Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general el

1910111315

Comments

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I ran a social experiment tonight. I asked two voters who said they weren't very interested in politics what they recalled of the campaign. They named the following seven items:

    Care
    Diane Abbott (this drew particularly strong responses)
    Police cuts
    Theresa May's u turn
    Jeremy Corbyn's sums not adding up
    The terrorist attacks
    Tax

    I thought that was an excellent summary of the election.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401
    Russia: fuck off.

    That's all.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JohnO said:

    Three hours delivering in deepest Tolworth earlier but knocking up (in the best possible taste) tomorrow afternoon.
    I am told Labour numbers are going up. Bad news for Davey.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698
    kyf_100 said:

    I always imagined that SeanT based his persona on Oliver Reed.
    Bill Nighy. He always plays someone who cops off with younger women.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789

    I ran a social experiment tonight. I asked two voters who said they weren't very interested in politics what they recalled of the campaign. They named the following seven items:

    Care
    Diane Abbott (this drew particularly strong responses)
    Police cuts
    Theresa May's u turn
    Jeremy Corbyn's sums not adding up
    The terrorist attacks
    Tax

    I thought that was an excellent summary of the election.

    so not the dirtiest campaign ever ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Was it down to letters from a well known political website owner?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,527
    There's a special place in hell reserved for poll rampers.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    If it's someone else and they also post on here - the culprit deserves permanent banishment to conhome and to spend the rest of eternity wearing richard burgon's soiled underwear on their head.
    I'd vote for a party who advocated that sort of justice!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137

    I would agree with that, but it is to a degree why Corbyn apppeals to Lib Dems. He also believes in local accountability. At the heart of his criticisms of anti terrorist and police powers historically is the lack of democratic and judicial accountability. He sees how such excessive powers can become instruments of state oppression.

    Yes, but like all left-wingers, once in power his principle driving force will (would) be how to control everything.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    JackW said:

    Are you making a pitch for PB - The Movie .... using old stars of the silver screen reanimated in CGI - Starring :

    Yul Bryner as Mike Smithson
    Bet Davis as Peter the Punter
    Charles Hawtrey as Robert Smithson
    Sid James as SeanT
    David Niven as JohnO
    Sean Connery as JackW
    Some people might find the casting a bit biased.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    edited June 2017

    Russia: fuck off.

    That's all.

    What have they done now?
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    A thought, albeit a depressing one. We know there was an attempt to interfere with the US and French elections via online means, and yet there's been nothing here. Why not? Better security? Obvious result so no point? Or has something been done that we haven't seen yet?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    Is this a good time to mention that I backed the Lib Dems to win Vauxhall at 10/1
  • DougieDougie Posts: 57
    edited June 2017
    Pro bono publico, no bloody panico.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401
    To be honest, there will be a lot of ramping of particular seats tonight to drive up turnout.

    That doesn't mean one party is very confident, but it probably means it is *relatively* close.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137
    A tad worrying for our rcs...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,539
    If the national polls are anywhere near accurate and Labour are close in Vauxhall, then I think Farron, Clegg, Mulholland and Lamb are toast.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307
    surbiton said:

    I am told Labour numbers are going up. Bad news for Davey.
    Masses of LibDem posters (none for James Berry) BUT I don't know whether they are fewer than in 2015.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Ahh St Albans, at every election since the Romans it's been about to fall to the LDs.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,309
    Scott_P said:
    And the award for most foreseeable endorsement goes to...
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Scott_P said:
    They play to a group of people that do not care about anything else but winning independence, as such changing their tack every other day doesn't matter to them. That and their readership is somewhere south of 8k.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment because I have my doubts based on the IP address used.

    Thank Thor for that. It means I can put the rubber pants back away.

    Must admit I didn't think the Kremlin would be hacking PB, despite its central important to UK democracy.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349

    Bill Nighy. He always plays someone who cops off with younger women.
    I always imagine SeanT to speak like Martin Amis
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137
    glw said:

    Some people might find the casting a bit biased.
    Clive Dunn, not Sid James, surely?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,577
    Chameleon said:

    If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?

    Let's just say, in a small village in Wilstshire, Sir Anthony Eden is willing her to fail.....

    "At last - somebody worse than me!!"
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JohnO said:

    Three hours delivering in deepest Tolworth earlier but knocking up (in the best possible taste) tomorrow afternoon.
    I recall chatting to a chap many moons ago who spent a day knocking up in Wentworth and environs. Got round about a dozen residences all day but boy did he have a jolly time. Finished up at a cocktail party and then rumpy pumpy with the hostress.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Thank Thor for that. It means I can put the rubber pants back away.
    .
    Best keep them around for possible 1-2 polls showing Lab leads. just in case.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    Candidates I hope lose tomorrow:

    Tim Farron
    Vince Cable
    Zac Goldsmith
    David Tredinnick
    Claire Louise-Leyland
    Dennis Skinner
    That eight year old SNP MP lady
    Alex Salmond
    Caroline Lucas

    Feedback in Bosworth has been positive, but not enough to unseat Tredinnick, I fear.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    I ran a social experiment tonight. I asked two voters who said they weren't very interested in politics what they recalled of the campaign. They named the following seven items:

    Care
    Diane Abbott (this drew particularly strong responses)
    Police cuts
    Theresa May's u turn
    Jeremy Corbyn's sums not adding up
    The terrorist attacks
    Tax

    I thought that was an excellent summary of the election.

    Tax? I don't remember that bit; did they mean dementia tax, wealth tax, stealth tax....?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137
    Chameleon said:

    Ahh St Albans, at every election since the Romans it's been about to fall to the LDs.
    It was Liberal before the Romans turned up.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TudorRose said:

    Tax? I don't remember that bit; did they mean dementia tax, wealth tax, stealth tax....?
    I don't lead. That was what they said. Could've been the garden tax too.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    I ran a social experiment tonight. I asked two voters who said they weren't very interested in politics what they recalled of the campaign. They named the following seven items:

    Care
    Diane Abbott (this drew particularly strong responses)
    Police cuts
    Theresa May's u turn
    Jeremy Corbyn's sums not adding up
    The terrorist attacks
    Tax

    I thought that was an excellent summary of the election.

    Note Corbyn was not mentioned.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,690
    Hah just remembered before the Richmond by election the Lib Dems released canvass data showing them ahead.

    Oh please let it be true.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    They change the rules every time I learn them!!
    Just try the board game that EU cribs many of its ideas from....
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,698

    Is this a good time to mention that I backed the Lib Dems to win Vauxhall at 10/1
    It might also be a good time to close out that position.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Kantar's number in the May poll are fascinating.

    Would love ot see the changes with the most recent. The May poll had only 23% of 18-24 year olds as definitely voting (and only 47% whole population definitely voting).
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Chameleon said:

    Ooh the plot thickens. Or perhaps he is down the pub. Either that or Putin is turning his sights on pb...
    Putin wants to move the betting markets and make some money? But he already has £billions.

    BTW can anyone explain why the spreads are currently centred on a turnout of only 62.6%? Earlier today the discussion was on the general theme of a super-high turnout, probably over 65%, thanks to all these new young voters going out to vote.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    surbiton said:

    Note Corbyn was not mentioned.
    Note he was.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,401

    I don't lead. That was what they said. Could've been the garden tax too.
    Are you the real Alastair Meeks?

    *prods*
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Why am I not sad about a Labour loss ?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ab195 said:

    A thought, albeit a depressing one. We know there was an attempt to interfere with the US and French elections via online means, and yet there's been nothing here. Why not? Better security? Obvious result so no point? Or has something been done that we haven't seen yet?

    We aren't important enough.

    PS: if the result is obvious, can you share?
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    tlg86 said:

    If the national polls are anywhere near accurate and Labour are close in Vauxhall, then I think Farron, Clegg, Mulholland and Lamb are toast.
    Eh? Vauxhall is a 'Labour' defence. I use the inverted commas because it is the odious Kate Hoey who is the Labour MP there. Let's hope she loses.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    ab195 said:

    A thought, albeit a depressing one. We know there was an attempt to interfere with the US and French elections via online means, and yet there's been nothing here. Why not? Better security? Obvious result so no point? Or has something been done that we haven't seen yet?

    Joining online polling panels would seem one obvious way in for the Russians.

    Or supplying the leaked anti-Corbyn material (since Russia would want the Tories to win to deliver Brexit -- breaking up Europe is the prize).
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,886
    The Conservatives will stay in power, probably with an increased majority, although there's a small possibility of a minority government. The next parliament will be dominated by Brexit, which we don't have any control over after triggering Article 50. It will be a huge mess. No-one has a clue what they are doing. Mrs May called this election, in part, on a policy of not having a policy for Brexit. She didn't get her non-policy policy mandate. Expect lots of arguements unless her majority is massive.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    tlg86 said:

    If the national polls are anywhere near accurate and Labour are close in Vauxhall, then I think Farron, Clegg, Mulholland and Lamb are toast.
    Mulholland, yes, but the other 3 will be fine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/872552285481709568

    Voters say Britain needs new centre-ground party

    Where do they say that? It's a return to 2 party politics, if the result is as the Indy says, then we don't need a new party, and someone believes the result is bad, we need the one we have to do better.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432
    MTimT said:

    Congratulations! Taking over from the Rock for Baywatch 2?
    Actually, I'm casting for Pamela Anderson's role.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/hendopolis/status/872552285481709568

    I can't believe they still waste their time on a digital front page when their website is a pile of shit.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Sean_F said:

    There's a special place in hell reserved for poll rampers.

    Quite right.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited June 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    We aren't important enough.

    PS: if the result is obvious, can you share?
    It's not yet in the bag but so long as young people don't take their own pen, it's covered off.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    rcs1000 said:

    Actually, I'm casting for Pamela Anderson's role.
    Left or right?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,138
    edited June 2017
    Final 2015 polls compared to now

    Kantar TNS

    2015
    Tory 34
    Lab 33
    LD 7
    UKIP 15

    2017
    Tory 43
    Lab 38
    LD 7
    UKIP 14

    Opinium

    2015
    Tory 35
    Lab 34
    LD 8
    UKIP 12

    2017
    Tory 43
    Lab 36
    LD 8
    UKIP 5

    Comres

    2015
    Tory 35
    Labour 34
    LD 9
    UKIP 12

    2017
    Tory 44
    Lab 34
    LD 9
    UKIP 5

    ICM

    2015
    Tory 34
    Lab 35
    LD 9
    UKIP 11

    2017
    Tory 46
    Lab 34
    LD 7
    UKIP 5


    So every pollster showing a swing to the Tories since 2015 based on their final polls then and now, especially ICM and Comres

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Eh? Vauxhall is a 'Labour' defence. I use the inverted commas because it is the odious Kate Hoey who is the Labour MP there. Let's hope she loses.
    I was confused too, but I think the point was if LDs are up massively in Vauxhall but the national polls are right they are making no progress, then it is likely the LDs are doing well in London but poorly elsewhere, meaning other LDs are under threat?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Ladbrokes again are best priced 5-6 joint favourire the 2 in Hove.Some confidence this will stay red.Peter Kyle is a no-brainer in a Corbyn government.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367

    Joining online polling panels would seem one obvious way in for the Russians.

    GCHQ boasts of being able to manipulate online polls, but I assume they mean defeating the basic checks that some voodoo polls use (rate limiting, IP checks and so on), not filling panels with puppets. I wouldn't say it is impossible unless a pollster has some thorough verification, not that I think that's happening here.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,539

    Eh? Vauxhall is a 'Labour' defence. I use the inverted commas because it is the odious Kate Hoey who is the Labour MP there. Let's hope she loses.
    Sorry, I mean if the Lib Dems are close (i.e. if they are picking up a lot of votes here, they are losing them elsewhere to stay standing still).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @martinboon: Hearing Kaboom 2 might be misfeed. Don't know, we'll soon find out.

    just blown up in his face?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    matt said:

    Just try the board game that EU cribs many of its ideas from....
    I managed to get a second hand copy; so many cardboard chits!! I gave up in the end and went back to the computer version.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,031
    If the polls that show a labour lead are not out soon they will miss the paper reviews and will not be reported in the media tomorrow
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_P said:

    @martinboon: Hearing Kaboom 2 might be misfeed. Don't know, we'll soon find out.

    just blown up in his face?

    I'd be satisfied with one kaboom to be honest.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    edited June 2017
    Elm Park! Used to love going there on my bike as a kid. Most famous for the tube station piping classical music through the speakers to calm the nerves, and the BNP meetings in the old pub. No mention of Ukip winning, alas for my 33/1 bet :disappointed:

    https://twitter.com/davehill/status/872551497405534208
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    kle4 said:

    Voters say Britain needs new centre-ground party

    Where do they say that? It's a return to 2 party politics, if the result is as the Indy says, then we don't need a new party, and someone believes the result is bad, we need the one we have to do better.
    If voters want a centre ground party they are sure as hell going about showing it the wrong way it seems.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,862
    kle4 said:

    I was confused too, but I think the point was if LDs are up massively in Vauxhall but the national polls are right they are making no progress, then it is likely the LDs are doing well in London but poorly elsewhere, meaning other LDs are under threat?
    I think Ian's point is the correct one. If the LDs are up where it matters, it could be under the radar in a national poll but they could outperform on seats. If we have a return to tactical voting, all bets are off.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Note he was.
    Sums, not his personality or leadership.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    rcs1000 said:

    Actually, I'm casting for Pamela Anderson's role.
    Which bits ?!?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,554
    Scott_P said:

    twitter.com/carrie_symonds1/status/872553343486488577

    Disappointing from the currant bun.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,886

    I ran a social experiment tonight. I asked two voters who said they weren't very interested in politics what they recalled of the campaign. They named the following seven items:

    Care
    Diane Abbott (this drew particularly strong responses)
    Police cuts
    Theresa May's u turn
    Jeremy Corbyn's sums not adding up
    The terrorist attacks
    Tax

    I thought that was an excellent summary of the election.

    No mention of Brexit however.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,680
    edited June 2017

    Hearts of Iron IV is a serious time thief
    Yes, HOI. I never got past HOI III. The military side was fascinating, but the dumbed-down eonomics seemed a real pity. How does HOI IV change it?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,923

    Hah just remembered before the Richmond by election the Lib Dems released canvass data showing them ahead.

    Oh please let it be true.

    Surely it's just another version of the "It's a two-horse race, X can't win here" ploy.

    Lib Dem guidance for knockers-up is always: "Don't worry about irritating people, they'll have forgotten about it by next time".
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    edited June 2017
    My home village Fallin - was location of Polmaise pit !
    https://twitter.com/stephenckerr/status/872525824918007809
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    https://twitter.com/martinboon/status/872553155753648133

    So only 1 not 2 polls showing Labour leads then?
  • Scott_P said:

    @martinboon: Hearing Kaboom 2 might be misfeed. Don't know, we'll soon find out.

    just blown up in his face?

    Scott_P said:

    @martinboon: Hearing Kaboom 2 might be misfeed. Don't know, we'll soon find out.

    just blown up in his face?

    I'm unconvinced by this whole "CEO of serious data and analysis business moonlights as Court Jester" thing.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    JackW said:

    Which bits ?!?
    Both of them.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    surbiton said:
    You simply cannot believe these Lib Dem barcharts.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137
    TudorRose said:

    I managed to get a second hand copy; so many cardboard chits!! I gave up in the end and went back to the computer version.
    Empires at arms? Read the rulebook and look forward to a brilliant game...but unplayable in practice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/carrie_symonds1/status/872553343486488577

    Going for the 'he's clueless' approach rather than 'he's a terrorist(apologist)' approach I see (yes they mention it, but it's one of many points, and the image is about him being a fool, not dangerous).

    Terrible headline though. They can do better.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349

    I'm unconvinced by this whole "CEO of serious data and analysis business moonlights as Court Jester" thing.
    Ruskies have hacked Boon and Herdson?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    glw said:

    If voters want a centre ground party they are sure as hell going about showing it the wrong way it seems.
    Indeed! It reminds me of the Greens talking about being the voice of the people, such a disconnect.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    tlg86 said:

    Sorry, I mean if the Lib Dems are close (i.e. if they are picking up a lot of votes here, they are losing them elsewhere to stay standing still).
    There are special circumstances in Vauxhall. It's a deep red, ultra liberal, highly europhile, central London seat. Hoey is a socially conservative arch Labour Leaver who fraternised with Farage. It is has possibly the most incongruous MP of any seat in the whole country.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,309
    Chameleon said:

    I'd be satisfied with one kaboom to be honest.
    I could do without any kabooms, personally
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    kle4 said:

    Boon needs Kabooning.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,432
    PeterC said:

    Is that a long-term move? Will you still be on PB?
    Of course I'll still post!

    I don't know if it's long-term. I'm thinking of it as a two year project. But you never know. Maybe I'll end up staying.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830


    Boon needs Kabooning.
    +1.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Riddle me this:

    If Kaboom 1 Was YouGov showing a bigger Con Lead (still on) and Kaboom 2 was Survation showing a small Lab Lead (now cancelled) what does it mean for PB Bedwetters? ;)
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    kle4 said:
    I still don't know what Kaboom 1 was.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,137

    Yes, HOI. I never got past HOI III. The military side was fascinating, but the dumbed-down eonomics seemed a real pity. How does HOI IV change it?
    I understood it simplified a lot of the micro-management from III but spoiled the depth of the game in the process. So I didn't buy it. Maybe I should reconsider?
This discussion has been closed.