Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.
Good local election results for the Lib Dems (44% across the constituency) plus a very remain electorate with a high turn out and a right wing brexiter conservative MP.
Also Daisy Cooper is an absolute star, someone to watch out for in the future.
Can't be worse than Anne Main who I despise with a passion , ever since her spectacular expenses troughing. Will decide my vote based on tonights polls , if May win looks nailed on will vote LibDem
I remember that lady. She was truly an expenses disgrace. And she's still there?
Sorry, but that doesn't say much for the voters of St Albans.
Tim Farron is campaigning in St Albans again this morning. The Lib Dems high command must think that St Albans constituency is in play.
Wouldn't he be better off in Surbiton ?
St Albans is even more unrealistic than Leeds East was for the Tories.
from where both the tories and libdems are putting in resources and where their respective leaders are going today, something tells me the polling and data they are seeing is better for the libdems then the public polls. Prehaps coming from the labour figure because tories have not gone defensive against labour at all.
Actually the Bolsover and OxWAB anecdotes imply a far bigger leave-remain tectonic shift than anyone could possibly have imagined.
If tories are at 44% and 7/8% ahead does that imply winning deep into labour LEAVE seats but just holding on to Remain seats even if there is a big swing against them?
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
Lots of orange squares about in Abingdon (kids are at school there), I agree... but then there were in 2010 and 2015 too.
The Lib Dem weakness in OxWAB is not in Abingdon or the Oxford wards but in the 5 Cherwell wards that are part of the constituency , Kidlington and Kirtlington will probably see the Conservatives home unless the Lib Dems can get the Labour voters in Jericho to switch .
Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority. Idiot.
Sorry to be dim but which is the idiotic bit? PS ok sorry got it now.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
This will cause a meltdown at the Spectator. Very good news for France, though. Lucky them.
The Tories will do well tomorrow. Majority of 80 is a conservative estimate. Talk of May's mare will quickly subside. But memories of her poor performance won't fade completely. People will feel somewhat emboldened in their challenges, especially if (god forbid) the terrorist outrages continue, and when Brexit gets sticky. She certainly doesn't seem physically strong at the moment, though that doesn't mean that she can't do a good job. But I doubt very much that she'll see out the parliament - I think she'll come to the point that she decides enough is enough.
Looking at the markets, Boris is favourite but surely he's an easy lay? Who seriously thinks he'll be the next prime minister? The only way I can see it happening is if a lot of non-Tories join the party to vote for him as a joke. So, discounting him and the silent Mr Hammond, I'd put my money on Rudd, with a small covering bet on Javid. It'd be fun having Davidson as PM and she's a reasonable dark horse, but it still seems unlikely.
I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.
Twickenham puzzles me a bit, but then my judgment is probably suspect as I can't stand Cable. Any particular reason why he is such a strong favourite?
Well it's a strong remain area as you might expect, but its had a long held Liberal tradition and the Libs have scored 20,000 votes in every election since 83'. He obviously had a relationship as a decent local MP and I dont think many expected him to lose last time. May clearly has less appeal in these trendy, leafy suburbs as Cameron did and the average age in the constituency is on the young side. Without a good candidate like Dr Tania I doubt it would be close, but I'd guess (with no ground information) that her odds of greater than 2/1 on Betfair perhaps slightly undervalue her chances.
It seemed to me in retrospect that Tania Mathias was the perfect candidate to beat Cable last time, so while I admit my local knowledge is limited and second hand I can't see why she wouldn't do so again.
But then I'm biased. Seeing the expression on that duplicitous old sod's face when he lost was my personal Portillo moment of 2015. Even better than Balls, who I actually felt quite sorry for.
I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
My feeling on the ground in Richmond Park is that it is edging blue. It is exactly the same feeling I had the same time the day before the by election.
Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority. Idiot.
I think someone needs to take some maths lessons. 70 gains would give the Tories a majority of 150.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
I'm still waiting for the EU to collapse as that was apparently the reason why we should leave.
@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
My forecast for tomorrow, not sure if the maths stacks up:
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened. The real fun begins on 9th June. Batten down the hatches and hold plenty of cash!
An increase majority isn't the only prize on offer - 2 more years until the next are up for grabs.
70+ maj until 2022 is far far better for May than what she had without an election.
Oh and no GO is a win too.
Yes, in a perverse way Theresa's decision now looks judicious. Had all this occurred in Brexit's wake, the Tory campaign could have well imploded, leaving Jezza in with a serious shout. Theresa has bought herself some precious time.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
I'm still waiting for the EU to collapse as that was apparently the reason why we should leave.
The EU has pulled together after Brexit which is apparently a reason why it's a club we don't want to be part of.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
I'm still waiting for the EU to collapse as that was apparently the reason why we should leave.
Indeed. However, it will happen because Le Pen actually won the election so all this En Marche stuff is merely a centrist mirage. I know that because I read it right here on PB on evening of the French election.
The Tories will do well tomorrow. Majority of 80 is a conservative estimate. Talk of May's mare will quickly subside. But memories of her poor performance won't fade completely. People will feel somewhat emboldened in their challenges, especially if (god forbid) the terrorist outrages continue, and when Brexit gets sticky. She certainly doesn't seem physically strong at the moment, though that doesn't mean that she can't do a good job. But I doubt very much that she'll see out the parliament - I think she'll come to the point that she decides enough is enough.
Looking at the markets, Boris is favourite but surely he's an easy lay? Who seriously thinks he'll be the next prime minister? The only way I can see it happening is if a lot of non-Tories join the party to vote for him as a joke. So, discounting him and the silent Mr Hammond, I'd put my money on Rudd, with a small covering bet on Javid. It'd be fun having Davidson as PM and she's a reasonable dark horse, but it still seems unlikely.
I think you're broadly right there, except that it won't be Javid. Initial hopes in him have fizzled out. Also, there is likely to be plenty of time for other ministers to make a mark, so it could be someone who's not curentlly on the radar.
The Tories will do well tomorrow. Majority of 80 is a conservative estimate. Talk of May's mare will quickly subside. But memories of her poor performance won't fade completely. People will feel somewhat emboldened in their challenges, especially if (god forbid) the terrorist outrages continue, and when Brexit gets sticky. She certainly doesn't seem physically strong at the moment, though that doesn't mean that she can't do a good job. But I doubt very much that she'll see out the parliament - I think she'll come to the point that she decides enough is enough.
Looking at the markets, Boris is favourite but surely he's an easy lay? Who seriously thinks he'll be the next prime minister? The only way I can see it happening is if a lot of non-Tories join the party to vote for him as a joke. So, discounting him and the silent Mr Hammond, I'd put my money on Rudd, with a small covering bet on Javid. It'd be fun having Davidson as PM and she's a reasonable dark horse, but it still seems unlikely.
@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
Wouldn't that be a violation of electoral law ?
Nope. Farage did the same in Buckingham in 2010.
It helped him finish third in a two horse race.
Walked away from the resultant crash though...
Just looked at the photos; frankly it was remarkable he did walk away.
My forecast for tomorrow, not sure if the maths stacks up:
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened. The real fun begins on 9th June. Batten down the hatches and hold plenty of cash!
I think you will be right tories 46-48%, Labour 30 - 33% , i reckon tories around 390 - 400 seats, labour 170 - 180
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
Panic? Or most useful use of man power?
Probably a function of the LibDems having nowhere else to use their workers, so the Conservatives are just covering it - because they don't have anywhere else to use their workers either!
Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority. Idiot.
I think someone needs to take some maths lessons. 70 gains would give the Tories a majority of 150.
My forecast for tomorrow, not sure if the maths stacks up:
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened. The real fun begins on 9th June. Batten down the hatches and hold plenty of cash!
IF the Tories end up with 380-410 seats Mrs May will not be weakened. She'll have got her landslide and no-one will care how she got it. No-one's awarding marks for style & technique.
Mr. Prodicus, one is unsurprised to hear that another has fallen under the mesmeric spell of the waved wiffle stick.
Mr. Woolie, I heard that. Bit of a schoolboy error from Rigby.
Morley & Outwood: just had some last minute election stuff from the Conservatives. Double-sided A5 thingummyjig, focus on the national picture rather than the local candidates.
Incidentally, yesterday I got something from the Labour chap. Most of it was typical electioneering (over-egging cake) but one line did strike me as a bit dodgy. It was something like "the Tories will abolish the Triple Lock, putting pensions at risk." First part obviously true, the second makes it sound as if pensions themselves will be at risk of disappearing rather than just increasing at a slightly lower rate some years.
My forecast for tomorrow, not sure if the maths stacks up:
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened.
160-180 but Corbyn strengthened would be a curious outcome, given Labour's worst result post-war was 209 in 1983. To do so much worse than Michael Foot ......
The Tories will do well tomorrow. Majority of 80 is a conservative estimate. Talk of May's mare will quickly subside. But memories of her poor performance won't fade completely. People will feel somewhat emboldened in their challenges, especially if (god forbid) the terrorist outrages continue, and when Brexit gets sticky. She certainly doesn't seem physically strong at the moment, though that doesn't mean that she can't do a good job. But I doubt very much that she'll see out the parliament - I think she'll come to the point that she decides enough is enough.
Looking at the markets, Boris is favourite but surely he's an easy lay? Who seriously thinks he'll be the next prime minister? The only way I can see it happening is if a lot of non-Tories join the party to vote for him as a joke. So, discounting him and the silent Mr Hammond, I'd put my money on Rudd, with a small covering bet on Javid. It'd be fun having Davidson as PM and she's a reasonable dark horse, but it still seems unlikely.
I think you're broadly right there, except that it won't be Javid. Initial hopes in him have fizzled out. Also, there is likely to be plenty of time for other ministers to make a mark, so it could be someone who's not curentlly on the radar.
It's not beyond the imagination that the next few years go badly. We're overdue a recession and Brexit negotiations might not deliver. They could be seriously behind in the polls, espcially if they face a refreshed Labour.
So who would the Tory's turn for in that situation. Who could give them a feel good boost. Who would be their roll of the dice.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
This is precisely where the Lib Dems need to go, straight to the radical centre rather than the Labour-lite shite that Farron is giving.
Agreed. I think (apart from the folly of having Farron as leader) that the Lib Dems made a great error in apparently spending their entire campaign attacking the Tories. By giving Corbyn a completely free pass they have tacitly endorsed Labour, and are simply not competing for the anyone-but-May vote.
Their most fruitful marginals are Con/LD so attacking the Tories makes sense and gets the Lab tactical vote. They are competing for the anyone-but-May vote.
I've herd Twickers defo going yellow, Kingston is very difficult to discern and C&W is going blue. Also heard Richmond is reverting blue.
That would sound about right. Olney is crap and can't see her clinging on despite Zac also being crap. Brake is a gonner for sure and expect Cable to win. Kingston was a big surprise to me in 15' so would be far from shocking it it went down to the wire this time.
Twickenham puzzles me a bit, but then my judgment is probably suspect as I can't stand Cable. Any particular reason why he is such a strong favourite?
On this i agree with Mr senior..Cable will win prob by 4000
Hopefully the result will be bad enough for them that the Liberals will get rid of the SDP cancer and go back to being a genuine liberal, local alternative.
Just a thought - post election splits.
If Labour splits would the SDP go "back home" to Labour?
Not if Corbyn remains, but yes with centrist labour
If Corbyn goes then there is no need for Labour to split surely? I was thinking that if he insists on staying would the moderate MPs split off?
Historically, immediate post-election defeats seem to be a good time for political parties to undergo massive internal fights and wobbles
Yes, I think that if Corbyn seeks to hang on then that's the scenario which really could give rise to an existential crisis in Labour, because I'm no longer sure that a challenger from outside of the hard left would have a good chance of replacing him, even if Labour suffers a big defeat on Thursday.
If he stands down for September it depends who replaces him if it is to be someone from the left. If it were Clive Lewis, then I think the PLP would give Lewis a bit more time to see whether he started to pull the party back away from the Momentum crew. Lewis has shown some independence from the Corbynites, and the fact that Kinnock was once thought of as a left wing firebrand might just prove to be prescient. On the other hand, if Corbyn were succeeded by someone of the ilk of Long-Bailey or if he just decides to go on and on then I think a split would follow - the bulk of the PLP simply giving up on him.
The tragedy for Labour is that I think that there is the potential for the Tories reputation by 2022 to be as low as in 1997. Frankly it's not much better than that now. Yet there is every chance of Labour blowing the next election as well as this one, if the faction currently dominating the party consolidates its position, which is what might make some sort of political realignment on the left so appealing.
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
Lots of orange squares about in Abingdon (kids are at school there), I agree... but then there were in 2010 and 2015 too.
The Lib Dem weakness in OxWAB is not in Abingdon or the Oxford wards but in the 5 Cherwell wards that are part of the constituency , Kidlington and Kirtlington will probably see the Conservatives home unless the Lib Dems can get the Labour voters in Jericho to switch .
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
Of course we were assured many times on here that he would be a lame duck president and there would be no way on earth that a new party would command a majority in the Elysee. Another prediction victory for the PB Le Pennite clever-clogs.
I'm still waiting for the EU to collapse as that was apparently the reason why we should leave.
The EU has pulled together after Brexit which is apparently a reason why it's a club we don't want to be part of.
surely its a club they dont want us to be part of ?
for all your woolly sentiment the lack of movement on the EU side to re-engage with UK and find an accommodation is the most noticeable event of the last year
had it been France they would be falling over themselves to keep her on board
all animals are equal but some are more equal than others
The Tories will do well tomorrow. Majority of 80 is a conservative estimate. Talk of May's mare will quickly subside. But memories of her poor performance won't fade completely. People will feel somewhat emboldened in their challenges, especially if (god forbid) the terrorist outrages continue, and when Brexit gets sticky. She certainly doesn't seem physically strong at the moment, though that doesn't mean that she can't do a good job. But I doubt very much that she'll see out the parliament - I think she'll come to the point that she decides enough is enough.
Looking at the markets, Boris is favourite but surely he's an easy lay? Who seriously thinks he'll be the next prime minister? The only way I can see it happening is if a lot of non-Tories join the party to vote for him as a joke. So, discounting him and the silent Mr Hammond, I'd put my money on Rudd, with a small covering bet on Javid. It'd be fun having Davidson as PM and she's a reasonable dark horse, but it still seems unlikely.
I think you're broadly right there, except that it won't be Javid. Initial hopes in him have fizzled out. Also, there is likely to be plenty of time for other ministers to make a mark, so it could be someone who's not curentlly on the radar.
It's not beyond the imagination that the next few years go badly. We're overdue a recession and Brexit negotiations might not deliver. They could be seriously behind in the polls, espcially if they face a refreshed Labour.
So who would the Tory's turn for in that situation. Who could give them a feel good boost. Who would be their roll of the dice.
Boris.
I like Nick Boles or Nick Herbert. Both strong. Amber Rudd of course is nearby.
50 gains is well over 100 majority. My word what poor reporting.
Shocking. Truth is if the majority is above 50 I think May will be fine. She'll have a reshuffle and the press will focus on the Labour infighting. There will be MPs queuing up to oust Corbyn if Labour go backwards in seats, which I'm expecting they will.
Alistair is absolutely right that the 3.8 is value. But, unlike him, I think the over/under is about right.
Why?
I would like PBers to cast their minds back to April/May 2016. At that time the LDs were polling 5 to 6% in Scottish opinion polls. On this site, the question was repeatedly, and seriously, asked: would the LDs retain a single Scottish seat?
Many predicted they would not.
It seemed like I was the only optimist on the LibDem chances. I predicted they would retain both Orkney and Shetland and would likely get one more list seat.
I was unduly pessimistic, as the Scots embraced tactical voting with extraordinary fervour. In six seats, the LibDems recorded very significant swings to them, despite seeing their list vote (which is probably what opinion polls are best at capturing) decline to just 5%.
And when I say significant swings, these were not small moves:
Orkney +31.6% Shetland +19.9% Fife NE +15.4% Edinburgh Western +14.1% Argyll & Bute +13.6% CS&R +8.8%
Almost everywhere else in Scotland, the LibDem vote declined (like in Edinburgh Central where it dropped 15.6%). In other words, the LibDems racked up very impressive gains in the efficiency of their vote, despite swings away from them. (I would point the SNP's constituency vote actually rose in 2016.)
Now, would I predict similar levels of efficiency in the LibDem vote in England & Wales. Obviously not. But I think it's important to remember two things:
1. The Conservative and Labour swings are largely based on them hoovering up UKIP voters. If there's only a small number of UKIP voters in a seat, there aren't that many votes for them to grab at the expense of the LDs. 2. The willingness of people to tactically, according to the polls, has increased markedly since 2015.
For this reason, I think the LDs will likely get between 6 and 14 seats, with the most likely outcome being 10/11. I think they will gain two Scottish seats, possibly three. I think they will likely end up with two London seats. After that, it's a bit of a crap shoot. My one random betting tip would be £5 on the LDs in Argyll & Bute, where you can get 6/1 on them.
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
Lots of orange squares about in Abingdon (kids are at school there), I agree... but then there were in 2010 and 2015 too.
The Lib Dem weakness in OxWAB is not in Abingdon or the Oxford wards but in the 5 Cherwell wards that are part of the constituency , Kidlington and Kirtlington will probably see the Conservatives home unless the Lib Dems can get the Labour voters in Jericho to switch .
Isn't Jericho going to be cheering on Jeremy Corbyn?
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
Lots of orange squares about in Abingdon (kids are at school there), I agree... but then there were in 2010 and 2015 too.
The Lib Dem weakness in OxWAB is not in Abingdon or the Oxford wards but in the 5 Cherwell wards that are part of the constituency , Kidlington and Kirtlington will probably see the Conservatives home unless the Lib Dems can get the Labour voters in Jericho to switch .
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
This is precisely where the Lib Dems need to go, straight to the radical centre rather than the Labour-lite shite that Farron is giving.
Good luck with that. You do realise that the Democrats bit of the title is from Social Democrats?
You'd be better off starting a new party like Macron did rather than trying to hijack an existing centre-left party.
The orange bookers tried that in the 2010 coalition. I, and many others, resigned from the party. The number of seats dropped from 57 to 8. Not a successful strategy.
@jimwaterson: Hearing Labour has a plan to fly aircraft across the country tomorrow trailing big pro-Labour adverts over key marginals. Deadly serious.
Wouldn't that be a violation of electoral law ?
Nope. Farage did the same in Buckingham in 2010.
It helped him finish third in a two horse race.
Walked away from the resultant crash though...
Just looked at the photos; frankly it was remarkable he did walk away.
The Tories will do well tomorrow. Majority of 80 is a conservative estimate. Talk of May's mare will quickly subside. But memories of her poor performance won't fade completely. People will feel somewhat emboldened in their challenges, especially if (god forbid) the terrorist outrages continue, and when Brexit gets sticky. She certainly doesn't seem physically strong at the moment, though that doesn't mean that she can't do a good job. But I doubt very much that she'll see out the parliament - I think she'll come to the point that she decides enough is enough.
Looking at the markets, Boris is favourite but surely he's an easy lay? Who seriously thinks he'll be the next prime minister? The only way I can see it happening is if a lot of non-Tories join the party to vote for him as a joke. So, discounting him and the silent Mr Hammond, I'd put my money on Rudd, with a small covering bet on Javid. It'd be fun having Davidson as PM and she's a reasonable dark horse, but it still seems unlikely.
I think you're broadly right there, except that it won't be Javid. Initial hopes in him have fizzled out. Also, there is likely to be plenty of time for other ministers to make a mark, so it could be someone who's not curentlly on the radar.
It's not beyond the imagination that the next few years go badly. We're overdue a recession and Brexit negotiations might not deliver. They could be seriously behind in the polls, espcially if they face a refreshed Labour.
So who would the Tory's turn for in that situation. Who could give them a feel good boost. Who would be their roll of the dice.
Boris.
I like Nick Boles or Nick Herbert. Both strong. Amber Rudd of course is nearby.
If May is unpopular and goes, I don't think Rudd offers sufficient change. More of the same. Boris will run.
NICOLA Sturgeon’s character has become an issue in the closing hours of the election after she was accused of “dirty, gutter politics” for revealing the contents of a private conversation.
Scottish Labour Kezia Dugdale said the First Minister had “diminished her office” by making an explosive - and disputed - claim about what the pair discussed after the EU referendum.
Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson also labelled Ms Sturgeon a “clype”, or telltale, and said people would “make up their own minds about the First Minister’s character”.
She accused Ms Sturgeon of breaking a confidence to “score a cheap political point”.
There is a chance May will win a landslide - with a large number of very marginal Tory seats. If that happens I'd be glad as the extremely precarious nature of her large majority will serve to keep the blues on their toes.
You've heard what the politicians have to say. You've heard the spin about which seats are important. If you're really keen, you may even have read a manifesto or four.
Is there another way of finding out what - and where - really matters to the party leaders?
We set out to analyse another indicator - where they've been going. The campaigning time available to Scotland's main party leaders is finite, especially in a snap election.
Even battlebuses, helicopters (and on at least one occasion a go-kart) can't cover the whole country. Nicola, Ruth, Kezia and Willie are going where they think they can make the biggest difference.
So we thought we'd analyse those campaigning visits to see if a pattern emerged.
The Tories will do well tomorrow. Majority of 80 is a conservative estimate. Talk of May's mare will quickly subside. But memories of her poor performance won't fade completely. People will feel somewhat emboldened in their challenges, especially if (god forbid) the terrorist outrages continue, and when Brexit gets sticky. She certainly doesn't seem physically strong at the moment, though that doesn't mean that she can't do a good job. But I doubt very much that she'll see out the parliament - I think she'll come to the point that she decides enough is enough.
Looking at the markets, Boris is favourite but surely he's an easy lay? Who seriously thinks he'll be the next prime minister? The only way I can see it happening is if a lot of non-Tories join the party to vote for him as a joke. So, discounting him and the silent Mr Hammond, I'd put my money on Rudd, with a small covering bet on Javid. It'd be fun having Davidson as PM and she's a reasonable dark horse, but it still seems unlikely.
I think you're broadly right there, except that it won't be Javid. Initial hopes in him have fizzled out. Also, there is likely to be plenty of time for other ministers to make a mark, so it could be someone who's not curentlly on the radar.
It's not beyond the imagination that the next few years go badly. We're overdue a recession and Brexit negotiations might not deliver. They could be seriously behind in the polls, espcially if they face a refreshed Labour.
So who would the Tory's turn for in that situation. Who could give them a feel good boost. Who would be their roll of the dice.
Boris.
I like Nick Boles or Nick Herbert. Both strong. Amber Rudd of course is nearby.
If May is unpopular and goes, I don't think Rudd offers sufficient change. More of the same. Boris will run.
Good morning fellow Tories and other PBers. A view from North Britain. There seems to be a universally held view both on here and among the chattering classes at Westminster, especially among the media that Theresa May has had a terrible campaign and Jeremy Corbyn has had a superb campaign.
Let's face it, if she gets anything like a 100 majority and probably more tomorrow evening and into Friday, she and her backroom team will have in fact played a blinder and it will have shown that as with 2015, the chatterati is in fact completely out of touch with real people on the ground.
Several of us yesterday posted on here that lots of ordinary people, not traditional Tory voters, have expressed admiration and support for Theresa May, in large part because she is not seen as part of the chattering class and Westminster chummy types.
Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.
Right then, I am prepared for major egg on face but here are my predictions. Based on a general reading of the polling, some campaigning insights and just gut reaction.
Labour will gain a boost of positions and votes in the South of England and the big cities but with few seats benefits. This does though position them for future elections.
The Conservatives will make strides in Scotland, Wales, Midlands and North, making them truly a one nation party.
We will see a significant return of two party politics in England/Wales with a big strategic challenge for the Lib Dems, UKIP and Greens.
Scotland will see the Unionist/Nationalist divide institutionalised further.
I will be out at 05:00 hrs for the Dawn Raid in my Labour West Midlands Marginal which we Conservatives are targetting.
50 gains is well over 100 majority. My word what poor reporting.
Shocking. Truth is if the majority is above 50 I think May will be fine. She'll have a reshuffle and the press will focus on the Labour infighting. There will be MPs queuing up to oust Corbyn if Labour go backwards in seats, which I'm expecting they will.
She will need to reshuffle more than ministers imo.
Beth Rigby on Sky once again showing her lack of talent Tory sources expecting up to 50 to 70 gains but at the start of the campaign there was talk of landslides and 100 plus majority. Idiot.
She is just so hopeless. Boulton also showing his labour leanings all the time. Faisal Islam as Juncker's personal assistant and Ed Conwy as the most miserable finance commentator you could have.
However, Sophy Ridge is excellent
Yes the BBC is often criticised for bias but in Neil and DD have the most experienced, intelligent and neutral journalists on view, LK has also done well and elsewhere they've mostly have been fairly commendable during this election with only Mishal Hussein letting the side down during that scrappy 7 way debate. Sky by contrast seem to have turned into the new Channel 4. Tory minded subscribers might be wondering what they're paying for
My forecast for tomorrow, not sure if the maths stacks up:
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened. The real fun begins on 9th June. Batten down the hatches and hold plenty of cash!
I think you will be right tories 46-48%, Labour 30 - 33% , i reckon tories around 390 - 400 seats, labour 170 - 180
Good morning fellow Tories and other PBers. A view from North Britain. There seems to be a universally held view both on here and among the chattering classes at Westminster, especially among the media that Theresa May has had a terrible campaign and Jeremy Corbyn has had a superb campaign.
Let's face it, if she gets anything like a 100 majority and probably more tomorrow evening and into Friday, she and her backroom team will have in fact played a blinder and it will have shown that as with 2015, the chatterati is in fact completely out of touch with real people on the ground.
Several of us yesterday posted on here that lots of ordinary people, not traditional Tory voters, have expressed admiration and support for Theresa May, in large part because she is not seen as part of the chattering class and Westminster chummy types.
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
Have you canvassed, or just counted 'winning here' boards?
I'm forecasting a major PB Tory reverse ferret on Osborne today.
George Osborne bad to George Osborne good.
Well...it does look like he was a tory deep cover sleeper agent all along. But much of the PBtoriat never lost faith in him in the first place (ask TSE).
Four weeks ago I did a 12:1 treble at Sky: CON >400, LAB <151, LD >10, placed 4 weeks ago. Since then I’ve been thinking 'aargh'. Today, call me bonkers but, oh I dunno…
Pity about my LD number, though. For once, I hope OGH is right in his estimate of their chances
Since others are doing so, I'll name the seats I'm expecting the Lib Dems to take. I expect the Lib Dems to take (in decreasing order of probability) Orkney & Shetland, Edinburgh West, Twickenham, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion. Anything after that is a bonus. Everything after Edinburgh West in my mind is by no means assured.
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
Lots of orange squares about in Abingdon (kids are at school there), I agree... but then there were in 2010 and 2015 too.
The Lib Dem weakness in OxWAB is not in Abingdon or the Oxford wards but in the 5 Cherwell wards that are part of the constituency , Kidlington and Kirtlington will probably see the Conservatives home unless the Lib Dems can get the Labour voters in Jericho to switch .
Seen almost nothing of McDonnell. Be a 'shame' if he lost Hayes and Harlington given what a delightful human he is.
You should be hearing a lot more of him soon.
The attempt to demonise Corbyn failed and the next in line, Abbot, has gone sick. McDonnell is the most obvious candidate to be the Conservative Party's Aunt Sally now.
Who says it's failed?
Remember in Corbo land, moral victories >>> elections.
While I hope you're right, I think he'll be back in parliament on June 9th. I wouldn't be surprised if he was the only LibDem gain from the Conservatives.
Why?
1. Heathrow, which is much more toxic in Twickenham than Richmond. 2. It's Remainia Central. 3. It only need a small amount of tactical voting from Labour-ites, and Vince is (let's be honest) a socialist not a liberal.
The Tories will do well tomorrow. Majority of 80 is a conservative estimate. Talk of May's mare will quickly subside. But memories of her poor performance won't fade completely. People will feel somewhat emboldened in their challenges, especially if (god forbid) the terrorist outrages continue, and when Brexit gets sticky. She certainly doesn't seem physically strong at the moment, though that doesn't mean that she can't do a good job. But I doubt very much that she'll see out the parliament - I think she'll come to the point that she decides enough is enough.
Looking at the markets, Boris is favourite but surely he's an easy lay? Who seriously thinks he'll be the next prime minister? The only way I can see it happening is if a lot of non-Tories join the party to vote for him as a joke. So, discounting him and the silent Mr Hammond, I'd put my money on Rudd, with a small covering bet on Javid. It'd be fun having Davidson as PM and she's a reasonable dark horse, but it still seems unlikely.
I think you're broadly right there, except that it won't be Javid. Initial hopes in him have fizzled out. Also, there is likely to be plenty of time for other ministers to make a mark, so it could be someone who's not curentlly on the radar.
Of the outsiders, there's Greening and Patel. I'd much prefer the former since I'm not a Tory. Any reasons why either of them would garner little support? Then possibly also Jesse Norman and Liz Truss. I always forget who Liz is but she seems to be quite a good performer.
Thornbury has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.
She and Gardiner have come over best when I've seen them. Nia Griffith's cameo on Newsnight was the best but she's been hidden since it seems. Labour have been wise to bury Burgon and McDonnell as best they can.
If so, it will be an amazing achievement for a new party and a politician with zero electoral experience until he ran for President.
This is precisely where the Lib Dems need to go, straight to the radical centre rather than the Labour-lite shite that Farron is giving.
Good luck with that. You do realise that the Democrats bit of the title is from Social Democrats?
You'd be better off starting a new party like Macron did rather than trying to hijack an existing centre-left party.
The orange bookers tried that in the 2010 coalition. I, and many others, resigned from the party. The number of seats dropped from 57 to 8. Not a successful strategy.
Abandoning liberal economics will prove an even worse strategy.
Either you're liberal or you aren't. You can't be half liberal.
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
Have you canvassed, or just counted 'winning here' boards?
Since others are doing so, I'll name the seats I'm expecting the Lib Dems to take. I expect the Lib Dems to take (in decreasing order of probability) Orkney & Shetland, Edinburgh West, Twickenham, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Sheffield Hallam, Ceredigion. Anything after that is a bonus. Everything after Edinburgh West in my mind is by no means assured.
I think I've managed to convince everyone on this site that Edinburgh West is a nailed on LibDem gain, and I hope I won't end up with egg on my face on Friday!
Why do you think the LibDems won't do better in Scotland? They "won" North East Fife in the locals last month, and made gains in a few other seats where they also did well in the Holyrood elections: Argyll & Bute, and CS&ER for example. The SNP is also well down on where they were in 2016.
I'm in Edinburgh North and Leith and we are receiving much larger amounts of Tory election literature than I received in 2015 in Newton Abbot (which in 2010 went Conservative with a majority of just 523).
You've heard what the politicians have to say. You've heard the spin about which seats are important. If you're really keen, you may even have read a manifesto or four.
Is there another way of finding out what - and where - really matters to the party leaders?
We set out to analyse another indicator - where they've been going. The campaigning time available to Scotland's main party leaders is finite, especially in a snap election.
Even battlebuses, helicopters (and on at least one occasion a go-kart) can't cover the whole country. Nicola, Ruth, Kezia and Willie are going where they think they can make the biggest difference.
So we thought we'd analyse those campaigning visits to see if a pattern emerged.
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
Lots of orange squares about in Abingdon (kids are at school there), I agree... but then there were in 2010 and 2015 too.
The Lib Dem weakness in OxWAB is not in Abingdon or the Oxford wards but in the 5 Cherwell wards that are part of the constituency , Kidlington and Kirtlington will probably see the Conservatives home unless the Lib Dems can get the Labour voters in Jericho to switch .
Any thoughts on Cambridge Mark ?
Close but Labour hold
Mark
What is your view on Lib Dems apparent move away from being equi-distant from Labour and Conservative and instead under Farron becoming Labour Lite under a 'progressive' banner?
My forecast for tomorrow, not sure if the maths stacks up:
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened. The real fun begins on 9th June. Batten down the hatches and hold plenty of cash!
IF the Tories end up with 380-410 seats Mrs May will not be weakened. She'll have got her landslide and no-one will care how she got it. No-one's awarding marks for style & technique.
Weakened in the eyes of the public. Her personal ratings have not fared well over these last few weeks. We'll see what all that means once the reality of the Brexit negotiations kick in. Unlike Labour, the Tories know how to get rid of leaders.
ThornburyThornberry has had a good campaign. Has earned a shout at the top job IMO.
Yes, she has been the best media performer of all the Labour front-bench, she's feisty and hits out quite effectively, she's not tainted with being identified with the sane wing of the party, whilst at the same time she's not obviously bonkers. So I wouldn't be at all surprised is she's the next Labour leader.
Have had an email just now from the local Tory party (I live in Wantage constituency) asking for help with GOTV tomorrow in OxWAB.
I expect OxWAB will be a vastly reduced Tory majority.
Easy Tory hold in OxWAB in my opinion.
Would be surprised if it's an easy hold. From where I've been in Oxford and Abingdon, it looks bloody close. Whoever wins, I expect the majority to be three figures.
Have you canvassed, or just counted 'winning here' boards?
Corbyn's rally at Runcorn with labour majority of 20,285
Last night they managed to have a rally less than half a mile away from Birmingham city centre and couldn't be bothered to have people near the stations to encourage commuters to come and listen.
Comments
Genuine question !
Sorry, but that doesn't say much for the voters of St Albans.
The Tories will do well tomorrow. Majority of 80 is a conservative estimate. Talk of May's mare will quickly subside. But memories of her poor performance won't fade completely. People will feel somewhat emboldened in their challenges, especially if (god forbid) the terrorist outrages continue, and when Brexit gets sticky. She certainly doesn't seem physically strong at the moment, though that doesn't mean that she can't do a good job. But I doubt very much that she'll see out the parliament - I think she'll come to the point that she decides enough is enough.
Looking at the markets, Boris is favourite but surely he's an easy lay? Who seriously thinks he'll be the next prime minister? The only way I can see it happening is if a lot of non-Tories join the party to vote for him as a joke. So, discounting him and the silent Mr Hammond, I'd put my money on Rudd, with a small covering bet on Javid. It'd be fun having Davidson as PM and she's a reasonable dark horse, but it still seems unlikely.
50 gains is well over 100 majority. My word what poor reporting.
Labour 160-180 seats; the Tories 380-410 seats. Corbyn strengthened; May weakened. The real fun begins on 9th June. Batten down the hatches and hold plenty of cash!
I think you just won that bet with your mate.
http://www.newsf1.it/newsf1-speciale-intervista-alling-scalabroni13193/
Mr. Woolie, I heard that. Bit of a schoolboy error from Rigby.
Morley & Outwood: just had some last minute election stuff from the Conservatives. Double-sided A5 thingummyjig, focus on the national picture rather than the local candidates.
Incidentally, yesterday I got something from the Labour chap. Most of it was typical electioneering (over-egging cake) but one line did strike me as a bit dodgy. It was something like "the Tories will abolish the Triple Lock, putting pensions at risk." First part obviously true, the second makes it sound as if pensions themselves will be at risk of disappearing rather than just increasing at a slightly lower rate some years.
So who would the Tory's turn for in that situation. Who could give them a feel good boost. Who would be their roll of the dice.
Boris.
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/872401776661737472
Dont worry about NE Derbyshire Tory Gain!!
Grassmoor Clay X only strong LAB areas left.
If Engel had pushed the anti fracking party line could have been a Lab Hold
Dronfield Eckington big swings to Tories as they are pretending to be Anti Frackers Killamarsh not so red anymore I would have thought.
@JournoStephen: Ferrero Rochering: Complaining about your alleged conversation with a French diplomat being leaked only to do the same to an opponent.
If he stands down for September it depends who replaces him if it is to be someone from the left. If it were Clive Lewis, then I think the PLP would give Lewis a bit more time to see whether he started to pull the party back away from the Momentum crew. Lewis has shown some independence from the Corbynites, and the fact that Kinnock was once thought of as a left wing firebrand might just prove to be prescient. On the other hand, if Corbyn were succeeded by someone of the ilk of Long-Bailey or if he just decides to go on and on then I think a split would follow - the bulk of the PLP simply giving up on him.
The tragedy for Labour is that I think that there is the potential for the Tories reputation by 2022 to be as low as in 1997. Frankly it's not much better than that now. Yet there is every chance of Labour blowing the next election as well as this one, if the faction currently dominating the party consolidates its position, which is what might make some sort of political realignment on the left so appealing.
for all your woolly sentiment the lack of movement on the EU side to re-engage with UK and find an accommodation is the most noticeable event of the last year
had it been France they would be falling over themselves to keep her on board
all animals are equal but some are more equal than others
https://twitter.com/george_osborne/status/872401042348158977
Why?
I would like PBers to cast their minds back to April/May 2016. At that time the LDs were polling 5 to 6% in Scottish opinion polls. On this site, the question was repeatedly, and seriously, asked: would the LDs retain a single Scottish seat?
Many predicted they would not.
It seemed like I was the only optimist on the LibDem chances. I predicted they would retain both Orkney and Shetland and would likely get one more list seat.
I was unduly pessimistic, as the Scots embraced tactical voting with extraordinary fervour. In six seats, the LibDems recorded very significant swings to them, despite seeing their list vote (which is probably what opinion polls are best at capturing) decline to just 5%.
And when I say significant swings, these were not small moves:
Orkney +31.6%
Shetland +19.9%
Fife NE +15.4%
Edinburgh Western +14.1%
Argyll & Bute +13.6%
CS&R +8.8%
Almost everywhere else in Scotland, the LibDem vote declined (like in Edinburgh Central where it dropped 15.6%). In other words, the LibDems racked up very impressive gains in the efficiency of their vote, despite swings away from them. (I would point the SNP's constituency vote actually rose in 2016.)
Now, would I predict similar levels of efficiency in the LibDem vote in England & Wales. Obviously not. But I think it's important to remember two things:
1. The Conservative and Labour swings are largely based on them hoovering up UKIP voters. If there's only a small number of UKIP voters in a seat, there aren't that many votes for them to grab at the expense of the LDs.
2. The willingness of people to tactically, according to the polls, has increased markedly since 2015.
For this reason, I think the LDs will likely get between 6 and 14 seats, with the most likely outcome being 10/11. I think they will gain two Scottish seats, possibly three. I think they will likely end up with two London seats. After that, it's a bit of a crap shoot. My one random betting tip would be £5 on the LDs in Argyll & Bute, where you can get 6/1 on them.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/crash-pilot-who-threatened-ukip-leader-nigel-farage-found-dead-8989517.html
Ive moved on, time for you to do the same :-)
George Osborne bad to George Osborne good.
Scottish Labour Kezia Dugdale said the First Minister had “diminished her office” by making an explosive - and disputed - claim about what the pair discussed after the EU referendum.
Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson also labelled Ms Sturgeon a “clype”, or telltale, and said people would “make up their own minds about the First Minister’s character”.
She accused Ms Sturgeon of breaking a confidence to “score a cheap political point”.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15333112.Sturgeon__39_s_character_under_fire_after_privacy_breach_in_TV_debate
You've heard what the politicians have to say. You've heard the spin about which seats are important. If you're really keen, you may even have read a manifesto or four.
Is there another way of finding out what - and where - really matters to the party leaders?
We set out to analyse another indicator - where they've been going.
The campaigning time available to Scotland's main party leaders is finite, especially in a snap election.
Even battlebuses, helicopters (and on at least one occasion a go-kart) can't cover the whole country. Nicola, Ruth, Kezia and Willie are going where they think they can make the biggest difference.
So we thought we'd analyse those campaigning visits to see if a pattern emerged.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-40162504
There seems to be a universally held view both on here and among the chattering classes at Westminster, especially among the media that Theresa May has had a terrible campaign and Jeremy Corbyn has had a superb campaign.
Let's face it, if she gets anything like a 100 majority and probably more tomorrow evening and into Friday, she and her backroom team will have in fact played a blinder and it will have shown that as with 2015, the chatterati is in fact completely out of touch with real people on the ground.
Several of us yesterday posted on here that lots of ordinary people, not traditional Tory voters, have expressed admiration and support for Theresa May, in large part because she is not seen as part of the chattering class and Westminster chummy types.
Right then, I am prepared for major egg on face but here are my predictions. Based on a general reading of the polling, some campaigning insights and just gut reaction.
Conservatives - 44% - 381 seats
Labour - 35% - 198 seats
Lib Dems - 9% - 10 seats
UKIP - 4% - 0 seats
Greens - 3% - 1 seat
Others 5 % - 18 seats (NI) // 42 seats (SNP)
Majority of 112 for the Conservatives
Turnout - 69.2%
Labour will gain a boost of positions and votes in the South of England and the big cities but with few seats benefits. This does though position them for future elections.
The Conservatives will make strides in Scotland, Wales, Midlands and North, making them truly a one nation party.
We will see a significant return of two party politics in England/Wales with a big strategic challenge for the Lib Dems, UKIP and Greens.
Scotland will see the Unionist/Nationalist divide institutionalised further.
I will be out at 05:00 hrs for the Dawn Raid in my Labour West Midlands Marginal which we Conservatives are targetting.
https://twitter.com/GregHands/status/872403004514861056
Pity about my LD number, though. For once, I hope OGH is right in his estimate of their chances
https://twitter.com/Hayley_Barlow/status/872393181538770944
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/872386495151308800
Why?
1. Heathrow, which is much more toxic in Twickenham than Richmond.
2. It's Remainia Central.
3. It only need a small amount of tactical voting from Labour-ites, and Vince is (let's be honest) a socialist not a liberal.
Either you're liberal or you aren't. You can't be half liberal.
Why do you think the LibDems won't do better in Scotland? They "won" North East Fife in the locals last month, and made gains in a few other seats where they also did well in the Holyrood elections: Argyll & Bute, and CS&ER for example. The SNP is also well down on where they were in 2016.
He was in Aberconwy this morning.
Mark
What is your view on Lib Dems apparent move away from being equi-distant from Labour and Conservative and instead under Farron becoming Labour Lite under a 'progressive' banner?