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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general el

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  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Hmm odd, it was a very specific post too.
  • YouGov numbers at 10pm?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    isam said:
    Its a shit rag
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    glw said:

    glw said:

    Joining online polling panels would seem one obvious way in for the Russians.

    GCHQ boasts of being able to manipulate online polls, but I assume they mean defeating the basic checks that some voodoo polls use (rate limiting, IP checks and so on), not filling panels with puppets. I wouldn't say it is impossible unless a pollster has some thorough verification, not that I think that's happening here.
    Is there a link to this particular boast?
    UNDERPASS: Change outcome of online polls (previously known as NUBILO).
    https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2014/07/gchq_catalog_of.html

    Thank you.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TudorRose said:

    surbiton said:

    In Betfair spreads, Labour 150-199 is 2.6 and 200-249 2.64.

    Labour seat numbers dropping.

    Con majority coming in on Betfair, now at 1.18.
    If you believe in kabooms there would be a lot of money to be made when the Labour lead poll is published.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301

    NEW THREAD

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,358
    I am in touch with my inner Ramone:

    Twenty-twenty-twenty four hours to go,
    I wanna be sedated.....
    Nothing to do, no where to go oh,
    I wanna be sedated

    Just get me to the airport, put me on a plane
    Hurry hurry hurry, before I go insane
    I can't control my fingers, I can't control my brain
    Oh no oh no oh no.....
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
    It did seem his style.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    YouGov bottle it,,,,
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The tweet you moron not the paper!
  • BigIanBigIan Posts: 198

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    What, for a bet, like?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,205

    Just had two e mails from CCHQ including one from Boris with lots of material to send out on social media

    It has been non stop from them the last few days - is this the new way of targetting the messages

    But only if it gets sent out. I have had all the same guff and whilst I am very happy to leaflet and door-knock for the Conservative Party, no way in Hell am I going to post that stuff on my social media!
    My FB feed is filled with pro-Labour posts. Some of it fairly ridiculous. There's one LD, and he last Tory thing was a few days ago.

    If May gets a landslide there's going to be some very pi**ed off people.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Just had two e mails from CCHQ including one from Boris with lots of material to send out on social media

    It has been non stop from them the last few days - is this the new way of targetting the messages

    Dunno, but it's probably a good way to lose friendships at the edge of your bubble.
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
    The Russians have hacked his email as well as his PB log-in?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:

    2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh

    Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide

    Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"

    Strangely enough, parents of pupils at Ydoethur's school are reporting a similar phenomenon. Are there any in between?
    Wanders off to check facebook post......

    Ok - it leads to this

    http://www.gazette-news.co.uk/news/15331840.REVEALED__Survey_shows_Labour_may_have_won_enough_support_to_overtake_Conservatives_in_our_region/

    Across the region, 34% of people said they are planning to vote Labour later this week, compared to 25% who said that was their planned vote at the start of the election campaign. The proportion of respondents backing the Tories is at 26%, compared to 32% backing the party at the start of the campaign.

    I call bollocks
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    Final Comres swings by region since 2015

    NorthEast
    Cons 44
    Lab 41
    LD 9
    Swing 12.5% Labour to Cons

    NorthWest
    Cons 42
    Lab 45
    LD 6
    Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons

    Yorkshire and Humber
    Cons 46
    Lab 41
    LD 7
    Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons

    West Midlands
    Cons 46
    Lab 34
    LD 10
    Swing 1.5% Labour to Cons

    East Midlands
    Cons 51
    Lab 35
    LD 3
    Swing 2% Labour to Cons

    Wales
    Cons 40
    Lab 38
    LD 5
    Swing 6% Labour to Cons

    East
    Cons 51
    Lab 30
    LD 12
    Swing 3% Cons to Labour

    London
    Cons 42
    Lab 41
    LD 11
    Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons

    South East
    Cons 47
    Lab 29
    LD 13
    Swing 7.5% Cons to Labour

    South West
    Cons 49
    Lab 29
    LD 12
    Swing 4.5% Cons to Labour

    Scotland
    Cons 27
    Lab 16
    SNP 45
    LD 9
    Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf



  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    So it's The Herdson Vs JohnO and Mr Jack?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
    No, he's pissed off. In fact, he's fuming.

    He might be wrong as well but the response on the doorstep this evening was not healthy (from a Con viewpoint). Maybe I was just unlucky with who I spoke to (or who spoke to me) but it's a week since I've done serious canvassing as I've been delivering for most of the interim and the mood was definitely changed.

    Sorry for posting that and then buggering off. Dinner and baby duties.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Floater said:

    2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh

    Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide

    Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"

    Strangely enough, parents of pupils at Ydoethur's school are reporting a similar phenomenon. Are there any in between?
    You will withdraw that defamatory remark. I do not swear in front of the children nor do I discuss my political views with them.
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh

    Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide

    Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"

    Strangely enough, parents of pupils at Ydoethur's school are reporting a similar phenomenon. Are there any in between?
    You will withdraw that defamatory remark. I do not swear in front of the children nor do I discuss my political views with them.
    OK. But they would benefit from your political views.
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    Just put my first bet on this election: Conservative 125-149 seats at 16 on Betfair.

    I think the possibility of a conservative landslide, whilst unlikely, is seriously underestimated and these odds are good value.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    HaroldO said:

    Oh, and if the Tories do win a clear majority I predict riots on friday night. And quite a few of them I'm afraid.

    Me too. McDonnell is on record as calling the rioters 'the best of our movement' and advocating street politics rather than the parliamentary sort, the latter being inefficient and of limited value in his view.

  • David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
    No, he's pissed off. In fact, he's fuming.

    He might be wrong as well but the response on the doorstep this evening was not healthy (from a Con viewpoint). Maybe I was just unlucky with who I spoke to (or who spoke to me) but it's a week since I've done serious canvassing as I've been delivering for most of the interim and the mood was definitely changed.

    Sorry for posting that and then buggering off. Dinner and baby duties.
    It does seem that David has taken an uncharacteristic position based on just one evening's canvassing ..... I for one am surprised.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Have we had Jack's ARSE yet?

    If it's prediction time:

    BUM (Bobajob's Universal Methodology)

    CON 374
    LAB 198
    LIB 12
    SNP 43
    NIR 18
    PLC 4
    GRN 1

    CON MAJORITY = 98 (I think)

    Nice acronym!
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Trumpton

    Former FBI director James Comey has just found a hammer and a nail.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh

    Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide

    Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"

    Strangely enough, parents of pupils at Ydoethur's school are reporting a similar phenomenon. Are there any in between?
    You will withdraw that defamatory remark. I do not swear in front of the children nor do I discuss my political views with them.
    OK. But they would benefit from your political views.
    Who do you think I am, a Corbynista? I deal in facts, not opinions. It is for them to decide for themselves. You have effectively accused me of professional misconduct (and incidentally there is a school in Tamworth whose head of History should be sacked for such professional misconduct throughout the last year by forcing pro-Corbyn propaganda on them) and you have still not apologised. Even if you meant it as a joke it was a seriously unfunny one.
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Floater said:

    2 amusing anecdotal stories that mean feck all but made me laugh

    Facebook post going around Colchester that we got from a Lib Dem activist / councillor - allegedly Labour are ahead in this region - snigger - If true Jezza on for a landslide

    Teacher at my sons school (female) tells my 14 year old sons class that Corbyn is "utterly crap"

    Strangely enough, parents of pupils at Ydoethur's school are reporting a similar phenomenon. Are there any in between?
    You will withdraw that defamatory remark. I do not swear in front of the children nor do I discuss my political views with them.
    OK. But they would benefit from your political views.
    Who do you think I am, a Corbynista? I deal in facts, not opinions. It is for them to decide for themselves. You have effectively accused me of professional misconduct (and incidentally there is a school in Tamworth whose head of History should be sacked for such professional misconduct throughout the last year by forcing pro-Corbyn propaganda on them) and you have still not apologised. Even if you meant it as a joke it was a seriously unfunny one.
    I apologise. It was intended as a light-hearted, indirect compliment. Clearly in the wrong place at the wrong time.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,893
    Christ on a bike, some poor bastard in Surbiton has had:

    22 Lib Dem
    10 Tory
    2 Labour
    2 Green
    1 Kipper

    Leaflets through their door in the last 10 days.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/carrie_symonds1/status/872553343486488577

    Going for the 'he's clueless' approach rather than 'he's a terrorist(apologist)' approach I see (yes they mention it, but it's one of many points, and the image is about him being a fool, not dangerous).

    Terrible headline though. They can do better.
    Shades of 1997 when CCHQ could not quite decide how to attack Tony Blair: demon eyes or Bambi.
    Should of gone for Bambi in 1997 and demon eyes in 2005.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    has any exit poll ever been far off the actual result?
This discussion has been closed.