it.kle4 said:
Boiled for me please, it's my first time.FrancisUrquhart said:I am still going to have to vote Tory just in case...The free baby better be tasty, going with the chargrilled option.
Such a thing to have on your conscience for the next five years...0 -
Con +7 doesn't guarantee a Con Maj if LDs are up in vote share and on top of that more efficient as well.
However Con supporters should be pleased with tonight's polls - because they show the fall in the lead has stopped - things have stabilised.
That could be the precursor to a last minute swing towards Con in the polling booth.
Even Kantar leader and economy fundamentals are better for Con than headline VI - which might also suggest a few people bottle it at the last minute.0 -
If , and I accept it is a big if , the Yougov poll is correct , there will be hardly any net seats changing hands . With UNS the Lib Dems would lose no seats either .-1
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Yes the LDs will get squeezed againkle4 said:
Pretty big swings to Lab in the South - not a worry for Con, whose seats are safe, but for the LDs and their future prospects?HYUFD said:Final Comres swings by region since 2015
NorthEast
Cons 44
Lab 41
LD 9
Swing 12.5% Labour to Cons
NorthWest
Cons 42
Lab 45
LD 6
Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons
Yorkshire and Humber
Cons 46
Lab 41
LD 7
Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons
West Midlands
Cons 46
Lab 34
LD 10
Swing 1.5% Labour to Cons
East Midlands
Cons 51
Lab 35
LD 3
Swing 2% Labour to Cons
Wales
Cons 40
Lab 38
LD 5
Swing 6% Labour to Cons
East
Cons 51
Lab 30
LD 12
Swing 3% Cons to Labour
London
Cons 42
Lab 41
LD 11
Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons
South East
Cons 47
Lab 29
LD 13
Swing 7.5% Cons to Labour
South West
Cons 49
Lab 29
LD 12
Swing 4.5% Cons to Labour
Scotland
Cons 27
Lab 16
SNP 45
LD 9
Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf
I'm expecting Lab to get second in many seats round here.0 -
More shy Labour supporters.AlastairMeeks said:
Cheers.TheScreamingEagles said:
47% is the figure before the spiral of silence adjustment.AlastairMeeks said:Can someone explain to me why ICM have the Conservatives at 47% in the detailed tables but it is announced as 46%?
46% is the post spiral of silence adjustment
Look at table 5, not table 4
So ICM have found noisy Tories.0 -
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If it was anyone else but you, I'd probably discount it.david_herdson said:
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).kle4 said:Knowing posters real names ruins the mystery for me!
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.TheScreamingEagles said:David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.0 -
Rest up David. We will be home comfotrably. Well done you for running two.david_herdson said:
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).kle4 said:Knowing posters real names ruins the mystery for me!
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.TheScreamingEagles said:David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.0 -
So only survation at 11.00 to come if I am right. Assume they could show a labour lead but it will miss the press and media tomorrow if it is as late as that0
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The narrative of 'they're all just harmless bunglers' was bought by the Police.
How can someone wave the ISIS flag about and not get arrested? What a joke
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/8723834951124500480 -
I'm not a Tory. I'd have been a bit upset if Milliband had won, but because I thought he was a bit useless and his social democratic paradigm no longer works because globalism etc.tlg86 said:Can I just say, I don't know why the Tories on here are worried. Their worst poll in the whole campaign has had them on 40%. ICM have them comfortably ahead. It's just a question of how badly distributed Labour's votes are and therefore how big the Tory majority is.
But that loathesome crew, Corbyn, the whole grisly crew . Milne being any where the levers of power.0 -
Well either YouGov is indicating a move to the Conservatives/from Labour or they've blinked on their polling methods.
I think, however, that those pollsters who boosted the younger peoples vote percentages are on to something even if they have magnified beyond the actual vote. I can see many good reasons why the university going young will vote Labour, its like 'here, have some free stuff!'
Whats not to like. Its self interest, one of the the most powerful motivators.
I think too some may have a score to settle over Brexit, at least in their own heads, that it was stolen..whilst they didn't bother their collective arses actually voting..
I have, on the other hand, never understood the cult like nature of much of the modern politically active left or the cult over Corbyn but it exists.
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I have half a bottle of Sainsbury's expensive whisky and then a litre of Blue Sapphire gin so I won't recognise the results, won't care and will feel very ill Friday....SandyRentool said:0 -
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.The_Apocalypse said:David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.0 -
Oh well, if Mr Corbyn becomes PM at least there will be lots to talk about. Not so sure where the betting opportunities will be, though.david_herdson said:
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).kle4 said:Knowing posters real names ruins the mystery for me!
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.TheScreamingEagles said:David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.
edited to add: good evening, everyone.0 -
So still tonight;'s survation, and someone said on twitter Ipsos tomorrow. That it? No more ORB?0
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Obviously. I'm not a barbarian.SandyRentool said:0 -
Have YouGov not done this in the previous two elections, or is my memory playing tricks on me? I seem to recall they overstated Labour more than other pollsters throughout those campaigns only to move back in their very final poll.0
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The other possibility is that, like Alastair Meeks said a few weeks ago, individual seats could swing wildly all over the place, but, given a person can only be in one place at one time, extrapolations from that to form the national picture may be wildly incorrect.The_Apocalypse said:
Another PBer had also just said in that thread that they'd finished leafletting, and thought the Conservatives were on 360+ so I think you may be right there.another_richard said:
I'm rather concerned about his state of mind - stress and overwork I expect.The_Apocalypse said:David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Lets consider his comment - Con at 300 but still gain Wakefield.
If the Conservatives gain Wakefield they're likely to gain at least 20 seats so to fall to 300 they would need to lose at least 50 which they presently hold.
Now does anyone think that likely ?
And what's brought on this change of mind - some leafleting in Wakefield or Hemsworth ?0 -
I know TSE is not a May fan, but I think he's right to emphasis the well/badly rating change. Not perfect, to be sure, but its such a massive change.
When the choices before one are reasonable, one does not need to feel guilty even if, in time, the choice taken is proven to be incorrect.IanB2 said:
You have the night to sleep on it.kle4 said:
Boiled for me please, it's my first time.FrancisUrquhart said:I am still going to have to vote Tory just in case...The free baby better be tasty, going with the chargrilled option.
Such a thing to have on your conscience for the next five years...0 -
The turning point was Question Time on Friday, IMO.MikeL said:Con +7 doesn't guarantee a Con Maj if LDs are up in vote share and on top of that more efficient as well.
However Con supporters should be pleased with tonight's polls - because they show the fall in the lead has stopped - things have stabilised.
That could be the precursor to a last minute swing towards Con in the polling booth.
Even Kantar leader and economy fundamentals are better for Con than headline VI - which might also suggest a few people bottle it at the last minute.0 -
Though it looks like there certainly will not be UNS if Comres is anything to go by, there will be a swing to Labour in the South and the Tories in the Midlands, the North, Wales and Scotland. Of course in 2015 Yougov had it tied in their final pollMarkSenior said:If , and I accept it is a big if , the Yougov poll is correct , there will be hardly any net seats changing hands . With UNS the Lib Dems would lose no seats either .
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Get some rest. Thanks for all your hard work.david_herdson said:
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.The_Apocalypse said:David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.0 -
UNS (I know, I know) suggests Tory majority of 60-odd.MarkSenior said:If , and I accept it is a big if , the Yougov poll is correct , there will be hardly any net seats changing hands . With UNS the Lib Dems would lose no seats either .
Isn't it the case that there's a range of variables in a 7 point lead? You could be looking at anything from only very minor advances to a fairly substantial win.0 -
+1Casino_Royale said:
Get some rest. Thanks for all your hard work.david_herdson said:
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.The_Apocalypse said:David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.0 -
I must say, I do think Keiran has over these podcasts shown himself to be a pretty decent pundit and presenter.0
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Hmm maybe not very positive overall for the Tories. They will do much better in the North of England, but broadly neutral or going backwards elsewhere. Bear in mind ComRes is the polling company that rates the Conservatives highest.HYUFD said:Final Comres swings by region since 2015
NorthEast
Cons 44
Lab 41
LD 9
Swing 12.5% Labour to Cons
NorthWest
Cons 42
Lab 45
LD 6
Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons
Yorkshire and Humber
Cons 46
Lab 41
LD 7
Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons
West Midlands
Cons 46
Lab 34
LD 10
Swing 1.5% Labour to Cons
East Midlands
Cons 51
Lab 35
LD 3
Swing 2% Labour to Cons
Wales
Cons 40
Lab 38
LD 5
Swing 6% Labour to Cons
East
Cons 51
Lab 30
LD 12
Swing 3% Cons to Labour
London
Cons 42
Lab 41
LD 11
Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons
South East
Cons 47
Lab 29
LD 13
Swing 7.5% Cons to Labour
South West
Cons 49
Lab 29
LD 12
Swing 4.5% Cons to Labour
Scotland
Cons 27
Lab 16
SNP 45
LD 9
Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf0 -
not sure your firm would feel the same wayAlastairMeeks said:Hung Parliament would be heavenly for me. Won't happen though.
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David, I appreciate your honesty at this late stage of the campaign. You seem to be swimming against the tide, certainly on PB, but I hope your gut feel is right.david_herdson said:
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).kle4 said:Knowing posters real names ruins the mystery for me!
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.TheScreamingEagles said:David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.0 -
+2TudorRose said:
+1Casino_Royale said:
Get some rest. Thanks for all your hard work.david_herdson said:
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.The_Apocalypse said:David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.0 -
Adjustment for DK/refused.AlastairMeeks said:Can someone explain to me why ICM have the Conservatives at 47% in the detailed tables but it is announced as 46%?
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It seems like you have an incredible amount on your plate. Hope you can get some rest. If May gets near to 325 she may be able to run Con minority government.david_herdson said:
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.The_Apocalypse said:David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.
@Casino_Royale Good point.0 -
I bet the phrase 'community relations' was mentioned somewhere along the line as well.isam said:The narrative of 'they're all just harmless bunglers' was bought by the Police.
How can someone wave the ISIS flag about and not get arrested? What a joke
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/872383495112450048
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I think one thing we've learned tonight is that David Herdson's opinions are held in high esteem by many.0
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Courage mon brave.david_herdson said:
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).kle4 said:Knowing posters real names ruins the mystery for me!
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.TheScreamingEagles said:David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.0 -
Good evening all.
I have been at a family funeral, the second in two weeks. It was a magnificent Brideshead-style Anglo-Irish Catholic service followed by a brilliant, funny and boozy wake that my much beloved cousin would have loved!
I see that @david_herdson has joined me in thinking that Corbyn might just do it.
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what time survation?
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You can have weird sampling error. As a counter to David's evening, I was out one night door-knocking in Torbay and virtually every door I went to was a) in (rare!) b) prepared to tell me how they were voting c) were all voting Tory (including switchers from other parties) d) included finding someone who wanted not only two posters - but also to make a donation to Kevin's campaign.david_herdson said:
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).kle4 said:Knowing posters real names ruins the mystery for me!
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.TheScreamingEagles said:David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.
We just joked it was down to my lucky hat. The days aren't all like that!0 -
All this election fever is distracting us from the amazing shit going own in America. Comey's written testimony is sensational and the Senate have actually put Obamacare repeal on the fast track and it could be done and dusted by July.
I'd get on Dem gains in the mid-terms right now.0 -
Of course they are. David has superb judgement.kle4 said:I think one thing we've learned tonight is that David Herdson's opinions are held in high esteem by many.
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No swing to the Conservatives in Wales in a proper full poll not a sub sample of 2 men and a sheep .HYUFD said:
Though it looks like there certainly will not be UNS if Comres is anything to go by, there will be a swing to Labour in the South and the Tories in the Midlands, the North, Wales and Scotland. Of course in 2015 Yougov had it tied in their final pollMarkSenior said:If , and I accept it is a big if , the Yougov poll is correct , there will be hardly any net seats changing hands . With UNS the Lib Dems would lose no seats either .
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Too late now. I always said she was a dud.david_herdson said:
I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).kle4 said:Knowing posters real names ruins the mystery for me!
This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.TheScreamingEagles said:David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.0 -
If that's the result, the LDs would stand still, as that gives them +2 in Scotland* and -2 in England & Wales.kle4 said:
Well, shows me as wrong.Scott_P said:
Still, exact same difference between the parties as last time, what a waste of time and effort. And LDs up but still likely to lose seats as others up even more.
Everyone always said YouGov knew what they are doing.0 -
Oh it's well deserved and I share it.AlastairMeeks said:
Of course they are. David has superb judgement.kle4 said:I think one thing we've learned tonight is that David Herdson's opinions are held in high esteem by many.
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Yougov final regional subsamples
London
Cons 37
Lab 41
LD 12
South
Cons 50
Lab 30
LD 13
Midlands/Wales
Cons 43
Lab 34
LD 10
North
Cons 38
Lab 47
LD 10
Scotland
Cons 28
Lab 22
LD 7
SNP 41
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/d8zsb99eyd/TimesResults_FINAL CALL_GB_June2017_W.pdf0 -
Also, how truly terrifying the prospect of a Corbyn victory actually is, and why everyone must go out and vote tomorrow.kle4 said:I think one thing we've learned tonight is that David Herdson's opinions are held in high esteem by many.
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I know, and with two such erudite and respected posters thinking it isn't helping the rest of us settle!Cyclefree said:Good evening all.
I have been at a family funeral, the second in two weeks. It was a magnificent Brideshead-style Anglo-Irish Catholic service followed by a brilliant, funny and boozy wake that my much beloved cousin would have loved!
I see that @david_herdson has joined me in thinking that Corbyn might just do it.0 -
Looking at the Wikipedia overview, it really does look as though the London terrorism produced a 4-point swing from Lab to Con. Obviously it could be a coincidence with so much else going on, but I wonder if the single "Enough is Enough" phrase cut through to a small but siginificant slice of waverers.
David Herdson has clearly had a bad session but we all have those sometimes - take a break for a few days once the election's over, you must have earned it.0 -
Yup, he's a nice guy to boot as well.kle4 said:I must say, I do think Keiran has over these podcasts shown himself to be a pretty decent pundit and presenter.
PB found him by accident!0 -
Martin Boon unpicks YG methodology change tonight:
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/8725626973338624010 -
The one thing we do know is that, whoever wins, they don't deserve to.
Goodnight all.0 -
No it doesn't , strict UNS in every seat would be virtually no change . Baxter and other models are not strict UNS .numbertwelve said:
UNS (I know, I know) suggests Tory majority of 60-odd.MarkSenior said:If , and I accept it is a big if , the Yougov poll is correct , there will be hardly any net seats changing hands . With UNS the Lib Dems would lose no seats either .
Isn't it the case that there's a range of variables in a 7 point lead? You could be looking at anything from only very minor advances to a fairly substantial win.0 -
And he is reporting from the North, where the Tories are supposedly doing a historical best according to the polls.david_herdson said:
Apologies for that. I'll be disappearing for another 20 mins now. More domestics.The_Apocalypse said:David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
Sorry to put the cat among them but I'm calling it as I see and hear it.
Just to confirm, the 300 was in retrospect overdoing it but I wouldn't be buying over 325.0 -
They finished the fieldwork at 9pm, so I'm guessing in the next 90 mins or so.Scrapheap_as_was said:what time survation?
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Don't share your politics but reminded once again, after my seven year absence from here, of your decency and the fairness of your commentary, Dr Palmer.NickPalmer said:Looking at the Wikipedia overview, it really does look as though the London terrorism produced a 4-point swing from Lab to Con. Obviously it could be a coincidence with so much else going on, but I wonder if the single "Enough is Enough" phrase cut through to a small but siginificant slice of waverers.
David Herdson has clearly had a bad session but we all have those sometimes - take a break for a few days once the election's over, you must have earned it.0 -
Evening all – Blimey, have YouGov changed their weighting, or is this just a coincidence?Scott_P said:0 -
Why does no one give a toss about the non muslim populations feelings? Whenever there is an attack, politicians tell US not to single out the Muslim community as a whole, bang on about Islamaphobia etc, despite there never being any attacks on Muslims by people reacting to Islamic extremism.another_richard said:
I bet the phrase 'community relations' was mentioned somewhere along the line as well.isam said:The narrative of 'they're all just harmless bunglers' was bought by the Police.
How can someone wave the ISIS flag about and not get arrested? What a joke
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/872383495112450048
What would be nice is a senior Muslim saying "I understand what you all must be thinking and I apologise for the actions taken in the name of my religion. Thank you for your amazing tolerance, we aren't all like this" etc. Why should it be on the victims to be understanding?0 -
The 18 year old Glenfiddich is a bit of a disappointment compared to the 15, which is softer and sweeter. It doesn't have a very distinctive character.Andrew said:
Glenfiddy is smooth but boring. Laphroaig kicks you in the nuts but leaves you wanting more.Alistair said:I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
If you're not a fan of peated whiskies, the Laphroaig may well knock you off your feet. I've grown to enjoy it over the years but I would recommend adding just a few drops of water.0 -
Looks like slight herding to me. YouGov made methodology changes as outlined below:
"As this is our final call before the election we made two minor changes to our method. The first is that rather than asking people which party they’d vote for, we showed respondents a list of the people actually standing in their constituency and asked which one they would vote for. Hopefully this will help pick up any tactical vote considerations and remove any issue of people saying they would vote UKIP or Green in seats where UKIP or the Greens are not actually standing.
Secondly we have reallocated those respondents who say don’t know, but who also say they are very likely to vote (voters who my colleague Adam McDonnell described earlier in the campaign as “true undecided”). We assume uncertain voters who say they “don’t know” at this stage won’t actually vote, but those who say they are 8+/10 certain to vote we have reallocated back to the party they voted for in 2015."
They clearly weren't confident about their own predictions, they're quite keen to state they think there'll be an increased majority:
"For now, YouGov’s final call for the 2017 election is for a seven point Conservative lead, leading to an increased Conservative majority in the Commons."
ALSO: Remember that their model is showing Labour's standing increasing over the last few days. So this doesn't sound that accurate to me, showing a steep 3 point drop. I just think they're bricking it. It's probably more accurate now, though.
See URL: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/final-call-poll-tories-seven-points-and-set-increa/0 -
There would be no LD losses in England on those figures , even Brake would hold on !!!rcs1000 said:
If that's the result, the LDs would stand still, as that gives them +2 in Scotland* and -2 in England & Wales.kle4 said:
Well, shows me as wrong.Scott_P said:
Still, exact same difference between the parties as last time, what a waste of time and effort. And LDs up but still likely to lose seats as others up even more.
Everyone always said YouGov knew what they are doing.0 -
and most importantly, he's a Spurs fan.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, he's a nice guy to boot as well.kle4 said:I must say, I do think Keiran has over these podcasts shown himself to be a pretty decent pundit and presenter.
PB found him by accident!
Diamond geezer assured.0 -
A post on a local site:
"A friend of mine who lives here but is registered in Hull had applied for her mum to vote by proxy for her, but her by proxy card never arrived for her mum...is there anything she can do? (I know it's not local but every vote matters and she's super annoyed if she has just lost her vote!!!)"
Any advice?0 -
Very sound advice, if I may say so.foxinsoxuk said:0 -
The guy on DP said 11pmTheScreamingEagles said:
They finished the fieldwork at 9pm, so I'm guessing in the next 90 mins or so.Scrapheap_as_was said:what time survation?
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We appear to be overlooking the most significant and widescale polling, where Jezza is winning with 90% of the vote....on Facebook ;-)0
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So they faff about for the fortnight prior to the election then change their methodology for the final poll?RobinWiggs said:Martin Boon unpicks YG methodology change tonight:
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/872562697333862401
I give up. the cynic in me would suggest it's awfully convenient that their methodology showed a narrower lead around the time the campaign in chaos narrative picked up...0 -
The winners may not deserve to win, but the country will deserve the winners.IanB2 said:The one thing we do know is that, whoever wins, they don't deserve to.
Goodnight all.
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Martin Boon: Looking logically at polling companies left, I think there is one, perhaps two extensions to the current ranges.
Referring to Lab & Con vote shares.0 -
In the podcast I was going to describe Mrs May and the Tory campaign as a bit Spursy, but decided against it.Scrapheap_as_was said:
and most importantly, he's a Spurs fan.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yup, he's a nice guy to boot as well.kle4 said:I must say, I do think Keiran has over these podcasts shown himself to be a pretty decent pundit and presenter.
PB found him by accident!
Diamond geezer assured.0 -
I just bought turnout on spreadex @ 62.75%
Asked for £200/pt, got offered £50/pt.
I'll take that. They've nudged it up a bit since.0 -
Now I know that Liam fox doesn't have many fans on among PBers but he's certainly done some campaigning in the marginals:
https://twitter.com/LiamFox
Is he that active in his government job ?0 -
You don't need the card to be able to vote. If the person is sure the proxy application was made in time, just (ask the mum to) go to the polling station with some ID.NickPalmer said:A post on a local site:
"A friend of mine who lives here but is registered in Hull had applied for her mum to vote by proxy for her, but her by proxy card never arrived for her mum...is there anything she can do? (I know it's not local but every vote matters and she's super annoyed if she has just lost her vote!!!)"
Any advice?0 -
Lagavulin man myself, if you want the Medicinal.kyf_100 said:
The 18 year old Glenfiddich is a bit of a disappointment compared to the 15, which is softer and sweeter. It doesn't have a very distinctive character.Andrew said:
Glenfiddy is smooth but boring. Laphroaig kicks you in the nuts but leaves you wanting more.Alistair said:I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
If you're not a fan of peated whiskies, the Laphroaig may well knock you off your feet. I've grown to enjoy it over the years but I would recommend adding just a few drops of water.0 -
For the first time in years of doing Yougov surveys they asked me how I'd vote... so that explains the sudden change...
On the Google Docs spreadsheet posted earlier, is it read only? I can't see a space for current votes in it either way for tracking purposes.0 -
I think you can apply for an emergency proxy up until 5pm on polling day. Contact returning officer's office first thing.NickPalmer said:A post on a local site:
"A friend of mine who lives here but is registered in Hull had applied for her mum to vote by proxy for her, but her by proxy card never arrived for her mum...is there anything she can do? (I know it's not local but every vote matters and she's super annoyed if she has just lost her vote!!!)"
Any advice?0 -
They are goingnto.lose C&W...
Granted LDs will win Twickenham..0 -
Well said!NickPalmer said:Looking at the Wikipedia overview, it really does look as though the London terrorism produced a 4-point swing from Lab to Con. Obviously it could be a coincidence with so much else going on, but I wonder if the single "Enough is Enough" phrase cut through to a small but siginificant slice of waverers.
David Herdson has clearly had a bad session but we all have those sometimes - take a break for a few days once the election's over, you must have earned it.0 -
No he wontMarkSenior said:
There would be no LD losses in England on those figures , even Brake would hold on !!!rcs1000 said:
If that's the result, the LDs would stand still, as that gives them +2 in Scotland* and -2 in England & Wales.kle4 said:
Well, shows me as wrong.Scott_P said:
Still, exact same difference between the parties as last time, what a waste of time and effort. And LDs up but still likely to lose seats as others up even more.
Everyone always said YouGov knew what they are doing.0 -
Its more that if they arrest everyone who waves ISIS flags etc then they would be arresting people by the thousand.another_richard said:
I bet the phrase 'community relations' was mentioned somewhere along the line as well.isam said:The narrative of 'they're all just harmless bunglers' was bought by the Police.
How can someone wave the ISIS flag about and not get arrested? What a joke
https://twitter.com/thejeremyvine/status/872383495112450048
Quite simply it is very very hard to tell which ones out of those thousands will suddenly spontaneously combust......0 -
en croute with sautéed root vegetables and a nice demiglazekle4 said:
Boiled for me please, it's my first time.FrancisUrquhart said:I am still going to have to vote Tory just in case...The free baby better be tasty, going with the chargrilled option.
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@ShippersUnbound: Detecting growing Tory confidence. Two days ago most were predicting 50-80 majority. Now 80-100.0
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So the yougov poll was herding via changing how they fiddle the numbers. Not overly impressed.0
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Rest up David - seriously well done with your efforts whatever the result!0
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Interesting.Scott_P said:@ShippersUnbound: Detecting growing Tory confidence. Two days ago most were predicting 50-80 majority. Now 80-100.
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That's helpful, thanks - what they've done is similar to part of ICM's tweaks - ICM also (in my view rather contrroversially) override don't knows, though ICM go further and override people who won't say how they voted last time either (by *guessing* that they'll behave like *other* people who've said they didn't know in past elections).Magosh said:Looks like slight herding to me. YouGov made methodology changes as outlined below:
"As this is our final call before the election we made two minor changes to our method. The first is that rather than asking people which party they’d vote for, we showed respondents a list of the people actually standing in their constituency and asked which one they would vote for. Hopefully this will help pick up any tactical vote considerations and remove any issue of people saying they would vote UKIP or Green in seats where UKIP or the Greens are not actually standing.
Secondly we have reallocated those respondents who say don’t know, but who also say they are very likely to vote (voters who my colleague Adam McDonnell described earlier in the campaign as “true undecided”). We assume uncertain voters who say they “don’t know” at this stage won’t actually vote, but those who say they are 8+/10 certain to vote we have reallocated back to the party they voted for in 2015."
They clearly weren't confident about their own predictions, they're quite keen to state they think there'll be an increased majority:
"For now, YouGov’s final call for the 2017 election is for a seven point Conservative lead, leading to an increased Conservative majority in the Commons."
ALSO: Remember that their model is showing Labour's standing increasing over the last few days. So this doesn't sound that accurate to me, showing a steep 3 point drop. I just think they're bricking it. It's probably more accurate now, though.
See URL: https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/final-call-poll-tories-seven-points-and-set-increa/
Do we have a figure for raw "party preferred before turnout adjustment" from any of these?0 -
If the LDs are on 9% in Scotland, that would be almost twice their list vote level from last year.tlg86 said:
Obviously difficult to draw too many conclusions about sub samples, but they don't look right to me.HYUFD said:Final Comres swings by region since 2015
London
Cons 42
Lab 41
LD 11
Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons
Scotland
Cons 27
Lab 16
SNP 45
LD 9
Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf
Argyll & Bute, 6-1. You heard it from me about twenty times.0 -
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