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edited June 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Election eve special

On a special eve of election podcast Keiran is joined by Politicalbetting.com Editor Mike Smithson and Deputy Habib Butt (TSE) to review the campaign, polls, seats to watch tomorrow night and to make some predictions.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    First, like Labour!
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    I was first! :angry:
  • midwinter
    midwinter Posts: 1,112
    edited June 2017
    Second like Lab in Vauxhall

    Ok 3rd like the Lib Dems
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    edited June 2017
    Fourth like the heroic Greens
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Where's the podcast link?
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Can I just say, I don't know why the Tories on here are worried. Their worst poll in the whole campaign has had them on 40%. ICM have them comfortably ahead. It's just a question of how badly distributed Labour's votes are and therefore how big the Tory majority is.
  • bookseller
    bookseller Posts: 508
    6th like UKIP!
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Kantar poll still isn't on wikipedia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017 ) Any others we're missing from there?
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Does anyone know what Boon is on about?
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/872558807301455872
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    edited June 2017
    It's 10pm, where's my Kaboom?

    Edit: oh there it is.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    PHEW.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/872558807301455872

    The rumour was true. WOW.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    This time tomorrow we will know if Boris is going to be the next PM...
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/872558807301455872

    Chickens!
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Knowing posters real names ruins the mystery for me!
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited June 2017
    tlg86 said:

    Can I just say, I don't know why the Tories on here are worried. Their worst poll in the whole campaign has had them on 40%. ICM have them comfortably ahead. It's just a question of how badly distributed Labour's votes are and therefore how big the Tory majority is.

    I think there was one with them on 39.

    It's the crapness of the campaign, and Labour recovery, combined with the fear that this time things really could be different, and trying not to get overexcited by believing the most positive polls, that things really could be that good for them.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    Chameleon said:

    First, like Labour!

    Labour won't be first...
    tlg86 said:

    I was first! :angry:

    You weren't first either....
    midwinter said:

    Second like Lab in Vauxhall

    Nor you second...
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Did I ever mentioned how much I like Yougov?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Still worries me what David Herdson said, though.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    Tories better hope there aren't too many mobility scooter malfunctions tomorrow!
  • RobinWiggs
    RobinWiggs Posts: 621
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Was that Kaboom2?

    Is he tied up somewhere guarded by big chaps with Russian accents?
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/872558807301455872

    This better not be the kaboom.
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/872558807301455872

    LibDems up? That's mildly surprising.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    YouGov will now be the new PBTory Gold Standard :lol:
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    That's a huge jump for the Lib Dems from YouGov.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    YG bottles it
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Told you Boon wouldn't be gloating over a poll going the other way! Wish I'd been wrong, but hey.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @michaelsavage: Tonight's polls. Take your pick...

    ICM 12 CON lead
    ComRes 10
    Panelbase 8
    Opinium 7
    YouGov 7
    TMS 5
    Kantar 5
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Casino_Royale said:

    Still worries me what David Herdson said, though.

    Maybe he got wind of the 3% Lab lead false rumour?
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/872558807301455872

    Bit of a regression to the mean for YouGov? And no net Tory/Labour swing at all!
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Martin Boon had two Kabooms. We know one. Not the other one.

    David Herdson has bedwetted. I am worried.

    I need answers.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    If the Tories only win by 7, will still be the crappiest of crappiest campaigns by the Tories.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    bigjohnowls said:

    YG bottles it

    snap = albeit on other thread!
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    FPT

    Wanders off to check facebook post......

    Ok - it leads to this

    http://www.gazette-news.co.uk/news/15331840.REVEALED__Survey_shows_Labour_may_have_won_enough_support_to_overtake_Conservatives_in_our_region/

    Across the region, 34% of people said they are planning to vote Labour later this week, compared to 25% who said that was their planned vote at the start of the election campaign. The proportion of respondents backing the Tories is at 26%, compared to 32% backing the party at the start of the campaign.

    I call bollocks
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    NickPalmer said:

    Told you Boon wouldn't be gloating over a poll going the other way! Wish I'd been wrong, but hey.

    I too can buff my nails.

    Looks like we have late herding after all.
  • JohnO
    JohnO Posts: 4,312
    I wonder if David Herdson will explain his sudden change of view.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BethRigby: So..... senior Tory tells me 70++ win will be a 'big' win & rumour has it that the bigger the win the bigger the re… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/872559837468659712
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/872558807301455872

    Well, shows me as wrong.

    Still, exact same difference between the parties as last time, what a waste of time and effort. And LDs up but still likely to lose seats as others up even more.

    Everyone always said YouGov knew what they are doing.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/872558807301455872

    C + UKIP down 4 points in 2 years. 47 from 51. I wonder if UNS becomes the biggest casualty.

    Con - Lab gap same as 2015. LD goes up 2 points. Con seats increase !!!
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    Casino_Royale said:

    Martin Boon had two Kabooms. We know one. Not the other one.

    David Herdson has bedwetted. I am worried.

    I need answers.

    I thought Kaboom2 was a false alarm?
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,251
    Scott_P said:

    This time tomorrow we will know if Boris is going to be the next PM...

    Oh God no.

    To stretch the Alien versus Predator analogy: that'd be Alien versus Frank Spencer.
  • WhisperingOracle
    WhisperingOracle Posts: 10,470
    Hmm, not sure how that translates into seats, but I still stick by my Tory 30-60 seats majority prediction.

    I thought the other Kaboom had been discredited .. ?
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    numbertwelve said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Still worries me what David Herdson said, though.

    Maybe he got wind of the 3% Lab lead false rumour?
    TSE on last thread confirmed David Herdson DID NOT make that statement
  • GideonWise
    GideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Pathetic from YouGov. Credibility is shot.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    I am still going to have to vote Tory just in case...The free baby better be tasty, going with the chargrilled option.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/872558807301455872

    Herding!
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Casino_Royale said:

    Martin Boon had two Kabooms. We know one. Not the other one.

    David Herdson has bedwetted. I am worried.

    I need answers.

    Don't fret old bean. One voice in one seat. Listen to what other activists are saying, listen to what Labour activists are saying...
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Chameleon said:

    First, like Labour!

    ho ho ho

    Hello Diane
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited June 2017
    Final Comres swings by region since 2015

    NorthEast
    Cons 44
    Lab 41
    LD 9
    Swing 12.5% Labour to Cons

    NorthWest
    Cons 42
    Lab 45
    LD 6
    Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons

    Yorkshire and Humber
    Cons 46
    Lab 41
    LD 7
    Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons

    West Midlands
    Cons 46
    Lab 34
    LD 10
    Swing 1.5% Labour to Cons

    East Midlands
    Cons 51
    Lab 35
    LD 3
    Swing 2% Labour to Cons

    Wales
    Cons 40
    Lab 38
    LD 5
    Swing 6% Labour to Cons

    East
    Cons 51
    Lab 30
    LD 12
    Swing 3% Cons to Labour

    London
    Cons 42
    Lab 41
    LD 11
    Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons

    South East
    Cons 47
    Lab 29
    LD 13
    Swing 7.5% Cons to Labour

    South West
    Cons 49
    Lab 29
    LD 12
    Swing 4.5% Cons to Labour

    Scotland
    Cons 27
    Lab 16
    SNP 45
    LD 9
    Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Stereotomy said:

    Kantar poll still isn't on wikipedia ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#2017 ) Any others we're missing from there?

    YouGov and Kantar now on there.

    Still missing Panelbase - Con +8.
  • TudorRose
    TudorRose Posts: 1,683
    AlastairMeeks said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Told you Boon wouldn't be gloating over a poll going the other way! Wish I'd been wrong, but hey.

    I too can buff my nails.

    Looks like we have late herding after all.
    That should be a cause for concern at this stage; it implies none of them really have a clue....
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    paging david herdson, paging david herdson we need elaboration
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    NickPalmer said:

    Told you Boon wouldn't be gloating over a poll going the other way! Wish I'd been wrong, but hey.

    Well done Nick - we may not agree on politics too much but I do admire your posts
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    I've missed a few podcasts, is this TSE's first appearance?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    So - YouGov.

    Either -

    a) full of shit for the past 10 days

    b) decided to herd

    c) they have picked up on a massive late swing against Corbyn

    d) a combo of the above.
  • midwinter
    midwinter Posts: 1,112
    numbertwelve said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Martin Boon had two Kabooms. We know one. Not the other one.

    David Herdson has bedwetted. I am worried.

    I need answers.

    I thought Kaboom2 was a false alarm?
    Yep
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    FPT
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    So it's The Herdson Vs JohnO and Mr Jack?
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    AlastairMeeks said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Told you Boon wouldn't be gloating over a poll going the other way! Wish I'd been wrong, but hey.

    I too can buff my nails.

    Looks like we have late herding after all.
    Except that YouGov still has its model pointing to NOM, so now they have two horses in the race and only lose from a landslide
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Still worries me what David Herdson said, though.

    Maybe he got wind of the 3% Lab lead false rumour?
    TSE on last thread confirmed David Herdson DID NOT make that statement
    No, he confirmed David Herdson did make "that post".
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/872558807301455872

    Herding!
    No, he is predicting a switch in the other direction.

    #easyjoke
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,726
    Is there no video, we want to see TSEs shoes!
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Wiki has LD and UKIP wrong way round on YouGov.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    JohnO said:

    I wonder if David Herdson will explain his sudden change of view.

    Some bad doorsteps.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Re. YouGoov

    How do changes compared with past YouGov poll for Sunday Times?
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    williamglenn said:

    That's a huge jump for the Lib Dems from YouGov.

    Yes, I noticed that too, and I think some of the other polls have shown a nudge up. It's reasonable to assume that it's concentrated in their defence/target seats, which may mean some striking variations.

    Overall, though, a lead of 7-8 seems plausible, with a little bit of swingback to the Tories in these final days as people peruse the Mail and Sun...
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,290
    It's interesting that two final polls have big movements LD->Lab and Lab->LD. Is it just a sign of tactical voting that is showing up in opposite directions in the samples?
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
    No, he's pissed off. In fact, he's fuming.

    He might be wrong as well but the response on the doorstep this evening was not healthy (from a Con viewpoint). Maybe I was just unlucky with who I spoke to (or who spoke to me) but it's a week since I've done serious canvassing as I've been delivering for most of the interim and the mood was definitely changed.

    Sorry for posting that and then buggering off. Dinner and baby duties.

  • Andrew
    Andrew Posts: 2,900
    Alistair said:

    I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?

    Glenfiddy is smooth but boring. Laphroaig kicks you in the nuts but leaves you wanting more.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    kle4 said:

    Knowing posters real names ruins the mystery for me!

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.

    If "the Cons are on 300" and "Corbyns going to do this", "the polls are right" would be wrong
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Can someone explain to me why ICM have the Conservatives at 47% in the detailed tables but it is announced as 46%?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    kjohnw said:

    paging david herdson, paging david herdson we need elaboration

    He might have had a really bad last minute leafleting session with some waverers in Wakefield, that didn't go as expected, and the canvass returns/late data has shrunk on the winning margin.
  • Bobajob_PB
    Bobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Scott_P said:

    @BethRigby: So..... senior Tory tells me 70++ win will be a 'big' win & rumour has it that the bigger the win the bigger the re… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/872559837468659712

    May packs the cabinet with Remainers??
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    HYUFD said:

    Final Comres swings by region since 2015

    NorthEast
    Cons 44
    Lab 41
    LD 9
    Swing 12.5% Labour to Cons

    NorthWest
    Cons 42
    Lab 45
    LD 6
    Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons

    Yorkshire and Humber
    Cons 46
    Lab 41
    LD 7
    Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons

    West Midlands
    Cons 46
    Lab 34
    LD 10
    Swing 1.5% Labour to Cons

    East Midlands
    Cons 51
    Lab 35
    LD 3
    Swing 2% Labour to Cons

    Wales
    Cons 40
    Lab 38
    LD 5
    Swing 6% Labour to Cons

    East
    Cons 51
    Lab 30
    LD 12
    Swing 3% Cons to Labour

    London
    Cons 42
    Lab 41
    LD 11
    Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons

    South East
    Cons 47
    Lab 29
    LD 13
    Swing 7.5% Cons to Labour

    South West
    Cons 49
    Lab 29
    LD 12
    Swing 4.5% Cons to Labour

    Scotland
    Cons 27
    Lab 16
    SNP 45
    LD 9
    Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf

    Pretty big swings to Lab in the South - not a worry for Con, whose seats are safe, but for the LDs and their future prospects?

    I'm expecting Lab to get second in many seats round here.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    Alistair said:

    I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?

    The first, no contest. You'll be equipped for a wider range of projections.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    HYUFD said:

    Final Comres swings by region since 2015

    London
    Cons 42
    Lab 41
    LD 11
    Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons

    Scotland
    Cons 27
    Lab 16
    SNP 45
    LD 9
    Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf

    Obviously difficult to draw too many conclusions about sub samples, but they don't look right to me.
  • JohnO
    JohnO Posts: 4,312
    edited June 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    JohnO said:

    I wonder if David Herdson will explain his sudden change of view.

    Some bad doorsteps.
    But he was delivering not canvassing and still thought that Wakefield would be captured. Computer is confused.

    I see David has explained.
  • pbr2013
    pbr2013 Posts: 649
    West Yorkshire accents are better than South Yorkshire ones.
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    1. What is the change from last yougov?

    2. Do we know that the David Herdson who confirmed the David Herdson post, was David Herdson? Just that if someone can post as him, it's more likely because they have a device of his already logged in than that they know his password, and if they have a device it's probably also logged on to email.

    3. If it is really him, any chance of expanding on the post?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am still going to have to vote Tory just in case...The free baby better be tasty, going with the chargrilled option.

    Boiled for me please, it's my first time.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    Alistair said:

    I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?

    Both.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    ELBOW for the four polls so far this week (Opinium/SurveyMonkey/ICM/ComRes):

    Con 43.58
    Lab 33.44
    LD 7.52
    UKIP 4.58

    Tory lead 10.14
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    glw said:

    Alistair said:

    I'm not a whisky drinker but I have two miniatures in the pantry: a 10 year old Laphroaig and a 18 year old Glenfiddich. Which one for the exit poll tomorrow?

    Both.
    Glenfiddich first then savour the Laphroaig.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    The_Apocalypse said:

    David Herdson still should state the basis of why he thinks the Tories will get only 300+ seats. It's not really helpful to put that out there and then leave people in the lurch.

    I'm rather concerned about his state of mind - stress and overwork I expect.

    Lets consider his comment - Con at 300 but still gain Wakefield.

    If the Conservatives gain Wakefield they're likely to gain at least 20 seats so to fall to 300 they would need to lose at least 50 which they presently hold.

    Now does anyone think that likely ?

    And what's brought on this change of mind - some leafleting in Wakefield or Hemsworth ?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    TudorRose said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    NickPalmer said:

    Told you Boon wouldn't be gloating over a poll going the other way! Wish I'd been wrong, but hey.

    I too can buff my nails.

    Looks like we have late herding after all.
    That should be a cause for concern at this stage; it implies none of them really have a clue....
    You don't say

    You might as well ask Derek Acorah's Ethiopian spirit guide
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    I wonder if David Herdson will explain his sudden change of view.

    David is about to elope to eastern Germany with a lady of fragile health in a motorcycle made for two ....
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited June 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    1. What is the change from last yougov?

    2. Do we know that the David Herdson who confirmed the David Herdson post, was David Herdson? Just that if someone can post as him, it's more likely because they have a device of his already logged in than that they know his password, and if they have a device it's probably also logged on to email.

    3. If it is really him, any chance of expanding on the post?

    +1. It does not seem to be in character to just make a statement and then go off and not expand on it. That's the part that makes me think something is amiss here.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    24 hours and 40 minutes to the first results.....

    Twenty-twenty-twenty four hours to go,
    I wanna be sedated.....
    Nothing to do, no where to go oh,
    I wanna be sedated

    Just get me to the airport, put me on a plane
    Hurry hurry hurry, before I go insane
    I can't control my fingers, I can't control my brain
    Oh no oh no oh no.....
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Can someone explain to me why ICM have the Conservatives at 47% in the detailed tables but it is announced as 46%?

    47% is the figure before the spiral of silence adjustment.

    46% is the post spiral of silence adjustment

    Look at table 5, not table 4
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Ishmael_Z said:

    1. What is the change from last yougov?

    2. Do we know that the David Herdson who confirmed the David Herdson post, was David Herdson? Just that if someone can post as him, it's more likely because they have a device of his already logged in than that they know his password, and if they have a device it's probably also logged on to email.

    3. If it is really him, any chance of expanding on the post?

    He did -- look at the end of the last thread.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @whatukthinks: Latest @YouGov @thetimes poll. In hindsight #Brexit right 45 (+1); wrong 45 (n/c). Fwork 5-7.6.17
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    David Herdson's post at 8.43pm did seem rather uncharacteristic in its abruptness and the absence of elegant writing. The conclusion seemed rather surprising too. Given that this is a betting site and David is one of the site's renowned posters I think it would have been helpful had he elaborated.

    I am a fan of David's contributions but that one appeared very odd.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final Comres swings by region since 2015

    London
    Cons 42
    Lab 41
    LD 11
    Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons

    Scotland
    Cons 27
    Lab 16
    SNP 45
    LD 9
    Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
    http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf

    Obviously difficult to draw too many conclusions about sub samples, but they don't look right to me.
    London & SE swinging heavily to lab makes sense.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    edited June 2017
    david_herdson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    Is he OK? Really didn't sound like him.
    No, he's pissed off. In fact, he's fuming.

    He might be wrong as well but the response on the doorstep this evening was not healthy (from a Con viewpoint). Maybe I was just unlucky with who I spoke to (or who spoke to me) but it's a week since I've done serious canvassing as I've been delivering for most of the interim and the mood was definitely changed.

    Sorry for posting that and then buggering off. Dinner and baby duties.

    Hmm.

    So we wait another 24 hours for the exit poll :open_mouth:
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Can someone explain to me why ICM have the Conservatives at 47% in the detailed tables but it is announced as 46%?

    47% is the figure before the spiral of silence adjustment.

    46% is the post spiral of silence adjustment

    Look at table 5, not table 4
    Yeah Alastair, sharpen up
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Is there no video, we want to see TSEs shoes!

    put sun glasses on first
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    kle4 said:

    Knowing posters real names ruins the mystery for me!

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    David Herdson has confirmed to me that he did post that comment at 8.43pm

    This should be the header - I never thought he had been hacked, but I guess I wasn't paying attention, as I didn't think he was so glum on Tory prospects as to predict 300 Tory seats.

    I might have over-reacted. Still, I'm very dubious about 325+ and wouldn't be buying at that level. I'm also exhausted after seven weeks trying to oversee two constituency campaigns, do a full-time job and look after a nine-month old baby 24/7 (or about 20/7 anyway).

    Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,312
    YouGov's mega model also suggests the reemergence of tactical voting as the campaign closes....no change in Tory/Labour VI, but projecting more Labour and more LibDem seats and fewer Tory...
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