The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
I don't think that's quite true. Most people in this country earn less than 80k and quite a few of them, maybe even a majority, believe the country is better served by a Conservative government at the moment rather than one lead by Jeremy Corbyn...
Labour does not have a monopoly on morality.
97% of them do in fact.
The other 3% of them don't make anything like enough to pay for everything to which Travel Junkie feels entitled. There is an upper limit to how much it is feasible for a state to spend, which is determined by how money its people have and how they will react if you take too much of it away.
That's poo. Students in Scotland don't have to pay tuition fees and yet things still run and the motorways aren't getting potholed. The rich throughout Britain have got a lot richer in recent decades. If they and their filthy institutions such as the banks gave some of their ill-gotten spoils back, it would be easy for the government to fund tuition fees and mandatory student maintenance grants as they did in the 1970s. It could easily fund proper social care without charge for the elderly too. What's changed since then is the result of massive heists such as income tax cuts for the rich, inheritance tax cuts for the rich, privatisation, and normalisation of huge debt as soon as people turn 18. Reversing even a decade of two of robbery this redistribution of wealth to the extremely rich would easily pay for everything in the Labour manifesto. The only ones strutting around "entitled" are the rich.
At the risk of talking up my own candidate, I don't really see why Tom Elliott is over 2/1 against holding FST. It's true that there are more Nationalist voters in the seat and it is very much a two-horse race. But the SDLP core isn't going to drop any more and there was a higher combined Unionist vote in the Assembly election than the SF vote.
I accept Michelle Gildernew is favourite, but I'd say TE should be no more than 6/4 against.
Just don't ask me for a prediction on South Belfast. I haven't the foggiest notion.
South Belfast must be the most exciting seat in the entire UK.
It's genuinely fascinating. Without being party-political, almost anyone on the ballot would make a decent MP and I wouldn't be surprised at any of FOUR candidates getting in. Makes tactical voting very, very difficult.
And also unnecessary?
Oh totally. But in NI if a voter plumped for the 'wrong' candidate from 'their side' and themmuns get in, the voter will attack everyone involved in politics for not telling them 'correctly' who to vote for. I don't get real abuse on the door from SDLP or even SF voters. It's DUPers who burn my ears and say I 'should be ashamed' of being a UUP man.
If I had my toes held to the fire, I'd say SDLP hold but I genuinely wouldn't be surprised by any result between DUP/SF/SDLP/All.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
That would be the Lib Dems. Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.
Very sad that the home secretary for 6 years who didn't have to face conservative members to leader has decreased police numbers resources as home secretary and now has increased terrorism and u-turned on many manifesto policies plus given no policies on key issues without details.
I have no problem with this - she's more than entitled to do so.
Yes. I think that survivors of atrocities should get extra tolerance when they say what conclusions it's led them to (in the same way though somewhat less partisan, Jo Cox's widower has been pushing the sort of things she believed in). Of course it doesn't necessarily make them right but they deserve a decent hearing.
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
I think the awful council performance for the yellows in E Dumb has muddied the tactical waters for Jo too much.
In East Dunbarton the Lib Dems gained 2 council seats , how was that awful ?
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Remarkable claim from the Survation guy that even rowing youth turnout back to 2015 levels only changes their forecast by a per cent or two
His reputation is on the line as are others. Some polling companies will be in real trouble after tomorrow.
For the first time I feel the narrative is changing and todays Evening Standard endorsing Theresa May and traducing labour policies by the IFS must have some traction in London.
The movememt of the leaders, the reports of a confident Theresa May from the journalists travelling with her, the anecdotal evidence of a failing labour campaign that may have peaked too soon, and Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
That would be the Lib Dems. Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.
Remind me, what was the tax free allowance when the LibDems left the Coalition? And what is it now? How much have the Conservatives increased the amount you can earn since gaining a majority?
The Conservatives are still the party that wants to take people out of tax.
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Betfair Tory majority and most seats both coming in further. Put another 500 on the former earlier as couldnot wait for Jack w piece....
Oh dear ....
They'll be tears before bedtime ....
Hope not! I'm just taking the view that with only a few to go, we've not had a single poll (since god knows when) with the Tories not in the lead (however small) and I only need a majority of 2 to win on my bet.
Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour hold
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North West, the region was solidly Leave last year but we shall see
Remarkable claim from the Survation guy that even rowing youth turnout back to 2015 levels only changes their forecast by a per cent or two
So, why the large divergence from other polls like comres and ICM? Tough being a pollster
Sadly the guy was the ultimate pollster anorak and was incapable of giving any sort of clear explanation or of getting even near the point in the time allotted by Mr Neil. I doubt Survation will be sending him anywhere near a TV studio again, if they have any sense.
Remarkable claim from the Survation guy that even rowing youth turnout back to 2015 levels only changes their forecast by a per cent or two
His reputation is on the line as are others. Some polling companies will be in real trouble after tomorrow.
For the first time I feel the narrative is changing and todays Evening Standard endorsing Theresa May and traducing labour policies by the IFS must have some traction in London.
The movememt of the leaders, the reports of a confident Theresa May from the journalists travelling with her, the anecdotal evidence of a failing labour campaign that may have peaked too soon, and Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme
Evening standard has always endorsed the Tories. They've never endorsed another party even for mayor.
I have no problem with this - she's more than entitled to do so.
Yes. I think that survivors of atrocities should get extra tolerance when they say what conclusions it's led them to (in the same way though somewhat less partisan, Jo Cox's widower has been pushing the sort of things she believed in). Of course it doesn't necessarily make them right but they deserve a decent hearing.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
That would be the Lib Dems. Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.
Didn't it rise last year?
The Tories aren't dumb - they're more than happy to take on policies from other parties when they're proven to be electorally successful.
Just for a laugh... does anyone think the Tories could win Rochdale? Surely the anti-Tory vote will split quite a bit and this has never been as firmly Labour as some suggest and some parts did used to be quite blue (Old Littleborough and Saddleworth). I might have a wee tickle.
I wouldn't mind Danczuk winning there, OK he's had a few issues but I think his work into the grooming scandal has almost broken him. I'd have a hard think about my vote there.
I'm struggling to see Danczuk winning but it's his candidacy which makes me wonder if the Tories can come through the middle. Of course, a sitting MP can spring a surprise under a new label.
Backed No Safety Car at 3 (Ladbrokes) for Canada. Checking Wikipedia, seems there's only been 2 of the last 7 races to feature one, and weather forecast is for it to be cloudy but dry.
Looks good value - though I hate relying on this year's crop of youngsters not to put it in the wall...
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour hold
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North West
It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
I’ll be flicking between the two, until I finally give up on Aunty’s sluggishness with results and constantly missing declarations.
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
I think the awful council performance for the yellows in E Dumb has muddied the tactical waters for Jo too much.
In East Dunbarton the Lib Dems gained 2 council seats , how was that awful ?
I think Nicolson will hold on, he seems very affable and is a recognisable figure. He always knew it would be tough to keep the seat so my guess is he has worked alot harder than many of his colleagues.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
That would be the Lib Dems. Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.
Remind me, what was the tax free allowance when the LibDems left the Coalition? And what is it now? How much have the Conservatives increased the amount you can earn since gaining a majority?
The Conservatives are still the party that wants to take people out of tax.
A lot higher than it would have been without the Lib Dems. To the tune of thousands. Have a read of the 2010 Tory manifesto and the 2010 Lib Dem one. And yes, when the Lib Dem policy proved to be both successful and popular, the Tories were eager to take credit for it and keep it going. Doesn't make it retrospectively their policy or idea, though. Rewriting history is not a good thing to do.
Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax
Very sad that the home secretary for 6 years who didn't have to face conservative members to leader has decreased police numbers resources as home secretary and now has increased terrorism and u-turned on many manifesto policies plus given no policies on key issues without details.
Reward - pm.
Churchill's blundering as Chancellor in late '20s didn't stop him being made PM.
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax
Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax
If Jack's ARSE is out this evening, I don't want to steal his thunder, so FWIW, my election forecast:
Con 360 Lab 215 LD 6 Grn 1 UKIP 0 SNP 47 PC 3 NI 18
Con maj: 70
Based on: 45/36/8/2/3/4.2/0.6 plus finger in the air adjustment.
Betting wise, I have: LDs under 29 Cons under 398 Lab above 160 Con victories in Swansea West 2/1, Tooting 5/4, Carshalton and Wallington 9/5 Lab next leader: E. Thornberry 25/1, S. Kinnock 18/1, L. Nandy 14/1 LD next leader: N. Clegg, A. Carmichael (both 16/1)
And if anyone's interested in why I've chosen to vote the way I did two weeks ago by post, here it is:
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
That would be the Lib Dems. Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.
Didn't it rise last year?
The Tories aren't dumb - they're more than happy to take on policies from other parties when they're proven to be electorally successful.
Anyone heard from Charlotte Church lately? No? Good.
Charlotte Church has been locked in a cupboard with Philip Hammond for the duration. At least I expect that's why we've not seen our esteemed Chancellor on the telly. Nothing to do with planned tax rises.
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour hold
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North West
It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.
If Jack's ARSE is out this evening, I don't want to steal his thunder, so FWIW, my election forecast:
Con 360 Lab 215 LD 6 Grn 1 UKIP 0 SNP 47 PC 3 NI 18
Con maj: 70
Based on: 45/36/8/2/3/4.2/0.6 plus finger in the air adjustment.
Betting wise, I have: LDs under 29 Cons under 398 Lab above 160 Con victories in Swansea West 2/1, Tooting 5/4, Carshalton and Wallington 9/5 Lab next leader: E. Thornberry 25/1, S. Kinnock 18/1, L. Nandy 14/1 LD next leader: N. Clegg, A. Carmichael (both 16/1)
And if anyone's interested in why I've chosen to vote the way I did two weeks ago by post, here it is:
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
reason is they have people in over 300 counts (they use media studies students and lecturers)
Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
She'll be the main challenger to Corbyn's leadership next week ..... no chance she's allowed the chance to shine now.
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
ITV – Ozzy and Ed Balls. Should be a hoot!
Likely to mean I watch ITV this time (post DD & bongs) and only go to BBC during any adverts. Also avoids Jeremy Vine this way - yeehaw. The first 2 hours will be mainly waffle and 'too early to say' so rather hear that duo.
Shame they couldn't make a late transfer bid for Prof Curtice though!
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour hold
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North West
It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.
"There are no obvious reasons to presume that seats that the Lib Dems have a special interest in are going to differ particularly from the par."
There is one obvious reason, and that is Brexit.
The Lib Dems' focus on Brexit appears to have cut no ice in 640 seats. But that's not to say that it has bombed absolutely everywhere.
Cambridge, OxWAb, Twickenham, even Vauxhall are places where the Lib Dem message could work. I don't know whether it has or not: I can see the Lib Dems coming out of this with anywhere between 4 and 18 seats. But it's too early - a day and a half too early, to be precise - to predict a wipe-out with any certainty.
Why would any Remain voter support the Lib Dems now? Has that ship not sailed?
Weirdly, it would have made sense if UKIP had remained a force.
British Muslim leaders have refused to say the traditional prayers at the funerals of the London Bridge murderers. The Muslim Council of Britain says that their acts "alienate them from any association with our community for whom the inviolability of every human life is the founding principle." In other words, they are saying that they do not recognise the murderers as martyrs or even as Muslims. They are saying they will go to hell.
Any decent person will praise the MCB for doing the right thing. They are a credit not just to Islam but to Britain.
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
I very much doubt she would have agreed if asked. The number of senior backbenchers who were willing to say that they had no confidence in Corbyn as leader of his party is one of the many dogs that has not really barked in this campaign. They have stayed quiet and out of the way so that the blame falls where it belongs.
It has made May's use or non use of her own cabinet, especially her Chancellor, even odder. She had the potential to contrast a united team with one in disarray and has chosen not to use it preferring a very Presidential approach.
The trick is to make the people think there established. That's where the traitors come in.
What are you going on about?
I'm talking about traitors who campaign for conservatives trickingvoters who make less than 80k a year that a vote for a conservative will benefit them and their families. It's a lie.
Only the rich benefit under a Tory government people who make 80k plus a year. Nobody else benefits. These people are traitors to the nation.
Remind me, which Party has taken millions of the poorest out of the Income Tax net? (Hint: not Labour in its 13 years in power...)
That would be the Lib Dems. Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.
Didn't it rise last year?
The Tories aren't dumb - they're more than happy to take on policies from other parties when they're proven to be electorally successful.
Lol. is all
Nah, you have to give them credit for it. They've pinched half of Miliband's manifesto as well - but I'm not convinced that was quite as popular, to be fair.
Just for a laugh... does anyone think the Tories could win Rochdale?
No.
Go to Rochdale and have a look. It will be the last ever constituency to stop being Labour....
Rochdale was a little dem seat 10 years ago.
Stop trying to create a narrative
Who me? I only do narratives on shoes - ask around. It is true I assure you.... I am PB's leading shoe specialist, especially on slingbacks and wedges.
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour hold
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North West
It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.
Probably but Gedling was also a clear Leave win last year, Nottingham a narrow Leave wib
Gedling must be in trouble. If Labour lose Nottingham South we're probably heading for Blair 97' landslide territory so the fact NP says it's even in play makes me confident Labour are on the retreat.
Yes I think Gedling will fall, Nottingham South narrow Labour hold
I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.
Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North West
It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.
Bolsover?
(still can't see it, but....)
Isn't Nottingham South packed full of students?
It is during term time. I assume they are not there now as the one person I know at Nottingham is home.
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Ex Labour peer with 5.3m followers on twitter counters the luvvies
Lord SugarVerified account @Lord_Sugar 2m2 minutes ago More If you admire or trust me as an east end boy done good by honest hard graft .I sincetely beg or advise you not to vote for Corbyn #trustme
"There are no obvious reasons to presume that seats that the Lib Dems have a special interest in are going to differ particularly from the par."
There is one obvious reason, and that is Brexit.
The Lib Dems' focus on Brexit appears to have cut no ice in 640 seats. But that's not to say that it has bombed absolutely everywhere.
Cambridge, OxWAb, Twickenham, even Vauxhall are places where the Lib Dem message could work. I don't know whether it has or not: I can see the Lib Dems coming out of this with anywhere between 4 and 18 seats. But it's too early - a day and a half too early, to be precise - to predict a wipe-out with any certainty.
Why would any Remain voter support the Lib Dems now? Has that ship not sailed?
They're offering another referendum on the final deal.
Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%. Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage. Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!) As ever DYOR.
British Muslim leaders have refused to say the traditional prayers at the funerals of the London Bridge murderers. The Muslim Council of Britain says that their acts "alienate them from any association with our community for whom the inviolability of every human life is the founding principle." In other words, they are saying that they do not recognise the murderers as martyrs or even as Muslims. They are saying they will go to hell.
Mr. B, it was old man Button who did it last time. Also, VSC should help.
I know, Mr.D. Just makes it all the more galling. As I said, good odds... but not enough to banish my mental image of Stroll devaluing the Wall of Champions with his carbon fibre.
Tories now on 62% with Leave voters, 2% up on last week, Labour also slightly increased its lead with Remain voters but Tories doing better with Remain voters than Labour are with Leave voters. Suggests carnage for Labour in the North, the Midlands and Wales but Labour holding its own in London and maybe picking up a few Tory seats in the South http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/maps-charts-showing-state-play-eve-general-election/
Mr. B, it was galling. I've rarely been so irritated a bet didn't come off, because it was entirely unnecessary. Mistakes and bad luck happen, but when a driver's just stupid it's irksome.
Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
She may have been approached by team Corbyn, but declined. – Wouldn’t be the first time.
Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%. Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage. Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!) As ever DYOR.
Turnout sub 63% @ 9-4 and buying 63.5%+ on the spreads is a decent combo.
Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax
Property market crash looms.
Been looming for a while now, it will get blamed on Brexit but in reality is the normal cycle
Remarkable claim from the Survation guy that even rowing youth turnout back to 2015 levels only changes their forecast by a per cent or two
His reputation is on the line as are others. Some polling companies will be in real trouble after tomorrow.
For the first time I feel the narrative is changing and todays Evening Standard endorsing Theresa May and traducing labour policies by the IFS must have some traction in London.
The movememt of the leaders, the reports of a confident Theresa May from the journalists travelling with her, the anecdotal evidence of a failing labour campaign that may have peaked too soon, and Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme
So a former Tory Chancellor endorsing his own party is going to sway votes! Lol The Tories are going to do badly in a London because of more police cuts to come . Vote Tory to be less safe is hardly going to be a vote winner.
As I reported previously, in the Citizenship class at my daughter's school and their mock GE, no one (0) wanted to be Labour - it was all Tory, Lib Dem or Greens I think (not sure re kippers - didn't ask). One class mate on Jeremy Corbyn asked if he was the homeless one.
Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax
Property market crash looms.
Been looming for a while now, it will get blamed on Brexit but in reality is the normal cycle
There has been a further move towards the Tories on the GE Seats spread markets this morning. In the case of IG, they go 367 - 373 (i.e. 370 mid point) on the Blue Team, which is about 10 seats higher than they were offering last night. The other two firms are a couple of seats lower than this.
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Best place is here
Hear hear! PB was miles ahead of the TV on Referendum Night.
Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
Ex Labour peer with 5.3m followers on twitter counters the luvvies
Lord SugarVerified account @Lord_Sugar 2m2 minutes ago More If you admire or trust me as an east end boy done good by honest hard graft .I sincetely beg or advise you not to vote for Corbyn #trustme
British Muslim leaders have refused to say the traditional prayers at the funerals of the London Bridge murderers. The Muslim Council of Britain says that their acts "alienate them from any association with our community for whom the inviolability of every human life is the founding principle." In other words, they are saying that they do not recognise the murderers as martyrs or even as Muslims. They are saying they will go to hell.
Any decent person will praise the MCB for doing the right thing. They are a credit not just to Islam but to Britain.
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
If Jack's ARSE is out this evening, I don't want to steal his thunder, so FWIW, my election forecast:
Con 360 Lab 215 LD 6 Grn 1 UKIP 0 SNP 47 PC 3 NI 18
Con maj: 70
Based on: 45/36/8/2/3/4.2/0.6 plus finger in the air adjustment.
Betting wise, I have: LDs under 29 Cons under 398 Lab above 160 Con victories in Swansea West 2/1, Tooting 5/4, Carshalton and Wallington 9/5 Lab next leader: E. Thornberry 25/1, S. Kinnock 18/1, L. Nandy 14/1 LD next leader: N. Clegg, A. Carmichael (both 16/1)
And if anyone's interested in why I've chosen to vote the way I did two weeks ago by post, here it is:
As I reported previously, in the Citizenship class at my daughter's school and their mock GE, no one (0) wanted to be Labour - it was all Tory, Lib Dem or Greens I think (not sure re kippers - didn't ask). One class mate on Jeremy Corbyn asked if he was the homeless one.
Ex Labour peer with 5.3m followers on twitter counters the luvvies
Lord SugarVerified account @Lord_Sugar 2m2 minutes ago More If you admire or trust me as an east end boy done good by honest hard graft .I sincetely beg or advise you not to vote for Corbyn #trustme
So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
Best place is here
Hear hear! PB was miles ahead of the TV on Referendum Night.
That was mainly due to the Hanretty 50/50 spreadsheet.. I made a decent profit thanks to that. Therefore i am.backing Hanretty to get it right again.
Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
She may have been approached by team Corbyn, but declined. – Wouldn’t be the first time.
"The ship's going down. We have an empty berth. Would you care to fill it?"
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
Comments
If I had my toes held to the fire, I'd say SDLP hold but I genuinely wouldn't be surprised by any result between DUP/SF/SDLP/All.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743?day=1
@iainjwatson: Friends of Diane Abbott (not a euphemism for DA herself) say she was moved without consultation -not at her request
Reward - pm.
I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
For the first time I feel the narrative is changing and todays Evening Standard endorsing Theresa May and traducing labour policies by the IFS must have some traction in London.
The movememt of the leaders, the reports of a confident Theresa May from the journalists travelling with her, the anecdotal evidence of a failing labour campaign that may have peaked too soon, and Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme
The Conservatives are still the party that wants to take people out of tax.
There represent the people that make ,80k a year.
To the tune of thousands.
Have a read of the 2010 Tory manifesto and the 2010 Lib Dem one.
And yes, when the Lib Dem policy proved to be both successful and popular, the Tories were eager to take credit for it and keep it going.
Doesn't make it retrospectively their policy or idea, though. Rewriting history is not a good thing to do.
Con 360
Lab 215
LD 6
Grn 1
UKIP 0
SNP 47
PC 3
NI 18
Con maj: 70
Based on: 45/36/8/2/3/4.2/0.6 plus finger in the air adjustment.
Betting wise, I have:
LDs under 29
Cons under 398
Lab above 160
Con victories in Swansea West 2/1, Tooting 5/4, Carshalton and Wallington 9/5
Lab next leader: E. Thornberry 25/1, S. Kinnock 18/1, L. Nandy 14/1
LD next leader: N. Clegg, A. Carmichael (both 16/1)
And if anyone's interested in why I've chosen to vote the way I did two weeks ago by post, here it is:
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/face-up-or-run-away
(still can't see it, but....)
Shame they couldn't make a late transfer bid for Prof Curtice though!
Any decent person will praise the MCB for doing the right thing. They are a credit not just to Islam but to Britain.
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
It has made May's use or non use of her own cabinet, especially her Chancellor, even odder. She had the potential to contrast a united team with one in disarray and has chosen not to use it preferring a very Presidential approach.
Con 355
Lab 218
LD 8
PC 3
SNP 46
UKIP 0
Other 19
Majority 60
To feed my UNS model, I'm using Hanretty's estimates for England and the latest individual Scottish and Welsh polls for Scotland and Wales.
I'm making a profit on the seat spreads up to 125 but hopefully by then some of my long-punts in individual constituencies will start to come through.
Well, it is an upgrade from Rochdale in any case
Lord SugarVerified account @Lord_Sugar 2m2 minutes ago
More
If you admire or trust me as an east end boy done good by honest hard graft .I sincetely beg or advise you not to vote for Corbyn #trustme
It's a silly thing to do anyway, they've simply drawn even more attention to her.
***** Betting Post *****
Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%.
Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage.
Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!)
As ever DYOR.
As I said, good odds... but not enough to banish my mental image of Stroll devaluing the Wall of Champions with his carbon fibre.
20-25 per cent =33/1
Just saying
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/maps-charts-showing-state-play-eve-general-election/
https://twitter.com/UKLabour/status/872360985897558016
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenkins_Commission_(UK)
It was commissioned 20 years ago.
[caveat - this is Bucks]
You think Clegg will hold Hallam?
https://twitter.com/bbcphilipsim/status/872419312736260096
https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/872428328824827904
I made a decent profit thanks to that.
Therefore i am.backing Hanretty to get it right again.
Yeeuuch!