politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Breaking the chain. Can the Lib Dems defy history?
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That's poo. Students in Scotland don't have to pay tuition fees and yet things still run and the motorways aren't getting potholed. The rich throughout Britain have got a lot richer in recent decades. If they and their filthy institutions such as the banks gave some of their ill-gotten spoils back, it would be easy for the government to fund tuition fees and mandatory student maintenance grants as they did in the 1970s. It could easily fund proper social care without charge for the elderly too. What's changed since then is the result of massive heists such as income tax cuts for the rich, inheritance tax cuts for the rich, privatisation, and normalisation of huge debt as soon as people turn 18. Reversing even a decade of two of robbery this redistribution of wealth to the extremely rich would easily pay for everything in the Labour manifesto. The only ones strutting around "entitled" are the rich.Alice_Aforethought said:
97% of them do in fact.Gallowgate said:
I don't think that's quite true. Most people in this country earn less than 80k and quite a few of them, maybe even a majority, believe the country is better served by a Conservative government at the moment rather than one lead by Jeremy Corbyn...TravelJunkie said:
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.Gallowgate said:
What are you going on about?TravelJunkie said:Establishment Vs the people.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Labour does not have a monopoly on morality.
The other 3% of them don't make anything like enough to pay for everything to which Travel Junkie feels entitled. There is an upper limit to how much it is feasible for a state to spend, which is determined by how money its people have and how they will react if you take too much of it away.
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Oh totally. But in NI if a voter plumped for the 'wrong' candidate from 'their side' and themmuns get in, the voter will attack everyone involved in politics for not telling them 'correctly' who to vote for. I don't get real abuse on the door from SDLP or even SF voters. It's DUPers who burn my ears and say I 'should be ashamed' of being a UUP man.Stereotomy said:
And also unnecessary?Lucian_Fletcher said:
It's genuinely fascinating. Without being party-political, almost anyone on the ballot would make a decent MP and I wouldn't be surprised at any of FOUR candidates getting in. Makes tactical voting very, very difficult.AlastairMeeks said:
South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.Lucian_Fletcher said:At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
If I had my toes held to the fire, I'd say SDLP hold but I genuinely wouldn't be surprised by any result between DUP/SF/SDLP/All.0 -
Didn't it rise last year?Andy_Cooke said:
That would be the Lib Dems.MarqueeMark said:
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)TravelJunkie said:
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.Gallowgate said:
What are you going on about?TravelJunkie said:Establishment Vs the people.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.0 -
London forecast to be totally cloudy tomorrow, which must be unusual in June.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743?day=10 -
Uh oh..
@iainjwatson: Friends of Diane Abbott (not a euphemism for DA herself) say she was moved without consultation -not at her request0 -
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The weather was poor last June for EUref and turnout was high, the weather rarely makes much differenceAndyJS said:London forecast to be totally cloudy tomorrow, which must be unusual in June.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743?day=10 -
Very sad that the home secretary for 6 years who didn't have to face conservative members to leader has decreased police numbers resources as home secretary and now has increased terrorism and u-turned on many manifesto policies plus given no policies on key issues without details.
Reward - pm.0 -
Yes. I think that survivors of atrocities should get extra tolerance when they say what conclusions it's led them to (in the same way though somewhat less partisan, Jo Cox's widower has been pushing the sort of things she believed in). Of course it doesn't necessarily make them right but they deserve a decent hearing.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I have no problem with this - she's more than entitled to do so.0 -
Mark how many council seats did the SCons gain in East Dunbartonshire? More than 2?MarkSenior said:
In East Dunbarton the Lib Dems gained 2 council seats , how was that awful ?Pulpstar said:
I think the awful council performance for the yellows in E Dumb has muddied the tactical waters for Jo too much.Cicero said:Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
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So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.0 -
His reputation is on the line as are others. Some polling companies will be in real trouble after tomorrow.IanB2 said:Remarkable claim from the Survation guy that even rowing youth turnout back to 2015 levels only changes their forecast by a per cent or two
For the first time I feel the narrative is changing and todays Evening Standard endorsing Theresa May and traducing labour policies by the IFS must have some traction in London.
The movememt of the leaders, the reports of a confident Theresa May from the journalists travelling with her, the anecdotal evidence of a failing labour campaign that may have peaked too soon, and Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme0 -
The restrictions tomorrow don't apply to websites like this. Is that right?0
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Sky hands down. Trasher is superior.jonny83 said:So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.0 -
I lived there for 12 years.Beverley_C said:
No.Lucian_Fletcher said:Just for a laugh... does anyone think the Tories could win Rochdale?
Go to Rochdale and have a look. It will be the last ever constituency to stop being Labour....0 -
Remind me, what was the tax free allowance when the LibDems left the Coalition? And what is it now? How much have the Conservatives increased the amount you can earn since gaining a majority?Andy_Cooke said:
That would be the Lib Dems.MarqueeMark said:
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)TravelJunkie said:
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.Gallowgate said:
What are you going on about?TravelJunkie said:Establishment Vs the people.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.
The Conservatives are still the party that wants to take people out of tax.
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Best place is herejonny83 said:So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.0 -
Hope not! I'm just taking the view that with only a few to go, we've not had a single poll (since god knows when) with the Tories not in the lead (however small) and I only need a majority of 2 to win on my bet.JackW said:
Oh dear ....Scrapheap_as_was said:Betfair Tory majority and most seats both coming in further. Put another 500 on the former earlier as couldnot wait for Jack w piece....
They'll be tears before bedtime ....
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Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.0
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Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North West, the region was solidly Leave last year but we shall seeNickPalmer said:
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.HYUFD said:
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour holdBrom said:
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.0 -
Sadly the guy was the ultimate pollster anorak and was incapable of giving any sort of clear explanation or of getting even near the point in the time allotted by Mr Neil. I doubt Survation will be sending him anywhere near a TV studio again, if they have any sense.Razedabode said:
So, why the large divergence from other polls like comres and ICM? Tough being a pollsterIanB2 said:Remarkable claim from the Survation guy that even rowing youth turnout back to 2015 levels only changes their forecast by a per cent or two
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Evening standard has always endorsed the Tories. They've never endorsed another party even for mayor.Big_G_NorthWales said:
His reputation is on the line as are others. Some polling companies will be in real trouble after tomorrow.IanB2 said:Remarkable claim from the Survation guy that even rowing youth turnout back to 2015 levels only changes their forecast by a per cent or two
For the first time I feel the narrative is changing and todays Evening Standard endorsing Theresa May and traducing labour policies by the IFS must have some traction in London.
The movememt of the leaders, the reports of a confident Theresa May from the journalists travelling with her, the anecdotal evidence of a failing labour campaign that may have peaked too soon, and Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme
There represent the people that make ,80k a year.0 -
exactly.NickPalmer said:
Yes. I think that survivors of atrocities should get extra tolerance when they say what conclusions it's led them to (in the same way though somewhat less partisan, Jo Cox's widower has been pushing the sort of things she believed in). Of course it doesn't necessarily make them right but they deserve a decent hearing.Scrapheap_as_was said:
I have no problem with this - she's more than entitled to do so.0 -
The Tories aren't dumb - they're more than happy to take on policies from other parties when they're proven to be electorally successful.midwinter said:
Didn't it rise last year?Andy_Cooke said:
That would be the Lib Dems.MarqueeMark said:
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)TravelJunkie said:
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.Gallowgate said:
What are you going on about?TravelJunkie said:Establishment Vs the people.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.0 -
I'm struggling to see Danczuk winning but it's his candidacy which makes me wonder if the Tories can come through the middle. Of course, a sitting MP can spring a surprise under a new label.Pulpstar said:
I wouldn't mind Danczuk winning there, OK he's had a few issues but I think his work into the grooming scandal has almost broken him. I'd have a hard think about my vote there.Lucian_Fletcher said:Just for a laugh... does anyone think the Tories could win Rochdale? Surely the anti-Tory vote will split quite a bit and this has never been as firmly Labour as some suggest and some parts did used to be quite blue (Old Littleborough and Saddleworth). I might have a wee tickle.
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Looks good value - though I hate relying on this year's crop of youngsters not to put it in the wall...Morris_Dancer said:Betting Post
Backed No Safety Car at 3 (Ladbrokes) for Canada. Checking Wikipedia, seems there's only been 2 of the last 7 races to feature one, and weather forecast is for it to be cloudy but dry.0 -
Anyone heard from Charlotte Church lately? No? Good.0
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It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.HYUFD said:
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North WestNickPalmer said:
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.HYUFD said:
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour holdBrom said:
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.0 -
I’ll be flicking between the two, until I finally give up on Aunty’s sluggishness with results and constantly missing declarations.jonny83 said:So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.0 -
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I think Nicolson will hold on, he seems very affable and is a recognisable figure. He always knew it would be tough to keep the seat so my guess is he has worked alot harder than many of his colleagues.NorthCadboll said:Mark how many council seats did the SCons gain in East Dunbartonshire? More than 2?
MarkSenior said:
In East Dunbarton the Lib Dems gained 2 council seats , how was that awful ?Pulpstar said:
I think the awful council performance for the yellows in E Dumb has muddied the tactical waters for Jo too much.Cicero said:Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
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A lot higher than it would have been without the Lib Dems.MarqueeMark said:
Remind me, what was the tax free allowance when the LibDems left the Coalition? And what is it now? How much have the Conservatives increased the amount you can earn since gaining a majority?Andy_Cooke said:
That would be the Lib Dems.MarqueeMark said:
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)TravelJunkie said:
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.Gallowgate said:
What are you going on about?TravelJunkie said:Establishment Vs the people.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.
The Conservatives are still the party that wants to take people out of tax.
To the tune of thousands.
Have a read of the 2010 Tory manifesto and the 2010 Lib Dem one.
And yes, when the Lib Dem policy proved to be both successful and popular, the Tories were eager to take credit for it and keep it going.
Doesn't make it retrospectively their policy or idea, though. Rewriting history is not a good thing to do.0 -
Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax-1
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Churchill's blundering as Chancellor in late '20s didn't stop him being made PM.TravelJunkie said:Very sad that the home secretary for 6 years who didn't have to face conservative members to leader has decreased police numbers resources as home secretary and now has increased terrorism and u-turned on many manifesto policies plus given no policies on key issues without details.
Reward - pm.0 -
ITV – Ozzy and Ed Balls. Should be a hoot!jonny83 said:So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
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Property market crash looms.Roger said:Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax
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If Jack's ARSE is out this evening, I don't want to steal his thunder, so FWIW, my election forecast:
Con 360
Lab 215
LD 6
Grn 1
UKIP 0
SNP 47
PC 3
NI 18
Con maj: 70
Based on: 45/36/8/2/3/4.2/0.6 plus finger in the air adjustment.
Betting wise, I have:
LDs under 29
Cons under 398
Lab above 160
Con victories in Swansea West 2/1, Tooting 5/4, Carshalton and Wallington 9/5
Lab next leader: E. Thornberry 25/1, S. Kinnock 18/1, L. Nandy 14/1
LD next leader: N. Clegg, A. Carmichael (both 16/1)
And if anyone's interested in why I've chosen to vote the way I did two weeks ago by post, here it is:
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/face-up-or-run-away
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Lol. is allAndy_Cooke said:
The Tories aren't dumb - they're more than happy to take on policies from other parties when they're proven to be electorally successful.midwinter said:
Didn't it rise last year?Andy_Cooke said:
That would be the Lib Dems.MarqueeMark said:
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)TravelJunkie said:
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.Gallowgate said:
What are you going on about?TravelJunkie said:Establishment Vs the people.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.0 -
Charlotte Church has been locked in a cupboard with Philip Hammond for the duration. At least I expect that's why we've not seen our esteemed Chancellor on the telly. Nothing to do with planned tax rises.Prodicus said:Anyone heard from Charlotte Church lately? No? Good.
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Mr. B, it was old man Button who did it last time. Also, VSC should help.0
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Bolsover?AndyJS said:
It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.HYUFD said:
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North WestNickPalmer said:
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.HYUFD said:
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour holdBrom said:
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
(still can't see it, but....)0 -
You think Clegg will hold Hallam?Baskerville said:If Jack's ARSE is out this evening, I don't want to steal his thunder, so FWIW, my election forecast:
Con 360
Lab 215
LD 6
Grn 1
UKIP 0
SNP 47
PC 3
NI 18
Con maj: 70
Based on: 45/36/8/2/3/4.2/0.6 plus finger in the air adjustment.
Betting wise, I have:
LDs under 29
Cons under 398
Lab above 160
Con victories in Swansea West 2/1, Tooting 5/4, Carshalton and Wallington 9/5
Lab next leader: E. Thornberry 25/1, S. Kinnock 18/1, L. Nandy 14/1
LD next leader: N. Clegg, A. Carmichael (both 16/1)
And if anyone's interested in why I've chosen to vote the way I did two weeks ago by post, here it is:
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/face-up-or-run-away0 -
I have never lived there, but I have friends who do. Visiting is like time warping back to the 70sLucian_Fletcher said:
I lived there for 12 years.Beverley_C said:
No.Lucian_Fletcher said:Just for a laugh... does anyone think the Tories could win Rochdale?
Go to Rochdale and have a look. It will be the last ever constituency to stop being Labour....
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reason is they have people in over 300 counts (they use media studies students and lecturers)jonny83 said:So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.0 -
She'll be the main challenger to Corbyn's leadership next week ..... no chance she's allowed the chance to shine now.Pulpstar said:Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
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How does less human rights = more security? They have no human rights in Iran and they've just had the fuck blown out of them.Big_G_NorthWales said:Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme
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Likely to mean I watch ITV this time (post DD & bongs) and only go to BBC during any adverts. Also avoids Jeremy Vine this way - yeehaw. The first 2 hours will be mainly waffle and 'too early to say' so rather hear that duo.Bobajob_PB said:
ITV – Ozzy and Ed Balls. Should be a hoot!jonny83 said:So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Shame they couldn't make a late transfer bid for Prof Curtice though!0 -
Whatever they have on in Omagh Leisure Centre!jonny83 said:So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.0 -
Isn't Nottingham South packed full of students?MarqueeMark said:
Bolsover?AndyJS said:
It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.HYUFD said:
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North WestNickPalmer said:
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.HYUFD said:
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour holdBrom said:
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
(still can't see it, but....)0 -
Weirdly, it would have made sense if UKIP had remained a force.Alice_Aforethought said:
Why would any Remain voter support the Lib Dems now? Has that ship not sailed?El_Capitano said:Not writing them off yet.
"There are no obvious reasons to presume that seats that the Lib Dems have a special interest in are going to differ particularly from the par."
There is one obvious reason, and that is Brexit.
The Lib Dems' focus on Brexit appears to have cut no ice in 640 seats. But that's not to say that it has bombed absolutely everywhere.
Cambridge, OxWAb, Twickenham, even Vauxhall are places where the Lib Dem message could work. I don't know whether it has or not: I can see the Lib Dems coming out of this with anywhere between 4 and 18 seats. But it's too early - a day and a half too early, to be precise - to predict a wipe-out with any certainty.0 -
British Muslim leaders have refused to say the traditional prayers at the funerals of the London Bridge murderers. The Muslim Council of Britain says that their acts "alienate them from any association with our community for whom the inviolability of every human life is the founding principle." In other words, they are saying that they do not recognise the murderers as martyrs or even as Muslims. They are saying they will go to hell.
Any decent person will praise the MCB for doing the right thing. They are a credit not just to Islam but to Britain.
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.-1 -
I very much doubt she would have agreed if asked. The number of senior backbenchers who were willing to say that they had no confidence in Corbyn as leader of his party is one of the many dogs that has not really barked in this campaign. They have stayed quiet and out of the way so that the blame falls where it belongs.Pulpstar said:Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
It has made May's use or non use of her own cabinet, especially her Chancellor, even odder. She had the potential to contrast a united team with one in disarray and has chosen not to use it preferring a very Presidential approach.0 -
Nah, you have to give them credit for it. They've pinched half of Miliband's manifesto as well - but I'm not convinced that was quite as popular, to be fair.midwinter said:
Lol. is allAndy_Cooke said:
The Tories aren't dumb - they're more than happy to take on policies from other parties when they're proven to be electorally successful.midwinter said:
Didn't it rise last year?Andy_Cooke said:
That would be the Lib Dems.MarqueeMark said:
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)TravelJunkie said:
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.Gallowgate said:
What are you going on about?TravelJunkie said:Establishment Vs the people.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.0 -
Who me? I only do narratives on shoes - ask around. It is true I assure you.... I am PB's leading shoe specialist, especially on slingbacks and wedges.TravelJunkie said:
Rochdale was a little dem seat 10 years ago.Beverley_C said:
No.Lucian_Fletcher said:Just for a laugh... does anyone think the Tories could win Rochdale?
Go to Rochdale and have a look. It will be the last ever constituency to stop being Labour....
Stop trying to create a narrative0 -
Probably but Gedling was also a clear Leave win last year, Nottingham a narrow Leave wibAndyJS said:
It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.HYUFD said:
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North WestNickPalmer said:
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.HYUFD said:
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour holdBrom said:
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.0 -
Hammond is out and about in Kingston.0
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It is during term time. I assume they are not there now as the one person I know at Nottingham is home.rottenborough said:
Isn't Nottingham South packed full of students?MarqueeMark said:
Bolsover?AndyJS said:
It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.HYUFD said:
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North WestNickPalmer said:
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.HYUFD said:
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour holdBrom said:
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
(still can't see it, but....)0 -
Here's my prediction:
Con 355
Lab 218
LD 8
PC 3
SNP 46
UKIP 0
Other 19
Majority 60
To feed my UNS model, I'm using Hanretty's estimates for England and the latest individual Scottish and Welsh polls for Scotland and Wales.
I'm making a profit on the seat spreads up to 125 but hopefully by then some of my long-punts in individual constituencies will start to come through.
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Sounds about right.Scott_P said:0 -
Omagh???? I think I drove through it once.Lucian_Fletcher said:
Whatever they have on in Omagh Leisure Centre!jonny83 said:So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Well, it is an upgrade from Rochdale in any case
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Ex Labour peer with 5.3m followers on twitter counters the luvvies
Lord SugarVerified account @Lord_Sugar 2m2 minutes ago
More
If you admire or trust me as an east end boy done good by honest hard graft .I sincetely beg or advise you not to vote for Corbyn #trustme
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They're offering another referendum on the final deal.Alice_Aforethought said:
Why would any Remain voter support the Lib Dems now? Has that ship not sailed?El_Capitano said:Not writing them off yet.
"There are no obvious reasons to presume that seats that the Lib Dems have a special interest in are going to differ particularly from the par."
There is one obvious reason, and that is Brexit.
The Lib Dems' focus on Brexit appears to have cut no ice in 640 seats. But that's not to say that it has bombed absolutely everywhere.
Cambridge, OxWAb, Twickenham, even Vauxhall are places where the Lib Dem message could work. I don't know whether it has or not: I can see the Lib Dems coming out of this with anywhere between 4 and 18 seats. But it's too early - a day and a half too early, to be precise - to predict a wipe-out with any certainty.0 -
Well there's a surprise.Scott_P said:Uh oh..
@iainjwatson: Friends of Diane Abbott (not a euphemism for DA herself) say she was moved without consultation -not at her request
It's a silly thing to do anyway, they've simply drawn even more attention to her.0 -
Buying popcorn?Pulpstar said:Hammond is out and about in Kingston.
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***** Betting Post *****
Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%.
Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage.
Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!)
As ever DYOR.0 -
Cyan said:
British Muslim leaders have refused to say the traditional prayers at the funerals of the London Bridge murderers. The Muslim Council of Britain says that their acts "alienate them from any association with our community for whom the inviolability of every human life is the founding principle." In other words, they are saying that they do not recognise the murderers as martyrs or even as Muslims. They are saying they will go to hell.
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I know, Mr.D. Just makes it all the more galling.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B, it was old man Button who did it last time. Also, VSC should help.
As I said, good odds... but not enough to banish my mental image of Stroll devaluing the Wall of Champions with his carbon fibre.0 -
Labour vote share with PP 25-30 per cent =6/1.
20-25 per cent =33/1
Just saying0 -
Tories now on 62% with Leave voters, 2% up on last week, Labour also slightly increased its lead with Remain voters but Tories doing better with Remain voters than Labour are with Leave voters. Suggests carnage for Labour in the North, the Midlands and Wales but Labour holding its own in London and maybe picking up a few Tory seats in the SouthScott_P said:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/maps-charts-showing-state-play-eve-general-election/0 -
Mr. B, it was galling. I've rarely been so irritated a bet didn't come off, because it was entirely unnecessary. Mistakes and bad luck happen, but when a driver's just stupid it's irksome.0
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She may have been approached by team Corbyn, but declined. – Wouldn’t be the first time.Pulpstar said:Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
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0
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Con Landslide coming back in...Scott_P said:0 -
Turnout sub 63% @ 9-4 and buying 63.5%+ on the spreads is a decent combo.peter_from_putney said:
***** Betting Post *****
Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%.
Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage.
Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!)
As ever DYOR.0 -
Been looming for a while now, it will get blamed on Brexit but in reality is the normal cycleScrapheap_as_was said:
Property market crash looms.Roger said:Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax
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So a former Tory Chancellor endorsing his own party is going to sway votes! Lol The Tories are going to do badly in a London because of more police cuts to come . Vote Tory to be less safe is hardly going to be a vote winner.Big_G_NorthWales said:
His reputation is on the line as are others. Some polling companies will be in real trouble after tomorrow.IanB2 said:Remarkable claim from the Survation guy that even rowing youth turnout back to 2015 levels only changes their forecast by a per cent or two
For the first time I feel the narrative is changing and todays Evening Standard endorsing Theresa May and traducing labour policies by the IFS must have some traction in London.
The movememt of the leaders, the reports of a confident Theresa May from the journalists travelling with her, the anecdotal evidence of a failing labour campaign that may have peaked too soon, and Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme0 -
@martinboon: @ICMResearch has preliminary @guardian final poll data but we continue to poll through this evening. Might be tonight; might be tomorrow.0
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They had a chance to deal with the unfair imbalance between the percentage vote and the number of seatsScott_P said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenkins_Commission_(UK)
It was commissioned 20 years ago.0 -
Oh no!Scott_P said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch has preliminary @guardian final poll data but we continue to poll through this evening. Might be tonight; might be tomorrow.
0 -
As I reported previously, in the Citizenship class at my daughter's school and their mock GE, no one (0) wanted to be Labour - it was all Tory, Lib Dem or Greens I think (not sure re kippers - didn't ask). One class mate on Jeremy Corbyn asked if he was the homeless one.dr_spyn said:What's wrong with the word penis?
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/872360985897558016
[caveat - this is Bucks]0 -
Rough start for Halep in the quarters, French Open.0
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Not sure, but if he does, 16/1's not a bad price... only small £s tho.
You think Clegg will hold Hallam?
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It'll crash more if Corbyn and his loons get in.nigel4england said:
Been looming for a while now, it will get blamed on Brexit but in reality is the normal cycleScrapheap_as_was said:
Property market crash looms.Roger said:Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax
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There has been a further move towards the Tories on the GE Seats spread markets this morning. In the case of IG, they go 367 - 373 (i.e. 370 mid point) on the Blue Team, which is about 10 seats higher than they were offering last night. The other two firms are a couple of seats lower than this.0
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Hear hear! PB was miles ahead of the TV on Referendum Night.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Best place is herejonny83 said:So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.0 -
Perhaps they did..Pulpstar said:Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
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Good on him.Scrapheap_as_was said:Ex Labour peer with 5.3m followers on twitter counters the luvvies
Lord SugarVerified account @Lord_Sugar 2m2 minutes ago
More
If you admire or trust me as an east end boy done good by honest hard graft .I sincetely beg or advise you not to vote for Corbyn #trustme0 -
Well done them. This is what I've been calling for - http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/issue-the-fatwa - but don't tar "Tories' with your bigoted brush.Cyan said:British Muslim leaders have refused to say the traditional prayers at the funerals of the London Bridge murderers. The Muslim Council of Britain says that their acts "alienate them from any association with our community for whom the inviolability of every human life is the founding principle." In other words, they are saying that they do not recognise the murderers as martyrs or even as Muslims. They are saying they will go to hell.
Any decent person will praise the MCB for doing the right thing. They are a credit not just to Islam but to Britain.
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.0 -
why do you think swansea west will fall?Gallowgate said:
You think Clegg will hold Hallam?Baskerville said:If Jack's ARSE is out this evening, I don't want to steal his thunder, so FWIW, my election forecast:
Con 360
Lab 215
LD 6
Grn 1
UKIP 0
SNP 47
PC 3
NI 18
Con maj: 70
Based on: 45/36/8/2/3/4.2/0.6 plus finger in the air adjustment.
Betting wise, I have:
LDs under 29
Cons under 398
Lab above 160
Con victories in Swansea West 2/1, Tooting 5/4, Carshalton and Wallington 9/5
Lab next leader: E. Thornberry 25/1, S. Kinnock 18/1, L. Nandy 14/1
LD next leader: N. Clegg, A. Carmichael (both 16/1)
And if anyone's interested in why I've chosen to vote the way I did two weeks ago by post, here it is:
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/face-up-or-run-away0 -
Nobody wanted to vote for Bercow?Scrapheap_as_was said:
As I reported previously, in the Citizenship class at my daughter's school and their mock GE, no one (0) wanted to be Labour - it was all Tory, Lib Dem or Greens I think (not sure re kippers - didn't ask). One class mate on Jeremy Corbyn asked if he was the homeless one.dr_spyn said:What's wrong with the word penis?
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/872360985897558016
[caveat - this is Bucks]0 -
Didn't they publish one version in 2015 and then revise it (not very much) a bit later?Scott_P said:@martinboon: @ICMResearch has preliminary @guardian final poll data but we continue to poll through this evening. Might be tonight; might be tomorrow.
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had another go to make it strongerFrancisUrquhart said:
Good on him.Scrapheap_as_was said:Ex Labour peer with 5.3m followers on twitter counters the luvvies
Lord SugarVerified account @Lord_Sugar 2m2 minutes ago
More
If you admire or trust me as an east end boy done good by honest hard graft .I sincetely beg or advise you not to vote for Corbyn #trustme
https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/8724283288248279040 -
That was mainly due to the Hanretty 50/50 spreadsheet..SandyRentool said:
Hear hear! PB was miles ahead of the TV on Referendum Night.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Best place is herejonny83 said:So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
I made a decent profit thanks to that.
Therefore i am.backing Hanretty to get it right again.0 -
"The ship's going down. We have an empty berth. Would you care to fill it?"SimonStClare said:
She may have been approached by team Corbyn, but declined. – Wouldn’t be the first time.Pulpstar said:Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
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That is a bit of a creepy advert - not because of the "winky" - but because of the emotional blackmail angle.dr_spyn said:What's wrong with the word penis?
twitter.com/UKLabour/status/872360985897558016
Yeeuuch!0 -
Take 9-2 on Labour in Weaver Vale.Us Corbynites like a bet.Price could collapse.Backed down to 4-1 in 2 places.An opportunity for a nice arb.0
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Link? Or just feeble trolling?Cyan said:
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
0
