It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
As I reported previously, in the Citizenship class at my daughter's school and their mock GE, no one (0) wanted to be Labour - it was all Tory, Lib Dem or Greens I think (not sure re kippers - didn't ask). One class mate on Jeremy Corbyn asked if he was the homeless one.
[caveat - this is Bucks]
Nobody wanted to vote for Bercow?
National election rather than local constituency old boy. Otherwise obviously he'd have scored 100% in their polling.
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
It's been "unraveling" since TM and JC went on Question Time, IMO.
It's a small punt on the basis that the early Welsh polling 'might' be right and, as a former reporter on the South Wales Echo in Cardiff, I'd be delighted to get some money out of people in Swansea for the first time ever.
My one major fear is a terrorist attack tonight or tomorrow. Would this mean a postponed election? Obviously there is never a good time for an attack but the chances sadly must be higher at this GE than ever before.
Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
Maybe she was asked and refused; or was asked but couldn't spare the time as she is in trouble in her seat?
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Best place is here
Hear hear! PB was miles ahead of the TV on Referendum Night.
Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
Maybe she was asked and refused; or was asked but couldn't spare the time as she is in trouble in her seat?
As I reported previously, in the Citizenship class at my daughter's school and their mock GE, no one (0) wanted to be Labour - it was all Tory, Lib Dem or Greens I think (not sure re kippers - didn't ask). One class mate on Jeremy Corbyn asked if he was the homeless one.
[caveat - this is Bucks]
Nobody wanted to vote for Bercow?
National election rather than local constituency old boy. Otherwise obviously he'd have scored 100% in their polling.
My one major fear is a terrorist attack tonight or tomorrow. Would this mean a postponed election? Obviously there is never a good time for an attack but the chances sadly must be higher at this GE than ever before.
No. The election would continue. Otherwise every election would be disrupted by terrorists.
I wonder why none of the posters who used to breathlessly post Breibart's readership figures and ad placements haven't done so over the last few months?
My one major fear is a terrorist attack tonight or tomorrow. Would this mean a postponed election? Obviously there is never a good time for an attack but the chances sadly must be higher at this GE than ever before.
YouGov has updated its rolling model again. Still 42/38. Tories down two seats to 302. Labour up three to 269. SNP down two to 44. LibDem 12. The very slow move toward Labour continues.
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
As someone who likes Corbyn, it has definitely slowed down since the campaign shifted from 'look at our manifesto' towards 'look at the gaps where 20,000 police used to be'. But I'd (want to) interpret that as a successful defense against a period of Tory offensive that could have been a rout.
The way Corbyn's been bringing the manifesto round on the rallies, I think he and McDonnell are thinking most about how to keep it as the basis for Labour's future development more than anything else. Trying to urge their supporters to read it rather than the New Labour 'just smile and deliver leaflets' model.
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Best place is here
Hear hear! PB was miles ahead of the TV on Referendum Night.
And very profitable!!
To profit you have to watch the BBC (because everyone does, and it moves the markets) and read PB!
My one major fear is a terrorist attack tonight or tomorrow. Would this mean a postponed election? Obviously there is never a good time for an attack but the chances sadly must be higher at this GE than ever before.
No.
No. But the realist in me can't see a day without an incident at a polling station.
YouGov has updated its rolling model again. Still 42/38. Tories down two seats to 302. Labour up three to 269. SNP down two to 44. LibDem 12. The very slow move toward Labour continues.
Diane Abbott being replaced by Lyn Brown had me wondering why I recognised the formers name and her picture. So, I looked her up on Wikipedia and it is the same Lyn Brown who pushed a blind man apparently.
What does it say about the Labour party that Abbott who doesn't seem able to even master the Home Office brief is replaced by someone who does not seem to be able to master basic human civilities? I mean pushing a blind man is just not socially acceptable, maybe Corbyn should give her the push!
YouGov has updated its rolling model again. Still 42/38. Tories down two seats to 302. Labour up three to 269. SNP down two to 44. LibDem 12. The very slow move toward Labour continues.
Hanretty has a Tory 100 seat majority and he was bang on in EU ref unlike Yougov
Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%. Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage. Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!) As ever DYOR.
Curious pattern that PfP. You would think that if there was to be a surprise it would be on the upside, and that the downside would be limited, which would point to the spreads being much higher than 63.5% if you can get 9/4 on less than 63%.
On another note, am told Corbyn not helpful in Workington, since despite the Labour manifesto and the sitting MPs positions supporting nuclear Corbyn not trusted on this point. Can't believe it makes as much difference as in Copeland, but...
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Best place is here
Hear hear! PB was miles ahead of the TV on Referendum Night.
And very profitable!!
To profit you have to watch the BBC (because everyone does, and it moves the markets) and read PB!
Wonder how the BBC presenters will have voted. Dimblebore nailed on Labour, Andrew Neil defo Tory. Laura K Tory this time I'd guess but normally Labour.
Brainwashing alert - Not once has the Tory ad left the right hand side of my facebook. Not for a single minute, adblock doesn't stop it either.
Do you think facebook will have an impact this election? My timeline is 90% often surprising friends posting Labour videos with high numbers of likes, 9% normies going about their daily life, and 1% brave Tories with one like total. The last will be happier than the first on Friday.
My one major fear is a terrorist attack tonight or tomorrow. Would this mean a postponed election? Obviously there is never a good time for an attack but the chances sadly must be higher at this GE than ever before.
No it would just prolong the violence, they are particularly targeting the election period
YouGov has updated its rolling model again. Still 42/38. Tories down two seats to 302. Labour up three to 269. SNP down two to 44. LibDem 12. The very slow move toward Labour continues.
Should the consensus final view of the other pollsters this evening come in showing a Tory majority of between say 80 - 100, is it really conceivable that YouGov will stick to its latest model and forecast the Tories falling short of achieving any majority at all? Massive embarrassment if they were to call it so wrong, on the other hand huge kudos should they be proved correct. Squeaky bum time doesn't come close.
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
As someone who likes Corbyn, it has definitely slowed down since the campaign shifted from 'look at our manifesto' towards 'look at the gaps where 20,000 police used to be'. But I'd (want to) interpret that as a successful defense against a period of Tory offensive that could have been a rout.
The way Corbyn's been bringing the manifesto round on the rallies, I think he and McDonnell are thinking most about how to keep it as the basis for Labour's future development more than anything else. Trying to urge their supporters to read it rather than the New Labour 'just smile and deliver leaflets' model.
It's a small punt on the basis that the early Welsh polling 'might' be right and, as a former reporter on the South Wales Echo in Cardiff, I'd be delighted to get some money out of people in Swansea for the first time ever.
fair enough - can't see it myself, as labour did very well in the council elections in swansea this year. also the south wales west polling subsamples (I know caveats apply etc) in 4 most recent polls were
tory % of 43% 36% 26% 32% labour% of 29% 37% 56% and 52%
"There are no obvious reasons to presume that seats that the Lib Dems have a special interest in are going to differ particularly from the par."
There is one obvious reason, and that is Brexit.
The Lib Dems' focus on Brexit appears to have cut no ice in 640 seats. But that's not to say that it has bombed absolutely everywhere.
Cambridge, OxWAb, Twickenham, even Vauxhall are places where the Lib Dem message could work. I don't know whether it has or not: I can see the Lib Dems coming out of this with anywhere between 4 and 18 seats. But it's too early - a day and a half too early, to be precise - to predict a wipe-out with any certainty.
Why would any Remain voter support the Lib Dems now? Has that ship not sailed?
They're offering another referendum on the final deal.
But how many Remainers a/ think there should be endless referendums until the 'right' result is judged to the conclusive one, b/ believe this so strongly they'd switch from Lab or Con to, well, Farron, and c/ consider a party with 8 seats now likely to be in any position to deliver?
That number is surely 0.0 voters per seat. I think this is the biggest red herring ever.
One technical issue that we've not discussed is the unwind of first-time incumbency bonus. There is lots of evidence, reinforced in 2015, that first-time incumbents get a bonus - people say "X hasn't done too badly, let's give them another term". The same research suggests that this declines over time - people gradually shift into "time to give someone ls a go" mood. (I've been there, got the T-shirt.) There were lots of first-time Tories from 2010 defending in 2015. It's possible that it's eroded somewhat, and that that's why ICM is showing a swing to Labour in Tory marginals at the same time as it's showing a swing to the Tories in Labour marginals.
I wonder why none of the posters who used to breathlessly post Breibart's readership figures and ad placements haven't done so over the last few months?
Should the consensus final view of the other pollsters this evening come in showing a Tory majority of between say 80 - 100, is it really conceivable that YouGov will stick to its latest model and forecast the Tories falling short of achieving any majority at all? Massive embarrassment if they were to call it so wrong, on the other hand huge kudos should they be proved correct. Squeaky bum time doesn't come close.
If they don't stick to it then they're committing intellectual fraud.
My one major fear is a terrorist attack tonight or tomorrow. Would this mean a postponed election? Obviously there is never a good time for an attack but the chances sadly must be higher at this GE than ever before.
It would go ahead even if the worse happens. Campaigning and the process of voting are two different dynamics. The national campaign finishes today anyway, it is all about getting the votes out in every seat tomorrow, which is local campaigning.
YouGov has updated its rolling model again. Still 42/38. Tories down two seats to 302. Labour up three to 269. SNP down two to 44. LibDem 12. The very slow move toward Labour continues.
Hmm...
Both YouGov and Survation are now adamant that their balanced parliament forecast does not rest upon the Youth Tsunami coming to pass.
This campaign has turned from one of the most boring to one of the most interesting in a few short weeks.
Brainwashing alert - Not once has the Tory ad left the right hand side of my facebook. Not for a single minute, adblock doesn't stop it either.
Do you think facebook will have an impact this election? My timeline is 90% often surprising friends posting Labour videos with high numbers of likes, 9% normies going about their daily life, and 1% brave Tories with one like total. The last will be happier than the first on Friday.
The relentless Another Angry Voice pushing (Hey I won't fall out/defriend anyone over politics pretty much) by a couple of friends and Tory ad combo has definitely pushed me to the right. My other half's timeline is hilariously left wing right now, proper bubble immersion stuff - she's sensible enough to realise Labour probably won't win though.
My one major fear is a terrorist attack tonight or tomorrow. Would this mean a postponed election? Obviously there is never a good time for an attack but the chances sadly must be higher at this GE than ever before.
No.
No. But the realist in me can't see a day without an incident at a polling station.
Yes I'm not saying there will be no incidents but no way will it stop the election for precisely the reason given by Carlotta.
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour hold
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North West
It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.
Bolsover?
(still can't see it, but....)
Skinner (along with Blair, Brown and Miliband) has managed to whittle Bolsover's majority down from 27k in 1997 to 11k in 2015. That ought to be safeish but with Con and UKIP both on about a quarter of the vote (to Labour's half), it does potentially put Skinner into vulnerable territory if Con can capture a lot of the UKIP support - though the fact that UKIP is standing again (despite Skinner and the Tories both being effectively pro-Brexit) may not help them.
That said, I'd still expect him to win with a comfortable four-figure majority.
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
I think there will be a big bottling of voting for Corbyn tomorrow. Especially amongst women. Bit like a holiday romance. At first, she was flattered by the attention of the older man, with his rakish charm and a way with a crowd. But now he's said a few things that make her doubt him. And he's started darkly suggesting he could come back to live with her after the holiday is over.
And now she's starting to think - is he just after me for my money?
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
It's been "unraveling" since TM and JC went on Question Time, IMO.
I have a feeling we are heading back to where we were at the beginning of the campaign in terms of mood.Labour canvass returns have been awful throughout the campaign .What if all the polling during the election has been froth and things haven't really changed at all?
My one major fear is a terrorist attack tonight or tomorrow. Would this mean a postponed election? Obviously there is never a good time for an attack but the chances sadly must be higher at this GE than ever before.
No.
No. But the realist in me can't see a day without an incident at a polling station.
Yes I'm not saying there will be no incidents but no way will it stop the election for precisely the reason given by Carlotta.
oh no, the election will not be stopped. Just that there is likely to be some horribleness around it.
Just had a lovely young man ring my bell in Twickenham. Would I be voting for Theresa May? Yes I'll be voting Conservative. Would I like a reminder tomorrow? No thanks not necessary.
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour hold
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North West
It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.
Bolsover?
(still can't see it, but....)
Skinner (along with Blair, Brown and Miliband) has managed to whittle Bolsover's majority down from 27k in 1997 to 11k in 2015. That ought to be safeish but with Con and UKIP both on about a quarter of the vote (to Labour's half), it does potentially put Skinner into vulnerable territory if Con can capture a lot of the UKIP support - though the fact that UKIP is standing again (despite Skinner and the Tories both being effectively pro-Brexit) may not help them.
That said, I'd still expect him to win with a comfortable four-figure majority.
Agree. Be surprised if the Conservatives get within 3,000.
Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax
Just had a lovely young man ring my bell in Twickenham. Would I be voting for Theresa May? Yes I'll be voting Conservative. Would I like a reminder tomorrow? No thanks not necessary.
Brainwashing alert - Not once has the Tory ad left the right hand side of my facebook. Not for a single minute, adblock doesn't stop it either.
Do you think facebook will have an impact this election? My timeline is 90% often surprising friends posting Labour videos with high numbers of likes, 9% normies going about their daily life, and 1% brave Tories with one like total. The last will be happier than the first on Friday.
There was a lot of stories after 2015 that Messina and his gang had made huge use of facebook and big data to target messages and campaigning. Not heard nearly so much about it this time but in 2015 most of the stories came out after the polls had closed. AIUI the Tories spent serious money on this last time out.
Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%. Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage. Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!) As ever DYOR.
Curious pattern that PfP. You would think that if there was to be a surprise it would be on the upside, and that the downside would be limited, which would point to the spreads being much higher than 63.5% if you can get 9/4 on less than 63%.
On another note, am told Corbyn not helpful in Workington, since despite the Labour manifesto and the sitting MPs positions supporting nuclear Corbyn not trusted on this point. Can't believe it makes as much difference as in Copeland, but...
Paul ..... are you DC under a different guise? .... Just curious.
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
I think there will be a big bottling of voting for Corbyn tomorrow. Especially amongst women. Bit like a holiday romance. At first, she was flattered by the attention of the older man, with his rakish charm and a way with a crowd. But now he's said a few things that make her doubt him. And he's started darkly suggesting he could come back to live with her after the holiday is over.
And now she's starting to think - is he just after me for my money?
Your efforts to explain the workings of the female psyche through the medium of rubbish soap opera scripts are heroic.
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
I think there will be a big bottling of voting for Corbyn tomorrow. Especially amongst women. Bit like a holiday romance. At first, she was flattered by the attention of the older man, with his rakish charm and a way with a crowd. But now he's said a few things that make her doubt him. And he's started darkly suggesting he could come back to live with her after the holiday is over.
And now she's starting to think - is he just after me for my money?
Suppose YouGov etc. are right and we do get a hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party. Presumably Boris would replace Theresa and we'd be having another election in September.
Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%. Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage. Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!) As ever DYOR.
Just had a lovely young man ring my bell in Twickenham. Would I be voting for Theresa May? Yes I'll be voting Conservative. Would I like a reminder tomorrow? No thanks not necessary.
Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%. Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage. Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!) As ever DYOR.
Turnout will probably be down in Scotland though
IER should push reported turnout up. I think that looks like a good bet.
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
I think there will be a big bottling of voting for Corbyn tomorrow. Especially amongst women. Bit like a holiday romance. At first, she was flattered by the attention of the older man, with his rakish charm and a way with a crowd. But now he's said a few things that make her doubt him. And he's started darkly suggesting he could come back to live with her after the holiday is over.
And now she's starting to think - is he just after me for my money?
I wonder why none of the posters who used to breathlessly post Breibart's readership figures and ad placements haven't done so over the last few months?
Blackadder: All right, "Mr S. Baldrick." Now then, "Distinguishing features".... None.
Baldrick: Hold on. I've got this big growth in the middle of my face.
Blackadder: That's your nose, Baldrick. Now, "Any history of insanity in the family?"... Tell you what. I'll cross out the "in." "Any history of sanity in the family?" ... None whatsoever. Now, "Criminal record?"
Baldrick: Absolutely not.
Blackadder: Oh, come on, Baldrick, you're going to be an MP, for God's sake! Look, I'll just put "Fraud and sexual deviancy".
Just had a lovely young man ring my bell in Twickenham. Would I be voting for Theresa May? Yes I'll be voting Conservative. Would I like a reminder tomorrow? No thanks not necessary.
Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%. Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage. Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!) As ever DYOR.
Curious pattern that PfP. You would think that if there was to be a surprise it would be on the upside, and that the downside would be limited, which would point to the spreads being much higher than 63.5% if you can get 9/4 on less than 63%.
On another note, am told Corbyn not helpful in Workington, since despite the Labour manifesto and the sitting MPs positions supporting nuclear Corbyn not trusted on this point. Can't believe it makes as much difference as in Copeland, but...
Paul ..... are you DC under a different guise? .... Just curious.
No, I used to be a regular (as PaulM) up to about 2010ish, and then when Mike switched to vanilla forums I found I couldn't post any more on my mac. I've recently got a PC, and hence have resumed posting. I was posting back in the days when we all won a packet on the London Assembly elections when one of the firms got it horribly wrong had the likes of Beckenham being 6/1 Tory wins.
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
I think there will be a big bottling of voting for Corbyn tomorrow. Especially amongst women. Bit like a holiday romance. At first, she was flattered by the attention of the older man, with his rakish charm and a way with a crowd. But now he's said a few things that make her doubt him. And he's started darkly suggesting he could come back to live with her after the holiday is over.
And now she's starting to think - is he just after me for my money?
Your efforts to explain the workings of the female psyche through the medium of rubbish soap opera scripts are heroic.
I wouldn't try to explain the workings of the Scottish female psyche through any medium. Being married to one, life is a constant source of wonder.....
OK, here's my bit of theorising to try to make sense of what has been going on.
The pattern we have seen isn't that unusual, it's just compressed in time. Go through the stages:
- New PM honeymoon, people project their hopes on to her but aren't paying much attention. Mega poll leads. - Mid-term blues, voters don't like specific policies, want to express anger, want to make a point. The polls move from the government to the opposition, although most people aren't taking that much notice about what the opposition is actually proposing or how fit they are for government - As the election approaches, people start paying a bit more attention. - In the polling booth, you get swingback, because it's no longer a risk-free option to choose the opposition, it's a genuine choice, and the downsides of the opposition's policies and leaders now come into focus as the government's did earlier.
Normally all this takes three or four years. We're seeing it in two months, partly because the calling of the election was such a surprise.
Neither the peak Theresa May honeymoon period nor the peak mid-term opposition support level (i.e., about a week ago in this crazily compressed timeframe) should be seen as the likely final result. Instead it will be somewhere in-between, a bit better for the Conservatives than the recent polls as the swingback swings in.
Just had a lovely young man ring my bell in Twickenham. Would I be voting for Theresa May? Yes I'll be voting Conservative. Would I like a reminder tomorrow? No thanks not necessary.
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
As someone who likes Corbyn, it has definitely slowed down since the campaign shifted from 'look at our manifesto' towards 'look at the gaps where 20,000 police used to be'. But I'd (want to) interpret that as a successful defense against a period of Tory offensive that could have been a rout.
The way Corbyn's been bringing the manifesto round on the rallies, I think he and McDonnell are thinking most about how to keep it as the basis for Labour's future development more than anything else. Trying to urge their supporters to read it rather than the New Labour 'just smile and deliver leaflets' model.
I think that's right.
There is definitely a way forward if both sides of Labour want it. Corbyn has surprised me and many others with his campaigning style - and he has clearly demonstrated that a positive, redistributive message can be successful (even if the Labour manifesto itself is not that redistributive). He has also taught all of us not to worry about the right wing press - something that has really held Labour back in the past. However, what is also clear is that for the Labour message to really get through, it has to be delivered by someone who is seen as strong on security and patriotism. And this is where Corbyn falls down, as do McDonnell, Abbott and others: their baggage, accumulated over many years, is undoubtedly off-putting to voters who value patriotism and prioritise security. So, a Labour leader who is strong on defence and comfortable with the Union Jack would have huge freedom to pitch the left-wing policies that so matter to Labour members. I cannot believe that this does not form the basis of a way forward for the party.
I wonder why none of the posters who used to breathlessly post Breibart's readership figures and ad placements haven't done so over the last few months?
I wonder why none of the posters who used to breathlessly post Breibart's readership figures and ad placements haven't done so over the last few months?
Mike banned her.
Sadly, she wasn't the only person on here who fell down the Breibart rabbit-hole.
Just had a lovely young man ring my bell in Twickenham. Would I be voting for Theresa May? Yes I'll be voting Conservative. Would I like a reminder tomorrow? No thanks not necessary.
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
I think there will be a big bottling of voting for Corbyn tomorrow. Especially amongst women. Bit like a holiday romance. At first, she was flattered by the attention of the older man, with his rakish charm and a way with a crowd. But now he's said a few things that make her doubt him. And he's started darkly suggesting he could come back to live with her after the holiday is over.
And now she's starting to think - is he just after me for my money?
Your efforts to explain the workings of the female psyche through the medium of rubbish soap opera scripts are heroic.
I wouldn't try to explain the workings of the Scottish female psyche through any medium. Being married to one, life is a constant source of wonder.....
"There are no obvious reasons to presume that seats that the Lib Dems have a special interest in are going to differ particularly from the par."
There is one obvious reason, and that is Brexit.
The Lib Dems' focus on Brexit appears to have cut no ice in 640 seats. But that's not to say that it has bombed absolutely everywhere.
Cambridge, OxWAb, Twickenham, even Vauxhall are places where the Lib Dem message could work. I don't know whether it has or not: I can see the Lib Dems coming out of this with anywhere between 4 and 18 seats. But it's too early - a day and a half too early, to be precise - to predict a wipe-out with any certainty.
Why would any Remain voter support the Lib Dems now? Has that ship not sailed?
They're offering another referendum on the final deal.
But how many Remainers a/ think there should be endless referendums until the 'right' result is judged to the conclusive one, b/ believe this so strongly they'd switch from Lab or Con to, well, Farron, and c/ consider a party with 8 seats now likely to be in any position to deliver?
That number is surely 0.0 voters per seat. I think this is the biggest red herring ever.
I've been perplexed at the "endless referendums" complaint. If a referendum on the deal resulted with "Yep, we'll take it," we'd be out immediately. It would be sort of difficult to propose a referendum to Remain after that if we're outside the EU at that point. You could only have a further referendum with a "Remain" option is we chose to Remain at the referendum on the deal. You can only remain if you're in, and we'd not be in.
Brainwashing alert - Not once has the Tory ad left the right hand side of my facebook. Not for a single minute, adblock doesn't stop it either.
Do you think facebook will have an impact this election? My timeline is 90% often surprising friends posting Labour videos with high numbers of likes, 9% normies going about their daily life, and 1% brave Tories with one like total. The last will be happier than the first on Friday.
There was a lot of stories after 2015 that Messina and his gang had made huge use of facebook and big data to target messages and campaigning. Not heard nearly so much about it this time but in 2015 most of the stories came out after the polls had closed. AIUI the Tories spent serious money on this last time out.
There was polling on this a couple of weeks ago. Something like 45% had seen something on Facebook from Labour, 40% from the Tories, and smaller non-trivial numbers for the other parties. I'm not sure that the question was understood though - might be just people counting times a friend has said somethig. Certainly Labour have spent more on FB this time - there are a lot of social media-savvy people in the team, which there frankly weren't in 2015 when my volunteers delivered no fewer than 8 print leafets, to increasing exasperation from volunteers and voters alike.
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
As someone who likes Corbyn, it has definitely slowed down since the campaign shifted from 'look at our manifesto' towards 'look at the gaps where 20,000 police used to be'. But I'd (want to) interpret that as a successful defense against a period of Tory offensive that could have been a rout.
The way Corbyn's been bringing the manifesto round on the rallies, I think he and McDonnell are thinking most about how to keep it as the basis for Labour's future development more than anything else. Trying to urge their supporters to read it rather than the New Labour 'just smile and deliver leaflets' model.
I think that's right.
There is definitely a way forward if both sides of Labour want it. Corbyn has surprised me and many others with his campaigning style - and he has clearly demonstrated that a positive, redistributive message can be successful (even if the Labour manifesto itself is not that redistributive). He has also taught all of us not to worry about the right wing press - something that has really held Labour back in the past. However, what is also clear is that for the Labour message to really get through, it has to be delivered by someone who is seen as strong on security and patriotism. And this is where Corbyn falls down, as do McDonnell, Abbott and others: their baggage, accumulated over many years, is undoubtedly off-putting to voters who value patriotism and prioritise security. So, a Labour leader who is strong on defence and comfortable with the Union Jack would have huge freedom to pitch the left-wing policies that so matter to Labour members. I cannot believe that this does not form the basis of a way forward for the party.
Basically we need a third world war to be patriots in...
Just had a lovely young man ring my bell in Twickenham. Would I be voting for Theresa May? Yes I'll be voting Conservative. Would I like a reminder tomorrow? No thanks not necessary.
Suppose YouGov etc. are right and we do get a hung parliament with the Tories as the biggest party. Presumably Boris would replace Theresa and we'd be having another election in September.
Well any less than 313 and there's a real chance Corbyn becomes PM in the short-run.
313 is magic number because there is literally zero chance of DUP/UUP allowing Corbyn to become PM.
If Corbyn could become PM in short-run he would have much bigger chance of winning another GE in Autumn as he would behave responsibly and people would get used to concept.
So vital for Con that they get 313 - then if May resigns whoever replaces her takes over as PM and goes into 2nd GE as PM.
I wonder why none of the posters who used to breathlessly post Breibart's readership figures and ad placements haven't done so over the last few months?
Just had a lovely young man ring my bell in Twickenham. Would I be voting for Theresa May? Yes I'll be voting Conservative. Would I like a reminder tomorrow? No thanks not necessary.
The layout of that post looks like a limerick.
I've just had a young man from Twickenham ...
etc etc
It's a postmodern limerick
Don't make me share my Ealing limerick
There was a young man from Leeds Who swallowed a packet of seeds Big tufts of grass Shot out of his arse And his cock was covered in weeds
- from David Niven's 1930s MGM screen test. Or so he claimed
Comments
why do you think swansea west will fall?
It's a small punt on the basis that the early Welsh polling 'might' be right and, as a former reporter on the South Wales Echo in Cardiff, I'd be delighted to get some money out of people in Swansea for the first time ever.
I wonder why none of the posters who used to breathlessly post Breibart's readership figures and ad placements haven't done so over the last few months?
The way Corbyn's been bringing the manifesto round on the rallies, I think he and McDonnell are thinking most about how to keep it as the basis for Labour's future development more than anything else. Trying to urge their supporters to read it rather than the New Labour 'just smile and deliver leaflets' model.
What does it say about the Labour party that Abbott who doesn't seem able to even master the Home Office brief is replaced by someone who does not seem to be able to master basic human civilities? I mean pushing a blind man is just not socially acceptable, maybe Corbyn should give her the push!
On another note, am told Corbyn not helpful in Workington, since despite the Labour manifesto and the sitting MPs positions supporting nuclear Corbyn not trusted on this point. Can't believe it makes as much difference as in Copeland, but...
Laura K Tory this time I'd guess but normally Labour.
Massive embarrassment if they were to call it so wrong, on the other hand huge kudos should they be proved correct.
Squeaky bum time doesn't come close.
It's a small punt on the basis that the early Welsh polling 'might' be right and, as a former reporter on the South Wales Echo in Cardiff, I'd be delighted to get some money out of people in Swansea for the first time ever.
fair enough - can't see it myself, as labour did very well in the council elections in swansea this year.
also the south wales west polling subsamples (I know caveats apply etc) in 4 most recent polls
were
tory % of 43% 36% 26% 32%
labour% of 29% 37% 56% and 52%
That number is surely 0.0 voters per seat. I think this is the biggest red herring ever.
One technical issue that we've not discussed is the unwind of first-time incumbency bonus. There is lots of evidence, reinforced in 2015, that first-time incumbents get a bonus - people say "X hasn't done too badly, let's give them another term". The same research suggests that this declines over time - people gradually shift into "time to give someone ls a go" mood. (I've been there, got the T-shirt.) There were lots of first-time Tories from 2010 defending in 2015. It's possible that it's eroded somewhat, and that that's why ICM is showing a swing to Labour in Tory marginals at the same time as it's showing a swing to the Tories in Labour marginals.
This campaign has turned from one of the most boring to one of the most interesting in a few short weeks.
My other half's timeline is hilariously left wing right now, proper bubble immersion stuff - she's sensible enough to realise Labour probably won't win though.
That said, I'd still expect him to win with a comfortable four-figure majority.
And now she's starting to think - is he just after me for my money?
Would I be voting for Theresa May?
Yes I'll be voting Conservative.
Would I like a reminder tomorrow? No thanks not necessary.
I've just had a young man from Twickenham ...
etc etc
https://twitter.com/platosays
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Baldrick: Hold on. I've got this big growth in the middle of my face.
Blackadder: That's your nose, Baldrick. Now, "Any history of insanity in the family?"... Tell you what. I'll cross out the "in." "Any history of sanity in the family?" ... None whatsoever. Now, "Criminal record?"
Baldrick: Absolutely not.
Blackadder: Oh, come on, Baldrick, you're going to be an MP, for God's sake! Look, I'll just put "Fraud and sexual deviancy".
https://twitter.com/JamieRoss7/status/872434400457359361
Nos 74 and 75 below
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4578758/The-Mail-s-essential-tactical-voting-guide.html
The pattern we have seen isn't that unusual, it's just compressed in time. Go through the stages:
- New PM honeymoon, people project their hopes on to her but aren't paying much attention. Mega poll leads.
- Mid-term blues, voters don't like specific policies, want to express anger, want to make a point. The polls move from the government to the opposition, although most people aren't taking that much notice about what the opposition is actually proposing or how fit they are for government
- As the election approaches, people start paying a bit more attention.
- In the polling booth, you get swingback, because it's no longer a risk-free option to choose the opposition, it's a genuine choice, and the downsides of the opposition's policies and leaders now come into focus as the government's did earlier.
Normally all this takes three or four years. We're seeing it in two months, partly because the calling of the election was such a surprise.
Neither the peak Theresa May honeymoon period nor the peak mid-term opposition support level (i.e., about a week ago in this crazily compressed timeframe) should be seen as the likely final result. Instead it will be somewhere in-between, a bit better for the Conservatives than the recent polls as the swingback swings in.
(Might be total garbage, of course!)
It would be sort of difficult to propose a referendum to Remain after that if we're outside the EU at that point.
You could only have a further referendum with a "Remain" option is we chose to Remain at the referendum on the deal. You can only remain if you're in, and we'd not be in.
for miles around....
313 is magic number because there is literally zero chance of DUP/UUP allowing Corbyn to become PM.
If Corbyn could become PM in short-run he would have much bigger chance of winning another GE in Autumn as he would behave responsibly and people would get used to concept.
So vital for Con that they get 313 - then if May resigns whoever replaces her takes over as PM and goes into 2nd GE as PM.
Who swallowed a packet of seeds
Big tufts of grass
Shot out of his arse
And his cock was covered in weeds
- from David Niven's 1930s MGM screen test. Or so he claimed