ComRes also produced a second projection, reallocating "don’t know" voters on the basis of preferred prime minister, in which the Conservative lead rises to 12 points, on 46 per cent, compared with Labour’s 34 per cent
Which raises Baxter maj from 74 to 102 if all other numbers same: which they can't be because 2% must come from somewhere.
But where are they located? A lot are apparently in the cities, which are mostly already safe LAB. But if they were instead uniformly distributed...
I'd imagine young people are fairly uniformly distributed among the population as a whole. To a first approximation, anyhow.
Yeah, but the argument is that a lot of them then relocate to the university towns. But that kind of works against LAB, since cities are already LAB stronghold. So watching all these enthusiastic Corbyn-supporting students, if they are all registered to vote in their uni city, the impact they can have must be reduced.
I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.
Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?
Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
Why will it matter?
75% or so of seats won't change hands in any circumstances so any increase in the 18-24 vote can make a difference only if in marginals and mostly the same way.
I am far from sure 18-year-old Corbynistas understand the concept of marginals or indeed FPTP or indeed registering to vote.
18-24 turnout in 2015 was 43%. If that goes to say 70%, that's another 1.5m voters. But not all with break for LAB, some will go to CON, greens etc. But, still, giving LAB benefit of doubt, there could be an approx 1m to 1.2m extra LAB voters. But where are they located? A lot are apparently in the cities, which are mostly already safe LAB. But if they were instead uniformly distributed, then I estimate that could be swing of 25 to 30 seats (eg, CON -12 LAB +12). Significant, but likely not enough to counter the larger voter migration, which is UKIP to CON.
I think turnout among 18-24 year olds could hit 55% or so, compared to about 66% overall. I think it could only get to 70% if overall turnout was approaching 80% (we got 78% in 1992).
Well, in the YouGuv models, they do take high numbers, 70%, even over 80% (this is for the youth turnout). They are basing it on the youth themselves saying they intend to vote. But ofcourse whether they actually do is entirely something else.
Just to say it again, you need to distinguish between the individual YouGov polls and the big YouGov model. The big model isn't based on self-reported likelihood to vote: "Turnout is assessed on voters’ demographics and is based on analysis from 2010 and 2015 British Election Study data." https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougovs-election-model/
But where are they located? A lot are apparently in the cities, which are mostly already safe LAB. But if they were instead uniformly distributed...
I'd imagine young people are fairly uniformly distributed among the population as a whole. To a first approximation, anyhow.
and the next band of 25-34 are equally important, and also fairly evenly spread.
They exclude the student cohort though, and do include a lot of young professionals, who are getting their first taste of paying tax, saving for a mortgage. I'm not sure the split between CON & LAB would be as drastic in the 18-24, but probably a benefit for LAB overall.
I know I shouldn't feed the trolls, but this is precisely the kind of attitude I see from my Corbynite chums on Facebook
Really? I've genuinely been surprised this time at the number of my "normal" Facebook friends who are openly supporting Corbyn but in a rather gentle, mild, non-confrontational manner. I don't think I've seen any of them share Labour material in previous elections: I'd had most of them down as generic centrists, a long way from Corbyn. Just anecdata, of course, but he really does seem to have broken through. (And I'm early 40s so this isn't a "youth vote" thing.)
The other surprise, for me, is the amount of tactical voting that's going on; and that's why I'm slightly bullish about the Lib Dems' prospects in the more affluent, Europhile seats.
It's a small but vocal minority. The thing is, for them it really is 'you are scum if you vote Tory, you are a traitor, etc' as well as the more passive aggressive things like putting up pictures of defaced Conservative billboards with 'lol' style comments.
I've debated people from candidates to activists to journalists who all support Labour and they are usually very well educated, caring people. But they aren't the ones posting 'Tory Scum out, I will un-friend you if you express support for the Conservatives' several times a day.
You genuinely feel like if you are voting Conservative it's best to keep your head down and not attract attention, which is why I think the shy Tory vote might be even larger this time round than it was in 2015.
It really does feel like if you are under 35 (I'm on the cusp) then you can forget about expressing Conservative views either on social media or in person, unless you're already pretty sure you're in safe company.
Thankfully channel 4 have reported that Corbyn was in weaver vale
Tories on this dishonest blog were trying to create lies and a narrative saying he was in safe runcorn seats.
Fear will always defeat hope because we live in a country full of selfish people who put themselves first and enjoy bullying people who don't have things.
The fact people on this site like esther mcvey says everything - this was a woman that kicked disabled people while they were down and led people to suicide.
Her reward a safe tory seat in tatton. DISGUSTING.
So will we next be seeing you in 5 years time after tomorrow night? Would you like to add to the PB folklore by boasting about how a certain part of Labour's game is going to win Corbyn the day? The traditional choice is the ground game, but I'll leave it up to you.
We have, but we're also getting another in the morning.
From their prelim numbers with the 12% lead:
We should note that ICM continues to interview, aiming for another c.500 interviews by the end of the day. The numbers might change, but we would not expect them to do so by much.
This election is making me feel genuinely sad, for whoever wins tomorrow, I feel like they are both the poorest candidates put forward by either major party in my (admittedly short) lifetime. My only hope of consolation is for the Limp Dems to come sub-10 seats, in which case I'll be crying into my mounds of money.
I predicted 124 at the start of May, although my forecast for the Tories is technically slightly different to that of Mr Warren as he appears to include Mr Speaker in the Conservative total of 387, whereas I estimated the Tories at 387 excluding Bercow.
The main difference between our estimates is for the Lib Dems, where I have been significantly more optimistic (thus weighing down on the Labour and SNP totals a tad.) Of course, this chap is somewhat more learned in these matters than I am - and if his estimate is right then I'll take the Conservative landslide, and not feel all that disappointed about the Lib Dems being pulverised...
No sympathy for liberal democrats
They did the deal of the century with the devil and they destroyed their party by giving the tories power.
269 comments in 3 or 4 days - how many do you have to do before 10.00 pm tomorrow to fulfil your contract, 500 ?
The YouGov model still really worries me, if they are proven to be geniuses, but my gut is about as steady as it ever gets right now.
It is the future of polling, but for now it tragically, and emphatically fails the SISO test (as do most polls these days...)
Most of the cause of the SISO problem for pollsters is that most 'normal' people don't fill out online surveys. The ones that fill out political surveys are by their nature overly politically engaged.
This caused at the beginning of the campaign more engaged tories confident and hoping to wipe out Corbyn. while after the manifestos they were less confident and engaged and the labour voters were more confident and more engaged. I doubt that most of the 'normal' voters have changed their mind, it's just that the people who complete the surveys have been more or less engaged.
Net gains would be a terrific result after their campaign. Or the Tories and Labour are having a much worse time than it seems.
Or it might simply be a result of a very targeted and efficient ground game in a small number of seats, with gains in ultra-Remain areas and a few isolated pockets in Scotland outweighing the expected losses to the Conservatives?
That's what I assumed would happen before the Lib Dems started sliding again in the polls, and - given that said polls are just one piece of evidence that we should be considering - I see no particular reason to change my mind now.
Then again, perhaps Tim Farron will have to content himself with being second-best in Westmorland, but still more popular than a Fish Finger?
I don't think it will be a huge surprise if Tories do crap in London.
Although as I said before there's only one seat they can lose to Labour — Croydon Central — unless they do really badly and the Barnet constituencies come into play.
18-24 turnout in 2015 was 43%. If that goes to say 70%, that's another 1.5m voters. But not all with break for LAB, some will go to CON, greens etc. But, still, giving LAB benefit of doubt, there could be an approx 1m to 1.2m extra LAB voters. But where are they located? A lot are apparently in the cities, which are mostly already safe LAB. But if they were instead uniformly distributed, then I estimate that could be swing of 25 to 30 seats (eg, CON -12 LAB +12). Significant, but likely not enough to counter the larger voter migration, which is UKIP to CON.
The above sets out why I think it won't happen or won't matter.
- 43% will not become 70% - If it did the 70% would not necessarily break the same way as the 43% - Anything that energises votes for the left will just as likely energise opposing votes just as much - And the latter unlike the former really do vote - The distribution is unlikely to be uniform because the electorate isn't - To make a difference, a "new" vote has both to be in a non-safe seat, and not cancelled by an opposing "new" vote - Local factors are likely to swamp any effects - so in constituencies like Hendon and Finchley the votes of a few 18 year old Corbynistas are going to be blown away by the votes of the 77% of Jewish voters who will be supporting the Tories; and as you say there are the UKIP switchers
I expect something like 46:35 or 45:33 and a 100-seat majority.
I think if the 43% becomes 70% (unlikely) or say 60% (conceivable), then they will strongly split for LAB. It follows from the LAB policies of EMA, of free student fees, of building houses etc. Even Momentum is pulling in lots of young activists, and they then feed into universities. I think local factors wont affect many seats, how many of the 650 have strong local factors? I bet its not even 20.
He could of course just be talking about Yougov/Survation.
Would be hilarious if Yougov suddenly swung to a 10 point Tory lead or something.
That's what I was wondering. There's absolutely huge, saturation-level anti-Corbyn coverage in the taboids at the moment - 15 page IRA-Corbo souvenir cut-out-and-keep pullouts, in the Sun and Mail, for instance.
I don't think it will be a huge surprise if Tories do crap in London.
Although as I said before there's only one seat they can lose to Labour — Croydon Central — unless they do really badly and the Barnet constituencies come into play.
But we could fail to win C&W (which should be a gimme) and lose one or more of Kingston, Twickenham and Richmond.
But where are they located? A lot are apparently in the cities, which are mostly already safe LAB. But if they were instead uniformly distributed...
I'd imagine young people are fairly uniformly distributed among the population as a whole. To a first approximation, anyhow.
Yeah, but the argument is that a lot of them then relocate to the university towns. But that kind of works against LAB, since cities are already LAB stronghold. So watching all these enthusiastic Corbyn-supporting students, if they are all registered to vote in their uni city, the impact they can have must be reduced.
Yes, but if we're talking about a 7-year age range (18-24), and people normally being at university for 3 years, with a participation rate of 40-50%, then the percentage of that age group at university will be only about 20%, which is why I said uniform to a first approximation.
And then, there are now 130 universities in the UK, so even if all of those 20% who are students vote where they are studying, and we assume the students at each university all live in the same constituency, that's shared out among about a fifth of the constituencies, and therefore not highly concentrated in just a few old-style university towns.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
They were pretty confident about not moving backwards too far in 2015 as well, weren't they?
I saw Farron on the news (in Bath, note) sying that the LDs would be the only opposition party to gain seats. I guess he could be right.
He could be, but after their campaign I would be very surprised. Also, quick note on Bath more generally, it should be one of the first seats to fall to the LDs, but Bath Spa has already broken up, and Bath uni doesn't do humanities, and science students tend to be much less corbynista from my limited experience.
I don't think it will be a huge surprise if Tories do crap in London.
I think a crap performance would be a surprise, because the vote is likely to be so heavily polarised between the inner and outer boroughs. IIRC, five of the latter voted to leave the EU, for starters.
We should probably, as in 2015, be talking of a disproportionately strong Labour performance in London as a whole, rather than a serious Conservative reverse. It's not out of the question that the Conservatives could make a net gain of one or two seats in London on the night, even if Zac Goldsmith falls short again and they shed both Twickenham and Kingston to the LDs.
They were pretty confident about not moving backwards too far in 2015 as well, weren't they?
I saw Farron on the news (in Bath, note) sying that the LDs would be the only opposition party to gain seats. I guess he could be right.
He could be, but after their campaign I would be very surprised. Also, quick note on Bath more generally, it should be one of the first seats to fall to the LDs, but Bath Spa has already broken up, and Bath uni doesn't do humanities, and science students tend to be much less corbynista from my limited experience.
They were pretty confident about not moving backwards too far in 2015 as well, weren't they?
I saw Farron on the news (in Bath, note) sying that the LDs would be the only opposition party to gain seats. I guess he could be right.
He could be, but after their campaign I would be very surprised. Also, quick note on Bath more generally, it should be one of the first seats to fall to the LDs, but Bath Spa has already broken up, and Bath uni doesn't do humanities, and science students tend to be much less corbynista from my limited experience.
Interesting. This must be assuming no significant surge of a LAB youth vote. My rough estimate gives of seats : CON 350, LAB 220 (maj 50) ... but +-10 either way.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
Net gains would be a terrific result after their campaign. Or the Tories and Labour are having a much worse time than it seems.
Or it might simply be a result of a very targeted and efficient ground game in a small number of seats, with gains in ultra-Remain areas and a few isolated pockets in Scotland outweighing the expected losses to the Conservatives?
That's what I assumed would happen before the Lib Dems started sliding again in the polls, and - given that said polls are just one piece of evidence that we should be considering - I see no particular reason to change my mind now.
Then again, perhaps Tim Farron will have to content himself with being second-best in Westmorland, but still more popular than a Fish Finger?
Will be happy if the lib Dems stand still, some of the best predictions I've seen are 5-18. But we won't know till tommorow
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
As normal, when I'm drinking, a bottle of New Zealand Marlborough Bay Sauvignon Blanc
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
A whisky at 9.55, to steady the nerves. If the exit poll is shows sufficient grounds for a sigh of relief, a slightly more expensive whisky. Then maybe onto a cheap lager for the long haul. Otherwise, several glasses of cheap whisky, then bed.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
O you poor man, having to get rid of a whole cellar of wine in 6 weeks!
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I don't drink but my dad is opening a bottle of Port to have with some cheese and biscuits.
You genuinely feel like if you are voting Conservative it's best to keep your head down and not attract attention, which is why I think the shy Tory vote might be even larger this time round than it was in 2015.
It really does feel like if you are under 35 (I'm on the cusp) then you can forget about expressing Conservative views either on social media or in person, unless you're already pretty sure you're in safe company.
Is the widening gap between the parties and the age divide making politics more partisan, do you think? I wouldn't really want friends who are abusive to anyone on social media, and I don't know anyone who is (apart from SeanT, of course, and we don't take him too seriously). But I come from a background which put tolerance above political belief - my Tory parents were relaxed about my Communist views and would pick up the Daily Worker for me; in turn I never hassled them and urged my dad to vote agains me to be true to his beliefs when I first stood for Parliament.
It seems odd that with less party identification than ever there should be more vituperation. But is it really worse than usual?
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
coffee, water and some cheap red bull clone for me.
Net gains would be a terrific result after their campaign. Or the Tories and Labour are having a much worse time than it seems.
They are going to lose C&W though....so it is just a swap really
I thought we'd gain it easily, but my understanding is that the local Conservative campaign is a little worried. Apparently, a lot of the Labour vote is evaporating, and it's not coming to us.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
coffee, water and some cheap red bull clone for me.
Your shits will be like rusty drain water on Friday!!!
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
If by some miracle my Vauxhall bet comes in I will accept payment in wine.
I am just saddened that no party offers me much hope of the sort of country I would wish to see. It all looks like a personal scramble to be elected. That seems to be the priority. I have no problem with anyone who has thought about the issues - and now knows which way to vote. But I have given a great deal of consideration - and I haven't found a party to vote for.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
coffee, water and some cheap red bull clone for me.
Have a range on offer but will stick with beer, I'm more worried that I don't like popcorn
They were pretty confident about not moving backwards too far in 2015 as well, weren't they?
I saw Farron on the news (in Bath, note) sying that the LDs would be the only opposition party to gain seats. I guess he could be right.
He could be, but after their campaign I would be very surprised. Also, quick note on Bath more generally, it should be one of the first seats to fall to the LDs, but Bath Spa has already broken up, and Bath uni doesn't do humanities, and science students tend to be much less corbynista from my limited experience.
Bath uni students have gone too.
I have a small stake on the Lib Dems in Bath, but expecting to lose. That said, I'm not overly bothered about the students. I reckon they'd probably vote Labour anyway. I think it's ordinary voters who are more likely to vote Lib Dem just as in South West London.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I assume you now have an indepth knowledge of local LA politics?
Every election has it's weird anomalies and this is weirder than most. I'm wondering which constituency will throw up the most wildly improbable-seeming Corbynite gain. Perhaps there's somewhere that superficially looks Tory but isn't. Demographic breakdowns might be helpful.
It will be quite funny if all the media noise about the campaign turns out to be, err, just noise.
In other words, the surge being ethereal, except in the cities and university towns, where the media and youth shout the loudest for Corbyn, the Lib Dems doing ok off the back of an anti-Brexit stance, and Theresa May doing just about as well as she originally expected in Labour seats, with the manifesto fall-out massively overblown.
Maybe it's the broadcast media as well as the print media that matter little anymore.
Thanks to Buzzfeed we all now know where the Tories magic money tree from the hedge funds is going-on "dark",sublminal ads on Facebook because they think they have found a loophole in the regs.The Tories must declare these dark arts on election expenditure.It looks like gerry-mandering to me as does Plymouth Sutton and Devonport losing their postal votes in a key marginal.If the Tories cannot win they will cheat,as bad as diving in the penalty area.
I am just saddened that no party offers me much hope of the sort of country I would wish to see. It all looks like a personal scramble to be elected. That seems to be the priority. I have no problem with anyone who has thought about the issues - and now knows which way to vote. But I have given a great deal of consideration - and I haven't found a party to vote for.
I'm voting for 'The Radical Party', I don't really believe in what they stand for, but I want to encourage more people to stand in safe seats, so hopefully I'll push him over the 5% mark. If there's a candidate outside the big 5 on your ballot paper tomorrow, I encourage you to do the same.
You genuinely feel like if you are voting Conservative it's best to keep your head down and not attract attention, which is why I think the shy Tory vote might be even larger this time round than it was in 2015.
It really does feel like if you are under 35 (I'm on the cusp) then you can forget about expressing Conservative views either on social media or in person, unless you're already pretty sure you're in safe company.
Is the widening gap between the parties and the age divide making politics more partisan, do you think? I wouldn't really want friends who are abusive to anyone on social media, and I don't know anyone who is (apart from SeanT, of course, and we don't take him too seriously). But I come from a background which put tolerance above political belief - my Tory parents were relaxed about my Communist views and would pick up the Daily Worker for me; in turn I never hassled them and urged my dad to vote agains me to be true to his beliefs when I first stood for Parliament.
It seems odd that with less party identification than ever there should be more vituperation. But is it really worse than usual?
My facebook newsfeed is full of vitriolic lefties. There is certainly nothing to be gained by engaging with them or by saying anything vaguely supportive of the Conservative Party. OTOH, the bulk of the vitriol this time appears to be towards Theresa May, rather than all Tory voters. Or maybe I've just blocked the worst offenders.
I am just saddened that no party offers me much hope of the sort of country I would wish to see. It all looks like a personal scramble to be elected. That seems to be the priority. I have no problem with anyone who has thought about the issues - and now knows which way to vote. But I have given a great deal of consideration - and I haven't found a party to vote for.
I only ever vote for the least bad party, and no parliamentary election candidate I have voted for has ever won, a record I expect to maintain.
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I've got a bottle of English Whisky I'm planning on getting through.
I don't think it will be a huge surprise if Tories do crap in London.
Although as I said before there's only one seat they can lose to Labour — Croydon Central — unless they do really badly and the Barnet constituencies come into play.
But we could fail to win C&W (which should be a gimme) and lose one or more of Kingston, Twickenham and Richmond.
Net gains would be a terrific result after their campaign. Or the Tories and Labour are having a much worse time than it seems.
They are going to lose C&W though....so it is just a swap really
I thought we'd gain it easily, but my understanding is that the local Conservative campaign is a little worried. Apparently, a lot of the Labour vote is evaporating, and it's not coming to us.
Interesting young Robert.
First post - ".. we could fail .." Second post - "I thought we'd gain .."
Comments
Both Scrapheap and I have been polled by them, and I think so has Roger.
I have been gone too long....
"Turnout is assessed on voters’ demographics and is based on analysis from 2010 and 2015 British Election Study data."
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/31/yougovs-election-model/
I've debated people from candidates to activists to journalists who all support Labour and they are usually very well educated, caring people. But they aren't the ones posting 'Tory Scum out, I will un-friend you if you express support for the Conservatives' several times a day.
You genuinely feel like if you are voting Conservative it's best to keep your head down and not attract attention, which is why I think the shy Tory vote might be even larger this time round than it was in 2015.
It really does feel like if you are under 35 (I'm on the cusp) then you can forget about expressing Conservative views either on social media or in person, unless you're already pretty sure you're in safe company.
We should note that ICM continues to interview, aiming for another c.500 interviews by the end of the day. The numbers might change, but we would not expect them to do so by much.
http://natcen.ac.uk/blog/5-key-election-findings-from-the-natcen-panel
Originally thought Zack would be back here.
This caused at the beginning of the campaign more engaged tories confident and hoping to wipe out Corbyn. while after the manifestos they were less confident and engaged and the labour voters were more confident and more engaged. I doubt that most of the 'normal' voters have changed their mind, it's just that the people who complete the surveys have been more or less engaged.
That's what I assumed would happen before the Lib Dems started sliding again in the polls, and - given that said polls are just one piece of evidence that we should be considering - I see no particular reason to change my mind now.
Then again, perhaps Tim Farron will have to content himself with being second-best in Westmorland, but still more popular than a Fish Finger?
And then, there are now 130 universities in the UK, so even if all of those 20% who are students vote where they are studying, and we assume the students at each university all live in the same constituency, that's shared out among about a fifth of the constituencies, and therefore not highly concentrated in just a few old-style university towns.
What's everyone drinking?
I'm wondering about opening a bottle of Ridge Montebello* at 9:50pm tomorrow evening. I'll probably finish it about two, and move onto the whisky before crashing out at four.
* I wouldn't normally drink such nice wine on my own. But we're moving to LA in about six weeks and I have a whole cellar to get through.
I put him down as a negative for the future of the party.
We should probably, as in 2015, be talking of a disproportionately strong Labour performance in London as a whole, rather than a serious Conservative reverse. It's not out of the question that the Conservatives could make a net gain of one or two seats in London on the night, even if Zac Goldsmith falls short again and they shed both Twickenham and Kingston to the LDs.
I think Bath stays Blue this time around.
Edit - As soon as I get back from Germany ~ 10 pm
I have no love for Sarah Olney. But I simply couldn't vote for Zac.
If the exit poll is shows sufficient grounds for a sigh of relief, a slightly more expensive whisky. Then maybe onto a cheap lager for the long haul.
Otherwise, several glasses of cheap whisky, then bed.
It seems odd that with less party identification than ever there should be more vituperation. But is it really worse than usual?
Perhaps there's somewhere that superficially looks Tory but isn't. Demographic breakdowns might be helpful.
Might that suggest Con under threat of several losses to LDs - given there are many, many easier targets.
In other words, the surge being ethereal, except in the cities and university towns, where the media and youth shout the loudest for Corbyn, the Lib Dems doing ok off the back of an anti-Brexit stance, and Theresa May doing just about as well as she originally expected in Labour seats, with the manifesto fall-out massively overblown.
Maybe it's the broadcast media as well as the print media that matter little anymore.
First post - ".. we could fail .."
Second post - "I thought we'd gain .."
Are you a fully fledged baby muncher now ?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-GrhTDiUlA