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  • HaroldO
    HaroldO Posts: 1,185
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Hmm odd, it was a very specific post too.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    YouGov numbers at 10pm?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/martynmcl/status/872556578116960256

    That's great!
    Its a shit rag
  • Restharrow
    Restharrow Posts: 233
    glw said:

    Restharrow said:

    glw said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Joining online polling panels would seem one obvious way in for the Russians.

    GCHQ boasts of being able to manipulate online polls, but I assume they mean defeating the basic checks that some voodoo polls use (rate limiting, IP checks and so on), not filling panels with puppets. I wouldn't say it is impossible unless a pollster has some thorough verification, not that I think that's happening here.
    Is there a link to this particular boast?
    UNDERPASS: Change outcome of online polls (previously known as NUBILO).
    https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2014/07/gchq_catalog_of.html

    Thank you.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    TudorRose said:

    surbiton said:

    In Betfair spreads, Labour 150-199 is 2.6 and 200-249 2.64.

    Labour seat numbers dropping.

    Con majority coming in on Betfair, now at 1.18.
    If you believe in kabooms there would be a lot of money to be made when the Labour lead poll is published.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806

    NEW THREAD

  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    I am in touch with my inner Ramone:

    Twenty-twenty-twenty four hours to go,
    I wanna be sedated.....
    Nothing to do, no where to go oh,
    I wanna be sedated

    Just get me to the airport, put me on a plane
    Hurry hurry hurry, before I go insane
    I can't control my fingers, I can't control my brain
    Oh no oh no oh no.....
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
    It did seem his style.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    YouGov bottle it,,,,
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    bigjohnowls said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/martynmcl/status/872556578116960256

    That's great!
    Its a shit rag
    The tweet you moron not the paper!
  • BigIan
    BigIan Posts: 198
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    What, for a bet, like?
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    MarqueeMark said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just had two e mails from CCHQ including one from Boris with lots of material to send out on social media

    It has been non stop from them the last few days - is this the new way of targetting the messages

    But only if it gets sent out. I have had all the same guff and whilst I am very happy to leaflet and door-knock for the Conservative Party, no way in Hell am I going to post that stuff on my social media!
    My FB feed is filled with pro-Labour posts. Some of it fairly ridiculous. There's one LD, and he last Tory thing was a few days ago.

    If May gets a landslide there's going to be some very pi**ed off people.
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just had two e mails from CCHQ including one from Boris with lots of material to send out on social media

    It has been non stop from them the last few days - is this the new way of targetting the messages

    Dunno, but it's probably a good way to lose friendships at the edge of your bubble.
  • Restharrow
    Restharrow Posts: 233
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
    The Russians have hacked his email as well as his PB log-in?
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Restharrow said:

    Floater said:

    2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh

    Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide

    Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"

    Strangely enough, parents of pupils at Ydoethur's school are reporting a similar phenomenon. Are there any in between?
    Wanders off to check facebook post......

    Ok - it leads to this

    http://www.gazette-news.co.uk/news/15331840.REVEALED__Survey_shows_Labour_may_have_won_enough_support_to_overtake_Conservatives_in_our_region/

    Across the region, 34% of people said they are planning to vote Labour later this week, compared to 25% who said that was their planned vote at the start of the election campaign. The proportion of respondents backing the Tories is at 26%, compared to 32% backing the party at the start of the campaign.

    I call bollocks
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Final Comres swings by region since 2015

    NorthEast
    Cons 44
    Lab 41
    LD 9
    Swing 12.5% Labour to Cons

    NorthWest
    Cons 42
    Lab 45
    LD 6
    Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons

    Yorkshire and Humber
    Cons 46
    Lab 41
    LD 7
    Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons

    West Midlands
    Cons 46
    Lab 34
    LD 10
    Swing 1.5% Labour to Cons

    East Midlands
    Cons 51
    Lab 35
    LD 3
    Swing 2% Labour to Cons

    Wales
    Cons 40
    Lab 38
    LD 5
    Swing 6% Labour to Cons

    East
    Cons 51
    Lab 30
    LD 12
    Swing 3% Cons to Labour

    London
    Cons 42
    Lab 41
    LD 11
    Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons

    South East
    Cons 47
    Lab 29
    LD 13
    Swing 7.5% Cons to Labour

    South West
    Cons 49
    Lab 29
    LD 12
    Swing 4.5% Cons to Labour

    Scotland
    Cons 27
    Lab 16
    SNP 45
    LD 9
    Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf



  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    So it's The Herdson Vs JohnO and Mr Jack?
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
    No, he's pissed off. In fact, he's fuming.

    He might be wrong as well but the response on the doorstep this evening was not healthy (from a Con viewpoint). Maybe I was just unlucky with who I spoke to (or who spoke to me) but it's a week since I've done serious canvassing as I've been delivering for most of the interim and the mood was definitely changed.

    Sorry for posting that and then buggering off. Dinner and baby duties.
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    Restharrow said:

    Floater said:

    2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh

    Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide

    Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"

    Strangely enough, parents of pupils at Ydoethur's school are reporting a similar phenomenon. Are there any in between?
    You will withdraw that defamatory remark. I do not swear in front of the children nor do I discuss my political views with them.
  • Restharrow
    Restharrow Posts: 233
    ydoethur said:

    Restharrow said:

    Floater said:

    2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh

    Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide

    Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"

    Strangely enough, parents of pupils at Ydoethur's school are reporting a similar phenomenon. Are there any in between?
    You will withdraw that defamatory remark. I do not swear in front of the children nor do I discuss my political views with them.
    OK. But they would benefit from your political views.
  • nielh
    nielh Posts: 1,307
    Just put my first bet on this election: Conservative 125-149 seats at 16 on Betfair.

    I think the possibility of a conservative landslide, whilst unlikely, is seriously underestimated and these odds are good value.
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    HaroldO said:

    Oh, and if the Tories do win a clear majority I predict riots on friday night. And quite a few of them I'm afraid.

    Me too. McDonnell is on record as calling the rioters 'the best of our movement' and advocating street politics rather than the parliamentary sort, the latter being inefficient and of limited value in his view.

  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    david_herdson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
    No, he's pissed off. In fact, he's fuming.

    He might be wrong as well but the response on the doorstep this evening was not healthy (from a Con viewpoint). Maybe I was just unlucky with who I spoke to (or who spoke to me) but it's a week since I've done serious canvassing as I've been delivering for most of the interim and the mood was definitely changed.

    Sorry for posting that and then buggering off. Dinner and baby duties.
    It does seem that David has taken an uncharacteristic position based on just one evening's canvassing ..... I for one am surprised.
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    Have we had Jack's ARSE yet?
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Bobajob_PB said:

    If it's prediction time:

    BUM (Bobajob's Universal Methodology)

    CON 374
    LAB 198
    LIB 12
    SNP 43
    NIR 18
    PLC 4
    GRN 1

    CON MAJORITY = 98 (I think)

    Nice acronym!
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    In more innocent times.

    https://twitter.com/stephentall/status/872555460930535425
  • Y0kel
    Y0kel Posts: 2,307
    Trumpton

    Former FBI director James Comey has just found a hammer and a nail.
  • ydoethur
    ydoethur Posts: 74,263
    Restharrow said:

    ydoethur said:

    Restharrow said:

    Floater said:

    2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh

    Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide

    Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"

    Strangely enough, parents of pupils at Ydoethur's school are reporting a similar phenomenon. Are there any in between?
    You will withdraw that defamatory remark. I do not swear in front of the children nor do I discuss my political views with them.
    OK. But they would benefit from your political views.
    Who do you think I am, a Corbynista? I deal in facts, not opinions. It is for them to decide for themselves. You have effectively accused me of professional misconduct (and incidentally there is a school in Tamworth whose head of History should be sacked for such professional misconduct throughout the last year by forcing pro-Corbyn propaganda on them) and you have still not apologised. Even if you meant it as a joke it was a seriously unfunny one.
  • Restharrow
    Restharrow Posts: 233
    ydoethur said:

    Restharrow said:

    ydoethur said:

    Restharrow said:

    Floater said:

    2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh

    Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide

    Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"

    Strangely enough, parents of pupils at Ydoethur's school are reporting a similar phenomenon. Are there any in between?
    You will withdraw that defamatory remark. I do not swear in front of the children nor do I discuss my political views with them.
    OK. But they would benefit from your political views.
    Who do you think I am, a Corbynista? I deal in facts, not opinions. It is for them to decide for themselves. You have effectively accused me of professional misconduct (and incidentally there is a school in Tamworth whose head of History should be sacked for such professional misconduct throughout the last year by forcing pro-Corbyn propaganda on them) and you have still not apologised. Even if you meant it as a joke it was a seriously unfunny one.
    I apologise. It was intended as a light-hearted, indirect compliment. Clearly in the wrong place at the wrong time.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Christ on a bike, some poor bastard in Surbiton has had:

    22 Lib Dem
    10 Tory
    2 Labour
    2 Green
    1 Kipper

    Leaflets through their door in the last 10 days.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/carrie_symonds1/status/872553343486488577

    Going for the 'he's clueless' approach rather than 'he's a terrorist(apologist)' approach I see (yes they mention it, but it's one of many points, and the image is about him being a fool, not dangerous).

    Terrible headline though. They can do better.
    Shades of 1997 when CCHQ could not quite decide how to attack Tony Blair: demon eyes or Bambi.
    Should of gone for Bambi in 1997 and demon eyes in 2005.
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    has any exit poll ever been far off the actual result?
This discussion has been closed.

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