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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Election eve special

On a special eve of election podcast Keiran is joined by Politicalbetting.com Editor Mike Smithson and Deputy Habib Butt (TSE) to review the campaign, polls, seats to watch tomorrow night and to make some predictions.
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Ok 3rd like the Lib Dems
Edit: oh there it is.
It's the crapness of the campaign, and Labour recovery, combined with the fear that this time things really could be different, and trying not to get overexcited by believing the most positive polls, that things really could be that good for them.
Is he tied up somewhere guarded by big chaps with Russian accents?
ICM 12 CON lead
ComRes 10
Panelbase 8
Opinium 7
YouGov 7
TMS 5
Kantar 5
David Herdson has bedwetted. I am worried.
I need answers.
Wanders off to check facebook post......
Ok - it leads to this
http://www.gazette-news.co.uk/news/15331840.REVEALED__Survey_shows_Labour_may_have_won_enough_support_to_overtake_Conservatives_in_our_region/
Across the region, 34% of people said they are planning to vote Labour later this week, compared to 25% who said that was their planned vote at the start of the election campaign. The proportion of respondents backing the Tories is at 26%, compared to 32% backing the party at the start of the campaign.
I call bollocks
Looks like we have late herding after all.
Still, exact same difference between the parties as last time, what a waste of time and effort. And LDs up but still likely to lose seats as others up even more.
Everyone always said YouGov knew what they are doing.
Con - Lab gap same as 2015. LD goes up 2 points. Con seats increase !!!
To stretch the Alien versus Predator analogy: that'd be Alien versus Frank Spencer.
I thought the other Kaboom had been discredited .. ?
Hello Diane
NorthEast
Cons 44
Lab 41
LD 9
Swing 12.5% Labour to Cons
NorthWest
Cons 42
Lab 45
LD 6
Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons
Yorkshire and Humber
Cons 46
Lab 41
LD 7
Swing 5.5% Labour to Cons
West Midlands
Cons 46
Lab 34
LD 10
Swing 1.5% Labour to Cons
East Midlands
Cons 51
Lab 35
LD 3
Swing 2% Labour to Cons
Wales
Cons 40
Lab 38
LD 5
Swing 6% Labour to Cons
East
Cons 51
Lab 30
LD 12
Swing 3% Cons to Labour
London
Cons 42
Lab 41
LD 11
Swing 4.5% Labour to Cons
South East
Cons 47
Lab 29
LD 13
Swing 7.5% Cons to Labour
South West
Cons 49
Lab 29
LD 12
Swing 4.5% Cons to Labour
Scotland
Cons 27
Lab 16
SNP 45
LD 9
Swing 8.5% SNP to Tory
http://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Independent_FINAL-VI-and-Political-Poll_7th-June-2017_130392.pdf
Still missing Panelbase - Con +8.
Either -
a) full of shit for the past 10 days
b) decided to herd
c) they have picked up on a massive late swing against Corbyn
d) a combo of the above.
So it's The Herdson Vs JohnO and Mr Jack?
#easyjoke
How do changes compared with past YouGov poll for Sunday Times?
Overall, though, a lead of 7-8 seems plausible, with a little bit of swingback to the Tories in these final days as people peruse the Mail and Sun...
He might be wrong as well but the response on the doorstep this evening was not healthy (from a Con viewpoint). Maybe I was just unlucky with who I spoke to (or who spoke to me) but it's a week since I've done serious canvassing as I've been delivering for most of the interim and the mood was definitely changed.
Sorry for posting that and then buggering off. Dinner and baby duties.
I'm expecting Lab to get second in many seats round here.
I see David has explained.
2. Do we know that the David Herdson who confirmed the David Herdson post, was David Herdson? Just that if someone can post as him, it's more likely because they have a device of his already logged in than that they know his password, and if they have a device it's probably also logged on to email.
3. If it is really him, any chance of expanding on the post?
Con 43.58
Lab 33.44
LD 7.52
UKIP 4.58
Tory lead 10.14
Lets consider his comment - Con at 300 but still gain Wakefield.
If the Conservatives gain Wakefield they're likely to gain at least 20 seats so to fall to 300 they would need to lose at least 50 which they presently hold.
Now does anyone think that likely ?
And what's brought on this change of mind - some leafleting in Wakefield or Hemsworth ?
You might as well ask Derek Acorah's Ethiopian spirit guide
Twenty-twenty-twenty four hours to go,
I wanna be sedated.....
Nothing to do, no where to go oh,
I wanna be sedated
Just get me to the airport, put me on a plane
Hurry hurry hurry, before I go insane
I can't control my fingers, I can't control my brain
Oh no oh no oh no.....
46% is the post spiral of silence adjustment
Look at table 5, not table 4
I am a fan of David's contributions but that one appeared very odd.
So we wait another 24 hours for the exit poll
Having said all that, I still think that May's blown it.