I've just had a really nice steak with fries and a pepper sauce followed by a creme brûlée washed down with 3 tasty German beers. Not up to SeanT standards but very enjoyable. Struggling to stay awake now
All this talk of drink has prompted me to pour the last dram from a bottle of Glenlivet 15 yo Frnech Oak Reserve. I've just realised that it has taken me 10 years to drink the bottle.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I don't drink but my dad is opening a bottle of Port to have with some cheese and biscuits.
G&T - A bottle of Bombay, 2 bottles of tonic and a big bag of ice and lemons all ready. It's going to be a long night!
Every election has it's weird anomalies and this is weirder than most. I'm wondering which constituency will throw up the most wildly improbable-seeming Corbynite gain. Perhaps there's somewhere that superficially looks Tory but isn't. Demographic breakdowns might be helpful.
Oxfordshire was the only county in which the Tories made no net gains in the May elections (and still don't have a majority in), and went remain by a decent majority, so would be my starting point for the shires, but of course everywhere has stonking huge majorities, so I reckon that you'd be looking at a central London seat.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
Red wine. I've a packet of Krackawheat and a lump of brie ready too.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
coffee, water and some cheap red bull clone for me.
Your shits will be like rusty drain water on Friday!!!
Oh dear. I shall spend the day alone for the sake of my fellow man.
May was in Cheltenham yesterday and now Solihull today.
Might that suggest Con under threat of several losses to LDs - given there are many, many easier targets.
Cheltenham is a bit 'Remainy', and there's a bit of a Labour vote to squeeze, but it's a bit unlikely that Conservatives would lose it.
IMHO , Cheltenham is the most likely LD gain in the South West followed in order by North Cornwall , Bath , St Ives and Thornbury .
Well the Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain, so if the LDs got their message across there, they would be in with a squeak - but I wouldn't put it stronger than that.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
What's going in Richmond ? If Twickenham's going to the LDs way, you'd think Richmond would be as well.
Originally thought Zack would be back here.
The problem is that Zac is a complete cock, who threw his seat away for no reason, stood as an Independent, and then came crawling back.
I have no love for Sarah Olney. But I simply couldn't vote for Zac.
Interesting. A friend in the locality says there's many more zac posters than a few months ago, but also that the LD's are holding up, and as usual much better at the ground campaign.
May was in Cheltenham yesterday and now Solihull today.
Might that suggest Con under threat of several losses to LDs - given there are many, many easier targets.
Yes. The intell from Andy Cooke, JackW, May's visits and a few tweets this evening have given me pause.
So the PB consensus is going to be wrong again?
We've had weeks of people recommending LD 0-10 seats etc.
It was a late wipe-out last time; perhaps a late wipe-up (a little bit) this time?
Plenty of yellow Tories will hate Corbyn but, knowing May is probably ok, and worried about her ECHR/terrorism/Brexit chat, may (*may*) be voting yellow even though they all know Tim Farron is a prize prat.
Com res poll detail is very interesting and is why May should win tomorrow with 62% worried about how labour would pay for their policies and 55% worried about Corbyn being able to negotiate Brexit and keep us safe
Every election has it's weird anomalies and this is weirder than most. I'm wondering which constituency will throw up the most wildly improbable-seeming Corbynite gain. Perhaps there's somewhere that superficially looks Tory but isn't. Demographic breakdowns might be helpful.
Canterbury. Electorate has increased since December by 10%, seventh biggest increase in the country, and YouGov have it leaning Labour.
Made me chuckle...Ed found his way to greggs for the second time in his life.
I wonder why labour no supporting a proppa socialist in Denis? Where are all the hoards of moamentumers?
One or both of the below: a) They've spent too long looking at their Facebook/Twitter/Tumblr, think Labour is going to win and Bolsover is in the bag anyway b) Won't help him because he supported Leave
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I can help you solve that problem ...
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.
Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
May was in Cheltenham yesterday and now Solihull today.
Might that suggest Con under threat of several losses to LDs - given there are many, many easier targets.
Cheltenham is a bit 'Remainy', and there's a bit of a Labour vote to squeeze, but it's a bit unlikely that Conservatives would lose it.
IMHO , Cheltenham is the most likely LD gain in the South West followed in order by North Cornwall , Bath , St Ives and Thornbury .
Well the Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain, so if the LDs got their message across there, they would be in with a squeak - but I wouldn't put it stronger than that.
If you mean Cotswold constituency Geoffrey Clifton tufton bufton has it for life - apart from my old boss and various middle aged middle class hippies who vot LD in Cirencester it's both leave and tory
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
20 year old Somerset Cider Brandy. Its like calvados but way smoother.
I don't think it will be a huge surprise if Tories do crap in London.
Although as I said before there's only one seat they can lose to Labour — Croydon Central — unless they do really badly and the Barnet constituencies come into play.
Agree. Realistically, there are more Labour seats in London currently vulnerable to the Tories than there are Tory seats vulnerable to Labour and the Lib Dems combined.
Even a further swing to Labour in inner London doesn't necessarily imply that the Conservatives can't nick one or two ultra-tight marginals there, and make net progress in the outer boroughs as well. As well as several largely Ukip-free inner London seats, Ilford North, Enfield North, Eltham and Dagenham & Rainham (as well as LD-held Carshalton & Wallington) all look at least potentially vulnerable.
The overall net swing in terms of London seats could be from Lab to Con, even whilst the overall net swing in terms of London vote share is from Con to Lab. Labour's voter distribution becoming more and more inefficient...
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I can help you solve that problem ...
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.
Every election has it's weird anomalies and this is weirder than most. I'm wondering which constituency will throw up the most wildly improbable-seeming Corbynite gain. Perhaps there's somewhere that superficially looks Tory but isn't. Demographic breakdowns might be helpful.
Canterbury. Electorate has increased since December by 10%, seventh biggest increase in the country, and YouGov have it leaning Labour.
Thanks to Buzzfeed we all now know where the Tories magic money tree from the hedge funds is going-on "dark",sublminal ads on Facebook because they think they have found a loophole in the regs.The Tories must declare these dark arts on election expenditure.It looks like gerry-mandering to me as does Plymouth Sutton and Devonport losing their postal votes in a key marginal.If the Tories cannot win they will cheat,as bad as diving in the penalty area.
I hope all the rubbish that has come through my door from the Labour party is all above board. Letters from people pretending to be doctors and the like. It has all gone in the bin, must of cost them a huge amount of cash and the seat I live within is around about Tory target 100 off Labour and it is likely it voted remain. I am not going on to describe it any further or name it but I was surprised to see the Tories leafleting it today. Labour might get a very low number of seats given this backdrop. Labour are in retreat!
It's a stone's throw from where I live. OK, I'm on the case. Wanstead High St always very busy that time in the morning, so plenty of people will have seen it.
Btw, I came through there lunchtime today, and no sign of anything.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
As normal, when I'm drinking, a bottle of New Zealand Marlborough Bay Sauvignon Blanc
Edit - As soon as I get back from Germany ~ 10 pm
I might try and get hold of a bottle for tomorrow night.
What result would make you happiest to see tomorrow night? It's a close one for me between Vince not winning, Skinner getting turfed out, or David Trennidick somehow losing his seat, oh and of course Zac getting the thumbs down. Alex Salmond losing would also be nice.
If the Lib Dems are going to do well, could they please take Guildford please?
In what must be my silliest bet of the election, I put £10 on them there at 33/1.
Used to be yellow, of course, and the sitting MP is no great shakes. Remainy too.
Seen sillier bets.
I've had four on lib dem wins wells, eastlieigh, Cheltenham and OWWaB. Was wondering about east deven but no knowledge on the ind chances.
Interesting that Lady Gow has written to Eastleigh constituents reminding them how her husband Ian Gow was assassinated by the IRA and urging voters to back Theresa May
What result would make you happiest to see tomorrow night? It's a close one for me between Vince not winning, Skinner getting turfed out, or David Trennidick somehow losing his seat, oh and of course Zac getting the thumbs down. Alex Salmond losing would also be nice.
Skinner. No-one exemplifies lazy complacent take-your-seat-for-granted Labour more than him.
May was in Cheltenham yesterday and now Solihull today.
Might that suggest Con under threat of several losses to LDs - given there are many, many easier targets.
Cheltenham is a bit 'Remainy', and there's a bit of a Labour vote to squeeze, but it's a bit unlikely that Conservatives would lose it.
IMHO , Cheltenham is the most likely LD gain in the South West followed in order by North Cornwall , Bath , St Ives and Thornbury .
Well the Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain, so if the LDs got their message across there, they would be in with a squeak - but I wouldn't put it stronger than that.
If you mean Cotswold constituency Geoffrey Clifton tufton bufton has it for life - apart from my old boss and various middle aged middle class hippies who vot LD in Cirencester it's both leave and tory
No I think Referendum constituencies were different to the GE and without looking it up I can't tell you exactly what 'Cotswolds' covered, but I do remember seeing it in the Remain column amongst the results. It surprised me it was classed as an area, and also the result was perhaps a little surprising.
Still think that the 20% of people who said that they are considering voting tactically could be massively important to the outcome of the election. There is no clear idea where the might help one party more than another (Except against the SNP) but I think that this could lead to quite few unexpected holds and gains of seats. Since this puts a fair bit of doubt in the figures I would the final outcome being quite different to what the models and UNS predict. Currently I am thinking we could see a result something like this:
Tactical voting in E&W more anti Tory than Anti Corbyn but off set by Tory gains in Midlands and the North LD on 13 is basically treading water in E&W and gaining 4 in Scotland.
If Theresa May and Farron are visiting it the day before the election, then it isn't 22/1.
If Solihull is in play then perhaps the Lib Dems could surprise us in a lot of other former Tory/LD marginals. If it's a bad night for the Tories it could be the difference between a majority and falling short.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I've got a bottle of English Whisky I'm planning on getting through.
Have you ever tried Breton whisky? I'm no connoisseur but my Scottish pals reckon it passes muster.
If Theresa May and Farron are visiting it the day before the election, then it isn't 22/1.
If Solihull is in play then perhaps the Lib Dems could surprise us in a lot of other former Tory/LD marginals. If it's a bad night for the Tories it could be the difference between a majority and falling short.
If that's the sort of game in play tomorrow, then I'd expect a dozen or so LD gains from the Tories, perhaps, but also further gains by the Tories from Labour.
You genuinely feel like if you are voting Conservative it's best to keep your head down and not attract attention, which is why I think the shy Tory vote might be even larger this time round than it was in 2015.
It really does feel like if you are under 35 (I'm on the cusp) then you can forget about expressing Conservative views either on social media or in person, unless you're already pretty sure you're in safe company.
Is the widening gap between the parties and the age divide making politics more partisan, do you think? I wouldn't really want friends who are abusive to anyone on social media, and I don't know anyone who is (apart from SeanT, of course, and we don't take him too seriously). But I come from a background which put tolerance above political belief - my Tory parents were relaxed about my Communist views and would pick up the Daily Worker for me; in turn I never hassled them and urged my dad to vote agains me to be true to his beliefs when I first stood for Parliament.
It seems odd that with less party identification than ever there should be more vituperation. But is it really worse than usual?
It's a difficult question to answer. I've always been a bit of a political junkie but the idea of people my own age or younger being interested in politics feels very very new. I think social media has politicised the very young in a way they never were.
It's sort of like being a hardcore fan of some obscure, nerdy sport that, between 2015 and now, miraculously became as popular as football.
Now you have a lot of very loud, very obnoxious people who are more interested in chanting rude songs about the other side than they are in debating the finer points of the game. The Corbynites in my feed are basically like football hooligans - loud, intimidating and they make you afraid of wearing your own team's colours.
For what it's worth, while I'm pretty sure the 18 - 24s break pretty heavily for Corbyn, I think 25 - 35 is far more even. It's just most people with right wing views stay pretty quiet about it.
Prediction time. Based on the age old proven principle of picking numbers at random from my subconscious - which clearly knows a lot more than it is telling my consciousness.
"What do you get if you multiply eight by..."
Oh sorry, wrong reference.
So.
Conservatives 392 (Inc Spkr) Labour 187 Lib Dems 5 SNP 43 NI 18 PC 4 Grn 1
What result would make you happiest to see tomorrow night? It's a close one for me between Vince not winning, Skinner getting turfed out, or David Trennidick somehow losing his seat, oh and of course Zac getting the thumbs down. Alex Salmond losing would also be nice.
Perhaps someone like Chris Bryant being defeated (Unlikely to happen) but you would never guess he was formally a vicar! I remember how odious he was in an interview with Kay Burley once - I was shocked! It is a few years ago, so maybe he has mellowed. I think all parties have a king cnut in them!
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I can help you solve that problem ...
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.
Isn't there a PBer of you acquaint down Bedford way who is partial to a drop of the red vino collapso ?
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I've got a bottle of English Whisky I'm planning on getting through.
Have you ever tried Breton whisky? I'm no connoisseur but my Scottish pals reckon it passes muster.
May was in Cheltenham yesterday and now Solihull today.
Might that suggest Con under threat of several losses to LDs - given there are many, many easier targets.
Cheltenham is a bit 'Remainy', and there's a bit of a Labour vote to squeeze, but it's a bit unlikely that Conservatives would lose it.
IMHO , Cheltenham is the most likely LD gain in the South West followed in order by North Cornwall , Bath , St Ives and Thornbury .
Well the Cotswolds was one of the few non-metropolitan areas to vote Remain, so if the LDs got their message across there, they would be in with a squeak - but I wouldn't put it stronger than that.
There's a big tradition of tactical voting there, and I'd have thought the GCHQ types would not be attracted to Corbyn.
Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
Probably all a false flag to help the Tories win the election
ComRes also sticking to their guns, lining up with ICM in the big Tory win column.
However they seem to be picking up some non-MOE splintering of the Tory vote to 'none of the above'. Could be crucial if they're wrong on the turnout weightings.
If the Lib Dems are going to do well, could they please take Guildford please?
In what must be my silliest bet of the election, I put £10 on them there at 33/1.
Used to be yellow, of course, and the sitting MP is no great shakes. Remainy too.
Seen sillier bets.
I've had four on lib dem wins wells, eastlieigh, Cheltenham and OWWaB. Was wondering about east deven but no knowledge on the ind chances.
Interesting that Lady Gow has written to Eastleigh constituents reminding them how her husband Ian Gow was assassinated by the IRA and urging voters to back Theresa May
As Gow was MP for Eastbourne the effect may not be as potent.
What result would make you happiest to see tomorrow night? It's a close one for me between Vince not winning, Skinner getting turfed out, or David Trennidick somehow losing his seat, oh and of course Zac getting the thumbs down. Alex Salmond losing would also be nice.
IDS, Cable and Clive Lewis all losing would be a delightful tricast
They were pretty confidant about not moving backwards too far in 2015 as well, weren't they?
I saw Farron on the news (in Bath, note) sying that the LDs would be the only opposition party to gain seats. I guess he could be right.
The polls may have disguised that the movement during the campaign has been as much anti-Tory as pro-Corbyn. As I have argued from the beginning, it isn't possible to tell one from the other in the national polls.
If the Lib Dems are going to do well, could they please take Guildford please?
In what must be my silliest bet of the election, I put £10 on them there at 33/1.
Used to be yellow, of course, and the sitting MP is no great shakes. Remainy too.
Seen sillier bets.
I've had four on lib dem wins wells, eastlieigh, Cheltenham and OWWaB. Was wondering about east deven but no knowledge on the ind chances.
Interesting that Lady Gow has written to Eastleigh constituents reminding them how her husband Ian Gow was assassinated by the IRA and urging voters to back Theresa May
As Gow was MP for Eastbourne the effect may not be as potent.
Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
Well the Millwall supporter was by that time probably more concerned about having been stabbed in the chest and stomach.
But there have been several witnesses who saw the shooting including, I believe, the incredibly brave Romanian baker.
If the Lib Dems are going to do well, could they please take Guildford please?
In what must be my silliest bet of the election, I put £10 on them there at 33/1.
Used to be yellow, of course, and the sitting MP is no great shakes. Remainy too.
Seen sillier bets.
I've had four on lib dem wins wells, eastlieigh, Cheltenham and OWWaB. Was wondering about east deven but no knowledge on the ind chances.
Interesting that Lady Gow has written to Eastleigh constituents reminding them how her husband Ian Gow was assassinated by the IRA and urging voters to back Theresa May
As Gow was MP for Eastbourne the effect may not be as potent.
I received one of these letters from Labour, I don't like them. I didn't more than skim read it but I think they are a waste of time, especially when the said Doctor is a complete non-entity. If someone I knew and respected sent a letter (which wasn't computer generated in a handwritten font) I might read it but to me it is a complete waste of time and money.
ComRes also sticking to their guns, lining up with ICM in the big Tory win column.
However they seem to be picking up some non-MOE splintering of the Tory vote to 'none of the above'. Could be crucial if they're wrong on the turnout weightings.
Or it's just noise. We don't know, of course.
At this point, the usual health warning: two years ago, the polls essentially predicted a tie. The Conservatives defeated Labour by 6.5% in terms of vote share, and by a margin in excess of a hundred seats.
To the extent that any of the polls are wrong (and clearly, with a big spread of values, some of them must be quite a long way out,) I believe that they're still more likely to be over-rating Labour and under-rating the Conservatives than the reverse. Another outbreak of the Shy Tory Problem may be coming, this time amongst embarrassed defectors in traditional Labour heartland areas.
I still think the LDs could win 15 seats or thereabouts. They may not lose any, and could pick up 3 or 4 seats from the SNP, 2 or 3 from the Tories, and 1 or 2 from Labour.
What result would make you happiest to see tomorrow night? It's a close one for me between Vince not winning, Skinner getting turfed out, or David Trennidick somehow losing his seat, oh and of course Zac getting the thumbs down. Alex Salmond losing would also be nice.
Some small consultation in the event of increased Tory majority would be waving goodbye to John Woodcock.
Comments
Thought people might like to know that.
In what must be my silliest bet of the election, I put £10 on them there at 33/1.
We've had weeks of people recommending LD 0-10 seats etc.
Seen sillier bets.
Please clarify.
If Theresa May and Farron are visiting it the day before the election, then it isn't 22/1.
Made me chuckle...Ed found his way to greggs for the second time in his life.
I wonder why labour no supporting a proppa socialist in Denis? Where are all the hoards of moamentumers?
This is a betting site.
It's a con safe seat now.
If i'm wrong, i'll purchase a hat and eat it.
https://twitter.com/kthopkins/status/872526376863223808
https://twitter.com/michael_heaver/status/872530166471421953
Plenty of yellow Tories will hate Corbyn but, knowing May is probably ok, and worried about her ECHR/terrorism/Brexit chat, may (*may*) be voting yellow even though they all know Tim Farron is a prize prat.
a) They've spent too long looking at their Facebook/Twitter/Tumblr, think Labour is going to win and Bolsover is in the bag anyway
b) Won't help him because he supported Leave
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
Even a further swing to Labour in inner London doesn't necessarily imply that the Conservatives can't nick one or two ultra-tight marginals there, and make net progress in the outer boroughs as well. As well as several largely Ukip-free inner London seats, Ilford North, Enfield North, Eltham and Dagenham & Rainham (as well as LD-held Carshalton & Wallington) all look at least potentially vulnerable.
The overall net swing in terms of London seats could be from Lab to Con, even whilst the overall net swing in terms of London vote share is from Con to Lab. Labour's voter distribution becoming more and more inefficient...
Btw, I came through there lunchtime today, and no sign of anything.
Mitch McConnel has involved rule 14 and put it on for fast track consideration. This could be all done by July.
Tory
- IDS
- Mad Nad
- Zac
- Afriyie
Lab
- Burgon
- Cat Smith
- Dromey
- Miliband
- Skinner
Lib Dem
- Vince
- Cleggy (££££££££££££ but to Tory so hmm)
- Huppert (pleased if he wins)
SNP
- Robertson
- Eck
- whoever I've got bets on the borders with for the Tories
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/872526048008777730
ComRes also sticking to their guns, lining up with ICM in the big Tory win column.
Maybe the sheep had votes.
Since this puts a fair bit of doubt in the figures I would the final outcome being quite different to what the models and UNS predict.
Currently I am thinking we could see a result something like this:
CON 44% 357 SEATS
LAB 35% 216 SEATS
LD 10% 13 SEATS
UKIP 3% 0 SEATS
GRN 2% 1 SEAT
SNP/PC 5% 43/2 SEATS
OTH 1% 0 SEATS
NI 18 SEATS
Majority of 64
Tactical voting in E&W more anti Tory than Anti Corbyn but off set by Tory gains in Midlands and the North
LD on 13 is basically treading water in E&W and gaining 4 in Scotland.
Midterms could be an utter blood bath.
It's sort of like being a hardcore fan of some obscure, nerdy sport that, between 2015 and now, miraculously became as popular as football.
Now you have a lot of very loud, very obnoxious people who are more interested in chanting rude songs about the other side than they are in debating the finer points of the game. The Corbynites in my feed are basically like football hooligans - loud, intimidating and they make you afraid of wearing your own team's colours.
For what it's worth, while I'm pretty sure the 18 - 24s break pretty heavily for Corbyn, I think 25 - 35 is far more even. It's just most people with right wing views stay pretty quiet about it.
"What do you get if you multiply eight by..."
Oh sorry, wrong reference.
So.
Conservatives 392 (Inc Spkr)
Labour 187
Lib Dems 5
SNP 43
NI 18
PC 4
Grn 1
Majority 134... I think.
CON 44 (NC)
LAB 36 (NC)
LD 7 (NC)
UKIP 5 (NC)
GRN 2 (-1)
More
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 44% (-)
LAB: 36% (-)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)
(via @PanelbaseMD / 02 - 07 Jun
https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/872532434893537280
Not sure that'd be such a big deal - if you're finding 41/40 with a MoE of 3, you're going to swap the leader regularly.
But there have been several witnesses who saw the shooting including, I believe, the incredibly brave Romanian baker.
BUM (Bobajob's Universal Methodology)
CON 374
LAB 198
LIB 12
SNP 43
NIR 18
PLC 4
GRN 1
CON MAJORITY = 98 (I think)
At this point, the usual health warning: two years ago, the polls essentially predicted a tie. The Conservatives defeated Labour by 6.5% in terms of vote share, and by a margin in excess of a hundred seats.
To the extent that any of the polls are wrong (and clearly, with a big spread of values, some of them must be quite a long way out,) I believe that they're still more likely to be over-rating Labour and under-rating the Conservatives than the reverse. Another outbreak of the Shy Tory Problem may be coming, this time amongst embarrassed defectors in traditional Labour heartland areas.
I hate him.
Edit: A word