I'm in Edinburgh North and Leith and we are receiving much larger amounts of Tory election literature than I received in 2015 in Newton Abbot (which in 2010 went Conservative with a majority of just 523).
Good morning fellow Tories and other PBers. A view from North Britain. There seems to be a universally held view both on here and among the chattering classes at Westminster, especially among the media that Theresa May has had a terrible campaign and Jeremy Corbyn has had a superb campaign.
Let's face it, if she gets anything like a 100 majority and probably more tomorrow evening and into Friday, she and her backroom team will have in fact played a blinder and it will have shown that as with 2015, the chatterati is in fact completely out of touch with real people on the ground.
Several of us yesterday posted on here that lots of ordinary people, not traditional Tory voters, have expressed admiration and support for Theresa May, in large part because she is not seen as part of the chattering class and Westminster chummy types.
Hmmm - May's ratings have fallen markedly over the course of the election campaign. But, as discussed here many times, crushingly mediocre beats toxically catastrophic every single day of the week.
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
Lots of orange squares about in Abingdon (kids are at school there), I agree... but then there were in 2010 and 2015 too.
The Lib Dem weakness in OxWAB is not in Abingdon or the Oxford wards but in the 5 Cherwell wards that are part of the constituency , Kidlington and Kirtlington will probably see the Conservatives home unless the Lib Dems can get the Labour voters in Jericho to switch .
Any thoughts on Cambridge Mark ?
Close but Labour hold
Mark
What is your view on Lib Dems apparent move away from being equi-distant from Labour and Conservative and instead under Farron becoming Labour Lite under a 'progressive' banner?
At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.
Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not being obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.
ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.
Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not being obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.
Lol just the ticket to attract the white van man vote
Of course the truth is actually that they simply don't need to go on things like radio or TV anymore, there's many more ways of getting out there.
They may not need to, but we need them to. We can't have another election like this with every voter voting on the worldview created by their own private internet bubble. TV and radio set pieces create a common denominator which looks the same to everyone. I have been converted to the view that proper US style one on one leader debates are essential (and I wish Lab had taken up my suggestion of trolling May by putting compulsory debates in future elections in their manifesto).
Since others are doing so, I'll name the seats I'm expecting the Lib Dems to take. I expect the Lib Dems to take (in decreasing order of probability) Orkney & Shetland, Edinburgh West, Twickenham, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion. Anything after that is a bonus. Everything after Edinburgh West in my mind is by no means assured.
I think I've managed to convince everyone on this site that Edinburgh West is a nailed on LibDem gain, and I hope I won't end up with egg on my face on Friday!
Why do you think the LibDems won't do better in Scotland? They "won" North East Fife in the locals last month, and made gains in a few other seats where they also did well in the Holyrood elections: Argyll & Bute, and CS&ER for example. The SNP is also well down on where they were in 2016.
I can imagine the Lib Dems doing better in Scotland. But I don't think it's more likely than not that they will do so. Reading across from different elections is very dangerous.
At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.
Of the outsiders, there's Greening and Patel. I'd much prefer the former since I'm not a Tory. Any reasons why either of them would garner little support? Then possibly also Jesse Norman and Liz Truss. I always forget who Liz is but she seems to be quite a good performer.
I'm don't think any of those names have made much impact, although that might change. Keep an eye on Esther McVey; who will be back in the Commons after tomorrow, and who deserves a senior post.
A tragic and sobering fact that reveals so much about London as an international city is that most of those killed in the Westminster and Borough terror attacks were not UK citizens.
The TudorRose transitional vote model has thrown out its final prediction! Conservative majority of 86 and the most marginal result... Dudley North (Lab hold by 17).
ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.
Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.
She doesn't have the right "equipment" to be leader.
Tory manifesto Says the Tory party will adhere to human rights act.
1 scat before election...she says if the human rights laws get in the way we will change be them burning manifesto it says they will not repeal or replace.
I'm forecasting a major PB Tory reverse ferret on Osborne today.
George Osborne bad to George Osborne good.
Have you read it? Vote Conservative ... but Theresa May is wrong about everything and has a vacuous manifesto. Here are a couple of people who'd do a better job. I paraphrase but that's the gist.
I've posted about there being no youth surge to help Corbyn before, but I also strongly believe that older voters will come out in record numbers tomorrow to help Mrs May.
There was a Yougov survey post 2015 election which reported 45% of the over 60 vote went to the Conservatives. Though we usually measure the age groups as 65 and above I really expect Tories to grab somewhere between 60 and 70% of the 60+ vote this time for the following reasons: 1.May is old fashioned, over 60 herself, fairly 'normal' and very what you see is what you get. A far cry from the spin and metropolitan modernity of upper class Cameron. They will overlook the dementia tax debacle. 2.They want Brexit delivered. They didn't vote for it a year ago to give up on it now. Only May can make it happen. 3.They hate Corbyn and his wish to bring back the worst part of the 1970s and his lack of patriotism. He may be their age but he is not one of them. He will raid their pensions, raise their taxes and open the floodgates to further immigration.
A 65% Tory vote this time would be an increase of 3 million votes on 2015! and that's before you factor in the slightly higher turnout amongst this age group, which was around 78% last time but I expect to increase to over the 80% mark given the reasons already stated. My hunch is that this will push the Tories towards 1992 vote numbers, though they may fall just short due to a decline in the Southeast.
A tragic and sobering fact that reveals so much about London as an international city is that most of those killed in the Westminster and Borough terror attacks were not UK citizens.
ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.
Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.
She's a lawyer who has turned career politicians and knows how to stick to her brief. I would not bet that much she is a convinced lefty.
The next Labour leader will not be based in London, IMO.
Interesting convo with colleague, said he was voting Labour then came out with a whole bunch of stuff to the right of UKIP. I pointed out to him that voting Labour with those views was ludicrous in the extreme.
Of the outsiders, there's Greening and Patel. I'd much prefer the former since I'm not a Tory. Any reasons why either of them would garner little support? Then possibly also Jesse Norman and Liz Truss. I always forget who Liz is but she seems to be quite a good performer.
I'm don't think any of those names have made much impact, although that might change. Keep an eye on Esther McVey; who will be back in the Commons after tomorrow, and who deserves a senior post.
The TudorRose transitional vote model has thrown out its final prediction! Conservative majority of 86 and the most marginal result... Dudley North (Lab hold by 17).
Ian Austin's twitter feed suggest Dudley North looking... difficult.
Also, further to whoever mentioned that book (The Righteous Mind, upon checking) I wonder if the key left/right difference is arguments based on pathos or logos, respectively.
ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.
Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.
She's a lawyer who has turned career politicians and knows how to stick to her brief. I would not bet that much she is a convinced lefty.
The next Labour leader will not be based in London, IMO.
SO I agree with you on the numbers and I am expecting SCons to reach double figures. I disagree that May will be in trouble unless she makes a total bollocks of Brexit.
My "Portillo moment(s)" will be in order of pleasure Alex Salmond loses Gordon Angus Robertson loses Moray Pete Wishart loses Perth and the icing on the cake would be if Dr Sir Vince Cable fails to win back Twickenham. I will never forgive him for the part he and his fellow Glasgow Labour councillors played in the destruction of some of Glasgow's greatest schools in 1973 simply because of class hatred.
My forecast for tomorrow, not sure if the maths stacks up:
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened. The real fun begins on 9th June. Batten down the hatches and hold plenty of cash!
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
I think the awful council performance for the yellows in E Dumb has muddied the tactical waters for Jo too much.
@jimwaterson: Two Tory attack lines that seem to be really cutting through, according to Labour people: the "garden tax" and criticism of Diane Abbott.
Also, further to whoever mentioned that book (The Righteous Mind, upon checking) I wonder if the key left/right difference is arguments based on pathos or logos, respectively.
Not sure, he is considering Lib Dem or spoiling his ballot. I think I've pushed him out the Labour column. God I hate Corbyn, has it shown through here in the last few weeks at all ?
Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.
To be fair, he is by a long stretch the nastiest of them all, and rightly hated by Labour MPs.
Yes, I think I'd agree with that, Richard.
Although the funny thing is that McDonnell is the only politician I can remember who has ever thanked me (well, my tax demographic) for paying the enormous amount of income tax that I pay.
Everyone else utterly hates me for paying a lot of tax, and thinks I should be punished for doing so by paying even more.
Whoever gets in on Thursday (Tories 100ish majority IMO) should reflect on the fact that about 1% of us pay 25% of the income tax. If we ever get fed up with being hated for doing so, and if we leave, the exchequer will be utterly fucked.
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
Quite a few of those look forlorn, but I would have thought Colchester is overly optimistic, with no UKIP standing this time.
Wasn't there somebody saying on here that there was no hope at all for the LibDems in Southwark?
Gin138: think you will find it misleading, announced he was speaking at Weaver Vale, marginal taken by Tories last time. Box at right of screen was apparently wrong. Shows you cannot trust the media?
The TudorRose transitional vote model has thrown out its final prediction! Conservative majority of 86 and the most marginal result... Dudley North (Lab hold by 17).
Ian Austin's twitter feed suggest Dudley North looking... difficult.
Thanks! I keep tweaking the model but - now I'm just ready for the results (oh - and remembering to vote, of course!)
Of the outsiders, there's Greening and Patel. I'd much prefer the former since I'm not a Tory. Any reasons why either of them would garner little support? Then possibly also Jesse Norman and Liz Truss. I always forget who Liz is but she seems to be quite a good performer.
I'm don't think any of those names have made much impact, although that might change. Keep an eye on Esther McVey; who will be back in the Commons after tomorrow, and who deserves a senior post.
The definition of a nasty bitch.
Another Tory that's never had it difficult in life. Trust me if you were down with a disability esther McVey would kick you harder. Tories have no love or empathy for people who sufferjust a statistic that needs to be removed
ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.
Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.
She's a lawyer who has turned career politicians and knows how to stick to her brief. I would not bet that much she is a convinced lefty.
The next Labour leader will not be based in London, IMO.
Thornbury claims she was brought up on a council estate - unlike Corbyn. So a genuine lefty.
Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.
To be fair, he is by a long stretch the nastiest of them all, and rightly hated by Labour MPs.
Yes, I think I'd agree with that, Richard.
Although the funny thing is that McDonnell is the only politician I can remember who has ever thanked me (well, my tax demographic) for paying the enormous amount of income tax that I pay.
Everyone else utterly hates me for paying a lot of tax, and thinks I should be punished for doing so by paying even more.
Whoever gets in on Thursday (Tories 100ish majority IMO) should reflect on the fact that about 1% of us pay 25% of the income tax. If we ever get fed up with being hated for doing so, and if we leave, the exchequer will be utterly fucked.
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
I think the awful council performance for the yellows in E Dumb has muddied the tactical waters for Jo too much.
In East Dunbarton the Lib Dems gained 2 council seats , how was that awful ?
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
Quite a few of those look forlorn, but I would have thought Colchester is overly optimistic, with no UKIP standing this time.
Wasn't there somebody saying on here that there was no hope at all for the LibDems in Southwark?
How is Devon looking, I'm on the Tories odds on there generally for a fair few ton...
While I hope you're right, I think he'll be back in parliament on June 9th. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the only LibDem gain from the Conservatives.
Why?
1. Heathrow, which is much more toxic in Twickenham than Richmond. 2. It's Remainia Central. 3. It only need a small amount of tactical voting from Labour-ites, and Vince is (let's be honest) a socialist not a liberal.
If Cable wins and Farron and Lamb lose Vince C will be odds on to be next LD leader
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
I said the other day they might just be able to win 20 seats on a very good night.
@jimwaterson: Two Tory attack lines that seem to be really cutting through, according to Labour people: the "garden tax" and criticism of Diane Abbott.
"Garden tax" is a week too late.
Abbot has been a running joke on the doorstep since the police numbers.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
This will cause a meltdown at the Spectator. Very good news for France, though. Lucky them.
Indeed. What price a UK En Marche? Forward!
If a leftish party emerged in the UK that looked like it might be electorally successful, wouldn't the hard left just penetrate that party as well as / instead of Labour?
Reminds me of an Emerson poem.
They reckon ill who leave me out; When me they fly, I am the wings.
My forecast for tomorrow, not sure if the maths stacks up:
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened. The real fun begins on 9th June. Batten down the hatches and hold plenty of cash!
I think you will be right tories 46-48%, Labour 30 - 33% , i reckon tories around 390 - 400 seats, labour 170 - 180
Wishful thinking?</blockquote
No I think swing back is happening, the Corbyn surge is over, the mood has changed with the terror attacks, keeping safe is motivating the voters, and Corbyn and Abbot and Mc Donnell don't inspire voters to feel safe. Fear motivates voters, they are returning to nurse
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
I'm still waiting for the EU to collapse as that was apparently the reason why we should leave.
The EU has pulled together after Brexit which is apparently a reason why it's a club we don't want to be part of.
surely its a club they dont want us to be part of ?
for all your woolly sentiment the lack of movement on the EU side to re-engage with UK and find an accommodation is the most noticeable event of the last year
had it been France they would be falling over themselves to keep her on board
all animals are equal but some are more equal than others
The big test for the EU now will be Beppe Grillo in Italy next year
A tragic and sobering fact that reveals so much about London as an international city is that most of those killed in the Westminster and Borough terror attacks were not UK citizens.
What will be interesting tomorrow will be to see how LD hq move the troops abt around the sw london area. That should give a good indication of how things are going.for them.
With regard to the next LD leader,I have taken Vince Cable,fav to win Twickenham, at 50-1,and Simon Hughes,at 40-1(Hughes is now far behind Neil Coyle in the Bermondsey market) ,the basis being the 2nd and 4th favourites,Norman Lamb and Tom Brake respectively, at the time were likely to crash out.It still looks that way The updated market still has Lamb at 9-2-a bet if you think he will survive -but Jo Swinson is favourite,best priced at 3-1 with PP, and is maybe their best bet.Like Labour,the LDs might just come to a conclusion that they need a woman leader and the LDs have a history of sexual harassment and impropriety.At GE2015,they were the only party to be all male.They could decide a woman is needed.All this is on the assumption she will gain East Dumbartonshire. However,if the LDs really go tits up at this election,it is a case of who survives.Nick Clegg has proven he can stave off Labour in Sheffield Hallam already so has past form, and ,as long as he gets the Tory remainers on his side,the 4-7 on him retaining Hallam this time seems more than fair.Every tree hugger-there are a lot of us about- will back him too.Sheffield council are pulling up beautiful,majestic,road trees,not if they are diseased or have rampant roots,which is correct procedure,but as a measure to combat austerity.This is the biggest act of civil vandalism this century and Clegg has positioned himself on the side of the trees.Clegg strikes me as the absolute survivor. If it's a case of last man standing for the LDs,Nick Clegg is like bindweed which is impossible to get rid of so Ladbrokes 16-1 on Clegg for next leader completes my 4-way dutch in this market. Ed Davey would a player at 12-1 but his likelihood of winning Kingston and Wallington means,on balance,he is more likely to be a non-runner than not so you are risking your stake as I did with Simon Hughes. The next LIb Dem market has lots of value depending on the GE2017 results.
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
I think the awful council performance for the yellows in E Dumb has muddied the tactical waters for Jo too much.
In East Dunbsrton the Lib Dems gained 2 council seats , how was that awful ?
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
Quite a few of those look forlorn, but I would have thought Colchester is overly optimistic, with no UKIP standing this time.
Wasn't there somebody saying on here that there was no hope at all for the LibDems in Southwark?
How is Devon looking, I'm on the Tories odds on there generally for a fair few ton...
Well, Farron hasn't been seen in the SW outside Bristol for 4 weeks. So....I think we generally look in fine fettle.
Plymouth is going to be tougher. But there was very little LibDem vote there for Labour to steal, but big UKIP positions. Tories basically over-achieved last time, so it was always going to be a fight. Can't imagine the last few days have been good for Labour there though in winning Kippers over (but haven't been part of the campaign there , so just extrapolation....)
ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.
Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.
She's a lawyer who has turned career politicians and knows how to stick to her brief. I would not bet that much she is a convinced lefty.
The next Labour leader will not be based in London, IMO.
Thornbury claims she was brought up on a council estate - unlike Corbyn. So a genuine lefty.
Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...
That was the one broadcast to 6 cities simultaneously as well as Facebook live, where it was apparently watched by 1.5 million people. The idea is to show tremendous enthusiasm to a huge social media audience - makes more sense than May's approach of little local gatherings IMO, but we'll see.
Corbyn's final schedule is: Glasgow Central, Weaver Vale, Clwyd West, Watford, Harrow East, and the final rally in Islington South.
Meanwhile we're pushing hard in Broxtowe. My final pitch is here:
www.nickpalmer.org.uk
The constituency has more Labour posters and campaigners than I ever saw even in 1997, and the Tories have been busy focusing on what we believe to be a doomed effort to take Gedling and Nottingham South. Does any of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!
Of the outsiders, there's Greening and Patel. I'd much prefer the former since I'm not a Tory. Any reasons why either of them would garner little support? Then possibly also Jesse Norman and Liz Truss. I always forget who Liz is but she seems to be quite a good performer.
I'm don't think any of those names have made much impact, although that might change. Keep an eye on Esther McVey; who will be back in the Commons after tomorrow, and who deserves a senior post.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
This will cause a meltdown at the Spectator. Very good news for France, though. Lucky them.
Indeed. What price a UK En Marche? Forward!
If a leftish party emerged in the UK that looked like it might be electorally successful, wouldn't the hard left just penetrate that party as well as / instead of Labour?
Reminds me of an Emerson poem.
They reckon ill who leave me out; When me they fly, I am the wings.
His (Emerson's) grammar is atrocious - did they not teach him proper sentence construction?
Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...
That was the one broadcast to 6 cities simultaneously as well as Facebook live, where it was apparently watched by 1.5 million people. The idea is to show tremendous enthusiasm to a huge social media audience - makes more sense than May's approach of little local gatherings IMO, but we'll see.
Corbyn's final schedule is: Glasgow Central, Weaver Vale, Clwyd West, Watford, Harrow East, and the final rally in Islington South.
Meanwhile we're pushing hard in Broxtowe. My final pitch is here:
www.nickpalmer.org.uk
The constituency has more Labour posters and campaigners than I ever saw even in 1997, and the Tories have been busy focusing on what we believe to be a doomed effort to take Gedling and Nottingham South. Does any of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!
But how many of those 1.5 million were a) under 18 b) 18 plus, but not registered to vote where they will be tomorrow?
Betfair Tory majority and most seats both coming in further. Put another 500 on the former earlier as couldnot wait for Jack w piece....
Oh dear ....
They'll be tears before bedtime ....
This is how bubbles form. People start by betting on the fundamentals -- polls and canvass reports (and Facebook views) -- but end up betting on price movements.
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
I think the awful council performance for the yellows in E Dumb has muddied the tactical waters for Jo too much.
In East Dunbsrton the Lib Dems gained 2 council seats , how was that awful ?
1st pref counts. Murky tactical situation.
worse 1st pref counts last time and just as murky tactical situation last time .
Although the funny thing is that McDonnell is the only politician I can remember who has ever thanked me (well, my tax demographic) for paying the enormous amount of income tax that I pay.
Everyone else utterly hates me for paying a lot of tax, and thinks I should be punished for doing so by paying even more.
Whoever gets in on Thursday (Tories 100ish majority IMO) should reflect on the fact that about 1% of us pay 25% of the income tax. If we ever get fed up with being hated for doing so, and if we leave, the exchequer will be utterly fucked.
This is why the most vital economic task for the long-term good of the country is to find some way to help the middle 50% of the income distribution to earn more money. The tax base is too narrow.
Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...
That was the one broadcast to 6 cities simultaneously as well as Facebook live, where it was apparently watched by 1.5 million people. The idea is to show tremendous enthusiasm to a huge social media audience - makes more sense than May's approach of little local gatherings IMO, but we'll see.
Corbyn's final schedule is: Glasgow Central, Weaver Vale, Clwyd West, Watford, Harrow East, and the final rally in Islington South.
Meanwhile we're pushing hard in Broxtowe. My final pitch is here:
www.nickpalmer.org.uk
The constituency has more Labour posters and campaigners than I ever saw even in 1997, and the Tories have been busy focusing on what we believe to be a doomed effort to take Gedling and Nottingham South. Does any of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!
What's your prediction for the election result, Nick?
And the best of luck with your efforts today.
This reminds me of the Gore and Clinton campaigns. Enormous numbers of people got involved who realised something was very seriously wrong in the country and that a right-wing victory would be disastrous. Let's hope this time we win. A tough goal indeed. But if we don't, horrors await.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
This will cause a meltdown at the Spectator. Very good news for France, though. Lucky them.
Indeed. What price a UK En Marche? Forward!
If a leftish party emerged in the UK that looked like it might be electorally successful, wouldn't the hard left just penetrate that party as well as / instead of Labour?
Reminds me of an Emerson poem.
They reckon ill who leave me out; When me they fly, I am the wings.
Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...
That was the one broadcast to 6 cities simultaneously as well as Facebook live, where it was apparently watched by 1.5 million people. The idea is to show tremendous enthusiasm to a huge social media audience - makes more sense than May's approach of little local gatherings IMO, but we'll see.
Corbyn's final schedule is: Glasgow Central, Weaver Vale, Clwyd West, Watford, Harrow East, and the final rally in Islington South.
Meanwhile we're pushing hard in Broxtowe. My final pitch is here:
www.nickpalmer.org.uk
The constituency has more Labour posters and campaigners than I ever saw even in 1997, and the Tories have been busy focusing on what we believe to be a doomed effort to take Gedling and Nottingham South. Does any of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!
But how many of those 1.5 million were a) under 18 b) 18 plus, but not registered to vote where they will be tomorrow?
Who knows? Not me. But it's an interesting alternative strategy for campaigning. If it works, everyone will do it next time, in the same way that we've all been copying the Tory microtargeting from 2015.
Flicked over to Sky News before Daily Politics started and Corbyn was doing a rally at a place with a massive Lab majority. I don't get it...
That was the one broadcast to 6 cities simultaneously as well as Facebook live, where it was apparently watched by 1.5 million people. The idea is to show tremendous enthusiasm to a huge social media audience - makes more sense than May's approach of little local gatherings IMO, but we'll see.
Corbyn's final schedule is: Glasgow Central, Weaver Vale, Clwyd West, Watford, Harrow East, and the final rally in Islington South.
Meanwhile we're pushing hard in Broxtowe. My final pitch is here:
www.nickpalmer.org.uk
The constituency has more Labour posters and campaigners than I ever saw even in 1997, and the Tories have been busy focusing on what we believe to be a doomed effort to take Gedling and Nottingham South. Does any of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!
You might cut Soubry's majority but end up losing Gedling and Nottingham South, we shall see
Of the outsiders, there's Greening and Patel. I'd much prefer the former since I'm not a Tory. Any reasons why either of them would garner little support? Then possibly also Jesse Norman and Liz Truss. I always forget who Liz is but she seems to be quite a good performer.
I'm don't think any of those names have made much impact, although that might change. Keep an eye on Esther McVey; who will be back in the Commons after tomorrow, and who deserves a senior post.
The definition of a nasty bitch.
Another Tory that's never had it difficult in life. Trust me if you were down with a disability esther McVey would kick you harder. Tories have no love or empathy for people who sufferjust a statistic that needs to be removed
Comments
They have been out delivering in all weathers
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
Hyacinth Bucket for PM !
Weaver vale 12pm.
Aberconwy - colwyn bay at 2pm.
http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/jeremy-corbyn-north-wales-today-13149495
it has no relevance elsewhere
JC is a cult figure and ridiculous
I will be interested to see how Canada goes. Just eyeing the markets now.
Says the Tory party will adhere to human rights act.
1 scat before election...she says if the human rights laws get in the way we will change be them burning manifesto it says they will not repeal or replace.
A home secretary for 6 years is a weather vain.
There was a Yougov survey post 2015 election which reported 45% of the over 60 vote went to the Conservatives. Though we usually measure the age groups as 65 and above I really expect Tories to grab somewhere between 60 and 70% of the 60+ vote this time for the following reasons:
1.May is old fashioned, over 60 herself, fairly 'normal' and very what you see is what you get. A far cry from the spin and metropolitan modernity of upper class Cameron. They will overlook the dementia tax debacle.
2.They want Brexit delivered. They didn't vote for it a year ago to give up on it now. Only May can make it happen.
3.They hate Corbyn and his wish to bring back the worst part of the 1970s and his lack of patriotism. He may be their age but he is not one of them. He will raid their pensions, raise their taxes and open the floodgates to further immigration.
A 65% Tory vote this time would be an increase of 3 million votes on 2015! and that's before you factor in the slightly higher turnout amongst this age group, which was around 78% last time but I expect to increase to over the 80% mark given the reasons already stated. My hunch is that this will push the Tories towards 1992 vote numbers, though they may fall just short due to a decline in the Southeast.
Jesus.
The next Labour leader will not be based in London, IMO.
Why would longer prison sentences deter terrorists in Manchester or London who want to blow themselves up?
I pointed out to him that voting Labour with those views was ludicrous in the extreme.
Also, further to whoever mentioned that book (The Righteous Mind, upon checking) I wonder if the key left/right difference is arguments based on pathos or logos, respectively.
My "Portillo moment(s)" will be in order of pleasure
Alex Salmond loses Gordon
Angus Robertson loses Moray
Pete Wishart loses Perth and the icing on the cake would be if Dr Sir Vince Cable fails to win back Twickenham. I will never forgive him for the part he and his fellow Glasgow Labour councillors played in the destruction of some of Glasgow's greatest schools in 1973 simply because of class hatred.
Everyone else utterly hates me for paying a lot of tax, and thinks I should be punished for doing so by paying even more.
Whoever gets in on Thursday (Tories 100ish majority IMO) should reflect on the fact that about 1% of us pay 25% of the income tax. If we ever get fed up with being hated for doing so, and if we leave, the exchequer will be utterly fucked.
@Casino_Royale - you're a very naughty boy.
Wasn't there somebody saying on here that there was no hope at all for the LibDems in Southwark?
Another Tory that's never had it difficult in life. Trust me if you were down with a disability esther McVey would kick you harder.
Tories have no love or empathy for people who sufferjust a statistic that needs to be removed
He was in weaver vale. Stop lying to create a narrative
Abbot has been a running joke on the doorstep since the police numbers.
Mr. Fletcher, cheers for that post. Rather tricky trying to assess anything about Northern Ireland.
They'll be tears before bedtime ....
Reminds me of an Emerson poem.
They reckon ill who leave me out;
When me they fly, I am the wings.
The updated market still has Lamb at 9-2-a bet if you think he will survive -but Jo Swinson is favourite,best priced at 3-1 with PP, and is maybe their best bet.Like Labour,the LDs might just come to a conclusion that they need a woman leader and the LDs have a history of sexual harassment and impropriety.At GE2015,they were the only party to be all male.They could decide a woman is needed.All this is on the assumption she will gain East Dumbartonshire.
However,if the LDs really go tits up at this election,it is a case of who survives.Nick Clegg has proven he can stave off Labour in Sheffield Hallam already so has past form, and ,as long as he gets the Tory remainers on his side,the 4-7 on him retaining Hallam this time seems more than fair.Every tree hugger-there are a lot of us about- will back him too.Sheffield council are pulling up beautiful,majestic,road trees,not if they are diseased or have rampant roots,which is correct procedure,but as a measure to combat austerity.This is the biggest act of civil vandalism this century and Clegg has positioned himself on the side of the trees.Clegg strikes me as the absolute survivor.
If it's a case of last man standing for the LDs,Nick Clegg is like bindweed which is impossible to get rid of so Ladbrokes 16-1 on Clegg for next leader completes my 4-way dutch in this market.
Ed Davey would a player at 12-1 but his likelihood of winning Kingston and Wallington means,on balance,he is more likely to be a non-runner than not so you are risking your stake as I did with Simon Hughes.
The next LIb Dem market has lots of value depending on the GE2017 results.
Plymouth is going to be tougher. But there was very little LibDem vote there for Labour to steal, but big UKIP positions. Tories basically over-achieved last time, so it was always going to be a fight. Can't imagine the last few days have been good for Labour there though in winning Kippers over (but haven't been part of the campaign there , so just extrapolation....)
you know a big place in Surrey
What will Corbyn supporters be termed after defeat?
Corbyn's final schedule is:
Glasgow Central, Weaver Vale, Clwyd West, Watford, Harrow East, and the final rally in Islington South.
Meanwhile we're pushing hard in Broxtowe. My final pitch is here:
www.nickpalmer.org.uk
The constituency has more Labour posters and campaigners than I ever saw even in 1997, and the Tories have been busy focusing on what we believe to be a doomed effort to take Gedling and Nottingham South. Does any of this stuff make a difference? Search me, but we can only do our best!
Tut tut!
Poster after poster saying he's in safe seats is so please not true.
Corbyn has visited more Tory seats than labour held seats since the campaign starts.
If Corbyn loses but sticks around, will the PLP split? We may find out.
And the best of luck with your efforts today.
This reminds me of the Gore and Clinton campaigns. Enormous numbers of people got involved who realised something was very seriously wrong in the country and that a right-wing victory would be disastrous. Let's hope this time we win. A tough goal indeed. But if we don't, horrors await.
Evershed family motto.
Exhibit A. m'lud.....