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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general el

SystemSystem Posts: 12,128
edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general election spreadsheet

Regular political betting readers will remember with much affection (and well-upholstered bank accounts) the spreadsheet that AndyJS produced for the EU referendum, setting out the expected   For 2017, he has prepared a constituency by constituency summary in order of their declaration in 2015, with the 2010 and 2015 tallies for each party.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    :)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,362
    edited June 2017
    Ooooooh!

    Edit: tis a wondrous thing! Although hoping Torbay will be earlier than 4.39 this year....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153
    Andy J might just be a PB God :D
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    HurstLlama

    I mean that services will be restricted, as they already are in some localities, on the basis of cost rather than clinical need and best practice.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/31/nhs-rationing-hip-replacement-patients-needlessly-suffering/amp/

    Need a hip replacement? Sorry, you need to be in more pain before you can go in the waiting list.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Nice one @AndyJS

    Can we have an explanation of how to use it please?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Cheers Andy, I've been looking through this the last few hours.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy J might just be a PB God :D

    :+1:
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I think I'll do my usual election night routine of going to bed at 11pm, waking up at 3am, going back to bed at 5.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Good afternoon Conservative Bedwetters and watchers alike.

    Just had the last of the "JackW Contacts Dozen" come through. Pushed out 15 with 12 returns. Looking to post an executive summary by 5:30pm.

    This will also include an updated eve of poll JWCBI
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,897
    edited June 2017
    Freggles said:

    I think I'll do my usual election night routine of going to bed at 11pm, waking up at 3am, going back to bed at 5.

    It'll either be like living through a nightmare or a slightly mediocre wonderful dream.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cheers Andy, I've been looking through this the last few hours.

    I hope you are off the clock. ;)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    Andy J might just be a PB God :D

    He won everyone about a million quid at the ref and didn't even get POTY! :lol:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    Very nice.

    AndyJS also has another spreadsheet showing Labour defences. He mentioned he might be color coding this during the night, so it would be worth keeping it open in another tab

    here it is
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Pulpstar said:

    Freggles said:

    I think I'll do my usual election night routine of going to bed at 11pm, waking up at 3am, going back to bed at 5.

    It'll either be like living through a nightmare or a wonderful dream.
    I feel like there's much more consensus on the result than the last two (2015/2016) so less drama over night.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cheers Andy, I've been looking through this the last few hours.

    I hope you are off the clock. ;)
    I'm meant to be off this week at work but I've been at work all week so far.

    Means I've not been able to campaigning for Aaron.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    I take it that the numbers in for this election are notional at the moment. Either that or this is way more fixed than I thought.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cheers Andy, I've been looking through this the last few hours.

    I hope you are off the clock. ;)
    I'm meant to be off this week at work but I've been at work all week so far.

    Means I've not been able to campaigning for Aaron.
    If we don't win Don Valley you are off the Christmas card list. :p
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    DavidL said:

    I take it that the numbers in for this election are notional at the moment. Either that or this is way more fixed than I thought.

    This is just comparing 2010 to 2015.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

    I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

    One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

    Con 302 (-2)
    Lab 269 (+3)
    SNP 44 (-2)

    It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cheers Andy, I've been looking through this the last few hours.

    I hope you are off the clock. ;)
    I'm meant to be off this week at work but I've been at work all week so far.

    Means I've not been able to campaigning for Aaron.
    If we don't win Don Valley you are off the Christmas card list. :p
    My support has been in kind in helping Aaron become an MP.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    On Topic Thanks Andy looks great.

    Off Topic YG Model

    Cant believe they have reduced Tory seats further


    I really cant see it being right but if they were and just for old times sake

    JICIPM!!!!

    Unfortunately ICM almost certainly right and TMICIPM
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Freggles said:

    Has anyone recorded the output of the YouGov model for, erm, posterity?

    Oh yes, there's a few pollsters screen shoting the YouGov model.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    Barnesian said:

    Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

    I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

    One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

    Con 302 (-2)
    Lab 269 (+3)
    SNP 44 (-2)

    It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

    I really wish they would show the PDFs for their forecasts. The natural assumption is that they are normal, but they could be very wide and flat.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    I take it that the numbers in for this election are notional at the moment. Either that or this is way more fixed than I thought.

    This is just comparing 2010 to 2015.
    Really? So in the first 24 seats to report there was actually a swing from the Tories to Labour? No wonder it took so long for the predictions to catch up with an overall majority.
  • DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 353
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cheers Andy, I've been looking through this the last few hours.

    I hope you are off the clock. ;)
    I'm meant to be off this week at work but I've been at work all week so far.

    Means I've not been able to campaigning for Aaron.
    Me too. I have been out all week and haven't been able to be active in Corby. The PM should have consulted us when she called the GE!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    WillHill moving the SCon over under line from 9.5 to 8.5 is sad panda time for me
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    isam said:

    Nice one @AndyJS

    Can we have an explanation of how to use it please?

    In my experience, stare at it blankly for five minutes before giving up and relying on the running commentary on pb from the smartypants who can use it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    DavidL said:

    I take it that the numbers in for this election are notional at the moment. Either that or this is way more fixed than I thought.

    This is just comparing 2010 to 2015.
    Really? So in the first 24 seats to report there was actually a swing from the Tories to Labour? No wonder it took so long for the predictions to catch up with an overall majority.
    I'm just going by the column labels :p

    Swindon North had a swing to the Tories, but it took a while to undo the swing to Labour seen in Sunderland.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    DavidBrackenbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Cheers Andy, I've been looking through this the last few hours.

    I hope you are off the clock. ;)
    I'm meant to be off this week at work but I've been at work all week so far.

    Means I've not been able to campaigning for Aaron.
    Me too. I have been out all week and haven't been able to be active in Corby. The PM should have consulted us when she called the GE!
    Mrs May could not have picked a worse time to hold this election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    isam said:

    Nice one @AndyJS

    Can we have an explanation of how to use it please?

    In my experience, stare at it blankly for five minutes before giving up and relying on the running commentary on pb from the smartypants who can use it.
    There is no using it, it isn't interactive. It's just showing how the running total of votes in 2015 changed as the night went on.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    edited June 2017
    tlg86 said:

    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?

    These are the kind of stats that the BBC etc. should feature. :p
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    isam said:

    Nice one @AndyJS

    Can we have an explanation of how to use it please?

    In my experience, stare at it blankly for five minutes before giving up and relying on the running commentary on pb from the smartypants who can use it.
    Easier still - wait for the exit poll at 10pm and then let it all roll over you. Bad news (whatever side you're on) and head straight to bed; good news and stay up revelling in it all.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Freggles said:


    HurstLlama

    I mean that services will be restricted, as they already are in some localities, on the basis of cost rather than clinical need and best practice.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/31/nhs-rationing-hip-replacement-patients-needlessly-suffering/amp/

    Need a hip replacement? Sorry, you need to be in more pain before you can go in the waiting list.

    Mr. Freggles, That is what is happening now. Indeed it has been happening for many, many years. It fact it is worse than that, because if one is elderly then stricter rationing comes in.

    What you said (in your original post on previous thread, to which I responded) will happen in the future is actually what is happening now. The NHS already rations on grounds of cost, on grounds of yearly budgets, and on grounds of age.

    What we need is a proper national debate as to how to make the NHS fit for the 21st century. Before that can happen the major parties must stop pretending that a system designed in the late 1940s can be good enough if only we thrown a few more billion pounds at it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,897
    Alistair said:

    WillHill moving the SCon over under line from 9.5 to 8.5 is sad panda time for me

    You could always do a bit of delivery in Edi SW xD
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    edited June 2017
    tlg86 said:

    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?

    IIRC the SNP were ahead of the Tories until 2am in terms of seats.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    isam said:

    Nice one @AndyJS

    Can we have an explanation of how to use it please?

    In my experience, stare at it blankly for five minutes before giving up and relying on the running commentary on pb from the smartypants who can use it.
    There is no using it, it isn't interactive. It's just showing how the running total of votes in 2015 changed as the night went on.
    What do columns D to K mean though? Running change
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    isam said:

    RobD said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    isam said:

    Nice one @AndyJS

    Can we have an explanation of how to use it please?

    In my experience, stare at it blankly for five minutes before giving up and relying on the running commentary on pb from the smartypants who can use it.
    There is no using it, it isn't interactive. It's just showing how the running total of votes in 2015 changed as the night went on.
    What do columns D to K mean though? Running change
    Yeah, running change in % terms. The running change in absolute vote is a bit further to the right.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,412
    Shame that the spreadsheet doesn't include the formulae for the calculated cells (though these are easy to re-enter manually)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Stay classy....
  • llefllef Posts: 300
    new welsh poll out
    Labour: 46% (no change)
    Conservatives: 34% (-1)
    Plaid Cymru: 9% (+1)
    Liberal Democrats: 5% (no change)
    UKIP: 5% (no change)
    Others: 1% (+1)
    There are no big changes since our previous poll; all movements are well within the ‘margin of error’.
  • llefllef Posts: 300
    welsh poll details here
    http://www.itv.com/news/wales/2017-06-07/labour-are-on-course-to-retain-their-dominance-in-wales-according-to-our-latest-poll/
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TFL has already said they'll be cancelled, but one has to wonder at the crassness of issuing them in the first place.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872468993742954500
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    not_on_fire said:

    Shame that the spreadsheet doesn't include the formulae for the calculated cells (though these are easy to re-enter manually)

    You should be able to make a copy of the sheet on the file menu. Probably just an absolute cell reference in a sum.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,678
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?

    IIRC the SNP were ahead of the Tories until 2am in terms of seats.
    No simultaneous local elections in England this time though so the Scottish seats shouldn't be so front-loaded in reporting (though they were still early declarers in the EURef, which was a stand-alone vote, albeit one with a smaller turnout in Scotland than England).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,897
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/872468993742954500

    Wales will be a huge test of Yougov.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/872467537476411392
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TfL have already cancelled them and apologised.

    I'm not sure you can discipline traffic wardens for being w*nkers though?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Oh Lord, they were dishing out parking tickets at the One Love gig in Manchester

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/taxi-driver-confronts-warden-handing-10567402
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    No comment needed, I think.

    Over-zealous traffic wardens put parking tickets on at least six cars trapped inside the police cordon set up after the London Bridge attack, the Sun reports.

    It claims the wardens swooped shortly after the cordon was lifted, giving motorists whose cars had been inaccessible since Saturday night little time to remove their vehicles.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/live/2017/jun/07/london-attacks-new-arrest-as-mi5-prepares-to-review-counter-terrorism-live-updates

    Surely the tickets can be appealed against?

    And the traffic wardens disciplined.
    TFL has already said they'll be cancelled, but one has to wonder at the crassness of issuing them in the first place.
    I believe wardens in parts of London get paid partly based on the number of tickets they issue
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    HurstLlama said:

    Freggles said:


    HurstLlama

    I mean that services will be restricted, as they already are in some localities, on the basis of cost rather than clinical need and best practice.

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/31/nhs-rationing-hip-replacement-patients-needlessly-suffering/amp/

    Need a hip replacement? Sorry, you need to be in more pain before you can go in the waiting list.

    Mr. Freggles, That is what is happening now. Indeed it has been happening for many, many years. It fact it is worse than that, because if one is elderly then stricter rationing comes in.

    What you said (in your original post on previous thread, to which I responded) will happen in the future is actually what is happening now. The NHS already rations on grounds of cost, on grounds of yearly budgets, and on grounds of age.

    What we need is a proper national debate as to how to make the NHS fit for the 21st century. Before that can happen the major parties must stop pretending that a system designed in the late 1940s can be good enough if only we thrown a few more billion pounds at it.
    There was a good piece on this on R5 with someone from the IFS. The Tories current plans increases health spending by 1.2% for the next 6 years in real terms. Labour's plans are to increase it by 2%. But Labour are also committed to increasing NHS salaries by more than 1% a year so who knows who will actually produce more health care at the end of the day?

    What is definite is that current demand with our pretty much universal service is increasing at 4% a year. Neither party can hope to match that because the economy is not and will not grow fast enough to sustain that. So hard choices have to be made. It would be naïve to wish our politicians could be honest about this.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,897
    brokenwheel said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/872467537476411392

    Alot of the Corbyn strongholds have been REALLY REALLY strongholds, like Labour down to their last 50 seat strongholds.

    Brum Ladywood last night, Gateshead. Stuff way more nailed on than Bolsover.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?

    IIRC the SNP were ahead of the Tories until 2am in terms of seats.
    What time on Friday am d'ye think the Scottish Tories will overtake the SNP?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    edited June 2017
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?

    IIRC the SNP were ahead of the Tories until 2am in terms of seats.
    What time on Friday am d'ye think the Scottish Tories will overtake the SNP?
    We're all waiting up for the Panda/SCON crossover. It will be celebrated with the customary chorus of KLAXONs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usfiAsWR4qU
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    #lastminutecorbynsmears. He bludgeons strawberries to death and boils them with sugar.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?

    IIRC the SNP were ahead of the Tories until 2am in terms of seats.
    What time on Friday am d'ye think the Scottish Tories will overtake the SNP?
    After the Glasgow seats declare. That's high noon for the surge.

    If Shettleson can elect a Tory councillor in May then anything is possible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Pulpstar said:

    brokenwheel said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/872467537476411392

    Alot of the Corbyn strongholds have been REALLY REALLY strongholds, like Labour down to their last 50 seat strongholds.

    Brum Ladywood last night, Gateshead. Stuff way more nailed on than Bolsover.
    I wouldn't necessarily take too much notice of where Corbyn is going. He isn't playing quite the same game as May, and certainly doesn't have access to the same level of organisation and data.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usfiAsWR4qU

    A suitable alternative to the chorus of KLAXONs :smiley:
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    Pulpstar said:

    brokenwheel said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/872467537476411392

    Alot of the Corbyn strongholds have been REALLY REALLY strongholds, like Labour down to their last 50 seat strongholds.

    Brum Ladywood last night, Gateshead. Stuff way more nailed on than Bolsover.
    TBF the Ladywood one was just outside the city centre and was reasonably accessible. OTOH, they did absolutely nothing to publicise it to the average man on New Street.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,251
    Barnesian said:

    Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

    I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

    One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

    Con 302 (-2)
    Lab 269 (+3)
    SNP 44 (-2)

    It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

    Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?

    IIRC the SNP were ahead of the Tories until 2am in terms of seats.
    What time on Friday am d'ye think the Scottish Tories will overtake the SNP?
    2022

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    Yes please.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,897
    Rhubarb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    brokenwheel said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/872467537476411392

    Alot of the Corbyn strongholds have been REALLY REALLY strongholds, like Labour down to their last 50 seat strongholds.

    Brum Ladywood last night, Gateshead. Stuff way more nailed on than Bolsover.
    TBF the Ladywood one was just outside the city centre and was reasonably accessible. OTOH, they did absolutely nothing to publicise it to the average man on New Street.
    The average man on New Street is voting Tory, that is why.
  • Fleet_of_WorldsFleet_of_Worlds Posts: 127
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    Is that new one, or the one from yesterday with the same shares?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    The pound seems to be doing OK at present
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    SurveyMonkey? :p
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Fleet_of_Worlds said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    Is that new one, or the one from yesterday with the same shares?
    Last night's poll, Mike's only just tweeted it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?

    IIRC the SNP were ahead of the Tories until 2am in terms of seats.
    What time on Friday am d'ye think the Scottish Tories will overtake the SNP?
    2022

    So before 'The' Rangers win the SPL for the first time then?
  • wills66wills66 Posts: 103
    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    Yes please.
    It's based on rigorous scientific methods compiled through a matrix of core variables including sniffing the air, taking polls into account to the extent I consider appropriate and what regulators call environmental scanning and the rest of us call reading the newspapers etc.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    Yes please.
    Would take that and broadly agree. If Yougov was anywhere near accurate there would be blind panic at Tory HQ right now.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    meanwhile Erdington and Edgbaston have had email calls out to help defend them :/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    SurveyMonkey? :p
    I'm tired, busy, I've got my debut media performance tonight, and it's my girlfriend's birthday tomorrow.

    #Stressed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,897
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    SurveyMonkey? :p
    I'm tired, busy, I've got my debut media performance tonight, and it's my girlfriend's birthday tomorrow.

    #Stressed.
    Which media ?
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    As I mentioned yesterday, going by Andy's list, Darlington could be the first Tory gain of the night. It would symbolic of the realignment of the parties if the first gain comes from the North East.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    SurveyMonkey? :p
    I'm tired, busy, I've got my debut media performance tonight, and it's my girlfriend's birthday tomorrow.

    #Stressed.
    Dare I ask what channel? :D:p
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,321
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    SurveyMonkey? :p
    Has Plato's PollCat reported any figures?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    BannedInParis said:

    meanwhile Erdington and Edgbaston have had email calls out to help defend them :/

    Both Corbyn gains...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    SurveyMonkey? :p
    I'm tired, busy, I've got my debut media performance tonight, and it's my girlfriend's birthday tomorrow.

    #Stressed.
    Which media ?
    http://www.channel4.com/programmes/naked-attraction
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,302
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Monkeysurvey have it Con 42 Lab 38

    SurveyMonkey? :p
    I'm tired, busy, I've got my debut media performance tonight, and it's my girlfriend's birthday tomorrow.

    #Stressed.
    Which media ?
    The world's best political podcast.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    AlastairMeeks said:

    RobD said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The keenly unawaited Meeks prediction:

    Con 380
    Lab 197
    SNP 45
    Lib Dem 6
    Plaid Cymru 2
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
    Northern Ireland 18

    Con maj 110

    Yes please.
    It's based on rigorous scientific methods compiled through a matrix of core variables including sniffing the air, taking polls into account to the extent I consider appropriate and what regulators call environmental scanning and the rest of us call reading the newspapers etc.
    You missed your calling Mr Meeks, you should have been an Estate agent…
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    Depends if he was part of the youth vote that normally turns up.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usfiAsWR4qU

    Labour's new intro for Corbyn.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Norm said:

    Barnesian said:

    Thanks Andy JS. Much appreciated.

    I don't know whether anyone has yet commented on today's YouGov model update.

    One only expects small movements because of the nature of the model and sampling, but for what it's worth, there is a slight movement away from Con and SNP and towards Labour.

    Con 302 (-2)
    Lab 269 (+3)
    SNP 44 (-2)

    It's not the absolute numbers that are of interest but whether YouGov has picked up a late trend back to Labour.

    Perhaps I should be panicking again. A Lab minority gov't with Scot Ref 2 and EU Ref 2 to buy off the SNP and LDs. Stuff of nightmares.
    IndyRef2 is dead in the water if Lab get in.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,828
    Charles said:

    BannedInParis said:

    meanwhile Erdington and Edgbaston have had email calls out to help defend them :/

    Both Corbyn gains...
    The news keeps getting better... :D
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?

    IIRC the SNP were ahead of the Tories until 2am in terms of seats.
    What time on Friday am d'ye think the Scottish Tories will overtake the SNP?
    2022

    So before 'The' Rangers win the SPL for the first time then?
    Difficult for #55 to be the SPL as any fule noes its the SPFL now.

    D- for trolling. Must do better.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    brokenwheel said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/872467537476411392

    Alot of the Corbyn strongholds have been REALLY REALLY strongholds, like Labour down to their last 50 seat strongholds.

    Brum Ladywood last night, Gateshead. Stuff way more nailed on than Bolsover.
    I wouldn't necessarily take too much notice of where Corbyn is going. He isn't playing quite the same game as May, and certainly doesn't have access to the same level of organisation and data.
    I think he is doing a Trump looking for large crowds.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Charles said:

    BannedInParis said:

    meanwhile Erdington and Edgbaston have had email calls out to help defend them :/

    Both Corbyn gains...
    Thought they were both labour seats?
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Charles said:

    BannedInParis said:

    meanwhile Erdington and Edgbaston have had email calls out to help defend them :/

    Both Corbyn gains...
    sorry being dim
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Charles said:

    BannedInParis said:

    meanwhile Erdington and Edgbaston have had email calls out to help defend them :/

    Both Corbyn gains...
    Thought they were both labour seats?
    Think that was the joke...
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    brokenwheel said:

    https://twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/872467537476411392

    Alot of the Corbyn strongholds have been REALLY REALLY strongholds, like Labour down to their last 50 seat strongholds.

    Brum Ladywood last night, Gateshead. Stuff way more nailed on than Bolsover.
    Remember that, early on, Labour candidates did not want to be associated with Corbyn. So he could only go where he was wanted.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TGOHF said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    tlg86 said:

    Thanks AndyJS, very useful.

    Pointless statistic. Labour were ahead of the Tories in total votes in 2015 until 05:43 when Witney declared. I wonder how long they'll be in front this time?

    IIRC the SNP were ahead of the Tories until 2am in terms of seats.
    What time on Friday am d'ye think the Scottish Tories will overtake the SNP?
    2022

    So before 'The' Rangers win the SPL for the first time then?
    Difficult for #55 to be the SPL as any fule noes its the SPFL now.

    D- for trolling. Must do better.
    A+ for biting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    wills66 said:

    Anecdote alert: listening on the train to a lady telling her friend that her son is coming home from holiday today "because he wants to vote". I think youth turnout is going to be much higher than history might suggest.

    Majority < 50 or NOC.

    WillS

    A poll in the Metro this morning said youth turnout will be up to 54% but over 65 turnout up to 79% tomorrow
This discussion has been closed.