politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general el
Comments
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Kantar makes sense, their last was a little while back. Around the same time Survation was +6, Yougov was +7.0
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Darn.JohnO said:
Application refused.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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Still confident Mr O ?JohnO said:
Application refused.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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Well at least I greened up rather than redded out on next pm this time.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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Labour will >25% in Scotland. The Corbyn surge is very evident in the M8 corridor.Saltire said:
I think that the extra 2.5% difference in the CON/LAB from last time is not so huge that it make a big increase in the Tory seats.Black_Rook said:
If the gap is as big as 9% the majority is likely to be significantly greater than 64.Saltire said:Still think that the 20% of people who said that they are considering voting tactically could be massively important to the outcome of the election. There is no clear idea where the might help one party more than another (Except against the SNP) but I think that this could lead to quite few unexpected holds and gains of seats.
Since this puts a fair bit of doubt in the figures I would the final outcome being quite different to what the models and UNS predict.
Currently I am thinking we could see a result something like this:
CON 44% 357 SEATS
LAB 35% 216 SEATS
LD 10% 13 SEATS
UKIP 3% 0 SEATS
GRN 2% 1 SEAT
SNP/PC 5% 43/2 SEATS
OTH 1% 0 SEATS
NI 18 SEATS
Majority of 64
Tactical voting in E&W more anti Tory than Anti Corbyn but off set by Tory gains in Midlands and the North
LD on 13 is basically treading water in E&W and gaining 4 in Scotland.
The more the third party vote decays, the more irrelevant tactical voting becomes, because the third parties typically have few voters available to lend in most constituencies, and the surviving third party voters know their candidate hasn't a prayer and will mostly be sticking to their guns because of conviction.
Save for the small handful of seats in which the Lib Dems, Plaid and the Greens are competitive in England and Wales (the dozen they hold, plus perhaps another dozen or so realistic targets,) this is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour now. Scotland, of course, is a bit of a law unto itself nowadays.
Indeed when I put into the Election Calculus model with a SNP41C29LAB21LD8 split for Scotland I got this result for the Tories with slightly different numbers for the rest.0 -
And SurveyMonkey Con +4.The_Apocalypse said:Tory leads of 7, 12, 10, 8, and now 5 today. These pollsters....
So six polls - leads of 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 120 -
Of course.Tykejohnno said:
Still confident Mr O ?JohnO said:
Application refused.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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Corbyn and the SNP. Sweet Lord.Casino_Royale said:If Corbyn does just do it, with the Tories on 300, he isn't going to be able to do very much, and will be highly vulnerable to ambushes in the HoC.
Of course, conversely, that could work against the Tories further if they try and be too clever and "obstruct" his agenda.0 -
Based solely on expressed voting intentions, we have used multi-poll data to estimate seat totals for each party, accounting for eleven different constituency ‘types’. Our central estimate is that the Conservatives will win 341 seats (+10), Labour 232 (nc), the SNP 44 (-12), the Liberal Democrats 10 (+2), Plaid Cymru 3 (nc) and Greens 1 (nc). This would mean a formal majority of 32 for Theresa May, only slightly larger than it is now. However, there is a wide margin of error around these seat totals as specific constituency effects (which we cannot reliably detect) can be quite substantial. Furthermore, if the ‘best PM’ or ‘best party to manage the economy’ metrics are more indicative of the final result, a much larger Conservative majority is possibl
http://uk.kantar.com/ge2017/2017/conservatives-heading-for-election-win/0 -
They change the rules every time I learn them!!TudorRose said:
Europa Universalis can be heavy but very rewarding and immersive.Chameleon said:
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.NickPalmer said:
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.kle4 said:
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?NickPalmer said:
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.Essexit said:When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
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You'd take Osborne back right now in heartbeat wouldn't you?Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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Polls consistently show that some 7% of voters (claim to have) made their mind up in the polling station.DecrepitJohnL said:
Undecided voters would probably make up their minds today one way or the other simply because the election is tomorrow. If the DKs were predominantly the same persuasion -- anti-Corbyn Labour, or Tory remainers, or homeless Ukippers (because Ukip aren't standing) then they could all have been unduly influenced by very recent news like today's front pages (or sympathy for Diane Abbott in the other direction). Maybe we will have been told by the time I finish typing this.kle4 said:
I acknowledge I clearly do not understand people given the polling has already gone very differently to how I expected, but I really do not understand why the don't knows would suddenly stop saying don't know and go Tory because of that, when to a lesser extent they've been hearing that for weeks.DecrepitJohnL said:
Someone posted that Jim Messina reported an unusually high number of don't knows. It could be they've all now jumped in the same direction -- possibly Tory given the anti-Corbyn onslaught on today's tabloid front pages.WhisperingOracle said:
A massive contrast with all the pattern of the last week's polls, which as everyone has said has been all about the narrative of stabilisation of the tory lead, and Labour locked in in an improved but no longer mobile position, is sure to get coverage.MikeL said:
I don't think they'll make any difference - TV news isn't mentioning polls at all.WhisperingOracle said:
..which is why any that do, will have a disproportionate result on the news agenda, the night before the election itself.MikeL said:Surely the big picture is of stability in the final week.
Con lead was falling significantly up to then.
But we now have five final polls and taken together they suggest no discernable change from previous polls.
I guess a shock poll may lead a tabloid tomorrow but surely they'll just be in full cheerleading / attack mode.
This would have to be a either a Labour lead or a Tory twenty-pointer, though, mind.0 -
surbiton said:
I thought David Herdson went out canvassing. I did not realise he had been in the pub all evening.
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Clear as mud, eh?MikeL said:
And SurveyMonkey Con +4.The_Apocalypse said:Tory leads of 7, 12, 10, 8, and now 5 today. These pollsters....
So six polls - leads of 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 12
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It'd be very entertaining, if you had no assets or interest in the future of the UK.Pulpstar said:
Corbyn and the SNP. Sweet Lord.Casino_Royale said:If Corbyn does just do it, with the Tories on 300, he isn't going to be able to do very much, and will be highly vulnerable to ambushes in the HoC.
Of course, conversely, that could work against the Tories further if they try and be too clever and "obstruct" his agenda.0 -
Brexit RIP?Pulpstar said:
Corbyn and the SNP. Sweet Lord.Casino_Royale said:If Corbyn does just do it, with the Tories on 300, he isn't going to be able to do very much, and will be highly vulnerable to ambushes in the HoC.
Of course, conversely, that could work against the Tories further if they try and be too clever and "obstruct" his agenda.0 -
He's still insisting that Le Pen won POF17williamglenn said:
HYUFD will probably still be telling us she'll outlast Thatcher as she comes out to announce her resignation.midwinter said:
Several rungs below IDS....quite the achievementChameleon said:If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?
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But how would David know by leafleting? Perhaps he's caught whatever Abbott's got....surbiton said:I thought David Herdson went out canvassing. I did not realise he had been in the pub all evening.
If his account has not been hacked or he is not upto some mischief, this eerily reminds m eof the night before the 1992 election when something was in the air about a last minute swing.
Could the undecideds have plumped more towards Corbyn ?0 -
Are you making a pitch for PB - The Movie .... using old stars of the silver screen reanimated in CGI - Starring :rcs1000 said:I'm moving to Los Angeles
Yul Bryner as Mike Smithson
Bet Davis as Peter the Punter
Charles Hawtrey as Robert Smithson
Sid James as SeanT
David Niven as JohnO
Sean Connery as JackW
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The JohnO Is Not For Turning!JohnO said:
Of course.Tykejohnno said:
Still confident Mr O ?JohnO said:
Application refused.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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Maybe he is doing a new version of Baldrick's war poemAlastairMeeks said:"Kaboom" from a pollster who has just given a final poll with a Conservative lead of 12 is unlikely to be uncongenial to Conservatives.
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But why would Putin hack Mr Herdson's vanilla account?felix said:I'm still bemused by David Herdson's post - it seemed so blunt and has been followed by silence. Not like him at all.
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Perhaps he's taking a long warm bath with a pint of whiskey.felix said:I'm still bemused by David Herdson's post - it seemed so blunt and has been followed by silence. Not like him at all.
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Congratulations! Taking over from the Rock for Baywatch 2?rcs1000 said:
I'm moving to Los AngelesMTimT said:what's happening in 6 weeks? A big move?
FrancisUrquhart said:
Waiting for 008 to announce challenge accepted!!!rcs1000 said:
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.Charles said:
I can help you solve that problem ...rcs1000 said:Serious question for tomorrow:
What's everyone drinking?
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.0 -
It looks like a Fibonacci sequence.numbertwelve said:
Clear as mud, eh?MikeL said:
And SurveyMonkey Con +4.The_Apocalypse said:Tory leads of 7, 12, 10, 8, and now 5 today. These pollsters....
So six polls - leads of 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 120 -
No, Tim.IanB2 said:
Brexit RIP?Pulpstar said:
Corbyn and the SNP. Sweet Lord.Casino_Royale said:If Corbyn does just do it, with the Tories on 300, he isn't going to be able to do very much, and will be highly vulnerable to ambushes in the HoC.
Of course, conversely, that could work against the Tories further if they try and be too clever and "obstruct" his agenda.0 -
The more I think of the possibility of a hung parliament, the more excited I get by it.0
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Being smug about mental Corbynite socialism is a luxury afforded only to the rich, i.e. those with enough resources to survive it. A lot of us who aren't so lucky are genuinely terrified by the prospect.TheScreamingEagles said:Still if David Herdson is accurate, I'm going to be unbearably smug,
See, told you Cameron and Osborne are awesome, you feckers didn't realise how lucky you were to have them in charge for a decade.
Fortunately, I don't see how the Tories end up doing that badly. Where is Labour meant to find enough votes from to make this a close race?
That said, it would probably be better for my sanity if I took a rest from here for the next 24 hours...0 -
Is that a long-term move? Will you still be on PB?rcs1000 said:
I'm moving to Los AngelesMTimT said:what's happening in 6 weeks? A big move?
FrancisUrquhart said:
Waiting for 008 to announce challenge accepted!!!rcs1000 said:
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.Charles said:
I can help you solve that problem ...rcs1000 said:Serious question for tomorrow:
What's everyone drinking?
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.0 -
Or a resumption of tactical voting. Which would look the same in the polls, given that a majority of the challengers to Tory MPs are Labour. From the headline VI we simply cannot tell.Bobajob_PB said:
Labour just squeezing the life out of the minor Lefties on that poll.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Lib Dems, SNP, GreenIanB2 said:
Where has the +5 come from?MikeL said:
That's the first final poll to show big movement.Scott_P said:@iainjwatson: Final Kantar poll Con 43 labour 38 Libdem 7 UKIP4
Previous Kantar was 43/33.0 -
Quite the irony if the Tory Leavers got rid of the one man in the last quarter of a century to win them a majority and it screwed up Brexit because they couldn't even beat Corbyn without him.IanB2 said:
Brexit RIP?Pulpstar said:
Corbyn and the SNP. Sweet Lord.Casino_Royale said:If Corbyn does just do it, with the Tories on 300, he isn't going to be able to do very much, and will be highly vulnerable to ambushes in the HoC.
Of course, conversely, that could work against the Tories further if they try and be too clever and "obstruct" his agenda.0 -
Implacable.GIN1138 said:
The JohnO Is Not For Turning!JohnO said:
Of course.Tykejohnno said:
Still confident Mr O ?JohnO said:
Application refused.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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Look, I know you're a lawyer but can you cut out the double negatives please.AlastairMeeks said:"Kaboom" from a pollster who has just given a final poll with a Conservative lead of 12 is unlikely to be uncongenial to Conservatives.
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ICM, Yougov and Survation are playing for high stakes tonight. Some of them are going to look ridiculous in only 25 hours. The pressure is on.0
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They do have the internet in LA!PeterC said:
Is that a long-term move? Will you still be on PB?rcs1000 said:
I'm moving to Los AngelesMTimT said:what's happening in 6 weeks? A big move?
FrancisUrquhart said:
Waiting for 008 to announce challenge accepted!!!rcs1000 said:
I have (lots of) Ridge Montebello, (a bit of) Ridge Estate, (a case of) Haut Brion, some Corton Charlemagne, a (bottle of) Mouton Rothschild, and a bunch of other less valuable stuff. I'm happy to sell to any PBers at a sensible discount to true value, because not even SeanT could drink all my wine in the next six weeks.Charles said:
I can help you solve that problem ...rcs1000 said:Serious question for tomorrow:
What's everyone drinking?
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.0 -
Britain RIPIanB2 said:
Brexit RIP?Pulpstar said:
Corbyn and the SNP. Sweet Lord.Casino_Royale said:If Corbyn does just do it, with the Tories on 300, he isn't going to be able to do very much, and will be highly vulnerable to ambushes in the HoC.
Of course, conversely, that could work against the Tories further if they try and be too clever and "obstruct" his agenda.0 -
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Which she did in the first round by regionBobajob_PB said:
He's still insisting that Le Pen won POF17williamglenn said:
HYUFD will probably still be telling us she'll outlast Thatcher as she comes out to announce her resignation.midwinter said:
Several rungs below IDS....quite the achievementChameleon said:If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?
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Interesting to me is that apart from a couple none of the others are picking up any late swing to Labour. As to who is right its anybodys guess.0
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Why do I spend so much time on this website?
Can someone please tell me? Help me?0 -
Sounds good to me.Pulpstar said:
Corbyn and the SNP. Sweet Lord.Casino_Royale said:If Corbyn does just do it, with the Tories on 300, he isn't going to be able to do very much, and will be highly vulnerable to ambushes in the HoC.
Of course, conversely, that could work against the Tories further if they try and be too clever and "obstruct" his agenda.
Scotland finally given her freedom to be a modern European state.
May gone by Friday.
Soft Brexit.
Hard left madness restricted by Liberals and Labour moderates.
Won't happen.
Tory majority of 98.0 -
is there a message in you choosing the only person alive?JackW said:
Are you making a pitch for PB - The Movie .... using old stars of the silver screen reanimated in CGI - Starring :rcs1000 said:I'm moving to Los Angeles
Yul Bryner as Mike Smithson
Bet Davis as Peter the Punter
Charles Hawtrey as Robert Smithson
Sid James as SeanT
David Niven as JohnO
Sean Connery as JackW0 -
Out of interest - and because I know a fair few Blairites but only one Lib Dem, and he only joined last year because of Brexit - could you put a cigarette paper between being a Blairite and a left-leaning Lib Dem right now?nichomar said:
Well I'm actually a left leaning lib dem who could vote for a sensible labour party in the right seat but my two brothers always told me I was middle aged middle class and boring. Whilst it hurts me to admit this most Tories I encountered in local government as with other parties understood the concept of public service even if I disagreed with them. The current labour breed have missed this as I think all that local shit is irrelevant. It's a crying shame to see hard working labour mps vilified by momentum types and not recognizing what they actually achieve for their constituents.kyf_100 said:
Yes, you're right. I have a few friends on the Blairite side of Labour. The worst vitriol on any Facebook thread I've seen this campaign was when one of them, a staunch activist since our student days, posted his despair in the aftermath of the locals last month. He hasn't posted a word since.nichomar said:
You don't need to hold right wing views to think Corbyn is crap. I'm left of centre but dare not put my criticism of Corbyn on fb to my family, I told them during both leader elections they were robbing decent needy people of representation and hope but to them a socialist labour party was more important than winning. Oddly enough I don't actually they will have knocked on 20 doors between them and went to music festivals at the weekend.
The Corbynites hear nothing but the deafening sound of their own voices and don't think why everyone else has gone silent. They assume that only the old (who they think aren't on social media) vote Tory and that everyone else agrees with them.
I feel intimidated by them. I hate to think how much some of the abuse I see online would scare my gran. It really is a stain on politics, and on decent left wing people such as yourself and my activist friends, who've been active in their local Labour party for years.
I have suggested to one or two of the Blairite Labour people I know that they might be happier voting Lib Dem but the tribalism runs deep - in retrospect I should have seen that coming rather than predicting vast swathes of centrist Labour voters would turn Lib Dem at this election.0 -
calum said:
That's a big fall in the Tory lead within one pollster's series. Have any of the pollsters admitted tweaking their weightings or methodology any during that campaign, or are we indeed comparing like for like?0 -
Thanks for confirmingHYUFD said:
Which she did in the first round by regionBobajob_PB said:
He's still insisting that Le Pen won POF17williamglenn said:
HYUFD will probably still be telling us she'll outlast Thatcher as she comes out to announce her resignation.midwinter said:
Several rungs below IDS....quite the achievementChameleon said:If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?
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Looks more like a set of lottery numbers.MikeL said:
And SurveyMonkey Con +4.The_Apocalypse said:Tory leads of 7, 12, 10, 8, and now 5 today. These pollsters....
So six polls - leads of 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 120 -
If it's between Corbyn and Osborne, I'd lick his toes and beg for forgiveness.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'd take Osborne back right now in heartbeat wouldn't you?Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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I never said she will outlast Thatcher but she could certainly last until 2025williamglenn said:
HYUFD will probably still be telling us she'll outlast Thatcher as she comes out to announce her resignation.midwinter said:
Several rungs below IDS....quite the achievementChameleon said:If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?
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What size Con majority have you gone for?JohnO said:
Implacable.GIN1138 said:
The JohnO Is Not For Turning!JohnO said:
Of course.Tykejohnno said:
Still confident Mr O ?JohnO said:
Application refused.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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Well I'm wealthy enough to cope, but at least you know how I feel about Brexit.Black_Rook said:
Being smug about mental Corbynite socialism is a luxury afforded only to the rich, i.e. those with enough resources to survive it. A lot of us who aren't so lucky are genuinely terrified by the prospect.TheScreamingEagles said:Still if David Herdson is accurate, I'm going to be unbearably smug,
See, told you Cameron and Osborne are awesome, you feckers didn't realise how lucky you were to have them in charge for a decade.
Fortunately, I don't see how the Tories end up doing that badly. Where is Labour meant to find enough votes from to make this a close race?
That said, it would probably be better for my sanity if I took a rest from here for the next 24 hours...0 -
At least 100.GIN1138 said:
What size Con majority have you gone for?JohnO said:
Implacable.GIN1138 said:
The JohnO Is Not For Turning!JohnO said:
Of course.Tykejohnno said:
Still confident Mr O ?JohnO said:
Application refused.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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Are Survation or Yougov the Bonus Ball?SandyRentool said:
Looks more like a set of lottery numbers.MikeL said:
And SurveyMonkey Con +4.The_Apocalypse said:Tory leads of 7, 12, 10, 8, and now 5 today. These pollsters....
So six polls - leads of 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 120 -
I should have put,still confident of a big tory majority ;-)JohnO said:
Of course.Tykejohnno said:
Still confident Mr O ?JohnO said:
Application refused.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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..which seems to sum up a certain amount of the polling so far.SandyRentool said:
Looks more like a set of lottery numbers.MikeL said:
And SurveyMonkey Con +4.The_Apocalypse said:Tory leads of 7, 12, 10, 8, and now 5 today. These pollsters....
So six polls - leads of 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 120 -
Centralisation, control and target-setting versus decentralisation and localism is the principle philosophical difference.kyf_100 said:
Out of interest - and because I know a fair few Blairites but only one Lib Dem, and he only joined last year because of Brexit - could you put a cigarette paper between being a Blairite and a left-leaning Lib Dem right now?nichomar said:
Well I'm actually a left leaning lib dem who could vote for a sensible labour party in the right seat but my two brothers always told me I was middle aged middle class and boring. Whilst it hurts me to admit this most Tories I encountered in local government as with other parties understood the concept of public service even if I disagreed with them. The current labour breed have missed this as I think all that local shit is irrelevant. It's a crying shame to see hard working labour mps vilified by momentum types and not recognizing what they actually achieve for their constituents.kyf_100 said:
Yes, you're right. I have a few friends on the Blairite side of Labour. The worst vitriol on any Facebook thread I've seen this campaign was when one of them, a staunch activist since our student days, posted his despair in the aftermath of the locals last month. He hasn't posted a word since.nichomar said:
You don't need to hold right wing views to think Corbyn is crap. I'm left of centre but dare not put my criticism of Corbyn on fb to my family, I told them during both leader elections they were robbing decent needy people of representation and hope but to them a socialist labour party was more important than winning. Oddly enough I don't actually they will have knocked on 20 doors between them and went to music festivals at the weekend.
The Corbynites hear nothing but the deafening sound of their own voices and don't think why everyone else has gone silent. They assume that only the old (who they think aren't on social media) vote Tory and that everyone else agrees with them.
I feel intimidated by them. I hate to think how much some of the abuse I see online would scare my gran. It really is a stain on politics, and on decent left wing people such as yourself and my activist friends, who've been active in their local Labour party for years.
I have suggested to one or two of the Blairite Labour people I know that they might be happier voting Lib Dem but the tribalism runs deep - in retrospect I should have seen that coming rather than predicting vast swathes of centrist Labour voters would turn Lib Dem at this election.0 -
Indeed. Could actually work out better for the Libs if so.IanB2 said:
Or a resumption of tactical voting. Which would look the same in the polls, given that a majority of the challengers to Tory MPs are Labour. From the headline VI we simply cannot tell.Bobajob_PB said:
Labour just squeezing the life out of the minor Lefties on that poll.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Lib Dems, SNP, GreenIanB2 said:
Where has the +5 come from?MikeL said:
That's the first final poll to show big movement.Scott_P said:@iainjwatson: Final Kantar poll Con 43 labour 38 Libdem 7 UKIP4
Previous Kantar was 43/33.0 -
If it's a Yougov Lab lead or major shift to Lab, which turns out be right, then ICM would be exposed to the twin charges that they suck like a Dyson at their core competence and that their CEO (or whatever he is) is an infantile twat. The more likely theory is a major shift which suggests ICM right all along.Peter_the_Punter said:
Look, I know you're a lawyer but can you cut out the double negatives please.AlastairMeeks said:"Kaboom" from a pollster who has just given a final poll with a Conservative lead of 12 is unlikely to be uncongenial to Conservatives.
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She wont last till 20;25 on Friday if she doesn't get more seats than DaveHYUFD said:
I never said she will outlast Thatcher but she could certainly last until 2025williamglenn said:
HYUFD will probably still be telling us she'll outlast Thatcher as she comes out to announce her resignation.midwinter said:
Several rungs below IDS....quite the achievementChameleon said:If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?
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I've decided that this will be the last election that I will take seriously. They used to be fun but now they are cruel and unusual punishment. I blame Mike Smithson.0
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OK.JohnO said:
At least 100.GIN1138 said:
What size Con majority have you gone for?JohnO said:
Implacable.GIN1138 said:
The JohnO Is Not For Turning!JohnO said:
Of course.Tykejohnno said:
Still confident Mr O ?JohnO said:
Application refused.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
Come on YouGov and Survation give us what you've got! We're ready!
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I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment because I have my doubts based on the IP address used.0
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I'll be crying like a disgraced televangelist.Pulpstar said:
Corbyn and the SNP. Sweet Lord.Casino_Royale said:If Corbyn does just do it, with the Tories on 300, he isn't going to be able to do very much, and will be highly vulnerable to ambushes in the HoC.
Of course, conversely, that could work against the Tories further if they try and be too clever and "obstruct" his agenda.0 -
Why wouldn't it be?TheScreamingEagles said:I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment
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I was beginning to wonder the same thing but now I know; it's the Herdson cliffhanger.... has he been abducted by Corbynistas, were his leaflets poisoned, all will be revealed in the next exciting episode of PBTories Buy Pampers!Casino_Royale said:Why do I spend so much time on this website?
Can someone please tell me? Help me?0 -
Agreed. I used to play their WW2 games a lot too, before I got a bit too busy. The economics were rubbish but the politics were delightfully detailed - you could simulate what would have appened if the USA went Communit with President Gus Hall, or Britain went pro-Nazi, or other unlikely alternate histories.IanB2 said:
+1 for Paradox. Although City Skylines would appeal to the aspirant mayors in here.Chameleon said:
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.NickPalmer said:
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.kle4 said:
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?NickPalmer said:
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.Essexit said:When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
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Whatever you are afraid of, you will find it here.Casino_Royale said:Why do I spend so much time on this website?
Can someone please tell me? Help me?0 -
I always imagined that SeanT based his persona on Oliver Reed.Scrapheap_as_was said:
is there a message in you choosing the only person alive?JackW said:
Are you making a pitch for PB - The Movie .... using old stars of the silver screen reanimated in CGI - Starring :rcs1000 said:I'm moving to Los Angeles
Yul Bryner as Mike Smithson
Bet Davis as Peter the Punter
Charles Hawtrey as Robert Smithson
Sid James as SeanT
David Niven as JohnO
Sean Connery as JackW0 -
I love how PB swings one minute from Tory Mania to total panic based on a few polls.
Especially knowing how polls have been during this GE campaign.0 -
Hack by Putin?Casino_Royale said:
Why wouldn't it be?TheScreamingEagles said:I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment
0 -
"Furthermore, if the ‘best PM’ or ‘best party to manage the economy’ metrics are more indicative of the final result, a much larger Conservative majority is possible."calum said:Based solely on expressed voting intentions, we have used multi-poll data to estimate seat totals for each party, accounting for eleven different constituency ‘types’. Our central estimate is that the Conservatives will win 341 seats (+10), Labour 232 (nc), the SNP 44 (-12), the Liberal Democrats 10 (+2), Plaid Cymru 3 (nc) and Greens 1 (nc). This would mean a formal majority of 32 for Theresa May, only slightly larger than it is now. However, there is a wide margin of error around these seat totals as specific constituency effects (which we cannot reliably detect) can be quite substantial. Furthermore, if the ‘best PM’ or ‘best party to manage the economy’ metrics are more indicative of the final result, a much larger Conservative majority is possibl
http://uk.kantar.com/ge2017/2017/conservatives-heading-for-election-win/
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If I do not panic and wet the bed at a poll showing a Lab lead, there's no need for people to check, it is still me.TheScreamingEagles said:I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment
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I'm a lawyer. That's all I have.Peter_the_Punter said:
Look, I know you're a lawyer but can you cut out the double negatives please.AlastairMeeks said:"Kaboom" from a pollster who has just given a final poll with a Conservative lead of 12 is unlikely to be uncongenial to Conservatives.
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Perhaps he's like David Miliband - grinning from ear to ear though he knew hos brother had beaten him.Ishmael_Z said:
If it's a Yougov Lab lead or major shift to Lab, which turns out be right, then ICM would be exposed to the twin charges that they suck like a Dyson at their core competence and that their CEO (or whatever he is) is an infantile twat. The more likely theory is a major shift which suggests ICM right all along.Peter_the_Punter said:
Look, I know you're a lawyer but can you cut out the double negatives please.AlastairMeeks said:"Kaboom" from a pollster who has just given a final poll with a Conservative lead of 12 is unlikely to be uncongenial to Conservatives.
0 -
>
I never said she will outlast Thatcher but she could certainly last until 2025
Trust me us Party members will never allow Mrs May ever to fight another election. By a long long distance quite the worst campaign our lot have ever run in my lifetime and believe me I have seen some!0 -
TudorRose said:
I was beginning to wonder the same thing but now I know; it's the Herdson cliffhanger.... has he been abducted by Corbynistas, were his leaflets poisoned, all will be revealed in the next exciting episode of PBTories Buy Pampers!Casino_Royale said:Why do I spend so much time on this website?
Can someone please tell me? Help me? Bravo!!
0 -
Is that hearts of iron? The various versions struggle to get the right balance between complexity/micro-management and over-simplification.NickPalmer said:
Agreed. I used to play their WW2 games a lot too, before I got a bit too busy. The economics were rubbish but the politics were delightfully detailed - you could simulate what would have appened if the USA went Communit with President Gus Hall, or Britain went pro-Nazi, or other unlikely alternate histories.IanB2 said:
+1 for Paradox. Although City Skylines would appeal to the aspirant mayors in here.Chameleon said:
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.NickPalmer said:
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.kle4 said:
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?NickPalmer said:
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.Essexit said:When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
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I edit the post to explain why.Casino_Royale said:
Why wouldn't it be?TheScreamingEagles said:I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment
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Any more jaunts to SW London?JohnO said:
Implacable.GIN1138 said:
The JohnO Is Not For Turning!JohnO said:
Of course.Tykejohnno said:
Still confident Mr O ?JohnO said:
Application refused.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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Bedwetting levels MAXIanB2 said:
Whatever you are afraid of, you will find it here.Casino_Royale said:Why do I spend so much time on this website?
Can someone please tell me? Help me?0 -
Candidates I hope lose tomorrow:
Tim Farron
Vince Cable
Zac Goldsmith
David Tredinnick
Claire Louise-Leyland
Dennis Skinner
That eight year old SNP MP lady
Alex Salmond
Caroline Lucas
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The_Apocalypse said:
I love how PB swings one minute from Tory Mania to total panic based on a few polls.
Especially knowing how polls have been during this GE campaign.
They only have two states of mind, Tories, hubristic complacency or hysterical panic.0 -
Lol!TudorRose said:
I was beginning to wonder the same thing but now I know; it's the Herdson cliffhanger.... has he been abducted by Corbynistas, were his leaflets poisoned, all will be revealed in the next exciting episode of PBTories Buy Pampers!Casino_Royale said:Why do I spend so much time on this website?
Can someone please tell me? Help me?0 -
Fux sake.TheScreamingEagles said:I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment because I have my doubts based on the IP address used.
Thanks TSE.0 -
Hacked account??Casino_Royale said:
Why wouldn't it be?TheScreamingEagles said:I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment
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Something to cheer up the Corbynistas come Friday? They can live out their dreams there.NickPalmer said:
Agreed. I used to play their WW2 games a lot too, before I got a bit too busy. The economics were rubbish but the politics were delightfully detailed - you could simulate what would have appened if the USA went Communit with President Gus Hall, or Britain went pro-Nazi, or other unlikely alternate histories.IanB2 said:
+1 for Paradox. Although City Skylines would appeal to the aspirant mayors in here.Chameleon said:
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.NickPalmer said:
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.kle4 said:
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?NickPalmer said:
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.Essexit said:When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
(I played Democracy 3 once, trying to be as populist and sneakily set up a police state, it didn't work out so well - the economy completely crashed, crime actually skyrocketed and I was assassinated about 6 months into office).0 -
I presume Yougov will have a huge sample tonight. 5000, 10000 ? I am not talking about theirmodel.Ishmael_Z said:
If it's a Yougov Lab lead or major shift to Lab, which turns out be right, then ICM would be exposed to the twin charges that they suck like a Dyson at their core competence and that their CEO (or whatever he is) is an infantile twat. The more likely theory is a major shift which suggests ICM right all along.Peter_the_Punter said:
Look, I know you're a lawyer but can you cut out the double negatives please.AlastairMeeks said:"Kaboom" from a pollster who has just given a final poll with a Conservative lead of 12 is unlikely to be uncongenial to Conservatives.
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If it's someone else and they also post on here - the culprit deserves permanent banishment to conhome and to spend the rest of eternity wearing richard burgon's soiled underwear on their head.TheScreamingEagles said:I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment because I have my doubts based on the IP address used.
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Ooh the plot thickens. Or perhaps he is down the pub. Either that or Putin is turning his sights on pb...TheScreamingEagles said:I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment because I have my doubts based on the IP address used.
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Can you tell us whether the IP address was a Russian one?TheScreamingEagles said:I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment because I have my doubts based on the IP address used.
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I remember back in 2012 during the London Mayorals someone pretended to be Mike and tried to post misleading information.Casino_Royale said:
Fux sake.TheScreamingEagles said:I've emailed David Herdson to check that it was him that posted that comment because I have my doubts based on the IP address used.
Thanks TSE.0 -
Just checked previous TNS KAntar, in their tables they ask and publish the results of "Have you already voted by post"
In their 25th-30th May poll 17% of respondents had voted by post.0 -
I was always a Bullingdon boys fan, but they came through at the wrong time for their own images. Two posh boys cutting the state was always going to look bad, if they had just won an election a few years later I think they would have been able to win a full majority the first time around.Casino_Royale said:
If it's between Corbyn and Osborne, I'd lick his toes and beg for forgiveness.TheScreamingEagles said:
You'd take Osborne back right now in heartbeat wouldn't you?Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
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I might need some new sheets.0
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I've officially fallen out with pollsters. They've ruined my last fortnight.The_Apocalypse said:I love how PB swings one minute from Tory Mania to total panic based on a few polls.
Especially knowing how polls have been during this GE campaign.
0 -
I would agree with that, but it is to a degree why Corbyn apppeals to Lib Dems. He also believes in local accountability. At the heart of his criticisms of anti terrorist and police powers historically is the lack of democratic and judicial accountability. He sees how such excessive powers can become instruments of state oppression.IanB2 said:
Centralisation, control and target-setting versus decentralisation and localism is the principle philosophical difference.kyf_100 said:
Out of interest - and because I know a fair few Blairites but only one Lib Dem, and he only joined last year because of Brexit - could you put a cigarette paper between being a Blairite and a left-leaning Lib Dem right now?nichomar said:
Well I'm actually a left leaning lib dem who could vote for a sensible labour party in the right seat but my two brothers always told me I was middle aged middle class and boring. Whilst it hurts me to admit this most Tories I encountered in local government as with other parties understood the concept of public service even if I disagreed with them. The current labour breed have missed this as I think all that local shit is irrelevant. It's a crying shame to see hard working labour mps vilified by momentum types and not recognizing what they actually achieve for their constituents.kyf_100 said:
Yes, you're right. I have a few friends on the Blairite side of Labour. The worst vitriol on any Facebook thread I've seen this campaign was when one of them, a staunch activist since our student days, posted his despair in the aftermath of the locals last month. He hasn't posted a word sincenichomar said:
You don't need to hold right wing views to think Corbyn is crap. I'm left of centre but dare not put my criticism of Corbyn on fb to my family, I told them during both leader elections they were robbing decent needy people of representation and hope but to them a socialist labour party was more important than winning. Oddly enough I don't actually they will have knocked on 20 doors between them and went to music festivals at the weekend.
I feel intimidated by them. I hate to think how much some of the abuse I see online would scare my gran. It really is a stain on politics, and on decent left wing people such as yourself and my activist friends, who've been active in their local Labour party for years.
I have suggested to one or two of the Blairite Labour people I know that they might be happier voting Lib Dem but the tribalism runs deep - in retrospect I should have seen that coming rather than predicting vast swathes of centrist Labour voters would turn Lib Dem at this election.
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Three hours delivering in deepest Tolworth earlier but knocking up (in the best possible taste) tomorrow afternoon.JackW said:
Any more jaunts to SW London?JohnO said:
Implacable.GIN1138 said:
The JohnO Is Not For Turning!JohnO said:
Of course.Tykejohnno said:
Still confident Mr O ?JohnO said:
Application refused.Casino_Royale said:I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
0 -
Chortle.midwinter said:
She wont last till 20;25 on Friday if she doesn't get more seats than DaveHYUFD said:
I never said she will outlast Thatcher but she could certainly last until 2025williamglenn said:
HYUFD will probably still be telling us she'll outlast Thatcher as she comes out to announce her resignation.midwinter said:
Several rungs below IDS....quite the achievementChameleon said:If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?
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Hearts of Iron IV is a serious time thiefIanB2 said:
Is that hearts of iron? The various versions struggle to get the right balance between complexity/micro-management and over-simplification.NickPalmer said:
Agreed. I used to play their WW2 games a lot too, before I got a bit too busy. The economics were rubbish but the politics were delightfully detailed - you could simulate what would have appened if the USA went Communit with President Gus Hall, or Britain went pro-Nazi, or other unlikely alternate histories.IanB2 said:
+1 for Paradox. Although City Skylines would appeal to the aspirant mayors in here.Chameleon said:
Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.NickPalmer said:
Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.kle4 said:
There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?NickPalmer said:
Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.Essexit said:When are we expecting this poll? I want to play Civilization VI...
0 -
I just want to know why Kantar spent half an hour in my living room four weeks ago asking me which type of olive oil I buy, and whether I would consider a new type of blu tack that doesn't mark the walls, but never asked how I would be voting?Prodicus said:
"Furthermore, if the ‘best PM’ or ‘best party to manage the economy’ metrics are more indicative of the final result, a much larger Conservative majority is possible."calum said:Based solely on expressed voting intentions, we have used multi-poll data to estimate seat totals for each party, accounting for eleven different constituency ‘types’. Our central estimate is that the Conservatives will win 341 seats (+10), Labour 232 (nc), the SNP 44 (-12), the Liberal Democrats 10 (+2), Plaid Cymru 3 (nc) and Greens 1 (nc). This would mean a formal majority of 32 for Theresa May, only slightly larger than it is now. However, there is a wide margin of error around these seat totals as specific constituency effects (which we cannot reliably detect) can be quite substantial. Furthermore, if the ‘best PM’ or ‘best party to manage the economy’ metrics are more indicative of the final result, a much larger Conservative majority is possibl
http://uk.kantar.com/ge2017/2017/conservatives-heading-for-election-win/0 -
I always used to say "A man should have a hobby" at times like these.Casino_Royale said:Why do I spend so much time on this website?
Can someone please tell me? Help me?
Then I realised.
I'm quoting Psycho. Literally a quote about a murdered.0
