At least they are standing by their decision to be monstrously lonely in their success - or monstrously lonely as they get laughed out of the industry.....
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
As someone who likes Corbyn, it has definitely slowed down since the campaign shifted from 'look at our manifesto' towards 'look at the gaps where 20,000 police used to be'. But I'd (want to) interpret that as a successful defense against a period of Tory offensive that could have been a rout.
The way Corbyn's been bringing the manifesto round on the rallies, I think he and McDonnell are thinking most about how to keep it as the basis for Labour's future development more than anything else. Trying to urge their supporters to read it rather than the New Labour 'just smile and deliver leaflets' model.
I think that's right.
There is definitely a way forward if both sides of Labour want it. Corbyn has surprised me and many others with his campaigning style - and he has clearly demonstrated that a positive, redistributive message can be successful (even if the Labour manifesto itself is not that redistributive). He has also taught all of us not to worry about the right wing press - something that has really held Labour back in the past. However, what is also clear is that for the Labour message to really get through, it has to be delivered by someone who is seen as strong on security and patriotism. And this is where Corbyn falls down, as do McDonnell, Abbott and others: their baggage, accumulated over many years, is undoubtedly off-putting to voters who value patriotism and prioritise security. So, a Labour leader who is strong on defence and comfortable with the Union Jack would have huge freedom to pitch the left-wing policies that so matter to Labour members. I cannot believe that this does not form the basis of a way forward for the party.
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
Link? Or just feeble trolling?
Several Tory commenters here have "explained" that jihadists are in fact "extreme" Muslims and that the core problem is the character or present character of Islam. I am willing to concede that not all Tories think that way, but many certainly do.
I wonder why none of the posters who used to breathlessly post Breibart's readership figures and ad placements haven't done so over the last few months?
Just had a lovely young man ring my bell in Twickenham. Would I be voting for Theresa May? Yes I'll be voting Conservative. Would I like a reminder tomorrow? No thanks not necessary.
Will you be though ?
I will but I'm regretting not accepting the reminder offer and I might have to reconsider my outfit for tomorrow!
It might be me as someone who dislikes Corbyn but does anyone else feel the Labour campaign is unraveling at breakneck speed at just the wrong time? It appears since that Dermot interview the stuffing has been knocked out of their campaign, while the Tories have at last appeared more 'strong and stable'. One of the many polls may well but correct but I can forsee not just your traditional 'incumbent swingback' but something greater happening at the moment which may skew the expected result.
As someone who likes Corbyn, it has definitely slowed down since the campaign shifted from 'look at our manifesto' towards 'look at the gaps where 20,000 police used to be'. But I'd (want to) interpret that as a successful defense against a period of Tory offensive that could have been a rout.
The way Corbyn's been bringing the manifesto round on the rallies, I think he and McDonnell are thinking most about how to keep it as the basis for Labour's future development more than anything else. Trying to urge their supporters to read it rather than the New Labour 'just smile and deliver leaflets' model.
I wonder why none of the posters who used to breathlessly post Breibart's readership figures and ad placements haven't done so over the last few months?
Lord Sugar isn't giving those warnings for his own health. He is rich enough to escape the Jeremy Corbyn wasteland that would be created if Labour were to get in. That is a genuine plea from an old Labour made good to stop his madness.
Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%. Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage. Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!) As ever DYOR.
Turnout will probably be down in Scotland though
Even with the SNP being forced to really defend a dozen or more seats? .... You surprise me.
If there is to be upset,a Labour win in Plymouth Sutton and Devonport has been backed to 13-8 with WH but remains at 3-1 in 2 places.Unpopular Tory MP and good local Labour candidate and Lord Owen's endorsement helps.This is where the postal votes have gone missing.Coincidence?
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
Link? Or just feeble trolling?
Several Tory commenters here have "explained" that jihadists are in fact "extreme" Muslims and that the core problem is the character or present character of Islam. I am willing to concede that not all Tories think that way, but many certainly do.
Can you give an example or two? Also, who authoritatively defines "the character or present character of Islam", and what is their take on jihadists?
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
Link? Or just feeble trolling?
Several Tory commenters here have "explained" that jihadists are in fact "extreme" Muslims and that the core problem is the character or present character of Islam. I am willing to concede that not all Tories think that way, but many certainly do.
You are not really up to date with current debates about the extent to which ISIS and the like represent a "real" strand of Islam are you?
If there is to be upset,a Labour win in Plymouth Sutton and Devonport has been backed to 13-8 with WH but remains at 3-1 in 2 places.Unpopular Tory MP and good local Labour candidate and Lord Owen's endorsement helps.This is where the postal votes have gone missing.Coincidence?
I prefer Lewis at 1-4 personally, the demography Norwich South is amazingly good for Labour.
Just had a lovely young man ring my bell in Twickenham. Would I be voting for Theresa May? Yes I'll be voting Conservative. Would I like a reminder tomorrow? No thanks not necessary.
The layout of that post looks like a limerick.
I've just had a young man from Twickenham ...
etc etc
It's a postmodern limerick
Don't make me share my Ealing limerick
There was a young man from Leeds Who swallowed a packet of seeds Big tufts of grass Shot out of his arse And his cock was covered in weeds
- from David Niven's 1930s MGM screen test. Or so he claimed
Said Tebbit, I don't understand 'em, If a work seeking Tyke, Has no luck on a bike, He'll double his chance on tandem.
If there is to be upset,a Labour win in Plymouth Sutton and Devonport has been backed to 13-8 with WH but remains at 3-1 in 2 places.Unpopular Tory MP and good local Labour candidate and Lord Owen's endorsement helps.This is where the postal votes have gone missing.Coincidence?
anyone know what the latest is on the missing votes?
The YouGov model national VI hasn't shifted all week, yet there has been a move towards both Labour and LibDem (and fluctuations for the SNP) in terms of seats. This suggests that at local level YG is picking up evidence of a late trend towards voting tactically against the Tories.
There was a young vicar from Salisbury whose manners were quite halisbury-scalisbury. He went around Hampshire without any pampshire 'til his bishop compelled him to walisbury.
The YouGov model national VI hasn't shifted all week, yet there has been a move towards both Labour and LibDem (and fluctuations for the SNP) in terms of seats. This suggests that at local level YG is picking up evidence of a late trend towards voting tactically against the Tories.
At least they are standing by their decision to be monstrously lonely in their success - or monstrously lonely as they get laughed out of the industry.....
Together with Survation, could be 2 drunks holding each other up on Friday, or the rest of us are all up shit creek as we moved into Venezuela without the sunshine overnight
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
Link? Or just feeble trolling?
Several Tory commenters here have "explained" that jihadists are in fact "extreme" Muslims and that the core problem is the character or present character of Islam. I am willing to concede that not all Tories think that way, but many certainly do.
And they are right. Try learning something about Islam before flaunting your right-onness about everything. Starter question: why do you think their is a ready-made word for jihad in the Arabic language? What is its primary meaning? And how far back has it had the secondary meaning of killing infidels for Allah?
Brainwashing alert - Not once has the Tory ad left the right hand side of my facebook. Not for a single minute, adblock doesn't stop it either.
Do you think facebook will have an impact this election? My timeline is 90% often surprising friends posting Labour videos with high numbers of likes, 9% normies going about their daily life, and 1% brave Tories with one like total. The last will be happier than the first on Friday.
There was a lot of stories after 2015 that Messina and his gang had made huge use of facebook and big data to target messages and campaigning. Not heard nearly so much about it this time but in 2015 most of the stories came out after the polls had closed. AIUI the Tories spent serious money on this last time out.
There was polling on this a couple of weeks ago. Something like 45% had seen something on Facebook from Labour, 40% from the Tories, and smaller non-trivial numbers for the other parties. I'm not sure that the question was understood though - might be just people counting times a friend has said somethig. Certainly Labour have spent more on FB this time - there are a lot of social media-savvy people in the team, which there frankly weren't in 2015 when my volunteers delivered no fewer than 8 print leafets, to increasing exasperation from volunteers and voters alike.
IANAE, not even on facebook, but as I understood it they were using the data on FB and elsewhere to target messages rather than just posting stuff. Presumably using these clever algorithm thingies to work out what particular message was going to work or be most persuasive.
With all the talk about Gove earlier, it is interesting to note that the man himself had a comment piece in the Telegraph today, where he was praising May's record as home secretary.
Well, if he pays that much tax, he's an evil rich bastard and properly we should all hate him.
We would all of course like to know at what point a hard working family, WWC, aspirational C2DE person who works hard, is successful, and flourishes, thereby becomes a filthy capitalist pig and rightly hated by Lab?
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
Link? Or just feeble trolling?
Several Tory commenters here have "explained" that jihadists are in fact "extreme" Muslims and that the core problem is the character or present character of Islam. I am willing to concede that not all Tories think that way, but many certainly do.
And they are right. Try learning something about Islam before flaunting your right-onness about everything. Starter question: why do you think their is a ready-made word for jihad in the Arabic language? What is its primary meaning? And how far back has it had the secondary meaning of killing infidels for Allah?
There's without any question a core hatred of non-Muslims within Islam. Hatred of the west is preached regularly in British mosques and I have some moderate Muslim friends who refuse to attend any longer as they are sick and tired of the support for Jihadists.
These YouGov and Survation polls simply don't add up – the mood music is very bad for Labour.
Either Labour have executed the most elegant and expertly delivered reverse-ramping GOTV operation in British political history, or YG and Survation are cannon fodder pollsters.
I suspect the latter is the case and Labour, YouGov and Survation are screwed.
Interesting listening to Corbyn. The policy he seems most proud of is the pupil arts premium allowing all kids to learn an instrument. I've heard him talk about that more than anything. I wonder if he regrets the manifesto isn't as radical as he'd have liked?
The YouGov model national VI hasn't shifted all week, yet there has been a move towards both Labour and LibDem (and fluctuations for the SNP) in terms of seats. This suggests that at local level YG is picking up evidence of a late trend towards voting tactically against the Tories.
There's some shifting around both ways but slightly more away from the Tories. As you say, tactical voting is the obvious explanation.
I know everyone is expecting a lot of differential swing, but seriously:
If Con lose Cities of London & Westminster OR Clwyd West OR Preseli Pembroke then surely there is no way they could possibly get a majority.
Is there any precedent for differential swing on such a massive scale?
There is a different factor at play here. Conservative Remainers who are disgusted by the Cons, blame them for the EURef and Brexit, and will not be voting for them tomorrow.
Such types are generally to be found in the metropolitan areas, specifically London.
These YouGov and Survation polls simply don't add up – the mood music is very bad for Labour.
Either Labour have executed the most elegant and expertly delivered reverse-ramping GOTV operation in British political history, or YG and Survation are cannon fodder pollsters.
I suspect the latter is the case and Labour, YouGov and Survation are screwed.
Latest YouGov there has Canterbury as leaning Labour. Still available at 20/1 and 25/1 in places.
I wonder why none of the posters who used to breathlessly post Breibart's readership figures and ad placements haven't done so over the last few months?
These YouGov and Survation polls simply don't add up – the mood music is very bad for Labour.
Either Labour have executed the most elegant and expertly delivered reverse-ramping GOTV operation in British political history, or YG and Survation are cannon fodder pollsters.
I suspect the latter is the case and Labour, YouGov and Survation are screwed.
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
Link? Or just feeble trolling?
Several Tory commenters here have "explained" that jihadists are in fact "extreme" Muslims and that the core problem is the character or present character of Islam. I am willing to concede that not all Tories think that way, but many certainly do.
And they are right. Try learning something about Islam before flaunting your right-onness about everything. Starter question: why do you think their is a ready-made word for jihad in the Arabic language? What is its primary meaning? And how far back has it had the secondary meaning of killing infidels for Allah?
You ill-mannered sod! "Try learning something" and "starter question" indeed. With a semantic argument too. Had a look at the Book of Revelations recently? Or ideas of the apocalypse or end of times in other religious books?
It might be, some people there are rich enough to vote for Labour's madness I guess.
What I do find rather mad is the unstated supposition that a Labour government whose leadership greatly admires actual and former socialist regimes around the world that rely on the apparatus of state to repress democratic opposition; which has long associated with terrorist organisations which use the bomb rather than the ballot box; which would also have a Chancellor who has called explicitly for the "street politics" of mob rule to mobilise; and which harbours a number of close advisers from various Stalinist and other Communist political cultures, could easily be removed from office by electoral defeat in 2022 if it won tomorrow?
Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
Could it be something as simple as the model not being able to distinguish between Arabs in Mayfair and Bangladeshis in Bow and just run on some raw demographics ?
These YouGov and Survation polls simply don't add up – the mood music is very bad for Labour.
Either Labour have executed the most elegant and expertly delivered reverse-ramping GOTV operation in British political history, or YG and Survation are cannon fodder pollsters.
I suspect the latter is the case and Labour, YouGov and Survation are screwed.
Is a possible explanation that those polls are right but that Labour voters will just not turn out tomorrow?
That is more or less what happened to Major's vote between 1992 and 1997, wasn't it?
It might be, some people there are rich enough to vote for Labour's madness I guess.
What I do find rather mad is the unstated supposition that a Labour government whose leadership greatly admires actual and former socialist regimes around the world that rely on the apparatus of state to repress democratic opposition; which has long associated with terrorist organisations which use the bomb rather than the ballot box; which would also have a Chancellor who has called explicitly for the "street politics" of mob rule to mobilise; and which harbours a number of close advisers from various Stalinist and other Communist political cultures, could easily be removed from office by electoral defeat in 2022 if it won tomorrow?
Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
It might be, some people there are rich enough to vote for Labour's madness I guess.
What I do find rather mad is the unstated supposition that a Labour government whose leadership greatly admires actual and former socialist regimes around the world that rely on the apparatus of state to repress democratic opposition; which has long associated with terrorist organisations which use the bomb rather than the ballot box; which would also have a Chancellor who has called explicitly for the "street politics" of mob rule to mobilise; and which harbours a number of close advisers from various Stalinist and other Communist political cultures, could easily be removed from office by electoral defeat in 2022 if it won tomorrow?
Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
Because this is Britain. We would even survive Corbyn. Poorer, more ragged and divided perhaps but we would survive.
These YouGov and Survation polls simply don't add up – the mood music is very bad for Labour.
Either Labour have executed the most elegant and expertly delivered reverse-ramping GOTV operation in British political history, or YG and Survation are cannon fodder pollsters.
I suspect the latter is the case and Labour, YouGov and Survation are screwed.
Latest YouGov there has Canterbury as leaning Labour. Still available at 20/1 and 25/1 in places.
Tory since 1879 !
I think it is more like a 100-1 Lab shot personally.
With all the talk about Gove earlier, it is interesting to note that the man himself had a comment piece in the Telegraph today, where he was praising May's record as home secretary.
A record he will try to emulate starting from Friday. Actually I think it's possible that he may be appointed to Justice with Truss moving to Education.
These YouGov and Survation polls simply don't add up – the mood music is very bad for Labour.
Either Labour have executed the most elegant and expertly delivered reverse-ramping GOTV operation in British political history, or YG and Survation are cannon fodder pollsters.
I suspect the latter is the case and Labour, YouGov and Survation are screwed.
In less than 32 hours we will know. Gulp.
I should relax, David, if I were you. Labour are good at expectations management but not THIS good!
Betfair Majority just moved within last minute - towards Con.
New info?
I expected the direction to move towards Labour until polling day but it stalled around Friday and has since shown small movement in the Conservatives favour. I do think there is now more information than we had a few days ago and that is leading to confidence in us PB types who may have waited until the last day before placing their cash.
There is definitely a way forward if both sides of Labour want it. Corbyn has surprised me and many others with his campaigning style - and he has clearly demonstrated that a positive, redistributive message can be successful (even if the Labour manifesto itself is not that redistributive). He has also taught all of us not to worry about the right wing press - something that has really held Labour back in the past. However, what is also clear is that for the Labour message to really get through, it has to be delivered by someone who is seen as strong on security and patriotism. And this is where Corbyn falls down, as do McDonnell, Abbott and others: their baggage, accumulated over many years, is undoubtedly off-putting to voters who value patriotism and prioritise security. So, a Labour leader who is strong on defence and comfortable with the Union Jack would have huge freedom to pitch the left-wing policies that so matter to Labour members. I cannot believe that this does not form the basis of a way forward for the party.
I think that the positive spirit of the campaign has brought a lot of people on the different wings of the Labour movement togther in a way that seemed a bit unlikely some weeks ago. As a Corbynite I appreciate Southam's generous open-minedness and I think that the scenario he describes is quite possible. Similarly, the idea of a centrist split seems to have receded sharply.
Of course, it will be easier if we don't get stuffed tomorrow! (No, this isn't an admission of anything - I genuinely have little clue what's going to happen.)
I know everyone is expecting a lot of differential swing, but seriously:
If Con lose Cities of London & Westminster OR Clwyd West OR Preseli Pembroke then surely there is no way they could possibly get a majority.
Is there any precedent for differential swing on such a massive scale?
There is a different factor at play here. Conservative Remainers who are disgusted by the Cons, blame them for the EURef and Brexit, and will not be voting for them tomorrow.
Such types are generally to be found in the metropolitan areas, specifically London.
That has not happened before.
But it is also a bug in the way their model works - City is unusual in being Tory, middle class and a Remain. To bolster its unreliable local sample the model looks for middle class remainers in neighbouring seats, and finds them heavily Labour. You're right, I suspect, that the Tories will do less well in Remain-leaning seats, but nevertheless there is a difference between a middle class resident of City/Westminster and of most of the adjacent Inner North and Inner South or East London Boroughs that the model isn't picking up. You can see the same if you look at Kensington.
County of Cumbria Prediction: Carlisle Con hold maj 5,000 Pen and Border Con hold maj 18,000 Copeland Con gain (lab 2015, Con by election 2017) maj 3,500 Workington Con possible gain, margin of error either way Barrow Con gain 4,000 Westmorland can't call. Would love for a win, but don't have further info.
In 2009 the cons only had one seat in the county, on Friday they could possibly have all six.
The YouGov model national VI hasn't shifted all week, yet there has been a move towards both Labour and LibDem (and fluctuations for the SNP) in terms of seats. This suggests that at local level YG is picking up evidence of a late trend towards voting tactically against the Tories.
The YouGov model national VI hasn't shifted all week, yet there has been a move towards both Labour and LibDem (and fluctuations for the SNP) in terms of seats. This suggests that at local level YG is picking up evidence of a late trend towards voting tactically against the Tories.
Agreed there is a move in the politically engaged types who form online panels to make their vote count. Not sure how much we can rely on the model though
There is definitely a way forward if both sides of Labour want it. Corbyn has surprised me and many others with his campaigning style - and he has clearly demonstrated that a positive, redistributive message can be successful (even if the Labour manifesto itself is not that redistributive). He has also taught all of us not to worry about the right wing press - something that has really held Labour back in the past. However, what is also clear is that for the Labour message to really get through, it has to be delivered by someone who is seen as strong on security and patriotism. And this is where Corbyn falls down, as do McDonnell, Abbott and others: their baggage, accumulated over many years, is undoubtedly off-putting to voters who value patriotism and prioritise security. So, a Labour leader who is strong on defence and comfortable with the Union Jack would have huge freedom to pitch the left-wing policies that so matter to Labour members. I cannot believe that this does not form the basis of a way forward for the party.
I think that the positive spirit of the campaign has brought a lot of people on the different wings of the Labour movement togther in a way that seemed a bit unlikely some weeks ago. As a Corbynite I appreciate Southam's generous open-minedness and I think that the scenario he describes is quite possible. Similarly, the idea of a centrist split seems to have receded sharply.
Of course, it will be easier if we don't get stuffed tomorrow! (No, this isn't an admission of anything - I genuinely have little clue what's going to happen.)
Will you still be saying this about the press and manifesto if there is a Tory landside tomorrow?
There is definitely a way forward if both sides of Labour want it. Corbyn has surprised me and many others with his campaigning style - and he has clearly demonstrated that a positive, redistributive message can be successful (even if the Labour manifesto itself is not that redistributive). He has also taught all of us not to worry about the right wing press - something that has really held Labour back in the past. However, what is also clear is that for the Labour message to really get through, it has to be delivered by someone who is seen as strong on security and patriotism. And this is where Corbyn falls down, as do McDonnell, Abbott and others: their baggage, accumulated over many years, is undoubtedly off-putting to voters who value patriotism and prioritise security. So, a Labour leader who is strong on defence and comfortable with the Union Jack would have huge freedom to pitch the left-wing policies that so matter to Labour members. I cannot believe that this does not form the basis of a way forward for the party.
I think that the positive spirit of the campaign has brought a lot of people on the different wings of the Labour movement togther in a way that seemed a bit unlikely some weeks ago. As a Corbynite I appreciate Southam's generous open-minedness and I think that the scenario he describes is quite possible. Similarly, the idea of a centrist split seems to have receded sharply.
Of course, it will be easier if we don't get stuffed tomorrow! (No, this isn't an admission of anything - I genuinely have little clue what's going to happen.)
These YouGov and Survation polls simply don't add up – the mood music is very bad for Labour.
Either Labour have executed the most elegant and expertly delivered reverse-ramping GOTV operation in British political history, or YG and Survation are cannon fodder pollsters.
I suspect the latter is the case and Labour, YouGov and Survation are screwed.
Is a possible explanation that those polls are right but that Labour voters will just not turn out tomorrow?
That is more or less what happened to Major's vote between 1992 and 1997, wasn't it?
I think that's what the Conservatives consoled themselves was the explanation, (5 million stay at home Tories etc), hence going big on the save the pound stuff the next election, but it wasn't actually true. I think Lord Ashcroft did a report proving it.
County of Cumbria Prediction: Carlisle Con hold maj 5,000 Pen and Border Con hold maj 18,000 Copeland Con gain (lab 2015, Con by election 2017) maj 3,500 Workington Con possible gain, margin of error either way Barrow Con gain 4,000 Westmorland can't call. Would love for a win, but don't have further info.
In 2009 the cons only had one seat in the county, on Friday they could possibly have all six.
And Rory returned handsomely to Westminster. Time he was in the Cabinet.
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
Link? Or just feeble trolling?
Several Tory commenters here have "explained" that jihadists are in fact "extreme" Muslims and that the core problem is the character or present character of Islam. I am willing to concede that not all Tories think that way, but many certainly do.
And they are right. Try learning something about Islam before flaunting your right-onness about everything. Starter question: why do you think their is a ready-made word for jihad in the Arabic language? What is its primary meaning? And how far back has it had the secondary meaning of killing infidels for Allah?
You ill-mannered sod! "Try learning something" and "starter question" indeed. With a semantic argument too. Had a look at the Book of Revelations recently? Or ideas of the apocalypse or end of times in other religious books?
County of Cumbria Prediction: Carlisle Con hold maj 5,000 Pen and Border Con hold maj 18,000 Copeland Con gain (lab 2015, Con by election 2017) maj 3,500 Workington Con possible gain, margin of error either way Barrow Con gain 4,000 Westmorland can't call. Would love for a win, but don't have further info.
In 2009 the cons only had one seat in the county, on Friday they could possibly have all six.
And Rory returned handsomely to Westminster. Time he was in the Cabinet.
Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
Link? Or just feeble trolling?
Several Tory commenters here have "explained" that jihadists are in fact "extreme" Muslims and that the core problem is the character or present character of Islam. I am willing to concede that not all Tories think that way, but many certainly do.
You are not really up to date with current debates about the extent to which ISIS and the like represent a "real" strand of Islam are you?
Last nite I watched The Jihadis Next Door.
It is a fascinating programme and I strongly recommend it. If you cannot find the time, just take it from me they do not represent a 'real' strand of Islam. In fact one of the biggest takeaways from the programme is the hostility towards them from real Muslims, and their rejection by the Muslim community as a whole.
In fact we non-Muslims could learn a lot from the way real Muslims treat them. We are inclined to placate and pussyfoot around. Real Muslims smack into them head on, quite literally in some cases. Perhaps they are less inhibited by PC, but we could help more anyway by following their example and definitely by giving them greater credit for the efforts to confront them.
10 minutes ago this chap was jigging about on Bonhill Street holding a sign claiming that Islamists were doing the Lord's work (it seemed to be a Millennarian Christian take on the subject):
Prediction time. Conservative majority 92. Highlights of tomorrow night.The exit poll, Sunderland Central to tell us what the WWC think. Then Bolsover squeaky bum time for The Beast. Finally Moray when pompous Angus " is sent homeward tae think again"
It might be, some people there are rich enough to vote for Labour's madness I guess.
What I do find rather mad is the unstated supposition that a Labour government whose leadership greatly admires actual and former socialist regimes around the world that rely on the apparatus of state to repress democratic opposition; which has long associated with terrorist organisations which use the bomb rather than the ballot box; which would also have a Chancellor who has called explicitly for the "street politics" of mob rule to mobilise; and which harbours a number of close advisers from various Stalinist and other Communist political cultures, could easily be removed from office by electoral defeat in 2022 if it won tomorrow?
Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
Because this is Britain. We would even survive Corbyn. Poorer, more ragged and divided perhaps but we would survive.
I'm not so sure. We have lately heard demands, for the first time in my experience, that old people should be disenfranchised because they voted for Brexit and won't live to see the consequences.
McDonnell calls for riots whenever something he disapproves of occurs. Corbyn admires Venezuela and thugs generally. Why would he not use a majority to abolish general elections?
Nothing in Kinnock's or Brown's past suggested that they'd contemplate this. But Corbyn's? Really? He'd relinquish power just like that?
I know everyone is expecting a lot of differential swing, but seriously:
If Con lose Cities of London & Westminster OR Clwyd West OR Preseli Pembroke then surely there is no way they could possibly get a majority.
Is there any precedent for differential swing on such a massive scale?
There is a different factor at play here. Conservative Remainers who are disgusted by the Cons, blame them for the EURef and Brexit, and will not be voting for them tomorrow.
Such types are generally to be found in the metropolitan areas, specifically London.
That has not happened before.
But it is also a bug in the way their model works - City is unusual in being Tory, middle class and a Remain. To bolster its unreliable local sample the model looks for middle class remainers in neighbouring seats, and finds them heavily Labour. You're right, I suspect, that the Tories will do less well in Remain-leaning seats, but nevertheless there is a difference between a middle class resident of City/Westminster and of most of the adjacent Inner North and Inner South or East London Boroughs that the model isn't picking up. You can see the same if you look at Kensington.
Weren't most London seats remain? So there is no like-for-like as you say and that is likely to overstate Lab's vote, surely?
Interesting looking at the Lib Dem possibilities including a few not mentioned. They clearly have chances in Bath, Cambridge, Cheltenham, OxWAB, Kingston, Twickenham, Southwark, Colchester, East Dumbarton, Edinburgh West, Fife NE, Argyllshire and possibly Caithness. So if their vote is concentrating, then they certainly could come out in the high teens rather than the low single figures.
Quite a few of those look forlorn, but I would have thought Colchester is overly optimistic, with no UKIP standing this time.
Wasn't there somebody saying on here that there was no hope at all for the LibDems in Southwark?
Colchester will not go yellow if I am reading the runes here correctly
I know everyone is expecting a lot of differential swing, but seriously:
If Con lose Cities of London & Westminster OR Clwyd West OR Preseli Pembroke then surely there is no way they could possibly get a majority.
Is there any precedent for differential swing on such a massive scale?
There is a different factor at play here. Conservative Remainers who are disgusted by the Cons, blame them for the EURef and Brexit, and will not be voting for them tomorrow.
Such types are generally to be found in the metropolitan areas, specifically London.
That has not happened before.
But it is also a bug in the way their model works - City is unusual in being Tory, middle class and a Remain. To bolster its unreliable local sample the model looks for middle class remainers in neighbouring seats, and finds them heavily Labour. You're right, I suspect, that the Tories will do less well in Remain-leaning seats, but nevertheless there is a difference between a middle class resident of City/Westminster and of most of the adjacent Inner North and Inner South or East London Boroughs that the model isn't picking up. You can see the same if you look at Kensington.
The City of London has a tiny electorate. The bulk of the electorate is found in Westminster.
Before complacency sets in and we all dismiss YouGov and Survation... what if FB, Instagram and Twitter have become the most efficient GOTV motivators in history? If that were the case, then the youth voting surge could be real. So, come on curmudgeons (or those of you not wise enough to have voted already) get out the oldie vote and show those youngsters how to jive with Theresa!
Comments
Is this going to become another recurring modern myth?
"Na, na, na we're not listening".
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/theresa-may-touring-country-recycled-remain-bus/amp/
That is a genuine plea from an old Labour made good to stop his madness.
And they'd only just got the rid of the pong of panicky wee from its last outing.
I don't understand 'em,
If a work seeking Tyke,
Has no luck on a bike,
He'll double his chance on tandem.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
Very very brave.
There was a young vicar from Salisbury
whose manners were quite halisbury-scalisbury.
He went around Hampshire
without any pampshire
'til his bishop compelled him to walisbury.
If he leaves the country, where else are you going to find the money to pay those 2,703 nurses Mr Corbyn?
YG themselves say it's a model, not a seat forecaster.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/liberal-democrats-refusing-correct-false-13147901#ICID=sharebar_twitter
Print it.
Is it the magic £80k? Nick?
Islam currently has a massive problem.
https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/872424470455123969
If Con lose Cities of London & Westminster OR Clwyd West OR Preseli Pembroke then surely there is no way they could possibly get a majority.
Is there any precedent for differential swing on such a massive scale?
Either Labour have executed the most elegant and expertly delivered reverse-ramping GOTV operation in British political history, or YG and Survation are cannon fodder pollsters.
I suspect the latter is the case and Labour, YouGov and Survation are screwed.
Such types are generally to be found in the metropolitan areas, specifically London.
That has not happened before.
New info?
Just as a matter of interest, why does anyone assume that would happen?
That is more or less what happened to Major's vote between 1992 and 1997, wasn't it?
John McD - on World at One apparently.
He's as deluded as the kids...
I think it is more like a 100-1 Lab shot personally.
Of course, it will be easier if we don't get stuffed tomorrow!
Look at the damage "Diane is ill" has caused.
Carlisle Con hold maj 5,000
Pen and Border Con hold maj 18,000
Copeland Con gain (lab 2015, Con by election 2017) maj 3,500
Workington Con possible gain, margin of error either way
Barrow Con gain 4,000
Westmorland can't call. Would love for a win, but don't have further info.
In 2009 the cons only had one seat in the county, on Friday they could possibly have all six.
I agree with Nick!
It is a fascinating programme and I strongly recommend it. If you cannot find the time, just take it from me they do not represent a 'real' strand of Islam. In fact one of the biggest takeaways from the programme is the hostility towards them from real Muslims, and their rejection by the Muslim community as a whole.
In fact we non-Muslims could learn a lot from the way real Muslims treat them. We are inclined to placate and pussyfoot around. Real Muslims smack into them head on, quite literally in some cases. Perhaps they are less inhibited by PC, but we could help more anyway by following their example and definitely by giving them greater credit for the efforts to confront them.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-supreme-court-leprechaun-dances-outside_uk_584558f8e4b00b318b107536
I have absolutely no idea why.
Conservative majority 92.
Highlights of tomorrow night.The exit poll, Sunderland Central to tell us what the WWC think. Then Bolsover squeaky bum time for The Beast.
Finally Moray when pompous Angus " is sent homeward tae think again"
McDonnell calls for riots whenever something he disapproves of occurs. Corbyn admires Venezuela and thugs generally. Why would he not use a majority to abolish general elections?
Nothing in Kinnock's or Brown's past suggested that they'd contemplate this. But Corbyn's? Really? He'd relinquish power just like that?
So, come on curmudgeons (or those of you not wise enough to have voted already) get out the oldie vote and show those youngsters how to jive with Theresa!