Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Precisely.
And the point of the past six weeks was... ?
To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.
As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you . It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!
Paraphrasing, the mojo for Labour used to be that a leader with left-wing views had to pretend to be more moderate. But the new mojo is for a moderate leader to pretend to be more left-wing?
I'd say that a lot of Labour moderates are scared soft-leftists. Corbyn has taught them they do not need to be frightened anymore!!
1. Not keeping its promise to change the voting system, when it had the chance. 2. Not coming out in support of a fairer system, even now.
Labour won't back PR because, providing that the party doesn't definitively rupture through an outbreak of civil war after a Tory landslide, it knows that it will endure as the principal Opposition, and therefore it is also confident that it will eventually wield power again on its own...Even if the Tories govern very well, eventually people will tire of them. Arguably, Labour just has to rebuild quietly and wait for this to happen so that it can benefit from the swing back, and take the levers of Government for itself.
Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Precisely.
And the point of the past six weeks was... ?
To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.
As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you . It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!
Paraphrasing, the mojo for Labour used to be that a leader with left-wing views had to pretend to be more moderate. But the new mojo is for a moderate leader to pretend to be more left-wing?
I'd say that a lot of Labour moderates are scared soft-leftists. Corbyn has taught them they do not need to be frightened anymore!!
Maybe the manifesto was NOT radical enough? If they had been more bold maybe the result would have been better for Labour than it will be. I am sure Corbyn and his supporters will advocate an even more radical alternative for GE2022!
I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.
Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?
Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
Whats the answer anybody?
As per previous discussions, you either believe a) younger voters wil oversleep as usual, turnout no different to 2015. Kudos to ICM/Comres, or b) younger voters will turn out in higher numbers than usual, at least half way towards YG/Survation. Tomorrow we'll know.
Anecdotal reports from SW London for the LibDems are quite positive.
They're done for then.
Anything other than a LibDem anecdote including a mass electoral facial hair epidemic (including the women voters) and punters flocking to the polls in sandals must be regarded as an admission of total failure in a seat.
My final forecast is Tory majority 108. I had 128 at the start of the campaign.
May's had an absolute stinker so won't make the gains from Labour I'd expected. She emerges as a hugely diminished figure personally and Tory MPs will feel like Tory MPs, not May MPs as she wanted. But the Lib Dem campaign was fundamentally misconceived (they who appeared until late on to be fighting the wrong election on the wrong policy) so she won't make losses to them (beyond the far margins at least). Corbyn had a good campaign, although not a great one - his big advantage was being grossly underestimated and looking good simply by not looking awful.
It's all been unexpectedly interesting, and my confidence in my own prediction is much lower than it was at the start. But I'm going on the position from my limited perspective on the ground. It all looks much more like the froth blowing off May than something more fundamental. I definitely don't get the Maygasm from the early campaign - the breathless 50-somethings with their cult-like chanting of, "we must do this for Dear Theresa..." Indeed, enthusiasm for the woman has fallen off a cliff. BUT... nor do I get anything to say Survation is right and ICM wrong.
I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.
Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?
Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
Whats the answer anybody?
It's a bit unknowable. Maybe 18-24s will turn out a bit more but inefficiently and not in enough numbers to be decisive is I think the consensus around here but happy to be corrected.
I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.
Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?
Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
Whats the answer anybody?
As per previous discussions, you either believe a) younger voters wil oversleep as usual, turnout no different to 2015. Kudos to ICM/Comres, or b) younger voters will turn out in higher numbers than usual, at least half way towards YG/Survation. Tomorrow we'll know.
Thanks, That gives me some hope they are overstating lead a bit.
1. Not keeping its promise to change the voting system, when it had the chance. 2. Not coming out in support of a fairer system, even now.
Labour won't back PR because, providing that the party doesn't definitively rupture through an outbreak of civil war after a Tory landslide, it knows that it will endure as the principal Opposition, and therefore it is also confident that it will eventually wield power again on its own. The worst that it might have to do is rely on the SNP to provide confidence and supply at some point along the way.
Even if the Tories govern very well, eventually people will tire of them. Arguably, Labour just has to rebuild quietly and wait for this to happen so that it can benefit from the swing back, and take the levers of Government for itself. And certainly, if we are returning to a two-party system in most of the country, one can understand why it would take this attitude: historical precedent suggests that, with the smaller players out of the way, relatively modest shifts in public opinion can first demolish large Government majorities, and then put Oppositions into power.
The Jenkins Commission came up with AV (with a small number of additional members) as AV is probably the only electoral system that would be better for Labour than the present voting system. But because it would also have helped the Lib Dems it had to die.
We have seen a number of other centre-left parties do very badly in proportional systems across Europe. If we had a proportional system in the UK then I'm pretty sure the same would have happened here.
Just an idea for the Tories. Introduce STV and destroy the Labour party.
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators? Well for what it's worth whilst we have wasted six weeks squabbling amongst ourselves the EU will have decided what the deal is, taking into account we could walk away. There maybe things on the fringes that might be negotiable but of no major import. Given that the argument that having a referendum on the deal with the three options is giving our strengh away is rubbish. I want to see people actually explaining the implications of each choice, especially those who believe no deal is better than a bad deal. The UK electorate is being led, blindfolded, believing we will negotiate. No let the EU put their deal on the table and then give the people the right to decide. If we can do this in six months rather than 18 it will be better for us all whatever the british people decide
I wonder how large the shy tory / lib dem effect is in the young. What 18-24 is going to admit voting tory or lib dem especially in the face of seemingly massive social media support for jezza.
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?
Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.
On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.
Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?
Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
Whats the answer anybody?
As per previous discussions, you either believe a) younger voters wil oversleep as usual, turnout no different to 2015. Kudos to ICM/Comres, or b) younger voters will turn out in higher numbers than usual, at least half way towards YG/Survation. Tomorrow we'll know.
Option C: turnout increases, but includes more previous non-voters who were energised by the EU referendum - and, therefore, rather a lot of Leave backers who go to register support for Theresa May.
We're all just guessing, aren't we? But at least it's almost time to start discovering the truth of it all...
Labour are in deep trouble everywhere. Places you would not think might fall look as though they will to me. I am half tempted to put some money on a big tory majority with Betfair but I had my fingers burnt before with bets so maybe I will not!
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators? Well for what it's worth whilst we have wasted six weeks squabbling amongst ourselves the EU will have decided what the deal is, taking into account we could walk away. There maybe things on the fringes that might be negotiable but of no major import. Given that the argument that having a referendum on the deal with the three options is giving our strengh away is rubbish. I want to see people actually explaining the implications of each choice, especially those who believe no deal is better than a bad deal. The UK electorate is being led, blindfolded, believing we will negotiate. No let the EU put their deal on the table and then give the people the right to decide. If we can do this in six months rather than 18 it will be better for us all whatever the british people decide
We are told that No deal is better than a bad deal, but no real detail of what either means. For a supposed Brexit election that is pisspoor. The Tory manifesto gives the clearest view of May's vision, and grim and nonspecific in equal parts.
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators? Well for what it's worth whilst we have wasted six weeks squabbling amongst ourselves the EU will have decided what the deal is, taking into account we could walk away. There maybe things on the fringes that might be negotiable but of no major import. Given that the argument that having a referendum on the deal with the three options is giving our strengh away is rubbish. I want to see people actually explaining the implications of each choice, especially those who believe no deal is better than a bad deal. The UK electorate is being led, blindfolded, believing we will negotiate. No let the EU put their deal on the table and then give the people the right to decide. If we can do this in six months rather than 18 it will be better for us all whatever the british people decide
There's not a bad argument that the whole election has been one big act of procrastination by Tezza.
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?
Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.
On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
The best Brexit negotiators would be
Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators? Well for what it's worth whilst we have wasted six weeks squabbling amongst ourselves the EU will have decided what the deal is, taking into account we could walk away. There maybe things on the fringes that might be negotiable but of no major import. Given that the argument that having a referendum on the deal with the three options is giving our strengh away is rubbish. I want to see people actually explaining the implications of each choice, especially those who believe no deal is better than a bad deal. The UK electorate is being led, blindfolded, believing we will negotiate. No let the EU put their deal on the table and then give the people the right to decide. If we can do this in six months rather than 18 it will be better for us all whatever the british people decide
Our negotiating position is so weak, Nicho, that it matters little who leads for us.
I suspect Labour would do slightly better because they didn't take us out of Europe, they haven't pissed off our former partners in the EU, and generally Europe tends to be a bit more 'Statist' than us. But frankly, I don't think it matters much who wins.
Mr. 0999, tempted to suggest 1.83 each on Alonso and Vandoorne to not be classified in Canada... [I did genuinely consider that myself but requires both to occur and it's possible one of them might finish].
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?
Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.
On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
The best Brexit negotiators would be
Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
Labour are in deep trouble everywhere. Places you would not think might fall look as though they will to me. I am half tempted to put some money on a big tory majority with Betfair but I had my fingers burnt before with bets so maybe I will not!
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?
Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.
On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
The best Brexit negotiators would be
Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
and how much for Andy Carroll from whom?
Andy Carroll scored a last minute winner in an FA Cup semi final against Everton, worth every penny.
I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.
Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?
Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
Why will it matter?
75% or so of seats won't change hands in any circumstances so any increase in the 18-24 vote can make a difference only if in marginals and mostly the same way.
I am far from sure 18-year-old Corbynistas understand the concept of marginals or indeed FPTP or indeed registering to vote.
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
In norwich south a green surge, coupled with the lack of a UKIP candidate could see the tories come through the middle to win. not unheard of.
All political parties would be wise to do some serious thinking about new policies for the modern world, especially a post brexit one.
How to.deal with rise of machine learning, an aging population etc etc etc
Sadly there are no votes in thinking for the long term.
Raised this issue several days ago while I'm 63 and retired what a on offer for under 40's is a disgrace in terms of the real issues facing their future. But oldies know best because they have more life experience!
Jezza "wins" the campaign... Tezza gets a landslide
Precisely.
And the point of the past six weeks was... ?
To ensure another 5 years of Corbyn leadership in the Labour party and their consequent defeat in 2022.
Even thougyh he's deemed to have "won" the campaign Jezza can't survive a "landslide" result though can he?
I do not believe so. It would demonstrate that his apparent success in the campaign was all froth and nonsense, not the positive it appears to be at present. A landslide leads to him going, anything else means he can hold on to be dead safe, from worst to best.
To be fair, he has demonstrated that, since the Tory tabloids can be trusted to attack you brutally whatever you have to say, you are actually no worse off advocating a genuinely socialist agenda. To his followers within the party, that will be the point proved from this campaign, whether our SO likes it or not.
As I posted earlier today, Corbyn has taught moderates some very valuable lessons about pitching a positive message and not living in fear of the Tory tabloids - they are going to get you . It could even be that he has learned something similar on his travels around the country!
Paraphrasing, the mojo for Labour used to be that a leader with left-wing views had to pretend to be more moderate. But the new mojo is for a moderate leader to pretend to be more left-wing?
I'd say that a lot of Labour moderates are scared soft-leftists. Corbyn has taught them they do not need to be frightened anymore!!
Maybe the manifesto was NOT radical enough? If they had been more bold maybe the result would have been better for Labour than it will be. I am sure Corbyn and his supporters will advocate an even more radical alternative for GE2022!
Yes, that's what will lose them the 2021/22 election as well. It was the Wedgwood-Benn argument; we lost because we weren't left-wing enough.
A massive fix for us poll junkies before then going cold turkey for a few weeks.
There'll be the LibDem leadership contest to look forward to.
The 6 of them can surely just roll a dice for that?
6? An optimist I see.
In all seriousness, unless they unexpectedly get at the upper end of expectations, closer to 15 than 5, they should go for someone who managed to gain a seat - which means Jo Swinson, whoever is standing in Edinburgh West (assuming either manages a win) or Vince Cable, if he is lucky.
Labour are in deep trouble everywhere. Places you would not think might fall look as though they will to me. I am half tempted to put some money on a big tory majority with Betfair but I had my fingers burnt before with bets so maybe I will not!
I dont think they are
No indeed.
They may hold two of their four seats in Staffordshire.
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
If you go with the YouGov model, that's free money. But it's a bit of a big "if". Bristol West is a bit of a weird seat, and they have a solid candidate. Sheffield Central looks too big an ask, but who knows if something funny may happen on a low turnout. Norwich South looks unlikely but they will doubtless be fighting it quite hard.
My worry about it as a bet to really pile onto is that it's not like Macron going into second round in France, where unless the polls were massively wrong nationwide, you were fine. With this one, you just need something a bit odd to be going on under the radar in one of several seats (and seats are quite small really) to be badly burnt.
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
I've had my biggest ever political bet on the majority... and still don't think I had enough on!
I know -we only need a maj of 2 and literally no one, not even uber-Owen Jones is hoping for better than that for Labour, then it's been so tempting... I've got a few grand on it but would have done more.
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
Certainly not Norwich, but Bristol is not implausible.
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
Certainly not Norwich, but Bristol is not implausible.
Wouldn't they have to topple Kerry McCarthy to take a seat there though? Who is vegan, a climate change campaigner, in effect a Green in all but name (as well as being, in my experience, a rather nasty piece of work).
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?
Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.
On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
The best Brexit negotiators would be
Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
LOL!
To be serious there is no way you can go in with rabid remainers negotiating on our behalf. If May moves Davis aside and appoints Ben Gummer then expect a backbench revolt in the first week of the parliament.
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
If you go with the YouGov model, that's free money. But it's a bit of a big "if". Bristol West is a bit of a weird seat, and they have a solid candidate. Sheffield Central looks too big an ask, but who knows if something funny may happen on a low turnout. Norwich South looks unlikely but they will doubtless be fighting it quite hard.
My worry about it as a bet to really pile onto is that it's not like Macron going into second round in France, where unless the polls were massively wrong nationwide, you were fine. With this one, you just need something a bit odd to be going on under the radar in one of several seats (and seats are quite small really) to be badly burnt.
Thanks - I think I'll stick to piling some more on the Cons majority.
I think Turnout in the 18-24 age group is going to be significantly higher than in 2015.
Does ICM take any account of this at all or assume 2015 levels?
Brilliant question which has never been addressed on this website before.
Why will it matter?
75% or so of seats won't change hands in any circumstances so any increase in the 18-24 vote can make a difference only if in marginals and mostly the same way.
I am far from sure 18-year-old Corbynistas understand the concept of marginals or indeed FPTP or indeed registering to vote.
18-24 turnout in 2015 was 43%. If that goes to say 70%, that's another 1.5m voters. But not all with break for LAB, some will go to CON, greens etc. But, still, giving LAB benefit of doubt, there could be an approx 1m to 1.2m extra LAB voters. But where are they located? A lot are apparently in the cities, which are mostly already safe LAB. But if they were instead uniformly distributed, then I estimate that could be swing of 25 to 30 seats (eg, CON -12 LAB +12). Significant, but likely not enough to counter the larger voter migration, which is UKIP to CON.
"For 24 hours, Curtice lives and breathes a general election. As voters head to the polling stations, he is holed up in a top secret location in central London along with a small group of other academics and number crunchers. From early morning, exit poll data compiled at over 100 selected polling stations starts to pour in to the charmless BBC office where the analysis begins. By early afternoon, clear patterns are beginning to emerge, allowing the boffins to start to make more detailed predictions about seats won and lost. At about 2pm, Curtice could make a fair punt at the result but he won’t, yet. There is a small window of time as the polling stations close, before David Dimbleby makes the announcement, and before Curtice steps into the taxi at 10.03pm which will ferry him to the BBC studios at Elsetree to begin a marathon of political commentary through the night, where only he really knows what the exit poll is saying and what it could mean for the country. He also knows that there is that chance (albeit a slim one in the context of his past record) that whatever the exit poll says, he and his team could be the heroes or zeroes of the day when the final tally is realised. But there is little time to ponder. Curtice gets to the studio and the one question on everyone’s lips is ‘who is in and who is out?’ And so it begins."
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
If you go with the YouGov model, that's free money. But it's a bit of a big "if". Bristol West is a bit of a weird seat, and they have a solid candidate. Sheffield Central looks too big an ask, but who knows if something funny may happen on a low turnout. Norwich South looks unlikely but they will doubtless be fighting it quite hard.
My worry about it as a bet to really pile onto is that it's not like Macron going into second round in France, where unless the polls were massively wrong nationwide, you were fine. With this one, you just need something a bit odd to be going on under the radar in one of several seats (and seats are quite small really) to be badly burnt.
Just the 3 bags of sand laying Jez at the moment and not 10 as you're right the polls aren't all in agreement.
Possibly my one and only partisan post. Does anyone actually believe we are electing the best exit negotiators?
Who would be the best? There may not be any choices available that would actually being good.
On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
The best Brexit negotiators would be
Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
LOL!
To be serious there is no way you can go in with rabid remainers negotiating on our behalf. If May moves Davis aside and appoints Ben Gummer then expect a backbench revolt in the first week of the parliament.
Depends, the story was she was going to move Davis to the Foreign Office and Gummer to replace David as Brexit Secretary, in that scenario I'd expect no revolt.
Only if she sacked or demoted Davis and replaced him with Gummer would we see a revolt.
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
Certainly not Norwich, but Bristol is not implausible.
Wouldn't they have to topple Kerry McCarthy to take a seat there though? Who is vegan, a climate change campaigner, in effect a Green in all but name (as well as being, in my experience, a rather nasty piece of work).
Bristol West is the target for the Greens, not Bristol East.
Polls have come to shape the entire political narrative. Without them, there is no political narrative. That's why there is a compulsion to believe polls - even during a period when pollsters have got it spectacularly wrong - EUref, GE 2015 etc. Even I am starting to think the polls might be right, because right now it seems delusional to totally dismiss them. But hey, we could be on course for another polling disaster. If that's the case, then I think those interested in politics must let go of looking too much into polls.
Betfair exchange tightens further.... if only we'd not had 'that' Brexit market-failure.....
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
Green party under 1.5 seats is at 1.21; are there any seats outside of Brighton where their polling is holding up under the Corbyn onslaught? Bristol/Norwich?
Certainly not Norwich, but Bristol is not implausible.
Wouldn't they have to topple Kerry McCarthy to take a seat there though? Who is vegan, a climate change campaigner, in effect a Green in all but name (as well as being, in my experience, a rather nasty piece of work).
Bristol West is the target for the Greens, not Bristol East.
Ah, hadn't realised that. Don't know much about that seat.
As an aside, if Kerry McCarthy were defeated that really would be a split-my-sides moment. But it's not terribly likely to happen.
Comments
Their sports coverage is good.
14-1 was what I got the max £35 and change on....
Come on Ruth!! Bring out the Klaxon.
Anything other than a LibDem anecdote including a mass electoral facial hair epidemic (including the women voters) and punters flocking to the polls in sandals must be regarded as an admission of total failure in a seat.
May's had an absolute stinker so won't make the gains from Labour I'd expected. She emerges as a hugely diminished figure personally and Tory MPs will feel like Tory MPs, not May MPs as she wanted. But the Lib Dem campaign was fundamentally misconceived (they who appeared until late on to be fighting the wrong election on the wrong policy) so she won't make losses to them (beyond the far margins at least). Corbyn had a good campaign, although not a great one - his big advantage was being grossly underestimated and looking good simply by not looking awful.
It's all been unexpectedly interesting, and my confidence in my own prediction is much lower than it was at the start. But I'm going on the position from my limited perspective on the ground. It all looks much more like the froth blowing off May than something more fundamental. I definitely don't get the Maygasm from the early campaign - the breathless 50-somethings with their cult-like chanting of, "we must do this for Dear Theresa..." Indeed, enthusiasm for the woman has fallen off a cliff. BUT... nor do I get anything to say Survation is right and ICM wrong.
We have seen a number of other centre-left parties do very badly in proportional systems across Europe. If we had a proportional system in the UK then I'm pretty sure the same would have happened here.
Just an idea for the Tories. Introduce STV and destroy the Labour party.
42/38/6/4
On the wasted six weeks, I believe that to be the case too, although surely nothing substantive would have been possible until after the German elections anyway? Merkel is critical to any move forward.
We're all just guessing, aren't we? But at least it's almost time to start discovering the truth of it all...
Lord Mandelson, George Osborne, and Newcastle United's Managing Director Lee Charnley, the latter I mean got £30million from Spurs for Moussa Sissoko, that's hallmark of a good deal maker.
1.06 / 1.17 on tory most seats and tory maj
I suspect Labour would do slightly better because they didn't take us out of Europe, they haven't pissed off our former partners in the EU, and generally Europe tends to be a bit more 'Statist' than us. But frankly, I don't think it matters much who wins.
There's a rick between LD's under 10.5 seats and under 10 seats on BF
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100394
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131700323
Shouldn't be more than a ~10% difference in the odds IMO.
75% or so of seats won't change hands in any circumstances so any increase in the 18-24 vote can make a difference only if in marginals and mostly the same way.
I am far from sure 18-year-old Corbynistas understand the concept of marginals or indeed FPTP or indeed registering to vote.
Who knew ?!?!?
In all seriousness, unless they unexpectedly get at the upper end of expectations, closer to 15 than 5, they should go for someone who managed to gain a seat - which means Jo Swinson, whoever is standing in Edinburgh West (assuming either manages a win) or Vince Cable, if he is lucky.
They may hold two of their four seats in Staffordshire.
And then again, they may not.
LDs so screwed.
My worry about it as a bet to really pile onto is that it's not like Macron going into second round in France, where unless the polls were massively wrong nationwide, you were fine. With this one, you just need something a bit odd to be going on under the radar in one of several seats (and seats are quite small really) to be badly burnt.
To be serious there is no way you can go in with rabid remainers negotiating on our behalf. If May moves Davis aside and appoints Ben Gummer then expect a backbench revolt in the first week of the parliament.
http://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/man-behind-numbers-interview-professor-john-curtice
Only if she sacked or demoted Davis and replaced him with Gummer would we see a revolt.
Back in now.
As an aside, if Kerry McCarthy were defeated that really would be a split-my-sides moment. But it's not terribly likely to happen.