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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your essential Thursday evening companion. AndyJS’s general el

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game.
    There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game. But Alt-Tabbing now and then to check for polls :).
    Nick are you a fan of Gwent... they've reworked it for a standalone game
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    OUT said:

    103%
    Vote early - vote often!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,357
    marke09 said:

    someone on digitalspy politics thread has said hes heard (dont know how) that You GOv have a 7% Tory lead

    I'm doing exactly what I did in GE2015. Overtrading on rumour in fear of missing out.

    I backed Labour most seats at 7pm on the night, last time, before trading off again to Tory majority a few hours later!
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215

    Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game. But Alt-Tabbing now and then to check for polls :).
    Should play in widowed mode, no alt tabbing required then !
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    OUT said:

    103%
    Oops should have been 3.6% for the SNP!
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    marke09 said:

    someone on digitalspy politics thread has said hes heard (dont know how) that You GOv have a 7% Tory lead

    That the one with the 2k sample? Or their rolling 50k thingy?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,965

    Personally, I'm playhing Endless Space 2 - excellent game. But Alt-Tabbing now and then to check for polls :).
    Sensible idea Nick - Civ on laptop, PB on phone it is.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    EDW20000 said:

    worst election ever, turnout will be terrible. Cons <285</p>

    It has been a terrible campaign but I think turnout will be high. It "feels" like there's a lot at stake.

    I think we'll have the highest turnout since 1992 - Maybe appraoching 70% ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    Do we think:

    a) Corbyn might have done even better still, had the rebel MPs knuckled down and respected the vote of their members, rather than spending the first year undermining him at every turn?

    b) Owen Smith, Argclu or whoever would have done better, or worse, than campaigning Corbyn?
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Okay, so at 8.43 David Herdson posts his abrupt volte face and at 8.44 he posts a reply to a routine question about his earlier prediction, and silence since then. Does that make sense to anybody?
  • BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Roger said:

    Completely OT. I just read that a Millwall supporter took on the terrorists. Obviously saw a fight that was too good to miss. By his own account and by the size of him I'm sure he gave as good as he got. The police arrived within 8 minutes of the first call and shot the suspects dead. Surely if 'Millwall' was stuck in by that time why didn't he witness the shooting?

    In fact why has no one appeared on TV to say they witnessed the shooting?

    There's video of the killers attacking their last victim before the police arrive and shoot them. I'm not going to post it here, but if you are interested search Tommy Robinson on Twitter for a link.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited June 2017
    Ha, what a troll he is being.
    glw said:

    This is worse than the EU referendum. The worst case there was more EU bollocks, Corbyn and co. worry me far more than that.
    Agreed. I'm staying calm until 10pm tomorrow though. For the first time in ages I'm not taking part in a count, as if I have to freak out after the exit poll, I'd like to be in the comfort of my own home.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,415
    MTimT said:

    what's happening in 6 weeks? A big move?

    I'm moving to Los Angeles
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    Blimey, I disappear for an hour.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    You'd have to have a heart of stone to not laugh when the twitter climaxes over it tonight, only for May to be returned with a 100+ majority tomorrow.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    spudgfsh said:
    We've only got Survation and YouGov left for tonight haven't we?
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    PAGING DAVID HERDSON
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,644

    Okay, so at 8.43 David Herdson posts his abrupt volte face and at 8.44 he posts a reply to a routine question about his earlier prediction, and silence since then. Does that make sense to anybody?

    One sounded like David the other didn't.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Drutt said:

    Hanretty has Ynys Mon as 75% CON gain likelihood (midpoints CON 33, LAB 29, PC 21, UKIP 13). And yet CON is 5/1, 7/1 around the bookies. BF exchange too thin. At least one of them is wrong.

    Many of Henretty’s predictions for Wales look odd (e.g., the Pembrokeshire seats -> Labour).

  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525

    I'd have thought from the implied glee that he's heard that YouGov and/or Survation have suddenly shown big Tory leads, thereby validating ICM. If they were moving the other way, it'd be interesting but not a cause for glee.
    I think seems more likely than a Labour lead. It does look like we might get sudden herding from the pollsters right at the end of the campaign, not that it means they have got it right of course!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    GIN1138 said:

    We've only got Survation and YouGov left for tonight haven't we?
    Must be Survation's 11pm jobby. Explains why that geeky guy was so confident in predicting NOM on BBCDP today?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    IanB2 said:

    Do we think:

    a) Corbyn might have done even better still, had the rebel MPs knuckled down and respected the vote of their members, rather than spending the first year undermining him at every turn?

    b) Owen Smith, Argclu or whoever would have done better, or worse, than campaigning Corbyn?

    c), we're living in a computer simulation, and two years ago someone fiddled with the randomness generator.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    Ugh. MOE from previous, of course, and hopefully would still be wrong.

    It's be like Vettel's first championship win - never being in the lead, but snatched it in the final race.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677

    Nick are you a fan of Gwent... they've reworked it for a standalone game
    Don't know Gwent, tell me more?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Just one night without Pampers.... you get a nasty rash don't you know if exposed to them for too long and on here it's been weeks and that's without a single poll showing Lab in the lead.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,682
    Still if David Herdson is accurate, I'm going to be unbearably smug,

    See, told you Cameron and Osborne are awesome, you feckers didn't realise how lucky you were to have them in charge for a decade.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,540
    Survation could easily have labour ahead as they have had 1% tory leads.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    GIN1138 said:

    We've only got Survation and YouGov left for tonight haven't we?
    Perfect for disrupted sleep.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    To be fair, Survation could show a MOE shift and it would be a Labour lead.

    Huuuurm.
  • GIN1138 said:

    We've only got Survation and YouGov left for tonight haven't we?
    So it's either a reversal of their traditional biases for this campaign, or an exaggeration of them - or one of each.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/872543536746573824

    Another one from the Hung Parliament side of the Great Polling Divide
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920
    This is better than a play.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Don't know Gwent, tell me more?
    I must be misremembering Nick... it's the game within a game from The Witcher. Not that will make any sense at all since I must have you confused with another poster...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm moving to Los Angeles
    Corbyn hasn't won yet
  • RoyalBlueRoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    edited June 2017

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/872543536746573824

    Another one from the Hung Parliament side of the Great Polling Divide

    We had that earlier today. Whether a 4 point lead would be enough for a majority is entirely down to differential swing.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    A massive contrast with all the pattern of the last week's polls, which as everyone has said has been all about the narrative of stabilisation of the tory lead, and Labour locked in in an improved but no longer mobile position, is sure to get coverage.

    This would have to be a either a Labour lead or a Tory twenty-pointer, though, mind.
    Someone posted that Jim Messina reported an unusually high number of don't knows. It could be they've all now jumped in the same direction -- possibly Tory given the anti-Corbyn onslaught on today's tabloid front pages.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/872543536746573824

    Another one from the Hung Parliament side of the Great Polling Divide

    I don't think 42/38 is a hung parliament, I think it is similar to now.
  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Today's 4 polls have had Con leads of 7, 8, 10 and 12. Any poll showing a Labour lead will be well out of line, which is not to say it would be wrong, of course.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Still if David Herdson is accurate, I'm going to be unbearably smug,

    See, told you Cameron and Osborne are awesome, you feckers didn't realise how lucky you were to have them in charge for a decade.

    I'm not going to be smug, I'll be crying for weeks. That said I have adjusted a few overall positions.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900

    Survation could easily have labour ahead as they have had 1% tory leads.

    .....and 3% MoE. The Yougov for the Times was 4% +-2 iirc.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132

    https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/872543536746573824

    Another one from the Hung Parliament side of the Great Polling Divide

    The one pattern that is emerging is for a small late anti-Tory swing.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited June 2017
    If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?
  • I sometimes wonder if it is too easy to treat the "youth vote" as one giant homogeneous, progressive bloc. I've just returned from shopping at my local TESCO in Margate, and the young guy on the till was completely different to the typical Corbynista fan, screeching about tuition fees, food banks, zero hours and wicked Tory cuts. Instead he was profoundly optimistic about the economy, was looking for an apprenticeship in engineering, named several "great local employers" and had just bought his first car. Someone like him is utterly divorced from Corbyn's socialism.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    kle4 said:

    There's so many space 4x games out there - any idea how it stacks up against rivals?
    Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
  • IanB2 said:

    Do we think:

    a) Corbyn might have done even better still, had the rebel MPs knuckled down and respected the vote of their members, rather than spending the first year undermining him at every turn?

    b) Owen Smith, Argclu or whoever would have done better, or worse, than campaigning Corbyn?

    They've still been briefing against the campaign, even today. According to Norman Smith on the BBC the right of the party have been the ones telling him about Corbyn still being toxic on the doorstep, even today.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kyf_100 said:

    Yes, you're right. I have a few friends on the Blairite side of Labour. The worst vitriol on any Facebook thread I've seen this campaign was when one of them, a staunch activist since our student days, posted his despair in the aftermath of the locals last month. He hasn't posted a word since.

    The Corbynites hear nothing but the deafening sound of their own voices and don't think why everyone else has gone silent. They assume that only the old (who they think aren't on social media) vote Tory and that everyone else agrees with them.

    I feel intimidated by them. I hate to think how much some of the abuse I see online would scare my gran. It really is a stain on politics, and on decent left wing people such as yourself and my activist friends, who've been active in their local Labour party for years.
    Well I'm actually a left leaning lib dem who could vote for a sensible labour party in the right seat but my two brothers always told me I was middle aged middle class and boring. Whilst it hurts me to admit this most Tories I encountered in local government as with other parties understood the concept of public service even if I disagreed with them. The current labour breed have missed this as I think all that local shit is irrelevant. It's a crying shame to see hard working labour mps vilified by momentum types and not recognizing what they actually achieve for their constituents.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Someone posted that Jim Messina reported an unusually high number of don't knows. It could be they've all now jumped in the same direction -- possibly Tory given the anti-Corbyn onslaught on today's tabloid front pages.
    I acknowledge I clearly do not understand people given the polling has already gone very differently to how I expected, but I really do not understand why the don't knows would suddenly stop saying don't know and go Tory because of that, when to a lesser extent they've been hearing that for weeks.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Chameleon said:

    You'd have to have a heart of stone to not laugh when the twitter climaxes over it tonight, only for May to be returned with a 100+ majority tomorrow.
    Will be good for betting purposes at least! I haven't yet placed a single bet on the size of the majority...
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not going to be smug, I'll be crying for weeks. That said I have adjusted a few overall positions.
    Well it would win me the cost of dinner. However it could quite possibly cost me my job so...
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,562

    Today's 4 polls have had Con leads of 7, 8, 10 and 12. Any poll showing a Labour lead will be well out of line, which is not to say it would be wrong, of course.

    That said...

    if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck...
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainjwatson: Final Kantar poll Con 43 labour 38 Libdem 7 UKIP4
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Assume he's talking about individual seats
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    Chameleon said:

    If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?

    How much contrition will there be from Tories who campaigned for Brexit and caused Cameron's downfall?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    They've still been briefing against the campaign, even today. According to Norman Smith on the BBC the right of the party have been the ones telling him about Corbyn still being toxic on the doorstep, even today.
    Whisper it quietly, but maybe he is, but May sin't really that much better.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    Argh the tension is killing me.

    Maybe Survation shows Labour lead (kaboom 1) and Yougov starts to move to the Tories (Kaboom 2) or vice versa.

    I'll need a holiday after this. Possibly a permanent one if Corbyn gets in.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,357
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not going to be smug, I'll be crying for weeks. That said I have adjusted a few overall positions.
    Me too.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Chris said:

    This is better than a play.

    Wait until this time tomorrow with juist 55 mins to go until.... BONG!!!!!!! ;)
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Very well for my taste. I'm a MOO 2 fan - I like lots of rich detail plus asymmetric races plus turn-by-turn play plus decent AI. I hate3D fiddling and real-time action. Endless Space 2 is perfect for me - all the good stuff, plus evocative films of the battles (which one can switch off) but no real-time control. I'm beating the AI at Normal, but Hard is a bit more of a challeng, and it works well with humans too.
    Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    Scott_P said:

    @iainjwatson: Final Kantar poll Con 43 labour 38 Libdem 7 UKIP4

    That's the first final poll to show big movement.

    Previous Kantar was 43/33.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132

    Someone posted that Jim Messina reported an unusually high number of don't knows. It could be they've all now jumped in the same direction -- possibly Tory given the anti-Corbyn onslaught on today's tabloid front pages.
    Or just maybe people have had enough of a government that behaves as if it is entitled to another five years of majority power with nothing to offer us except knocking copy about its opposition?
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Chameleon said:

    If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?

    Several rungs below IDS....quite the achievement
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Chameleon said:

    If May emerges on Friday without a majority, just how badly will she go down in the all time rankings of Con leaders?

    sub IDS
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Tory leads of 7, 12, 10, 8, and now 5 today. These pollsters....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    MikeL said:

    That's the first final poll to show big movement.

    Previous Kantar was 43/33.
    Where has the +5 come from?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 38% (+5)
    LDEM: 7% (-4)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    (via @TNS_UK / 01 - 07 Jun)
    Chgs w 30 May
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    How much contrition will there be from Tories who campaigned for Brexit and caused Cameron's downfall?
    Cameron's downfall wasn't because of Brexit, it was because of how badly he positioned himself. If he'd said that he believed that this was a decision for the people to make and took no part then he could have easily survived.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    MikeL said:

    That's the first final poll to show big movement.

    Previous Kantar was 43/33.
    Lib Dems were 11.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    TudorRose said:

    But I'm not sure how leafleting would change your mind; canvassing yes.....
    Leafleting might change people`s mind. But the real question is: how would Mr Herdson know, if all he was doing was leafleting?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    Tory leads of 7, 12, 10, 8, and now 5 today. These pollsters....

    5-12 is an acceptable range. 1-12 or -1 to 12 is not.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 38% (+5)
    LDEM: 7% (-4)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    (via @TNS_UK / 01 - 07 Jun)
    Chgs w 30 May

    Well that's not really a kaboom.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    edited June 2017
    Kantar

    CON 43 (=)
    LAB 38 (+5)
    LIB 7 (-4)
    KIP 4 (=)
    GRN 2 (-1)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    IanB2 said:

    Where has the +5 come from?
    Lib Dems, SNP, Green
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Chameleon said:

    Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
    Europa Universalis can be heavy but very rewarding and immersive.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,357
    I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    We now know where Labour are getting that +5 in that Kantar poll. From the LDs and the Greens....squeezing the smaller parties.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    Chameleon said:

    Stellaris is a very decent recent addition to the genre. Paradox games generally are very high quality. Victoria 2 & Crusader Kings being my stand out recommendations.
    +1 for Paradox. Although City Skylines would appeal to the aspirant mayors in here.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    PClipp said:

    Leafleting might change people`s mind. But the real question is: how would Mr Herdson know, if all he was doing was leafleting?
    Thinking time while walking I presume.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    PClipp said:

    Leafleting might change people`s mind. But the real question is: how would Mr Herdson know, if all he was doing was leafleting?
    Lab posters up ?

    Theres plenty in middle class areas David don't worry if that was what got you worried
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,307
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43% (-)
    LAB: 38% (+5)
    LDEM: 7% (-4)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 2% (-1)

    (via @TNS_UK / 01 - 07 Jun)
    Chgs w 30 May

    Poor old Tim.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    Chameleon said:

    Cameron's downfall wasn't because of Brexit, it was because of how badly he positioned himself. If he'd said that he believed that this was a decision for the people to make and took no part then he could have easily survived.
    Only in the short term. Surviving to be the man to deliver Brexit would be a poisoned chalice. Remain needed to win, which is why he didn't sit out the campaign.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,984
    It will all come down to the truth of...

    May - Corbyn >= Cameron - Miliband
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    I'm still bemused by David Herdson's post - it seemed so blunt and has been followed by silence. Not like him at all.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,307

    I'd like to reapply for the bedwetters club, please.

    Application refused.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928

    Lib Dems, SNP, Green
    Labour just squeezing the life out of the minor Lefties on that poll.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,772
    Note dates of Kantar - 1 to 7 June - so some of it is almost a week old.

    Big picture is still no change in final 3 days.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Chameleon said:

    Cameron's downfall wasn't because of Brexit, it was because of how badly he positioned himself. If he'd said that he believed that this was a decision for the people to make and took no part then he could have easily survived.
    Maybe.....doubt he'd be sweating the night before an election against Corbyn however
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    If a poll comes in with Labour in the lead, this place will absolutely be hilarious.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited June 2017
    I thought David Herdson went out canvassing. I did not realise he had been in the pub all evening.

    If his account has not been hacked or he is not upto some mischief, this eerily reminds m eof the night before the 1992 election when something was in the air about a last minute swing.

    Could the undecideds have plumped more towards Corbyn ?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    kle4 said:

    I acknowledge I clearly do not understand people given the polling has already gone very differently to how I expected, but I really do not understand why the don't knows would suddenly stop saying don't know and go Tory because of that, when to a lesser extent they've been hearing that for weeks.
    Undecided voters would probably make up their minds today one way or the other simply because the election is tomorrow. If the DKs were predominantly the same persuasion -- anti-Corbyn Labour, or Tory remainers, or homeless Ukippers (because Ukip aren't standing) then they could all have been unduly influenced by very recent news like today's front pages (or sympathy for Diane Abbott in the other direction). Maybe we will have been told by the time I finish typing this.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    midwinter said:

    Several rungs below IDS....quite the achievement
    HYUFD will probably still be telling us she'll outlast Thatcher as she comes out to announce her resignation.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525

    If the gap is as big as 9% the majority is likely to be significantly greater than 64.

    The more the third party vote decays, the more irrelevant tactical voting becomes, because the third parties typically have few voters available to lend in most constituencies, and the surviving third party voters know their candidate hasn't a prayer and will mostly be sticking to their guns because of conviction.

    Save for the small handful of seats in which the Lib Dems, Plaid and the Greens are competitive in England and Wales (the dozen they hold, plus perhaps another dozen or so realistic targets,) this is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour now. Scotland, of course, is a bit of a law unto itself nowadays.
    I think that the extra 2.5% difference in the CON/LAB from last time is not so huge that it make a big increase in the Tory seats.
    Indeed when I put into the Election Calculus model with a SNP41C29LAB21LD8 split for Scotland I got this result for the Tories with slightly different numbers for the rest.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538

    We now know where Labour are getting that +5 in that Kantar poll. From the LDs and the Greens....squeezing the smaller parties.

    Music to my ears.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,357
    If Corbyn does just do it, with the Tories on 300, he isn't going to be able to do very much, and will be highly vulnerable to ambushes in the HoC.

    Of course, conversely, that could work against the Tories further if they try and be too clever and "obstruct" his agenda.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,132
    Chameleon said:

    Well that's not really a kaboom.
    It is for the Tories. Especially if the LibDem vote is actually up where it matters and down everywhere else.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    "Kaboom" from a pollster who has just given a final poll with a Conservative lead of 12 is unlikely to be uncongenial to Conservatives.
This discussion has been closed.