a) Corbyn might have done even better still, had the rebel MPs knuckled down and respected the vote of their members, rather than spending the first year undermining him at every turn?
b) Owen Smith, Argclu or whoever would have done better, or worse, than campaigning Corbyn?
Okay, so at 8.43 David Herdson posts his abrupt volte face and at 8.44 he posts a reply to a routine question about his earlier prediction, and silence since then. Does that make sense to anybody?
Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
There's video of the killers attacking their last victim before the police arrive and shoot them. I'm not going to post it here, but if you are interested search Tommy Robinson on Twitter for a link.
My heart can't take it. 25 hours and 10 minutes more of this.
This is worse than the EU referendum. The worst case there was more EU bollocks, Corbyn and co. worry me far more than that.
Agreed. I'm staying calm until 10pm tomorrow though. For the first time in ages I'm not taking part in a count, as if I have to freak out after the exit poll, I'd like to be in the comfort of my own home.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I can help you solve that problem ...
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.
Okay, so at 8.43 David Herdson posts his abrupt volte face and at 8.44 he posts a reply to a routine question about his earlier prediction, and silence since then. Does that make sense to anybody?
Hanretty has Ynys Mon as 75% CON gain likelihood (midpoints CON 33, LAB 29, PC 21, UKIP 13). And yet CON is 5/1, 7/1 around the bookies. BF exchange too thin. At least one of them is wrong.
Many of Henretty’s predictions for Wales look odd (e.g., the Pembrokeshire seats -> Labour).
I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.
I think seems more likely than a Labour lead. It does look like we might get sudden herding from the pollsters right at the end of the campaign, not that it means they have got it right of course!
a) Corbyn might have done even better still, had the rebel MPs knuckled down and respected the vote of their members, rather than spending the first year undermining him at every turn?
b) Owen Smith, Argclu or whoever would have done better, or worse, than campaigning Corbyn?
c), we're living in a computer simulation, and two years ago someone fiddled with the randomness generator.
Just one night without Pampers.... you get a nasty rash don't you know if exposed to them for too long and on here it's been weeks and that's without a single poll showing Lab in the lead.
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game. But Alt-Tabbing now and then to check for polls .
Nick are you a fan of Gwent... they've reworked it for a standalone game
Don't know Gwent, tell me more?
I must be misremembering Nick... it's the game within a game from The Witcher. Not that will make any sense at all since I must have you confused with another poster...
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I can help you solve that problem ...
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.
Surely the big picture is of stability in the final week.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.
..which is why any that do, will have a disproportionate result on the news agenda, the night before the election itself.
I don't think they'll make any difference - TV news isn't mentioning polls at all.
I guess a shock poll may lead a tabloid tomorrow but surely they'll just be in full cheerleading / attack mode.
A massive contrast with all the pattern of the last week's polls, which as everyone has said has been all about the narrative of stabilisation of the tory lead, and Labour locked in in an improved but no longer mobile position, is sure to get coverage.
This would have to be a either a Labour lead or a Tory twenty-pointer, though, mind.
Someone posted that Jim Messina reported an unusually high number of don't knows. It could be they've all now jumped in the same direction -- possibly Tory given the anti-Corbyn onslaught on today's tabloid front pages.
Today's 4 polls have had Con leads of 7, 8, 10 and 12. Any poll showing a Labour lead will be well out of line, which is not to say it would be wrong, of course.
I sometimes wonder if it is too easy to treat the "youth vote" as one giant homogeneous, progressive bloc. I've just returned from shopping at my local TESCO in Margate, and the young guy on the till was completely different to the typical Corbynista fan, screeching about tuition fees, food banks, zero hours and wicked Tory cuts. Instead he was profoundly optimistic about the economy, was looking for an apprenticeship in engineering, named several "great local employers" and had just bought his first car. Someone like him is utterly divorced from Corbyn's socialism.
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
a) Corbyn might have done even better still, had the rebel MPs knuckled down and respected the vote of their members, rather than spending the first year undermining him at every turn?
b) Owen Smith, Argclu or whoever would have done better, or worse, than campaigning Corbyn?
They've still been briefing against the campaign, even today. According to Norman Smith on the BBC the right of the party have been the ones telling him about Corbyn still being toxic on the doorstep, even today.
It's a difficult question to answer. I've always been a bit of a political junkie but the idea of people my own age or younger being interested in politics feels very very new. I think social media has politicised the very young in a way they never were.
It's sort of like being a hardcore fan of some obscure, nerdy sport that, between 2015 and now, miraculously became as popular as football.
Now you have a lot of very loud, very obnoxious people who are more interested in chanting rude songs about the other side than they are in debating the finer points of the game. The Corbynites in my feed are basically like football hooligans - loud, intimidating and they make you afraid of wearing your own team's colours.
For what it's worth, while I'm pretty sure the 18 - 24s break pretty heavily for Corbyn, I think 25 - 35 is far more even. It's just most people with right wing views stay pretty quiet about it.
You don't need to hold right wing views to think Corbyn is crap. I'm left of centre but dare not put my criticism of Corbyn on fb to my family, I told them during both leader elections they were robbing decent needy people of representation and hope but to them a socialist labour party was more important than winning. Oddly enough I don't actually they will have knocked on 20 doors between them and went to music festivals at the weekend.
Yes, you're right. I have a few friends on the Blairite side of Labour. The worst vitriol on any Facebook thread I've seen this campaign was when one of them, a staunch activist since our student days, posted his despair in the aftermath of the locals last month. He hasn't posted a word since.
The Corbynites hear nothing but the deafening sound of their own voices and don't think why everyone else has gone silent. They assume that only the old (who they think aren't on social media) vote Tory and that everyone else agrees with them.
I feel intimidated by them. I hate to think how much some of the abuse I see online would scare my gran. It really is a stain on politics, and on decent left wing people such as yourself and my activist friends, who've been active in their local Labour party for years.
Well I'm actually a left leaning lib dem who could vote for a sensible labour party in the right seat but my two brothers always told me I was middle aged middle class and boring. Whilst it hurts me to admit this most Tories I encountered in local government as with other parties understood the concept of public service even if I disagreed with them. The current labour breed have missed this as I think all that local shit is irrelevant. It's a crying shame to see hard working labour mps vilified by momentum types and not recognizing what they actually achieve for their constituents.
Surely the big picture is of stability in the final week.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.
..which is why any that do, will have a disproportionate result on the news agenda, the night before the election itself.
I don't think they'll make any difference - TV news isn't mentioning polls at all.
I guess a shock poll may lead a tabloid tomorrow but surely they'll just be in full cheerleading / attack mode.
A massive contrast with all the pattern of the last week's polls, which as everyone has said has been all about the narrative of stabilisation of the tory lead, and Labour locked in in an improved but no longer mobile position, is sure to get coverage.
This would have to be a either a Labour lead or a Tory twenty-pointer, though, mind.
Someone posted that Jim Messina reported an unusually high number of don't knows. It could be they've all now jumped in the same direction -- possibly Tory given the anti-Corbyn onslaught on today's tabloid front pages.
I acknowledge I clearly do not understand people given the polling has already gone very differently to how I expected, but I really do not understand why the don't knows would suddenly stop saying don't know and go Tory because of that, when to a lesser extent they've been hearing that for weeks.
Today's 4 polls have had Con leads of 7, 8, 10 and 12. Any poll showing a Labour lead will be well out of line, which is not to say it would be wrong, of course.
a) Corbyn might have done even better still, had the rebel MPs knuckled down and respected the vote of their members, rather than spending the first year undermining him at every turn?
b) Owen Smith, Argclu or whoever would have done better, or worse, than campaigning Corbyn?
They've still been briefing against the campaign, even today. According to Norman Smith on the BBC the right of the party have been the ones telling him about Corbyn still being toxic on the doorstep, even today.
Whisper it quietly, but maybe he is, but May sin't really that much better.
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
Surely the big picture is of stability in the final week.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.
..which is why any that do, will have a disproportionate result on the news agenda, the night before the election itself.
I don't think they'll make any difference - TV news isn't mentioning polls at all.
I guess a shock poll may lead a tabloid tomorrow but surely they'll just be in full cheerleading / attack mode.
A massive contrast with all the pattern of the last week's polls, which as everyone has said has been all about the narrative of stabilisation of the tory lead, and Labour locked in in an improved but no longer mobile position, is sure to get coverage.
This would have to be a either a Labour lead or a Tory twenty-pointer, though, mind.
Someone posted that Jim Messina reported an unusually high number of don't knows. It could be they've all now jumped in the same direction -- possibly Tory given the anti-Corbyn onslaught on today's tabloid front pages.
Or just maybe people have had enough of a government that behaves as if it is entitled to another five years of majority power with nothing to offer us except knocking copy about its opposition?
If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?
How much contrition will there be from Tories who campaigned for Brexit and caused Cameron's downfall?
Cameron's downfall wasn't because of Brexit, it was because of how badly he positioned himself. If he'd said that he believed that this was a decision for the people to make and took no part then he could have easily survived.
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
Europa Universalis can be heavy but very rewarding and immersive.
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
+1 for Paradox. Although City Skylines would appeal to the aspirant mayors in here.
If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?
How much contrition will there be from Tories who campaigned for Brexit and caused Cameron's downfall?
Cameron's downfall wasn't because of Brexit, it was because of how badly he positioned himself. If he'd said that he believed that this was a decision for the people to make and took no part then he could have easily survived.
Only in the short term. Surviving to be the man to deliver Brexit would be a poisoned chalice. Remain needed to win, which is why he didn't sit out the campaign.
If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?
How much contrition will there be from Tories who campaigned for Brexit and caused Cameron's downfall?
Cameron's downfall wasn't because of Brexit, it was because of how badly he positioned himself. If he'd said that he believed that this was a decision for the people to make and took no part then he could have easily survived.
Maybe.....doubt he'd be sweating the night before an election against Corbyn however
I thought David Herdson went out canvassing. I did not realise he had been in the pub all evening.
If his account has not been hacked or he is not upto some mischief, this eerily reminds m eof the night before the 1992 election when something was in the air about a last minute swing.
Could the undecideds have plumped more towards Corbyn ?
Surely the big picture is of stability in the final week.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.
..which is why any that do, will have a disproportionate result on the news agenda, the night before the election itself.
I don't think they'll make any difference - TV news isn't mentioning polls at all.
I guess a shock poll may lead a tabloid tomorrow but surely they'll just be in full cheerleading / attack mode.
A massive contrast with all the pattern of the last week's polls, which as everyone has said has been all about the narrative of stabilisation of the tory lead, and Labour locked in in an improved but no longer mobile position, is sure to get coverage.
This would have to be a either a Labour lead or a Tory twenty-pointer, though, mind.
Someone posted that Jim Messina reported an unusually high number of don't knows. It could be they've all now jumped in the same direction -- possibly Tory given the anti-Corbyn onslaught on today's tabloid front pages.
I acknowledge I clearly do not understand people given the polling has already gone very differently to how I expected, but I really do not understand why the don't knows would suddenly stop saying don't know and go Tory because of that, when to a lesser extent they've been hearing that for weeks.
Undecided voters would probably make up their minds today one way or the other simply because the election is tomorrow. If the DKs were predominantly the same persuasion -- anti-Corbyn Labour, or Tory remainers, or homeless Ukippers (because Ukip aren't standing) then they could all have been unduly influenced by very recent news like today's front pages (or sympathy for Diane Abbott in the other direction). Maybe we will have been told by the time I finish typing this.
Still think that the 20% of people who said that they are considering voting tactically could be massively important to the outcome of the election. There is no clear idea where the might help one party more than another (Except against the SNP) but I think that this could lead to quite few unexpected holds and gains of seats. Since this puts a fair bit of doubt in the figures I would the final outcome being quite different to what the models and UNS predict. Currently I am thinking we could see a result something like this:
Tactical voting in E&W more anti Tory than Anti Corbyn but off set by Tory gains in Midlands and the North LD on 13 is basically treading water in E&W and gaining 4 in Scotland.
If the gap is as big as 9% the majority is likely to be significantly greater than 64.
The more the third party vote decays, the more irrelevant tactical voting becomes, because the third parties typically have few voters available to lend in most constituencies, and the surviving third party voters know their candidate hasn't a prayer and will mostly be sticking to their guns because of conviction.
Save for the small handful of seats in which the Lib Dems, Plaid and the Greens are competitive in England and Wales (the dozen they hold, plus perhaps another dozen or so realistic targets,) this is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour now. Scotland, of course, is a bit of a law unto itself nowadays.
I think that the extra 2.5% difference in the CON/LAB from last time is not so huge that it make a big increase in the Tory seats. Indeed when I put into the Election Calculus model with a SNP41C29LAB21LD8 split for Scotland I got this result for the Tories with slightly different numbers for the rest.
Comments
I backed Labour most seats at 7pm on the night, last time, before trading off again to Tory majority a few hours later!
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/872542709868843008
I think we'll have the highest turnout since 1992 - Maybe appraoching 70% ?
a) Corbyn might have done even better still, had the rebel MPs knuckled down and respected the vote of their members, rather than spending the first year undermining him at every turn?
b) Owen Smith, Argclu or whoever would have done better, or worse, than campaigning Corbyn?
Moamentumers....
https://i.imgur.com/PLVFa_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=high
It's be like Vettel's first championship win - never being in the lead, but snatched it in the final race.
See, told you Cameron and Osborne are awesome, you feckers didn't realise how lucky you were to have them in charge for a decade.
Huuuurm.
Another one from the Hung Parliament side of the Great Polling Divide
if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
Maybe Survation shows Labour lead (kaboom 1) and Yougov starts to move to the Tories (Kaboom 2) or vice versa.
I'll need a holiday after this. Possibly a permanent one if Corbyn gets in.
Previous Kantar was 43/33.
CON: 43% (-)
LAB: 38% (+5)
LDEM: 7% (-4)
UKIP: 4% (-)
GRN: 2% (-1)
(via @TNS_UK / 01 - 07 Jun)
Chgs w 30 May
CON 43 (=)
LAB 38 (+5)
LIB 7 (-4)
KIP 4 (=)
GRN 2 (-1)
Theres plenty in middle class areas David don't worry if that was what got you worried
May - Corbyn >= Cameron - Miliband
Big picture is still no change in final 3 days.
If his account has not been hacked or he is not upto some mischief, this eerily reminds m eof the night before the 1992 election when something was in the air about a last minute swing.
Could the undecideds have plumped more towards Corbyn ?
Indeed when I put into the Election Calculus model with a SNP41C29LAB21LD8 split for Scotland I got this result for the Tories with slightly different numbers for the rest.
Of course, conversely, that could work against the Tories further if they try and be too clever and "obstruct" his agenda.