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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Breaking the chain. Can the Lib Dems defy history?

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  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited June 2017

    97% of them do in fact.

    The other 3% of them don't make anything like enough to pay for everything to which Travel Junkie feels entitled. There is an upper limit to how much it is feasible for a state to spend, which is determined by how money its people have and how they will react if you take too much of it away.
    That's poo. Students in Scotland don't have to pay tuition fees and yet things still run and the motorways aren't getting potholed. The rich throughout Britain have got a lot richer in recent decades. If they and their filthy institutions such as the banks gave some of their ill-gotten spoils back, it would be easy for the government to fund tuition fees and mandatory student maintenance grants as they did in the 1970s. It could easily fund proper social care without charge for the elderly too. What's changed since then is the result of massive heists such as income tax cuts for the rich, inheritance tax cuts for the rich, privatisation, and normalisation of huge debt as soon as people turn 18. Reversing even a decade of two of robbery this redistribution of wealth to the extremely rich would easily pay for everything in the Labour manifesto. The only ones strutting around "entitled" are the rich.
  • And also unnecessary?
    Oh totally. But in NI if a voter plumped for the 'wrong' candidate from 'their side' and themmuns get in, the voter will attack everyone involved in politics for not telling them 'correctly' who to vote for. I don't get real abuse on the door from SDLP or even SF voters. It's DUPers who burn my ears and say I 'should be ashamed' of being a UUP man.

    If I had my toes held to the fire, I'd say SDLP hold but I genuinely wouldn't be surprised by any result between DUP/SF/SDLP/All.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    That would be the Lib Dems.
    Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.
    Didn't it rise last year?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    London forecast to be totally cloudy tomorrow, which must be unusual in June.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743?day=1
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Uh oh..

    @iainjwatson: Friends of Diane Abbott (not a euphemism for DA herself) say she was moved without consultation -not at her request
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited June 2017
    Deleted
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,086
    AndyJS said:

    London forecast to be totally cloudy tomorrow, which must be unusual in June.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743?day=1

    The weather was poor last June for EUref and turnout was high, the weather rarely makes much difference
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Very sad that the home secretary for 6 years who didn't have to face conservative members to leader has decreased police numbers resources as home secretary and now has increased terrorism and u-turned on many manifesto policies plus given no policies on key issues without details.

    Reward - pm.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677



    I have no problem with this - she's more than entitled to do so.

    Yes. I think that survivors of atrocities should get extra tolerance when they say what conclusions it's led them to (in the same way though somewhat less partisan, Jo Cox's widower has been pushing the sort of things she believed in). Of course it doesn't necessarily make them right but they deserve a decent hearing.
  • NorthCadbollNorthCadboll Posts: 332
    Mark how many council seats did the SCons gain in East Dunbartonshire? More than 2?

    In East Dunbarton the Lib Dems gained 2 council seats , how was that awful ?
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?

    I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    IanB2 said:

    Remarkable claim from the Survation guy that even rowing youth turnout back to 2015 levels only changes their forecast by a per cent or two

    His reputation is on the line as are others. Some polling companies will be in real trouble after tomorrow.

    For the first time I feel the narrative is changing and todays Evening Standard endorsing Theresa May and traducing labour policies by the IFS must have some traction in London.

    The movememt of the leaders, the reports of a confident Theresa May from the journalists travelling with her, the anecdotal evidence of a failing labour campaign that may have peaked too soon, and Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The restrictions tomorrow don't apply to websites like this. Is that right?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    jonny83 said:

    So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?

    I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.

    Sky hands down. Trasher is superior.
  • No.

    Go to Rochdale and have a look. It will be the last ever constituency to stop being Labour....

    I lived there for 12 years.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557

    That would be the Lib Dems.
    Pushing through a policy which the Tories explicitly ruled out during the 2010 GE campaign - but have been very eager to take credit for since.
    Remind me, what was the tax free allowance when the LibDems left the Coalition? And what is it now? How much have the Conservatives increased the amount you can earn since gaining a majority?

    The Conservatives are still the party that wants to take people out of tax.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    jonny83 said:

    So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?

    I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.

    Best place is here
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    JackW said:

    Oh dear ....

    They'll be tears before bedtime .... :smile:

    Hope not! I'm just taking the view that with only a few to go, we've not had a single poll (since god knows when) with the Tories not in the lead (however small) and I only need a majority of 2 to win on my bet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,086
    edited June 2017

    I don't think Nottingham South IS in play, frankly, but the Tories do. We shall see. I don't have personal experience from Gedling in this election but I gather from colleagues that Labour reckon they'll hold.
    Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North West, the region was solidly Leave last year but we shall see
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,118

    So, why the large divergence from other polls like comres and ICM? Tough being a pollster
    Sadly the guy was the ultimate pollster anorak and was incapable of giving any sort of clear explanation or of getting even near the point in the time allotted by Mr Neil. I doubt Survation will be sending him anywhere near a TV studio again, if they have any sense.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431

    His reputation is on the line as are others. Some polling companies will be in real trouble after tomorrow.

    For the first time I feel the narrative is changing and todays Evening Standard endorsing Theresa May and traducing labour policies by the IFS must have some traction in London.

    The movememt of the leaders, the reports of a confident Theresa May from the journalists travelling with her, the anecdotal evidence of a failing labour campaign that may have peaked too soon, and Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme
    Evening standard has always endorsed the Tories. They've never endorsed another party even for mayor.

    There represent the people that make ,80k a year.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Yes. I think that survivors of atrocities should get extra tolerance when they say what conclusions it's led them to (in the same way though somewhat less partisan, Jo Cox's widower has been pushing the sort of things she believed in). Of course it doesn't necessarily make them right but they deserve a decent hearing.
    exactly.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    midwinter said:

    Didn't it rise last year?
    The Tories aren't dumb - they're more than happy to take on policies from other parties when they're proven to be electorally successful.
  • Pulpstar said:

    I wouldn't mind Danczuk winning there, OK he's had a few issues but I think his work into the grooming scandal has almost broken him. I'd have a hard think about my vote there.
    I'm struggling to see Danczuk winning but it's his candidacy which makes me wonder if the Tories can come through the middle. Of course, a sitting MP can spring a surprise under a new label.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,751

    Betting Post

    Backed No Safety Car at 3 (Ladbrokes) for Canada. Checking Wikipedia, seems there's only been 2 of the last 7 races to feature one, and weather forecast is for it to be cloudy but dry.

    Looks good value - though I hate relying on this year's crop of youngsters not to put it in the wall...
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Anyone heard from Charlotte Church lately? No? Good.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Comres has the East Midlands showing the 3rd biggest pro Tory swing in England outside the North East and North West
    It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    jonny83 said:

    So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?

    I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.

    I’ll be flicking between the two, until I finally give up on Aunty’s sluggishness with results and constantly missing declarations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Mark how many council seats did the SCons gain in East Dunbartonshire? More than 2?

    I think Nicolson will hold on, he seems very affable and is a recognisable figure. He always knew it would be tough to keep the seat so my guess is he has worked alot harder than many of his colleagues.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    Remind me, what was the tax free allowance when the LibDems left the Coalition? And what is it now? How much have the Conservatives increased the amount you can earn since gaining a majority?

    The Conservatives are still the party that wants to take people out of tax.
    A lot higher than it would have been without the Lib Dems.
    To the tune of thousands.
    Have a read of the 2010 Tory manifesto and the 2010 Lib Dem one.
    And yes, when the Lib Dem policy proved to be both successful and popular, the Tories were eager to take credit for it and keep it going.
    Doesn't make it retrospectively their policy or idea, though. Rewriting history is not a good thing to do.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307

    Very sad that the home secretary for 6 years who didn't have to face conservative members to leader has decreased police numbers resources as home secretary and now has increased terrorism and u-turned on many manifesto policies plus given no policies on key issues without details.

    Reward - pm.

    Churchill's blundering as Chancellor in late '20s didn't stop him being made PM.
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    jonny83 said:

    So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?

    I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.

    ITV – Ozzy and Ed Balls. Should be a hoot!

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax

    Like
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Roger said:

    Just flicked through the last thread. The number of people waxing lyrical about Michael Gove makes me realise why so many were concerned by the dementia tax

    Property market crash looms.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    If Jack's ARSE is out this evening, I don't want to steal his thunder, so FWIW, my election forecast:

    Con 360
    Lab 215
    LD 6
    Grn 1
    UKIP 0
    SNP 47
    PC 3
    NI 18

    Con maj: 70

    Based on: 45/36/8/2/3/4.2/0.6 plus finger in the air adjustment.

    Betting wise, I have:
    LDs under 29
    Cons under 398
    Lab above 160
    Con victories in Swansea West 2/1, Tooting 5/4, Carshalton and Wallington 9/5
    Lab next leader: E. Thornberry 25/1, S. Kinnock 18/1, L. Nandy 14/1
    LD next leader: N. Clegg, A. Carmichael (both 16/1)

    And if anyone's interested in why I've chosen to vote the way I did two weeks ago by post, here it is:

    http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/face-up-or-run-away
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    The Tories aren't dumb - they're more than happy to take on policies from other parties when they're proven to be electorally successful.
    Lol. is all
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Prodicus said:

    Anyone heard from Charlotte Church lately? No? Good.

    Charlotte Church has been locked in a cupboard with Philip Hammond for the duration. At least I expect that's why we've not seen our esteemed Chancellor on the telly. Nothing to do with planned tax rises.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,483
    Mr. B, it was old man Button who did it last time. Also, VSC should help.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557
    AndyJS said:

    It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.
    Bolsover?

    (still can't see it, but....)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,177

    If Jack's ARSE is out this evening, I don't want to steal his thunder, so FWIW, my election forecast:

    Con 360
    Lab 215
    LD 6
    Grn 1
    UKIP 0
    SNP 47
    PC 3
    NI 18

    Con maj: 70

    Based on: 45/36/8/2/3/4.2/0.6 plus finger in the air adjustment.

    Betting wise, I have:
    LDs under 29
    Cons under 398
    Lab above 160
    Con victories in Swansea West 2/1, Tooting 5/4, Carshalton and Wallington 9/5
    Lab next leader: E. Thornberry 25/1, S. Kinnock 18/1, L. Nandy 14/1
    LD next leader: N. Clegg, A. Carmichael (both 16/1)

    And if anyone's interested in why I've chosen to vote the way I did two weeks ago by post, here it is:

    http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/face-up-or-run-away

    You think Clegg will hold Hallam?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    I lived there for 12 years.
    I have never lived there, but I have friends who do. Visiting is like time warping back to the 70s :D
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    jonny83 said:

    So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?

    I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.

    reason is they have people in over 300 counts (they use media studies students and lecturers)
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Pulpstar said:

    Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.

    She'll be the main challenger to Corbyn's leadership next week ..... no chance she's allowed the chance to shine now.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,324

    Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme

    How does less human rights = more security? They have no human rights in Iran and they've just had the fuck blown out of them.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    ITV – Ozzy and Ed Balls. Should be a hoot!

    Likely to mean I watch ITV this time (post DD & bongs) and only go to BBC during any adverts. Also avoids Jeremy Vine this way - yeehaw. The first 2 hours will be mainly waffle and 'too early to say' so rather hear that duo.

    Shame they couldn't make a late transfer bid for Prof Curtice though!
  • jonny83 said:

    So are you going to be watching Sky or BBC for election night?

    I usually flick between both channels but spent more time I reckon on Sky these past couple of elections as results feel like they come in quicker on there. I expect I will do the same again.

    Whatever they have on in Omagh Leisure Centre!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553

    Bolsover?

    (still can't see it, but....)
    Isn't Nottingham South packed full of students?
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Why would any Remain voter support the Lib Dems now? Has that ship not sailed?
    Weirdly, it would have made sense if UKIP had remained a force.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited June 2017
    British Muslim leaders have refused to say the traditional prayers at the funerals of the London Bridge murderers. The Muslim Council of Britain says that their acts "alienate them from any association with our community for whom the inviolability of every human life is the founding principle." In other words, they are saying that they do not recognise the murderers as martyrs or even as Muslims. They are saying they will go to hell.

    Any decent person will praise the MCB for doing the right thing. They are a credit not just to Islam but to Britain.

    Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,188
    Pulpstar said:

    Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.

    I very much doubt she would have agreed if asked. The number of senior backbenchers who were willing to say that they had no confidence in Corbyn as leader of his party is one of the many dogs that has not really barked in this campaign. They have stayed quiet and out of the way so that the blame falls where it belongs.

    It has made May's use or non use of her own cabinet, especially her Chancellor, even odder. She had the potential to contrast a united team with one in disarray and has chosen not to use it preferring a very Presidential approach.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    midwinter said:

    Lol. is all
    Nah, you have to give them credit for it. They've pinched half of Miliband's manifesto as well - but I'm not convinced that was quite as popular, to be fair.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Rochdale was a little dem seat 10 years ago.

    Stop trying to create a narrative
    Who me? I only do narratives on shoes - ask around. It is true I assure you.... I am PB's leading shoe specialist, especially on slingbacks and wedges.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,086
    AndyJS said:

    It'll probably be concentrated outside the Nottingham/Leicester metropolitan areas. Mansfield, Ashfield, etc.
    Probably but Gedling was also a clear Leave win last year, Nottingham a narrow Leave wib
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Hammond is out and about in Kingston.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    edited June 2017

    Isn't Nottingham South packed full of students?
    It is during term time. I assume they are not there now as the one person I know at Nottingham is home.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Here's my prediction:

    Con 355
    Lab 218
    LD 8
    PC 3
    SNP 46
    UKIP 0
    Other 19

    Majority 60

    To feed my UNS model, I'm using Hanretty's estimates for England and the latest individual Scottish and Welsh polls for Scotland and Wales.

    I'm making a profit on the seat spreads up to 125 but hopefully by then some of my long-punts in individual constituencies will start to come through.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256

    Whatever they have on in Omagh Leisure Centre!
    Omagh???? I think I drove through it once.

    Well, it is an upgrade from Rochdale in any case :D
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited June 2017
    Ex Labour peer with 5.3m followers on twitter counters the luvvies


    Lord Sugar‏Verified account @Lord_Sugar 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    If you admire or trust me as an east end boy done good by honest hard graft .I sincetely beg or advise you not to vote for Corbyn #trustme
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Why would any Remain voter support the Lib Dems now? Has that ship not sailed?
    They're offering another referendum on the final deal.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Scott_P said:

    Uh oh..

    @iainjwatson: Friends of Diane Abbott (not a euphemism for DA herself) say she was moved without consultation -not at her request

    Well there's a surprise.

    It's a silly thing to do anyway, they've simply drawn even more attention to her.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Pulpstar said:

    Hammond is out and about in Kingston.

    Buying popcorn?

  • ***** Betting Post *****

    Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%.
    Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage.
    Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!)
    As ever DYOR.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Cyan said:

    British Muslim leaders have refused to say the traditional prayers at the funerals of the London Bridge murderers. The Muslim Council of Britain says that their acts "alienate them from any association with our community for whom the inviolability of every human life is the founding principle." In other words, they are saying that they do not recognise the murderers as martyrs or even as Muslims. They are saying they will go to hell.

    :+1::+1::+1:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,751

    Mr. B, it was old man Button who did it last time. Also, VSC should help.

    I know, Mr.D. Just makes it all the more galling.
    As I said, good odds... but not enough to banish my mental image of Stroll devaluing the Wall of Champions with his carbon fibre.
  • Labour vote share with PP 25-30 per cent =6/1.
    20-25 per cent =33/1
    Just saying
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,086
    Scott_P said:
    Tories now on 62% with Leave voters, 2% up on last week, Labour also slightly increased its lead with Remain voters but Tories doing better with Remain voters than Labour are with Leave voters. Suggests carnage for Labour in the North, the Midlands and Wales but Labour holding its own in London and maybe picking up a few Tory seats in the South
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/07/maps-charts-showing-state-play-eve-general-election/
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,483
    Mr. B, it was galling. I've rarely been so irritated a bet didn't come off, because it was entirely unnecessary. Mistakes and bad luck happen, but when a driver's just stupid it's irksome.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Pulpstar said:

    Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.

    She may have been approached by team Corbyn, but declined. – Wouldn’t be the first time.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,307
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235


    ***** Betting Post *****

    Sporting Index have a series of "Election Specials", one of which relates to the UK Turnout Percentage where the current spread is 63.0% - 63.5%. In 2015 the turnout was 66.4% and in 2010 it was 65.1%.
    Since we are constantly being told that the Yoof are set to turn out like never before to vote big time for Corbyn, it seems reasonable to assume that turnout overall will be similar to if not in excess of that for the previous two elections. Indeed the traditional bookies appear to be of this view, with Hills, for example, offering odds of 9/4 against turnout being < 63% and 1/3 on it exceeding that percentage.
    Accordingly a BUY of Turnout % at 63.5% appears to offer real value for those prepared to undertake the additional financial exposure involved in spread-betting. It might be worth checking the national weather forecast for tomorrow before taking the plunge (no pun intended!)
    As ever DYOR.

    Turnout sub 63% @ 9-4 and buying 63.5%+ on the spreads is a decent combo.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800

    Property market crash looms.
    Been looming for a while now, it will get blamed on Brexit but in reality is the normal cycle
  • nico777nico777 Posts: 7

    His reputation is on the line as are others. Some polling companies will be in real trouble after tomorrow.

    For the first time I feel the narrative is changing and todays Evening Standard endorsing Theresa May and traducing labour policies by the IFS must have some traction in London.

    The movememt of the leaders, the reports of a confident Theresa May from the journalists travelling with her, the anecdotal evidence of a failing labour campaign that may have peaked too soon, and Corbyn opposing derogation of human rights act plays into his soft on security theme
    So a former Tory Chancellor endorsing his own party is going to sway votes! Lol The Tories are going to do badly in a London because of more police cuts to come . Vote Tory to be less safe is hardly going to be a vote winner.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @martinboon: @ICMResearch has preliminary @guardian final poll data but we continue to poll through this evening. Might be tonight; might be tomorrow.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Scott_P said:
    They had a chance to deal with the unfair imbalance between the percentage vote and the number of seats

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenkins_Commission_(UK)

    It was commissioned 20 years ago.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Scott_P said:

    @martinboon: @ICMResearch has preliminary @guardian final poll data but we continue to poll through this evening. Might be tonight; might be tomorrow.

    Oh no! :(
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    dr_spyn said:
    As I reported previously, in the Citizenship class at my daughter's school and their mock GE, no one (0) wanted to be Labour - it was all Tory, Lib Dem or Greens I think (not sure re kippers - didn't ask). One class mate on Jeremy Corbyn asked if he was the homeless one.

    [caveat - this is Bucks]
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Rough start for Halep in the quarters, French Open.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    Not sure, but if he does, 16/1's not a bad price... only small £s tho.

    You think Clegg will hold Hallam?

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    Been looming for a while now, it will get blamed on Brexit but in reality is the normal cycle
    It'll crash more if Corbyn and his loons get in.
  • There has been a further move towards the Tories on the GE Seats spread markets this morning. In the case of IG, they go 367 - 373 (i.e. 370 mid point) on the Blue Team, which is about 10 seats higher than they were offering last night. The other two firms are a couple of seats lower than this.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,690

    Best place is here
    Hear hear! PB was miles ahead of the TV on Referendum Night.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,343
    Pulpstar said:

    Astonished that Labour didn't take the opportunity to have Cooper stand in for Diane Abbott, instead of some total no-mark. It could have got a few waverers back on board.

    Perhaps they did..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526

    Ex Labour peer with 5.3m followers on twitter counters the luvvies


    Lord Sugar‏Verified account @Lord_Sugar 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    If you admire or trust me as an east end boy done good by honest hard graft .I sincetely beg or advise you not to vote for Corbyn #trustme

    Good on him.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    Cyan said:

    British Muslim leaders have refused to say the traditional prayers at the funerals of the London Bridge murderers. The Muslim Council of Britain says that their acts "alienate them from any association with our community for whom the inviolability of every human life is the founding principle." In other words, they are saying that they do not recognise the murderers as martyrs or even as Muslims. They are saying they will go to hell.

    Any decent person will praise the MCB for doing the right thing. They are a credit not just to Islam but to Britain.

    Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.

    Well done them. This is what I've been calling for - http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/issue-the-fatwa - but don't tar "Tories' with your bigoted brush.
  • llefllef Posts: 301

    You think Clegg will hold Hallam?
    why do you think swansea west will fall?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674

    As I reported previously, in the Citizenship class at my daughter's school and their mock GE, no one (0) wanted to be Labour - it was all Tory, Lib Dem or Greens I think (not sure re kippers - didn't ask). One class mate on Jeremy Corbyn asked if he was the homeless one.

    [caveat - this is Bucks]
    Nobody wanted to vote for Bercow?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Scott_P said:

    @martinboon: @ICMResearch has preliminary @guardian final poll data but we continue to poll through this evening. Might be tonight; might be tomorrow.

    Didn't they publish one version in 2015 and then revise it (not very much) a bit later?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Good on him.
    had another go to make it stronger

    https://twitter.com/Lord_Sugar/status/872428328824827904
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Hear hear! PB was miles ahead of the TV on Referendum Night.
    That was mainly due to the Hanretty 50/50 spreadsheet..
    I made a decent profit thanks to that.
    Therefore i am.backing Hanretty to get it right again.
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233

    She may have been approached by team Corbyn, but declined. – Wouldn’t be the first time.
    "The ship's going down. We have an empty berth. Would you care to fill it?"
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    dr_spyn said:

    What's wrong with the word penis?

    twitter.com/UKLabour/status/872360985897558016

    That is a bit of a creepy advert - not because of the "winky" - but because of the emotional blackmail angle.

    Yeeuuch!
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Take 9-2 on Labour in Weaver Vale.Us Corbynites like a bet.Price could collapse.Backed down to 4-1 in 2 places.An opportunity for a nice arb.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Cyan said:


    Tories of course will "explain", from their colonialist supposed understanding of the "swarthy mind", that aktchewally the jihadist murderers were operating wholly within "Muslim culture", albeit in an "extreme" part of it, in the hope of pronging more "virgins" than a Tory "financial services provider" on a jolly in Riyadh could get through in a month.

    Link? Or just feeble trolling?
This discussion has been closed.