If the national polls are anywhere near accurate and Labour are close in Vauxhall, then I think Farron, Clegg, Mulholland and Lamb are toast.
Eh? Vauxhall is a 'Labour' defence. I use the inverted commas because it is the odious Kate Hoey who is the Labour MP there. Let's hope she loses.
I was confused too, but I think the point was if LDs are up massively in Vauxhall but the national polls are right they are making no progress, then it is likely the LDs are doing well in London but poorly elsewhere, meaning other LDs are under threat?
It also could be where the LDs have put in the miles, they could be doing well. I hope Kate Tory Hoey loses.
If Kaboom 1 Was YouGov showing a bigger Con Lead (still on) and Kaboom 2 was Survation showing a small Lab Lead (now cancelled) what does it mean for PB Bedwetters?
If Kaboom 1 Was YouGov showing a bigger Con Lead (still on) and Kaboom 2 was Survation showing a small Lab Lead (now cancelled) what does it mean for PB Bedwetters?
If Kaboom 1 Was YouGov showing a bigger Con Lead (still on) and Kaboom 2 was Survation showing a small Lab Lead (now cancelled) what does it mean for PB Bedwetters?
If the national polls are anywhere near accurate and Labour are close in Vauxhall, then I think Farron, Clegg, Mulholland and Lamb are toast.
Eh? Vauxhall is a 'Labour' defence. I use the inverted commas because it is the odious Kate Hoey who is the Labour MP there. Let's hope she loses.
Sorry, I mean if the Lib Dems are close (i.e. if they are picking up a lot of votes here, they are losing them elsewhere to stay standing still).
There are special circumstances in Vauxhall. It's a deep red, ultra liberal, highly europhile, central London seat. Hoey is a socially conservative arch Labour Leaver who fraternised with Farage. It is has possibly the most incongruous MP of any seat in the whole country.
If the national polls are anywhere near accurate and Labour are close in Vauxhall, then I think Farron, Clegg, Mulholland and Lamb are toast.
Eh? Vauxhall is a 'Labour' defence. I use the inverted commas because it is the odious Kate Hoey who is the Labour MP there. Let's hope she loses.
I was confused too, but I think the point was if LDs are up massively in Vauxhall but the national polls are right they are making no progress, then it is likely the LDs are doing well in London but poorly elsewhere, meaning other LDs are under threat?
It also could be where the LDs have put in the miles, they could be doing well.
A possibility as well. If the polls are right on national share, that would mean they are going even further backwards in many other places in pursuit of those target seats.
If Kaboom 1 Was YouGov showing a bigger Con Lead (still on) and Kaboom 2 was Survation showing a small Lab Lead (now cancelled) what does it mean for PB Bedwetters?
Joining online polling panels would seem one obvious way in for the Russians.
GCHQ boasts of being able to manipulate online polls, but I assume they mean defeating the basic checks that some voodoo polls use (rate limiting, IP checks and so on), not filling panels with puppets. I wouldn't say it is impossible unless a pollster has some thorough verification, not that I think that's happening here.
Going for the 'he's clueless' approach rather than 'he's a terrorist(apologist)' approach I see (yes they mention it, but it's one of many points, and the image is about him being a fool, not dangerous).
Terrible headline though. They can do better.
And you could put together an argument for a fair few of the Sun's list applying equally to Mrs Maybe?
If the national polls are anywhere near accurate and Labour are close in Vauxhall, then I think Farron, Clegg, Mulholland and Lamb are toast.
Eh? Vauxhall is a 'Labour' defence. I use the inverted commas because it is the odious Kate Hoey who is the Labour MP there. Let's hope she loses.
Sorry, I mean if the Lib Dems are close (i.e. if they are picking up a lot of votes here, they are losing them elsewhere to stay standing still).
There are special circumstances in Vauxhall. It's a deep red, ultra liberal, highly europhile, central London seat. Hoey is a socially conservative arch Labour Leaver who fraternised with Farage. It is has possibly the most incongruous MP of any seat in the whole country.
2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh
Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide
Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"
If the national polls are anywhere near accurate and Labour are close in Vauxhall, then I think Farron, Clegg, Mulholland and Lamb are toast.
Eh? Vauxhall is a 'Labour' defence. I use the inverted commas because it is the odious Kate Hoey who is the Labour MP there. Let's hope she loses.
I was confused too, but I think the point was if LDs are up massively in Vauxhall but the national polls are right they are making no progress, then it is likely the LDs are doing well in London but poorly elsewhere, meaning other LDs are under threat?
It also could be where the LDs have put in the miles, they could be doing well.
A possibility as well. If the polls are right on national share, that would mean they are going even further backwards in many other places in pursuit of those target seats.
As I have said many times, a scenario where minor party voters switch towards Corbyn, and one where voters coalesce behind the leading anti-Tory candidate in each seat, look exactly the same in a national VI poll, since the large majority of Tory MPs/targets have Labour challengers.
If the national polls are anywhere near accurate and Labour are close in Vauxhall, then I think Farron, Clegg, Mulholland and Lamb are toast.
And Brake
Not a single one of the LDs is entirely comfortable, though Carmichael is probably closest to being so, hoping the loyalty of locals to the LDs in 2016 holds true for him personally.
If they do have net losses, whoever survived both 2015 and 2017 will enter legend as they try to rebuild.
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
+1 for Paradox. Although City Skylines would appeal to the aspirant mayors in here.
Agreed. I used to play their WW2 games a lot too, before I got a bit too busy. The economics were rubbish but the politics were delightfully detailed - you could simulate what would have appened if the USA went Communit with President Gus Hall, or Britain went pro-Nazi, or other unlikely alternate histories.
Is that hearts of iron? The various versions struggle to get the right balance between complexity/micro-management and over-simplification.
Hearts of Iron IV is a serious time thief
Yes, HOI. I never got past HOI III. The military side was fascinating, but the dumbed-down eonomics seemed a real pity. How does HOI IV change it?
I understood it simplified a lot of the micro-management from III but spoiled the depth of the game in the process. So I didn't buy it. Maybe I should reconsider?
Joining online polling panels would seem one obvious way in for the Russians.
GCHQ boasts of being able to manipulate online polls, but I assume they mean defeating the basic checks that some voodoo polls use (rate limiting, IP checks and so on), not filling panels with puppets. I wouldn't say it is impossible unless a pollster has some thorough verification, not that I think that's happening here.
I've still got no effing idea what's going to happen tomorrow.
For me though, it's really the Alien versus Predator election: Whoever wins... we lose
I know what will happen tomorrow. The news will be eerily quiet while a lot of people vote.
I might wimp out and live pause the BBC at 9:59, then come here to see whether there's bunting out or a smouldering crater in the ground before I press play...
I've still got no effing idea what's going to happen tomorrow.
For me though, it's really the Alien versus Predator election: Whoever wins... we lose
Who would even have predicted that anyone could be saying that (the first bit), back three weeks ago when PB was ramping ever more unlikely Tory gains?
Going for the 'he's clueless' approach rather than 'he's a terrorist(apologist)' approach I see (yes they mention it, but it's one of many points, and the image is about him being a fool, not dangerous).
Terrible headline though. They can do better.
Shades of 1997 when CCHQ could not quite decide how to attack Tony Blair: demon eyes or Bambi.
2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh
Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide
Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"
I know a few pro-Bob switchers, from both other parties. Don't think it will be enough though.
2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh
Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide
Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"
Strangely enough, parents of pupils at Ydoethur's school are reporting a similar phenomenon. Are there any in between?
I've still got no effing idea what's going to happen tomorrow.
For me though, it's really the Alien versus Predator election: Whoever wins... we lose
I know what will happen tomorrow. The news will be eerily quiet while a lot of people vote.
Until 22.00. And then the real fun starts ...
I think I'm going to buy a bottle of Glenmorangie. I'll be my first whisky since I've vaguely restarted drinking. Although I'm afraid it won't go well with popcorn.
Can anyone recommend a whisky that'll go well with salted popcorn and maltesers?
Joining online polling panels would seem one obvious way in for the Russians.
GCHQ boasts of being able to manipulate online polls, but I assume they mean defeating the basic checks that some voodoo polls use (rate limiting, IP checks and so on), not filling panels with puppets. I wouldn't say it is impossible unless a pollster has some thorough verification, not that I think that's happening here.
Is there a link to this particular boast?
UNDERPASS: Change outcome of online polls (previously known as NUBILO).
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
Europa Universalis can be heavy but very rewarding and immersive.
They change the rules every time I learn them!!
Just try the board game that EU cribs many of its ideas from....
I am getting up early tomorrow to vote on my way to work to avoid a post work rush (there was a queue at the locals...never seen one before) and then will not be staying up tomorrow night to check the results. A warm mug of tea and something easy to watch from netflix for me. But I will wake up some time around 5am friday and end up checking the results anyway.
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
Europa Universalis can be heavy but very rewarding and immersive.
They change the rules every time I learn them!!
Just try the board game that EU cribs many of its ideas from....
I've still got no effing idea what's going to happen tomorrow.
For me though, it's really the Alien versus Predator election: Whoever wins... we lose
I know what will happen tomorrow. The news will be eerily quiet while a lot of people vote.
Until 22.00. And then the real fun starts ...
I think I'm going to buy a bottle of Glenmorangie. I'll be my first whisky since I've vaguely restarted drinking. Although I'm afraid it won't go well with popcorn.
Can anyone recommend a whisky that'll go well with salted popcorn and maltesers?
Try one of those medicinal ones from Islay; you won't be able to taste anything else anyway.
Just had two e mails from CCHQ including one from Boris with lots of material to send out on social media
It has been non stop from them the last few days - is this the new way of targetting the messages
But only if it gets sent out. I have had all the same guff and whilst I am very happy to leaflet and door-knock for the Conservative Party, no way in Hell am I going to post that stuff on my social media!
It's a good job I don't trade on polling rumours. Well, not since that accidentally revealed 7 point Yes lead during IndyRef poll caused me to completely ruin my beautiful green position.
2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh
Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide
Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"
That's actually illegal, isn't it? Teachers are allowed to encourage pupils to explore ideas and compare alternative beliefs, but are phohibited from expressing their own political opinions. There was a minor row in Nottingham because a head teacher signed a letter endorsing Labour, and Tories objected: his get-out was that it was entirely outside the school.
Comments
He looks like Top Cat, who was of course a leader of an oppressed group of homeless against the forces of the state, in the form of Constable Dibble.
We will know TMICIPM
and by Friday morning she will have an increased majority
They even sound like Russian spacecraft.
Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide
Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"
For me though, it's really the Alien versus Predator election: Whoever wins... we lose
Or should I say 'David Herdson'?
If they do have net losses, whoever survived both 2015 and 2017 will enter legend as they try to rebuild.
Con 43.58
Lab 33.44
LD 7.52
UKIP 4.58
Tory lead 10.14
The second bit was always self evident.
I'm taking comfort in that.
I think I'm going to buy a bottle of Glenmorangie. I'll be my first whisky since I've vaguely restarted drinking. Although I'm afraid it won't go well with popcorn.
Can anyone recommend a whisky that'll go well with salted popcorn and maltesers?
(I know what the small print says but still)
Damn, that FTPA really was shit!
It has been non stop from them the last few days - is this the new way of targetting the messages
Labour seat numbers dropping.
But I will wake up some time around 5am friday and end up checking the results anyway.
Chiefly 1997, and 2001, but also properly bricking it all the way up to the IndyRef and when Edinburgh came in.