politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you have system like first past the post then don’t get ups
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is it worth me getting my €'s for my holiday now or after June 8th?0
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Yougov has Plymouth Sutton for Lab.MarqueeMark said:
I'd assumed the Wales numbers were wrong and transposed. Very bad for Labour.PaulM said:HYUFD said:Regional figures
Comres vs 2015
North East
Tories 38% +13%
Labour 49% +2%
LD 8% -1%
North West
Tories 45% +14%
Labour 44% -1%
LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48% +16%
Labour 43% +4%
LD 4% -3%
West Midlands
Tories 50% +9%
Labour 37% +5%
LD 4% -2%
East Midlands
Tories 56% +13%
Labour 30% -2%
LD 9% +4%
East
Tories 56% +7%
Labour 29% +7%
LD 8% n/c
London
Tories 39% +4%
Labour 46%+2%
LD 6% -2%
South East
Tories 51% n/c
Labour 28% +10%
LD 12% +3%
South West
Tories 51% +5%
Labour 30% +13%
LD 16% +1%
Scotland
Tories 32% +17%
Labour 15% -9%
SNP 40% -10%
LD 9% +2%
Wales
Tories 43% +16%
Labour 32% -5%
LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North
Labour's position in the SW looks like a lot of the LibDems tactical voting unwinding. On the face of it, 2 Plymouth seats go Labour - but maybe not, as only 2,000 LD votes in 2015 in Plymouth Sutton and Devonport to unwind and only 1,200 in Moor View
Cambourne and Redruth is 41 at Bet365. just the place for red kippers to go all Corbyn.
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Yes the 15% UKIP-to-Lab movements recorded a couple of weeks ago were notable for being higher than the Lab/Tory traffic.KentRising said:
They also like nationalisation and an insurgent outsider...isam said:
Yeah the anti immigration Little Englanders were just waiting for a multi culti loving IRA supporter to come alongsurbiton said:
I am convinced despite the received wisdom here on PB, that many UKIPers are returning to Labour.another_richard said:
Subsamples are often likely to produce strange results - the Conservatives are not on 43% in Wales for example.PaulM said:HYUFD said:Regional figures
Comres vs 2015
North East
Tories 38% +13%
Labour 49% +2%
LD 8% -1%
North West
Tories 45% +14%
Labour 44% -1%
LD 7% n/c
Yorkshire and Humber
Tories 48% +16%
Labour 43% +4%
LD 4% -3%
West Midlands
Tories 50% +9%
Labour 37% +5%
LD 4% -2%
East Midlands
Tories 56% +13%
Labour 30% -2%
LD 9% +4%
East
Tories 56% +7%
Labour 29% +7%
LD 8% n/c
London
Tories 39% +4%
Labour 46%+2%
LD 6% -2%
South East
Tories 51% n/c
Labour 28% +10%
LD 12% +3%
South West
Tories 51% +5%
Labour 30% +13%
LD 16% +1%
Scotland
Tories 32% +17%
Labour 15% -9%
SNP 40% -10%
LD 9% +2%
Wales
Tories 43% +16%
Labour 32% -5%
LD 6% n/c
I just put in the change since 2015. Find it hard to believe that the Tories could be flat in the South East and up mid teens in the North
But I wouldn't underestimate how much of the UKIP vote in southern England was formerly Labour or LibDem and anti-Conservative and is now moving to Labour for that reason.
It is very reminiscent of Black voters in 2008 leaving Hillary for Obama once they began to realise the he could actually win.0 -
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Clearly, they don't read PB.calum said:0 -
Here's a thought. In the old days of phone polling, the polls used to get done over a period of several days. This one is done "in a morning". I wonder if the dramatically reduced polling periods these days may have their own effects on polling outcomes, and making them ever more "self selecting, first come first serve".KentRising said:
Lumping on a Labour minority.SeanT said:0 -
ET go home banner, Hughes, what a waste of money sung all night.Saltire said:
Rather envious of people a little older than myself as I was too young to go on my own. Pretty good Barca team back then with Hughes and Lineker up front and El Tel as the manager.DavidL said:
I was there when we beat Barca home and away. And in both legs of the EUFA Cup final. And when we beat Borussia 5-0. Those were the days.Saltire said:
I knew that you were a decent bloke, the fact that you are a fellow Arab proves it!DavidL said:
My team cannot even reach the giddy heights of the SPL having lost in the playoff. Its painful.initforthemoney said:
what about the scottish premiership?DavidL said:Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.
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Faisal IslamVerified account
@faisalislam
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Same poll says Corbyn "won" the QT debate - ie among the 72% who watched, 36% said it made them more likely to vote Labour, 24% less (+12)
72% of the Survation poll watched QT...
What was it some people on here have been saying about polls polling only the politically engaged?
Magnifico Giganticus0 -
Wasn't viewing figures about 4 million ?calum said:
Whatever it was 72% of voters did not watch it.
That's a major sampling error.
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Less than 10% of the population watched the QT debate live on BBC1.
Even adding in those who saw clips on news etc the total number could not be more than about 25% maximum.
So if 72% claim to have watched it there is a massive problem.0 -
Lòooooool We KNOW this is wrong.The_Mule said:
Faisal IslamVerified account
@faisalislam
Following
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Same poll says Corbyn "won" the QT debate - ie among the 72% who watched, 36% said it made them more likely to vote Labour, 24% less (+12)
72% of the Survation poll watched QT...
What was it some people on here have been saying about polls polling only the politically engaged?
Magnifico Giganticus0 -
The Survation poll is saying 72% of their sample watched the QT debate. 72% of this country/electorate did not watch the debate. We know this because of the viewing figures it got.RochdalePioneers said:Enjoying the popcorn everyone?
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win
Calm down.0 -
Lol poll chaos! WTF is going on???0
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Just noticed BTsport are showing Juve-Real for free. Why didn't someone say?0
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If Corbyn denies May a bigger majority, this will be the greatest campaign in the history of British politics.
I just don't see it. But hey ho, at least it's not dull.0 -
Good spot.another_richard said:
Wasn't viewing figures about 4 million ?calum said:
Whatever it was 72% of voters did not watch it.
That's a major sampling error.0 -
I can't read it any other way. Among the 72% that watched. I thought it might have been the sum of more and less, but that only gets to 60, so it isn't a DK thing.SeanT said:0 -
Some intense personal grooming for the week ahead?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Where the hell is John Curtice during this psephological omnishambles?
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And mess up the disheveled academic look? Never!Theuniondivvie said:
Some intense personal grooming for the week ahead?AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Where the hell is John Curtice during this psephological omnishambles?
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Survation!!!!!!!!!
#MegaPollingSaturday0 -
My guess is that YouGov continues to show a narrowing, Conservative lead down to something like 8 with ICM.
And I will be worried yet again.0 -
Young people matter, unless they disagree with me and Marxist views. Then they don't matter.isam said:Hateful creature
https://twitter.com/johnmcdonnellmp/status/868892676627861504
That Survation poll is garbage - 72% LOL BYE.0 -
Working on the exit pollAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Where the hell is John Curtice during this psephological omnishambles?
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They are also showing it on Youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycbboXDO2kAalex. said:Just noticed BTsport are showing Juve-Real for free. Why didn't someone say?
Magnifico Giganticus0 -
It is only June 3rd. We already can announce the silliest post of the year. It is the Meejia's fault !Cosmic said:I've been thinking about all the talk of Corbyn having a great campaign and May having a crap one. Is this really the case?
We pretty much knew what may was like as soon as she took over as PM. Awkward interviews, overruling cabinet ministers, unclear/poorly leaked policies like grammar schools and an actual U-turn on the business rates.
Despite this, she remained fairly popular with the public, with leads from 10-25%. What's more, the real results, such as the local elections and the by-election gain confirmed that this was real.
On the other hand, Corbyn was always fairly confident giving speeches and debating, because he's been doing it for so long, and he believes in most of what he is selling. The contents of the manifesto, i.e. poorly costed giveaways, had always been one of his selling points.
So if the campaigns haven't really given us any new information, why have the polls (and possibly voting behaviour) changed so much?
In my opinion, it's the media. The Tories were on course for a crushing victory and remained in that position for about a month. This makes for extremely boring media coverage, so all but the most right-wing media have been much more critical of May (and to a lesser extent, more generous to Corbyn). The fact that impartiality rules kick in for TV coverage also affects things.
So my point is that we're seeing the same May and Corbyn that we did for months before with the big leads, but now the media is trying to make things more interesting with much more May scrutiny. For example, the amount of coverage given to 'Garden tax' vs. 'Dementia tax'.0 -
Before the election is underway?TheScreamingEagles said:
Working on the exit pollAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Where the hell is John Curtice during this psephological omnishambles?
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@Ashley_J_Kirk: NEW ORB #GeneralElection2017 poll:
Conservatives' lead nudges up to 9 points.
Con 45% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
#GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/Isc3bDuVvu0 -
6% swing in a matter of days when both reds and blues have had a tricky week? Forgive my skepticism. If the survation poll suggests 72% of those polled watched QT then clearly we have a very poor representative sample, I would also think the general consensus was a narrow May QT victory rather than a clear Corbyn win.0
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Yes.The_Apocalypse said:These pollsters don't know shit anymore LOL. +6, +12, +1 leads for the Conservatives.
Weren't Survation the people telling us that 82% of 18-24-year-olds say that are certain to vote, when only 66% of us are registered (that we know of?)0 -
Put it this way, no political or polling nerd is going to bed early on Thursday nightJonathan said:If Corbyn denies May a bigger majority, this will be the greatest campaign in the history of British politics.
I just don't see it. But hey ho, at least it's not dull.0 -
AhhhhhScott_P said:@Ashley_J_Kirk: NEW ORB #GeneralElection2017 poll:
Conservatives' lead nudges up to 9 points.
Con 45% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
#GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/Isc3bDuVvu
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Done entirely this morning? That sounds, err, risky.SeanT said:0 -
PB Tories: pause your bed-wetting!0
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This is terrible. We're just a higher youth turnout away from PM Corbyn. Theresa has to do something to appease the young - reinstate that educational payment Dave scrapped and they all rioted over; a free copy of the Beano. Anything!0
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The 72% is seen or heard something about the debate. NOT 72% watched it0
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what. the. actual. fuck.Scott_P said:@Ashley_J_Kirk: NEW ORB #GeneralElection2017 poll:
Conservatives' lead nudges up to 9 points.
Con 45% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
#GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/Isc3bDuVvu0 -
Tory surge.Scott_P said:@Ashley_J_Kirk: NEW ORB #GeneralElection2017 poll:
Conservatives' lead nudges up to 9 points.
Con 45% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
#GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/Isc3bDuVvu0 -
They wouldn't anyway, even in 1997.TheScreamingEagles said:
Put it this way, no polling nerd is going to bed early on Thursday nightJonathan said:If Corbyn denies May a bigger majority, this will be the greatest campaign in the history of British politics.
I just don't see it. But hey ho, at least it's not dull.0 -
They are herding to 9%. I think that is where ICM will be ending at.Scott_P said:@Ashley_J_Kirk: NEW ORB #GeneralElection2017 poll:
Conservatives' lead nudges up to 9 points.
Con 45% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
#GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/Isc3bDuVvu0 -
Still, that's an awfully large figure.TheScreamingEagles said:The 72% is seen or heard something about the debate. NOT 72% watched it
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ORB gold standard! I think this is the closest to where we actually stand. Interestingly first poll in a long time with a move towards the blues.Scott_P said:@Ashley_J_Kirk: NEW ORB #GeneralElection2017 poll:
Conservatives' lead nudges up to 9 points.
Con 45% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
#GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/Isc3bDuVvu0 -
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAAHHHAScott_P said:@Ashley_J_Kirk: NEW ORB #GeneralElection2017 poll:
Conservatives' lead nudges up to 9 points.
Con 45% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
#GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/Isc3bDuVvu
@TheScreamingEagles That's still a sample which is way too politically engaged. Anyway, with the ORB poll here it's clear that this Survation poll is a huge outlier.0 -
ORB looks landslidey?????Scott_P said:@Ashley_J_Kirk: NEW ORB #GeneralElection2017 poll:
Conservatives' lead nudges up to 9 points.
Con 45% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
#GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/Isc3bDuVvu0 -
The only palace Jezza will be going to is when the Arsenal supporting LotO visits Crystal Palace.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Swiiinnnggggg baaaaccccckkkkkk.... *ahem*Brom said:
ORB gold standard! I think this is the closest to where we actually stand. Interestingly first poll in a long time with a move towards the blues.Scott_P said:@Ashley_J_Kirk: NEW ORB #GeneralElection2017 poll:
Conservatives' lead nudges up to 9 points.
Con 45% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
#GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/Isc3bDuVvu0 -
But it is under way 15% have already votedRobD said:
Before the election is underway?TheScreamingEagles said:
Working on the exit pollAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Where the hell is John Curtice during this psephological omnishambles?
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LAB UP 3 ... twitter ... lolScott_P said:@Ashley_J_Kirk: NEW ORB #GeneralElection2017 poll:
Conservatives' lead nudges up to 9 points.
Con 45% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
#GeneralElection pic.twitter.com/Isc3bDuVvu0 -
Correction from Faisal:
sorry correction 72% "had seen or heard something about the debate". my fault0 -
Mortimer said:
Has anyone heard anyone but a cynical opponent suggest that? Just spent the week at Olympia with asset-rich baby boomers. To a man (and woman!) they supported it.../blockquote>kle4 said:Perception perception perception. As Farron put it, May might be outside your house, sizing up your house right now!
You are forgetting, Mr Mortimer. Baby boomers are still young enough to think that dementia will never happen to them.... But on current figures, it will hit one in six of them....0 -
Good point, there will be surveys to measure postal votes.nichomar said:
But it is under way 15% have already votedRobD said:
Before the election is underway?TheScreamingEagles said:
Working on the exit pollAramintaMoonbeamQC said:Where the hell is John Curtice during this psephological omnishambles?
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Survation Scotland poll should be interesting !0
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Pollsters are guessing this one. What a joke.0
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ORB Gold Standard ! panic over (until Yougov)0
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Bath constituency
Told lib Dems are bleeding votes to labour. Tory hold0 -
Is that before or after weighting?The_Apocalypse said:
The Survation poll is saying 72% of their sample watched the QT debate. 72% of this country/electorate did not watch the debate. We know this because of the viewing figures it got.RochdalePioneers said:Enjoying the popcorn everyone?
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win
Calm down.0 -
I don't think they are saying that. I believe 72% are/were aware of what happened. Watched or heard about it.Brom said:6% swing in a matter of days when both reds and blues have had a tricky week? Forgive my skepticism. If the survation poll suggests 72% of those polled watched QT then clearly we have a very poor representative sample, I would also think the general consensus was a narrow May QT victory rather than a clear Corbyn win.
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They never advertise in advance either - I'm in the office, would have gone home had it been on the TV guide >:(alex. said:Just noticed BTsport are showing Juve-Real for free. Why didn't someone say?
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Gives Con 360, Lab217.GIN1138 said:
ORB looks landslidey?????
That's pretty much identical to all the current (non-yougov models) are suggesting:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#Predictions_one_week_before_the_vote0 -
Of course, with differential swings in different regions. Anything could happen.Barnesian said:
My EMA (exponential moving average) model now has Con maj at 38.Jonathan said:If Corbyn denies May a bigger majority, this will be the greatest campaign in the history of British politics.
I just don't see it. But hey ho, at least it's not dull.
Con 44% Lab 36%0 -
24 mins until YouGov
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After weighting. It's now that 72% had heard/seen the debate, which is still an incredibly politically engaged sample.Stereotomy said:
Is that before or after weighting?The_Apocalypse said:
The Survation poll is saying 72% of their sample watched the QT debate. 72% of this country/electorate did not watch the debate. We know this because of the viewing figures it got.RochdalePioneers said:Enjoying the popcorn everyone?
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win
Calm down.0 -
Aye but we had Luggie and Elephant Man. Oh and Eammon Bannon, a really capable player. God knows what he would have earned these days. The thing I remember most of those days was Hamish McAlpine conducting the choirs from pretty much the half way circle, so confident were United of keeping the ball.Saltire said:
Rather envious of people a little older than myself as I was too young to go on my own. Pretty good Barca team back then with Hughes and Lineker up front and El Tel as the manager.DavidL said:
I was there when we beat Barca home and away. And in both legs of the EUFA Cup final. And when we beat Borussia 5-0. Those were the days.Saltire said:
I knew that you were a decent bloke, the fact that you are a fellow Arab proves it!DavidL said:
My team cannot even reach the giddy heights of the SPL having lost in the playoff. Its painful.initforthemoney said:
what about the scottish premiership?DavidL said:Have to say so far this is a hell of a game. The EPL has a lot of catching up to do.
Damn. 2-1 Real.0 -
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I am calm. The Tories will probably win because no poll lead that big has ever been overturned that quickly. It almost certainly won't happen. But that it could happen, and that the Labour surge is either sweeping you away or a phantom is shitting you and PB Tories up and it's funny.The_Apocalypse said:
The Survation poll is saying 72% of their sample watched the QT debate. 72% of this country/electorate did not watch the debate. We know this because of the viewing figures it got.RochdalePioneers said:Enjoying the popcorn everyone?
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win
Calm down.
This should have been a coronation. May was so strong. Jeremy shot British soldiers in Ireland or something. A landslide if there ever was to be one. That pants are being trollied shows how much of an epic fail this Tory campaign has been.0 -
Whispering Oracle current prediction - Tory maj of 15-40, depending on the youth turnout.0
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It means that isam's theory that only the politically engaged do polls is correct.The_Apocalypse said:
The Survation poll is saying 72% of their sample watched the QT debate. 72% of this country/electorate did not watch the debate. We know this because of the viewing figures it got.RochdalePioneers said:Enjoying the popcorn everyone?
I am working very hard this week. Including conference and Black Tie dinner Friday up at the Crieff Hydro. Where I intend to get blootered celebrating the "shock" Labour win
Calm down.0 -
One takeaway from the Survation tables is a sharp gender divide. 34% of females will vote Conservative; 47% Labour. 46% of males will vote Conservative; 31% Labour.0
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That is interesting! More popcorn!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It was on all the media I encountered over the last couple of days.RobD said:
Still, that's an awfully large figure.TheScreamingEagles said:The 72% is seen or heard something about the debate. NOT 72% watched it
Maybe Radio 3 listeners were given a let off.0 -
@WikiGuido: Some talk Corbyn was being lined up for Marr tomorrow but Labour then decided to put McDonnell up instead. A bad Sunday story coming up...0
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You can if you don't think 72% of the country saw or heard about the debateAlistair said:0 -
ORB gold standard!!!!!!!!0
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From the bottom of my Litre of Bacardi she won.Brom said:6% swing in a matter of days when both reds and blues have had a tricky week? Forgive my skepticism. If the survation poll suggests 72% of those polled watched QT then clearly we have a very poor representative sample, I would also think the general consensus was a narrow May QT victory rather than a clear Corbyn win.
Now i am sober0 -
I went to the supermarket this morning. Popcorn was out of stock...0
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Asimov/Foundation fan? If so an even warmer welcome.The_Mule said:
Faisal IslamVerified account
@faisalislam
Following
More
Same poll says Corbyn "won" the QT debate - ie among the 72% who watched, 36% said it made them more likely to vote Labour, 24% less (+12)
72% of the Survation poll watched QT...
What was it some people on here have been saying about polls polling only the politically engaged?
Magnifico Giganticus0 -
Wish Depeche mode would play some hits! The polls are more exciting!0
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Well that makes more sense, but even 72% hearing about it sounds high to me.TheScreamingEagles said:The 72% is seen or heard something about the debate. NOT 72% watched it
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Spare a thought for the poor sod who has two write the Sunday morning thread.
He likes to write said thread between 9pm and 11pm on Saturday nights0
