Still think that the 20% of people who said that they are considering voting tactically could be massively important to the outcome of the election. There is no clear idea where the might help one party more than another (Except against the SNP) but I think that this could lead to quite few unexpected holds and gains of seats. Since this puts a fair bit of doubt in the figures I would the final outcome being quite different to what the models and UNS predict. Currently I am thinking we could see a result something like this:
Tactical voting in E&W more anti Tory than Anti Corbyn but off set by Tory gains in Midlands and the North LD on 13 is basically treading water in E&W and gaining 4 in Scotland.
If the gap is as big as 9% the majority is likely to be significantly greater than 64.
The more the third party vote decays, the more irrelevant tactical voting becomes, because the third parties typically have few voters available to lend in most constituencies, and the surviving third party voters know their candidate hasn't a prayer and will mostly be sticking to their guns because of conviction.
Save for the small handful of seats in which the Lib Dems, Plaid and the Greens are competitive in England and Wales (the dozen they hold, plus perhaps another dozen or so realistic targets,) this is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour now. Scotland, of course, is a bit of a law unto itself nowadays.
I think that the extra 2.5% difference in the CON/LAB from last time is not so huge that it make a big increase in the Tory seats. Indeed when I put into the Election Calculus model with a SNP41C29LAB21LD8 split for Scotland I got this result for the Tories with slightly different numbers for the rest.
Labour will >25% in Scotland. The Corbyn surge is very evident in the M8 corridor.
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
Europa Universalis can be heavy but very rewarding and immersive.
Based solely on expressed voting intentions, we have used multi-poll data to estimate seat totals for each party, accounting for eleven different constituency ‘types’. Our central estimate is that the Conservatives will win 341 seats (+10), Labour 232 (nc), the SNP 44 (-12), the Liberal Democrats 10 (+2), Plaid Cymru 3 (nc) and Greens 1 (nc). This would mean a formal majority of 32 for Theresa May, only slightly larger than it is now. However, there is a wide margin of error around these seat totals as specific constituency effects (which we cannot reliably detect) can be quite substantial. Furthermore, if the ‘best PM’ or ‘best party to manage the economy’ metrics are more indicative of the final result, a much larger Conservative majority is possibl
Surely the big picture is of stability in the final week.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.
..which is why any that do, will have a disproportionate result on the news agenda, the night before the election itself.
I don't think they'll make any difference - TV news isn't mentioning polls at all.
I guess a shock poll may lead a tabloid tomorrow but surely they'll just be in full cheerleading / attack mode.
A massive contrast with all the pattern of the last week's polls, which as everyone has said has been all about the narrative of stabilisation of the tory lead, and Labour locked in in an improved but no longer mobile position, is sure to get coverage.
This would have to be a either a Labour lead or a Tory twenty-pointer, though, mind.
Someone posted that Jim Messina reported an unusually high number of don't knows. It could be they've all now jumped in the same direction -- possibly Tory given the anti-Corbyn onslaught on today's tabloid front pages.
I acknowledge I clearly do not understand people given the polling has already gone very differently to how I expected, but I really do not understand why the don't knows would suddenly stop saying don't know and go Tory because of that, when to a lesser extent they've been hearing that for weeks.
Undecided voters would probably make up their minds today one way or the other simply because the election is tomorrow. If the DKs were predominantly the same persuasion -- anti-Corbyn Labour, or Tory remainers, or homeless Ukippers (because Ukip aren't standing) then they could all have been unduly influenced by very recent news like today's front pages (or sympathy for Diane Abbott in the other direction). Maybe we will have been told by the time I finish typing this.
Polls consistently show that some 7% of voters (claim to have) made their mind up in the polling station.
I thought David Herdson went out canvassing. I did not realise he had been in the pub all evening.
If his account has not been hacked or he is not upto some mischief, this eerily reminds m eof the night before the 1992 election when something was in the air about a last minute swing.
Could the undecideds have plumped more towards Corbyn ?
But how would David know by leafleting? Perhaps he's caught whatever Abbott's got....
Are you making a pitch for PB - The Movie .... using old stars of the silver screen reanimated in CGI - Starring :
Yul Bryner as Mike Smithson Bet Davis as Peter the Punter Charles Hawtrey as Robert Smithson Sid James as SeanT David Niven as JohnO Sean Connery as JackW
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I can help you solve that problem ...
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.
Waiting for 008 to announce challenge accepted!!!
I'm moving to Los Angeles
Congratulations! Taking over from the Rock for Baywatch 2?
Still if David Herdson is accurate, I'm going to be unbearably smug,
See, told you Cameron and Osborne are awesome, you feckers didn't realise how lucky you were to have them in charge for a decade.
Being smug about mental Corbynite socialism is a luxury afforded only to the rich, i.e. those with enough resources to survive it. A lot of us who aren't so lucky are genuinely terrified by the prospect.
Fortunately, I don't see how the Tories end up doing that badly. Where is Labour meant to find enough votes from to make this a close race?
That said, it would probably be better for my sanity if I took a rest from here for the next 24 hours...
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I can help you solve that problem ...
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.
Waiting for 008 to announce challenge accepted!!!
I'm moving to Los Angeles
Is that a long-term move? Will you still be on PB?
If Corbyn does just do it, with the Tories on 300, he isn't going to be able to do very much, and will be highly vulnerable to ambushes in the HoC.
Of course, conversely, that could work against the Tories further if they try and be too clever and "obstruct" his agenda.
Corbyn and the SNP. Sweet Lord.
Brexit RIP?
Quite the irony if the Tory Leavers got rid of the one man in the last quarter of a century to win them a majority and it screwed up Brexit because they couldn't even beat Corbyn without him.
@iainjwatson: Final Kantar poll Con 43 labour 38 Libdem 7 UKIP4
That's the first final poll to show big movement.
Previous Kantar was 43/33.
Where has the +5 come from?
Lib Dems, SNP, Green
Labour just squeezing the life out of the minor Lefties on that poll.
Or a resumption of tactical voting. Which would look the same in the polls, given that a majority of the challengers to Tory MPs are Labour. From the headline VI we simply cannot tell.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I can help you solve that problem ...
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.
Waiting for 008 to announce challenge accepted!!!
I'm moving to Los Angeles
Is that a long-term move? Will you still be on PB?
Are you making a pitch for PB - The Movie .... using old stars of the silver screen reanimated in CGI - Starring :
Yul Bryner as Mike Smithson Bet Davis as Peter the Punter Charles Hawtrey as Robert Smithson Sid James as SeanT David Niven as JohnO Sean Connery as JackW
is there a message in you choosing the only person alive?
You don't need to hold right wing views to think Corbyn is crap. I'm left of centre but dare not put my criticism of Corbyn on fb to my family, I told them during both leader elections they were robbing decent needy people of representation and hope but to them a socialist labour party was more important than winning. Oddly enough I don't actually they will have knocked on 20 doors between them and went to music festivals at the weekend.
Yes, you're right. I have a few friends on the Blairite side of Labour. The worst vitriol on any Facebook thread I've seen this campaign was when one of them, a staunch activist since our student days, posted his despair in the aftermath of the locals last month. He hasn't posted a word since.
The Corbynites hear nothing but the deafening sound of their own voices and don't think why everyone else has gone silent. They assume that only the old (who they think aren't on social media) vote Tory and that everyone else agrees with them.
I feel intimidated by them. I hate to think how much some of the abuse I see online would scare my gran. It really is a stain on politics, and on decent left wing people such as yourself and my activist friends, who've been active in their local Labour party for years.
Well I'm actually a left leaning lib dem who could vote for a sensible labour party in the right seat but my two brothers always told me I was middle aged middle class and boring. Whilst it hurts me to admit this most Tories I encountered in local government as with other parties understood the concept of public service even if I disagreed with them. The current labour breed have missed this as I think all that local shit is irrelevant. It's a crying shame to see hard working labour mps vilified by momentum types and not recognizing what they actually achieve for their constituents.
Out of interest - and because I know a fair few Blairites but only one Lib Dem, and he only joined last year because of Brexit - could you put a cigarette paper between being a Blairite and a left-leaning Lib Dem right now?
I have suggested to one or two of the Blairite Labour people I know that they might be happier voting Lib Dem but the tribalism runs deep - in retrospect I should have seen that coming rather than predicting vast swathes of centrist Labour voters would turn Lib Dem at this election.
That's a big fall in the Tory lead within one pollster's series. Have any of the pollsters admitted tweaking their weightings or methodology any during that campaign, or are we indeed comparing like for like?
Still if David Herdson is accurate, I'm going to be unbearably smug,
See, told you Cameron and Osborne are awesome, you feckers didn't realise how lucky you were to have them in charge for a decade.
Being smug about mental Corbynite socialism is a luxury afforded only to the rich, i.e. those with enough resources to survive it. A lot of us who aren't so lucky are genuinely terrified by the prospect.
Fortunately, I don't see how the Tories end up doing that badly. Where is Labour meant to find enough votes from to make this a close race?
That said, it would probably be better for my sanity if I took a rest from here for the next 24 hours...
Well I'm wealthy enough to cope, but at least you know how I feel about Brexit.
You don't need to hold right wing views to think Corbyn is crap. I'm left of centre but dare not put my criticism of Corbyn on fb to my family, I told them during both leader elections they were robbing decent needy people of representation and hope but to them a socialist labour party was more important than winning. Oddly enough I don't actually they will have knocked on 20 doors between them and went to music festivals at the weekend.
Yes, you're right. I have a few friends on the Blairite side of Labour. The worst vitriol on any Facebook thread I've seen this campaign was when one of them, a staunch activist since our student days, posted his despair in the aftermath of the locals last month. He hasn't posted a word since.
The Corbynites hear nothing but the deafening sound of their own voices and don't think why everyone else has gone silent. They assume that only the old (who they think aren't on social media) vote Tory and that everyone else agrees with them.
I feel intimidated by them. I hate to think how much some of the abuse I see online would scare my gran. It really is a stain on politics, and on decent left wing people such as yourself and my activist friends, who've been active in their local Labour party for years.
Well I'm actually a left leaning lib dem who could vote for a sensible labour party in the right seat but my two brothers always told me I was middle aged middle class and boring. Whilst it hurts me to admit this most Tories I encountered in local government as with other parties understood the concept of public service even if I disagreed with them. The current labour breed have missed this as I think all that local shit is irrelevant. It's a crying shame to see hard working labour mps vilified by momentum types and not recognizing what they actually achieve for their constituents.
Out of interest - and because I know a fair few Blairites but only one Lib Dem, and he only joined last year because of Brexit - could you put a cigarette paper between being a Blairite and a left-leaning Lib Dem right now?
I have suggested to one or two of the Blairite Labour people I know that they might be happier voting Lib Dem but the tribalism runs deep - in retrospect I should have seen that coming rather than predicting vast swathes of centrist Labour voters would turn Lib Dem at this election.
Centralisation, control and target-setting versus decentralisation and localism is the principle philosophical difference.
@iainjwatson: Final Kantar poll Con 43 labour 38 Libdem 7 UKIP4
That's the first final poll to show big movement.
Previous Kantar was 43/33.
Where has the +5 come from?
Lib Dems, SNP, Green
Labour just squeezing the life out of the minor Lefties on that poll.
Or a resumption of tactical voting. Which would look the same in the polls, given that a majority of the challengers to Tory MPs are Labour. From the headline VI we simply cannot tell.
Indeed. Could actually work out better for the Libs if so.
"Kaboom" from a pollster who has just given a final poll with a Conservative lead of 12 is unlikely to be uncongenial to Conservatives.
Look, I know you're a lawyer but can you cut out the double negatives please.
If it's a Yougov Lab lead or major shift to Lab, which turns out be right, then ICM would be exposed to the twin charges that they suck like a Dyson at their core competence and that their CEO (or whatever he is) is an infantile twat. The more likely theory is a major shift which suggests ICM right all along.
I've decided that this will be the last election that I will take seriously. They used to be fun but now they are cruel and unusual punishment. I blame Mike Smithson.
I was beginning to wonder the same thing but now I know; it's the Herdson cliffhanger.... has he been abducted by Corbynistas, were his leaflets poisoned, all will be revealed in the next exciting episode of PBTories Buy Pampers!
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
+1 for Paradox. Although City Skylines would appeal to the aspirant mayors in here.
Agreed. I used to play their WW2 games a lot too, before I got a bit too busy. The economics were rubbish but the politics were delightfully detailed - you could simulate what would have appened if the USA went Communit with President Gus Hall, or Britain went pro-Nazi, or other unlikely alternate histories.
Are you making a pitch for PB - The Movie .... using old stars of the silver screen reanimated in CGI - Starring :
Yul Bryner as Mike Smithson Bet Davis as Peter the Punter Charles Hawtrey as Robert Smithson Sid James as SeanT David Niven as JohnO Sean Connery as JackW
is there a message in you choosing the only person alive?
I always imagined that SeanT based his persona on Oliver Reed.
Based solely on expressed voting intentions, we have used multi-poll data to estimate seat totals for each party, accounting for eleven different constituency ‘types’. Our central estimate is that the Conservatives will win 341 seats (+10), Labour 232 (nc), the SNP 44 (-12), the Liberal Democrats 10 (+2), Plaid Cymru 3 (nc) and Greens 1 (nc). This would mean a formal majority of 32 for Theresa May, only slightly larger than it is now. However, there is a wide margin of error around these seat totals as specific constituency effects (which we cannot reliably detect) can be quite substantial. Furthermore, if the ‘best PM’ or ‘best party to manage the economy’ metrics are more indicative of the final result, a much larger Conservative majority is possibl
"Furthermore, if the ‘best PM’ or ‘best party to manage the economy’ metrics are more indicative of the final result, a much larger Conservative majority is possible."
"Kaboom" from a pollster who has just given a final poll with a Conservative lead of 12 is unlikely to be uncongenial to Conservatives.
Look, I know you're a lawyer but can you cut out the double negatives please.
If it's a Yougov Lab lead or major shift to Lab, which turns out be right, then ICM would be exposed to the twin charges that they suck like a Dyson at their core competence and that their CEO (or whatever he is) is an infantile twat. The more likely theory is a major shift which suggests ICM right all along.
Perhaps he's like David Miliband - grinning from ear to ear though he knew hos brother had beaten him.
I never said she will outlast Thatcher but she could certainly last until 2025
Trust me us Party members will never allow Mrs May ever to fight another election. By a long long distance quite the worst campaign our lot have ever run in my lifetime and believe me I have seen some!
I was beginning to wonder the same thing but now I know; it's the Herdson cliffhanger.... has he been abducted by Corbynistas, were his leaflets poisoned, all will be revealed in the next exciting episode of PBTories Buy Pampers!
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
+1 for Paradox. Although City Skylines would appeal to the aspirant mayors in here.
Agreed. I used to play their WW2 games a lot too, before I got a bit too busy. The economics were rubbish but the politics were delightfully detailed - you could simulate what would have appened if the USA went Communit with President Gus Hall, or Britain went pro-Nazi, or other unlikely alternate histories.
Is that hearts of iron? The various versions struggle to get the right balance between complexity/micro-management and over-simplification.
I was beginning to wonder the same thing but now I know; it's the Herdson cliffhanger.... has he been abducted by Corbynistas, were his leaflets poisoned, all will be revealed in the next exciting episode of PBTories Buy Pampers!
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
+1 for Paradox. Although City Skylines would appeal to the aspirant mayors in here.
Agreed. I used to play their WW2 games a lot too, before I got a bit too busy. The economics were rubbish but the politics were delightfully detailed - you could simulate what would have appened if the USA went Communit with President Gus Hall, or Britain went pro-Nazi, or other unlikely alternate histories.
Something to cheer up the Corbynistas come Friday? They can live out their dreams there.
(I played Democracy 3 once, trying to be as populist and sneakily set up a police state, it didn't work out so well - the economy completely crashed, crime actually skyrocketed and I was assassinated about 6 months into office).
"Kaboom" from a pollster who has just given a final poll with a Conservative lead of 12 is unlikely to be uncongenial to Conservatives.
Look, I know you're a lawyer but can you cut out the double negatives please.
If it's a Yougov Lab lead or major shift to Lab, which turns out be right, then ICM would be exposed to the twin charges that they suck like a Dyson at their core competence and that their CEO (or whatever he is) is an infantile twat. The more likely theory is a major shift which suggests ICM right all along.
I presume Yougov will have a huge sample tonight. 5000, 10000 ? I am not talking about theirmodel.
I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment because I have my doubts based on the IP address used.
If it's someone else and they also post on here - the culprit deserves permanent banishment to conhome and to spend the rest of eternity wearing richard burgon's soiled underwear on their head.
I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
You'd take Osborne back right now in heartbeat wouldn't you?
If it's between Corbyn and Osborne, I'd lick his toes and beg for forgiveness.
I was always a Bullingdon boys fan, but they came through at the wrong time for their own images. Two posh boys cutting the state was always going to look bad, if they had just won an election a few years later I think they would have been able to win a full majority the first time around.
You don't need to hold right wing views to think Corbyn is crap. I'm left of centre but dare not put my criticism of Corbyn on fb to my family, I told them during both leader elections they were robbing decent needy people of representation and hope but to them a socialist labour party was more important than winning. Oddly enough I don't actually they will have knocked on 20 doors between them and went to music festivals at the weekend.
Yes, you're right. I have a few friends on the Blairite side of Labour. The worst vitriol on any Facebook thread I've seen this campaign was when one of them, a staunch activist since our student days, posted his despair in the aftermath of the locals last month. He hasn't posted a word since
I feel intimidated by them. I hate to think how much some of the abuse I see online would scare my gran. It really is a stain on politics, and on decent left wing people such as yourself and my activist friends, who've been active in their local Labour party for years.
Well I'm actually a left leaning lib dem who could vote for a sensible labour party in the right seat but my two brothers always told me I was middle aged middle class and boring. Whilst it hurts me to admit this most Tories I encountered in local government as with other parties understood the concept of public service even if I disagreed with them. The current labour breed have missed this as I think all that local shit is irrelevant. It's a crying shame to see hard working labour mps vilified by momentum types and not recognizing what they actually achieve for their constituents.
Out of interest - and because I know a fair few Blairites but only one Lib Dem, and he only joined last year because of Brexit - could you put a cigarette paper between being a Blairite and a left-leaning Lib Dem right now?
I have suggested to one or two of the Blairite Labour people I know that they might be happier voting Lib Dem but the tribalism runs deep - in retrospect I should have seen that coming rather than predicting vast swathes of centrist Labour voters would turn Lib Dem at this election.
Centralisation, control and target-setting versus decentralisation and localism is the principle philosophical difference.
I would agree with that, but it is to a degree why Corbyn apppeals to Lib Dems. He also believes in local accountability. At the heart of his criticisms of anti terrorist and police powers historically is the lack of democratic and judicial accountability. He sees how such excessive powers can become instruments of state oppression.
When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
+1 for Paradox. Although City Skylines would appeal to the aspirant mayors in here.
Agreed. I used to play their WW2 games a lot too, before I got a bit too busy. The economics were rubbish but the politics were delightfully detailed - you could simulate what would have appened if the USA went Communit with President Gus Hall, or Britain went pro-Nazi, or other unlikely alternate histories.
Is that hearts of iron? The various versions struggle to get the right balance between complexity/micro-management and over-simplification.
Based solely on expressed voting intentions, we have used multi-poll data to estimate seat totals for each party, accounting for eleven different constituency ‘types’. Our central estimate is that the Conservatives will win 341 seats (+10), Labour 232 (nc), the SNP 44 (-12), the Liberal Democrats 10 (+2), Plaid Cymru 3 (nc) and Greens 1 (nc). This would mean a formal majority of 32 for Theresa May, only slightly larger than it is now. However, there is a wide margin of error around these seat totals as specific constituency effects (which we cannot reliably detect) can be quite substantial. Furthermore, if the ‘best PM’ or ‘best party to manage the economy’ metrics are more indicative of the final result, a much larger Conservative majority is possibl
"Furthermore, if the ‘best PM’ or ‘best party to manage the economy’ metrics are more indicative of the final result, a much larger Conservative majority is possible."
I just want to know why Kantar spent half an hour in my living room four weeks ago asking me which type of olive oil I buy, and whether I would consider a new type of blu tack that doesn't mark the walls, but never asked how I would be voting?
Comments
So six polls - leads of 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 12
http://uk.kantar.com/ge2017/2017/conservatives-heading-for-election-win/
Yul Bryner as Mike Smithson
Bet Davis as Peter the Punter
Charles Hawtrey as Robert Smithson
Sid James as SeanT
David Niven as JohnO
Sean Connery as JackW
Fortunately, I don't see how the Tories end up doing that badly. Where is Labour meant to find enough votes from to make this a close race?
That said, it would probably be better for my sanity if I took a rest from here for the next 24 hours...
Can someone please tell me? Help me?
Scotland finally given her freedom to be a modern European state.
May gone by Friday.
Soft Brexit.
Hard left madness restricted by Liberals and Labour moderates.
Won't happen.
Tory majority of 98.
I have suggested to one or two of the Blairite Labour people I know that they might be happier voting Lib Dem but the tribalism runs deep - in retrospect I should have seen that coming rather than predicting vast swathes of centrist Labour voters would turn Lib Dem at this election.
That's a big fall in the Tory lead within one pollster's series. Have any of the pollsters admitted tweaking their weightings or methodology any during that campaign, or are we indeed comparing like for like?
Come on YouGov and Survation give us what you've got! We're ready!
Especially knowing how polls have been during this GE campaign.
I never said she will outlast Thatcher but she could certainly last until 2025
Trust me us Party members will never allow Mrs May ever to fight another election. By a long long distance quite the worst campaign our lot have ever run in my lifetime and believe me I have seen some!
Tim Farron
Vince Cable
Zac Goldsmith
David Tredinnick
Claire Louise-Leyland
Dennis Skinner
That eight year old SNP MP lady
Alex Salmond
Caroline Lucas
They only have two states of mind, Tories, hubristic complacency or hysterical panic.
Thanks TSE.
(I played Democracy 3 once, trying to be as populist and sneakily set up a police state, it didn't work out so well - the economy completely crashed, crime actually skyrocketed and I was assassinated about 6 months into office).
In their 25th-30th May poll 17% of respondents had voted by post.
Then I realised.
I'm quoting Psycho. Literally a quote about a murdered.