Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
Well the Millwall supporter was by that time probably more concerned about having been stabbed in the chest and stomach.
But there have been several witnesses who saw the shooting including, I believe, the incredibly brave Romanian baker.
The baker who speak broken English, and took them on with a bread basket, is awesome. The Home Office should deliver him a British Passport straightaway.
ComRes also sticking to their guns, lining up with ICM in the big Tory win column.
Tightening however. Be interesting to see what YouGov and Survation show.
Damian Lyons said on DP that all the pollsters have broadly the same raw numbers, it is turnout weighting/spiral of shame etc etc that is causing the divergence.
I still think the LDs could win 15 seats or thereabouts. They may not lose any, and could pick up 3 or 4 seats from the SNP, 2 or 3 from the Tories, and 1 or 2 from Labour.
I'm happy I closed off at 13, having sold at 19. £120 not to be sniffed at.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I can help you solve that problem ...
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.
Martin Boon is the boss of ICM Isn't he? In which case I am not sure he would be promoting polls that would make his own company look utterly useless just a few minutes after they have posted a 12 point lead. .
If Theresa May and Farron are visiting it the day before the election, then it isn't 22/1.
If Solihull is in play then perhaps the Lib Dems could surprise us in a lot of other former Tory/LD marginals. If it's a bad night for the Tories it could be the difference between a majority and falling short.
Indeed.
Remember how in 2015 everyone thought Con needed a 10% to 11% lead for a majority.
But they got a majority with a 6.6% lead because of LD wipe-out.
If LD now recover, then it's possible Con will again need a bigger lead for a majority.
OK, Lab vote could be less efficient but if everything else stayed the same it would make bar for Con Maj much higher.
Of course could all be nonsense - if Con is nationally up say 5% on 2015 and LDs are flat then is it really realistic for LD to make many gains from Con?
I still think the LDs could win 15 seats or thereabouts. They may not lose any, and could pick up 3 or 4 seats from the SNP, 2 or 3 from the Tories, and 1 or 2 from Labour.
I'm happy I closed off at 13, having sold at 19. £120 not to be sniffed at.
Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
Well the Millwall supporter was by that time probably more concerned about having been stabbed in the chest and stomach.
But there have been several witnesses who saw the shooting including, I believe, the incredibly brave Romanian baker.
The baker who speak broken English, and took them on with a bread basket, is awesome. The Home Office should deliver him a British Passport straightaway.
If anyone has the stomach for it, Tommy Robinson posted a low quality video of the three terrorists being taken down by the police about an hour ago. It's on Twitter. I won't link to it here.
ComRes also sticking to their guns, lining up with ICM in the big Tory win column.
Tightening however. Be interesting to see what YouGov and Survation show.
Damian Lyons said on DP that all the pollsters have broadly the same raw numbers, it is turnout weighting/spiral of shame etc etc that is causing the divergence.
Almost all the late polls seems to be showing an anti-Tory nudge. Even if MOE, it is clear that last minute Tory scaremongering about terrorism is proving no more successful than their previous weeks of cynical negative campaigning.
You genuinely feel like if you are voting Conservative it's best to keep your head down and not attract attention, which is why I think the shy Tory vote might be even larger this time round than it was in 2015.
It really does feel like if you are under 35 (I'm on the cusp) then you can forget about expressing Conservative views either on social media or in person, unless you're already pretty sure you're in safe company.
Is the widening gap between the parties and the age divide making politics more partisan, do you think? I wouldn't really want friends who are abusive to anyone on social media, and I don't know anyone who is (apart from SeanT, of course, and we don't take him too seriously). But I come from a background which put tolerance above political belief - my Tory parents were relaxed about my Communist views and would pick up the Daily Worker for me; in turn I never hassled them and urged my dad to vote agains me to be true to his beliefs when I first stood for Parliament.
It seems odd that with less party identification than ever there should be more vituperation. But is it really worse than usual?
It's a difficult question to answer. I've always been a bit of a political junkie but the idea of people my own age or younger being interested in politics feels very very new. I think social media has politicised the very young in a way they never were.
It's sort of like being a hardcore fan of some obscure, nerdy sport that, between 2015 and now, miraculously became as popular as football.
Now you have a lot of very loud, very obnoxious people who are more interested in chanting rude songs about the other side than they are in debating the finer points of the game. The Corbynites in my feed are basically like football hooligans - loud, intimidating and they make you afraid of wearing your own team's colours.
For what it's worth, while I'm pretty sure the 18 - 24s break pretty heavily for Corbyn, I think 25 - 35 is far more even. It's just most people with right wing views stay pretty quiet about it.
You don't need to hold right wing views to think Corbyn is crap. I'm left of centre but dare not put my criticism of Corbyn on fb to my family, I told them during both leader elections they were robbing decent needy people of representation and hope but to them a socialist labour party was more important than winning. Oddly enough I don't actually they will have knocked on 20 doors between them and went to music festivals at the weekend.
Con 372 Lab 206 SNP 43 LD 7 Plaid 2 Green 1 Speaker 1 UKIP 0 NI 18 (haven't followed closely but expect something close to 2015)
Con maj 76.
There'll be a very wide range of swings and some Con gains deep into Lab territory while other much more marginal ones are missed and Lab might even gain some back.
If the Tories are gaining 42 seats on 2015 and Labour only losing 26 I don't get where those extra 16 Tory seats will come from?
The SNP. Though there'll be more churn than that. I think Labour will themselves take a few back off the Nats, and the Lib Dems will nibble there too at the edges. Indeed, I could well see more than half the Lib Dem parliamentary party being newbies.
Whatever these surprises are, they're sure to have an impact on the news cycle, just on the eve of polling. Big Tory lead - reduced Tory turnout. Labour in surprising tie, or even lead - means increasing numbers in both the Lab and Tory turnouts.
1 of each ? Computer, media and public-psychological breakdown.
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.
A 20 point Tory lead?
Even if it is adjustments that lead to most of the differences in the polls, they are based on some set of numbers - and those would not have changed so much in a day or two to make a Kaboom reaction, unless it was in one direction.
Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
Milwall was stabbed 7 times himself, and it does seem that the aggressive fightback by the bar staff and customers drove the jihadis out to find softer targets.
I suspect that more will come out in time, but the police are probably trying to keep their methods as quiet as possible.
The Romanian baker and Spanish skateboarder were brave too at driving off the attackers, though the latter seems to have died as a result:
ComRes also sticking to their guns, lining up with ICM in the big Tory win column.
Tightening however. Be interesting to see what YouGov and Survation show.
Damian Lyons said on DP that all the pollsters have broadly the same raw numbers, it is turnout weighting/spiral of shame etc etc that is causing the divergence.
Almost all the late polls seems to be showing an anti-Tory nudge. Even if MOE, it is clear that last minute Tory scaremongering about terrorism is proving no more successful than their previous weeks of cynical negative campaigning.
For me, that David Herdson post is worth reading.
David is a good guy. Sound. He's not given for ramping in either direction.
Still think that the 20% of people who said that they are considering voting tactically could be massively important to the outcome of the election. There is no clear idea where the might help one party more than another (Except against the SNP) but I think that this could lead to quite few unexpected holds and gains of seats. Since this puts a fair bit of doubt in the figures I would the final outcome being quite different to what the models and UNS predict. Currently I am thinking we could see a result something like this:
Tactical voting in E&W more anti Tory than Anti Corbyn but off set by Tory gains in Midlands and the North LD on 13 is basically treading water in E&W and gaining 4 in Scotland.
If the gap is as big as 9% the majority is likely to be significantly greater than 64.
The more the third party vote decays, the more irrelevant tactical voting becomes, because the third parties typically have few voters available to lend in most constituencies, and the surviving third party voters know their candidate hasn't a prayer and will mostly be sticking to their guns because of conviction.
Save for the small handful of seats in which the Lib Dems, Plaid and the Greens are competitive in England and Wales (the dozen they hold, plus perhaps another dozen or so realistic targets,) this is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour now. Scotland, of course, is a bit of a law unto itself nowadays.
It has to be a Labour lead. I can't think what else it could be.
A 20 point Tory lead?
Even if it is adjustments that lead to most of the differences in the polls, they are based on some set of numbers - and those would not have changed so much in a day or two to make a Kaboom reaction, unless it was in one direction.
Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
Milwall was stabbed 7 times himself, and it does seem that the aggressive fightback by the bar staff and customers drove the jihadis out to find softer targets.
I suspect that more will come out in time, but the police are probably are trying to keep their methods as quiet as possible.
Not succeeded - someone has shared the CCTV footage from Stoney St on Facebook - while I will not distribute it here, if anyone wants to I am sure they will find it
And heyo, 6 long years since I last posted (busy with kids) but have been lurking lots recently - glad to see the old place hasn't changed in timbre or robustness of exchanges, even if some of the faces have changed
I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
Decent bottle of red with a couple of friends-(a Green and an ex tory now Lib dem Remoaner)
OR Bottle of whiskey and the contents of a revolver.
I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.
The Green candidate in Leeds C must be hoping that the rain holds off. He has been round doing his usual trick of writing "Vote Green" in chalk all over the pavements.
I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.
How so? It makes no sense that their adjustments would suddenly switch to Tory - nothing that has happened in the last week is really that different to what has gone on before - and if they go all in on it being a Lab lead, and ICM end up calling it spot on, it makes his company look even better than if the others merely suggested a smaller Tory lead than him.
Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.
Well you can't leave it hanging there. What's happened to change your mind?
1.01 a wind up
Or it's not David. Didn't sound like him.
Agreed. Among other things, he's too experienced to make a national projection based on a leafleting session! I did some leaflets this afternoon and talked to two people. I conclude nothing.
Hanretty has Ynys Mon as 75% CON gain likelihood (midpoints CON 33, LAB 29, PC 21, UKIP 13). And yet CON is 5/1, 7/1 around the bookies. BF exchange too thin. At least one of them is wrong.
Just come back from last-minute leafleting. Change of mind on earlier. I think Corbyn is just going to do this. The polls are right. Con 300.
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.
Well you can't leave it hanging there. What's happened to change your mind?
1.01 a wind up
David doesn't do wind ups. Neither does Martin Boon.
That's why I'm worried.
Corbyn will not get above 275. Therefore the polls are good news, as there will not Corbyn government & May will be shoved off the cliffs by Friday afternoon. Best result for the country in my opinion.
Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?
In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?
Well the Millwall supporter was by that time probably more concerned about having been stabbed in the chest and stomach.
But there have been several witnesses who saw the shooting including, I believe, the incredibly brave Romanian baker.
The baker who speak broken English, and took them on with a bread basket, is awesome. The Home Office should deliver him a British Passport straightaway.
If anyone has the stomach for it, Tommy Robinson posted a low quality video of the three terrorists being taken down by the police about an hour ago. It's on Twitter. I won't link to it here.
Don't know what loopy conspiracy theory this is about, but Indy has a named eyewitness, Gabriele Sciotto
Oxfordshire was the only county in which the Tories made no net gains in the May elections (and still don't have a majority in), and went remain by a decent majority, so would be my starting point for the shires, but of course everywhere has stonking huge majorities, so I reckon that you'd be looking at a central London seat.
Oxfordshire very nearly went full-on rainbow coalition, but for one very near miss by the Lib Dems, and another particularly dumb bit of strategy that cost Labour one seat.
The Cotswolds seat is slowly trending away from Geoffrey Tufton-Bufton, and will be a target for the Lib Dems when/if they get back up to 50+ seats, but certainly not yet.
It's a difficult question to answer. I've always been a bit of a political junkie but the idea of people my own age or younger being interested in politics feels very very new. I think social media has politicised the very young in a way they never were.
It's sort of like being a hardcore fan of some obscure, nerdy sport that, between 2015 and now, miraculously became as popular as football.
Now you have a lot of very loud, very obnoxious people who are more interested in chanting rude songs about the other side than they are in debating the finer points of the game. The Corbynites in my feed are basically like football hooligans - loud, intimidating and they make you afraid of wearing your own team's colours.
For what it's worth, while I'm pretty sure the 18 - 24s break pretty heavily for Corbyn, I think 25 - 35 is far more even. It's just most people with right wing views stay pretty quiet about it.
You don't need to hold right wing views to think Corbyn is crap. I'm left of centre but dare not put my criticism of Corbyn on fb to my family, I told them during both leader elections they were robbing decent needy people of representation and hope but to them a socialist labour party was more important than winning. Oddly enough I don't actually they will have knocked on 20 doors between them and went to music festivals at the weekend.
Yes, you're right. I have a few friends on the Blairite side of Labour. The worst vitriol on any Facebook thread I've seen this campaign was when one of them, a staunch activist since our student days, posted his despair in the aftermath of the locals last month. He hasn't posted a word since.
The Corbynites hear nothing but the deafening sound of their own voices and don't think why everyone else has gone silent. They assume that only the old (who they think aren't on social media) vote Tory and that everyone else agrees with them.
I feel intimidated by them. I hate to think how much some of the abuse I see online would scare my gran. It really is a stain on politics, and on decent left wing people such as yourself and my activist friends, who've been active in their local Labour party for years.
I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.
That could be true too.
My heart can't take it. 25 hours and 10 minutes more of this.
I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.
Surely the big picture is of stability in the final week.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.
..which is why any that do, will have a disproportionate result on the news agenda, the night before the election itself.
I don't think they'll make any difference - TV news isn't mentioning polls at all.
I guess a shock poll may lead a tabloid tomorrow but surely they'll just be in full cheerleading / attack mode.
A massive contrast with all the pattern of the last week's polls, which as everyone has said has been all about the narrative of stabilisation of the tory lead, and Labour locked in in an improved but no longer mobile position, is sure to get coverage.
This would have to be a either a Labour lead or a Tory twenty-pointer, though, mind.
Oxfordshire was the only county in which the Tories made no net gains in the May elections (and still don't have a majority in), and went remain by a decent majority, so would be my starting point for the shires, but of course everywhere has stonking huge majorities, so I reckon that you'd be looking at a central London seat.
Oxfordshire very nearly went full-on rainbow coalition, but for one very near miss by the Lib Dems, and another particularly dumb bit of strategy that cost Labour one seat.
The Cotswolds seat is slowly trending away from Geoffrey Tufton-Bufton, and will be a target for the Lib Dems when/if they get back up to 50+ seats, but certainly not yet.
When a sensible Labour leader, or someone like Clegg comes in Oxfordshire will flip relatively quickly away from Con.
Comments
Damian Lyons said on DP that all the pollsters have broadly the same raw numbers, it is turnout weighting/spiral of shame etc etc that is causing the divergence.
Martin Boom or @Timmo
Remember how in 2015 everyone thought Con needed a 10% to 11% lead for a majority.
But they got a majority with a 6.6% lead because of LD wipe-out.
If LD now recover, then it's possible Con will again need a bigger lead for a majority.
OK, Lab vote could be less efficient but if everything else stayed the same it would make bar for Con Maj much higher.
Of course could all be nonsense - if Con is nationally up say 5% on 2015 and LDs are flat then is it really realistic for LD to make many gains from Con?
Conservatives - 379 (44.8%)
Labour - 201 (35.1%)
SNP - 45 (6.9%)
Lib Dems - 5 (9.1%)
Plaid - 1 (0.3%)
Ukip - 0 (2.5%)
Green - 0 (1.5%)
NI - 18 (2.1%)
Speaker - 1 (0.1%)
Others - 0 (0.9%)
Turnout - 68%
Still think we'll take Wakefield due to Creagh's idiocy/principled stand (delete as preferred) over triggering A50.
Why would he promote the polls of a rival company? He's already published his poll.
Maybe it's just Farron/Clegg/Skinner/that Scottish bloke losing.
1 of each ? Computer, media and public-psychological breakdown.
I suspect that more will come out in time, but the police are probably trying to keep their methods as quiet as possible.
The Romanian baker and Spanish skateboarder were brave too at driving off the attackers, though the latter seems to have died as a result:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/romanian-baker-florin-morariu-london-bridge-attack-borough-market-fought-off-terrorists-crate-a7773671.html
It seems 7 out of the 8 victims were overseas visitors, all working here.
David is a good guy. Sound. He's not given for ramping in either direction.
The more the third party vote decays, the more irrelevant tactical voting becomes, because the third parties typically have few voters available to lend in most constituencies, and the surviving third party voters know their candidate hasn't a prayer and will mostly be sticking to their guns because of conviction.
Save for the small handful of seats in which the Lib Dems, Plaid and the Greens are competitive in England and Wales (the dozen they hold, plus perhaps another dozen or so realistic targets,) this is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour now. Scotland, of course, is a bit of a law unto itself nowadays.
Either put up or shut up.
That's why I'm worried.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.
And heyo, 6 long years since I last posted (busy with kids) but have been lurking lots recently - glad to see the old place hasn't changed in timbre or robustness of exchanges, even if some of the faces have changed
Great.
OR
Bottle of whiskey and the contents of a revolver.
I was laying Tories in response to that comment so if its a joke- not amusing!
I guess a shock poll may lead a tabloid tomorrow but surely they'll just be in full cheerleading / attack mode.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/london-terror-attack-image-shows-suspect-shot-by-police-with-canisters-taped-to-body-a7771611.html
The Cotswolds seat is slowly trending away from Geoffrey Tufton-Bufton, and will be a target for the Lib Dems when/if they get back up to 50+ seats, but certainly not yet.
The Corbynites hear nothing but the deafening sound of their own voices and don't think why everyone else has gone silent. They assume that only the old (who they think aren't on social media) vote Tory and that everyone else agrees with them.
I feel intimidated by them. I hate to think how much some of the abuse I see online would scare my gran. It really is a stain on politics, and on decent left wing people such as yourself and my activist friends, who've been active in their local Labour party for years.
My heart can't take it. 25 hours and 10 minutes more of this.
Though not banking on it.
This would have to be a either a Labour lead or a Tory twenty-pointer, though, mind.